You are on page 1of 3

Economic Research

Defiance Capital Management


Economic and Investment Research & Analysis

U.S. Economic Model Simplified Components

March 05, 2010 - 3 pages

Leonardo Cardoso – Managing Director


leocardoso@defiancecap.com
www.defiancecap.com
U.S. Economic Model Components

March 5, 2010 Economic Research

Definition: Our Economic Model is based on five sub-model with information about the overall
economic activity in the United States. Furthermore, the most influential indicators are ranked in
accordance with their influence on stocks and bonds.

Sub-models
•Health of the Consumers
•Employment Situation
•National Output and Inventories Conditions
•Housing and Construction Conditions
•Prices, Productivity and Wages Indicators

Rankings

Table 1: Economic Indicators Table 2: Economic Indicators


Most Sensitive to Stocks Most Sensitive to Bonds

Rank Indicator Rank Indicator


1 Employment Situation Report 1 Employment Situation Report
2 ISM Report - Manufacturing 2 Consumer Prices
3 Weekly Unemployment Claims 3 ISM Report – Manufacturing
4 Consumer Prices 4 Producer Prices
5 Producer Prices 5 Weekly Unemployment Claims
6 Retail Sales 6 Retail Sales
7 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment 7 Housing Starts
Surveys
8 Chicago PMI Report
8 Advance Report on Durable Goods
9 Industrial Production/Capacity
9 Industrial Production Utilization
10 GDP 10 GDP

Defiance Holdings - All rights reserved. Copyright 2010 Defiance Capital Management 2
Economic and Investment Research & Analysis
Legal Disclaimers and Disclosures

March 5, 2010 Economic Research

Legal Disclaimers and Disclosures

Defiance Capital Management Economic and Investment Research and Analysis produce and distribute research products for
information purpose only. Defiance Capital Management is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment
adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority.

General disclosures

Although the data in this publication has been obtained from, and are based upon, sources that we believe to be reliable, we
do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All information included in this
publication constitutes our judgment as of the date indicated above and is subject to change without notice. This publication is
not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would
be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial
situations, or needs of any individual or institutional investor (“investor”). An investor should consider whether any advice or
recommendation in this publication is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice,
including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this publication and the income from them may
fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original
capital may occur. There may be additional risk associated with international investing involving foreign economic, political,
monetary, and/or legal factors. International investing may not be for everyone. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have
adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Certain transactions, including those
involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. In addition,
the securities of small-capitalization companies may be subject to higher volatility than larger more established companies.
The large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in our judgment. Our publications are
disseminated primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed form. Electronic publications are simultaneously available
to all clients. Defiance Capital Management is a division of Defiance Holdings.

Any featured company logos or other third party logos are service/trademarks of their respective owners. All other
content are copyrighted © 2010 Defiance Capital Management and Defiance Holdings. All rights reserved. No part of
this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the
prior written consent of Defiance Holdings.

Defiance Holdings - All rights reserved. Copyright 2010 Defiance Capital Management 3
Economic and Investment Research & Analysis