Why is there so much conflict in the “post-conflict” moment ?

(Cramer
and Goodhand, 2002, Moxham, 2007)
Conflict resurgence in Muslim Mindanao, Aceh, Timor-Leste in Southeast
Asia , In the DRC , Nigeria, Uganda, etc. in Africa; and in parts of India
and Pakistan (South Asia).

1
 Rido Incidence, 1990-2004
(See Kamlian, 2007, Lingga 2007)

90
80
70
60
1990-1994 1995-1999
50
40
2000-2004
30
20
10
0

3
 Intensification of conflict-related violence
(UNDP, 2005), following the 1996 peace agreement

4
 Mindanao and Aceh’s geographic and social exclusion from the
gains of economic growth

FL, 2007

Province/Country ELB Poverty Infant Mortality Percentage of

(per 000) Unemployed
Aceh 55 years 26 % 42 infants 29 %
Indonesia 67 years 17 % 35 infants 12.5 %
ARMM 52 years 45 % 55 infants 56 %
Philippines 71 years 36 % 49 infants 10 %
Table 1 : Comparative human development indicators : Aceh and Muslim Mindanao, WB 2007, UNDP 2005

5
 Annual Change in Real GDP Philippines vs ARMM

20

15

10

ARMM
5
Philippines

0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

-5

-10

6
Manufacturing in ARMM
 Puzzle : While GDP was falling during the war, tax revenues
increased in the ARMM provinces (1997-1998,2001-2003)

1,200,000,000.00 60,000,000,000.00

1,000,000,000.00 50,000,000,000.00

800,000,000.00 40,000,000,000.00

600,000,000.00 30,000,000,000.00 Tax collections

Nominal GDP

400,000,000.00 20,000,000,000.00

200,000,000.00 10,000,000,000.00

- -
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

8
GCE (NSCB, 2008)
Expansion in the Shadow or Underground Economy of
Muslim Mindanao (Lara 2007)
Traditional Sources
Smuggling of goods from Sabah etc.
Trade in small arms and long weapons
Unregistered transport of persons and goods
Unregistered transfers of land
Illegal logging
Non-Traditional Sources
Smuggling of goods from Hongkong, China, etc.
Drug production, distribution, and export
Illegal reproduction and sale of CDs, DVDs, etc.
Extortionary ‘sale” of right of way privileges , illegal
tollgates
Kidnap for Ransom (KFR) activities
Trade in armaments, explosives, and other munitions
(especially before and after elections)
Small scale illegal mining activities
Carnapping and gun for hire
Smuggling of oil and fuel
Illegal and undocumented export of labor
Forgery and sale of official documents, including
certificates of live birth, police clearances, etc.
10
 Some steps to take
• Distinguishing between “conflict onset” and “conflict duration” is
crucial. This is critical for actions of the state, civil society and the
international community to have the desired, strategic impact on
prospects for peace.

• Peacebuilding strategies must include an understanding of how local

clan-related conflict dynamics interacts with armed rebellion.

• A closer exploration of the underground economy and the contestation

for political influence that brings control of this economy is critical.

• It is important to harness a more interdisciplinary approach to move

the peace process forward.