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Carbon Market Analyst

North America
US Offset Markets in 2010:
RESEARCH The Road Not Yet Taken
March 1, 2010

TO THE POINT CONTENT


In 2009, the total US offset market was worth $74 million, with 2 Executive summary
19.4 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents (CO2e) in traded 3 Introduction
volumes. Transactions involving credits from the Climate
Action Reserve made up 65% of the total market value. 3 Setting the scene
6 US offset market size
Prices of various types of offsets in the US market fell,
particularly for those credits issued by the Chicago Climate 9 Carbon prices
Exchange, as buyers continued to wait for more policy 10 Supply of US offsets
certainty. However, forward contracts of the Climate
12 Demand for US offsets
Action Reserve-issued credits held steady for most of
the year. 13 2010 forecast
15 Conclusion
The supply of credits in 2009 reached 29 Mt CO2e, a 13% rise
from 2008 and a 63% rise from 2007. This supply is based on
information from Point Carbon’s Carbon Project Manager
North America database of projects.
Point Carbon forecasts growth of 263% in trading volumes in
UPCOMING REPORTS
2010 if cap-and-trade legislation passes, but a leveling off
of growth if the legislation fails to pass. • Carbon 2010: Revenge of the
States

• After Copenhagen: Outlook for


International Negotiations

• US Financial Regulatory Reform


and its Impact on Carbon Markets

Disclaimer

The data provided in this report were prepared by Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and Research division. Publications of Point Carbon’s Trading
Analytics and Research division are provided for informational purposes only. Prices are indicative and Point Carbon does not offer to buy or
sell or solicit offers to buy or sell any financial instrument or offer recommendations to purchase, hold or sell any commodity or make any
other investment decision. Other than disclosures relating to Point Carbon, the information contained in this publication has been obtained
from sources that Point Carbon believes to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or
completeness of this information. The opinions and views expressed in this publication are those of Point Carbon and are subject to change
without notice, and Point Carbon has no obligation to update either the opinions or the information contained in this publication.

Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and Research division receives compensation for its reports. Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and Research
division reports are published on a subscription basis and are not issued at the request of any client of Point Carbon.

POINT CARBON RESEARCH All rights reserved © 2010 Point Carbon


Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

Executive summary
While federal cap-and-trade legislation faces an unclear contracts for Climate Action Reserve 2009 vintage
future in the US, a growing number of American offset credits actually gained 13 percent during the year.
projects are moving ahead and generating carbon credits
from greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction projects. These Supplies of offset credits continued to grow unabated.
credits originate from a wide array of project types and In 2009, 29 Mt CO2e in reductions came from US
locations, with the help of verifiers and registries who offset projects, according to Carbon Project Manager
certify the credits to one of a handful of standards. North America, Point Carbon’s North American offset
product which features a database of offset projects
Transactions of credits from US offset projects reached in North America. This supply represents a growth of
19.4 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e) 13 percent from 2008, and a 63 percent growth from
in 2009, worth $74 million (see Table 1). To put this 2007. Methane-based reductions comprised the largest
number in perspective, the size of the total US carbon share of supply—49 percent of the total pipeline—with
market, including allowance volumes under the forestry taking up 6 percent. The four major offset
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and the standards together shared the bulk of the reductions,
Chicago Climate Exchange, was 841 Mt CO2e, valued with no single standard accounting for a majority of the
at $2.7 billion. Policy uncertainty at the federal level, and reductions in 2009.
consequently a lack of a compliance-driven appetite for
carbon credits, continued to hold the US offset market On the demand side, Point Carbon surveyed a small
back. but influential group of players who possess a good
view of both the sell side and the buy side. Based on
The delay in climate legislation at the federal level also the responses, “pre-compliance” purchases made up
had an effect on credit prices on the spot markets. The 65 percent of the total primary market. The remaining
Chicago Climate Exchange, Voluntary Carbon Standard, purchases were “voluntary,” where the buyers wished
and Climate Action Reserve saw spot prices drop 91 to simply reduce their carbon footprint. When these
percent, 44 percent, and 29 percent respectively findings are applied to the size of the US market, Point
over the course of 2009. On the other hand, forward Carbon finds that the US pre-compliance market traded
$48 million worth of credits in 2009, compared to $26
Table 1: Size of the US offset market in 2009 million for the voluntary market.
Volumes That same research also uncovered that carbon funds
Value ($M)
(Mt CO2e) and aggregators were the main buyers of primary
CCX CFIs 6.4 $5.8 offsets credits, with 39 percent of transactions. They
were followed closely by financial intermediaries at 30
Exchange Based CAR 0.8 $4.0
percent, and then emitters at 25 percent. Far behind
Subtotal 7.2 $9.8
them were individual and organizational retail buyers,
who provided only 6 percent of the primary demand.
CAR 7.2 $48.2
Looking forward to 2010, we break down our growth
VCS 2.1 $9.7
forecast into two different scenarios, one where cap-
OTC and Bilateral
ACR 1.8 $3.5 and-trade passes in June of 2010, and the other where
Markets
Other 1.1 $2.4 it does not. In the first scenario, Point Carbon forecasts
263 percent growth in volume and 321 percent growth
Subtotal 12.2 $63.8
in value year to year. In the other scenario, we see
trading volumes stay flat and market value starting to
Total 19.4 $73.6 level off at 31 percent growth.

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Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

Introduction:
the path ahead Textbox 1: Cap-and-trade programs and the role of offsets
Proponents of a US Climate Bill
could be forgiven for being a little A cap-and-trade program is a market-based mechanism designed to
discouraged. Though still convinced reduce the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by implementing an
that sweeping legislation will emissions cap. The system administrator issues allowances that are
eventually pass, many have already usually denominated in tons of carbon dioxide, which altogether add up
battled through bitter debates, horse to the targeted emissions totals. Allowances can be allocated freely or
trading, and political theater to come auctioned.
to what is now a muddled midpoint.
For each ton of CO2e that a company emits, it must turn in one allowance
Challenges have come from both the (known as “true-up”). To meet their cap, regulated entities can choose
political right—who fear higher energy to reduce emissions internally or purchase additional allowances. If a
costs, government intrusion, and a facility over-achieves its target, it can sell its excess allowances. In this
silencing of scientific dissent—as way, the system allows the entities with the lowest marginal cost of
well as the political left, who contend GHG abatement to benefit, allowing others with higher costs to purchase
that the leading bills are too weak and allowances on the market.
bend too closely to Wall Street. A third option allows covered entities in a cap-and-trade program to use
carbon offset credits to meet their commitments in place of allowances.
Across party lines, many players
Offset credits originate from project-based activities in uncapped sectors,
are keenly fixed on one mechanism
and represent GHG emission reductions additional to what would happen
within the leading cap-and-trade bills:
in a business as usual scenario. This is known as “additionality.” An
carbon offsets. Offsets represent
offset credit is a tradable carbon instrument equal to one metric ton of
a reduction of GHG emissions that
CO2 equivalent emission reductions (CO2e). Retiring an offset effectively
would not have happened otherwise.
reduces emissions, and therefore reduces the obligation to purchase one
Offset credits are allowed in most
incremental allowance.
GHG cap-and-trade systems as
a substitute for an emissions
allowance.

Offsets have also become a flashpoint


(OTC) bilateral or brokered contracts, Setting the scene:
US-generated offset credits are
for debate and criticism. Opponents difficult to track and analyze. Carbon The landscape of US
question whether the reductions are
“real”, or above and beyond business
allowances in emissions trading offset projects
schemes, on the other hand, usually
as usual. Others also see offsets as trade on open financial exchanges. In the face of policy uncertainty,
a modern day indulgence, and would Publically available research into organizations have begun to develop
prefer emitters internally reduce their offsets has generally taken an and market offset credits in the US.
own emissions. international approach, focusing on These credits originate from a wide
In contrast, supporters point to the global voluntary offset markets or array of project types and locations,
benefits of offsets and argue that they the Clean Development Mechanism, with the help of verifiers and registries
help achieve emission reductions at a rather than on the US market that certify the credits to one of a
lower overall cost. They do so across exclusively. handful of standards. Buyers, who
many countries and industries, many range from utilities to financial traders
This report endeavors to fill that to individual retail buyers, purchase
of which are otherwise uncapped. information gap. Point Carbon has
They help fund clean technology credits either to reduce their carbon
combined the data from Carbon footprint voluntarily, or to purchase
development and address complex Project Manager North America, our
emissions sources such as forestry with the hopes that they can be used
database of North American offset in the future for compliance in a future
and agriculture. projects, with the market expertise US cap-and-trade program (see Textbox
Despite so much attention, offsets from leading players to provide 1). Generally, the former are called
are also one of the least understood the most accurate, complete, and “voluntary buyers” and the latter are
aspects of US carbon trading. Often concise overview of the offset called “pre-compliance buyers.”
transacted in private over-the-counter market for US projects available.

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Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

A diversity of types and


standards Textbox 2: Offset project types
In the US, buyers making an offset
purchase decision have to sift through Carbon capture and storage: Projects that capture CO2 and inject it
a wide selection of credits. One of underground in subsurface geologic formations for long-term storage. In
the most important considerations this stage of the market, enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is the only form of
is the type of project. In the US, CCS that has generated offsets. EOR involves the injection of CO2 into an
methane capture projects originating oil field to increase extraction of the crude, sequestering the CO2 under
from landfills, agricultural livestock, the ground.
or coal mines are among the most
common. However, forests also play Coal mine methane: Projects that reduce the GHG emissions associated
a central role in the US offset market with released methane during the coal mining process. The methane can
be flared, combusted for energy generation, or piped out as natural gas
by sequestering atmospheric carbon.
after purification.
Other active categories include
destruction of industrial gases,
Energy efficiency: Projects that reduce the overall demand for energy,
enhanced oil recovery (EOR), soil typically achieved by using more efficient products or processes. Examples
sequestration, renewable energy, include energy-efficient buildings and installation of compact fluorescent
and energy efficiency (see Textbox 2). light bulbs.
Buyers also navigate through
Forestry: Projects that enable sequestration and storage of atmospheric
the many different standards
carbon dioxide in the biomass of a growing forest stand and its soils.
organizations which provide often
Forestry projects include afforestation, reforestation, avoided deforestation,
unique methodologies for calculating, and forest management. Afforestation is the process of converting land
monitoring, and certifying offset that has not been forested for at least a generation to forested land.
credits (see Table 2). Leading Reforestation is the process of restoring forests on land that previously
standards organizations in the US was forested. Avoided deforestation (also known as conservation, or
include the Climate Action Reserve REDD—reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation) is the
(CAR), Voluntary Carbon Standard protection of existing forests. Forest management is more generally based
(VCS), Chicago Climate Exchange on harvesting techniques and restoration which increase the carbon stock
(CCX), American Carbon Registry of a forest.
(ACR), and The Gold Standard (GS).
The Regional Greenhouse Gas Industrial processes: Projects that capture and destroy industrial pollutants
Initiative (RGGI) standard at the time such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and ozone
of this report had not issued any tons. depleting substances (ODS), each of which have a global warming potential
hundreds or thousands of times greater than CO2.
Market players: A supporting
ecosystem emerges Landfill methane: Projects that capture the methane emitted by the
decomposition of waste in landfills. The biogas, which contains large
There are a number of organizations amounts of methane, can be flared, combusted for energy generation, or
that play a role in bringing offsets into piped out as natural gas after purification.
the hands of final buyers. The most
crucial role is that of developer. A Livestock methane: Projects that capture the methane from livestock
project developer generally oversees manure, typically from cattle or swine. The methane can be flared,
installation of the emission reduction combusted for energy generation, or piped out as natural gas after
activity, and is the original owner purification.
of the offset credits. The role of
Renewable energy: Projects that displace fossil fuel-based electricity and
developer can overlap with other roles,
energy with generation from renewable sources. Examples include wind
such as the entity that owns the site
power, solar power, hydroelectric power, and biofuels.
of the reductions (such as a landfill
owner), or an aggregator that buys Soil sequestration: Projects that remove GHGs from the atmosphere by
and packages offsets together from capturing and storing those GHGs in soils. No-till agriculture is the primary
many different projects, to then sell way this has been employed in the US.
the credits to buyers. A verifier acts as

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Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

Table 2: Prominent offset standards in the US

Chicago Climate,
Voluntary Carbon Climate Action American
Gold Standard Climate Community &
Standard Reserve Carbon Registry
Exchange Biodiversity
Accounting CDM CDM 10 CAR specific 10 CCX ACR, CDM, VCS, 17 Criteria
Methodology methodologies methodologies project protocols, specific project EPA Climate
1 forthcoming protocols Leaders protocols
Registry Administered Administered by APX, Administered by Not available to Administered by Administered
by APX Markit Environmental, APX public ACR by CCBA
Caisse des Dépôts
Credits issued for 0 0.7 1.4 5.3 7.9 Does not
2008 Reductions in issue credits
US (Mt) (as of 2/22/10)
Credits issued for 0 1.3 0.5 1.9 2.9 Does not
2009 Reductions in issue credits
US (Mt) (as of 2/22/10)
Sources: Carbon Project Manager North America, APX, Markit Environmental, Caisse des Dépôts, CCBA, Gold Standard, VCS, CCX, ACR

a third party auditor to ensure proper


reduction measurement is performed, Textbox 3: Market structure definitions
and that the project is eligible for offset
creation. Exchange traded markets: In these markets, credits are purchased
either by traders, or by brokers who act on behalf of buyers and sellers.
On the financial side, liquidity Exchanges typically publicly disclose volume and pricing information for
providers like brokers and exchanges the standardized contracts. The exchange itself guarantees that orders will
bring buyers and sellers together, be filled if the counterparty is unable to fulfill the order.
while traders typically buy and sell on
an exchange. Over-the-counter (OTC) markets: OTC transactions are not performed on
an exchange, but rather can be executed bilaterally through two different
Along the way, the process is counterparties, or brought together by a third party such as a broker. These
aided by lawyers, consultants, and transactions cater to small or non-uniform markets, which cannot easily
information providers that offer expert conform to a standardized exchange contract.
analysis and advice. Registries also
bring transparency and legitimacy to Spot contracts: These contracts can be sold on or off exchange, allowing
the offsets markets, by registering buyers to purchase issued credits with cash, and have it delivered
projects and ensuring that double immediately.
counting does not occur. For more on Futures contracts: A standardized and fungible contract that is traded on
roles of market participants, see our an exchange, which obligates the buyer to deliver the credits at a pre-
2008 report, Business Opportunities determined time in the future and at a pre-determined price.
in the Carbon Market.
Forward markets: A non-standardized contract negotiated OTC which
The architecture of credit obligates the seller to deliver the credits at a pre-determined time in the
future at a pre-determined price to the buyer.
trading
Option contracts: These contracts can be sold on and off exchange, and
For the offset market, one can allow the buyer the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell a credit at
either purchase credits through a pre-determined price, by a pre-determined time in the future. While the
an exchange such as the Chicago buyer pays a premium for this right, the seller has the obligation to fulfill
Climate Futures Exchange (CCFE), or the order at that price if the buyer exercises the option. An option to buy a
purchase them “off exchange” on the commodity is called a “call,” while an option to sell is called a “put.”
over-the-counter (OTC) market.

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Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

The Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)


is a hybrid organization that contains Textbox 4: The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)
a voluntary but legally binding cap-
and-trade system. As in a traditional The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (commonly known as RGGI –
emissions trading scheme, emitters pronounced “Reggie”) is a regional cap-and-trade regime which formally
can either reduce internally or began January 1, 2009. The scheme includes 10 US states in the Northeast
purchase allowances called Carbon United States which have collectively committed to stabilize emissions
Financial Instruments (CFIs), which from electricity generation by 2014, and thereafter to reduce emissions
are denominated in metric tons of 10 percent below 2009 levels by 2018. Though managed on a state-by-
CO2. Offsets can also be issued by state level, an overarching organization (RGGI Inc.) administers much of
the CCX, and they are also called the infrastructure across the scheme.
CFIs. However, the CFI is unique in
Offsets are allowed in RGGI, with limits of 3.3 percent of total allowance
that it can represent either an offset obligations on a per year basis, rising to 10 percent if allowances prices rise
or an allowance. Only members can to $10/short ton. The RGGI system allows five project types, with some
trade CFIs on the CCX, and the CCX limitations on location of activity and start date. In practice, there are very
only offers spot contracts for CFIs. few offsets applying for RGGI certification, since RGGI allowance prices
are too low to incentivize demand for offsets.
The Chicago Climate Futures
Exchange (CCFE) offers futures and It is also important to note that RGGI is denominated in short tons, not
options contracts for CFIs, alongside metric tons.
a number of other contracts on a
trading platform. Unlike CCX, it does
not feature a captive emissions Offsets: The sun also Plummeting CFI prices however kept
scheme. The Green Exchange/ a lid on the value of those trades,
CME Group offers a similar suite of rises in America since CFI transactions were only
derivative contracts for environmental worth 8 percent of the total market.
With support from offset project
commodities, though it does not These numbers include privately
developers and other market players,
include any contracts for offsets or negotiated transactions in addition to
transactions for credits from US
CFIs. trades where prices were determined
offset projects reached 19.4 million
on the exchange.
Many buyers prefer to transact metric tons of CO2 equivalents (Mt
in the OTC market, so that they CO2e) in 2009, worth $74 million. US CAR and VCS featured prominently
specify the exact characteristics of offset volumes were roughly divided in the OTC market. CAR credits
the credits they are purchasing (for between exchange transactions (known as Climate Reserve Tonnes,
instance, 2008 reductions for CAR- (37 percent) and OTC transactions or CRTs) accounted for 37 percent
certified California Forestry). On (63 percent). Table 3 displays US of total volumes, and 65 percent of
the other hand, exchange contracts offset market volumes and values market value, reflecting the premium
tend to be standardized, without the by standard, exchange, and type of that CRT prices command in the
flexibility to target specific types of transaction. market. VCS, though small in terms
credits. Brokers play a strong role in of volumes, made up 11 percent of
these OTC markets, by structuring the value of US offsets.
transactions and bringing buyers and CAR transactions
sellers together, receiving in payment accounted for 65 Once allowances are added to the
a percentage of the transaction value. offset numbers, the overall US
percent of the US offset carbon market expands to 841 Mt
Bilateral purchases, where the offset
owner sells privately and directly to
market value in 2009 CO2e, worth $2.7 billion. Table 5
the buyer, are also prominent. In the shows the breakdown of US volumes
OTC market, purchases are typically Offsets certified to the CCX and and values, with allowance trades
arranged through an emissions CAR standards made up most from the CCX, CCFE, and the Green
reductions purchase agreement of the volumes. CFIs (which are Exchange/CME Group.
(ERPA). These can take a variety issued against the CCX standards)
From a global perspective, the US-
of forms, but usually stipulate the cleared through either the CCX or
based offset market is a drop in the
price of the reductions, the volumes CCFE exchanges, and made up 33
bucket. International carbon trading
expected, and delivery timeframe. percent of the total volumes in 2009.

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Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

totaled $136 billion (€94 billion) in


2009, with offset markets making Table 3: 2009 US offset market volumes and values
up $26 billion (€18 billion) of that
amount. US offsets were worth only Volumes (Mt CO2e) Value ($M)
0.2 percent of the global compliance CCX CFIs 6.4 $5.8
offset market. (For more on the global Exchange based CAR 0.8 $4.0
carbon market, please see our report
Subtotal 7.2 $9.8
Carbon 2010).

Obstacles to progress CAR 7.2 $48.2

VCS 2.1 $9.7


Trading volumes from US projects
have a long way to go before meeting OTC and bilateral markets ACR 1.8 $3.5

the market potential. A number of Other 1.1 $2.4


specific issues have held the market Subtotal 12.2 $63.8
back:

Policy uncertainty. Most problematic Total 19.4 $73.6


is the simple issue of policy Sources: Carbon Project Manager North America, CCX, CCFE
uncertainty, particularly for buyers
of compliance-quality offset credits. Table 4: 2009 volumes by type of contract (Mt CO2e)
Without a clear knowledge of the Spot markets Futures/Forwards/Options Total
rules and targets, most buyers—
CCX CFIs 4.6 1.8 6.4
particularly utilities and industrials—
are content to wait rather than risk Exchange based CAR -- 0.8 0.8
purchasing credits that may prove Subtotal 4.6 2.6 7.2
worthless down the road. Speculative
financial buyers that tolerate higher
CAR 1.8 5.3 7.2
risk have picked up some of the slack.
VCS 1.2 0.9 2.1
Lack of transparency. In the complex OTC and bilateral
ACR 1.6 0.2 1.8
US market where the value of an markets
Other 0.8 0.4 1.1
offset credit differs greatly from project
to project, over-the-counter (OTC) Subtotal 5.4 6.7 12.2
markets tend to dominate. One cannot
easily shoehorn a US offset credit Total 10.0 9.4 19.4
into a generic exchange contract, but
Sources: Carbon Project Manager North America, CCX, CCFE
OTC markets are hard to track. To find
pricing and volume information for US Table 5: 2009 total US carbon market
offsets, market participants have to rely
on information providers or brokers. Volumes (Mt CO2e) Market Value ($M)
Exchanges 627 $2,192
Lack of oversight. While offset Regional Greenhouse Gas Auctions 116 $349
registries such as the Climate Action
Initiative Options 22 $21
Reserve and the Voluntary Carbon
Standard have helped provide Subtotal 765 $2,563
guidance, lack of government
oversight has allowed concerns over CCX (CFI spot) 45 $42
offset quality to persist. In particular,
CCFE (CFI Futures, CAR, etc) 19 $21
buyers want to be sure the credits
that they buy are not being sold OTC offsets market 12 $64

twice, and that the credits represent Subtotal 76 $127


real reductions from projects that go
beyond business as usual.
Total 841 $2,690
Illiquidity. The factors listed have Sources: Carbon Project Manager North America, CCX, CCFE, Green Exchange/CME

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Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

Textbox 5: Methodology and sources

There are many assumptions and calculations behind the volume and value figures presented in this report. Below
are the most significant.

Exchange-traded information: The Chicago Climate Exchange and the Green Exchange/CME Group provided raw
data. To calculate the portion of offsets traded in CFI contracts (since CFIs can either be allowances or offsets), we
assume that 15 percent of total spot, futures, and options trades were for offset transactions. This is based on the
statement that 15 percent of reductions by capped CCX members were achieved through the purchase of offsets
(as stated by Stockholm Environment Institute).

To further narrow the offsets volumes down to those only originating from US-based offsets, we multiply the total
CFI offset volume by 68 percent, proportion of US offsets in the total CCX offset pool in 2009.

Prices for spot and futures contracts were based on the average daily price for 2009. For futures, we averaged
the prices of all contracts with 2009 and 2010 settlement dates. Since option prices vary depending on strike
price, length of time, and whether a call or put, Point Carbon took the price (averaged over the year) of the most
commonly traded contract for each unique underlying carbon instrument (CFI, CRT, etc).

For CCX and CCFE options data, we multiplied the volumes by a “delta equivalent” factor to account for the
difference between current price and strike price, which determines how likely it is that the option will be exercised.

OTC information: Our OTC volume calculations combine “bottom-up” and “top-down” approaches. The bottom-up
approach is based on the pipeline of projects in the Carbon Project Manager North America (CPMNA) database,
broken down by standard (CAR, VCS, and others).

For the spot markets, we assume a certain percentage of issued tons traded, (For example, 50%-80% depending
on standard and year of issuance), and the turnover of each of those tons (1.2-1.5 times). We define turnover as the
number of times a specific credit has changed hands over the year. Statistics on American Carbon Registry credits
come from the group’s website.

For the forward market, we assume a percentage of 2009 reductions (based on the CPMNA pipeline) that were
purchased as part of a forward contract, then applied a weighted average number of years of the forward strip
(usually between 2 or 3 years). OTC prices are derived from CPMNA’s monthly price reports. For forward contracts,
we include all volumes for the contract. For example, a three-year strip of 10,000 tons delivered annually, signed
in 2009, was counted as 30,000 in volume for the year 2009.

In the top-down approach, Point Carbon surveyed leading participants to find information on the OTC market.
The participants responded to four questions, the first of which asked about the 2009 market size for US based
projects trading on the OTC market. Responses broke down trading volumes by standard. The survey also required
the participants to break those volumes down by spot vs. forward markets. Point Carbon targeted the handful of
participants that would be able to provide a “total view” of the marketplace. There were a total of 6 participants,
which includes among others, TerraPass, CantorCO2e, and Environmental Credit Corp. The remaining three
participants indicated to Point Carbon that they wished to remain anonymous. Like in the bottom-up approach,
OTC prices were taken from the monthly price reports from the CPMNA product.

The results from both processes were equally weighted with regards to the OTC market (outside of ACR and CCX,
which have publically listed volume data).

Key differences in approaches: The bottom-up and top-down approaches yielded similar results, except for the OTC
spot volumes for CAR and VCS. Point Carbon’s calculations found larger spot volumes than the survey showed.
This difference may arise from the fact that spot credits are more likely to transact in the bilateral market and not
through intermediaries, therefore not as easily in view of the respondents. Looking at the total issued credits
during 2009 and 2008, we assumed a percentage of that amount would be transacted in 2009.

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Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

conspired to hold back demand. On


the other side of the transaction,
Table 6: Over-the-counter US offset prices throughout 2009
sellers have been hesitant to drop
their prices, betting that they can Prices are for US based projects. Price ranges are aggregated from transaction information
provided by buyers, sellers, brokers, and traders of offsets in the US, reported on a monthly basis.
fetch more value after cap-and-trade These prices reflect a primary market price, meaning that the offsets are sold directly from the
passes. Consequently, buyers and project. Point Carbon uses a mid-market price here.
sellers have had trouble meeting
in the middle and agreeing on a OTC spot
transaction price, and bid and ask market $/t OTC forward market $/t
spreads have been wide. (vintage 2008 (2009 vintage CAR credits)
and earlier)
Prices in the US offset CAR VCS Landfill Livestock California California

markets methane methane livestock forestry


methane
Bolstered by the emergence of 1Q09 $7.3 $5.0 $6.3 $6.7 $7.5 --
a variety of new protocols, offset Average
2Q09 $6.0 $4.6 $6.4 $6.7 $7.3 --
registries, and federal cap-and-trade mid-market
bills, US offset markets were set for 3Q09 $5.1 $3.9 $6.6 $7.1 $8.0 $8.3
price
a strong year in 2009. Unfortunately, 4Q09 $5.2 $2.8 $7.2 $7.4 $7.5 $7.8
the positive momentum stopped Source: Carbon Project Manager North America
short as the year progressed. A tough
economic climate and weakening Table 7: Four determinants of offset eligibility
chances for a federal cap-and-trade bill
diminished enthusiasm and demand. Standards Project type Location Vintage
year
Consequently, it was a mixed market.
Prices on the spot market fell for High CAR, RGGI Forestry, Livestock California 2009+
Methane, Coal Mine
US offset credits in 2009. As Table Methane, Landfill
6 illustrates, the mid-market price Methane
for the CAR credits fell 29 percent Eligibility into
Medium VCS, CCX, Soil Sequestration, Small Rest 2001-
over the 12 months. VCS credits fell a mandatory ACR, Gold scale Energy Efficiency, of the 2009
even more steeply, at 44 percent. cap-and-trade Standard, Fuel Switching, Industrial country
CDM Gases
CCX CFIs dropped a staggering 91 regime
percent in 2009 on the exchange Low Project- Renewable Energy, -- Pre-2001
Specific Large Scale Energy
(from $1.65/t to $0.15/t for Vintage Standards Efficiency, Carbon
2008 CFIs). Capture and Storage
Source: Carbon Project Manager North America
On the other hand, some forward
and future markets fared better. The
rose while vintage 2008 spot prices $0.20 to $1.00 beyond the exchange
forward prices for a 2009 vintage
declined. For more on policy, see price. Though prices were negotiated
credit from the Climate Action
Textbox 6. off-exchange, contracts cleared
Reserve—known as Climate Reserve
on-exchange and appeared in the
Tonnes (CRTs)—rose during the Along similar lines, CCX prices fell exchange volume numbers.
year, for both landfill and livestock further than other standards, as it
methane projects. On the CCFE, CRT
contracts for reductions taking place
was unclear whether CFIs would Price determinants
be eligible for early action credits
in 2009 (known as vintage 2009) also in a federal cap-and-trade scheme. Buyers took great care in valuing
rose in value to $7.70 in their initial Low CCX prices then gave way to projects in 2009. This is especially
introductory price of $6.50 in the a two-tiered market for CFIs in the true for those hoping to purchase
spring. For OTC prices, Table 6 shows second half of the year, allowing US credits that will be eligible for future
a breakdown by quarter in 2009. Two offset projects to sell their CFIs in a compliance. For pre-compliance
prominent bills gave 2009 vintage “privately negotiated” deal at a slight credits, there are four main factors
offsets preference in terms of premium to the official exchange that determine value: the project
eligibility versus earlier years, which price. The premium ranged from standard, project type, its location,
explains why 2009 vintage forwards

9 All rights reserved © 2010 Point Carbon


Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

and the year in which the reduction


took place (also known as vintage).
Textbox 6: Federal cap-and-trade policy and the treatment of offsets
Table 7 explains eligibility of projects
as determined by policy. The “Waxman-Markey” Bill: The American Clean Energy and Security Act
(H.R. 2454), also known as the Waxman-Markey Bill, passed out of the
Standards. Certain standards, based
House of Representatives on June 26, 2009, and contained a number of
on language in existing federal bills,
provisions regarding offsets. For project types, it explicitly lists eligible
would be grandfathered into the
categories, but grants final decision-making power to the Environmental
scheme. For instance, the Climate
Protection Agency and the US Department of Agriculture. The bill stipulates
Action Reserve (CAR) standard is
that the EPA would regulate all significant sources of methane, which
recognized as eligible in both the
includes most large landfill methane and coal mine methane projects,
Kerry-Boxer and Waxman-Markey
taking away their eligibility as offset projects.
bills. Therefore, CAR tends to trade
at the highest prices. The bill also specifies that standards created through state government
action would be eligible, which included CAR and RGGI standards. There is
Project types. The congressional bills no explicit guarantee that the VCS, CCX, ACR, or the Gold Standard would
specifically mention eligible project be eligible.
types, and with the momentum of
many projects getting off the ground The text indicates that early action emission reductions which took place
after January 1, 2009 would be eligible for a 1:1 compliance under a federal
currently, projects such as forestry
scheme in 2012. The projects would need to have started after January 1,
and methane capture from landfills,
2001. Offsets created before 2009 but after 2001 could be exchanged for
livestock waste, and coal mine are
monetary value, based on average value of credits from 2006 – 2009.
at the top of the list. Table 6 shows
that forestry commands the highest The Kerry-Boxer Bill: The Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act
prices followed by livestock methane (S. 1733), also known as the Kerry-Boxer bill, passed out of the Senate
and then landfill methane. Forestry Environment and Public Works Committee in November. Like H.R. 2454,
provides other environmental it lists eligible project types, but it also stipulates that many sources of
services (biodiversity, etc) which landfill and coal mine methane would not be directly regulated by law,
helps it sell at a higher value, allowing those projects to continue to reduce emissions as offset projects.
especially in the voluntary markets.
The Kerry-Boxer bill keeps the same eligibility requirements for offset
Landfill methane, on the other hand,
standards and vintages. For pre-2009 credits, Kerry-Boxer specifically
trades at a discount since it may be sets aside allowances to compensate those that purchased those credits,
regulated by the EPA in the future. which Point Carbon estimates would be close to $525 million dollars.
This would render it ineligible for
offset creation.
vintages) fell. likely to be eligible for compliance
Location. During the year, price tiers under the federal proposals, volume
developed between California projects Rising supplies for an of supply from projects amounted to
and those from other states. Buyers 22 Mt CO2e.
perceived California offsets as a American appetite
backstop, since the state government The project pipeline in the CPMNA
The Waxman-Markey and Kerry- database (see Chart 1) shows growth
would fall back on its state-level
Boxer bills allow up to 2 billion tons at approximately 3 million metric tons
climate legislation if federal level policy
of offsets to be used for compliance CO2e per year from 2009 to 2012.
failed. All else equal, this created a
each year, much of it coming from Funded by forward-thinking project
$0.50-$1.00/t premium in the forward
domestic sources. Though the developers and carbon funds, the
market.
US supply is growing, it is still far largest year-to-year growth happened
Vintage. The preferred vintages were below limits spelled out in federal between 2007 and 2008 as these
2009 and beyond, since both pieces legislation. players began to enter the market.
of federal legislation allow those
vintages to be grandfathered into the Growth in supply Project types: Methane and
scheme on a 1:1 basis. For CAR, this beyond
According to Point Carbon’s database,
partly explains why forward markets
carbon offset projects produced 29
gained while the spot markets (which Methane capture projects make up
Mt CO2e in 2009. For project types
predominately traded pre-2009 roughly half of the CPMNA database

10 All rights reserved © 2010 Point Carbon


Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

pipeline in 2009. Landfill gas projects


in particular were most prolific, Chart 1: Supply of US-based offset reductions, Vintage years 2005 to 2010
reducing 9 Mt CO2e in 2009, or 34
percent of the total reductions that 35 Project types
year. In addition, projects which above the dotted
line are not likely
capture methane from livestock 30 to be eligible for
waste or coal mines both produced Federal Cap-and-
Trade
roughly 2 Mt CO2e respectively in 25 Other
2009.
Energy Efficiency

New protocols from CAR, VCS, and 20


Renewable Energy
ACR helped build supply for forestry Mt CO2e Enhanced Oil Recovery
projects as well. The 2009 supply of 15
Forestry
forestry provided less than 2 tons of
Industrial Gases
credits to market, 6 percent of the 10
total. Agricultural Methane

Soil Sequestration
5
A significant portion of supply Coal Mine Methane
volume in 2009 came from enhanced
Landfill Methane
oil recovery projects, though their 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
applicability for future cap-and-trade
Source: Carbon Project Manager North America
schemes is still in question. Industrial
gases and soil sequestration projects
have the ability to greatly expand the
Chart 2: 2009 reductions by project type
supply and bring it closer to the limits
set out by legislation, though they are
Renewable Energy Efficiency, Other, 0%
relatively small at the moment. Energy, 4% 3%

Standards: Headed for Forestry, 6%

consolidation?
Industrial
In 2009, carbon offset standards in
Gases, 6%
the US exhibited a tendency for both Landfill Methane,
consolidation and expansion. For Livestock 34%
compliance-ready offsets, buyers Methane, 7%
displayed increased preference Coal Mine
for the Climate Action Reserve, as Methane, 8%
reflected in its growth. However,
Voluntary Carbon Standard, Chicago Soil Enhanced Oil
Climate Exchange, and American Sequestration, Recovery, 17%
Carbon Standard continued to play a 14%
strong role in the market. In addition,
a number of standards gained a Source: Carbon Project Manager North America
foothold, including Green-e climate,
GHG Services, Canadian Standards 2010, 0.5 Mt of credits were issued CCX had the largest volume and the
Association (ISO 14064) and Climate for vintage 2009 offsets, including second largest number of projects,
Community ad Biodiversity Alliance forest management, landfill gas with 8 Mt of CO2e of domestic
(CCBA). capture/combustion, and livestock offset reductions in 2009. The largest
methane. There were 161 projects volume within CCX came from soil
For the four main standards in the listed on the CAR registry managed sequestration projects. A number of
US, 2009 was a pivotal year: by APX. Chart 3 displays the issued projects have moved from CCX to
vs. pipeline volume for CAR for CAR to take advantage of the higher
Climate Action Reserve. CAR vintage years 2008 through 2010. prices for CAR project credits.
accounted for roughly 7 Mt CO2e of
the 2009 reductions. As of Feb 22, Chicago Climate Exchange. The Voluntary Carbon Standard. VCS has

11 All rights reserved © 2010 Point Carbon


Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

the fourth largest volume with 2 Mt


CO2e total reductions. The VCS works Chart 3: Issued versus pipeline reductions for CAR and VCS by vintage year
with three registries – APX, Markit
9.0
Environmental, and Caisse des
Dépôts - to list its US and international 8.0
projects. Chart 3 displays the issued
vs. pipeline volume for VCS for years 7.0
2008 through 2010.
6.0

American Carbon Standard. 5.0

Mt CO2e
The standard associated with
the American Carbon Registry 4.0 Pipeline
Issued
recently became a part of Winrock
3.0
International. The ACR pipeline
features enhanced oil recovery 2.0
projects generating most of the
credits, with reforestation projects 1.0

bringing in some additional supply of


0.0
late. VCS CAR VCS CAR VCS CAR

V2008 V2009 V2010


Location: Where does the
Sources: Issued credits are provided by CAR and VCS registries. Pipeline numbers are sourced
supply come from? from Carbon Project Manager North America. Numbers sourced as of 2/22/10.

Figure 1 shows that there are a


number of states that stand to benefit
from carbon offsets. For instance,
states with oil resources have Figure 1: Map of US with offset volumes in 2009
generated offsets from enhanced
oil recovery. Texas is home to nearly
0 - 0.5 Mt CO2 2.0 - 3.0 Mt CO2
4 Mt CO2e reductions in 2009,
most of the volume coming from 0.5 - 1.0 Mt CO2 3.0 - 4.0 Mt CO2
five enhanced oil recovery (EOR) 1.0 - 2.0 Mt CO2
projects. Over 3 Mt CO2e being
generated from Wyoming in 2009,
but similar to Texas, 97 percent of the
state’s reductions are attributable to
three EOR projects.

Another notable source of projects


is California, where expectations
of state-level cap-and-trade have
cultivated a sustainable appetite for
early action projects. Because landfills
will likely be regulated as a stationary
Source: Carbon Project Manager North America
source in California, only six projects
in the state derive reductions from
sway over pricing and transaction
landfill methane capture. California Demand for offsets: Funds volumes.
has the largest concentration of dairy
waste and forestry projects.
do the heavy lifting
However, the demand side is not well
Buyers, ranging from utilities to understood. Aside from registries
Mid-western states have a number
hedge funds to carbon neutral such as the American Carbon
of soil and grassland sequestration
travelers, are a crucial part of the US Registry, which list buyers and
projects, while the states of the
offset market. With many sellers and credits transferred, that side of the
Mississippi Alluvial Valley have many
fewer purchasers, they hold unusual transaction is often unknown. This
opportunities for forestry projects.
section of the report intends to shed

12 All rights reserved © 2010 Point Carbon


Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

more light on demand by providing


input from surveyed players who see Chart 4: Who were the primary market buyers in 2009?
all sides of the transactions.

Who are the buyers? Retail


Buyers,
Emitters. This category includes
utilities, industrials, refiners, and 6%
Carbon
manufacturers who are the largest aggregators &
sources of greenhouse gases. project
Financial intermediaries. Hedge
Emitters, 25% developers,
funds, commodity funds, traders, 39%
and banks all fit into this category.

Carbon project developers and


aggregators. These companies
include project developers, carbon Liquidity
aggregators, and carbon funds. This Providers, 30%
group focuses specifically on the
carbon market.

Retail buyers. Included in this


category are organizations or Source: Survey
individuals that hope to reduce or
eliminate their relatively small carbon expertise, this is not too surprising. One surprise was the high level of pre-
footprints. Once policy is in place, their role is compliance buying for CCX projects.
expected to grow considerably. This may be driven by bargain hunters
Our survey asked for the relative who see the relatively low prices as
proportion of purchases made in Retail buyers accounted for only 6 an opportunity to buy an offset that
the primary market by players from percent of demand, a relatively small has a chance for compliance down
each of these categories. Primary piece of the pie. The primary markets the road.
transactions are defined as purchases are not suited for buyers with relatively
coming directly from the project itself, small appetites. They may be better Table 8 shows that in 2009, pre-
when the ownership of the credits has served by purchasing through an compliance volumes were roughly 59
changed hands for the first time. This aggregator or website. percent of the total volumes and 66
is opposed to secondary transactions, percent of the market in 2009.
which occur after the initial purchase Why are they buying?
has been made.
Our targeted survey asked participants
2010: Two roads diverged
According to our survey respondents, to provide a view of the buyers’ 2010 is expected to be a watershed
the leading buyers in the primary motivations, dividing purchases of US- year for North American offset
market were carbon funds and based offset credit into pre-compliance markets. As US federal cap-and-trade
developers. They collectively made up versus voluntary transactions. policy approaches a make-or-break
39 percent of transactions, followed For greater granularity, the survey showdown in the Senate, North
closely by financial intermediaries at separated the answers by standard. American offset markets will react
30 percent, and then emitters at 25. accordingly. Passage will lead to
Far behind them were retail buyers, Based on the responses, presented growth in supply and trading, while
who provided only 6 percent of the in Chart 5, purchases of Climate failure of such legislation will dampen
primary demand (see Chart 4). Action Reserve and the Chicago activity.
Climate Exchange tons were
The respondents indicated that primarily driven by pre-compliance Any discussion of a forecast for
emitters have thus far played a buyers. Meanwhile, the VCS and US-based offset markets in 2010
relatively minor role. Given that many the American Carbon Registry saw is inevitably a policy discussion.
emitters are risk-averse by nature, and greater demand from voluntary There are four policy questions that
may also not have in-house trading buyers for US-based projects. will determine the future of offset

13 All rights reserved © 2010 Point Carbon


Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

markets:
Chart 5: Pre-compliance vs. voluntary purchases by offset standard
Will cap-and-trade pass? Though
most media outlets have written its Pre-compliance Voluntary
epitaph, cap-and-trade is not dead.
Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Joseph
Lieberman (I-CT), and John Kerry Climate Action Reserve 74% 26%
(D-MA) continue to work towards
a bipartisan climate bill, and have
shown no intention of stopping.
Voluntary Carbon Standard 42% 58%
However, legislative priorities—such
as financial reform, job creation, and
health care—will take up much of the
Senate calendar, meaning that time 40%
Chicago Climate Exchange 60%
is short. Point Carbon maintains a
forecast of 20 percent that a cap-and-
trade program will pass in Congress
in 2010. American Carbon Registry 25% 75%

If a bill passes, what will it look


like? A compromise that manages 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
to pass would likely set lower targets Source: Survey
than the Waxman-Markey bill. Offsets
would also have a strong role in Table 8: Pre-compliance versus voluntary in 2009
most scenarios, given their ability to
benefit agricultural interests. It may 2009 Pre-compliance 2009 Voluntary
possibly morph into a hybrid system Volumes Market Volumes Market
with components of a carbon tax, (Mt CO2e) value ($M) (Mt CO2e) value ($M)
incorporating ideas from “cap-and-
CCX: CFI 3.8 $3.5 2.6 $2.3
dividend” proposals. The most likely
outcome, though, is a simple cap- Contracts
and-trade program limited to the Exchange based CAR: CRT 0.6 $3.0 0.2 $1.0
power sector. Contracts
Subtotal 4.5 $6.4 2.8 $3.3
Will the Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) regulate GHGs? The
EPA is under a legal mandate to CAR 5.3 $35.7 1.9 $12.5
proceed via the Clean Air Act with VCS 0.9 $4.1 1.2 $5.6
GHG regulation unless Congress OTC and bilateral
ACR 0.4 $0.9 1.3 $2.7
steps in. EPA regulation may be markets
stopped by Congress or delayed due Other 0.2 $0.5 0.9 $1.9
to legal challenges. Either way, we Subtotal 6.9 $41.2 5.3 $22.6
anticipate the EPA will continue to be
at the heart of the debate, but that
the actual regulation would still be far Total 11.3 $47.6 8.1 $26.0
off. Source: Carbon Project Manager North America, survey

Will the regional programs step


up? RGGI and the Western Climate about cap-and-trade as their federal core group of states.
Initiative had originally positioned counterparts, and might not support a
themselves as a viable alternative program that could potentially put their For more information, please see Point
to federal action under the previous state at a competitive disadvantage. Carbon’s North American research
administration. However, state Nevertheless, if regional programs do reports, including Will the EPA Go All
legislators are to a large extent go ahead, we expect their borders will the Way and Plan B - Going it Alone:
experiencing the same qualms be re-drawn and narrowed down to a Regional Programs in North America,

14 All rights reserved © 2010 Point Carbon


Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

which can be found at http://www.


pointcarbon.com/research/cmana.
Table 9: 2010 for two different scenarios
Market volumes and value in
2010 2010 scenario 1 2010 scenario 2

Based on the input from the Volumes Market Volumes Market


targeted survey, Point Carbon has (t CO2e) value ($) (t CO2e) value ($)
two separate forecasts for 2010, CCX: CFI contracts 19 $17 3 $3
one based on a scenario where cap- Exchange CAR: CRT contracts 4 $20 1 $6
and-trade is passed in June of 2010,
based Subtotal 23 $37 4 $9
and the other assuming it does not
pass. This is further broken down YTY growth 223% 279% -40% -10%
by standard. Point Carbon assumed
2009 prices to remain the same in CAR 35 $237 11 $72
2010, adding only cost-of-carry.
VCS 4 $21 3 $12
OTC and
The two scenarios represent two ACR 3 $5 1 $2
divergent paths that the market could bilateral
Other 5 $10 1 $1
take. In scenario one, tremendous markets
Subtotal 47 $273 15 $88
growth will come with policy
certainty and demand from natural YTY growth 287% 328% 24% 38%
buyers, resulting in 263 percent
growth in volume and 321 percent Total 70 $310 19 $97
growth in value. In scenario two,
trading volume will stay flat with YTY growth 263% 321% -0% 31%

market value beginning to level off


at 31 percent growth. See Table 9 for Source: Carbon Project Manager North America, survey
detail on this forecast.

Conclusion: The road not legislative initiatives. as buyers and developers, and the
market will flourish with renewed
yet taken In the backdrop of tremendous policy vigor.
uncertainty, the next five months will
The year 2009 began with optimism.
define the future of cap-and-trade in Therefore, in the year ahead, anything
US Offset supplies were growing,
the US. If legislation falters, volumes from top to bottom is possible. With
RGGI allowances had begun trading
will slide and developers will look to so much still hidden behind the mist,
in earnest, and Congress was
consolidate in order to survive. If it US offset players could be compared
seriously taking up climate legislation.
succeeds, the offset market will more to pioneers who have “taken a road
Unfortunately, the optimism soon
than triple size in our estimation, less traveled.” It remains to be seen
gave way to uncertainty and a
with the early actors able to enjoy whether the country will follow in
measure of frustration, when
the spoils of their investments. their footsteps, for that will make all
Senators began to prioritize other
Emitters will move aggressively, both the difference.

15 All rights reserved © 2010 Point Carbon


Carbon Market Analyst North America CMA March 1, 2010

Acronym List
ACR American Carbon Registry
CAR Climate Action Reserve
CCBA Climate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance
CCFE Chicago Climate Futures Exchange
CCS Carbon Capture and Storage
CCX Chicago Climate Exchange
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CFI Carbon Financial Instrument (credits from the Chicago Climate
Exchange)
CMM Coal Mine Methane
CO2e CO2 Equivalent
CPMNA Carbon Project Manager North America
CRT Climate Reserve Tonne (credits from the Climate Action Reserve)
EOR Enhanced Oil Recovery
ERPA Emissions Reductions Purchase Agreement
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GS The Gold Standard
HFC Hydrofluorocarbon
KB Kerry-Boxer bill; The Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act
ODS Ozone Destroying Substances
OTC Over-The-Counter
PFC Perfluorocarbon
RGGI Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
VCS Voluntary Carbon Standard
WCI Western Climate Initiative

16 All rights reserved © 2010 Point Carbon


Contacts CMA March 1, 2010

Editorial inquiries Offices Representatives


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jf@pointcarbon.com Point Carbon North America JPower
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Copyright © 2010, by Point Carbon.

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The data provided in this report were prepared by Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and Research division. Publications of Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and
Research division are provided for information purposes only. Prices are indicative and Point Carbon does not offer to buy or sell or solicit offers to buy or sell any
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