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CLEAN DISRUPTION
WHY CONVENTIONAL ENERGY AND
TRANSPORTATION WILL BE OBSOLETE BY
2030
PRESENTATION TO
!
!
Hong Kong, HK
"#$%&!'#(#&)#!
16 Sept 2015
!! %&'($)"vestors Forum *+,"-$.*#/0$1"$2*"3$4*"3$$
51.6$/$7*89-$*"$3:*;/:$1"-./;1:1.0$/"#$Chinas new normal$
$
"#$
Tony Seba
#$%&"#$%%Monday 14 September 2015: CLSA Limited (CLSA), Asias leading and longest'
www.tonyseba.com
ning brokerage and investment group opens today the 22nd CLSA Investors Forum, one
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e 22nd CLSA Investors Forum provides more than 1400 global fund managers and 230
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A Stroll down
Memory Lane
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realities of excess capacity in a more mature domestic economy, Slone said. %
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$%&'(#)%'"*+(+,"#-, CLSAs Head of China'!&%C).-)+$7%N.-#51/%Aheung looks at why Chinas
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um delegates will hear from more than 40 CLSA analysts on Chinas banking, energy,
1900:
Where
is THE
?
CAR?
1913:
Where is
THE
HORSE?
2
Technology-based
Disruption
Rodin Thinker -
What is a Disruption?
A disruption happens when a new
product or service helps
! significantly weaken,
! transform, or
3
1985
Image Source: GMAuthority.com
900,000 subscribers.
! The
109 million
! They were off by a factor
of 120x
Leading
Clean
Market
DisruptionDisruptionCopyright
Copyright
2001-2015
2001-2015
by Tony
by Tony
Seba
Seba
4
Actual
Subscribers
109,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
Forecast
5
Rodin Thinker -
6
Exponential
Technologies
If the rate of change on the outside is greater than the rate
of change on the inside, the end is near.
- Jack Welch
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
Logarithmic Scale
1 billion X
Source: Wikipedia
7
!!Technologies improving
at exponential rates.
!! Data Storage Kryders Law
!! Hard Disk $ cost per bit down
50%
every 18 months.
/ year
Logarithmic Scale
Source: Wikipedia
8
1.!Solar
2.!Energy Storage
3.!Electric Vehicles
4.!Self-Driving Cars
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
1. THE SOLAR
DISRUPTION
If you evaluated rooftop solar a year ago, or even three
months ago, you are way out of date.
- David Crane, CEO, NRG Energy
9
$100/W
50/W
200x
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
185,356
160,000
141,156
140,000
120,000
102,156
100,000
80,000
71,061
60,000
40,670
40,000
20,000
6,946 9,521
1,400 1,765 2,235 2,820 3,952 5,364
16,229
23,605
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10
Rodin Thinker -
11
!"#$%&'"!(&(%)*+!&
,!&&
'"*,)*(-"*$#&)*)%./&
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
Since 1970 Prices for conventional resourcebased energy sources are up 6X 16X
Oil
Nat Gas
Nuclear
Coal
12
Times
improvement
(1970-2015)
Petroleum
3,165x
Nuclear
2,600x
Natural Gas
2,965x
Coal
1,164x
Oil at $50/bbl
01!-*)!!&2&3-*$*'-$#&
4"+)#&-**",$(-"*&
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
13
all growth in
residential solar
Cash
3rd-party
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14
25/W
! Solar PV costs down 400X from 1970-2020
! Citi: installed cost of Residential solar ~$1.12/W by 2020
! Installed cost is already <$1.4/W in Australia. (2)
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
15
Times
Times
improvement improvement
(1970-2020)
(1970-2015)
Petroleum
Nuclear
3,165x
2,600x
6,329x
5,200x
Natural Gas
2,965x
5,911x
Coal
1,164x
2,329x
Rodin Thinker -
16
Percentage
Color TV
80
Installed base
Consumer Adoptions 2008
60
40
Price
20
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Time
Source: Technology
Inc.
! Solar PV is a technology. Tech adoption
is not Futures,
linear
but follows an S-Curve.
Figure 4 US Color Television Adoption
Graph Source: Technology Futures, Inc
4)
Perhaps we should
the problems likely
turned out, in 1993,
vidual proposals for
to form a Grand A
the new system beg
second HDTV stud
standards approval
in 1997, and 1 % pe
and a half later than
before final approva
vened, demanding p
scanning. The resul
promise was reache
of scanning, the FC
December 24, 1996
Lawrence K. Vanston, Curt Rogers, and Ray L. Hodges, Advanced Video Services: Analysis and
Providers, Technology Futures, Inc., 1995.
182
Image: RedOrbit.com
17
4-5
4-5/kWh
/kWh
Rodin Thinker -
18
Utility Scale?
Rodin Thinker -
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OY! *,&);89<J&!65B9&II$&HZ&[YN\&S2TU>&RX*&'Y3DS&VLX&
VOX&
! !BFE:&$9BQ:B&II$&^Y_&2TU>&VF;@FQX&R6*C'Y3DS'V[X&
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19
2. ENERGY
STORAGE
While there are many kinds of stories, there's only
one plot: things are not as they seem.
- Jim Thompson, film-maker
20
Photo: Wirkipedia
Photo: Telegraph.uk
$200/kWh
$100/kWh
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
$-
Assumptions: 16%/year
cost improvement
'58B;&+:@9FCD6;H&'6CJ9:<>=&K&LMMOHLMOP&QJ&(6;J&!8QB&
21
year
Double world battery production
Tesla Gigafactory!
!
cars/
New Local
Renewables !
Solar and Wind!
500,000/yr
35 GWh/yr!
50 GWh/yr!
Up to 10M ft2!
w/ 1-2 levels!
500-1000
6,500
Rendering!
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
Source: Tesla
!
!
!
$800+
million in
orders /
reservations
first week!
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
Image: Tesla,
22
(1)
! Foxconn and LG
Chem could add
combined 22 GWh
(2)
)*)%./&!("%$.)&
01!-*)!!&4"+)#&
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23
Image: Stem
! Stem and GreenCharge Networks offering storage-asservice to reduce DEMAND CHARGES for businesses
! Zero-money down, 10 years
! Lower utility bills by 10-50% (1)
! Similar business model that made solar skyrocket
(1) Source: Bloomberg
!=69B<8&+:@9FCD6;&]&%8@:E8;DB5&B;E&'6``89?:B5&
! 60,2$C,'6-,2"%$#'%.#+*-,+'Z[;'\]K(-.#AK'?^'_';[\]K(/$B'
! EB'9[9['"A'H"&&'%.+A'a[bYN2`6;=>'RaOYL2EBJS'`.2'$'
`*&&'/$B'.`',&,%A2"%"AB'+A.2$C,&
Monthly Cost of
Residential Storage
$600
2014
$500
$300
2020
2024
2028
$200
$100
$50
$1.5
$0.8
$0.4
Demand Response
1.25
$4.6
$3.8
$2.3
$18.4
$15.3
$9.2
$6.1
$3.1
$1.5
10
$36.8
$30.7
$18.4
$12.3
$6.1
$3.1
Self-sufficiency
16
20
$73.6
$61.3
$36.8
$24.5
$12.3
$6.1
Off-grid
24
30
$110.4
$92.0
$55.2 $ 36.8
$18.4
$9.2
:.*2%,T'=&,$#'a"+2*@1.#'
24
Consumer Reports:
(1)
Best-selling high-end
large luxury car in
America!
(2)
25
Is the Electric
Vehicle
Disruptive?
(You always need to ask)
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
26
40
70
20
Energy Efficiency
80
10
90
0
50
60
30
17%-21%
40
50
100
60
30
70
20
80
10
90
100
Electric Motor
90%-95%
Energy Efficiency
$1,565 in electricity.
Improvements in
power electronics
will increase 10X.
Assumptions:
!
12,000 miles/year
!
Tesla Roadster: 4.6 miles per kWh.
!
Ave retail electricity in the U.S.: 12 /kWh
!
5 year-cost = (60,000 miles * 0.12 $/kWh) / 4.6 miles/kWh = $1,565.
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
Image: Jeep.com
Source: Tesla
27
(1)
18 moving parts
(1)
(2)
28
EV Torque
ICE Torque
Price
Medium $$
Buick Enclave
Tesla Model X
Low $
Copyright 2009-2015 by Tony Seba
High
Performance
EVs: Porsche performance for Buick prices!
Low
29
Ok, so the EV is
DISRUPTIVE.
How long will the transition
take?
$70,000
$60,000
gas "Affordable
SUV": $35-$40K
Ave gas Car
cost in US: $31K
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$-
30
ComputerWorld
Sept 4, 2014
4 - The Autonomous
Vehicle Disruption
Photo Wikipedia
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
31
Financial Times
May 5, 2015
Reuters
Video: WSJ
June 3, 2014
32
Oct 2, 2014
TheVerge
33
GraphicPopular Science
34
Exponential Technologies:
Machine Vision LIDAR Sensors
"! In 2012 Google announced that the cost of technology in its
self-driving car was ~$150k.
"! LIDAR Sensor (for Machine Vision) was
$70k in 2012
! By the end of
2013, the next-gen
LIDAR was: $10k
! By Oct 2014, a SV
startup company
announced LIDAR
for $1k
Graphic Source Wikipedia
$1,000
!! 2015 LIDAR: ~
8 Patents
Pending
!! Gen 2 (solid state):
$250
June 9, 2015
$90
Source Quanergy
35
Image: ExtremeTech
million
Source Wikipedia
36
Exponential Technologies:
GPU: NVIDIA Drive PX
!! Dual Tegra X1 GPU Processor
!! 2.3 TeraFlops
!! Power Consumption =
15 W
#!56,666X improvement
#! Cost =
$59
Rodin Thinker -
37
Cool! I can
and also
while NOT driving!
disruptive
impact?
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
Rodin Thinker -
38
01!-*)!!&4"+)#&
-**",$(-"*&
'58B;&+:@9FCD6;H&'6CJ9:<>=&K&LMMOHLMOP&QJ&(6;J&!8QB&
My Smartphone On-Demand
Transportation
Plan & schedule ALL transportation
needs with Apps
1.! Buses: NextBus
2.! Trains: CaltrainMe, iBART
3.!Car-Sharing: Zipcar
4.!Ride-Sharing: Uber, Lyft
5.! Parking: PayByPhone
6.! EV Charging: ChargePoint
Photos:
Tony
Seba
Image 2015
by Tony
Seba
39
CAR- Sharing
Zipcar:
!! On-demand individual transportation
!! By the hour, by the day
!!Share-to-own ratio: 15
On-Demand Mobility:
changing the concept of
"Car Ownership"
!!while reducing the need for
new cars
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
RIDE- Sharing
Companies disrupting private and public
transportation.
"! =.##,%1#C'*+,2+'H"AK'/2"0,2+'
"! >bT'c),2d'8Be'
(4) Wikipedia
40
cars are
parked 96% of
But
the time!
(1)
! 4% Asset Utilization is a
disruption waiting to happen!
Photo: Tony Seba
Leading Market Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
!)#3H+%-,-*.&W&'$%!c$%-*.d&
'"*,)%.)*')&"3&
()'c*"#"./&e&01!-*)!!&
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41
Feb 2, 2015
The Verge
vehicles."
car ownership
goes away." said Uber's
then
CEO
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
car
ownership (in the
city) obsolete
Image: Fool.com
(1) Guardian
42
1.!Car-as-a-service (CarSharing +
Self-Driving Vehicles) will make
Individual Car Ownership Obsolete
2.! New Car Market to shrink by ~80%.
! Disruption of Auto industry
! Disruption of Car insurance industry
3.!~80% parking space not needed
! Citiscape to be re-designed
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
!144$%/&
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
43
2015:
we
are
HERE
1.!
2.!
3.!
4.!
Solar
Energy Storage
Electric Vehicles
Self-Driving Vehicles
44
This disruption is
not in the future.
It is NOW!
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
45
(c$*f!g&
'
!
!
"#$%&!'#(#&)#!
www.tonyseba.com
CLEAN DISRUPTION
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2030
!
!
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#$%&"#$%%Monday 14 September 2015: CLSA Limited (CLSA), Asias leading and longest'
Tony Seba
www.tonyseba.com
ning brokerage and investment group opens today the 22nd CLSA Investors Forum, one
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Clean Disruption
- Copyright
Tony Seba
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46