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US Offset Markets in 2010:
RESEARCH The Road Not Yet Taken
March 1, 2010
Disclaimer
The data provided in this report were prepared by Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and Research division. Publications of Point Carbon’s Trading
Analytics and Research division are provided for informational purposes only. Prices are indicative and Point Carbon does not offer to buy or
sell or solicit offers to buy or sell any financial instrument or offer recommendations to purchase, hold or sell any commodity or make any
other investment decision. Other than disclosures relating to Point Carbon, the information contained in this publication has been obtained
from sources that Point Carbon believes to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or
completeness of this information. The opinions and views expressed in this publication are those of Point Carbon and are subject to change
without notice, and Point Carbon has no obligation to update either the opinions or the information contained in this publication.
Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and Research division receives compensation for its reports. Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and Research
division reports are published on a subscription basis and are not issued at the request of any client of Point Carbon.
Executive summary
While federal cap-and-trade legislation faces an unclear contracts for Climate Action Reserve 2009 vintage
future in the US, a growing number of American offset credits actually gained 13 percent during the year.
projects are moving ahead and generating carbon credits
from greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction projects. These Supplies of offset credits continued to grow unabated.
credits originate from a wide array of project types and In 2009, 29 Mt CO2e in reductions came from US
locations, with the help of verifiers and registries who offset projects, according to Carbon Project Manager
certify the credits to one of a handful of standards. North America, Point Carbon’s North American offset
product which features a database of offset projects
Transactions of credits from US offset projects reached in North America. This supply represents a growth of
19.4 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e) 13 percent from 2008, and a 63 percent growth from
in 2009, worth $74 million (see Table 1). To put this 2007. Methane-based reductions comprised the largest
number in perspective, the size of the total US carbon share of supply—49 percent of the total pipeline—with
market, including allowance volumes under the forestry taking up 6 percent. The four major offset
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and the standards together shared the bulk of the reductions,
Chicago Climate Exchange, was 841 Mt CO2e, valued with no single standard accounting for a majority of the
at $2.7 billion. Policy uncertainty at the federal level, and reductions in 2009.
consequently a lack of a compliance-driven appetite for
carbon credits, continued to hold the US offset market On the demand side, Point Carbon surveyed a small
back. but influential group of players who possess a good
view of both the sell side and the buy side. Based on
The delay in climate legislation at the federal level also the responses, “pre-compliance” purchases made up
had an effect on credit prices on the spot markets. The 65 percent of the total primary market. The remaining
Chicago Climate Exchange, Voluntary Carbon Standard, purchases were “voluntary,” where the buyers wished
and Climate Action Reserve saw spot prices drop 91 to simply reduce their carbon footprint. When these
percent, 44 percent, and 29 percent respectively findings are applied to the size of the US market, Point
over the course of 2009. On the other hand, forward Carbon finds that the US pre-compliance market traded
$48 million worth of credits in 2009, compared to $26
Table 1: Size of the US offset market in 2009 million for the voluntary market.
Volumes That same research also uncovered that carbon funds
Value ($M)
(Mt CO2e) and aggregators were the main buyers of primary
CCX CFIs 6.4 $5.8 offsets credits, with 39 percent of transactions. They
were followed closely by financial intermediaries at 30
Exchange Based CAR 0.8 $4.0
percent, and then emitters at 25 percent. Far behind
Subtotal 7.2 $9.8
them were individual and organizational retail buyers,
who provided only 6 percent of the primary demand.
CAR 7.2 $48.2
Looking forward to 2010, we break down our growth
VCS 2.1 $9.7
forecast into two different scenarios, one where cap-
OTC and Bilateral
ACR 1.8 $3.5 and-trade passes in June of 2010, and the other where
Markets
Other 1.1 $2.4 it does not. In the first scenario, Point Carbon forecasts
263 percent growth in volume and 321 percent growth
Subtotal 12.2 $63.8
in value year to year. In the other scenario, we see
trading volumes stay flat and market value starting to
Total 19.4 $73.6 level off at 31 percent growth.
Introduction:
the path ahead Textbox 1: Cap-and-trade programs and the role of offsets
Proponents of a US Climate Bill
could be forgiven for being a little A cap-and-trade program is a market-based mechanism designed to
discouraged. Though still convinced reduce the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by implementing an
that sweeping legislation will emissions cap. The system administrator issues allowances that are
eventually pass, many have already usually denominated in tons of carbon dioxide, which altogether add up
battled through bitter debates, horse to the targeted emissions totals. Allowances can be allocated freely or
trading, and political theater to come auctioned.
to what is now a muddled midpoint.
For each ton of CO2e that a company emits, it must turn in one allowance
Challenges have come from both the (known as “true-up”). To meet their cap, regulated entities can choose
political right—who fear higher energy to reduce emissions internally or purchase additional allowances. If a
costs, government intrusion, and a facility over-achieves its target, it can sell its excess allowances. In this
silencing of scientific dissent—as way, the system allows the entities with the lowest marginal cost of
well as the political left, who contend GHG abatement to benefit, allowing others with higher costs to purchase
that the leading bills are too weak and allowances on the market.
bend too closely to Wall Street. A third option allows covered entities in a cap-and-trade program to use
carbon offset credits to meet their commitments in place of allowances.
Across party lines, many players
Offset credits originate from project-based activities in uncapped sectors,
are keenly fixed on one mechanism
and represent GHG emission reductions additional to what would happen
within the leading cap-and-trade bills:
in a business as usual scenario. This is known as “additionality.” An
carbon offsets. Offsets represent
offset credit is a tradable carbon instrument equal to one metric ton of
a reduction of GHG emissions that
CO2 equivalent emission reductions (CO2e). Retiring an offset effectively
would not have happened otherwise.
reduces emissions, and therefore reduces the obligation to purchase one
Offset credits are allowed in most
incremental allowance.
GHG cap-and-trade systems as
a substitute for an emissions
allowance.
Chicago Climate,
Voluntary Carbon Climate Action American
Gold Standard Climate Community &
Standard Reserve Carbon Registry
Exchange Biodiversity
Accounting CDM CDM 10 CAR specific 10 CCX ACR, CDM, VCS, 17 Criteria
Methodology methodologies methodologies project protocols, specific project EPA Climate
1 forthcoming protocols Leaders protocols
Registry Administered Administered by APX, Administered by Not available to Administered by Administered
by APX Markit Environmental, APX public ACR by CCBA
Caisse des Dépôts
Credits issued for 0 0.7 1.4 5.3 7.9 Does not
2008 Reductions in issue credits
US (Mt) (as of 2/22/10)
Credits issued for 0 1.3 0.5 1.9 2.9 Does not
2009 Reductions in issue credits
US (Mt) (as of 2/22/10)
Sources: Carbon Project Manager North America, APX, Markit Environmental, Caisse des Dépôts, CCBA, Gold Standard, VCS, CCX, ACR
There are many assumptions and calculations behind the volume and value figures presented in this report. Below
are the most significant.
Exchange-traded information: The Chicago Climate Exchange and the Green Exchange/CME Group provided raw
data. To calculate the portion of offsets traded in CFI contracts (since CFIs can either be allowances or offsets), we
assume that 15 percent of total spot, futures, and options trades were for offset transactions. This is based on the
statement that 15 percent of reductions by capped CCX members were achieved through the purchase of offsets
(as stated by Stockholm Environment Institute).
To further narrow the offsets volumes down to those only originating from US-based offsets, we multiply the total
CFI offset volume by 68 percent, proportion of US offsets in the total CCX offset pool in 2009.
Prices for spot and futures contracts were based on the average daily price for 2009. For futures, we averaged
the prices of all contracts with 2009 and 2010 settlement dates. Since option prices vary depending on strike
price, length of time, and whether a call or put, Point Carbon took the price (averaged over the year) of the most
commonly traded contract for each unique underlying carbon instrument (CFI, CRT, etc).
For CCX and CCFE options data, we multiplied the volumes by a “delta equivalent” factor to account for the
difference between current price and strike price, which determines how likely it is that the option will be exercised.
OTC information: Our OTC volume calculations combine “bottom-up” and “top-down” approaches. The bottom-up
approach is based on the pipeline of projects in the Carbon Project Manager North America (CPMNA) database,
broken down by standard (CAR, VCS, and others).
For the spot markets, we assume a certain percentage of issued tons traded, (For example, 50%-80% depending
on standard and year of issuance), and the turnover of each of those tons (1.2-1.5 times). We define turnover as the
number of times a specific credit has changed hands over the year. Statistics on American Carbon Registry credits
come from the group’s website.
For the forward market, we assume a percentage of 2009 reductions (based on the CPMNA pipeline) that were
purchased as part of a forward contract, then applied a weighted average number of years of the forward strip
(usually between 2 or 3 years). OTC prices are derived from CPMNA’s monthly price reports. For forward contracts,
we include all volumes for the contract. For example, a three-year strip of 10,000 tons delivered annually, signed
in 2009, was counted as 30,000 in volume for the year 2009.
In the top-down approach, Point Carbon surveyed leading participants to find information on the OTC market.
The participants responded to four questions, the first of which asked about the 2009 market size for US based
projects trading on the OTC market. Responses broke down trading volumes by standard. The survey also required
the participants to break those volumes down by spot vs. forward markets. Point Carbon targeted the handful of
participants that would be able to provide a “total view” of the marketplace. There were a total of 6 participants,
which includes among others, TerraPass, CantorCO2e, and Environmental Credit Corp. The remaining three
participants indicated to Point Carbon that they wished to remain anonymous. Like in the bottom-up approach,
OTC prices were taken from the monthly price reports from the CPMNA product.
The results from both processes were equally weighted with regards to the OTC market (outside of ACR and CCX,
which have publically listed volume data).
Key differences in approaches: The bottom-up and top-down approaches yielded similar results, except for the OTC
spot volumes for CAR and VCS. Point Carbon’s calculations found larger spot volumes than the survey showed.
This difference may arise from the fact that spot credits are more likely to transact in the bilateral market and not
through intermediaries, therefore not as easily in view of the respondents. Looking at the total issued credits
during 2009 and 2008, we assumed a percentage of that amount would be transacted in 2009.
Soil Sequestration
5
A significant portion of supply Coal Mine Methane
volume in 2009 came from enhanced
Landfill Methane
oil recovery projects, though their 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
applicability for future cap-and-trade
Source: Carbon Project Manager North America
schemes is still in question. Industrial
gases and soil sequestration projects
have the ability to greatly expand the
Chart 2: 2009 reductions by project type
supply and bring it closer to the limits
set out by legislation, though they are
Renewable Energy Efficiency, Other, 0%
relatively small at the moment. Energy, 4% 3%
consolidation?
Industrial
In 2009, carbon offset standards in
Gases, 6%
the US exhibited a tendency for both Landfill Methane,
consolidation and expansion. For Livestock 34%
compliance-ready offsets, buyers Methane, 7%
displayed increased preference Coal Mine
for the Climate Action Reserve, as Methane, 8%
reflected in its growth. However,
Voluntary Carbon Standard, Chicago Soil Enhanced Oil
Climate Exchange, and American Sequestration, Recovery, 17%
Carbon Standard continued to play a 14%
strong role in the market. In addition,
a number of standards gained a Source: Carbon Project Manager North America
foothold, including Green-e climate,
GHG Services, Canadian Standards 2010, 0.5 Mt of credits were issued CCX had the largest volume and the
Association (ISO 14064) and Climate for vintage 2009 offsets, including second largest number of projects,
Community ad Biodiversity Alliance forest management, landfill gas with 8 Mt of CO2e of domestic
(CCBA). capture/combustion, and livestock offset reductions in 2009. The largest
methane. There were 161 projects volume within CCX came from soil
For the four main standards in the listed on the CAR registry managed sequestration projects. A number of
US, 2009 was a pivotal year: by APX. Chart 3 displays the issued projects have moved from CCX to
vs. pipeline volume for CAR for CAR to take advantage of the higher
Climate Action Reserve. CAR vintage years 2008 through 2010. prices for CAR project credits.
accounted for roughly 7 Mt CO2e of
the 2009 reductions. As of Feb 22, Chicago Climate Exchange. The Voluntary Carbon Standard. VCS has
Mt CO2e
The standard associated with
the American Carbon Registry 4.0 Pipeline
Issued
recently became a part of Winrock
3.0
International. The ACR pipeline
features enhanced oil recovery 2.0
projects generating most of the
credits, with reforestation projects 1.0
markets:
Chart 5: Pre-compliance vs. voluntary purchases by offset standard
Will cap-and-trade pass? Though
most media outlets have written its Pre-compliance Voluntary
epitaph, cap-and-trade is not dead.
Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Joseph
Lieberman (I-CT), and John Kerry Climate Action Reserve 74% 26%
(D-MA) continue to work towards
a bipartisan climate bill, and have
shown no intention of stopping.
Voluntary Carbon Standard 42% 58%
However, legislative priorities—such
as financial reform, job creation, and
health care—will take up much of the
Senate calendar, meaning that time 40%
Chicago Climate Exchange 60%
is short. Point Carbon maintains a
forecast of 20 percent that a cap-and-
trade program will pass in Congress
in 2010. American Carbon Registry 25% 75%
Conclusion: The road not legislative initiatives. as buyers and developers, and the
market will flourish with renewed
yet taken In the backdrop of tremendous policy vigor.
uncertainty, the next five months will
The year 2009 began with optimism.
define the future of cap-and-trade in Therefore, in the year ahead, anything
US Offset supplies were growing,
the US. If legislation falters, volumes from top to bottom is possible. With
RGGI allowances had begun trading
will slide and developers will look to so much still hidden behind the mist,
in earnest, and Congress was
consolidate in order to survive. If it US offset players could be compared
seriously taking up climate legislation.
succeeds, the offset market will more to pioneers who have “taken a road
Unfortunately, the optimism soon
than triple size in our estimation, less traveled.” It remains to be seen
gave way to uncertainty and a
with the early actors able to enjoy whether the country will follow in
measure of frustration, when
the spoils of their investments. their footsteps, for that will make all
Senators began to prioritize other
Emitters will move aggressively, both the difference.
Acronym List
ACR American Carbon Registry
CAR Climate Action Reserve
CCBA Climate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance
CCFE Chicago Climate Futures Exchange
CCS Carbon Capture and Storage
CCX Chicago Climate Exchange
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CFI Carbon Financial Instrument (credits from the Chicago Climate
Exchange)
CMM Coal Mine Methane
CO2e CO2 Equivalent
CPMNA Carbon Project Manager North America
CRT Climate Reserve Tonne (credits from the Climate Action Reserve)
EOR Enhanced Oil Recovery
ERPA Emissions Reductions Purchase Agreement
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GS The Gold Standard
HFC Hydrofluorocarbon
KB Kerry-Boxer bill; The Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act
ODS Ozone Destroying Substances
OTC Over-The-Counter
PFC Perfluorocarbon
RGGI Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
VCS Voluntary Carbon Standard
WCI Western Climate Initiative
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forwarded or otherwise redistributed without prior written authorization from Point Carbon. See Point Carbon’s “Terms and Conditions” at www.pointcarbon.com
The data provided in this report were prepared by Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and Research division. Publications of Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and
Research division are provided for information purposes only. Prices are indicative and Point Carbon does not offer to buy or sell or solicit offers to buy or sell any
financial instrument or offer recommendations to purchase, hold or sell any commodity or make any other investment decision. Other than disclosures relating to
Point Carbon, the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources that Point Carbon believes to be reliable, but no representation or war-
ranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. The opinions and views expressed in this publication are those of Point
Carbon and are subject to change without notice, and Point Carbon has no obligation to update either the opinions or the information contained in this publication.
Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and Research division receives compensation for its reports. Point Carbon’s Trading Analytics and Research division reports are
published on a subscription basis and are not issued at the request of any client of Point Carbon.