A Conversation About the Housing

Needs of Montgomery Countys Current

and Future Residents

Lisa Sturtevant, PhD

Vice President for Research, National Housing Conference
Executive Director, Center for Housing Policy

January 30, 2014

The Conversation
Selected current housing conditions
Future housing needs
The intersection of housing & transportation

Selected Current Housing

Conditions

Households Paying 30%+ of

Income on Housing Costs

Source: 2012 ACS, 3-year file

Housing Built Before 1960

Source: 2012 ACS, 3-year file

Homeownership Rate

Source: 2012 ACS, 3-year file

Workers that Take Transit or Walk

by Household Income

Source: 2012 ACS, 3-year file

Future Housing Needs

Job Growth Will Drive Housing

Demand

D.C.
Sub. MD
Montgomery Co.
No. VA
DC Region*

Net New
Jobs
% Change
2012-2032
148,500
19.8%
254,800
26.4%
129,619
27.1%
448,700
32.5%
857,300
27.6%

*Includes Jefferson, WV
Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for
Regional Analysis.

Housing Demand All Workers Live in

the Jurisdiction in Which They Work

D.C.
Sub. MD
Montgomery Co.
No. VA
DC Region*

Net New Housing

Units Needed
2012-2032
105,200
160,800
83,829
279,000
548,300

*Includes Jefferson, WV
Note: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work
Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for
Regional Analysis.

Housing Needs Depend on

Characteristics and Incomes of
Workers

D.C.
Sub. MD
Montgomery Co.
No. VA
DC Region*

Total
Units
105,200
160,800
83,800
279,000
548,300

SingleFamily
38,000
106,600
51,300
197,600
344,600

MultiFamily
67,200
54,200
32,500
81,400
203,700

*Includes Jefferson, WV
Note: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work
Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for
Regional Analysis.

Building Permit Activity Historic Rate

Insufficient to Meet Future Needs

Need
20-yr
avg

Source: U.S Census Bureau

Intersection of Housing &

Transportation

Planning for (Affordable) Housing

Near Transportation

Benefits to

Workers and Families

Local Businesses
Local Communities

Figure1.WhenWorkersAreNotAbletoLiveClosetoWork

Familywellbeing
suffers
Theyspendless
onfamily
necessities

Workershave
longercommutes

Theyspendmore
ontransportation

Theyhaveless
disposable
income

Thelocal
economysuffers

Countyreceives
lesstaxrevenue

Theyspendless
onluxuries

Theyarrivelate
toandleave
earlyfromwork

Their
productivity
suffers

Theylookfor
workcloserto
home

Businessesmust
recruitnew
workers

Thereismore
trafficonthe
roads

Traffic
congestionand
pollution
increase

Thereisless
transitridership

Transitagencies
loserevenue

Businesseslose
revenueorgrow
moreslowly
Theregions
economygrows
moreslowly

Movement
aroundthe
regionismore
difficult

Transitservices
maybereduced

http://www.locationaffordability.info/

Resources
www.nhc.org/publications

http://www.housingpolicy.org/toolbox/sustainable_development.html

Lisa Sturtevant
202-466-2121 ext. 234
Lsturtevant@nhc.org