Aczel Solution 005

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions
CHAPTER 5
SAMPLING AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS

5.1.
Parameters are numerical measures of populations. Sample statistics are numerical measures of
samples. An estimator is a sample statistic used for estimating a population parameter.
5-2.
x = 97.9225
s = 51.8303
s2 = 2,686.38
5-3.
(estimate of )
(estimate of )
(estimate of 2the population variance)
= x/n = 5/12 = 0.41667

p
(5 out of 12 accounts are over $100.)

5-4.
x = 2121.667
s = 1737.714
Basic Statistics from Raw Data
Measures of Central tendency
Mean 2121.6667
Median
Measures of Dispersion
If the data is of a
Sample
Population
Variance 3019651.52
St. Dev. 1737.71445
5.5.
average price = 4.367
standard deviation = 0.3486
Basic Statistics from Raw Data

Measures of Central tendency
Mean 4.3676471
Median
Measures of Dispersion
If the data is of a
Sample
Population
Variance 0.12154412
St. Dev. 0.34863178
5-1
5.6.
= x/n = 11/18 = 0.6111, where x = the number of users of the product.

p
5.7.
We need 25 elements from a population of 950 elements. Use the rows of Table 5-1, the rightmost
3 digits of each group starting in row 1 (left to right). So we skip any such 3-digit number that is
either > 950 or that has been generated earlier in this list, giving us a list of 25 different numbers in
the desired range. The chosen numbers are:
480, 11, 536, 647, 646, 179, 194, 368, 573, 595, 393, 198, 402, 130, 360, 527, 265, 809, 830,
167, 93, 243, 680, 856, 376.
5.8.
We will use again Table 5-1, using columns this time. We will use right-hand columns, first 4 digits
from the right (going down the column):
4,194 3,402 4,830 3,537 1,305.
5.9
We will use Table 5-1, sets of 2 columns using all 5 digits from column 1 and the first 3 digits from
column 2, continuing by reading down in these columns. Then we will continue to the set: column 3
and first 3 digits column 4. We skip any numbers that are > 40,000,000. The resulting voter
numbers are:
10,480,150
22,368,465
24,130,483
37,570,399
1,536,020.
5.10.There are 7 x 24 x 60 minutes in one week: (7)(24)(60) = 10,080 minutes. We will use Table 5-1
Start in the first row and go across the row, then to the next row (left to right using all 5 digits
in each set), discarding any of the resulting 5-digit numbers that are > 10,080. The resulting
minute numbers are:
1,536 2,011 6,243 7,856 6,121 6,907
5-11.
A sampling distribution is the probability distribution of a sample statistic. The sampling

distribution is useful in determining the accuracy of estimation results.
5.12.Only if the population is itself normal.

5-13.
E X = 125
SE X / n 20/ 5 = 8.944
5.14.The fact that, in the limit, the population distribution does not matter. Thus the theorem is very
general.
5.15.When the population distribution is unknown.
5.16.The Central Limit Theorem does not apply.
5-2
5.17. P is binomial. Since np = 1.2, the Central Limit Theorem does not apply and we cannot use the
normal distribution.
5.18. = 1,247
2 = 10,000
n = 100
1,230 1,247
100 / 10
P( X < 1,230) = P Z
= P(Z < 1.7) = .5 .4554 = 0.0446
Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean

Population Distribution
Mean
Stdev
1247
100
Sample Size
n
100
5.19.P
Sampling Distribution of X-bar
Mean
1247
P(X<x)
0.0446
x
1230
X 8
Stdev
10
= 1 P X 8 = 1 P(8 < X < 8)
= 1 P
55 / 150
= 1 P(1.78 < Z < 1.78)
55 / 150
= 1 2(.4625) = 0.075
5.20.P(X > 3.6) = P Z
3.6 3.4
= P(Z > 1.333) = 0.0912

1.5 / 100
Mean
Stdev
3.4
1.5
Sample Size
n
100
x
3.6
Mean
3.4
Stdev
0.15
P(X>x)
0.0912
5-3
12 13.1
15 13.1
5.21.P(12 < X < 15) = P

1.2 / 36
1.2 / 36
= P(5.5 < Z < 9.5) = 2 (.5) = 1.000 (approximately)

(Use template: Sampling Distribution.xls, sheet: x-bar)
Mean
13.1
Is the population
normal?
Stdev
1.2
Sample Size
n
36
x1
12

Mean
Stdev
13.1
0.2
P(x1<X<x2)
1.0000
x2
15
5.22.s = 4,500 n = 225
800
4,500 / 225
P X 800 = P Z
800
= P
4,500 / 15
p = 0.18
n = 200
P( P .20 ) = P
.20 .18
= P Z
(.18)(.82) / 200
.02
= P(Z .736)
.02717
= .5 .2692 = 0.2308
5.24.The claim is that p = 0.58. We have n = 250 and x / n = 123/250 = 0.492.
P( P .492) = P Z
.492 .58
= P(Z < -2.819) = 0.0024
(.58)(.42) / 250
5-4
4,500 / 15
= P(2.667 < Z < 2.667) = 2(.4961) = 0.9923

5-23.
800
5-25.
P(X > $3M) = 0.00

known
Mean
2.6
Stdev
0.4
Sample Size
n
75

Mean
Stdev
2.6
0.04619
P(>x)
0.0000
x
3
5-26.
Is the population normal?
n = 16 = 1.5
=2
0 1.5
2 / 16
P( X > 0) = P Z
= P(Z > -3) = .5 + .4987 = 0.9987

Mean
Stdev
1.5
2
Sample Size
n
16
x
0
Mean
1.5
Stdev
0.5
P(X>x)
0.9987
5-5
5.27.
p = 1/7
.10 .143
< .10) = P Z
P( P
(1 / 7)(6 / 7) / 180
= P(Z < 1.648) = 0.5 0.4503 =
0.0497, a low probability. The sample size, along with np and n(1 p), are large enough here that
the sample distribution (over all the different samples of 180 people in the population) of the
proportion of people who get hospitalized during the year is going to be pretty close to normal.
Therefore, any one such sample proportion will be close to the predicted mean 1/7 with reasonable
probability, and 1/10 is far enough away from that mean given our estimated sample standard
deviation that the probability of falling even farther away than that from the mean is small.
5-28.
= 700
= 100
n = 60
680 700
P(680 X 720) = P
100 / 60
720 700
100 / 60
= 2TA(1.549) = 0.8786
5-29.
p = = 0.35
P
p 0.05
P
(0.35)(0.65) / 500
= 0.0213
< 0.30) + P( P
> 0.40)
= P( P
5-6
0.30 0.35
0.40 0.35
= P Z
+ P Z
0.0213
0.0213
= 1 2TA(2.344) = 0.0190
5.30.
Estimator B is better. It has a small bias, but its variance is small. This estimator is more likely to
produce an estimate that is close to the parameter of interest.
5.31.
I would use this estimator because consistency means as n the probability of getting close
to the parameter increases. With a generous budget I can get a large sample size, which will make
this probability high.
5.32.
s 2 = 1,287
5.33.
Advantage: uses all information in the data.

Disadvantage: may be too sensitive to the influence of outliers.
5.34.
Depends also on efficiency and other factors. With respect to the bias:
A has bias = 1/n
B has bias = 0.01
A is better than B when 1/n < 0.01, that is, when n > 1/0.01 = 100
5.35.
Consistency is important because it means that as you get more data, your probability of getting
closer to your target increases.
5.36.
n1 = 30, n 2 = 48, n3 = 32. The three sample means are known. The df for deviations from the
three sample means are:
df = n1 + n 2 + n3 3 = 30 + 48 + 32 3 = 107
n 1
s2 =
100
1,287 = 1,300
99
s 2 =
5-7
5.37.
a) the mean is the best number to use.

mean =
Sample
34
51
40
38
47
50
52
44
37
43.667
Deviation Deviation
from meansquared
-9.667 93.45089
7.333 53.77289
-3.667 13.44689
-5.667 32.11489
3.333 11.10889
6.333 40.10689
8.333 69.43889
0.333 0.110889
-6.667 44.44889
SSD =
358
degrees of freedom = 8
MSD = SSD / df = 358 / 8 = 44.75
b) choose the means of the respective block of numbers: 40.75, 49.667, 40.5 minimized SSD =
195.917, df = 6, MSD = 32.65283
mean =
Sample
34
51
40
38
47
50
52
44
37
40.75
49.667
Deviation Deviation
from meansquared
-6.75 45.5625
10.25 105.0625
-0.75
0.5625
-2.75
7.5625
-2.667 7.112889
0.333 0.110889
2.333 5.442889
3.5
12.25
-3.5
12.25
SSD =
40.5
195.9167
c) Each of the numbers themselves. SSD = 0. MSD indicates that the variance is zero, which is
true since we are using each of the individual numbers to reduce SSD to zero.
5-8
d) SSD = 719, df = 9, MSD = 79.889

mean =
Sample
34
51
40
38
47
50
52
44
37
50
Deviation Deviation
from meansquared
-16
256
1
1
-10
100
-12
144
-3
9
0
0
2
4
-6
36
-13
169
SSD =
719
5.38.
No, because there are n 1 = 19 1 = 18 degrees of freedom for these checks once you know their
mean. Since 17 is on less, there is a remaining degree of freedom and you cannot solve for the
missing checks.
5.39.
Yes. ( x1 + + x18 + x19 )/19 = x . Since 18 of the x i are known and so is x , we can solve
the equation for the unknown x19 .
5.40.
df = n-k
as k increases, df decreases, SSD decreases, MSD decreases
5.41.
5.42.
E( X ) = = 1,065
V( X ) = 2 /n = 5002/100 = 2,500
2 = 1,000,000
Want SD( X ) 25
SD( X ) = / n = 1,000 / n
1,000 / n 25
n
n
5.43.
1,000/25 = 40
1,600. The sample size must be at least 1,600.
= 53
E( X ) = = 53
= 10
SE( X ) =
n = 400
n = 10 /
5-9
400 = 0.5

Mean
Stdev
53
10
Sample Size
n
5-44.
400
p = 0.5
Mean
53
Stdev
0.5
n = 120
)=
SE( P
p (1 p )
=
n
(.5)(.5)
= 0.0456
120
p (1 p )
=
n
(.2)(.8)
= 0.04216
90
) = p = 0.2
5.45.E( P
)=
SE( P
.
5.46.P = 0.5 maximizes the variance of P
p (1 p )
)=
V( P
n
Proof:
)
dV ( P
1 d
1
=
(pp 2) =
(1 2p)
dp
dp
n
n
Set the derivative to zero:

1
(1 2p) = 0
1 = 2p
p = 1/2
n
The assertion may also be demonstrated by trying different values of p.
5.47.P(0.72 < X < 0.82) = P(10.95 < Z <16 .432) = 2(.5) = 1.00
known
Mean
0.76
Sample Size
n
30
Stdev
0.02

Mean
Stdev
0.76
0.00365
5-10
P(x1<X<x2)
1.0000
x1
0.72
5.48.P( X
x2
0.82
1.000) = P Z
1,000 1,065
650
= P Z
500 / 10
500
= P(Z 1.3) = .5 + .4032 = 0.9032

We need to use the Central Limit Theorem for a normal distribution.
5-49.
= 53
= 10
n = 400
54 53
52 53
Z
= P(2 < Z < 2) = 0.9544
10 / 20
10 / 20
P(52 < X < 54) = P

5-50.
p = 0.5
n = 120
.45 .5
.45) = P Z
P( P
(.5)(.5) / 120
5-51.
= P(Z
a. $8,128.08 found by $3.3M/406 = 8,128.08
7000 8128.08
2000 / 16
b. P( X < 7000) = P Z
= P(Z < 2.256)
= .5000 .4880 = 0.012

P(X<x)
0.0120
5.52.
1.095) = 0.8632
x
7000
0.06 p 0.10
)=
SE( P
p (1 p ) / n
0.03
Assume p = 0.06:
)=
SE( P
(.06)(.94) / n
(.06)(.94)/n .03
62.66
.03
Now assume the other extreme, p = 0.10:

) = (.1)(.9) / n .03
SE( P
(.1)(.9)/n .032
100 n
5-11
) does not have a maximum point between p = 0.06

Now, we also know that the function SE( P
and p = 0.10 because the only maximum point of the function occurs at p = 0.5 (as we know from
) is monotonic between p = 0.06 and 0.10, and thus n = 100 is the
Problem 5-46). Hence SE( P
minimum required sample size.
5.53.
Random samples from the entire population of interest reduce the chance of a bias and increase
chance of being representative of the entire population. Also, we have a known probability of being
within certain distances of the parameter of interest. We use a frame and a random number
generator or a table of random numbers. A simple random sample is such that every possible set of
n elements has an equal chance of being selected.
5.54.
A bias is a systematic deviation away from the target of estimation. A bias takes us away from the
target parameter in repeated sampling. If the bias is small and variance of the estimator is also
small, the bias may be tolerated, especially if the bias decreases as n increases.
5.55.
The sample median is unbiased. The sample mean is more efficient; it is also sufficient. This is why
we prefer the sample mean. We must assume normality for using the sample median to estimate
. The median is more resistant to outliers.
5.56.
S 2 has n 1 in the denominator because there are n 1 degrees of freedom for deviations from the
sample mean. Using n 1 instead of n makes S 2 an unbiased estimator of 2 .
5.57.
= 44
= 7 n = 50
P( X < 35) = P(Z < -9.0918) = .5 .5 = 0.00

known
Mean
44
Stdev
7
Sample Size
n
50
P(<x)
0.0000
5-58.

Mean
Stdev
44
0.98995
x
35
95% bounds on X :
1.96 / n = 19.5 1.96(5.3/10) = [18.4612, 20.5388]
90% bounds on X :
19.5 1.645(5.3/10) = [18.62815, 20.37185]
5-12
Symmetric Intervals
P(x1<X<x2)
x1
x2
18.46122
0.95
20.538779
18.62823
0.9
20.371772
5-59.
= 3.9
= 0.5
n = 25
3.0 3.9
= 0.5 + 0.5 = 1.000
P( X > 3.0) = P Z
0.5 / 25

Mean
Stdev
3.9
0.5
Sample Size
n
25
x
3

Mean
Stdev
3.9
0.1
P(>x)
1.0000
5.60.df = (rows-1)(columns-1) = (5-1)(3-1) = 8

5-61.
p = 0.38
n = 100
> 0.30) = P Z
P( P
.30 .38
= P(Z > 1.648)
(.38)(.62) / 100
= .5 + .4503 = 0.9503
where stdev = SQRT(.38*.62)
Mean
Stdev
0.38
0.48539
Sample Size
n
100
Mean
0.38
Stdev
0.04854
5-13
x
0.3
5-62.
P(X>x)
0.9503
X is normal. But since
is unknown and we use S, the quantity ( X )/(S/ n )
has the t ( n 1) distribution rather than the standard normal distribution Z.

5-63.
5.64.
No minimum (n = 1 is enough for normality).

, S 2 are unbiased. S is the square root of an unbiased estimator of 2 , thus
X , P
it is not unbiased. Proof:

Assume E(S) =
then: (E(S))2 = 2
and: E(S 2) (E(S))2 = 2 2 = 0 (since E(S 2) = 2 ).
But E(S 2) (E(S))2 = V(S)
V(S) = 0 means that S is not a statistical estimator. The contradiction establishes the proposition
that S is biased.
5.65.
This estimator is also consistent. It is more efficient than X , because 2 /n 2 < 2 /n.
5.66.
df = 124 3 = 121
a. Normal population requires the smallest minimum n.
b. Mound-shaped population requires the next higher minimum n.
c. Discrete population needs the highest minimum n.
d. Slightly skewed population: n more than for (b), less than for (c).
e. Highly skewed population: n less than for (c), but more than for (d).
The relative minimum required sample sizes are as follows:
n a < nb < n d < n e < n c
5.67.
Yes. SE( X ) decreases as n increases:

SE( X ) = / n , which goes to 0 as n goes to
large a sample as possible.
5.68.
Draw repeated samples, preferably by simulation on a computer, and determine the empirical
distribution of the statistic: the relative frequency distribution of its values.
5-14
. Statistically, it is always good to have as
5.69.
< .15) = P Z
P( P
5-71.
= 25
.15 .20
(.2)(.8) / 250
=2
= P(Z < 1.976) = .5 .4759 = 0.0241
n = 100
24 25
P( X < 24) = P Z
= P(Z < 5) = 0.0000003
2 / 10
Not probable at all.
5.72.P P 0.60
0.07
= P(0.53 P
.53 .60
= P
(.60)(.40) / 200
0.67)
.67 .60
= P(2.02
(.60)(.40) / 200
Z 2.02) = 0.9567
Sampling Distribution of Sample Proportion

Population
Proportion
p
0.6
Sample Size
n
200
x1
0.53
Sampling Distribution of P-hat

Mean
Stdev
0.6
0.03464
P(x1<P hat<x2)
0.9567
x2
0.67
1.52 1.57
5.73.P(1.52 < X < 1.62) = P
0 .4 /
200
1.62 1.57
0 .4 /
5-15
= 2TA(1.768) = 0.923
200
5-74.
a) point estimate for the sample mean is 52
Mean
52
Is the population
normal?
Stdev
2.4
Sample Size
n
40
P(X<x)

Mean
Stdev
52
0.37947
P(X>x)
x1
52
b) P( 52 < X < 53) = 0.4958

5-75
(Use template: Sampling Distribution.xls, sheet: p-hat)

n = 400
p = 0.06
Sampling Distribution of Sample Proportion
Population Proportion
p
0.06
Sample Size
n
400
Sampling Distribution of P-hat

Mean
Stdev
0.06
0.01187
P(P-hat < 0.05) = 0.1999

P(<x)
0.1999
5-76
x
0.05

= 15830
= 458
n = 10
Mean
Stdev
15830
458
5-16
P(x1<X<x2)
0.4958
x2
53
Sample Size
n
10

Mean
Stdev
15830
144.832
P ( X 16000) 0.1202
x
16000
5-77
P(>x)
0.1202

= 3.42
= 1.5
n = 30
Mean
Stdev
3.42
1.5
Sample Size
n
30

Mean
Stdev
3.42
0.27386
P( X 4.00) 0.0171
x
4
P(>x)
0.0171
Case 6: Acceptance Sampling of Pins
5-17
1) 0.6210. No it is not an acceptable level of performance

Mean
1.008
Is the population
normal?
Stdev
0.045
Mean
Stdev
1.008 0.00636
50
P(X<x)
P(X>x)
x1
0.99
P(x1<X<x2)
0.6210
x2
1.01
2) 1.00 This would result in the lowest SSD and MSD

3) 0.01104
Mean
1.008
Sample Size
n
50
P(X<x)
Is the population
normal?
Stdev
0.01104
Mean
Stdev
1.008
0.00156
P(X>x)
x1
0.99
P(x1<X<x2)
0.9000
4) for 95% acceptance: stdev = 0.00861, for 99% acceptance: stdev = 0.00609
5) easier to adjust the mean. The production process will always cause vibrations, etc.
5-18
x2
1.01
6)
Reduction
P(0.99 < X <
1.01)
0.9
0.95
0.99
Stdev
0.01104
0.00861
0.00609
stdev Cost
33.96 $ 172,992.24
36.39 $ 198,634.82
38.91 $ 227,098.22
7)
Reduction
P(0.99 < X <
1.01)
Total
Stdev
stdev
Cost
0.9
0.04302
1.98
588.06
0.95
0.03609
8.91
11,908.22
0.99
0.02749
17.51 $
45,990.02
Cost
$
668.06
$
11,988.22
$
46,070.02
8) Use a mean of 1.00 and adjust the standard deviation to 0.02749
5-19

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Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

SAMPLING AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS

= x/n = 5/12 = 0.41667

(5 out of 12 accounts are over $100.)

average price = 4.367

standard deviation = 0.3486

Basic Statistics from Raw Data

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

= x/n = 11/18 = 0.6111, where x = the number of users of the product.

A sampling distribution is the probability distribution of a sample statistic. The sampling

5.12.Only if the population is itself normal.

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

= P(Z < 1.7) = .5 .4554 = 0.0446

Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean

Sampling Distribution of X-bar

= 1 P X 8 = 1 P(8 < X < 8)

= 1 P(1.78 < Z < 1.78)

5.20.P(X > 3.6) = P Z

= P(Z > 1.333) = 0.0912

Sampling Distribution of X-bar

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

5.21.P(12 < X < 15) = P

= P(5.5 < Z < 9.5) = 2 (.5) = 1.000 (approximately)

Sampling Distribution of X-bar

5.22.s = 4,500 n = 225

= P(Z < -2.819) = 0.0024

= P(2.667 < Z < 2.667) = 2(.4961) = 0.9923

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

P(X > $3M) = 0.00

Sampling Distribution of X-bar

Is the population normal?

= P(Z > -3) = .5 + .4987 = 0.9987

Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean

Sampling Distribution of X-bar

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

= P(Z < 1.648) = 0.5 0.4503 =

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Advantage: uses all information in the data.

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

a) the mean is the best number to use.

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

d) SSD = 719, df = 9, MSD = 79.889

1,600. The sample size must be at least 1,600.

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean

Sampling Distribution of X-bar

Set the derivative to zero:

Is the population normal?

Sampling Distribution of X-bar

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

= P(Z 1.3) = .5 + .4032 = 0.9032

P(52 < X < 54) = P

a. $8,128.08 found by $3.3M/406 = 8,128.08

= P(Z < 2.256)

= .5000 .4880 = 0.012

Now assume the other extreme, p = 0.10:

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

) does not have a maximum point between p = 0.06

P( X < 35) = P(Z < -9.0918) = .5 .5 = 0.00

Is the population normal?

Sampling Distribution of X-bar

Chapter 05 - Sampling and Sampling Distributions

(Use template: Sampling Distribution.xls, sheet: x-bar)

Sampling Distribution of X-bar