Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
7 Jul 2015
Global Markets
The year to date performance for global equity market was rather flattish,
as the Greek debt woes and Fed rate normalization further kept investors
staying risk-averse, especially during the past quarter. We expect the fear
of financial market turmoil caused by Greek politics and US rate move will
gradually fade by the end of 3Q, and suggest investors to re-position the
asset allocation in preparation for the risk appetite to come back in 4Q.
Bond Markets
On fixed income market, worries over deflation risks in the Eurozone have
diminished after the ECB launched its bond-buying program in March.
Current concerns on Grexit have pushed the US benchmark yield lower,
but the event is expected to fade sooner than later, in our view. Investors
are suggested to diversify the portfolio and reduce overconcentration on
dollar bonds. We like offshore RMB bonds for yields and we anticipate a
relatively stable RMB exchange rate.
Forex Markets
On FX, we are bullish on USDJPY in 2H15. There could be a new wave of
market expectation on BOJ to do more quantitative easing for trade and
inflation to rise later on this year. Coupled with the US rate hike ahead and
further widening of the US-Japan interest rate differential, we expect the
USDJPY to enter into a new trading range and our year-end target is 128.
Executive Summary
7 Jul 2015
CONTENTS
Equities
US
Europe
10
12
Japan
15
17
Currencies
AUD
19
GBP
20
JPY
21
EUR
22
Investment Analysis
Asset Class
US equities
3Q 2015
=/+
European equities
Japanese equities
=/+
DM Corporate Bonds
=/-
EM Sovereign bonds
Asian bonds
=/+
Commodity currencies
Gold
7 Jul 2015
The year to date performance for global equity market was rather flattish as the global stocks
valuation have already stretched since the end of last year, while the Greek debt woes and Fed
rate normalization further kept investors staying risk-averse, especially during the past quarter. We
expect the fear of financial market turmoil caused by Greek politics and US rate move will
gradually fade by the end of 3Q, and suggest investors to re-position the asset allocation in
preparation for the risk appetite to come back in 4Q. We do not assume the Greece debt
negotiation will turn into a replay of the Euro debt crisis in 2012 and we reckon the chance is that
ECB would continue to support Greece as a member of Eurozone. Even if Greece will eventually
leave the Eurozone, we expect see an orderly exit and will not result in a market crisis. In our view,
the more near-term threat to risk assets would come from the imminent Fed rate hikes, especially
on the emerging market stocks and emerging market FX where the volatility is higher. After such a
long period of easy money and close to zero interest rate in the financial market, it is difficult to find
anecdotal evidence to predict what will happen when Fed begins the rate normalization. There is
Page 3, Total 24 Pages
7 Jul 2015
likely another risk-off event to come during the time of uncertainty in 2H15, but we think investors
will eventually want to add on risks as the global economy recovers further. The developed market
equities are likely to be more resilient when the Fed tightens the rate as there is more growth
certainty in both their economy and the corporate earnings relative to emerging market, in our
view.
China equities market fell off sharply in June on leveraging control and governments intention to
prevent market bubbles and bank bad debts. The deleveraging has triggered continuous sell off in
the past few weeks and most over-leveraged umbrella trusts have disappeared by now. It seems
the Chinese government will come back to support the market to prevent it from crashing further.
We hope the A share market could resume its order and stabilize very soon. The bottom-line is
investors should know any stock market couldnt deviate from its economic fundamentals for long.
Looking at the economic front, our base case scenario is that Chinas growth has already reached
a short-term cyclical growth bottom. Both the FAI and other leading indicators such as PMI
remained weak year to date. With a few rate cuts and RRR cuts, as well as local governments
bank debt swap to municipal bonds program, we feel the monetary condition in Mainland is
becoming rather accommodative. Going forward we are looking for signs of growth stabilization,
i.e. further pick up of the property transaction volumes, followed by an increased land sales and
floor starts, plus more infrastructure investment on fiscal policy. If China can achieve a mild growth
rebound in 2H15, we will see stock market regain the strength, especially the cyclical H shares.
We remain our preference on H shares over A shares in 3Q mainly due to valuation and our
confidence in market liquidity in Hong Kong.
On fixed income, the US government bonds have had their biggest quarterly selloff since
December 2013, hurt by an improving US economic outlook and the Feds pending shift into
higher interest rates. The benchmark 10-year rate has climbed from 1.93% at the end of March to
2.35% end of June, marking the first quarterly loss since the final quarter of 2013. Economic
indicators in employment and consumer spending over the past few months have suggested that
the US economy is strengthening after a shallow contraction during the first three months of the
year. Worries over deflation risks in the eurozone, which were prevalent earlier this year, have
diminished after the European Central Bank launched its bond-buying program in March. Current
concerns on Grexit have temporarily pushed the US benchmark yield lower, but the event is
expected to fade sooner than later, in our view. Investors are suggested to diversify the portfolio
and reduce overconcentration on dollar bonds. We like offshore RMB bonds for yields and for
Chinese economic rebound in 2H and we anticipate a relatively stable RMB exchange rate.
On FX, we are bullish on USDJPY in 2H15. Japan's trade deficit widened in recent months, and
this could be a warning signal that current yen exchange is not weak enough to support the foreign
trade. Moreover, Japanese consumer price index remained relatively low this year, leaving some
doubts on whether the pickup of inflation has been as fast as BOJ has expected. There has been
an increased market expectation on BOJ to do more quantitative easing for trade and inflation to
rise. Coupled with the US rate hike ahead and further widening of the US-Japan interest rate
differential, we expect the USDJPY to enter into a new trading range and our year-end target is
128.
7 Jul 2015
UNITED STATES
12-Month Performance
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
-
U.S. stocks have managed to move higher in the second quarter this
year- boosted by improving economic data from job market and retail sales,
and robust M&A news from corporates. Despite robust markets, all major
indices have been trading in narrow-range. Historically, narrow ranges had
chances of breaking to the upside, but also had risk of correction.
US stocks have managed to move higher so far this year, but have
been trading in narrow-range. Historically, narrow ranges have typically
broken to the upside, but volatility is expected.
US economic data has improved since the weak first quarter, allowing
the Fed to normalize interest rate at a steady pace, without yet having
to react to inflationary pressures.
18.9 trillion
2,131/1,862
-0.36%
0.48 %
2,104/2,096
2.1%
18.3x
17.4x
2.69x
7 Jul 2015
Sector Outlooks
Consumer discretionary (Neutral) We are a bit cautious on the consumer
discretionary sector. The sector has been doing well since 4Q14, and we do
see valuations are particularly attractive now. A large part of expected
growth in 2H15 has already priced in the share prices. As the Fed will raise
rates later this year, consumer discretionary shares historically are poor
performers during tightening cycles.
Healthcare / Biotech (Overweight) Having gone through a volatile quarter,
we upgraded our view to overweigh on the sector. The performance of
healthcare hit all-time relative highs and outpaced the S&P 500 year-todate. The sectors market cap weight in the S&P 500 has grown above
15%, as health reform which expand revenue and spending, and also due
to the growth of Biotech. The U.S. Supreme Court's announced ruling
(King vs Burwell) in regards to the legality of health-insurance subsidies
favoring Obamacare is expected to give a boost to healthcare sector, with
hospitals, and insurers are the most obvious benefactors of the law. We
continue to like biotech as biotech companies are more levered to new
product launches. Rising equity markets have helped to increase investor
risk appetite, which is a key factor for the performance of the sector,
especially the smaller cap names. Also M&A activities will continue serve as
catalysts.
Technology (Overweight) The long term growth drivers for the technology
sector, which include structural growth, M&A and reasonable valuations,
remain intact. Technology companies remain attractive with their strong cash
position and less sensitive to movement of oil prices and interest rates. We
preferred equities of innovators, i.e, internet of everything, big data, and
internet security, as we expect them to benefit most from IT spending, while
some may become M&A targets. We also prefer the leading tech giants,
like Apple (APPL US) and Facebook (FB US), as their existing businesses
are still doing well and they continue to adapt to new challenges and/or
continue to return capital to shareholders. In a nutshell, big data, cloud
computing, internet of things, mobile internet and social media will be the
areas for future growth.
Financials (Overweight) The US banking sector should benefit from the
recent results that all US bank pass the stress in 1Q 2015. Most US banks
are now allowed to start paying out more for dividends and/or buybacks.
Financial sector has historically outperformed prior to a first Fed rate hike,
as NIM is expected to expand from growing loan growth. Most U.S. banks
have substantial amount of short-term asset which will likely yield higher
coupons after the rate hikes. We therefore rasied our rating on Financials
to Overweight.
Utilities (Underweight) In contrast to the discretionary sector, these two
sectors are usually considered defensive as they sell products that are
purchased regardless of the market conditions. Utilities are particularly
sensitive, as they correlate positively to energy prices. The average utility
remains expensive at 1.7x price to book and 1.6x price to sales. We are
starting to become cautious considering the Fed may be close to a rate hike
cycle.
Risk Considerations: 1) uneven economic growth in Europe and the BRIC
nations, 2) change in federal budget levels in the U.S., 3) oil price volatility
and 4) geopolitical threats in the Mideast. 5) the U.S. interest rate hikes
earlier than market expected.
7 Jul 2015
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
-
7.7 trillion
1,104/906
-6.24%
-1.35%
1006/1,000
2.8%
13.3x
12.6x
1.44x
7 Jul 2015
Market Outlook
India (Overweight) India stock market suffered in the 2nd quarter due to
expectation of poor monsoon, behind progress of economic reforms and
earning downward revision. However, we believe India could outperform
others during the 3rd quarter. Up to June, monsoon has been on progress
so far, which reduced the worries of rising food price. Market expects India
could further cut the policy rate due to inflation is still manageable. Starting
from July, the Monsoon Session of parliament would be held. A number of
important economic reforms could be passed, such as Goods and Services
Tax (GST), land acquisition bill and labor reforms. We believe passage of
those reforms could be the coming catalyst, we therefore maintain
overweight Indian equity market.
Korea (Overweight) Korea is facing a cyclical growth challenge. Weak
demand from the global economy has weighed on the production and
shipment of Korea's industrial exports. However, we believe U.S. economy
improving in this quarter may help Korea's export recovery .The outbreak of
MERS is likely to have negative impact on consumer sentiment, but we do
not foresee it to have a long lasting impact to the economy. The
government also announced a supplementary budget (W15 trillion) to offset
the negative impact from the recent MERS breakout. With hefty current
account surplus and large foreign exchange reserve, Korea could be one of
the winners during U.S. monetary tightening. We maintain overweight
Korean equity market.
Taiwan (Overweight) Of all emerging markets, Taiwan equity market
performance is the most positively correlated to movements in US ISM new
orders. With US economy improving and the US ISM new orders picking
up, we believe the sluggish export in Taiwan could benefit. On the other
hand, the domestic demand is being boosted by strong consumer
sentiment and lowest level of unemployment since 2001. The valuation of
Taiwanese equity is also very attractive. Currently, Taiwanese equity
market is trading at about 13.1x forward P/E and it is the only market still
trading lower than its 5 years average. We expect the improving economy
and attractive valuation could support Taiwan stock market.
Indonesia (Neutral) Indonesia Rupiah depreciated to the lowest level since
1998. The inflation remains high in Indonesia. Despite sluggish domestic
demand, inflation remains hovering above 7% in recent months. The supply
related drivers would dominate the inflation outlook in the near term. EI
Nino could pose some upside risk to volatile food prices. With inflation
uncertainty, the Bank of Indonesia is unable to cut the policy rate even GDP
and credit growth remain very sluggish. We remain cautious about the
overall economy.
Russia (Neutral) EU extended the economic sanctions against Russia until
the end of January 2016. Under the last 15 months of EU sanctions,
recessionary trends intensified in Russia with economic contraction
reaching 4.2% year on year in April. The pace of real GDP contraction
deepened further in 2nd quarter. Stronger Ruble wiped off the competitive
advantage of manufacturing sectors and retail sales also recorded a sharp
drop. We believe the Russian economy still has a long way to go to recover
from the current recession.
Page 8, Total 24 Pages
7 Jul 2015
Brazil (Underweight) The cumulative 12 month nominal deficit reached alltime high of 7.9% of GDP in May, which fell short from Brazil government
primary fiscal surplus at 1%. On the other hand, CPI accelerated to 8.8% in
June, which putting pressure to Brazil Central Bank to further hike interest
rate on top of 200 basis points raised this year. With tightening fiscal and
monetary policies, we maintain negative outlook on Brazilian equity market.
Risk Considerations: 1) Political, liquidity, and currency risks 2) further Oil
/ commodity prices downside 3) Slowdown in China or U.S 4) unexpected
tightening on Fed fund rate
7 Jul 2015
EUROPE
12-Month Performance
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
-
7.9trillion
414/310
-6.3%
10.55%
394/369
3.4%
23.7x
16.1x
1.83x
7 Jul 2015
7 Jul 2015
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
-
12-Month Performance
7 Jul 2015
8.84Trillion
28,443 /
52-week Hi / Lo
22,586
3-Mth Total Return
+7.3%
Y-T-D Total Return
+13.7%
27,437 /
50 / 250 Mov.Avg.
24,836
2015 Est Yield
3.2%
2014 Historic P/E
11.0x
2015 Estimated P/E
12.6x
2015 Estimated P/B
1.36x
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
As of 06/30/2015
7 Jul 2015
IPP (maintain Overweight) We expect coal price to keep low in 2H15 due
to oversupply. Being a high financial leverage sector, we expect further
interest rate cut to ease their financial pressure and help to drive earnings.
Moreover, their parentco will speed up to inject quality assets into listcos
which will drive listcos earnings growth. Given sector average ~9x 2015 PE
and 4.4% yield, valuation is attractive.
7 Jul 2015
Japan
12-Month Performance
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
- Monetary and Fiscal policy in unison to drive inflation and economic
growth.
- Nikkei 225 kept supported above 20,000 despite mixed readings in
economic data and business sentiment.
- Data dependent BOJ on the sidelines, but open to further quantitative
easing options.
7 Jul 2015
7 Jul 2015
BONDS
US Treasury 10 Year Yield
Greece situation has turned into the worst as the Greek prime minister has
put the latest reform proposal from Greece creditors to a referendum on 5
July 2015. If the no vote in the referendum is the answer from Greece
public, the chance for Greece to left Eurozone would be substantially
higher. Also an IMF payment was scheduled to mature on 30 Jun 2015 but
has been missed. Greece bond may then enter into the technical default
zone. Greece debt trouble remains as one of the most influential incidents
in the global bond market. Driven by the flight for safety sentiment, the
Germany 10-yr treasury yield has plunged to 0.75% from 0.9% during the
last week of June. Risk adverse market behavior could further widen
corporates credit spread and put pressure on the global corporate bond
prices. Investors should be more cautious on the European debt.
Enormous fund outflows from fixed income sector in June 2015
The lately volatile US Treasury has made investors reluctant to put money
into the Bond fund market. There is a sufficient fund outflows recorded in
June. Both developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) bond funds
recorded cumulative net outflows by the end of 1H2015, of which the retail
investors were the major sellers while Institutional investors were the
bargain hunters in the market. As for DM bond funds, high grade and high
yield bond funds were taking the majority of the toll, with high yield bond
funds trying to reverse its outflow in the last week of 2Q 2015.
CNY is being planned to join the Special Drawing Rights family
An IMF fund team has visited China to have technical discussion on CNY
inclusion in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket. SDR review is
performed every 5 years and the market is expecting 50% chance of CNY
joining the SDR family in the upcoming revision in Oct 2015. Chinese
Government regards the inclusion of CNY into the SDR basket as one of
the major milestone for CNY Internationalization. Market analysts believed
that CNY has already satisfied some criteria to become SDR, but further
steps are needed to match with the freely usable criteria. Therefore, further
loosening measures in Chinas capital control are expected this year. These
measures can enhance the global appetite in CNY currency and related
CNY investment products. CNY bond sector could be expected to be
benefit from it.
China real estate markets recovered in 2Q 2015
rd
Chinese Central Bank has announced its 3 25 bps cut in interest rate this
year, together with a cut in Chinas Required Deposit Reserve Ratio of a
total 150bps reduction. Market has expected the Chinese Government to
implement monetary easing policy and further stimulate measures that
could be announced in the second half of the year. Therefore, some signs
of turnaround in the Chinese real estate markets have been seen. In May
Page 17, Total 24 Pages
7 Jul 2015
7 Jul 2015
AUD/USD
12-Month Performance
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
Chinas economic recovery in Q3 will underpin Australian dollar
Global commodity prices are close to bottoming out
AU-US yield spread widens and supports the currency pair
AUD/USD third quarter target at 0.7800
Chinas economic recovery in Q3 will underpin Australian dollar
AUD/USD
AUD/USD Data
RBA Cash Rate
52-week Hi / Lo
3-Mth Change
12-Mth Change
50 / 250 Day
Moving Average
Chinas central bank has cut lending rates for the fourth time since
November last year and lowered the banks reserve requirement ratio for
several times in the view of economic slowdown. We believe the central
bank will continue to implement easing monetary policies to stimulate the
domestic economy. We expect a further slowdown in Chinas second
quarter GDP, as the industrial output and manufacturing production growth
turned slow. However We believe China, the biggest trade partner of
2.00%
Australia, will most probably pick up in the third quarter because of the
0.9460 / 0.7548 positive impact of the central banks monetary policies, posting positive
impact on Australia export sector and hence its economy, and underpinning
+0.85%
the exchange rate of Australian dollar.
-18.28%
0.7807 / 0.8323 Global commodity prices are close to bottoming out
We believe the Greece debt crisis will have little impact on commodity
markets and we could see the demand of commodity was climbing up in the
second quarter. The price of iron ore, which accounts for more than 20
percent of Australias export income, rebounded by nearly 30 percent in the
second quarter as demand rose and benefitted the mining investment in the
country. We are forecasting that the iron ore price are bottomed out in the
second quarter and will be stable in the second half year, which help to
stabilize the trend of the Australian dollar. Besides, the domestic economy
will be benefited from the low energy cost and low currency exchange rate
may attract more foreign fund flow to Australia for investment purpose.
Hence, we expect the local currency will climb up at the end of this year.
AU-US yield spread widens and supports the currency pair
The RBA has cut interest rates for two times in February and May to 2.00
percent, aiming to stimulate non-mining growth amid labor market slack,
sluggish consumer confidence and business investment. In its second time
rate cut, we could see the investors were fully priced in and the Australian
dollar rebounded against the U.S. dollar after the statement in May. As the
labor market and property market in Australia improved, we believe it is less
likely to see further rate cut from RBA within this year but the central bank
is still reluctant to withdraw the easing policy in the short period of time. On
the other hand, the U.S. economic figures, especially the labor market
figures, were beating market estimates in the second quarter, fueling the
expectation on rate hike from the Fed Reserve by the end of this year. We
can see the Fed rate hike expectation has been, to some extent, reflected
in the currency market. Besides, the yield spread between 2 year AU
government bond and US T-bond shows a sign of bounce in the second
quarter after reaching nearly 8-year low in the first quarter. Looking forward
to the third quarter, we believe AU-US yield spread will be stabilizing and
this carry trade pairing will gain back its attractiveness.
7 Jul 2015
GBP/USD
12-Month Performance
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
In-out EU referendum poses limited impact on currency this year
Economic growth is picking up pace this year
Stance of monetary policy from Bank of England
GBP/USD third quarter target at 1.6000
In-out EU referendum poses limited impact on currency this year
GBP/USD
GBP/USD Data
Prime Minister David Cameron and his Conservative Party won the UK
general election on 7 May without forming coalition government, settling the
major political issue in the UK this year. However, the market concern soon
switched to an in-out EU referendum by the end of 2017 David Cameron
has pledged to hold. As UK parliament has already ruled out holding the
referendum on the same day as the Scottish and London elections in May
2016, we believe 2017 would be the more likely date for the referendum. It
0.50%
is undeniable that there will be a huge political risk on the sterling pound
1.7161 / 1.4598 exchange rate during the year 2016-2017, but we think the impact would be
quite limited in this year and we are fundamentally bullish on the sterling.
+6.21%
7 Jul 2015
USD/JPY
12-Month Performance
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
Monetary policy divergence between U.S. and Japan
Recent economic figures suggested yen depreciation was not enough
The Bank of Japans stance on the weak yen currency
USD/JPY third quarter target at 125.00
Monetary policy divergence between U.S. and Japan
USD/JPY
USD/JPY Data
In the 17 June FOMC meeting, the Fed remained interest rate unchanged
and said the U.S. economy was strong enough to handle rate hike by the
end of this year, but concerns remained over the recovery of the labor
market and confidence that inflation will move to its 2 percent objective. We
believe after the impact of bad weather in the first quarter, the labor market
will show a sign of healing for rest of the year and we can see inflation is
starting to pick up. Though the Fed downgraded economic outlook in the
0.10%
June meeting, signaling a slowdown in rate hike pace, but we believe the
Fed will probably start rate hike by the end of this year. The yen exchange
125.63 / 101.30 rate is sensitive to U.S. interest rate to some extent and the US-JP
sovereign bond yield spread is still at a very low level over the past 10
+2.08%
years. Therefore, if the yield spread widens due to the Fed rate hike by the
+20.51%
end of this year, a further yen depreciation will be seen.
BOJ Unsecured
Overnight Call
Rate
52-week Hi / Lo
3-Mth Return
12-Mth Return
50 / 250 Day
121.88 / 115.26
Moving Average
Recent economic figures suggested yen depreciation was not enough
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
Japan trade deficit widened to 216 billion yen in May this year, following a
As of 6/30/2015
deficit of 55.8 billion yen in April. The trade balance was in surplus in
7 Jul 2015
EUR/USD
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
Eurozones economy continues to improve
The US-German government bonds yield spread may remain stable
The impact of potential Grexit should be manageable
EUR/USD third quarter target at 1.1500
Eurozones economy continues to improve
EUR/USD
EUR/USD Data
ECB Main
Refinancing Rate
52-week Hi / Lo
3-Mth Return
12-Mth Return
50 / 250 Day
Moving Average
Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.4% qoq in 1Q, up from 0.3% in the previous
quarter. The growth in the region outpaced that in the US. Inflation has
picked up in 2Q15, reversing the deflation pattern existed in 1Q15. CPI in
June for the region rose 0.2% annually. Business sentiment recovered as
well, in particular the services sector. Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI
climbed to 52.5 in June, well above the neutral level, indicating a decent
0.05%
expansion in the manufacturing sector. Markit services PMI came even
better that reached a 4 year high to 54.4 in June. The accommodative
1.3689 / 1.0496
monetary policies adopted by ECB, a relative low EUR exchange rate and
+3.98%
the weakness in oil prices should further stimulate business investment and
-18.29%
expansion of operation, which should be a key driver of the regional
economy in the second half of the year.
1.1147 / 1.1957
7 Jul 2015
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