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Summary
Lancet Oncol 2012; 13: 790801
Published Online
June 1, 2012
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/
S1470-2045(12)70211-5
See Comment page 745
Section of Cancer Information,
International Agency for
Research on Cancer, Lyon,
France (F Bray PhD, J Ferlay ME,
D Forman PhD); and
Department of Surveillance
and Health Policy Research,
American Cancer Society,
Atlanta, GA, USA (A Jemal PhD,
N Grey PhD)
Correspondence to:
Dr Freddie Bray, Section of
Cancer Information,
International Agency for
Research on Cancer, 150 cours
Albert Thomas, 69372,
Lyon Cedex 08, France
brayf@iarc.fr
Background Cancer is set to become a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the coming decades in every region
of the world. We aimed to assess the changing patterns of cancer according to varying levels of human development.
Methods We used four levels (low, medium, high, and very high) of the Human Development Index (HDI), a
composite indicator of life expectancy, education, and gross domestic product per head, to highlight cancer-specic
patterns in 2008 (on the basis of GLOBOCAN estimates) and trends 19882002 (on the basis of the series in Cancer
Incidence in Five Continents), and to produce future burden scenario for 2030 according to projected demographic
changes alone and trends-based changes for selected cancer sites.
Findings In the highest HDI regions in 2008, cancers of the female breast, lung, colorectum, and prostate accounted
for half the overall cancer burden, whereas in medium HDI regions, cancers of the oesophagus, stomach, and liver
were also common, and together these seven cancers comprised 62% of the total cancer burden in medium to very
high HDI areas. In low HDI regions, cervical cancer was more common than both breast cancer and liver cancer.
Nine dierent cancers were the most commonly diagnosed in men across 184 countries, with cancers of the prostate,
lung, and liver being the most common. Breast and cervical cancers were the most common in women. In medium
HDI and high HDI settings, decreases in cervical and stomach cancer incidence seem to be oset by increases in the
incidence of cancers of the female breast, prostate, and colorectum. If the cancer-specic and sex-specic trends
estimated in this study continue, we predict an increase in the incidence of all-cancer cases from 127 million new
cases in 2008 to 222 million by 2030.
Interpretation Our ndings suggest that rapid societal and economic transition in many countries means that any
reductions in infection-related cancers are oset by an increasing number of new cases that are more associated with
reproductive, dietary, and hormonal factors. Targeted interventions can lead to a decrease in the projected increases in
cancer burden through eective primary prevention strategies, alongside the implementation of vaccination, early
detection, and eective treatment programmes.
Funding None.
Introduction
Global action is needed to stem the increasing burden of
non-communicable diseases, especially in low-income
and middle-income countries19 which now bear 80% of
the worldwide burden of such diseases.10 Cancer, already
the leading cause of death in many high-income
countries, is set to become a major cause of morbidity
and mortality in the next few decades in every region of
the world, irrespective of level of resource.1012
The UN has forecast that the global population will
reach 7 billion by 2012 and 83 billion by 2030.13 The
eect of population ageing and growth will be greatest
in low-income and middle-income countries. These
changes translate to a predicted global burden of
203 million new cancer cases by 2030 compared with
an estimated 127 million cases in 2008, and a predicted
132 million cancer-related deaths worldwide by 2030,
up from 76 million in 2008.11 Such a demographic
transition and the resulting upsurge in cancer incidence
and mortality are contingent on population projections
that assume decreases in human fertility and population
growth as a result of continuous social and economic
790
Articles
Methods
Data sources
The International Agency for Research on Cancer has
compiled estimates of the worldwide incidence and
mortality for 27 cancers in 184 countries in 2008 by
age group and sex in the GLOBOCAN 2008 database.11
Details are provided elsewhere.11 The methods used to
estimate cancer-specific incidence and mortality rates
at the national level are dependent on the availability
and accuracy of local data sources. Generally, there is
a paucity of high quality cancer incidence and
mortality data in low-resource and medium-resource
areaseg, no population-based cancer registries exist
in 34 of the 184 countries examined in this paper,
32 of 34 countries are low-resource or mediumresource countries, and no vital statistics systems
exist in 88 countries, of which 85 are either lowresource or middle-resource countries.
791
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830
Female breast
832
Colorectum
825
778
551
409
366
Stomach
Prostate
766
622
132
572
35
Female breast
34
Colorectum
31
Prostate
34
375
Cervix uteri
215
141
Leukaemia
175
175
Corpus uteri
157
132
245
493
Stomach
09
14
Liver
163
532
Liver
06
14
Liver
106
Non-Hodgkin
lymphoma
Stomach
15
Oesophagus
127
12
11
Breast
389
Bladder
Non-Hodgkin
lymphoma
07
04
05
695
Colorectum
141
681
Lung
04
178
256
23
14 18
Liver
Bladder
Stomach
Cervix uteri
Oesophagus
368
230
Oesophagus
89
11
Cervix uteri
62
Lung
240
Colorectum
228
Breast
317
213
27
20
12
06
08
06
04
Oesophagus
Pancreas
07
09
02
09
Pancreas
190
77
Cervix uteri
02
06
09
04
Prostate
179
79
Prostate
04
02
08
03
Leukaemia
113
02
91
101
03
02
80
95
Leukaemia
Brain, nervous
system
Non-Hodgkin
lymphoma
03
Non-Hodgkin
lymphoma
Brain, nervous
system
Bladder
03
02
87
63
Ovary
03
02
75
65
Bladder
02
02
02
03
Kidney
03
01
Corpus uteri
07
04
Kidney
08
02
Pancreas
194
84
Pancreas
07
02
Kidney
201
72
05
04
Ovary
144
114
149
Leukaemia
06
03
39
89
Brain, nervous
system
Ovary
109
129
Ovary
05
02
Kidney
79
37
119
106
Melanoma of skin
06
01
Gallbladder
61
48
Gallbladder
02
01
Thyroid
140
73
Brain, nervous
system
0 4
03
Other pharynx
30
65
Other pharynx
01
02
Melanoma of skin
178
22
Thyroid
05
01
Larynx
35
46
Larynx
02
01
Larynx
75
76
Larynx
03
02
Corpus uteri
36
Corpus uteri
01
01
Gallbladder
81
64
Other pharynx
03
02
Multiple myeloma
50
22
Multiple myeloma
02
01
Nasopharynx
7 45
Other pharynx
57
79
Gallbladder
03
02
Multiple myeloma
76
27
Multiple myeloma
03
01
Melanoma of skin
Nasopharynx
13
71
Nasopharynx
01
02
Thyroid
Hodgkin lymphoma
35
33
Testis
38
Kaposi sarcoma
Hodgkin lymphoma
01 <01
Hodgkin lymphoma
14
Testis
01 <01
Kaposi sarcoma
34
Kaposi sarcoma
<01
Testis
Melanoma of skin
01 00
12
Nasopharynx
<01 01
14 22
Thyroid
<01 01
35
21
Hodgkin lymphoma
29
Kaposi sarcoma
<01
Testis
<01 <01
4 6
<01 <01
Higher HDI
Lower HDI
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Results
Within higher (high and very high) HDI areas, cancers
of the lung, female breast, and colorectum each account
for a very similar number of new cases (about 830 000)
in 2008, with prostate cancer accounting for about
766 000 cases (gure 2). Together, these four cancers
comprised almost half (49%) the total cancer burden in
these areas. In lower (low and medium) HDI areas,
lung cancer was also the most commonly diagnosed
cancer (778 000). However, several types of cancer were
more common in lower HDI areas than they were in
higher HDI areas, including stomach cancer and liver
cancer, which are more common than both female
breast cancer and colorectal cancer in such areas;
cancers of the cervix and oesophagus are also major
contributors to the cancer burden in lower HDI areas
(gure 2). In combination, these seven cancers account
for nearly two-thirds (62%) of the estimated total cancer
burden in lower HDI areas.
The lifetime cumulative risk of incidence of cancers of
the lung, female breast, colorectum, and prostate are all
more than 3% in higher HDI areasfor the remaining
cancers, only the risk of stomach cancer exceeds 1%
(gure 2). In lower HDI areas, lifetime risk of lung cancer
is highest at 23%, with the lifetime risk of ve common
cancerscancers of the stomach, liver, female breast,
colorectum, and oesophagusvarying from 1% to 2%.
A greater proportion of the mortality burden is seen in
low HDI and medium HDI areas, especially for cancers
of the liver, stomach, and oesophagus (gure 2). The
most common causes of cancer death in higher HDI
areas are those of the lung, colorectum, stomach, and
female breast, which comprise about 45% of the total
cancer mortality burden. The four most common types
of cancer death in lower HDI areas include cancers of
the lung and stomach, but also liver cancer and
oesophageal cancer, which together constitute 49% of
the cancer mortality burden in these areas. The lifetime
risk of lung cancer death ranks highest in both higher
HDI and lower HDI areas. The second highest lifetime
risk of cancer death was for colorectal cancer in higher
HDI areas, with stomach and liver cancer equal second
in lower HDI areas; lifetime risk of stomach cancer
death ranked third in both higher HDI and lower HDI
areas (gure 2).
Very high HDI areas seem to bear a larger proportion
of the cancer burden, with almost 40% of the global
incidence estimated to occur in these countries, despite
having only 15% of the worlds population (table 1).
The same ve cancers (cancers of the colorectum, lung,
female breast, prostate, and stomach) are the most
www.thelancet.com/oncology Vol 13 August 2012
Population
in 2030
(millions
[% of world
population])
Incidence
in 2008
(millions [% of
total global
burden])
Incidence
in 2030*:
demographic
(millions
[absolute %
increase from
2008])
Incidence
in 2030:
demographic
plus trend
(millions
[absolute %
change from
2008])
Men
Low HDI
196 (57%)
332 (79%)
011 (16%)
021 (94%)
023 (111%)
2266 (664%)
2811 (672%)
30 (447%)
54 (82%)
54 (82%)
High HDI
452 (132%)
504 (121%)
10 (144%)
16 (68%)
18 (90%)
498 (146%)
532 (127%)
26 (393%)
38 (46%)
45 (75%)
110 (66%)
120 (81%)
Medium HDI
Worldwide
3412
4179
66
Women
Low HDI
Medium HDI
198 (59%)
332 (80%)
014 (23%)
027 (92%)
027 (92%)
2176 (648%)
2722 (660%)
28 (456%)
48 (73%)
49 (79%)
High HDI
470 (140%)
527 (128%)
09 (156%)
14 (53%)
16 (70%)
512 (153%)
542 (132%)
22 (366%)
29 (31%)
34 (54%)
60
94 (55%)
102 (69%)
Worldwide
3356
4123
Total
Low HDI
Medium HDI
High HDI
394 (58%)
664 (80%)
025 (20%)
4442 (656%)
5533 (666%)
57 (451%)
048 (93%)
049 (100%)
101 (78%)
103 (81%)
34 (80%)
922 (136%)
1031 (124%)
19 (149%)
30 (60%)
1010 (149%)
1074 (129%)
48 (380%)
67 (39%)
79 (65%)
Worldwide
6768
8302
203 (61%)
222 (75%)
127
*Based on demographic changes (UN)the predicted cases worldwide are derived by aggregation of the predicted
cases obtained after the rst application of age-specic rates to the demographic forecasts within each Human
Development Index (HDI) level (these numbers will not correspond exactly with those predicted from the single global
gures, because the underlying rates used to derive the predictions from the two sources dier in their age structure
and size). Based on demographic changes (UN) plus crude assumptions on trends in rates of six cancers on the basis of
changing annual age-adjusted incidence in 101 cancer registries 19882002 (gure 5; table 2): annual decreases in
stomach (25%, [worldwide in both sexes]), cervical cancer (2% [worldwide]) and lung cancer (1% [high HDI and very
high HDI areas in men only]); increases in colorectal (1% [worldwide both sexes]), lung (1% [high HDI and very high
HDI areas in women only]), female breast (2% [worldwide]), and prostate cancer (3% [worldwide]). See appendix for a
list of countries by HDI region.
Table 1: Estimated numbers of new cases of cancers (all sites excluding non-melanomas) in 2008 and
predicted new cases by 2030
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Men
Colorectum
Women
347
Lung
288
385
224
600
Breast
Prostate 597
149
Stomach
80
232
Lung
168
Colorectum
96
168
Prostate
82 55
Stomach
53
94
238
535
Stomach
403
Liver
208
158
391
Breast
527
Colorectum
218
182
Cervix uteri
Breast
24
Liver
15 8
Kaposi sarcoma
13 6
Non-Hodgkin
Lymphoma
7 5
600
2
0
2
New cases in 2008 (thousands)
600
Figure 3: Five most frequently diagnosed cancers in terms of new cases estimated in 2008, by Human Development Index level
Maps shows only the countries included in the analysis.
794
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Discussion
Cancers of the breast, lung, colorectum, and prostate
account for about 50% of the cancer burden in high HDI
and very high HDI regions, whereas in medium HDI
www.thelancet.com/oncology Vol 13 August 2012
Prostate
Lung
Liver
Stomach
Kaposi sarcoma
Oesophagus
Colorectum
Oral cavity
Bladder
Lung
Prostate
Liver
Stomach
Kaposi sarcoma
Oesophagus
Colorectum
Bladder
Breast
Cervix uteri
Thyroid
Liver
Breast
Cervix uteri
Lung
Stomach
Liver
Thyroid
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma
Gallbladder
Figure 4: Incidence and mortality from the most common forms of cancer, by sex
(A) Incidence in men. (B) Mortality in men. (C) Incidence in women. (D) Mortality in women.
Maps show only the countries included in the analysis.
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Stomach (men)
EAPC incidence 19882002
10 6 2 2
6 10
Cervix
EAPC incidence 19882002
108642 0 2 4 6 8 10
Lung (men)
EAPC incidence 19882002
10 6 2 2
6 10
Lung (women)
EAPC incidence 19882002
10 6 2 2
6 10
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
High
High
High
High
Very high
Very high
Very high
Very high
Very high
Liver (men)
EAPC incidence 19882002
10 6 2 2
6 10
796
Stomach (women)
EAPC incidence 19882002
10 6 2 2
6 10
Liver (women)
EAPC incidence 19882002
10 6 2 2
6 10
Colorectum (men)
EAPC incidence 19882002
10 6 2 2
6 10
Colorectum (women)
EAPC incidence 19882002
10 6 2 2
6 10
Female breast
EAPC incidence 19882002
10 6 2 2
6 10
Prostate
EAPC incidence 19882002
10 6 2 2
6 10
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
High
High
High
High
High
Very high
Very high
Very high
Very high
Very high
Very high
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Men
Women
Medium
HDI
Medium
HDI
High HDI
Very high
HDI
27%
26%
28%
19%
25%
25%
18%
12%
26%
Lung
15%
13%
16%
05%
05%
18%
1% annual decrease in high HDI and very high HDI areas (men)
1% annual increase in high HDI and very high HDI areas (women)
Liver
01%
02%
25%
04%
04%
21%
Colorectum
15%
28%
06%
15%
18%
03%
21%
26%
16%
32%
70%
44%
Stomach
Cervix uteri
Breast
Prostate
Data are estimated annual percentage change. HDI=Human Development Index. *Cancer-specic scenarios for the annual percentage change in incidence rates up to 2030
are derived from unweighted averages of the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) by sex and HDI level when clear directional trends emerged; for cancers of the lung
(low-to-medium HDI) and liver (all HDI levels), we assumed no change in the incidence rates by 2030, in view of the heterogeneity in the direction and magnitude of the
trends, and the need for country-specic information on the tobacco epidemic (for lung cancer); for prostate cancer, we assumed a conservative 3% increase in the incidence
rates per annum (at least relative to the increases in very high HDI settings) for all HDI levelsfuture trends in prostate cancer incidence will be strongly associated with the
(unknown) future trends in testing for prostate-specic antigen.
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Contributors
FB contributed to the data collection, study design, analysis, and writing
of the paper. JF contributed to data collection, analysis, and writing of
the paper. AJ and NG contributed to the writing of the paper. DF
contributed to drafting and nalising the paper. All authors read and
approved the nal paper.
Conicts of interest
We declare that we have no conicts of interest.
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