Probabilities are always between 0 and 1, and can be written as fractions, decimals or

percentages.
In this section we will write all probabilities as fractions.
We are only going to look at cases where all the possible outcomes are equally likely,
like rolling a fair dice.
On a fair or unbiased dice, the six possible outcomes each have the same chance of
occuring - they are equally likely.
The words "fair" or "unbiased" mean that all outcomes are equally likely.

To find the probability of a particular event, we use this formula:

Example 1
Imagine we are rolling a fair dice. There are six equally likely
outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
(a) What is the probability of getting a five?
In this case there is only one successful outcome, 5.

(b) What is the probability of getting an even number?

In this case there are 3 successful outcomes, which are 2, 4 and 6.

(c) What is the probability of getting a four or a five?

In this case there are 2 successful outcomes, which are 4 and 5.

Notice that we simplify the fractions in the answers where it is possible to do so.
Example 2
A bag of sweets contains 6 mints and 4 eclairs. One sweet is taken at random from the
bag.
In this case there are ten equally-likely outcomes: six mints and four eclairs.
(a) What is the probability of picking a mint?
As there are six mints in the bag, there are six successful outcomes.

(b) What is the probability of picking an eclair?

As there are four eclairs, there are four successful outcomes.

Mutually Exclusive Events

If A and B are mutually exclusive events,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example 1: A pair of dice is rolled.

What is the probability that the sum of the

numbers rolled is either 7 or 11?

Six outcomes have a sum of 7:
(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)
P(7) = 6/36
Two outcomes have a sum of 11:
(5,6), (6,5)
P(11) = 2/36
The sum of the numbers cannot be 7 and 11 at the same time, so these events are mutually
exclusive.
P(7 or 11) = P(7) + P(11) = 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36 = 2/9

Example 2: A pair of dice is rolled.

What is the probability that the sum of the

numbers rolled is either an even number or a multiple of 3?
Of the 36 possible outcomes, 18 are even sums.
P(even) = 18/36 = 1/2
Sums of 3, 6, 9, and 12 are multiples of 3.
There are 12 sums that are multiples of 3.
P(multiple of 3)= 12/36 = 1/3
However, some of these outcomes appear in both events.
(not mutually exclusive)
The sums that are even and a multiple of 3 are 6 and 12.
There are 6 ordered pairs with these sums.
P(even AND a multiple of 3) = 6/36 = 1/6
P(even OR a multiple of 3) = 18/36 + 12/36 - 6/36 = 24/36 = 2/3

Theorem 1 - Arranging n Objects

In general, n distinct objects can be arranged in n! ways.
Example 2

In how many ways can 4 different resistors be arranged in series?

Answer
[This is very similar to the first Example on this page.]
Since there are 4 objects, the number of ways is

4!=24 ways
Theorem 2 - Number of Permutations
The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time, denoted
by

Prn, where repetitions are not allowed, is given by

Prn=n(n1)(n2)(nr+1)=(nr)!n!
Notes

(1) Pnn=n! (since 0!=1)

(2) Some books use the following notation for the number of permutations:

nPr
and others have:
nP r

Example 3

In how many ways can a supermarket manager display 5 brands of cereals

in 3 spaces on a shelf?
Answer
This is asking for the number of permutations, since we don't want repetitions.
The number of ways is:

P35=(53)!5! =2!5! =60

Example 4

How many different number-plates for cars can be made if each number-plate
contains four of the digits 0 to 9followed by a letter A to Z, assuming that
(a) no repetition of digits is allowed?
(b) repetition of digits is allowed?
Answer
(a) There are 10 possible digits (0,1,2,,9) and we need to take
them 4 at a time. There are 26 letters in the alphabet.
With no repetition, we have:

P41026=(104)!10!26 =6!10!26 =131040

(b) With repetition, we have simply:
(number of digits from 0000 to 9999)26

=10,00026
=260,000
Theorem 3 - Permutations of Different Kinds of Objects

The number of different permutations of n objects of which n1 are of one

kind, n2 are of a second kind, ... nkare of a k-th kind is

n1!n2!n3nk!n!
Example 5

In how many ways can the six letters of the word "mammal" be arranged in a
row?
Answer
We use Theorem 3.
Since there are 3 "m"s and 2 "a"s in the word "mammal", we have:

3!2!6!=60
There is one "L" in "mammal", but it does not affect the answer, since 1! = 1.

Theorem 4 - Arranging Objects in a Circle

There are (n1)! ways to arrange n distinct objects in a circle (where the
clockwise and anti-clockwise arrangements are regarded as distinct.)
Example 6

In how many ways can 5 people be arranged in a circle?

Answer

(51)!=4!=24 ways
Exercises
Exercise 1

In how many ways can 6 girls and 2 boys be arranged in a row

(a) without restriction?

(b) such that the 2 boys are together?
(c) such that the 2 boys are not together?
Answer
(a) This is just 8 people being arranged in a row: 8!=40,320
(b) Regard the 2 boys as one "unit" and so there are 7 "units" to arrange. This
can be done 7!=5040ways.
The boys can be arranged in 2!=2 ways, so the required answer is

7!2!=10,080
(c) There are only 2 possibilities: the boys are together or they are not.
So the number of ways of arranging so that the boys are not together is:

40,32010,080=30,240
Exercise 2

How many numbers greater than 1000 can be formed with the
digits 3,4,6,8,9 if a digit cannot occur more than once in a number?
Answer
This is choosing 4 from 5 (any 4 digit number chosen from 3,4,6,8,9 will
be >1000) plus 5 from 5 (any 5 digit number will be >1000), where
order is important.
So the number of ways we can arrange the given digits so that our resulting
number is greater than 1000such that no digit occurs more than once, is:

P45+P55=(54)!5!+(55)!5!

=1!5!+0!5!
=240
Exercise 3

How many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow and 2 blue bulbs be arranged in
a string of Christmas tree lights with 9 sockets?
Answer
We use Theorem 3:

n1!n2!n3!nk!n!
So

3!4!2!9!=1260
Exercise 4

In how many ways can 5 people be arranged in a circle such that two people
must sit together?
Answer
Regard the 2 people who sit together as one "unit" and the other 3 people
as 3 "units". Arrange 4 "units" in a circle:

(41)!=3!=6 ways
Number of permutations of 2 people who sit together: 2!=2
So

62=12 ways