Implications of Withdrawal of US & NATO Forces from

Afghanistan

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Zahir Shah, who was the last king of Afghanistan, was overthrown by his
cousin Mohammed Daoud Khan in 1973, as discontent with the monarchy
was growing in the urban areas of Afghanistan.

The country had witnessed several droughts and charges of corruption and
poor economic policies were leveled against the ruling dynasty.

Mohammed Daoud Khan transformed the monarchy into a republic with him
becoming the first President of Afghanistan.

He was supported by a faction of the Peoples Democratic Party of

Afghanistan (PDPA), Afghanistans communist party, which had been
founded in 1965 and enjoyed strong relations with the Soviet Union.

On April 27, 1978, the PDPA and military units loyal to the PDPA, killed
Daoud Khan, his immediate family and bodyguards in a violent coup, and
seized control of the capital Kabul.

The new PDPA government, led by a revolutionary council, did not enjoy
the support of the masses.

The first communist leader in Afghanistan, Nur Muhammad Taraki was

assassinated by his fellow communist Hafizullah Amin.

The Soviet Union intervened in Afghanistan on December 24 1979. Amin

was almost immediately deposed from power.

After deployment into Afghanistan, Soviet forces along with government

forces began to engage in a protracted counter-insurgency was with
Mujaheddin fighters.

The Mujaheddin fighters were trained, equipped and indoctrinated to fight

jihad against Soviet forces by ISI of Pakistan, with the covert support of CIA
of USA.

The Soviet government realized that military solutions to the conflict would
require far more troops and hence, planned their withdrawal from
Afghanistan in 1988.

The total withdrawal of all Soviet troops from Afghanistan was completed in
February 1989. In total 14,453 Soviet soldiers died during the Afghan war.

The Soviet was had a damaging impact on Afghanistan. Estimates of the

Afghan deaths vary from 670,000 to 2 million.

5-10 million Afghans fled to Pakistan and Iran, 1/3 of the pre-war population
of the country, and another 2 million were displaced within the country.

After the Soviet withdrawal, the Republic of Afghanistan under Najibullah

continued to face resistance from the various mujahideen forces.

Najibullah received funding and arms from the Soviet Union until 1991
when the Soviet Union collapsed.

After the fall of Najibullahs regime in 1992, the Afghan political parties
agreed on a power-sharing agreement, under the Peshawar Accord.

The Peshwar Accord created the Islamic State of Afghanistan and appointed
an interim government for a transitional period to be followed by general
democratic elections.
RISE OF THE TALIBAN

The Taliban were largely founded by Pakistans Inter-Services Intelligence

(ISI) in 1994.

The ISI used the Taliban to establish a regime in Afghanistan which would
be favourable to Pakistan, for gaining strategic depth against India.

The Taliban had initially emerged as a new force in the Southern city of
Kandahar conquering many southern and central provinces not under Islamic
State control in the course of 1994.

In early 1995, as they launched a major operation against the capital Kabul,
they suffered a devastating defeat against the Islamic State forces of
Massoud.

By 1996, however, they had regrouped with massive military support by

Pakistan and financial support by Saudi Arabia.

In September 1996, they took power in Kabul and established the Islamic
Emirate of Afghanistan. The Taliban imposed on the parts of Afghanistan
under their control their interpretation of Islam, which was extremely harsh
and inhumane.

From the Taliban conquest in 1996, up till November 2001, the United Front
controlled roughly 30% of Afghanistans population in various provinces.

The United Islamic front (Northern Alliance) was created under the
leadership of Ahmad Shah Massoud as a military-political resistance force
against the Taliban Emirate.

From 1996 to 2001 the Al Qaeda of Osama Bin Laden and Ayman alZawahiri became a state within the Taliban state.
OFFENSIVE AGAINST TALIBAN

Following the September 11 attacks inside the United States in 2001,

NATO intervened in Afghanistan under Operation Enduring Freedom.

The purpose of this was to defeat Al-Qaeda, capture or kill Osama bin
Laden, remove the Taliban from power and create a viable democratic
Afghan state.

The UN Security Council established the International Security Assistance

force (ISAF) in December 2001 to provide basic security for the people of
Afghanistan and assist the Karzai administration.

Since 2002, the total number of ISAF and US forces has climbed from
15,000 to 150,000.
WITHDRAWAL OF ISAF

Over a decade, the US and NATO forces backed the Karzai led
administration in several cadres vis--vis education, health, reconstruction.

United States has announced to completely pull out its forces from
Afghanistan till the end of 2014 and has started delegating control of parts of
the war-torn country to Afghan authorities.

As a part of transferring power to the Afghan government, US forces has

transferred control of the restive Nirk district of the Wardak province to
Afghan forces.

On political front, US have also started parleys with Taliban that has passed
few phases of suspension and resumption, but remains far away from
success.

Taliban opened their office in Qatar for holding talks with representatives of
Karzai-led government.

US has plans to keep about 10,000 troops in the war-battered Afghanistan

after 2014.

NATO allies are expected to provide around 5,000 troops if the securityrelated agreement is agreed to among the stakeholders in Afghanistan, US
and NATO.
IMPLICATIONS OF WITHDRAWAL OF TROOPS

Resurgence of Taliban/Fundamentalists

It is assumed that after reduction/withdrawal of the coalition forces from

Afghanistan, the Taliban may re-organize/restructure and attempt to
challenge the Afghan National Security forces (ANSF) potential to keep the
country intact.

The Taliban will strive to eliminate the countrys internal security and
political apparatus, i.e. the police, government and the army by demoralizing
and deserting the security forces.

There is also a possibility of the ANSF disintegrating along ethnic lines, in

case the Taliban, a predominantly Pashtun-majority entity, successfully
overruns Kabul after 2014.

Indias Interests

India has invested US $two billion in development aid making India one of
the countrys biggest donors.

In 2011, the two countries signed a Strategic Partnership agreement, in

which India agreed to assist in the training and equipping of Afghan security
forces.

Afghanistan is important for Indias energy security.

India has vital economic interests in Afghanistan in terms of natural

resources, i.e. iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like
lithium.

Afghanistan is also endowed with natural gas and oil, which remains
unexplored due to war and conflict.

Besides the economic interests, India also would like to have a counter
weight to Pakistan in the form of a friend in Afghanistan on the western
border of Pakistan.

Pakistans Game Plan

After 2014, Pakistan will aim to increase its influence in Afghanistan. The
stability of Afghanistan is closely intertwined with developments in
neighbouring Pakistan.

Pakistan will naturally endeavour to curtail Indias influence in Afghanistan

by creating a sense fear psychosis in the mind of Indian investors and work
force engaged in developmental projects.

Islamabad has assisted the Taliban in the past and once again stands accused
by the United States of supporting the Taliban groups fighting ISAF forces
in Afghanistan.

Recently, the Pakistani Taliban formed a new splinter group called the
Jamaat-e-Ahrar, which is inspired by the success of the Islamic state in
Iraq and Syria.

The group is effectively controlled by Omar Khalid Khorasani, an ambitious

Taliban commander with strong ties to al-Qaida.

It is believed to have carried out a bombing in Islamabad that sought to

derail peace talks between the Taliban and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharifs
government.

Hence, Talibanisation of Pakistan is well on the cards. It will definitely have

an adverse spillover effect into India. Afghanistan could become a staging
ground for an Indo-Pakistani proxy war.