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A term paper submitted to Prof. Anna Floresca Abrina of the Department of Economics,
College of Economics and Management, University of the Philippine Los Banos in partial
fulfilment of the requirements in ECON151, Second Semester, 2009-2010.



Inseparable to almost any economic debate is the issue of government debt. In the
United States, Mankiw in 2003 said that the “debate about the appropriate amount of
government debt in the United States is as old as the country itself”. Although this
statement is metaphoric in the sense that the United States did not start with the
astounding 14-digit debt as we know it today and that in some years, the US Government
managed to have budget surplus, fiscal deficit, its issues and risks, remains inseparable to
the federal government itself. In the Philippines, where debt service also gives a heavy toll
on annual heated congressional debates during national budget planning, the issue on fiscal
deficit and fiscal debt are equally significant. The Low-Income Countries (developing
countries) are heavier reliant on fiscal debts. Many Low-Income Countries (LICs) require
substantial external financing to reach their development objectives. “Borrowing can help
achieve economic and social objectives, and debt is its consequence” (Barkbu, Beddies, &
Le Manchec, 2009). Over the years, even if many developing countries continue to succeed
in boosting economic growth through the fusion of wise economic policies and international
aid and debt burden among them significantly declined, government borrowing is
projected to continue as Low-Income Countries sustain their large development needs
through external means (Barkbu, Beddies, & Le Manchec, 2009).
On the other side of the economic picture, even developed countries borrow money.
Examine closely the budget allocation of almost any country and debt service would surely
appear1, sometimes, with appropriations even higher than major social services such as
education and health. Table 1.1 shows the amount of government debt as a percentage of
GDP for the top 19 most indebted countries in the world. Worth noticing is the fact that the
most indebted nations are developed countries.
Fiscal policy, in the wake of the recent financial crisis, became the center of
attraction of macroeconomics (Bi & Kumhof, 2009). In the United States, Mankiw in 2003
suggested that although attention to the government debt has heightened and lessened
indefinitely over the years, particular attention is intensely given to government borrowing
since the 1980’s. Today, debt service (payment for debt) among nations has posed heavy
burden especially on struggling economies. Achievement of Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs) is a major challenge for Low-Income Countries (LICs) and that most LICs,
especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, are far from achieving these objectives by 2015. These
are from individual assessments made by international agencies such as the International
Monetary Fund.
The targets set under the MDGs require by 2015 halving poverty (i.e. proportion of
people whose income is less than a dollar a day) and hunger (from 1990 base); ensuring
universal primary education; eliminating gender disparity at all levels of education;
reducing by two-thirds the under five mortality rate and three quarters maternal mortality
rates (from 1990 base); and halting and reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS, malaria and
other major diseases.
This paper explains fiscal deficit, and thus fiscal debt, in a general perspective. It
discusses the types of fiscal deficit and the means by which fiscal debt is carried out, and by

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doing so, the causes and effects of fiscal deficit. It also evaluates in general the impacts of
sustained fiscal debt to the various macroeconomic factors. In this paper, United States
data and situation dominate the discussion.
Budget deficit versus Government debt
More often than not, budget deficit and government debt are often interchanged by
individuals who do not have the idea of what these words really are. It is therefore only
right to begin the discussion by making a clear distinction between the two through their
Budget Deficit is an economic incident, which occurs when the spending of a
government goes above that of its financial savings. This normally happens when the
government does not plan its expenses, after taking into account its entire savings.
Therefore, the government has to cover the deficit by borrowing from the private sector.
Government debt, on the other hand, is an accumulated budget deficit over several
years. Under such situations, a certain portion of the governmental expenditure is then
utilized for settlement of such debts, with some maturity, and this maturity is capable of
being re-financed, through the issuance of securities, government bonds, and bills.
(Butkiewiz, 1983)
As the government draws its income from much of the population, government debt
is an indirect debt of the taxpayers. Government debt can be categorized as internal debt,
owed to lenders within the country, and external debt, owed to foreign lenders.
Note that government debt is characterized as the total amount owned by
somebody, while budget deficit is referred to as the amount by which savings improves or a
government debt develops.

Calculation of budgetary deficit and debt

The following formula is used to calculate budget deficit and debt:
D = RBt - 1 + Gt(r - g) – Tt
where: R = real rate of interest
Bt – 1 = debt of the previous year
r = rate of interest

g = rate of growth
Gt = government expenses; and
t = tax revenue
Nevertheless, the budget deficit of every country has its individual aspects that are
accountable for such circumstances to arise, and so varies worldwide (Cox, 1985).

Types of budget deficit

Eisner in 1989 enumerated the three kinds of budget deficit. Budget deficit can be
classified into cyclical budget deficit, early budget deficit, or structural budget deficit.
Cyclical Budget Deficits: At the basic level of the commercial cycle, the rate of
unemployment is high. However, unemployment is low at the peaks of the commercial
cycle. This improves tax revenue and leads to a fall in the expenditure associated with
social security. Cyclic Deficit refers to the urgency to borrow money at the lowest
point of the commercial cycle, which is paid back completely by a cyclic surplus existing at
the highest levels of the business cycle.
Early Budget Deficit: This existed prior to the invention of bonds. At that time, such
deficits could only be funded with loans taken from either foreign nations or private
financers. However, with passing time, these deficits or loans gained popularity in the
hands of private investors, who started to accumulate sufficient capital to meet their
expenses at a time when the government became unable to print paper currencies, owing to
succeeding inflation.
A permanent loan or deficit is associated with adequate risk factors for the lenders.
At a later stage, attempts were made on governmental levels to do marketing of such
deficits or debts by issuance of bonds, payable to the bondholders or bearers, instead of the
actual buyers. This indicates that such debts are saleable, provided a person lends it to the
other through state money. This at the same time brings about a reduction in overall rates
of interest as well as the risks associated with the whole procedure.
Structural Budget Deficits: This refers to the deficit being present across the
commercial cycle. Such budget deficit prevails when the general government expenses
exceed the existing levels of tax.

However in case of both Cyclic and Structural Budget Deficit, the visible total deficit
is equivalent to the sum of either the deficits or their surplus.

Causes of Fiscal Debt

The discussion on the causes of fiscal deficit would lead us to analyzing the
important terms on the fiscal deficit equation. In its simplest explanation, the difference
between government spending and government revenue is what we call as government
budget deficit. This deficit, in turn, leads to the amount of debt the government has to issue
to finance its operations (Dornbusch & Fischer, 1978). History using time-series data would
tell us that in the United States alone, federal debt and debt servicing are taking center
stage. “In the absence of significant policy changes”, Rubin et. al. remarks, “federal
government deficits are expected to total around $5 trillion over the next decade” (Rubin,
Orszag, & Sinai, 2004).
Discussing the bases behind government borrowing impose a danger to either
rationalize the reason or to justify and fall into the trap of over-idealized principles that
always fail in real life situation. Although the media has always been skeptical on
government debt, economists and politicians have a lot to say about why we should tolerate
government borrowing in some cases.
The terms government spending and government revenue maybe defined so as to
include a lot of components. Government Spending includes components up to public
corporations that are “not being run on commercial basis and engage in borrowings to
finance their operations”. Spending involves components that cover both current
(Government Consumption) and capital outlay (Government Investments). (Yaqub, 1994)
The Government Revenue comes from tax and non-tax forms of income of the
government. In the United States, individual income taxes account for almost 80% of the
total Government Revenue. taxes from Corporations makes up another 12%. Excise taxes,
estate taxes, customs duties, and other taxes, including non-tax income, make up the
remaining 8%. Non-tax income include earnings of the Federal Reserve System and
various fees charged by the different Federal Departments and Units that serves as
additional income for the Government. (Williams, 2009)

The Philippines story is not much of a difference. Taxes makes up the majority of
Government Revenue. Tax laws in the Philippines covers both national and local taxes. By
national taxes, we mean internal revenue imposed and collected by the national
government through the Bureau of Internal Revenue. By local taxes, we refer to taxes
collected by the local government. Through the 1987 Consitution (Article VI, Section 28,
paragraph 1), the Congress was granted the power and responsibility to evolve a
progressive form of taxation. The local government was also granted the power “to create
its own sources of revenues and to levy taxes, fees, and charges” (Article X, Section 5). The
local government also receives a certain portion of the revenue collected through the
national taxes which shall automatically be released to them. (Bureau of Internal Revenue,
Like in the Philippines, the United States Government Budget, which dictates where
does the government spend its money, is also authorized by the Congress. Over 50% of
federal government spending is manadatory. Mandatory Spending means expenditures are
controlled by laws other than appropriations acts. Less than 40% is discretionary
(Williams R. , 2009).
Most people are skeptical about borrowing. Walden in 2005 writes that “the
national debt is one of those issues on which some on both the Right and Left agree. They
agree it should be reduced, if not totally paid off.” Many politicians, aiming for position
during election campaign, promise to focus on reducing public debt, and public borrowing.
In fact, among former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s first promises to the
English people is that “her government would take the attitude of a careful housewife, only
spending what they received”. However, as we have earlier showed, developed countries
and developing countries alike borrow money to finance the deficit in the revenue.
The fiscal deficit is financed in the very same way civilians borrow to finance the
deficit in their earnings. To start with, at least for the United States, much of the
government spending is directly paid through checks drawn on a Federal Reserve Bank.
Dornbusch and Fischer in 1978 writes that “aside from the fact that the check is drawn on
a bank in which private individuals do not have accounts, a payment made by the
government looks much like a check payment made by everyone else.” In some years,
because most of the government revenue come from taxes, a deficit occurs whenever tax

revenue fall short to government expenditure. Whenever deficit occur, the government has
to borrow.

The question of where does deficit come from is clear. According to Thompson in
1988, an increase in the budget deficit results from greater expenditures and/or lower
receipts2. Either change is expansionary, but an increase in teh deficit can occur for two
different reasons.
First, as emphasized in the discussion, the deficit will increase if government
spending increases or when taxes decrease. Decisions on increasing government spending
or lowering tax rates require major decisions from the Congress or the President.
Economists refer to such deliberate decisions as discretionary policies.
As an example, we can look at war periods as a good example to demonstrate a
dramatic rise in government spending. Examining US time-series data on debt-to-GDP
ratio, we can note that the indebtedness of the federal government has varied substantially
since 1791. However, as the figures would suggest, deficits were highest during wars and
recession. Economic theory would support this claim.
As discussed earlier, fiscal deficit happens when Government Revenue is insufficient
to support Government Spending. Because national defense is considered public good (non-
rival and non-exclusive), it is only rationale for the Government to take the burden to
provide it. When wars break, spending on defense by the Government dramatically rises.
Wars means more money needed to purchase new tanks and weaponry and more money
needed to finance wages of the army. In the United States, a big portion of the Government
Budget goes to the Department of Defense and war outbreaks easily plunge Government
Spending into great heights where taxes cannot anymore support the expenditure, leading
to high fiscal deficit. Figure 1 (Appendix B) shows the graph of US Spending by Type
(Mandatory, Discretionary, Interest payment). Figure 2 (Appendix C) shows the
composition of discretionary spending in 2008 by the United States. About half of the
discretionary spending was paid for defense in the 2008 Fiscal Year. Three (3) percent of

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discretionary spending funded international activities, such as foreign aid especially to less
developed nations. The rest were used to finance domestic programs such as construction
of major roads and bridges, agricultural subsidies and other services by the state.

The history of the national debt of the United States would even point us to the fact
that a war started the debt history of the country. The first Secretary of Treasury of the
United States, Alexander Hamilton, believed in a strong central government. After the
Revolutionary War, the states have accumulated debts. Hamilton suggested that the central
government take over these debts and just issue interest-bearing government bonds which
would be redeemable at different definite dates in the future. Instead of running and
retiring entirely the debt, Hamilton believed that maintaining a certain portion of the
national debt would be beneficial. He believed it would display a healthier and more stable
government, which was necessary after a war.
During that time, there were no income taxes3. The United States Government’s
Revenue only comes from tariffs on imports and excise taxes on alcohol. These taxes
sustained the expenditures by the Government. And for the first 150 years, the usual
pattern continued: fiscal deficits only occur whenever wars break-out but are immediately
paid off by running surpluses whever the wars end. The country’s debt retires during
peacetimes. In fact, at one point in the 1830’s, the United States’ national debt were
completely zeroed out after two decades of peace and prosperity. After the Civil War of
the 1860’s, the US national debt was $2.8 billion. (Dighe, 2000)
The government ran increasingly large deficits to finance the Vietnam War in the
1960s, but a temporary tax increase to finance the war in 1968-69 and reduced spending on
the war resulted in a budget surplus in 1969, the government's last budget surplus until

However, the level of fiscal deficit can also change when the level of GNP changes.
Because lower GNP means lower income and higher unemployment, deficit worsens when
GNP decreases.Thus, a drop in GNP automatically lowers tax receipts and increases

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govenrment transfer payments. Because income taxes, unemploykment compensation
welfare, and other governemnt revenue and transfer programs respond spontaneously to a
change in GNP, economists refer to them as automatic stabilizers.
When depression hit the United States back in the 1830s, the federal governemnt
was once again plunged into fiscal deficit. the Keynesians believed that expansionary fiscal
policy is the remedy to get the country out of a depression. And one way to do it is to
increase government spending – which more often than not results to fiscal deficit. The idea
of deliberate deficit spending to stimulate the economy, to get the economy out of a
recession or depression, (that is, expansionary fiscal policy) was never considered by U.S.
Presidents or Congresses before the 1930s (Dighe, 2000). In fact, Herbert Hoover, who was
President of the United States in 1929-1933, did just the opposite. President Hoover raised
taxes, which worsens the deficit. Another US President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, ran on a
balanced-budget platform in 1932, “though he became the first president to openly tolerate
deficits during peacetime”.
Also, like Hoover, FDR also raised taxes during the Great Depression, first in 1935
then again in 1936. Then in late 1937, in the midst of severe recession-within-a-depression,
FDR cut spending and imposed a big increase in Social Security taxes.

Effects and Issues on Deficit

Is there a link between deficit and inflation? This is one question that comes to mind
when deficit is being discussed. Some economists would say that inflation is created by the
government when there is a high level of deficit. Given that there is a high level of debt, the
government will be pushed to print money. Therefore, price level rises and the real value of
debts declines since most of the government’s debt is in nominal terms.
There may be a connection between deficit and inflation yet it is irrelevant in most
developed countries. The reasons for it to be irrelevant are the following: One, the
government need not depend on seigniorage to finance deficit, instead it will sell debts.
Two, banks are free from political coercion thereby banks decide whether or not they have
to implement more expansionary monetary policy. Lastly, policymakers are aware that
inflation is not an efficient solution to fiscal problems.

The link between deficit and inflation is believed to be weak especially during
recessions. When there is a recession, aggregate demand is weak. Even if deficits cause
automatic stabilizers to improve the aggregate demand, it has little effect on the price level.
When the economy is near a full employment, deficits have small impacts on the aggregate
demand since the crowding out effect is strong. In the United States, over its long run
deficits, there is an increase in the money supply. This relationship is not applicable to all
countries. This is believed to happen since Fed’s maintain the interest rates to be low.
During the 1980s, Fed agreed on increasing the interest rates making the rate of inflation
fall yet deficits are high.
Another question that may be raised is that if budget deficits increase interest rates.
In the United States during the 1980s, democrats and republicans have a different view on
deficit. Democrats said that deficits were the height of fiscal irresponsibility and harmed the
economy. Republicans, on the other hand, said that deficits may not harm the economy and
may even help control the government spending. Some people would say that deficits harm
the economy because they increase the interest rates. Take note of the word “some” as it
pertains to people from the corporate persons or even those people on the street. They
believe that when a government is under a deficit, it is a must for the government to
borrow money. Higher budget deficits equals higher tendency for the government to
borrow. In line with this, it is not only the government that borrows but also other sectors
such as the households and businesses. As more demands of borrowing, the interest rates
also increases.
Not because some people accept this argument as fact, it means that it is true. There
are economic studies that disprove that argument. There is actually no relationship
between deficit and interest rates. This is because of the following reasons: One, there are
other factors that affect the level of interest rates. In this case, interest rates are not solely
affected by the deficit due to factors such as trade, growth of credit, exchange rates, and
politics. Two, as said earlier, that even if the government borrows money, the other sectors
will still borrow. Looking at it thoroughly, it is possible that the household and business
sector would opt not to borrow money when the government does. The intuition behind this
is that the others sectors expect that when the government borrowings increases, there is a
tendency for the taxes to increase. For them to meet the high payments in the future, they

will save more, borrow less thereby making the interest rates steady even if the government
borrows more.
So, is debt a future burden? Before answering that question, we must consider the
internal and external debt. Although the internal debt will redistribute income in the
future, it is not really an aggregate burden. On the contrary, there is nothing wrong when
the external debt increases. The problem is when debts are foreign-owned. These debts are
possible future burden. In 1984, 50% of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico’s GNP is foreign
debt owed it to U.S banks. That burden made the average income to decline from 1980 to
On another note, the cyclical conditions of the economy affect the size of the deficit.
This has to do with automatic stabilizer. In case of a recession, the government spending
increases while there is a decline in the tax receipts. The consequence of these automatic
stabilizers can be that when there is an increase in the unemployment rate, the tax revenues
decreases. The deficit expands since people run to the government for an income aid and
thereby increasing not only revenues but also spending.
In a structural deficit view, it does not include those relating to economic conditions
such as increase in spending or decline in revenue. In 1980, the deficit of the United States
of America doubled due to a rise in unemployment. Therefore, there is an increase in
expenditures and a decrease in revenue. There has been fiscal expansionary policies
implemented which lead to an increase in the structural deficit. If the structural deficit
falls, the total spending and output is limited by the government. The basic measure of a
fiscal policy can be determined through the changes in the structural deficit.
Usually, most state constitutions prefer to have a government which manages a
balanced budget. On the other hand, most economists argue that it is beneficial for the
economy to experience a deficit or a surplus. Three reasons why it is beneficial: First, a
deficit or a surplus can help stabilize the economy. Having a balanced budget rule, it cancels
out the automatic stabilizers. This stabilizers force the budget to be in a deficit as taxes go
down and transfers increase under a recession. The government should cut down its
spending but this in turn will slow down aggregate demand. Two, a deficit or surplus can be
used to reduce the distortion of incentives caused by the tax system. With high tax rates,
disincentives become large. These tax rates tries to restrain economic activity as these rates
incur cost on society. To minimize the costs, the government must maintain the stability of
the tax rates. This is called tax smoothing. A deficit is needed to keep tax rates smooth in
times of recessions or wars. Lastly, a budget deficit can be used to shift a tax burden from
current to future generations.

Fiscal Deficit in the Philippine Context

Knowing the definition and basics of fiscal deficit as discussed above, we now take a
closer look and understanding of fiscal deficit in line with its existence in the Philippine
macro-economy. In general, fiscal deficit exists when the national government’s
expenditures exceed the revenues generated. Last year, we ended with a deficit of P298.5
billion which translates that the government exceeded its revenues by a large amount of
P298.5 billion. The table below shows the fiscal performance of our country for the past
years from 2000 to 2009.
We can see that for the past 10 years, the Philippine government has been operating
on a fiscal deficit. Fiscal deficit is lowest in the year 2007 which is parallel with the good
economic performance we had that year. However, last year posted the highest fiscal deficit
and increased very much compared to the fiscal deficit in 2008 at P68,117 million.
A way to finance these deficits is through borrowing funds either locally or abroad.
However, these debts will require taxes in the future and will only then be a contribution to
fiscal deficit. The interest payments will then be another part of our expenditures which is
set apart from our debt services. These payments could have gone to development projects
to build roads and fight poverty.
In this case, the government should have reforms both in the revenue and
expenditure side. Since fiscal deficit is primarily based on revenues and expenditures, it can
be decreased either by decreasing expenditures or increasing revenues. On the revenue
side, there should be reforms in tax policies and tax administration. On the other hand, on
the expenditure side public expenditures should be managed.
Nonetheless, the government is making efforts to bridge the widening gap between
our national debt and capacity to pay. The government targets to balance the budget
through revenue and expenditure programs. In terms of the revenues, the national
government aims to generate additional revenues of over P180 billion a year through
executive reforms, which could lead to earnings or savings of around P100 billion. The
remaining P80 billion or more is expected from legislated revenue measures. On the other
hand, expenditure pattern targets a reduction of the following as a percentage of GDP: 1)
interest payments, from 5.8% in 2004 to 3.7% in 2010; and 2) expenditures for personal
This action plan of the government to balance the budget may not be as effective as
this was implemented last 2004 which is targeted to balance the budget by 2010. As we have
seen in the table above, there had been reduction in year 2005 to 2007 but increased again
in 2008 and rose even larger by 2009. However, this may be due to the financial crisis that
many countries are experiencing.

The macroeconomic stability of an economy is measured in terms of the four crucial
economic factors: Government Budget, Balance of Payments, Growth in Money Supply
and the General Price Level Stability. In the Economic sense, all four factors are
interrelated and can significantly influence each other. However, in an economy where
Government is a major economic player, like our own, the behavior of the first factor, the
Government Budget would essentially reflect the behavior of other variables. That is to say
that any imbalance in the budget would be translated in imbalances or undesirable growth
in other variables. With this in mind, it is therefore important to maintain a responsible
The group capitalizes on the fact that economics would prove fiscal deficit is not
entirely negative. It builds mainly in the fact that Government must spend on certain
expenditures that it is expected to provide (e.g. social services, education, health) regardless
of the budget. It becomes positive when financing goes to investments which have long-term
Fiscal deficit becomes negative when it is perpetuating. Perpetual fiscal deficit
accumulates and leads to fiscal debt which gives burden not just to the government, but to
the entire economy as a whole.

Table 1. Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP of Top 19 Most Indebted Countries

How Indebted Are the World’s Governments

Country Government Debt as Country Government Debt as
a Percentage to GDP a Percentage to GDP
Japan 119 Ireland 54
Italy 108 Spain 53
Belgium 105 Finland 51
Canada 101 Sweden 49
Greece 100 Germany 46
Denmark 67 Austria 40
United Kingdom 64 Netherlands 27
United States 62 Australia 26
France 58 Norway 24
Portugal 55
Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Figures are based on estimates of gross government debt and GDP for


Figure 1. US Spending by Type from 1962 to 2008.

Source:: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and the Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008-2017,
2008 2017,
January 2007, Table E-5 for 1962-1968, BudgetOutlook.pfd.

Congressional Budget Office, A Preliminary Analysis of the President’s Budget and an update of CBO’s
Budget and Economic Outlook, march 2009, table F-5,
F for 1969-2008 available at

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Table 2. National Government performance from 2000 to 2009 (in million pesos).

Source: Bureau of Treasury


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