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Before we get into todays presentation, the first two slides contain our usual
disclaimers.
Todays presentation will be posted on our website and you can refer to it at your leisure.
Before we get into todays presentation, the first two slides contain our usual
disclaimers.
Todays presentation will be posted on our website and you can refer to it at your leisure.
Finally, in building long-term value for our shareholders, our repeatable strategy is clear
and concise.
It is about finding hydrocarbons, enabling their development through having the right
partners and funding, and maintaining a material interest in the resources we develop.
Now before I came to New York this week, I was in Paris meeting with Total.
While I was there I also met Papua New Guineas Minister for Petroleum and Energy,
Nixon Duban.
I came away even more confident than when I arrived.
Total the Government of Papua New Guinea indeed, the whole Elk-Antelope joint
venture are fully committed to this project.
Total have a large team at work and the venture expect to make the concept select
decision for the LNG project mid-year.
They are committed as we all are to ensuring plant design matches gas reserves and
like us are pushing forward on the appraisal program.
We all want to maximize volumes because that will maximize value.
We have almost finalized the transition of operatorship to Total and they could be
operating PRL-15 from early next quarter.
As Total assumes operatorship they will be ramping up their presence in Papua New
Guinea.
Soon, we will have a world-class LNG operator operating a world-class gas field.
For InterOil and for our shareholders this is how we are going to unlock the significant
value in Elk-Antelope.
Other key members of our team are also present today, including Dave Holland, a
geological pioneer of the Eastern Papuan Basin who holds a special place in the InterOil
story.
They will be happy to speak with you after the meeting.
To start, I will hand over to Jon
Before we go into the appraisal program, I want to step back and look at why the ElkAntelope LNG project remains so attractive, not just for PNG and the joint venture, but
also for the shareholders, the financiers, the contractors, and most importantly, the
customers.
In one sentence it is shaping up to be one of the worlds lowest-cost, new-build LNG
projects.
Don will go through the metrics in more detail later.
Elk-Antelope gas has significant advantages over other molecules looking for a market.
First, as a general rule lowest-cost molecules get monetized first.
Second Elk-Antelope sits in the middle of a highly prospective gas province.
Third we believe Elk-Antelope is not alone, which means significant expansion
potential for the LNG plant.
These are all outstanding attributes.
Lets turn to slide 8.
First proving up additional volumes increases the net present value of the project to
InterOil we are simply selling more hydrocarbons.
Second proving up additional volumes increases the size of the payments from Total.
Therefore, a more rigorous appraisal now is more likely to prove up additional value and
generate near-term cash payments to InterOil.
For example, at 7 Tcfe this analysis shows the net present value to InterOil is nearly $3
billion.
At 9 Tcfe, the net present value would be over $4 billion.
This is why our near-term focus remains on the best possible appraisal of Elk-Antelope.
But, of course, we will have to wait for reserves certification to know the final outcome.
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Slide 11 shows the reservoir rock types we expected before drilling Antelope-4 a good
quality upper limestone followed by an excellent quality dolomite and then a lesser
quality lower limestone.
But this well actually intersected dolomite from the top of the reservoir and throughout
the cored interval.
Generally, the average porosity for carbonates is less than 15%.
However, we encountered dolomite with porosity as high as 25%.
The insert picture shows a thin-section about the size of a small coin taken from the
Antelope-4 core, and is an excellent example of how we examine reservoir quality.
Petrologists saturated this section with a viscous blue resin that filled the holes in the
rock, which allows us to measure the porosity.
The positive contribution to gas volumes from this dolomite could be considerable.
The Joint Venture has now agreed to a side-track to determine the total dolomite
section in the southern flank.
Now lets move to Slide 12 and Antelope-5.
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Technology is providing significantly better resolution of gravity and seismic data and
recent reprocessing data has shown that the bounding fault of the Antelope field may
extend even further west than previously mapped.
This can be seen in the post-drill map on the left, which was drawn after Antelope-4 and
-5 were drilled.
This interpretation has significant positive implications for our view of the field.
As illustrated in the cross-section on the right, a fault that lies further to the west will
increase the amount of reservoir above the gas-water contact.
The map in the center indicates the higher quality resolution of the recently acquired
aerial gravity data.
The areas of interest are the red and yellow colors.
The yellow circle denotes where we can see potential upside.
We have also highlighted three different scenarios for the fault.
What is exciting is that our previous mid-case has now become our new low case.
We are now evaluating all options, including an appraisal well, to test the extent of the
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fault, the top of structure and the extension of the high quality reservoir to the west.
Also, while we are on this slide it is hard not to notice the Raptor trend and Antelope
South prospect.
Lets move on to Slide 14
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Antelope-6 is a test of the eastern flank of the field and will provide important structural
control over the eastern side.
As we have seen in Antelope-4 and -5, the reefal rim may actually extend to the
Antelope-6 location, as indicated by the yellow arrows.
This would represent a further resource upside.
Site preparation for Antelope-6 is well advanced and we expect to spud in the second
half of 2015.
Lets turn to slide 16.
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On slide 16, we consider the extensive data that we have acquired over the Antelope
field.
To date, we believe these results support
a single gas column
with field-wide communication
and no evidence of compartmentalization.
In particular, if you take a look at the chart on the right, the pressure data is plotted
against depth.
It defines a single gas gradient in red and single water gradient in blue.
This supports the view that Antelope is one giant field without compartmentalization.
These are great attributes and give Elk-Antelope a significant competitive advantage for
development and production.
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After starting flow testing at Antelope-5, we have now collected over 115 hours of flow
data.
In April, we did an initial clean up test where we flowed 74 million standard cubic feet a
day.
Recently, we concluded a four-rate flow test where the results can be seen on the chart
on the right.
The red line shows the gas flow rate at four different choke sizes over different flow
periods.
The black line shows minimal drawdown in well head tubing pressure, over the same
periods.
These results further demonstrate the wells deliverability and capacity to be a prolific
producer.
A pressure gauge has already been successfully set in Antelope-1 to monitor the
pressure responses during the four-rate flow test.
Following venture approval of an Antelope-4 side track, a full high-rate interference test
is planned between Antelope-5, Antelope-1 and Antelope-4.
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Slide 21 explains InterOils history of exploration success in the Eastern Papuan Basin.
Our first discovery was at Elk-1 in 2006, which was the first indication of the basins
enormous potential.
This was followed in 2007 by Elk-4, which was actually the discovery well for the
Antelope field.
After further appraisal of Antelope, we discovered Triceratops in 2012, our third
discovery in the basin.
In 2014, we followed these successes with the Raptor and Bobcat discoveries.
In short, we have had five discoveries in succession.
This is an enviable position that also shows we are working with tremendous resource
potential.
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Slide 22 shows one of the two tools that we use to advance our portfolio.
It also shows how technology has significantly improved.
To that end, I will talk to you about an exciting new technology that we are applying to
the Eastern Papuan Basin aerial gravity gradiometry that increases resolution by up to
20 times.
To the left, you can see an example of the conventional gravity survey that was used
when we discovered Elk-Antelope.
In this map, we can make out the shapes of Antelope, Antelope South and the large
Raptor trend to the west of Antelope.
On the right is a corresponding example of our new gravity gradiometry data showing far
higher resolution.
With this data set, you can actually make out individual faults.
InterOil is currently acquiring aerial gravity over its entire 16,000sqkm of acreage in the
Eastern Papuan Basin.
This is providing a step-change in our ability to image our portfolio and will allow us to
become far more effective in defining our opportunities.
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A key component of our ability to explore and appraise in the basin is the use of seismic
data, as shown on Slide 23.
Seismic is a very valuable tool in pre-drill risk reduction.
The left chart shows the original data over Elk-Antelope where you can faintly see the
field, as well as the White Tail prospect.
This seismic line was actually used in the Elk-Antelope discovery.
The right chart is a reprocessed version of the same seismic line using modern
technology.
The difference is profound.
We can clearly see how modern computers using modern algorithms can improve the
data set significantly.
This allows us to be more effective in appraising and exploring our acreage.
For example, other structures such as Mule Deer which we could not see before are
now obvious.
While this slide is about reprocessing of previous surveys, lets not forget that we are
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also continuing to apply modern technology as we acquire new seismic to high-grade our
prospects, leads and appraisal.
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Success at Wahoo will also de-risk other leads that have been identified, such as Mako to
the south.
Wahoo is also relatively close to the coast and has road access to Port Moresby.
A successful Wahoo would therefore be one of the closest gas discoveries to Port
Moresby with potentially lower development and production costs than other discoveries
in Papua New Guinea.
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The seismic section on Slide 26 shows Raptor to the left and Antelope to the right.
In between are two other features known as White Tail and Mule Deer.
The seismic and well data are extremely encouraging.
When we first entered the Raptor reservoir late last year, we flared gas at surface.
We also found high concentrations of condensate.
Raptor is a deep penetration of the limestone and later this year, we plan to do a sidetrack and flow test.
Based on our internal estimates, Raptor has the potential to be another giant, with a
mid-case of 5.5 Tcfe.
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And finally I will quickly recap on the potential of the Eastern Papuan Basin.
We have found one giant already and our success rate is currently five out of five.
Through a rigorous process, we have been filtering our 35 leads to find those that offer
the best chance of commercial success.
And as Jon said earlier we believe Elk-Antelope is not alone.
With that, I will hand over to Don.
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Thank you Saxon, and welcome to everyone at our annual meeting here today.
For my part of our presentation today, I would like to start with:
A quick overview of our financial position, including having a look at the cash flow we
will receive from the deal we did with Total, as well as the timing of when we expect to
receive the initial certification payment.
I will also touch on the savings we have negotiated on the unit costs for our drilling and
seismic activities.
Then I will finish with a more detailed discussion on the economic attractiveness of the
Elk-Antelope LNG Project.
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Starting with the slide we presented at our first quarter update last month, we had $628
million of liquidity at the end of March, consisting of $328 million of cash and
receivables and the fully undrawn Credit Suisse-led facility of $300 million.
This is a very healthy position for us to be in as we move towards the development of
the Elk-Antelope LNG Project.
Turning to our costs for this year, we have seen our seismic and drilling unit costs come
down as the fall in the oil price has dampened global activity.
The day rates for our new rigs have come down by as much as 25 per cent.
With logistics, the cost of barging equipment back and forth to our sites has also
reduced by nearly 25 per cent.
And on seismic, rates have dropped by nearly 20 per cent.
Notwithstanding the extensive level of activity this year, it is pleasing to see the unit
costs for these activities continue to fall.
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Slide 32 sets out the payments we can expect to receive from the deal we completed
with Total last year.
If we focus on the dark blue bar, we can see the certification payment we will receive
from Total at the completion of the appraisal program.
As we have mentioned before, on a base volume of 7.1 Tcfe, the certification payment
we will receive will be nearly $600 million, plus an additional $517 million at final
investment decision.
For every Tcfe above 7.1, we receive an additional $400 million.
The main theme for the structure of the deal we did with Total was to ensure we get
paid for every molecule we find in the Antelope field.
This includes a potential second certification payment after production has commenced.
In addition to the certification payments:
We also have the exploration bonus, where Total provides a carry on one exploration
well of up to 75% for the first $60 million, plus they will pay $65 million for every Tcfe
above the first Tcfe we find in the Antelope South prospect.
We should also note here that with the drilling of Antelope-6 due to commence during
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the third quarter this year, the timing for receipt of the certification payment will likely
move into the first quarter of 2016.
Our focus right now, is to define the right volume for Elk-Antelope so we can correctly
size the development and achieve the best long-term value outcome.
The volume we certify at Antelope is, therefore, far more important than the timing of
the certification payment as we remain well funded following the recent extension of the
Credit Suisse facility.
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Now lets take a look at slide 33 and the cost competitiveness of the Elk-Antelope LNG
Project.
The ExxonMobil-led PNG LNG Project has proved to be one of the lowest cost LNG
projects globally.
At a total cost of approximately $19 billion, this equates to about $2,300 a tonne.
Our project at Elk-Antelope, according to research by various analysts, will be even lower
cost than the ExxonMobil project, and is forecast to come in around $2,050.
So why is our project forecast to be lower cost?
Firstly, Antelope is one big field, whereas the ExxonMobil project had to aggregate from
seven different fields
Secondly, the Antelope field is much closer to the coast, hence will require a shorter
pipeline, and
And finally, because our project has direct river access, it will substantially reduce our
transportation costs.
These all add up to substantial costs savings for our project, and as I mentioned earlier,
lead to a forecast construction cost of approximately $2,050 per tonne.
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So how do LNG projects in PNG compare with other LNG projects in Australasia?
Lets turn to slide 34.
This cost profile shows Elk-Antelope as being the lowest cost LNG project in the region.
What it also shows is that PNG when you look at the actual cost for the ExxonMobil
project and the forecast cost for Elk-Antelope is one of the lowest-cost countries to
build LNG projects.
And in this lower oil price environment, lowest cost always goes first.
This is very encouraging for not only the initial development at Elk-Antelope, but also
the prospects for long-term expansion.
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So how strong will that market be when we look for those future buyers of our gas?
Turning to slide 35.
Wood Mackenzie has done a lot of work on how much additional supply will enter the
market to meet the ever growing need for energy supply.
The main chart on the left of the slide shows contracted supply keeping pace with
demand until the end of this decade.
But what happens from early 2020 onwards is that demand continues to increase well in
excess of the contracted supply.
This normally leads to a higher pricing environment.
So why do they believe that demand will exceed supply?
Firstly, as you can see from this slide, existing contracted supply will start to taper off
from 2021.
Secondly, if we look at the chart on the bottom right of this slide, demand from China is
expected to double between now and 2020 and then continues to grow over the next
decade.
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And then thirdly, in this lower oil price environment, only a small number of new
greenfield projects will be built.
Only projects with lower cost profiles will be developed in the current low oil price
environment.
And as we have already seen, Elk-Antelope is forecast to be one of the lowest cost new
build projects to be developed.
To reinforce the cost benefits that LNG projects have in PNG if we look at the chart in
the top right hand corner PNG sits right on the doorstep of the worlds largest LNG
markets.
With sailing times of less than 10 days to most of Asias import terminals, PNG has a large
advantage over nearly all other competing suppliers.
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Having established that PNG is one of the lowest cost countries in the world in which to
develop LNG, what is the cash flow profile for an LNG development, and most
importantly, what does that profile look like post start-up of the project?
Slide 36 shows an indicative cash flow for a two-train LNG development.
According to Wood Mackenzie, the ExxonMobil LNG project in PNG will be generating an
average of about $4 billion of gross cash flow per year in the coming years.
Using these metrics, a similar two-train project at Elk-Antelope could generate about $1
billion of cash-flow per year for InterOil.
And as this profile shows, depending on oil price, cash flow remains relatively constant
throughout the life of the project.
Once an LNG project ramps up to full capacity, subject to operational reliability, it
normally maintains that level of production throughout its life.
Another important issue is the impact an LNG project can have on your share price.
In this regard, the share price performance of Oil Search, which has 29 per cent of the
PNG LNG Project, may be instructive.
Oil Search was trading at just above $3 a share when engineering design work began on
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We have another busy year ahead of us as we continue to make material savings in the
unit costs associated with our core business activities.
And finally, Elk-Antelope is well placed as Papua New Guineas next LNG project with
attractive economics and a robust market to sell our gas into.
On that note, I will hand you back to Michael.
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Thank you.
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