The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted a talk on

Tuesday on Europe and Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, discussing the role

European countries have played, and would continue to play, in the
ongoing efforts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Three speakers participated: Bernard Hourcade, Senior Research
Fellow at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique in Paris and
an expert on Iranian politics, Shahram Chubin, Public Policy Scholar at
the Wilson Center, and Klaus Scharioth, German Ambassador to the
United States.

Hourcade began by pointing to a "race between democracy and the

bomb" taking place in Iran. In the presidential elections and their
aftermath, the people of Iran have showed they have democratic
values at their core. The linkage between the nuclear issue and politics
in Iran appears different at present since there is an active opposition.
In regards to the international community and its policies towards the
nuclear threat, it is clear that international sanctions and attempts to
promote "regime change" have failed.

The new US policy of engagement towards Iran has been positive; it

has weakened the Islamic regime. President Obama's outreach caused
division within the regime over how to respond, and it undermined one
of the regime's crucial pillars: the image of the United States as
archenemy. The people of Iran have accepted the new policy of
respect the Obama administration has pursued and it has also
invigorated the democratic forces within Iran. There has been a shift
from Islamism towards democratic nationalism in the Iranian society.
The political opposition is not yet organized enough to depose the
government, but there is a general social opposition that is headed
towards “globalization”. “One year of non-intervention, has been more
profitable than 30 years of embargo” Hourcade stressed. But he
warned the advancements are in their infant stages and could be
easily destroyed if the US policy of engagement is dropped.

Furthermore Hourcade insisted that Iranian society has knowledge of

globalization but has not experienced it. He insisted on the idea that
the embargo had isolated Iranian society from “western influence” had
a negative impact in the development of democratic values within
Iranians. Hourcade argued that the strongest sanction would be the
“removal of all sanctions”, hence giving the people of Iran the
possibility to “mix” with western companies and visitors. It would be
impossible for the regime to contain the influences and know-how that
such an influx would bring.

Chubin highlighted the organic relationship between the Europe and

the Middle East as a factor that played a role in the development of
European policy towards the region. The Middle East is contiguous with
Europe, and Europe has a large Muslim population. Therefore, Chubin
said, Middle Eastern issues are effectively domestic political issues for
Europe. Chubin stressed that Iranian hardliners strategy towards
Europe has so far been to play on the differences between Europe and
the US. The US and its European partners were often not all on the
same page. The Europeans tended to be more skeptical about whether
economic sanctions could be effective, and whether they could be
enforced. But if the US and Europe could agree on a sanctions-based
approach, (and get the agreement of the UN Security Council) Europe
could help increase the impact and legitimacy of those sanctions.
Chubin stressed that the Iranian issue is not a bilateral issue between
Washington and Tehran, it’s matter of importance to the international
community and it should be dealt with as such.

Ambassador Sharioth described Germany's involvement in negotiations

with Iran since the beginning of the dispute in 2003. During the first
two years, these talks had met with some success. The European
countries had been able to engage Iran in discussion over the
suspension of enrichment, reprocessing, and allowing IAEA inspectors
into the country in exchange for technology and development.
However, that is no longer the case, and Iran has restarted it’s
enrichment program. The issue is the underlying Iranian desire to
pursue “things beyond civil nuclear power and enrichment” Scharioth
stated. He stressed the engagement of European countries with Iran
was ignited by fear of an arms race in the middle east as a byproduct
of a nuclear Iran and also by the “Iranian democratic potential”. The
new US administration has followed the policy of direct engagement,
but without the direct support and involvement of China and Russia no
real impact can or will be made. Though the current sanctions are not
successful, Scharioth advocated for target sanctions, specifically on the
nuclear arms program and the Revolutionary Guard. Any sanctions that
hurt these two sectors are society will benefit the democratic
movement within the country. Also it is important to not isolate or
alienate the middle class, for that is where much of the reform
movement is located.
Germany is a very important country in terms of negotiation with Iran
because of it’s unique position as both a non-nuclear country and a
non-permanent member of the security council, and yet is still a
powerful country in it’s own right.

Scharioth also made clear that he believes no change can occur from
outside influences. Only a movement within will be credible enough to
succeed.