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Presentation Outline
www.ceri.ca
3
Our Work:
Current Work (2014 2015):
LNG Update
Canadian Rail System
Electricity Requirements for Oil Sands Industry
Others
Recently Released Reports (2013 2014):
Others
Periodicals/Monthly Reports:
Alberta
Canada
Images from US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Canadian Centre for Energy Information, and Government of Alberta (GOA)
UPSTREAM
MIDSTREAM
Upgrader/Off-gas plants
Synthetic Gas Liquids (SGLs)
(NGLs/Olefins Mix)
Wellhead or Field
Condensate (C5+)
DOWNSTREAM
Refinery Liquefied
Petroleum Gases (LPGs)
(Primarily C3, C4s)
Propane
Butanes
(C3)
(C4s)
Non-energy Use:
Energy: Retail
Non-energy use
Petrochemical Feedstock
Enhanced Oil Recovery
(EOR)
Commercial/Institutional
Residential
Transportation
Agriculture
Gasoline blending
Petrochemical
Feedstock
Oil sands diluent
Solvent Flood (EOR)
Heating, Other
(left in gas)
Pentanes Plus/
Condensate
(C5+)
Non-energy Use:
Oil Sands Dliuent
Gasoline blending
Petrochemical
Feedstock
Non-energy Use
Petrochemical Feedstock
Solvent Flood (EOR)
Crude Oil
Spec NGLs
~9%
Spec NGLs
Spec NGLs
Fractionators
NGLs Mix
Spec NGLs
Natural Gas
Straddle Plants
~91%
Sales
Gas
Raw Gas
Sales
Gas
NATURAL GAS
10
Pipeline
Est. Capacity (kb/d)
Product
Raw Mix Pipelines to Ft. Saskatchewan
Peace HVP System (NGLs)
76 C2+/ C3+
Cochrane-Edmonton (Co-Ed) System
68 C3+
Brazeau NGL Gathering System
57 C2+
Peace LVP System (Condensate)
52 C5+ (Includes Crude)
Northern System
49 C2+/ C3+
Boreal
43 NGLs/ Olefins Mix
Bonnie Glen
33 C5+ (Includes Crude)
Judy Creek
30 C3+
Total Raw Mix Pipelines Est. Capacity
408
Petrochemical Feedstock Pipelines
Alberta Ethane Gathering System (AEGS)
334 Spec C2
Ethylene Delivery System (EDS)
86 Ethylene
Joffre Feedstock Pipeline (JFP)
48 NGLs
NGL Export Pipelines
Enbridge Mainline (Lines 1/5)*
Kerrobert (to Enbridge)
Alliance Pipeline
Cochin Pipeline
Petroleum Transmission Company**
Total NGL Export Pipelines Est. Capacity
Ft.
Saskatchewan,
AB
23.0
61%
Kerrobert, SK
2.5
6%
Sarnia/
Corunna, ON
12.4
33%
127
124
93
71
27
442
C3+ Mixes
C3+ Mixes
NGLs in Gas
Spec C3/ USMW E/P Mix
Spec C3/ C4
171
48
43
59
321
C5+
Spec C2
Spec C2
Spec C2/ Spec C3
Total: 38 MMb
Figure by CERI, with data from IHS Energy (University of Calgary), AER, BCME, OGJ, SOEP, various industry sources . Logo from Alberta Industrial Heartland Association (AIHA) and City
of Edmonton
11
2,000
200
200
176
1,800
183
1,600
175
159
kb/d of LPG
141
1,400
137
129
123
104
102
1,000
100
800
75
600
50
400
25
200
2002
Facility
Redwater
Alberta Diluent Terminal (ADT)
Edmonton Terminal
Rimbey Rail Terminal
Gilby and Nevis Rail Terminals
Sarnia/ St. Clair/ Windsor
Total
Onwer/ Operator
Pembina Pipeline Corporation
Keyera Corp.
Keyera Corp.
Keyera Corp.
Keyera Corp.
Pembina/ Plains
Type
C5+ rail off load facility
C5+ rail off load
C3,C4, C5+ loading/ offloading
C3, C4, C5 loading
C3, C4, C5 loading
C3, C4, C5 loading
Capacity (kb/d)
75
50
34
13
7
45
225
Location
AB NGL Hub
AB NGL Hub
AB NGL Hub
WCSB
WCSB
Southern ON
Facility
NGLs Infrastructure
NGLs Infrastructure
Redwater Rail Cars
Empress/ Sarnia Rail Cars
LPG Railcars
Total
Onwer/ Operator
Altagas Corp./ Petrogas
Keyera Corp.
Pembina Pipeline Corporation
Pembina Pipeline Corporation
Gibsons Energy
Type
NGLs Rail Cars
NGLs Rail Cars
NGLs Rail Cars
NGLs Rail Cars
NGLs Rail Cars
# of Railcars
1,500
1,300
700
300
500
4,300
Location
WCSB/ US
AB NGL Hub
AB NGL Hub
AB NGL Hub/ ON
WCSB/ US
1,200
125
# of railcars
146
150
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
In 2012, 2/3 (or 88 kb/d) of all Canadian LPG exports (123 kb/d)
moved via rail (C3/C4 split: 75/25)
All exports to US markets
CERI estimates that about 1,700 pressure-rated tank cars would
have been used to transport those volumes, assuming a two-week
return trip
Rail transport is an important component of the LPG supply chain
in Canada
Going forward, most LPG exports from Canada will move via rail
12
kb/d
300
100%
80%
BC NGL Mixes
70%
60%
250
50%
200
150
C5+/ Condensate
40%
30%
100
20%
50
10%
(1)
90%
0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
300
268
250
200
237
100%
KFS
95%
227
217
221
216
209
196
190
192
DFS
90%
194
RFS
85%
kb/d
150
80%
75%
100
400
450
PFS
Total Ft. Sk. Frac. NGLs
70%
Ft. Sk. Fractionation Cap.
50
65%
60%
Utilization (%)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
RESULT: Multi-year, multi-billion $ expansion of NGLs midstream infrastructure in Alberta. Most pipeline and fractionation investments
are expansions of existing assets, while new gas processing plants will be developed at the field level
Crude oil and condensate storage and transportation logistics infrastructure would also be expanding
Figure by CERI, with data from AER and Pembina Pipelines
13
Figures and Analysis by CERI, with data from AER and Industry Data
7%
7%
13%
AltaGas Ltd.
1195714 Alberta Ltd.
8%
11%
9%
11%
10%
Spec NGLs
Deep Cut Plants Expansion & New Builds / Straddle Plants/ Co-stream Facilities
$563
5%
$1,785
16%
Other (87)
$2,953
27%
NGLs Pipelines
Other Gas Processing/ NGLs Extraction Facilities (Mainly Shallow Cut)
$1,358
13%
$1,385
13%
NGLs Fractionation
$2,855
26%
3
LPG Export Terminals
$900
23%
$1,500
38%
14
Infrastructure requirements for such projects will be significant and costly: Multiple billions of dollars
Required infrastructure includes gas gathering systems, gas processing plants, large-diameter/high-volume
gas transportation systems, gas liquefaction plants, NGLs pipelines, fractionation facilities, storage and
logistics facilities
Table and map from NEB
15
16
17
Total Exports to US
229
217
214
Wholesale
220
220
215
Non-energy Use
248
244
207
199
Retail
189
200
4%
Statistical Adjustment
2%
4% 3%
8%
Stock Changes
150
46%
kb/d
Imports
Off-Gas Plants
Refineries
Gas Plants/ Fractionators
Total Supply
100
50
Domestic Demand
Total Disposition
S
(50)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
32%
Ontario
Alberta
Quebec
British Columbia
Saskatchewan
Atlantic provinces
Manitoba
Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut
About 75% of propane supply extracted at gas plants/ fractionators in Canada, other 25% consists of production from refineries, upgraders,
imports, and stock changes
About 50% of propane extracted in Western Canadas gas plants moves to Ontario as an NGL mix to be fractionated
Increased production of NGLs in Western Canada is being driven primarily by increases in propane production
Disposition (Red bars):
Domestic demand increasing rapidly driven by energy uses in the mining, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing sectors, followed by increase
propane use as a petrochemical feedstock in Ontario, and increased use for propane in the residential and commercial sectors
In 2012, Ontario (46%), Alberta (32%), and Quebec (8%), combined, accounted for 86% of domestic propane demand
Overall exports to the US have been declining (shrinking LPG market) with the largest drop occurring in regards to exports to the US Midwest
(PADD II), while increased Canadian exports to the US northeast (PADD I) have displaced US overseas propane imports
Majority of exports to the US now move via rail = higher transportation costs
North America is in an oversupply position and USGC LPG export terminals are acting as a relief valve, keeping prices afloat
Figures and Analysis by CERI, with data from AER, BCMNGD, NEB and Statistics Canada
18
Company
Start-up Year Output (tonnes/ yr) Output (t/ d) C3 Feed (t/d) C3 Feed (kb/d)
PetroLogistics
PetroLogistics
Dow Chemical
Enterprise
Houston, TX
Houston, TX
Freeport, TX
Chambers Co., TX
United States
2010
2014
2015
2015
C3 Petrochemicals
Formosa Plastics
Dow Chemical
Total US
Alvin, TX
Point Comfort, TX
USGC (TX/ LA)
2015
2016
2018
Williams
Total Canada
Strathcona (AIH), AB
582,400
582,400
682,500
623,350
1,596
1,596
1,870
1,708
2,026
2,026
2,375
2,169
25
25
29
27
582,400
728,000
500,500
4,281,550
1,596
1,995
1,371
11,730
2,026
2,533
1,741
14,897
25
31
22
185
500,500
500,500
1,371
1,371
1,741
1,741
22
22
4,782,050
13,102
16,639
207
Canada
2016
(2) High global LPG prices and improved propane netbacks in North
America through an existing arbitrage opportunity have resulted in
various LPG export project proposals/expansions
Including two in the West Coast targeting WCSB LPGs with the
potential to export ~70 kb/d to the Asia-Pacific market
Pembina has applied for an NEB export license plus made a deal
with the Portland (OR) Port Authority for an LPG export site
Enterprise
Targa
Chevron (Acquired by Petrogas)
Other
Total Operating
Location
In Operation
United States
Houston, TX
Galena Park, TX
Ferndale, WA
Miami, Norfolk, NY,
Seatlle, LA
Start-up Year
n/a
n/a
n/a
3,780
1,764
460
247
115
30
n/a
26
6,030
2
393
600
1,500
2,218
756
1,008
3,024
3,532
3,528
1,150
17,316
39
98
145
49
66
197
230
230
75
1,130
Proposed
United States
Marcus Hook, PA
Beaumont, TX
Baytown, TX
Houston, TX
Galena Park, TX
Nederland, TX
Moss Lake, LA
Houston, TX
Corpus Christi, TX
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2017
Canada
Portland, OR
BC Coast
2018
2017
570
460
1,030
18,346
24,376
19
37
30
67
1,197
1,590
US Exports
Non-energy Use
140
118
115
120
119
111
123
122
114
Statistical Adjustment
115
103
96
100
96
Stock Changes
Imports
Off-Gas Plants
80
kb/d
(1) Butanes
SUPPLY: Production from gas plants flat.
Refinery LPG production decreasing.
Extraction from synthetic gas liquids is
minimal. Flat import volumes from US
Refineries
60
40
Total Supply
20
Domestic Demand
Total Disposition
(20)
(40)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
120
95
100
80
76
80
98
97
Solvent Flood
95
86
80
Diluent
75
72
65
kb/d
2007
60
Petrochemical
40
Refinery Feedstock
20
Domestic Demand
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Figures and Analysis by CERI, with data from AER, BCMNGD, EIA, NEB, Statistics Canada and Industry Data
20
MT BELVIEU % OF WTI
Propane Pricing
100%
90%
$100.00
80%
70%
$80.00
$60.00
50%
$/BBL
60%
40%
$40.00
30%
20%
$20.00
10%
0%
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May
Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May
Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
$-
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$12.00
$120.00
$100.00
$10.00
PRICING BAND
WCSB - ASIA PACIFC ARBITRAGE ($/BBL)
AB PROPANE @ EDM ($/BBL)
MT BELVIEU PROPANE @ USGC ($/BBL)
SAUDI PROPANE CP FOB @ ME ($/BBL)
SAUDI % OF CRUDE OIL (BRENT)
60%
55%
$8.00
50%
$6.00
45%
$4.00
40%
$2.00
35%
120%
100%
$80.00
80%
$60.00
60%
$40.00
40%
$20.00
20%
$-
$(20.00)
$-
30%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Data from industry and various data sources. All figures by CERI
2010
2011
2012
0%
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May
Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May
Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
65%
$14.00
(1) In North America (NA), prices are set at Mt. Belvieu, TX (USGC).
C3 normally trades at a price range between the price of C2 (floor:
petrochemical feedstock) and butanes (ceiling: fuels market).
Given propanes widespread use in the heating market, weather is
an important pricing factor Across
(2) North American C3 prices: Edmonton trades at a discount to
Conway which in turn trades at a discount to Mt. Belvieu (USGC).
The USGC-EDM differential has widened to reflect increasing
transportation costs as more LPG moves via rail to export markets
(3) Internationally, globally traded prices are set according to the
Saudi contract price (CP), which is highly correlated to crude oil
prices, thus creating a large arbitrage opportunity between
Western Canada and areas served by Saudi CP contracts such as the
Asia-Pacific region
$120.00
$/BBL
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
21
2010
2011
2012
2013 2014
Butanes Pricing
1
$180.00
$140.00
140%
$160.00
120%
$140.00
100%
$100.00
80%
$80.00
60%
$/BBL
$120.00
$60.00
40%
$40.00
20%
$20.00
0%
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May
Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May
Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
$-
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 2014
$20.00
140%
$10.00
$120.00
120%
$100.00
$-
80%
$40.00
60%
$(10.00)
$60.00
$/BBL
100%
$80.00
$(20.00)
$20.00
40%
$-
USGC-EDM ($/BBL)
USGC-CONWAY ($/BBL)
$(30.00)
20%
$(20.00)
0%
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May
Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May
Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
$(40.00)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Data from industry and various data sources. All figures by CERI
2011
2012
2013 2014
CONWAY-EDM ($/BBL)
$(40.00)
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May
Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May
Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan
Jun
Nov
Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
$/BBL
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
22
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 2014
Netback @ Wellhead
$70.00
$60.00
$31
$19
$23
$16
$33
$21
$40.00
$15
$20
$5
$17
$30.00
$14
$17
$17
$17
Japan
China
India
$17
$17
Mt. Belvieu, TX
$14
Sarnia, ON
$14
Edmonton, AB
India
$14
Mt. Belvieu, TX
$14
Via Rail
$14
Via Pipeline
$14
China
$14
Japan
$14
India
$14
China
$10.00
$20.00
Japan
$/bbl
$50.00
$32
$-
USGC to USGC to
Sarnia Local
Market
Netback = Price at target market location marketing costs to get the product to market location
Marketing costs include: processing, fractionation, storage, and transportation costs
In the figure above, work from the black dot (market price at destination) and subtract all the marketing costs (green,
orange, and light blue bars) to get to the estimated netback (bright blue bars)
Data from industry and various data sources. All figures by CERI
23
3.5
3.1
3.1
2.5
2.3
2.8
2.7
Refinery Production
2.9
2.8
Imports
2.6
Statistical Adjsutment
2.3
MMb/d
2.0
Transportation
1.5
Industrial Use
Transformation Processes
1.0
Industry Own-Use
Exports
0.5
Total Supply
Estimated Domestic Demand
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
24
75
77
76
75
76
71
US Imports
Off-Gas Plants
83
89
Refineries
82
82
95
90
Statistical Adjustment
Stock Changes
81
110
100
117
119
151
128
158
150
205
188
96
198
200
140
kb/d
99
228
213
378
369
Non-Energy Demand
81
250
356 362
65
266
246 242 240 243 244
243
79
297 295
84
288
300
71
350
74
339 345
330 330 331 335
50
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
158
151
140
140
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
OUTLOOK
180
128
Export to PADD V
Export to PADD IV
Export to PADD II
Export to PADD I
Pembina: Portland, OR
Altagas/Idemitsu: BC Coast
Petrogas: Ferndale, WA
119 117
120
110
99
90
96 95
89
82 82
81 81
84
83
79
76 75 76 77
75 74
71 71
2023
100
100
2022
160
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
kb/d
80
65
60
40
20
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
OUTLOOK
25
Evolving Propane dynamics in Canada: What is required for West Coast LPG exports?
Eastern Canada
Western Canada
120
100
250
kb/d
80
89
94 91 91
98
89
96
82
60
72 75
102
96 94
160
90
80
72
44 47
45
56
50 53
60 63
67
71
75
35
20
26
100
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
120
100
80
60
50
140
40
150
40
20
OUTLOOK
Refinery Production
Statistical Adjustment
Available for Exports
90
80
83
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
OUTLOOK
Upgrader SGLs
Stocks
Est. Transfers to Eastern Canada
2004
2002
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
Gas Plants Extraction
Imports
Local Demand
2003
OUTLOOK
Refinery Production
Stocks
Eastern Canada Exports to US
70
68
80
70
60
30
84
83
79
75 74
71 71
76 75 76 77
65
45
50
42 44
20
70
39
- - - - - - - - - - - - 8
83
75
74
60
26
19
10
90
80
45 45
5 - - - - - - - - - - - -
50
61 59
52
40
49
46
39 38
30
20
44 44
38
26
18
10
OUTLOOK
5 - - - - - - - - - - - -
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
30
20
90
54
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
30
10
50
58 58 59
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
50
40
40
100
54
18
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
OUTLOOK
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
80
OUTLOOK
70
60
76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76
kb/d
50
52
40
30
Global/Asia-Pacific
LPG Market
28
20
US Markets
10
2 2 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 4
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
90
50
kb/d
kb/d
60
kb/d
kb/d
200
180
kb/d
300
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
26
OUTLOOK
kb/d
16
14
13
10
11
12
13
16
Statistical Adjustment
Stock Changes
US Imports
20
16
28
28
101 98
129 131
123 126
Off-gas Plants
25
96
17
24
26
28
31
80
115
28
36
32
42
96
122
114
111
103
100
123
20
119
24
120
118 115
12
140
Refineries
Total Gas Plants
60
Avaialble for Exports
Solvent Floods/Oil Sands Solvents
40
Diluent
20
Petrochemical
-
Refinery Feedstock
TOTAL SUPPLY
(20)
20022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
45
OUTLOOK
42
Export to PADD V
Export to PADD IV
Export to PADD III
Export to PADD II
Export to PADD I
LPG Exports
Avaialble for Exports
LPG Terminals Spare Export Capacity Available
40
36
35
30
kb/d
25
32
31
28
28
28 28 28
26
24
25
24
20
20
20
20
17
16
16
16
13 12
15
11 10
12
13
14
10
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
OUTLOOK
27
100
76
80
97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97
Propane
84
85
76
80
70
65
kb/d
60
58
60
43
40
30
18
20
30
18
20
0
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
OUTLOOK
100
120
97 97 97 97
Propane
100
91
kb/d
50
43
NO LNG PROJECTS
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
OUTLOOK
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2030
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2004
2003
2023
18
20
2002
2022
30
8
0
2021
43
40
18
20
93
60
45
30
2002
kb/d
60
88 88 90
82 81
69
64
56
88 86
76
80
71
97 95
91
Propane
81
76
40
2020
2019
2018
Butanes
94
2016
OUTLOOK
LNG TSUNAMI
2015
HISTORICAL/ACTUAL
NOWHERE FAST
120
2014
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2003
2002
8
-
47
43
40
2017
kb/d
100
91
Propane
97 97 97 97 97 97 97
OUTLOOK
28
1,400
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
kb/d
1,600
800
800
600
400
400
200
200
HISTORICAL
Canadian LPG Exportable Surplus
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
600
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
OUTLOOK
HISTORICAL
250
1,600
1,400
200
1,200
kb/d
150
100
1,000
800
600
400
50
200
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kb/d
OUTLOOK
HISTORICAL
Propane Exportable Surplus
OUTLOOK
Butanes Exportable Surplus
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kb/d
HISTORICAL
Propane Exportable Surplus
OUTLOOK
Butanes Exportable Surplus
29
Supply diversification
Thank you!
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Comments?
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31