Analysts:

Nilesh Gandhi
Rajiv Bharati
Varsha Jajal

September 14, 2015

Why DM-50?

We believe the recent volatility in the market demands more caution for emerging markets, which could
feel pressurized in the event of any sudden outflow of capital. The immediate looming trigger for this is
the anticipated rate hike by Federal Reserve in U.S.

We have prepared a list of 50 stocks, namely DM-50, based on five broad themes






companies which are having excellent earnings visibility may be considered for investors
looking to weather any sudden bout like Aug 24
companies which are having a trigger event in play or anticipated, could be accumulated at more
attractive levels in case of correction
companies which are dependent on economic recovery, infrastructure spending and capex cycle
pick up
companies which are critically players in supply chain and have displayed leadership in efficiency
improvement
and finally companies participating in rapidly changing technology intensive e-commerce sector
who have displayed network effect working in their favor

We also believe the much talked about Fed rate hike after 2006 is a long drawn process and not an event
and any sharp correction presents an opportunity to build or strengthen your portfolio further.

2
September 14, 2015

Leadership in respective operational areas provides earning

visibility

The companies possess strong moat in their area of business and are witnessing secular growth trend
owing to:

rising disposable income further supported by real positive interest rates

shift in consumption pattern from unbranded to branded products

acceptability of premium brands in respective category

rising awareness to healthy eating habits

regular requirement of third party certification such as credit rating required for doing business

rising demand for affordable housing

Also, brands in their kitty provide the comfort of sustained earnings growth over the next two to three
years.

Due to strong support from parents R&D, these companies have been able to launch products which are
technically superior, aiding them to earn superior margins.

Fall in prices of crude and its derivatives have been a boon for some of these companies as these
commodities form major portion of their raw material cost.

3
September 14, 2015

Stock with earning visibility

Company
Asian Paints

Bayer Cropscience

Bosch

Britannia
Cipla

Colgate Palmolive
CRISIL
Dabur
Gillette India

Comments
 Leader in decorative paints
 Fall in prices of crude and its derivatives should enhance margin or free up cash for more ad
spent
 Leader in agrochemical space
 Strong support from parents R&D
 Healthy product pipeline for next couple of years
 Major player in fuel injection space
 Strong support from parents R&D
 Ready product portfolio for up-gradation of emission norms
 Leader in cookies segment
 Recent launches are focused on healthy eating habits
 Strong domestic distribution network
 Strong player in respiratory therapy
 New acquisitions creating future growth opportunities
 Leader in Oral care space
 Secular trend of shift in consumption from tooth powder to tooth paste
 Strong player in credit rating business






Consumption pattern is shifting from unbranded to branded products

Awareness about healthcare products is increasing
Leadership in Men's shaving blades and instruments
Product portfolio across the price points
Strong support from parents R&D
Continued

September 14, 2015

Stock with earning visibility

Company
Glaxosmithkline
Pharmaceuticals
Gruh Finance
HDFC
HDFC Bank
Hindustan Unilever Ltd
ICRA
ITC

Jubilant Foodworks

Jyothy Laboratories

Marico

Comments
 Massive capex done in recent past
 Expected to launch various products from parents
 Beneficiary of rising demand for affordable housing
 Strong Player in low ticket housing finance
 Leading NBFC in the country with healthy NIMs
 Secular base of CASA deposits aiding to lower cost of deposits
 Leader in FMCG industry
 Strong support from parents R&D
 Strong player in credit rating business
 Leader in cigarette business
 Emerging player in Processed Foods space
 Diversified business model in Agri, FMCG, Hotels , Paper & Paperboard areas
 Leader in pizza delivery space
 Aggressive expansion plans
 Recovery in same store sales growth offers the comfort of earnings recovery
 Leader in fabric whitener space
 Henkels portfolio re-launch to pay-off in next couple of years
 Fall in prices of crude and its derivatives should enhance margin or free up cash for more ad
spent
 Leader in coconut, premium edible oil space
 Improvement in supply chain to lead further growth
 Saffola Oats emerging as winner in the product portfolio
Continued

September 14, 2015

Stock with earning visibility

Company
Maruti Suzuki India
Merck
Nestle India
Pfizer
Pidilite Industries

Repco Home Finance

Sanofi India

Wabco India

Comments
 Leader in passenger car space
 Automated manual transmission (AMT) at affordable price point driving future volumes
 Leader in Vitamin E manufacturing used for skin care products
 Strong support from parents R&D
 Leader in processed food space
 Maggie issue is likely to end
 Strong support from parents R&D
 Strong brands in Respiratory, Gastro-Intestinal and Nutraceuticals space
 Leader in adhesives and sealant space with strong brands like Fevicol, M-Seal and Fevikwik
 Fall in prices of crude and its derivatives should enhance margin or free up cash for more ad
spent
 Beneficiary of rising demand for affordable housing
 Strong Player in low ticket housing finance
 Strong support from parents R&D
 Strong player in diabetic and cardiovascular therapeutic areas
 Shift in demand from acute therapies to chronic is good for companys products
 Leader in air brake technology space
 Strong support from parents R&D
 Low cost manufacturing hub for parent
 Mandatory implementation of Anti-lock Braking System (ABS) to drive next phase of growth

6
September 14, 2015

Stock with catalyst or triggers

In this group we have picked stocks based on imminent or long term trigger which are expected to
transform the current structure of the company/industry.

These triggers range from



management change

business restructuring

pending policy decision which could stimulate the current low profit zone of the company

revived focus of management on strengthening distribution

policy changes like government hiking the FDI limit in insurance

We believe although the trigger itself is a binary event but the time it would take for the changes to
reflect in the numbers would be reasonably long drawn and we would see the value unlock over the
period of 2-3 fiscals.

7
September 14, 2015

Stock with catalyst or triggers

Company
Agro Tech Foods

Crompton Greaves

IDFC

Comments
 Strong parent in ConAgra Foods Inc having a slew of products in its portfolio which can be
brought in India going forward
 Plant capex for 6 out of 7 plants is over. Company has successfully built two non oil brands
(Act-II and Sundrop Peanut Butter) behind which they plan to invest heavily
 ~41% market in premium refined oil category helps them have steady cash flow without
much investment
 Company plans to drastically ramp up distribution reach
 Company is selling its consumer business to Advent International which will make an open
offer eventually
 We believe subtracting the private market valuation of consumer business presents an
excellent opportunity to buy the rest of the business at a significant discount




Secured banking license last year which will be operational within the next month or so.
Relaxation in CRR, SLR, PSL requirement. Govt and RBI keeping banks under tight leash.
Credit off take is yet to pick up.
Strong infra book.

Continued

September 14, 2015

Stock with catalyst or triggers

Company
Kokuyo Camlin

Kotak Mahindra
Shanthi Gears

Comments
 There is a change of guard in the company as the old promoters, the Dandekar Family,
make way for international giant Kokuyo to expand the business further.
 Stationary is highly unorganized space, only a few companies present in organized space
 Strong brand recall Camlin
 Setting up capacity which centrally supply products throughout the country
 Launched staple less stapler and notebooks
 Exited non-core preschool business
 Company has recently acquired ING Vysya Bank (ING), significant synergy benefits after that
lower operational cost; CASA uptick in INGs book; and better quality growth in INGs book.
 Non-standard / Non Autogear space is high margin business and needs technology
investment
 Post management change, the company is getting back client orders which are increasing
QoQ
 Margins are expected to increase as capacity utilization increases in coming quarters.

Continued

September 14, 2015

Stock with catalyst or triggers

Company
Torrent Power

Tube Investments

TV18 Broadcast

Comments
 Gas based power plant of the company are being utilized at marginal levels. Any positive
development in improvement in gas supplies going forward will kickoff companies low
profit zone, which is currently getting discounted completely.
 Excellent track record in bringing efficiency and discipline in its power distribution business
as well.
 All three core business -cycles, engineering, and metal formed products- are witnessing
improvement in outlook.
 Premiumization trend is picking up in its legacy cycles business.
 FDI in insurance is a huge boost for its non-core business
 NBFC business improving with recovery in commercial vehicle industry
 Change in management
 Digitization to be completed by Dec 2016, hence the subscription revenue would pick up.
International distribution is increasingly becoming focus area
 Debt is reducing and the incremental saving in interest cost is percolating to bottom line.
 Superior content, Channels Rank 1 or 2 in their pack
 New channel launched in English GEC
 Re-branding of ETV channels under Colors brand

10
September 14, 2015

Infrastructure spending led pick up in Capex cycle

In this group we have picked stocks which are largely dependent on revival in order placement in
infrastructure space. We have also included a few industrial consumable plays which are currently facing
reduction in demand due to their customer cutting back on inventories, due to working capital pressure.
We believe this could incrementally get addressed as RBI cuts rates further.
Company
3M India

AIA Engineering

Ashok Leyland

Cummins India

Comments
 3M Indias parent is increasing its investment in the local unit to make it a global sourcing hub
 Management has restructured its 55,000 products range to sieve of low margin products
 Distribution is strengthened with introduction of -ecommerce channel for premium products in
select few cities
 Leading manufacturer in oligopolistic market. Ideally placed to capture the migration from forged
grinding media to high-chrome grinding media.
 Its an excellent proxy for playing on revival on mining activity and improvement in commodity prices
 Leading player in MHCV space.
 Past restructuring efforts are benefiting now
 Capex cycle revival has been boosting sales growth




Revival in domestic CV business. Management has also made inroads into LHP segment, which was
not a focus segment earlier.
Parent, Cummins Inc, has sharply improved the guidance in its India business in contrast to sharp
cut in its China and Brazilian business outlook.
Management has improved the export guidance from its earlier subdued guidance

Continued

11

September 14, 2015

Infrastructure spending led pick up in Capex cycle

Company
ABB India, Alstom
T&D, Siemens India

Comments
 Power requirement is only going to grow going forward. Losses in the transmission side needs to
be curbed using advanced systems. Railways up gradation is a priority on govts agenda. Make
in India will give preference to companies with manufacturing in India.
 India moving from sub-critical to supercritical power gen technology, hence interregional load
carrying capacity needs improvement. Hence, incremental investment in 765 kv is increasing in
each 5 yr plan. Industrial segment (Automation Products, Process automation) will pick up as
corporates feel confident about demand and govt. support and their own balance sheet allows.
 GIS capabilities are more in demand. HVDC transmission is gaining ground. Automation of
power grids and deployment of SCADA systems.
 Rail automation and electrification, traction equipments, locomotive trains are going to drive
demand.
 Additionally, current transmission network cannot handle the feed from renewable hence
stabilizing equipments have to be installed at various nodes.
 In 765 kv there are only 4 players in India Siemens, ABB, Alstom and CG, hence they command
much better pricing.
 Strong parentage helps them to have a head start in bringing the technology and indigenizing it.
 Cyclical companies typically seem pricy at the beginning of favourable cycles. Order inflow would
soon improve earnings and valuation would look normal.

Continued

12

September 14, 2015

Infrastructure spending led pick up in Capex cycle

Company
Ingersoll Rand (IR)

KNR Construction

Larsen & Toubro

Comments
 Construction, mining, exploration and engineering sector will have to do well if the
economic activity has to pick up. On the infra side roads/railways will continue remain
priority for upcoming five yr plans.
 Strong track record in the main air compressor business.
 Strong parentage
 Construction, mining, exploration and engineering sector expected to do well if the
economic activity has to pick up. On the infra side roads/railways will continue remain
priority for upcoming five yr plans.
 KNR is relatively very healthy EPC player in road space and has healthy order book
 Envious execution record, securing bonuses for early completion in several projects
 Light balance sheet with low D/E and very low debtor days



One of the best plays in infrastructure space with presence across various segment
Strong execution capability and fairly healthy balance sheet

13
September 14, 2015

Efficiency Improvement

In this group we have picked stocks based on their criticality in the supply chain.

The suitability of these players stems from the moats they have developed over the years


Asset heavy model which nobody else seem to have successfully replicated over the years

Strong parentage, technological superiority (e.g. seamless visibility of cargo)

Market leadership and abundant demand

We believe logistics in general will get boost from the implementation of GST and some of the larger
players will emerge from eventual consolidation
Company
Snowman Logistics

Blue Dart Express

Comments
 Provides excellent early stage investing opportunity in a niche logistics player
 Parent company Gateway Distriparks has shown wonderful execution skills over the years
 Value added business will incrementally lift margins as the deployed assets gain vintage
 Enviable network strength and reach.
 Technologically superior solutions and a very strong parentage
 Market leader in express distribution services

14
September 14, 2015

New age businesses with network effect

In this group we have picked stocks to gain access to the technology driven service players. We believe
this is a rapidly changing space and a leader would eventually emerge in a few years in each of their
winner-take-all market. Nimbleness displayed by these companies to combat new competition from
well funded players over the years is commendable and that gives us further comfort.
Company
Just Dial

Info Edge

Comments
 Lead generation in a business has traditionally remained a challenge across business.
Intensified competition faced by small businesses (Kirana/doctors/restaurants) from newer
startups. App based solutions are catching up. Location based filtering. Local search is an
evolving market. Only 11 states are covered till now. Used extensively for lead generation.
 ERP solution for the kirana store could be a game changer
 Market leader, crowd sourced database
 Much awaited Search-Plus service is launched
 Info Edge gives you option to invest in a VC with lots of interesting concepts in the investee
companies.
 Job Market has picked up substantially (esp on the BFSI, IT/BPO side). 99acres is stabilizing.
 Highest resume count in India. Profit contribution from 99acres is increasing. They own
stake in some of the popular ventures like Zomato, Meritnation. Shiksha, Jeevansathi,
Canverra Tech, Happily Unmarried, Policy Bazaar.

15
September 14, 2015

DM-50 : Financial summary

Sr. No. Company Name

1

CMP

Market Cap
(Rs. Mn)

TTM Revenue
(Rs. Mn)

TTM EBIDTA
Margin
12%

TTM PAT
Margin
7%

TTM ROE

3M India Ltd.

10,919

122,998

18,647

15%

ABB India Ltd.

1,150

243,737

77,178

8%

3%

8%

Agro Tech Foods Ltd.

600

14,614

7,586

8%

5%

12%

TTM EPS
108.7

TTM P/B

TTM P/E

Target

15.2

100.5

13,500

11.4

8.4

101.2

1,725

15.0

4.7

40.0

800

AIA Engineering Ltd.

962

90,717

21,495

28%

20%

21%

46.5

4.4

20.7

1,200

Alstom T&D India Ltd.

531

135,910

38,272

8%

3%

9%

4.4

10.4

121.7

650

Ashok Leyland Ltd.

Asian Paints Ltd.

88

249,583

146,518

9%

4%

12%

1.9

5.5

46.0

110

816

782,849

142,579

17%

11%

33%

16.1

16.5

50.6

1,050

Bayer CropScience Ltd.

3,756

137,526

38,142

13%

10%

19%

104.2

6.8

36.1

4,600

Blue Dart Express Ltd.

6,985

165,742

23,611

10%

6%

45%

58.3

53.9

119.9

8,400

10

Bosch Ltd.

21,932

688,628

96,692

17%

11%

14%

333.9

9.4

65.7

28,000

11

Britannia Industries Ltd.

2,954

354,391

80,050

12%

10%

61%

63.7

28.5

46.4

3,700

12

Cipla Ltd.

653

524,539

120,120

22%

13%

15%

19.8

4.9

33.0

900

13

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd.

1,848

251,328

40,070

21%

13%

70%

39.6

32.6

46.7

2,375

14

CRISIL Ltd.

1,833

130,987

12,760

29%

21%

28%

36.8

14.0

49.8

2,200

15

Crompton Greaves Ltd.

16

Cummins India Ltd.

17

Dabur India Ltd.

166

104,259

137,374

4%

1%

4%

2.5

2.7

66.6

240

1,109

307,373

45,709

17%

17%

27%

28.3

10.6

39.2

1,550

282

495,072

80,066

17%

14%

33%

6.4

14.8

44.2

350

18

Gillette India Ltd.

4,732

154,190

19,706

10%

8%

21%

48.5

20.8

97.5

5,800

19

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd.

3,334

282,379

26,205

20%

14%

20%

43.7

15.4

76.3

4,400

20

Gruh Finance Ltd.

21

HDFC Bank Ltd.

237

86,201

11,282

91%

20%

32%

6.3

12.1

37.9

300

1,011

2,537,829

512,909

17%

21%

16%

42.5

3.9

23.8

1,285

22

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

795

1,720,772

305,731

18%

14%

107%

20.0

42.8

39.9

970

23

HDFC

1,176

1,853,964

339,578

88%

21%

16%

45.7

4.1

25.7

1,430

24

ICRA Ltd.

4,066

40,663

3,286

28%

18%

14%

60.3

9.5

67.5

5,000

25

IDFC Ltd.

129

205,441

97,329

82%

16%

9%

9.6

1.2

13.4

180

Holding Period : 12-15 months

Continued

16

September 14, 2015

DM-50 : Financial summary

Sr. No. Company Name

CMP

Market Cap
(Rs. Mn)

TTM Revenue
(Rs. Mn)

TTM EBIDTA
Margin

92,239

6,382

25%

26

Info Edge (India) Ltd.

766

27

Ingersoll-Rand (India) Ltd.

746

23,543

6,415

6%

28

ITC Ltd.

314

2,514,869

354,243

38%

29

Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd.

1,632

107,144

21,679

13%

30

Just Dial Ltd.

817

57,568

6,267

29%

31

Jyothy Laboratories Ltd.

307

55,629

15,342

11%

32

KNR Construction Ltd.

514

14,450

8,142

33

Kokuyo Camlin Ltd.

101

10,081

5,694

34

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.

631

576,231

35

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

1,603

1,491,223

36

Marico Ltd.

37

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.

38

Merck Ltd.

746

12,391

39

Nestle India Ltd.

6,001

578,615

40

Pfizer Ltd.

2,297

105,071

41

Pidilite Industries Ltd.

567

42

Repco Home Finance Ltd.

664

43

Sanofi India Ltd.

44

Shanthi Gears Ltd.

45

Siemens Ltd.

46

Snowman Logistics Ltd.

47

TTM PAT
Margin
29%

TTM ROE

TTM EPS

TTM P/B

TTM P/E

Target

13%

15.2

6.5

50.5

1,000

9%

6%

19.3

2.5

38.7

925

27%

31%

12.1

7.9

26.0

375

6%

19%

19.0

16.6

85.7

2,050

23%

21%

20.4

8.5

40.0

1,200

8%

16%

6.8

7.1

45.2

370

15%

8%

9%

24.3

1.8

21.2

650

4%

1%

3%

0.6

4.7

165.3

140

151,254

-19%

19%

13%

31.6

2.6

20.0

780

932,820

12%

5%

11%

49.4

3.6

32.4

1,950

405

261,485

58,825

16%

11%

35%

9.9

14.3

41.1

500

4,318

1,304,306

506,103

15%

8%

17%

137.1

5.4

31.5

5,300

8,431

8%

5%

8%

27.2

2.1

27.4

900

95,145

21%

9%

31%

92.7

19.9

64.8

7,450

16,695

21%

6%

5%

22.5

5.3

102.0

2,800

290,705

49,445

18%

11%

25%

11.1

12.8

51.3

680

41,397

7,120

93%

19%

16%

21.3

5.1

31.2

820

3,925

90,396

19,425

19%

15%

18%

123.0

5.8

31.9

4,900

92

7,506

1,550

13%

6%

3%

1.1

2.8

80.3

130

1,276

454,445

101,630

9%

14%

27%

39.3

8.8

32.4

1,600

99

16,614

2,126

22%

13%

7%

1.7

4.0

59.5

130

Torrent Power Ltd.

153

72,379

103,263

24%

4%

7%

9.5

1.1

16.1

190

48

Tube Investments Of India Ltd.

398

74,508

93,292

14%

7%

25%

37.2

2.6

10.7

490

49

TV18 Broadcast Ltd.

32

54,174

23,873

10%

7%

5%

1.0

1.6

32.8

45

50

Wabco India Ltd.

6,996

132,699

13,309

17%

10%

16%

72.5

15.4

96.5

8,500

Holding Period : 12-15 months

17
September 14, 2015

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September 14, 2015