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Mjadala unaoendelea kwenye vyombo mbalimbali vya habari, mitandaoni na
kwingineko kuhusu ripoti ya Utafiti wa kura ya maoni ya Twaweza kuhusu hali ya
siasa nchini Tanzania umeelemea kwenye hisia kwamba matokeo ya Utafiti huo
yana walakini. Makala hii inajibu hoja kuu tatu zinazobeba dukuduku hizo.
Hoja ya kwanza: Jumla ya asilimia sio 100 kamili.
Wanaokosoa Utafiti huo wanadai kuwa katika vielelezo kadhaa jumla ya asilimia
sio 100 kamili. Katika baadhi ya vielelezo hivyo, jumla ya asilimia ipo 99, 101 au
102
Hii imetokana tu na kuweka jumla inayokaribiana na namba kamili, au kwa
kimombo rounding the figures to the nearest whole number, kitu ambacho ni
cha kawaida katika tasnia ya Utafiti. Watafiti wa Twaweza wamefanya hivyo kwa
sababu kuweka tarakimu zikiwa na pointi za desimali moja au mbili
kunamaanisha kiwango cha uhakika wa matokeo kinaweza kutoa picha potofu.
Mifano ifuatavyo yaonyesha jumla isiyo karibu na namba kamili, kwa kimombo
unrounded figure, sambamba na jumla iliyo karibu na namba kamili (rounded
figure) kama ilivyowasilishwa kwenye matokeo ya Utafiti huo
round
ed
Sijui
5.14%
5%
Ndio
64.39% 64%
Hapana
30.47% 30%
Jumla
100.0
0%
99%
Kwa vielelezo 5b, 5c, 5d: Kielelezo 5b: Kama uchaguzi ungefanyika leo,
ungempigia kura mgombea wa chama gani? (Mbunge)/ Kielelezo 5c:
Kama uchaguzi ungefanyika leo, ungempigia kura mgombea wa chama
gani? (Diwani) / Kielelezo 5d: Je, unajisikia uko karibu na chama gani
zaidi??
Ukaribu
na
Mbunge
( Kielelezo 5b)
Diwani
chama (Kielelezo
(Kielelezo 5c)
5d)
unrou
nded
roun
ded
unrou
nded
rounde unrou
d
nded
rounde
d
CCM
60.4%
60%
59.9%
60%
61.9%
62%
Chadema
24.1%
24%
25.5%
26%
25.0%
25%
CUF
1.8%
2%
2.5%
3%
2.3%
2%
ACTWazalend
o
1.4%
1%
0.6%
1%
0.7%
1%
NCCR
Mageuzi
1.1%
1%
1.0%
1%
0.3%
0%
Ukawa*
2.8%
3%
2.6%
3%
2.1%
2%
Vyama
vingine
6.4%
6%
6.0%
6%
2.3%
2%
2.0%
2%
1.9%
2%
5.3%
5%
100.0
%
99%
100.0
%
102%
100.0
%
99%
Sijui
Hakuna
jibu
Jumla
Kwa kielelezo 6b: Je, Ukawa itaonekana katika karatasi ya kupigia kura
kama mojawapo ya vyama vya siasa siku ya uchaguzi wa mwaka 2015??
unrou
nded
round
ed
Sijui
17.6%
18%
Hapana
25.7%
26%
Ndio
56.7%
57%
Jumla
100.0
%
101%
201
201
2015
CCM
61%
47%
Chadema
30%
CUF
Unrou
nded
Roun
ded
51%
65.8%
66%
30%
23%
21.5%
22%
4%
4%
4%
0.5%
1%
ACT-Wazalendo
0%
0%
0%
0.2%
0%
NCCR Mageuzi
0%
1%
1%
0.2%
0%
Ukawa*
0%
0%
0%
3.3%
3%
Kingine
1%
2%
0%
6.3%
6%
4%
0%
4%
2.2%
2%
0%
15%
16%
0.0%
0%
Hakuna
0%
1%
1%
0.0%
0%
Jumla
100
%
100
%
100
%
100.0
%
100%
2015
2012
2013
2014
CCM
60%
44%
Chadema
31%
CUF
Unround
ed
Rounde
d
46%
60.4%
60%
31%
24%
24.1%
24%
4%
4%
4%
1.8%
2%
ACT-Wazalendo
0%
0%
0%
1.4%
1%
NCCR Mageuzi
0%
1%
1%
1.1%
1%
Ukawa*
0%
0%
0%
2.8%
3%
Kingine
0%
2%
1%
6.4%
6%
5%
0%
5%
2.0%
2%
0%
17%
18%
0.0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
0.0%
0%
Sipigii
kura
wagombea
Hakuna
vyama
bali
Jumla
100%
100%
100%
100.0%
99%
2015
2012
2013
2014
CCM
61%
45%
Chadema
29%
CUF
Unround
ed
Rounde
d
47%
59.9%
60%
30%
23%
25.5%
26%
4%
4%
4%
2.5%
3%
ACT-Wazalendo
0%
0%
0%
0.6%
1%
NCCR Mageuzi
0%
1%
1%
1.0%
1%
Ukawa*
0%
0%
0%
2.6%
3%
Kingine
1%
2%
1%
6.0%
6%
5%
0%
5%
1.9%
2%
0%
17%
18%
0.0%
0%
Hakuna
0%
1%
1%
0.0%
0%
Jumla
100%
100%
100%
100.0%
102%
Sipigii
kura
wagombea
vyama
bali
Kwa kielelezo 5d: Je, unajisikia uko karibu na chama gani zaidi??
201
2
201
3
201
4
CCM
65%
54%
Chadema
26%
CUF
2015
Unrou
nded
Roun
ded
54%
61.9%
62%
32%
27%
25.0%
25%
3%
4%
4%
2.3%
2%
ACT-Wazalendo
0%
0%
0%
0.7%
1%
NCCR Mageuzi
0%
1%
1%
0.3%
0%
Ukawa*
0%
0%
0%
2.1%
2%
Kingine
2%
1%
2%
2.3%
2%
na
chama
4%
0%
2%
5.3%
5%
0%
8%
10%
0.0%
0%
100
%
100
%
100
%
100.0
%
99%