Objectives

Concretely, the CYCLONE project will:

Improve cloud services in the Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) layer by integrating

network services into the cloud offering, allowing direct control over virtual machine
network accessibility, intra-site data access, and inter-site data transfers.
Develop tools that provide enhanced functionality for cloud providers that agree to
federate their resources, such as dynamic allocation of bandwidth between cloud
providers and common authentication mechanisms.
Provide tools that allow application developers to take advantage of features like VM
coordination within deployments, automated placement of service components, and
scaling of service components, essentially providing them with the means to
develop a Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) offering.
The means to deploy and to manage easily the defined applications to allow the
application service provides to maintain Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) systems.
Provide software that allows developers to ensure the end-to-end, secure use of
data within their application as well as secured access to remote data sources.
Demonstrate that the CYCLONE software meets the needs of concrete academic and
commercial use cases, while providing frequent, production-quality releases of that
software.
These objectives address a number of deficiencies of the current cloud ecosystem
from which application service providers and developers suffer:
Distributed applications, by definition, rely heavily on network services. However,
the network features of most cloud infrastructures are rudimentary and not fully
integrated with the other cloud management services.
Control of network resources between data centers through the cloud APIs is
currently impossible.
Application monitoring, deployment manipulation, auto-scaling, and network
provisioning are critical for complex application management, yet these features are
rudimentary or completely lacking from application deployment tools.
Lack of a unified identity management scheme between cloud providers forces
application service providers to manage a variety of credentials, often in suboptimal
ways that reduce the security of the overall application deployment.

Mechanisms for the secure, end-to-end management of sensitive data are not
incorporated in either the cloud software or the application deployment tools.
Tropical cyclone observation
Tropical cyclone observation has been carried out over the past couple of centuries
in various ways. The passage of typhoons, hurricanes, as well as other tropical
cyclones have been detected by word of mouth from sailors recently coming to port
or by radio transmissions from ships at sea, from sediment deposits in near shore
estuaries, to the wiping out of cities near the coastline. Since World War II, advances
in technology have included using planes to survey the ocean basins, satellites to
monitor the world's oceans from outer space using a variety of methods, radars to
monitor their progress near the coastline, and recently the introduction of
unmanned aerial vehicles to penetrate storms. Recent studies have concentrated on
studying hurricane impacts lying within rocks or near shore lake sediments, which
are branches of a new field known as paleotempestology. This article details the
various methods employed in the creation of the hurricane database, as well as
reconstructions necessary for reanalysis of past storms used in projects such as the
Atlantic hurricane reanalysis.

Recent studies of the 18O and 13C isotopes found in stalagmites in Belize show that
tropical cyclone events can leave markers that can be separated out on a week-byweek basis. The error rate of this type of microanalysis was 1 error in 1,200
sampling points.[1]
Markers in coral[edit]
Rocks contain certain isotopes of elements, known as natural tracers, which
describe the conditions under which they formed. By studying the calcium
carbonate in coral rock, past sea surface temperature and hurricane information can
be revealed. Lighter oxygen isotopes (18O) are left behind in coral during periods of
very heavy rainfall.[2] Since hurricanes are the main source of extreme rainfall in
the tropical oceans, past hurricane events can be dated to the days of their impact
on the coral by looking at the increased 18O concentration within the coral.[3]
Sediment deposition in coastal lakes[edit]
Kam Biu-Liu, a professor at Louisiana State University, has been studying sediment
lying at the bottom of coastal lakes and marshes in order to study the frequency
and intensity of hurricanes over the past 5,000 years.[4] Since storm surges sweep
coastal sands with them as they progress inland, a layer of sand is left behind in
coastal lakes and marshes. Radiocarbon dating is then used to date the layers.[5]

Newspapers[edit]
Before the invention of the telegraph in the early to mid-19th century, news was as
fast as the quickest horse, stage, or ship. Normally, there was no advance warning
of a tropical cyclone impact. However, the situation changed in the 19th century as
seafaring people and land-based researchers, such as Father Vies in Cuba, came
up with systematic methods of reading the sky's appearance or the sea state, which
could foretell a tropical cyclone's approach up to a couple days in advance.
In China, the abundance of historical documentary records in the form of Fang Zhi
(semiofficial local gazettes) offers an extraordinary opportunity for providing a highresolution historical dataset for the frequency of typhoon strikes. Kam-biu Liu et al.
(2001) reconstructed a 1,000-year time series of typhoon landfalls in the
Guangdong Province of southern China since AD 975 and found that on a decadal
timescale, the twenty-year interval from AD 1660 to 1680 is the most active period
on record, with twenty-eight to thirty-seven typhoon landfalls per decade. The
variability in typhoon landfalls in Guangdong mimics that observed in other
paleoclimatic proxies (e.g., tree rings, ice cores) from China and the northern
hemisphere. Remarkably, the two periods of most frequent typhoon strikes in
Guangdong (AD 1660-1680, 18501880) coincide with two of the coldest and driest
periods in northern and central China during the Little Ice Age.[6]

Surface observations[edit]
Maps of the 1933 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, the two most active on the
record. 28 storms formed in 2005 of which 17 made landfall, while 19 of 21
detected storms formed in 1933 hit the coast. Note that no hurricane was detected
on Mid-Atlantic in 1933.
Ship reports[edit]For centuries, people have sailed the world's oceans and seas, and
for just as long, they have encountered storms. The worst of the cyclones over the
open seas likely took those that observed them into the depths of the oceans.
However, some did survive to report harrowing tales. Before the invention of the
wireless telegraph in 1905, reports about storms at sea either coincided with their
arrival at the coast as ships scrambled into port, or came weeks and months
afterwards from remote ports of call. Ship and buoy reports, available since the
1970s, are used in real-time not only for their temperature, pressure, and wind
measurements, but also for their sea surface temperature and wave height
measurements.

Wind reports from ships at sea have become increasingly based on anemometers,
and less so on the Beaufort Scale. This is important to note as the Beaufort Scale

underestimates winds at higher wind speeds, indicating ship wind observations

taken for older storms are likely to underrepresent their true value.[7]

As Christopher Landsea et al. point out, many tropical cyclones that formed on the
open sea and did not affect any coast usually went undetected prior to satellite
observation since the 1970s. They estimated an undercount bias of zero to six
tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year
between 1886 and 1910. These undercounts roughly take into account the typical
size of tropical cyclones, the density of shipping tracks over the Atlantic basin, and
the amount of populated coastline.[8]

Land-based observations[edit]
In the early 20th century, forecasting the track of cyclones was still confined to
areas of the greatest surface pressure falls, based upon surface weather
observations, and climatology. These methods proved to be the cutting edge of
tropical cyclone forecasting through the mid 20th century. Land-based surface
observations remain invaluable as a source of real-time information at locations
near the coastline and inland. Combined with ship observations and newspapers,
they formed the total information network for hurricane detection until radiosondes
were introduced in 1941 and reconnaissance aircraft began in 1944.[7] Land-based
observations of pressure and wind can show how quickly a tropical cyclone is
decaying as it moves inland. Their rainfall reports show where significant rainfall is
occurring, and can be an alert for possible flooding. With the establishment of the
ASOS network in the United States during the 1990s, more locations are reporting
around the clock than ever before.[9]
Mobile platforms[edit]
Since the 1990s, academic researchers have begun to deploy mobile weather
stations fortified to withstand hurricane-force winds. The two largest programs are
the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program[10] and the Wind Engineering Mobile
Instrumented Tower Experiment.[11] During landfall, the NOAA Hurricane Research
Division compares and verifies data from reconnaissance aircraft, including wind
speed data taken at flight level and from GPS dropwindsondes and steppedfrequency microwave radiometers, to wind speed data transmitted in real time from
weather stations erected near or at the coast. The National Hurricane Center uses
the data to evaluate conditions at landfall and to verify forecasts.
Upper air observations[edit]
Reconnaissance aircraft[edit]

See also: Tropical cyclone forecasting

The idea of aircraft reconnaissance of tropical cyclones first was put forth by
Captain W. L. Farnsworth of the Galveston Commercial Association in the early
1930s. Supported by the United States Weather Bureau, it passed both the United
States Senate and United States House of Representatives in 1936.[12] Since 1944,
aircraft have been flying out to sea to find tropical cyclones. Before regular satellite
coverage, this was a hit-or-miss affair. Thereafter, aircraft flights into tropical
systems became more targeted and precise. Nowadays, a C-130 is used as a
hurricane hunter by the Air Force, while the P-3 Orion is used by the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for research projects used to better
understand tropical cyclones and improve hurricane forecasts.[9] The
implementation of synoptic observation missions by a Gulfstream jet, where
dropwindsondes are used to investigate a tropical cyclone's environment, has led to
a 15-20 percent reduction in track forecast errors where such missions were
present.[13]
Main article: Weather radarDuring World War II, radar technology was developed to
detect aircraft. It soon became apparent that large areas became obscured when
significant weather was in the area. In 1957, the National Weather Service
established the United States' first radar network to cover the coastline and act as
first warning of an impending tropical cyclone. Upgraded in the 1990s to use
doppler technology, radar can provide rainfall estimates, wind estimates, possible
locations of tornadoes within a system's spiral bands, as well as the center location
of a tropical cyclone.[9]
Satellite[edit]
Beginning with the launching of TIROS-I in April 1960, satellites have been used to
look for tropical cyclones. The Dvorak technique was developed from early satellite
images of tropical cyclones to determine real-time a tropical cyclone's strength from
characteristics seen on satellite imagery. In most tropical cyclone basins, use of the
satellite-based Dvorak technique is the primary method used to determine a
tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds. The extent of banding and difference
in temperature between the eye and eyewall is used within the technique to assign
a maximum sustained wind and pressure.[16] Since the mid-1990s, microwave
imagery has been able to determine the center of rotation when that center is
obscured by mid to high level cloudiness. Cloud top temperatures are used in realtime to estimate rainfall rates within the cyclone.[9

Analysis on cyclone collection efficiencies at high temperatures

Abstract

In order to predict the influence of operating temperature on cyclone performance, an

experimental investigation on particle separation was conducted in a 300 mm diameter,
tangential volute-inlet and reverse flow cyclone separator with air heated up to 973 K.
The test powder silica has a mean mass diameter of 10 microns and the inlet velocity
ranges from 12 ms1 to 36 ms1. Both the overall efficiency and fractional efficiency of
the cyclone were measured as a function of the inlet velocity and operating
temperature. It is shown that at the same inlet velocity both the overall efficiency and
fractional efficiency decrease with an increase of temperature. An analysis of our own
data and published results has shown that the fractional efficiency of a cyclone is a
definite function of such dimensionless numbers as Stokes number, Reynolds number,
Froude number and dimensionless cyclone inlet area and dimensionless outlet
diameter. A nondimensional experimental correlation of the cyclone performance,
including the influence of the temperature, was obtained on the basis of our own
previous work. The prediction of the influence of temperature on separation efficiencies
is in fairly good agreement with experimental results.

Conclusion
Finally, the systems have achieved the proposed outcomes through the analysis of datasets
to give an evacuation plan for the community. The project reflects an estimate of 250 hours
worth of work, where most of the time is spent on literature review, data acquisition, data
analysis and documentation.
This concluding chapter discusses the possibility of extending the thesis for wide range of
applications and analysis. Future studies range from the expansion of the current CAS or
developing an all hazard model.
Furthermore, the role of GIS that have been achieved through this study and the final
results projects all the work that has been placed into this study. The evacuation map could
be used as a final product to the thesis.
Future Works
Further research into this topic is recommended due to its wide range of functionality that
coexists in conjunction with spatial information. This project only covers a small amount of
a mitigation system that could be produced. The limitation of time constraint and data
acquisition restricted the expansion of this study outside the area of interest.

For this reason, suggestions for an outlook of the future study are most welcome.
Specifically from the CAS project, it is expected that a better data management system
could be used for the collection and storage of datasets, e.g. MySQL, SQLServer, Oracle
Spatial, etc. This will help in organising the datasets and ease of retrieving query functions.
Other studies include extending the boundaries of the allocated study areas to Northern
Territory and Western Australia as a national system rather than a regional analysis. This
involves the definition of other vulnerable areas within the regional context. For a more
comprehensive network, a national system or global service could be achieved if there is
substantial datasets covering the globe.
Connections of the CAS to other hazards including storm tide and flooding which are
formed subsequent to the cyclone aftermath (BOM, 2007). Some of Australias heaviest
rainfalls have occurred in association with topical cyclones and the decay over land.
However, the study is not limited to just cyclones, but rather a range of natural hazards,
including floods, landslides, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes, etc. The long term goal is
to produce an extensive all hazard functioning monitoring system (DES QLD, 2006).
In conjunction with GIS, the anticipated expansion in relation to a hazard monitoring system
includes:
1.
A three dimensional Cyclone Analysis System to move into the terrain and elevation
framework in order to show an accurate model.
2.
Real time data that connect to BOM with automated updates perhaps using
ArcObjects and ArcSDE. This is give live updates on the weather prediction model
from the current situation of warnings and climate forecasts.
3.
Placing a WebGIS interface in the direction of OpenSpatial OGC concept like CRC
SI to give a better overview to the public.
This thesis leaves a number of open opportunities for others to expand on the original idea.
Especially, GIS could be used to give the basic ground for the limited number of hazard
monitoring systems.
Conclusion
In conclusion, GIS is the best method to analyse cyclones because it could be used as a
tool for developing a spatially enabled system. The result as shown in the outputs and
evacuation analysis gives a better overview of location and visualisation for professionals
and the public to understand.
1.
In simple terms, GIS uses cutting-edge technology to aid recovering communities
by providing the means to gather, analyse and utilize a broad spectrum of data - from
topography to political and governmental boundaries as well as population and
demographics. The information provided by GIS serves to help communities in many
different aspects of recovery and community planning in the wake of a
disaster. (FEMA, 2008)

Therefore, GIS is a useful requirement for this project and other monitoring system to keep
the community safe.
The extensive literature review taught the knowledge of cyclones and the history of
cyclones for background information. For this reason, the evacuation plan is produced due
to the impacts of cyclones and their frequent occurrence in the vulnerable area as defined in
this thesis. Also, contacts and good relationship have been achieved through the data
acquisition, where numbers of respectable organisations and companies have helped in
providing valuable data for this project.
The study present innovative analysis from the Map Algebra functions and map productions
of different area of study. The development of GIS Enabled CAS is suitable for the QLD
community ranging from Townsville to Mackay. The area of study has been defined
because of the cyclone weather pattern that regularly crossed amongst the North Eastern
section of QLD. Hence, developing the system will be critical for solving the problem of
timing and mitigation of cyclone.
Thus, the CAS will be developed in order to help the community and surrounding of QLD
North Coast for mitigation of the natural disaster effects. In summary, the end product of the
CAS will be able to:
1.
GIS is a useful requirement for this project
2.
The cyclones could be located spatially and estimation of proposed cyclones could
be identified
3.
Spatial Analysis could be defined
4.
Evacuation map could be produced

What is a Cyclone?
According to GA (2008) and BOM (1994), Tropical Cyclones (TC) are low pressure systems
which develop in the tropics, in the southern hemisphere. They are sufficiently intense to
produce sustained gale force winds of at least 63 km/h on average that rotates in clockwise
circulations. The severe tropical cyclone is also known as a Hurricane or Typhoon (GA,
2008; BOM, 1994).
Australia experiences TCs regularly around the Northern coastline region due to its
proximity to the tropics than the remainder of the country. As a result, many people are
exposed to cyclones during the cyclone season between November and April, and a major
precautionary system has to be working and reliable to ensure their safety. For six months
of the year, approximately 20,000 km of Australias coastline and 20 per cent of the
population are vulnerable to the devastating winds, high seas and flood rains of a tropical
cyclone (BOM, 1994; 2008).
Furthermore, the events of global warming and climate change have increased the
possibility of cyclones to occur more often at a larger scale (Zakey et al, 2008). In addition

to this, El Nino and La Nina events that changed the currents and sea temperature also
increase the numbers of cyclones occurring along the Australian Coast (Ibid, 2008).
This means that current technologies needs to be manages, maintained and utilised in
order to protect the exposed population. In order to achieve such an outcome,
characteristics of a TC have to be understood (Ibid, 1994), including:
1.
Sustained wind speeds of more than 120 km/h surrounding the centre
2.
Very low atmospheric pressure system
3.
Increase sea level, storm surge and wave heights
4.
Eye diameters are 40 km on average
5.
Eye wall marks the strongest wind and heaviest rainfall
6.
Spiral rain band clouds that extend over 1000 km from the eye
A cyclone is formed when a warm temperature of the sea reaches a threshold level and the
wind structure is rising. In other words, TCs derive their energy from the warm tropical
oceans and do not form unless the sea-surface temperature is above 26.5C. However,
once formed they can persist at lower temperatures and dissipate over land or colder
oceans (BOM, 1994). GA (2008) describes it this way,
1.
The development of a tropical cyclone also relies on favourable broad-scale wind
regimes and can persist for several days with many following quite erratic paths. They
lose their source of energy when they move over land or colder oceans causing
themto dissipate. Weakening may occur also if the cyclone moves into an
unfavourable wind regime which disrupts the structure of the system. Sometimes a
decaying tropical cyclone may interact with a weather system in higher latitudes to
cause impacts far from the tropics (Ibid, 2008).
The eye of the cyclone is the centre of the cyclone where the focus lies. The areas
surrounding the eye will be most affected because of the strong wind. This is illustrated in
Figure 3.1, where the cyclone is rising with a clockwise direction at the bottom and an anticlockwise direction as it rises to the sky, forming a Tropical Cyclone.
addition, GA (2008) described how the cyclone could affect the environment and the
community through strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge. Possibilities of other
factors may also come into effect such as the heavy rain that will lead to flooding, rise of
water tables and sea tides that also lead to flooding, damages to agriculture, farms and
crops over a large area, fatalities and injuries to the surrounding population and economic
impact on businesses, infrastructure and the surrounding properties. In extreme cases,
gusts in excessive circumstances can reach up to 360 km/h (Ibid, 2008). For this reason,
the BOM communicate weather warning systems through wind speed factors due to the
potentially devastating impact.
The cyclone aftermath includes heavy rainfall which causes direct damage to the
community. GA (2008) describes the heavy rainfall as severe impact that can cause flood
and landslides,
1.
Heavy rain from tropical cyclones or tropical depressions often can reach Australias
more southerly latitudes where the rainfall is a major source of water for the countrys

inland river systems. Flooding can wreak havoc over vast areas, inundating land,
isolating communities and destroying infrastructure (Ibid, 2008).
There is also a possibility of a storm surge occurring during cyclone events. This effect is
high regarding the damage it can cause to the community,
1.
Potentially, the most dangerous hazard associated with tropical cyclones which
make landfall in storm surge. The phenomenon has been responsible for more deaths
than any other feature of cyclones. Storm surge is a raised dome of water about 60 to
80 kilometres across and typically about two to five metres higher than the normal tide
level. It is caused by a combination of strong winds driving water onshore and the
lower atmospheric pressure in a tropical cyclone. In the southern hemisphere the
onshore winds occur to the left of the tropical cyclones path. In Australia, this is the
east side on the north west and north coasts and the south side on the east
coast (GA, 2008).
To understand further, there are four stages that form a cyclone which include:
1.
Formative Stage
2.
Immature Cyclone
3.
Mature Cyclone
4.
Decay stage
The precautionary warning of cyclones is usually made during the formative stages. Then,
if necessary, an evacuation will take place during the immature stages. The most
dangerous stage is the mature progress, where the cyclone reaches the peak limit of its
strength cause the most damage. Finally, the cyclone will ease into the decay stage and
dissipate.
Cyclones are measured by a category classification, as illustrated in Table 2.3 (BOM,
2008). Additionally, the cyclone category can vary from different cyclone stages. Category
1 would be of minimal damage with wind gusts up to 125 km/h, and Category 5 would be of
destructive and maximal damage with wind gusts exceeding 280km/h. Table 2.3 also
describes the characteristics and effects of each category with two estimations of the
damages it may cause. This estimation is especially important for an accurate prediction
and appropriate precautions to be taken. Naturally, as cyclone intensity increase between
category 1 to 5, the risk of damage to shorelines, crops, property and life increase
significantly. For example, Cyclone Winifred is classified as Category 3, while Cyclone
Larry and Cyclone Tracy are Category 4 cyclones.

The Tropical Cyclone Severity is measured differently in the Southern and Northern
hemisphere, as shown in Figure 3.2. The Southern hemisphere usually follows the
Australian Categories, while the Northern hemisphere follows the US Saffir Simpson
Categories. The wind gusts are derived from measuring the 10 minute mean wind and the
1 minute mean wind. While the maximum gusts is recorded at the peak of the cyclones.
Cyclones at different seasons and time occur at various categories where the track of the
cyclone resulted in a combination of categories as it changes between the stages.

As a result, the damage analysis from each of the different cyclones will correlate to each of
the categories. The prediction model will revolve around these categories with different
extrapolation of wind gusts for each different category.