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Cellular networks on the road to 5G: just more lanes or a junction?

Dr. Ir. Michael Peeters, CTO Wireless

20150609 Big Telecom Event, ATIS 5G Symposium, Chicago


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In practice, technology had 30 years of evolution and disruption


1990
1995
Year in commercial service

GSM

2000

2005

2010

Single carrier
TD-SCDMA

GPRS

2015

2020

TD-SCDMA

EDGE

E-GPRS2
CIoT?

WCDMA
PDC

HSDPA/
HSUPA

HSPA

HSPA
evol

TD-LTE
TDMA

LTE-FDD
CDMA

2G

1X

3G
FDD

4G
5G

Smooth evolution

EV-DO
rev 0

EV-DO
rev A

LTE-adv
LTE-adv

EV-DO
rev B
UMB

EV-DV

Agreed disruption
TDD

Disruptive disruption

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WiMAX
16d

WiMAX
16e

WiMAX
16m

5G
5G ?

Just more of everything?

3.9Bn

720%

People connected
to the Internet
in 2017

Increase in
video traffic
20122017

More tablets sold in


2014 than laptops and
desktop computers
combined

Enterprise networking
market revenue in
2017 (US $)

10Bn

440%

2.3X

2X

Things connected
to the Internet
in 2020

Increase in cloud
and data center
traffic 20122017

Increase in mobile
broadband speed by
2019

Increase in cloud
computing market
20132017

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320M

>50Bn

+ 4G/LTE addressing new markets


Fixed Wireless Access

Public Sectors

Public Safety/Defense/Govt

MOBILE BB
DIVERSIFICATION

Energy

Utilities/Oil & Gaz

Transportation

Railways/Highways/Aviation

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Internet of Things

9 Key use cases @NGMN


Use case family

Example use case

Key technical requirement

Broadband in dense
areas

Pervasive video

Massive spectrum on small cell pushing need for new high band to achieve
traffic density of up to 750 Gb/s per km2 in dense urban

Broadband
everywhere

50 Mb/s everywhere

Significant improvement to cell edge bitrate to offer consistent user


experience at target bitrate over 95% locations for 95% of time

Ultra-low cost networks Flexible radio parameters for cost reduction when offering limited services
(<10 Mb/s, >50ms, <20 Device/km2)
Higher user mobility

High speed train

Flexible radio parameters for speeds up to 500 km/h

Massive Internet of
Things

Sensor networks

Connectionless service to offer scalable solution for device densities of up to


200kDevice/km2 and extended battery life

Extreme real-time

Tactile internet

Flexible radio parameters for low latency down to 1 ms

Lifeline

Natural disaster

High availability and service recovery resilience mechanisms to ensure


availability of basic communications (voice, text, etc.) with large battery life

Ultra-reliable

Public safety

High reliability rates up to 99.999% (5 nines) implying need to eliminate single


points of failure from network design

Broadcast like

Broadcast services

Reuse of SFN techniques from LTE to offer efficient wide area service delivery

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Where does 4G stumble? = 6 requirement drivers for 5G


BROADBAND
Massive traffic capacity
Reduce Cost
Spectrum efficiency
Access new spectrum
INNOVATIVE
SERVICES
Flexible bearer design
3rd party policy
EXTREME DENSITY
Massive user density
User content

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5G

MISSION CRITICAL
Very low latency
High reliability
High availability
Security
BATTERY LIFE
Signaling reduction
Energy optimization
NON TRADITIONAL DEVICES
Short packet
Sporadic access
More devices and more device types

amount of traffic/sub/month

A divergence is coming: 2 asymptotes

5G
Start of mobile
broadband. Usage
per subscriber
Mobile voice, traffic increasing.
scaling proportional
to number of subs.

3G

2G

4G

At the same time as ultra-broadband


continues to grow, the rise of M2M traffic
and number of subscribers causes diverging
requirements, both technical and
economical.

Mobile entertainment, total traffic


driven by average data usage instead
of by number of subscribers.

# of subscribers (= human or machine)


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5G Vision
5G = unified
ecosystem

5G

5G Phase 1
below 6GHz

5G Phase 2
+ above 20GHz

2020

2022

Serving both
traditional as well
as potential new
applications like
drones, real time
video surveillance,
mobile augmented
and virtual reality,
IoT

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Ultra-broadband
Offering higher bitrates
and supporting extreme
traffic densities for the
evolution of comms
and entertainment

Ultra-narrowband
Efficient sensing and
control added to LTE
broadband; massive
densities of low traffic
devices and bearers

But also

Ultra low latency


Mission critical specialized
services and immersive
virtual reality

But also

Consistent experience
Better bits rather than
simply more cheap bits to
offer a more wireline like
experience

Technology evolution
The broadband scenario is clear

WiFi

802.11n

802.11ad

802.11ac

2015

LTE

WiFi

WiFi

2017

LTE-A
LTE-U

direct path: continues to serve


tradional mobile BB case.

2019

LTE-A

evolution

5G

<6GHz

LTE-A

2021 evolution

5G

mmWave
trigger:
last drop wire/
fiber replacement

triggers: marketing;
latency for augmented reality,
games; enabling massive MIMO
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Technology evolution
The broadband scenario is clear is narrowband sufficiently important ?

WiFi

802.11n

802.11ad

802.11ac

2015

LTE

WiFi

WiFi

direct path: continues to serve


tradional mobile BB case.

2017

LTE-A

2019

LTE-A

evolution

5G

LTE-U

<6GHz
trigger: LTE control
overload; low latency
control & command
applications

LTE-A

2021 evolution

5G

mmWave
trigger:
last drop wire/
fiber replacement

triggers: marketing;
latency for augmented reality,
games; enabling massive MIMO
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Narrowband and IoT: key requirements


Not just sensors, but a wide spectrum
Factor

Requirements low end

Requirements high end

Range

Peak data
rate

<100 bits/s UL (e.g. smart


metering)

> several Mb/s UL (e.g. security cameras)

10000

Latency

>1 s (e.g. smart metering


without control)

< 10 ms (e.g. ITS Intelligent Transportation


Systems - ITS)

100

Usage

<1 event/day (e.g. intrusion


alarm)

continuous (e.g. security cameras)

Coverage

Normal (e.g. outdoor devices)

+20 dB (e.g. indoor devices located in


basements)

100

Mobility

none (stationary devices)

seamless (e.g. ITS devices)

Device cost

not an issue

<4$ for e.g. smart meters

10

Battery
lifetime

N/A (e.g. remotely-powered


devices)

>10 years (e.g. smart meters)

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Predominance of short packets, today


Light Background: DL Packet Size Distribution

Heavier Background: DL Packet Size Distribution

0.8

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800
1000
Packet Size (bytes)

1200

1400

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

1600

200

Light Background: UL Packet Size Distribution

1200

1400

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Packet Size (bytes)

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1400

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0.2

0.2
0.1

200

0.3
0.2
0.1

Data taken from 3GPP TR 36.822 v1.0.2

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400

600
800
1000
Packet Size (bytes)

1200

1400

1600

200

400

600
800
1000
Packet Size (bytes)

1200

Gaming: UL Packet Size Distribution

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1400

1600

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1000
Packet Size (bytes)

1200

1400

1600

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Interactive Content Pull: UL Packet Size Distribution

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0.4

1600

0.7
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0.5

CDF

0.9

0.8

0.1

1600

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0.9

0.6

CDF

CDF

600
800
1000
Packet Size (bytes)

0.8

Heavier Background: UL Packet Size Distribution

400

0.9

CDF

0.5

9
10
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1
2
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CDF

0.9

0.8

Interactive Content Pull: DL Packet Size Distribution

CDF

0.9

Gaming: DL Packet Size Distribution

CDF

CDF

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51
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54
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0.1

200

400

600
800
1000
Packet Size (bytes)

1200

1400

1600

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600
800
1000
Packet Size (bytes)

1200

1400

1600

Burst profile from live LTE network in 2014


Combined uplink and downlink
BURST SIZE

NUMBER OF PACKETS PER BURST

burst size in bytes

number of frames/burst

1
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0.8

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0 0
10

dormancy timer = 2 sec


dormancy timer = 5 sec

0.9

probability < abscissa

probability < abscissa

dormancy timer = 2 sec


dormancy timer = 5 sec

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10
10
log(burst size(bytes))

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10

10

0 0
10

10

10
10
10
log(number frames/burst)

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10

SMART PHONE TRAFFIC CAN ALSO BENEFIT FROM SHORT BURST OPTIMIZATIONS
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So: Why do we need a new & unified 5G radio interface?

5G
When we talk about M2M subscribers, these are not just devices. Applications on
smartphones are already generating a large amount (30%) of short bursty traffic. Similarly
M2M gateways using cellular uplink will contribute to the total amount of narrowband
traffic. M2M subscribers = # devices # applications/device

Ultra-broadband already acts as a channel for part of the ultra-narrowband traffic.


The ultrabroadband track will require the integration of many different networks.
In order to steer traffic quickly, seamlessly, without impacting the end-user, an
efficient control system need to be present.
Efficient low latency narrowband communications benefit ultra-broadband as well.
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Key 5G Technologies

Small Cells
mm
Wave

Ultra-narrowband

Ultra-broadband

Massive
MIMO

Radios

New
radio
I/F

Connless

vRAN

Consistent
experience

SDN

vEPC
vIMS

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Ultra low latency

Policy

5G Radio: UF-OFDM
Filter added to OFDM

Designed to meet new requirements


- Contention based access for connection-less
services
- In-band optimization to devices and services
- Higher capacity

Universal Filtered OFDM (UF-OFDM)

Several tens of dB improved


out-of-band radiation

Rel. power [dB]

-10
-20

-
-
-
-
-

UF-OFDM

-30

CP-OFDM

-40
-50
-60

16

20

40
60
80
100
Frequency spacing in subcarrier steps

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120

140

New filter stage applied per sub-band


Cyclic prefix replaced by filter time response
More tolerant to power and timing errors
Reduced guard band requirements
May re-apply huge knowledge base of LTE
processing

[1] F. Schaich, T. Wild, Y. Chen, Waveform contenders for 5G - suitability


for short packet and low latency transmissions , VTC14
[2] 5GNOW deliverable D3.2

5G Radio: Two new radio interfaces plus LTE and WLAN


5G
Driver

LTE Evolution

WLAN

Low band
(< 6 GHz)

High band
(>20 GHz)

Ultra
broadband

MIMO, HetNet and


CoMP features

Multi-RAT and Boost

Higher spectrum
efficiency

Peak bitrates
Massive capacity

Consistent
experience

Capacity

Capacity

Contention access

Massive capacity

Short packet
Low latency

Scheduled low
latency service

Ultra low
latency
Ultra
narrowband

MTC features (to


bridge gap until 5G)

Short range access

Contention access

Role

LTE coverage
5G capacity extension

Capacity extension

5G coverage
Specialized services

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5G capacity extension in
dense areas

1. LTE with carrier aggregation and


dual-connectivity to small cell layer

Deployment Scenario
5G

2. New 5G carrier on macro layer: Wide


area coverage for new services,
improved efficiency and control
<6GHz

5G <6GHz
2/3G
Legacy
4G
4G
5G

>20GHz

3. Coverage extended on small cell


4. Massive capacity: Additional 5G
carriers above 20 GHz on small cells
5. Additional 5G carriers in cellular
bands on macro and small cells

5G

5G

>20GHz

<6GHz

4G

WLAN
4G
Macro
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Small cell (indoor)

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Small cell

NGMN: http://www.ngmn.org/work-programme/5g-initiative.html
GSMA: https://gsmaintelligence.com/research/?file=141208-5g.pdf&download
ITU-R IMT-2020: http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg5/rwp5d/imt-2020/Pages/default.aspx
3GPP: http://www.3gpp.org
5G-PPP: http://5g-ppp.eu
Alcatel-Lucent: http://www.alcatel-lucent.com/solutions/lte-to-5G
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