Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.9335422936
0.8715012139
0.8586513353
1.1210085465
12

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

1
10
11
Coeficientes
1.1132013971
0.2120278064

Intercepcin
Variable X 1

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Pronstico para Y
4.2257695949
5.9749989976
4.6434643735
8.744082149
7.9998645486
9.3335194508
3.2398402952
6.2569959801
12.2361801202
8.9158246722
4.7897635599
10.3766962582

Variable X 1 Grfico de
coerencia de datos
que tan bueno es el modelo

2
Residuos

0
5

10

15

20

25

30

-2

Variable

Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
85.2288873027 85.2288873 67.8217468 9.1255E-006
12.566601614 1.25666016
97.7954889167

Variable X 1 Curva
20

Error tpico
Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
10
0.8099666902 1.37437923 0.19933934 -0.69151685 2.91791965
-0.69151685
Y
0.0257459152 8.23539597 9.1255E-006 0.15466233 0.26939328 0.15466233
0

10

15

20

25

30

Variable

Residuos
-0.3807695949
-0.5249989976
0.4555356265
0.145917851
-1.3188645486
0.3444805492
1.3021597048
-1.6999959801
1.0528198798
1.5901753278
0.3442364401
-1.3106962582

Grfico de los residuales

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Variable X 1

e X 1 Curva de regresin ajustada

Superior 95.0%
2.91791965
0.26939328
15

20

25

30

35

Variable X 1

Y
Pronstico para Y
40

45

50

55

cantidad
n

poblacion
ventas
x*y
x2
x(miles)
y
1
14.68
3.845
56.4446
215.5024
2
22.93
5.45
124.9685
525.7849
3
16.65
5.099
84.89835
277.2225
4
35.99
8.890
319.9511 1295.2801
5
32.48
6.681 216.99888 1054.9504
6
38.77
9.678 375.21606 1503.1129
7
10.03
4.542
45.55626
100.6009
8
24.26
4.557 110.55282
588.5476
9
52.46
13.289 697.14094 2752.0516
10
36.8
10.506
386.6208
1354.24
11
17.34
5.134
89.02356
300.6756
12
43.69
9.066 396.09354 1908.8161
346.08
86.737 2903.46541 11876.785
promedio
28.84 7.22808333

leoncio prado
rupa rupa
daniel alomia robles
hemilio valdizan
jose crespo y castillo
luyando
mariano

2000
113,342.00
54,965.00
6,197.00
3,865.00
29,966.00
8,294.00
10,055.00

2001
114,888.00
55,670.00
6,309.00
3,892.00
30,556.00
8,414.00
10,047.00

2002
116,358.00
56,339.00
6,418.00
3,915.00
31,129.00
8,528.00
1,029.00

leoncio prado rupa rupa

daniel alomina ro
2000
113,342.00
54,965.00
6,197.00
2001
114,888.00
55,670.00
6,309.00
2002
116,358.00
56,339.00
6,418.00
2003
117,779.00
56,982.00
6,524.00
2004
119,176.00
57,610.00
6,631.00
2005
120,575.00
58,236.00
6,737.00
2006
121,982.00
58,864.00
6,845.00
2007
123,380.00
59,482.00
6,952.00
2008
124,760.00
60,087.00
7,060.00
2009
126,112.00
60,674.00
7,167.00
2010
127,426.00
61,242.00
7,271.00
2011
128,705.00
61,784.00
7,375.00
2012
129,953.00
62,312.00
7,476.00
2013
131,170.00
62,816.00
7,577.00
2014
132,352.00
63,300.00
7,677.00
2015
133,433.00
63,764.00
7,775.00
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

2003
117,779.00
56,982.00
6,524.00
3,936.00
31,694.00
8,637.00
10,006.00

2004
119,176.00
57,610.00
6,631.00
3,955.00
32,257.00
8,745.00
9,978.00

2005
120,575.00
58,236.00
6,737.00
3,974.00
32,824.00
8,854.00
9,950.00

2006
121,982.00
58,864.00
6,845.00
3,992.00
33,398.00
8,962.00
9,921.00

hilio valdiza
jose crspo
luyando
mariano
6,197.00
6,197.00
6,197.00
57,610.00
6,309.00
6,309.00
6,309.00
6,418.00
6,418.00
6,418.00
6,524.00
6,524.00
6,524.00
6,631.00
6,631.00
6,631.00
6,737.00
6,737.00
6,737.00
6,845.00
6,845.00
6,845.00
6,952.00
6,952.00
6,952.00
7,060.00
7,060.00
7,060.00
7,167.00
7,167.00
7,167.00
7,271.00
7,271.00
7,271.00
7,375.00
7,375.00
7,375.00
7,476.00
7,476.00
7,476.00
7,577.00
7,577.00
7,577.00
7,677.00
7,677.00
7,677.00
7,775.00
7,775.00
7,775.00

2007
123,380.00
59,482.00
6,952.00
4,011.00
33,974.00
9,070.00
9,891.00

2008
124,760.00
60,087.00
7,060.00
4,027.00
34,549.00
9,177.00
9,860.00

58,236.00

58,864.00

2009
126,112.00
60,674.00
7,167.00
4,043.00
35,121.00
9,281.00
9,826.00

2010
127,426.00
61,242.00
7,271.00
4,056.00
35,685.00
9,382.00
9,790.00

2011
128,705.00
61,784.00
7,375.00
4,068.00
36,244.00
9,481.00
9,753.00

2012
129,953.00
62,312.00
7,476.00
4,078.00
36,797.00
9,577.00
9,713.00

2013
131,170.00
62,816.00
7,577.00
4,088.00
37,346.00
9,671.00
9,672.00

2014
132,352.00
63,300.00
7,677.00
4,095.00
37,888.00
9,762.00
9,630.00

59,482.00

60,087.00

60,674.00

61,242.00

61,784.00

62,312.00

2015
133,433.00
63,764.00
7,775.00
4,034.00
38,423.00
9,851.00
9,586.00

2016

62,816.00

63,300.00

63,764.00

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.99939546
Coeficiente d 0.99879128
R^2 ajustado 0.9986983
Error tpico
0.16135057
Observacione
15
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
1 279.661558 279.661558 10742.1635 2.3549E-020
Residuos
13 0.33844209 0.02603401
Total
14
280
Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%
Intercepcin -85.1601264 0.89980867 -94.6424829 7.6615E-020 -87.1040448
Variable X 1 0.00074805 7.2175E-006 103.644409 2.3549E-020 0.00073246

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
Pronstico para Y Residuos
1 0.78232427 0.21767573
2 1.88196394 0.11803606
3 2.94494895 0.05505105
4 3.98998067 0.01001933
5 5.03650849 -0.03650849
6 6.08902075 -0.08902075
7 7.13480051 -0.13480051
8 8.16711531 -0.16711531
9 9.17848458 -0.17848458
10 10.1614278 -0.1614278
11 11.1181891 -0.11818912
12 12.0517608 -0.05176076
13 12.9621427 0.03785729
14 13.8463428 0.15365722
15 14.6549894 0.34501064

Variable X 1 Grfico de los re

0.5
Residuos

0
110,000.00 115,000.00 120,000.00 125,000.00
-0.5
Variable X 1

crtico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
-83.216208 -87.1040448 -83.216208
0.00076365 0.00073246 0.00076365

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
110,000.00

120,000.00

130,000.00

1 Grfico de los residuales

5,000.00 120,000.00 125,000.00 130,000.00 135,000.00

Variable X 1

Pronstico para Y

120,000.00

130,000.00

140,000.00

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de
1
Coeficiente d
1
R^2 ajustado
1
Error tpico 1.1596E-011
Observacione
10
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
1 144124169 144124169 1.072E+030 8.4837E-118
Residuos
8 1.0756E-021 1.3446E-022
Total
9 144124169
Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%
Intercepcin -2533500.3 2.5794E-009
2E+014 1.2931E-117 -2533500.3
Variable X 1
1321.726 1.2766E-012 1.035E+015 8.4837E-118
1321.726

crtico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
-2533500.3 -2533500.3 -2533500.3
1321.726
1321.726
1321.726

aos

poblacion de leoncio prado historico y proyectado

leoncio prado
rupa rupa
daniel alo. Rhemilio valdizan
2000
113,342.00
54,965.00
6,197.00
3,865.00
2001
114,888.00
55,670.00
6,309.00
3,892.00
2002
116,358.00
56,339.00
6,418.00
3,915.00
2003
117,779.00
56,982.00
6,524.00
3,936.00
2004
119,176.00
57,610.00
6,631.00
3,955.00
2005
120,575.00
58,236.00
6,737.00
3,974.00
2006
121,982.00
58,864.00
6,845.00
3,992.00
2007
123,380.00
59,482.00
6,952.00
4,011.00
2008
124,760.00
60,087.00
7,060.00
4,027.00
2009
126,112.00
60,674.00
7,167.00
4,043.00
2010
127,426.00
61,242.00
7,271.00
4,056.00
2011
128,705.00
61,784.00
7,375.00
4,068.00
2012
129,953.00
62,312.00
7,476.00
4,078.00
2013
131,170.00
62,816.00
7,577.00
4,088.00
2014
132,352.00
63,300.00
7,677.00
4,095.00
2015
133,433.00
63,764.00
7,775.00
4,034.00
2016
131,099
64,601
7,894
2017
132,421
65,183
7,999
2018
133,743
65,765
8,104
2019
135,064
66,347
8,210
2020
136,386
66,929
8,315
2021
137,708
67,512
8,420
2022
139,030
68,094
8,525
2023
140,351
68,676
8,630
2024
141,673
69,258
8,735
2025
142,995
69,840
8,840

leoncio prado
135,000.00
f(x) = 1335.1857142857x + 113855.114285714
R = 0.9987912783

130,000.00
125,000.00

Axis Title

Column B

120,000.00

Linear (Column B)

115,000.00
110,000.00
105,000.00
0

Axis Title

10

12

14

16

110,000.00
105,000.00
0

10

12

14

16

Axis Title

daniel

Axis Title

9,000.00
8,000.00
7,000.00
6,000.00
5,000.00
4,000.00
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00

f(x) = 105.15x + 6211.7333333333

R = 0.9998066695
Column D
Linear (Column D)

10

12

14

16

Axis Title

jose crespo

Axis Title

45,000.00
40,000.00
35,000.00
30,000.00
25,000.00
20,000.00
15,000.00
10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00

f(x) = 564.3714285714x + 30010.6952380952

R = 0.9999147152
Column F
Linear (Column F)

10

12

14

16

Axis Title

mariano
10,100.00
10,000.00

f(x) = - 33.1035714286x + 10108.2952380952

R = 0.9901617615

9,900.00
9,800.00

Axis Title

9,700.00
9,600.00
9,500.00

Column H
Linear (Column H)

f(x) = - 33.1035714286x + 10108.2952380952

R = 0.9901617615

10,000.00
9,900.00
9,800.00

Axis Title

Column H

9,700.00

Linear (Column H)

9,600.00
9,500.00
9,400.00
9,300.00
0

10

12

14

16

Axis Title

ao

mercado total
merc.potencial
merc.disp.
merc.efec.
2016
131,099
43,551
39,196
2017
132,421
43,990
39,591
2018
133,743
44,429
39,986
2019
135,064
44,868
40,382
2020
136,386
45,308
40,777
2021
137,708
45,747
41,172
2022
139,030
46,186
41,567
2023
140,351
46,625
41,962
2024
141,673
47,064
42,357
2025
142,995
47,503
42,753

mercado de clase
M1= lim inferior +lim superior
2
a) 1+2 =1.5
2
b) 2+4 = 3
2
c) 5+0 = 5
1

supermercados
Puestos de mercados
bodegas
centros mayoristas
TOTAL
Aos
n consumidores Q

19,598
19,796
19,993
20,191
20,388
20,586
20,784
20,981
21,179
21,376

70%

1.05

20%

0.6

10%

0.5
2.15

Determinacion del precio ponderado

120
45%
115
25%
125
18%
110
12%

determinacion de las ventas

unidades
cajas(Contenido)

2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

245
247
250
252
255
257
260
262
265
267

25.8
25.8
25.8
25.8
25.8
25.8
25.8
25.8
25.8
25.8

6321.00
6384.09
6447.81
6511.53
6575.25
6638.97
6702.69
6766.41
6830.14
6893.86

48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48

rico y proyectado
jose crespo y castilloluyando
mariano
29,966.00
8,294.00
10,055.00
30,556.00
8,414.00
10,047.00
31,129.00
8,528.00
10,029.00
31,694.00
8,637.00
10,006.00
32,257.00
8,745.00
9,978.00
32,824.00
8,854.00
9,950.00
33,398.00
8,962.00
9,921.00
33,974.00
9,070.00
9,891.00
34,549.00
9,177.00
9,860.00
35,121.00
9,281.00
9,826.00
35,685.00
9,382.00
9,790.00
36,244.00
9,481.00
9,753.00
36,797.00
9,577.00
9,713.00
37,346.00
9,671.00
9,672.00
37,888.00
9,762.00
9,630.00
38,423.00
9,851.00
9,586.00
39,041
9,985
9,578
39,605
10,088
9,545
40,170
10,191
9,512
40,734
10,295
9,479
41,298
10,398
9,446
41,863
10,501
9,413
42,427
10,604
9,380
42,992
10,707
9,347
43,556
10,811
9,314
44,120
10,914
9,280

umn B

ar (Column B)

rupa rupa
66,000.00
64,000.00

f(x) = 582.1214285714x + 55287.1619047619

R = 0.9975439901

62,000.00

Column C

60,000.00

Linear (Column C)

58,000.00
56,000.00
54,000.00
52,000.00
50,000.00
0

Axis
6 Title 8

10

12

14

16

56,000.00
54,000.00
52,000.00
50,000.00
0

Axis
6 Title 8

10

12

14

16

hemilio
4,150.00
4,100.00

f(x) = 13.4571428571x + 3903.2761904762

R = 0.8678916927

4,050.00
4,000.00

mn D
(Column D)

umn F

ar (Column F)

umn H

ear (Column H)

Axis Title

3,950.00

Column E

3,900.00

Linear (Colu

3,850.00
3,800.00
3,750.00
0

10

12

14

16

Axis Title

luyando
10,000.00
f(x) = 103.1892857143x + 8333.9523809524
R = 0.9988837698

9,500.00
9,000.00

Axis Title

Column G

Linear (Colum

8,500.00
8,000.00
7,500.00
0

Axis Title

10

12

14

16

umn H

ear (Column H)

1335

merc.efec X familia
mercado meta
4,900
245
4,949
247
4,998
250
5,048
252
5,097
255
5,146
257
5,196
260
5,245
262
5,295
265
5,344
267

X 12 =25.80

Consumo por persona anual

ado

de las ventas
cajas

54
28.75
22.5
14.2
118.45

precio unit.

total ventas

131.69
133.00
134.33
135.66
136.98
138.31
139.64
140.97
142.29
143.62

118.45
118.45
118.45
118.45
118.45
118.45
118.45
118.45
118.45
118.45

15,598.38
15,754.07
15,911.31
16,068.56
16,225.80
16,383.05
16,540.29
16,697.54
16,854.78
17,012.03

mercado de clase
M1= lim inferior +lim supe
2
a) 1+2 =1.5
2
b) 2+4 = 3
2
c) 5+0 = 5
1

Determinacion del precio p

supermercados
Puestos de mercados
bodegas
centros mayoristas

Column C
Linear (Column C)

4,900
4,949
4,998
5,048
5,097
5,146
5,196

5,245
5,295
5,344

Column E
Linear (Column E)

16

Column G
Linear (Column G)

16

o de clase
inferior +lim superior
2
a) 1+2 =1.5
2
b) 2+4 = 3
2
c) 5+0 = 5
1

70%

1.05

20%

0.6

10%

0.5
2.15 X 12 =25.80 Consumo por persona anual

nacion del precio ponderado

de mercados

mayoristas

n consumidores
Q
245
247
250
252
255
257
260

120
115
125
110

45%
25%
18%
12%

unidades
25.8
25.8
25.8
25.8
25.8
25.8
25.8

54
28.75
22.5
14.2
118.45
cajas

6321.00
6384.09
6447.81
6511.53
6575.25
6638.97
6702.69

cajas
48
48
48
48
48
48
48

131.69
133.00
134.33
135.66
136.98
138.31
139.64

262
265
267

25.8
25.8
25.8

6766.41
6830.14
6893.86

48
48
48

140.97
142.29
143.62

sumo por persona anual

precio unit. total ventas

118.45
15,598.38
118.45
15,754.07
118.45
15,911.31
118.45
16,068.56
118.45
16,225.80
118.45
16,383.05
118.45
16,540.29

118.45
118.45
118.45

16,697.54
16,854.78
17,012.03

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

leoncio pradorupa rupa

daniel alomiahemilio valdi
113,342.00
54,965.00
6,197.00
3,865.00
114,888.00
55,670.00
6,309.00
3,892.00
116,358.00
56,339.00
6,418.00
3,915.00
117,779.00
56,982.00
6,524.00
3,936.00
119,176.00
57,610.00
6,631.00
3,955.00
120,575.00
58,236.00
6,737.00
3,974.00
121,982.00
58,864.00
6,845.00
3,992.00
123,380.00
59,482.00
6,952.00
4,011.00
124,760.00
60,087.00
7,060.00
4,027.00
126,112.00
60,674.00
7,167.00
4,043.00
127,426.00
61,242.00
7,271.00
4,056.00
128,705.00
61,784.00
7,375.00
4,068.00
129,953.00
62,312.00
7,476.00
4,078.00
131,170.00
62,816.00
7,577.00
4,088.00
132,352.00
63,300.00
7,677.00
4,095.00
133,433.00
63,764.00
7,775.00
4,034.00
131,099
64,601
7,894
132,421
65,183
7,999
133,743
65,765
8,104
135,064
66,347
8,210
136,386
66,929
8,315
137,708
67,512
8,420
139,030
68,094
8,525
140,351
68,676
8,630
141,673
69,258
8,735
142,995
69,840
8,840

jose crespo y luyando

mariano
29,966.00
8,294.00
10,055.00
30,556.00
8,414.00
10,047.00
31,129.00
8,528.00
10,029.00
31,694.00
8,637.00
10,006.00
32,257.00
8,745.00
9,978.00
32,824.00
8,854.00
9,950.00
33,398.00
8,962.00
9,921.00
33,974.00
9,070.00
9,891.00
34,549.00
9,177.00
9,860.00
35,121.00
9,281.00
9,826.00
35,685.00
9,382.00
9,790.00
36,244.00
9,481.00
9,753.00
36,797.00
9,577.00
9,713.00
37,346.00
9,671.00
9,672.00
37,888.00
9,762.00
9,630.00
38,423.00
9,851.00
9,586.00
39,041
9,985
9,578
39,605
10,088
9,545
40,170
10,191
9,512
40,734
10,295
9,479
41,298
10,398
9,446
41,863
10,501
9,413
42,427
10,604
9,380
42,992
10,707
9,347
43,556
10,811
9,314
44,120
10,914
9,280