Engineering Probability and

Statistics
Probability: Introduction and Basic
Counting Principles

Introduction
The Role of Probability in Statistics
When you toss a single coin, you will see
either a head (H) or a tail (T). If you toss the
coin repeatedly, you will generate an infinitely
large number of Hs and Ts the entire
population.

Introduction
The Role of Probability in Statistics
Now suppose you are not sure whether the
coin is fair; that is, you are not sure whether
the makeup of the population is 50-50.
Statistics is deterministic, while Probability is
probabilistic.

Events and Sample Space

Experiment the process which an observation
(or measurement) data is obtained through
either uncontrolled events in nature or
controlled situations in a laboratory.
Sample Space the set whose elements are all
the possible outcomes of an experiment.
Sample Points elements in a sample space

Events and Sample Space

Finite Sample Space has a finite number of
outcomes
ex. Outcomes of a single coin tossed
S = {H, T}
Infinite Sample Space has an infinite number
of outcomes
ex. Waiting time at the bus stop

Events and Sample Space

Event a subset of the sample space.
Simple Event an event that contains one
sample point.
Null Space {} or Empty Set has no outcomes,
cannot occur.

Set Operations
A U B = the event that occurs if A occurs or B
occurs (or both)
A B = the event that occurs if A occurs and B
occurs
A = complement of A; the event that A does not
occur

Set Operations
Two events A and B are said to be mutually
exclusive events if they are disjoint, i.e.,
A B = or {}

Example 1
Consider tossing a die and recording the number
that comes up.
Sample Space: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let
A = event that odd number occurs
B = event that even number occurs
C = event that a perfect square occurs

Example 1
A = {1, 3, 5}

B= {2, 4, 6}

C = {1, 4}

Then
B U C = {1, 2, 4, 6}
A C = {1}
C = {2, 3, 5, 6}
Note that A and B are mutually exclusive, i.e.,
AB=

Example 2
Two coins are tossed simultaneously. Then the
possible outcomes are
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Let
A = event that a head appears on any coin
B = event that both outcomes of the coins are
the same

Example 2
A = {HH, HT, TH}
n(A) = 3
Then
A B = {HH}
AUB=S

B = {HH, TT}
n(B) = 2

Venn Diagram
Example:
100 students took part in the survey asking about
their favorite subjects. The following are the
responses:
40 chose Science
35 chose Math
30 chose English
20 chose both Science & Math
18 chose both Science & English
15 chose both Math & English
9 chose all 3 subjects

Solution
ENTIRE SAMPLE SPACE

11
9
Sc
11 9 9 6
6E
TOTAL = 100

39

More on Example Problem

n(S) = 100
n(Sc U M U E) = 61
n(Sc M E) = 9
n(M only) = 9
n(Sc U M U E) = 39
n(Sc M E) = 91

Basic Counting Techniques

Listing Method
Consider the experiment that a coin and a die are
tossed simultaneously. The sample space is
S = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}

Basic Counting Techniques

Tree Method

Basic Counting Techniques

Multiplication Rule
If a certain experiment can be performed in n1
ways and corresponding to each of these ways
another experiment can be performed in n2
ways, then the combined experiment can be
performed in n1 n2 ways.
Therefore
Scoin Sdie = (2)(6) = 12 ways

Example 1
If repetition is not allowed, (a) how many threedigit numbers can be formed from the digits 1,
2, 4, 5, and 6? (b) How many of these are odd?
A three-digit number is composed of hundreds
(102), tens (101), and units (100) digits.
Therefore,
5 4 3 = 60 three-digit numbers
102 101 100

Example 1
If we restrict ourselves only to those odd
numbers, then there are
4 3 2 = 24 three-digit numbers
102 101 100

Permutation of Distinct Objects

Factorial Method
The number of permutations of n distinct objects is
n!
n! = n(n 1)... 21
Example:
The letters a, b, and c are to be arranged. The
possible arrangements are
abc
bac
cab
acb
bca
cba

Example
The number of ways is computed to be
3! = 6 ways

Permutation of Distinct Objects

Permutation (nPr)
The number of permutations of n objects taken r
at a time is

n!
nPr=
(n r )!

Example
Consider the case if only two of the three letters
from the previous example are to be arranged,
then the possible arrangements are
ab
ba

ac
ca

bc
cb

There are 6 ways for the arrangement.

Example
By computation,

3!
3 P2 =
(3 2)!
3 P2 = 6 ways

Permutation of Distinct Objects

Circular Permutation
The number of permutations of n distinct
objects arranged in a circle is
(n 1)!

Permutation of Distinct Objects

Example:
Suppose that the letters a, b, and c are to be
arranged in a circular way, then the possible
arrangements are

b
c

There are only two ways.

c
b

Example
By computation,
(n 1) = (3 1)!
= 2 ways

Example 2
If 4 Americans, 3 Chinese and 3 Africans are to
be seated in a round table, how many seating
arrangements are possible
a. regardless of nationality?
b. when people of the same nationality sit next
to each other?

Example 2
Solution
a. Regardless of the nationality, the number of arrangements
of the 10 people in a circle is
(10 1)! = 9! = 362,880 ways
b. Considering the three groups
(3 1)! = 2! = 2 ways
Considering each nationality
Americans: 4! = 24 ways
Chinese: 3! = 6 ways
Africans: 3! = 6 ways
Altogether:
2! 4! 3! 3! = 1,728 ways

Permutation with Repetition

The number of distinct permutations of n
distinct objects of which n1 are of the first
kind, n2 of the second kind, ..., nk of the kth
kind is
n

n!

=
n1 , n2 ,...nk n1 ! n2 ! ... nk

Also applicable for partitioning or groupings of

all the n objects.

Example 1
In how many ways can the letters of the word
indeterminate be arranged?
Solution:
Since there are 13 letters in the given word and
out of these, there are some letters with
repetition.

Solution
Let

Then

n1 = number of letter i = 2
n2 = number of letter n = 2
n3 = number of letter d = 1
n4 = number of letter e = 3
n5 = number of letter t = 2
n6 = number of letter r = 1
n7 = number of letter m = 1
n8 = number of letter a = 1
13

13!
=
= 129, 729, 600 ways

2, 2,1,3, 2,1,1,1 2!2!1!3!2!1!1!1!

Example 2
In how many ways can 10 people be assigned in
groups of 1, 2, 3, and 4 members.
Solution:
10
10!
= 12, 600 ways

=
1, 2,3, 4 1!2!3!4!

Combination
The combination of n objects taken at r at a
time, where order does not count, is

n
n!
C (n, r ) or nCr or =
r r !(n r )!

Example
A school wants to buy 6 computers for its
laboratory from a local supplier. The supplier
has 10 computers in stock, 4 of which are
foreign-made.
a. Find how many ways there are to buy 6
computers from the supplier.
b. Find how many ways there are to buy
computers if the school prefers 4 local and 2
foreign-made computers.

Solution
a.

10C6

= 210 ways

b. (6C4)(4C2) = 90 ways

Special Cases for Permutation

1. Clustering/Grouping
Example:
Six people are seated in a row. In how many
ways can they be arranged if two of them
would want to be sitting next to each other?
Solution:
5!2! = 240 ways

Special Cases for Permutation

2. Complement of Clustering/Grouping
Example:
Consider the previous example of six people
seated in a row. In how many ways can they
be arranged if two people dont want to sit
next to each other?
Solution:
6! 5!2! = 480 ways

Additive Rule for Permutation

1. Inclusive Range (using phrases at most & at least)
Example:
Consider 10 books: 3 Algebra, 4 Trigonometry, 3 Physics,
to be arranged in a book shelf where only 5 books can
be placed. How many ways
a. can one arrange books on the shelf?
b. can one arrange 2 Algebra, 2 Trigonometry, and 1
Physics book?
c. can one arrange with at most 3 Trigonometry books?
d. can one arrange with at least 2 Algebra books?

Additive Rule for Permutation

Solution:
a. 10P5 = 30,240 ways
b. 3P24P23P1 = 216 ways
c. T = 3: 4P36P2 = 720 ways
T = 2: 4P26P3 = 1440 ways
T = 1: 4P16P4 = 1440 ways
T = 0: 4P06P5 = 720 ways
Total
4320 ways

Additive Rule for Permutation

d. A = 2: 3P27P3 = 1260 ways
A = 3: 3P37P2 = 252 ways
Total
1512 ways

Additive Rule for Permutation

2. Exclusive Range (using phrases greater/more than &
less than)
Example:
Consider 10 books: 3 Algebra, 4 Trigonometry, 3 Physics,
to be arranged in a book shelf where only 5 books can
be placed. How many ways
a. can one arrange with less than 3 Trigonometry books?
b. can one arrange with greater than 2 Algebra books?
c. can one arrange without Physics books?

Additive Rule for Permutation

a. T = 2:
T = 1:
T = 0:

4P26P3 = 1440 ways

4P16P4 = 1440 ways
4P06P5 = 720 ways
Total
3600 ways
b. A = 3: 3P37P2 = 252 ways
c. P = 0: 3P07P5 = 2520 ways

Additive Rule for Combination

1. Inclusive Range (using phrases at most & at
least)
Example:
Consider 10 students: 4 boys and 6 girls to be
selected to form a team of 5 quizzers. How many
ways
a. can a team be formed?
b. can a team be formed with 2 boys and 3 girls?
c. can a team be formed with at most 3 girls?
d. can a team be formed with at least 3 boys?

Additive Rule for Combination

Solution:
a. 10C5 = 252 ways
b. 4C26C3 = 120 ways
c. G = 3: 6C34C2 = 120 ways
G = 2: 6C24C3 = 60 ways
G = 1: 6C14C4 = 6 ways
G = 0: 6C04C5 = ways (since there are
only 4 boys)
Total
186 ways

Additive Rule for Combination

d. B = 3: 4C36C2 = 60 ways
B = 4: 4C46C1 = 6 ways
Total
66 ways

Additive Rule for Combination

2. Exclusive Range (using phrases greater/more
than & less than)
Example:
Consider 10 students: 4 boys and 6 girls to be
selected to form a team of 5 quizzers. How many
ways
a. can a team be formed with more than 2 boys?
b. can a team be formed with less than 5 girls?
c. can an all-boys team be formed?

Additive Rule for Combination

Solution:
a. B = 3:
B = 4:
b. G = 4:
G = 3:
G = 2:
G = 1:
G = 0:

4C36C2 = 60 ways
4C46C1 = 6 ways
Total
66 ways
6C44C1 = 60 ways
6C34C2 = 120 ways
6C24C3 = 60 ways
6C14C4 = 6 ways
6C04C5 = ways
Total
246 ways

Additive Rule for Combination

c. Since there are only four boys, then the
number of ways that an all boys team can be
formed is
6C04C5 = ways