Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
October, 2015
FIBRIA APP WITH THIS PRESENTATION IS AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT APPLE STORE AND GOOGLE PLAY.
Disclaimer
1
2 Pulp and Paper Market
3 Financial and Operational Highlights
4
Company Overview
Final Remarks
Agenda
Company Overview
4
A Winning Player
Superior Asset Combination
Belmonte
Veracel
Caravelas
Portocel
Aracruz
Pulp capacity
million tons
5,300
Net revenues
R$ billion
8.0
thousand hectares
967
Planted area(1)
thousand hectares
563
R$ billion
8.2
1.95
Net Debt
Net Debt/EBITDA (in Dollars)(2)
Trs Lagoas
Jacare
Santos
Port Terminal
Pulp Unit
Source: Fibria
(1) Including 50% of Veracel, excluding forest partnership areas and forest bases linked to the sales of Losango and forest assets in Southern Bahia State.
(2) For covenants purposes, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is calculated in Dollars.
* Veracel is a joint venture between Fibria (50%) and Stora Enso (50%) and the total capacity is 1,120 thousand ton/year
Highlights
Region - 2Q15
North
24%
Europe
42%
Tissue
49%
LatAm
8%
Asia
26%
Printing &
Writing
36%
Specialties
15%
18%
44%
9%
10%
9%
10%
20%
22%
25%
26%
26%
26%
30%
22%
44%
42%
37%
43%
8%
21%
Worldwide presence
Long-term relationships
9%
8%
10%
9%
10%
10%
10%
9%
25%
26%
26%
27%
24%
23%
26%
26%
31%
19%
23%
27%
27%
17%
31%
24%
35%
36%
46%
42%
39%
40%
47%
42%
29%
43%
1T12 2T12 3T12 4T12 1T13 2T13 3T13 4T13 1T14 2T14 3T14 4T14 1T15 2T15
Europe
North America
Asia
Other
Pulp volumes:
Selling price based on the average net price charged by Fibria at the Port of Paranagu (FOB Paranagu)
Agreement benefits:
Mutual value creation, with better servicing for both Companies customers base
8
Votorantim
Industrial S.A. (1)
29.42%
BNDES
Participaes (1)
29.08%
Free
Float (2)
General
Meeting
41.50%
Fiscal
Council
20% independent
members
Role of CEO and
chairman is split
Board of
Directors
Finance
Committee
Statutory
Audit
Committee
Personnel and
Remuneration
Committee
Sustainability
Committee
Innovation
Committee
30%
independent
members
100%
independent
members
50% independent
members
45% independent
members
Corporate Governance
Anti-Corruption
Information Disclosure
Securities Trading
Antitrust
Genetically Modified Eucalyptus
1,275
Suzano Maranho
320
1,270
100
DELAYED
Montes del Plata
Sappi Cloquet
Jari
555
-155
Sappi Cloquet
-410
Jari
Net
BEKP demand growth*
1,585
1,080
-155
-410
Cellulose du Maroc
-140
Sodra Tofte
-60
Net
BEKP demand growth*
Unexpected
Closures
605
1,310
11
814
810
800
790
795
788
791
784
780
772
770
767
765
770
772
4Q13
Annual 2013
760
750
740
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2012 for 2013 prices)
12
230
Eldorado
1,275
Suzano Maranho
Montes del Plata
Suzano Maranho
830
1,100
560
Oji Nantong*
230
Eldorado
550
Oji Nantong*
235
UPM
100
Sappi Cloquet
-115
Sappi Cloquet
-70
Sodra Tofte
-120
Sodra Tofte
-120
APRIL Rizhao
2,660
Net
BEKP demand growth**
1,380
-65
Old Town
-85
Ence Huelva
-105
More unexpected
mill closures
Net
1,770
1,734
13
782
780
768
752
760
740
737
746
729
734
733
720
718
700
696
680
660
640
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
Annual 2014
Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2013 for 2014 prices)
14
400
750
Oji Nantong
750
CMPC Guaiba II
200
Eldorado
Portucel Cacia
30
85
Sappi Cloquet
April Rizhao
Ence Huelva
Possible closures*
Net
115
-65
-315
-400 to -800
1,415 to 1,815
1005
15
11%
10%
1,734 kt
20%
6%
5%
717 kt
386 kt
790 kt
13%
17%
537 kt
12%
92 kt
Total
(1)
North
America
Western
Europe
China
Others
Total
(2)
4%
99 kt
130 kt
North
America
Western
Europe
11%
319 kt
242 kt
China
Others
2015
Total
FORECAST
REALIZED
PREVIOUS
FORECAST
LATEST
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
LATEST
Woodfree
256
256
760
760
1,016
1,016
Tissue
1,390
1,278
727
1,365
2,117
2,643
Cartonboard
2,100
1,326
380
730
2,480
2,056
Total
3,746
2,860
1,867
2,855
5,613
5,715
16
200
180
172
160
140
120
100
80
77
60
40
20
-
China GDP
Eucalyptus Shipments
17
Commodities Differentiation
China GDP breakdown
8%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
44%
47%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
47%
47%
46%
49%
49%
48%
49%
49%
50%
50%
50%
51%
51%
52%
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Consumption
Investment
Net Exports
Soybeans
Wheat
Crude oil
Iron ore
Sugar
BHKP
248
204
190
166
153
124
120
100
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
18
3.000
Weighted average
technical age 12.3 years
STRONG
2.500
STRONG
2.500
Aracruz
2.000
1.500
2.000
Weighted average
capacity 1,277,000 t/a
Trs Lagoas
1.500
Jacare
1.000
Veracel
1.000
Weighted average
capacity 527,000 t/a
Ence
Huelva
500
500
Old
Town
30
WEAK
20
10
0
30
WEAK
25
Closures
20
15
10
Technical Age, years
Grade Switch
On & Off
More than 7.7 million tons of capacity above 25 years and with annual capacity below 500,000 t/y.
19
-105
-540
-445
-500
-750
-910
-1,085
-1,180
-1,260
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015-2017 E
(1)
As of April 2015
20
1.000
Horizonte II
900
1,6
Rizhao
Maranho
Trs
Lagoas
700
APP
Hainan
600
500
400
Santa F
1,4
Montes
del Plata Guaba II
Eldorado
Fray
Bentos
Mucuri
Veracel Nueva Aldea
Valdivia
1,8
1,2
Klabin
1,0
Chenming
Zhanjiang
Kerinci
PL3
800
2,0
0,8
APP Guangxi
300
0,6
Oji
Nantong
200
0,4
100
0,2
0,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
(1) Source: Hawkins Wright , Poyry and Fibria Analysis. Pulp price estimates according to Hawkins Wright (July/15), Brian McClay (Sept./15) and RISI (May/15)
(2) Partially integrated production.
21
160
120
80
2008-2009 Economic
crisis
40
The marginal cost producers are based in Europe and North America
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Jun-04
Dec-03
Jun-03
Dec-02
Jun-02
Dec-01
Jun-01
Dec-00
Jun-00
Dec-99
32%
30%
25%
25%
23%
23%
23%
15%
12%
6%
Sugar
Nickel
WTI
Crude Oil
Soy
Copper
Iron Ore
LME
Metals
Ibovespa
Cattle
FX
FOEX PIX
BHKP
Since 2009
23
215
124
74
Iron Ore
Source: Bloomberg
Soy Bean
Crude Oil
Sugar
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
50
46
40
th 2015
- September,
August 31st,29
2015
Low volatility of hardwood pulp price, even though new capacities have
come on stream in the period.
24
3.39(3)
Exchange Rate
Average (R$/US$)
2.00
1.76
670
1.67
639
1.95
581
2.15
2.35
2.69
610
572
561
583
Market
Consensus(2)
456
1,976
1,179
912
40%
EBITDA Margin
29%
1,311
1,067
34%
1,344
1,509
1,133
36%
40%
39%
46%
3,682
2,526
1,964
1,522
2,796
2,791
2013
2014
2,253
2009(1)
2010(1)
2011
2012
LTM 2Q15
2015 E
(1) Excludes Conpacel | (2) 2015 year-end market consensus | (3) According to Focus Report (Brazilian Central Bank September 25, 2015)
26
FX
4.12 (3)
78
466(2)
EBITDA
Margin
373
248
116
263
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
35%
35%
45%
50%
50%
Average FX
Free cash flow (R$ million)
Sept.
2T14
2T15
2.2295
3.0731
+38%
248
544
+119%
(1) Does not consider non recurring items | (2) Not considering dividends payment | (3) Ptax as of Sept. 29, 2015
27
(1,657)
( 357 )
1.219
( 408 )
Adjusted EBITDA
Capex
Interest
(paid/received)
( 70 )
Working Capital
Taxes
(3)
29
Others (1)
1.070
( 149 )
Dividends
2Q15
2Q14
ROE = 9.0% | ROE = 13.4%
ROIC = 10.1% | ROIC = 13.9%
(1) Does not include non-recurring items. | (2) Not considering dividends payment. | (3) Cash basis. For detailed information,, see 2Q15 Results Earnings Release (page 17).
28
Cash Production Cost saw a annual increase of 4.2% over the past
6 years
Fibria Cash Production Cost (1) (R$/ton)
CAGR: + 4.2%
505
432
448
471
473
2011
2012
2013
519
2014
531
Consistently
controlling the
production
cash cost at a
level below
the inflation
pace.
LTM 2Q15
29
Indebtdeness
Net Debt (Million)
Interest (US$)
2.88
2.34
2.43
- 35%
2.23
2.30
8,991
8,197
50
6,681
2,803
Jun/14
2,642
Mar/15
R$
33
9,352
8,457
3,033
35
1.95
3,840
9,015
2,915
- 24%
2,906
Jun/15
Jun/14
US$
Mar/15
R$
Jun/15
US$
600
554
(revolver)
3.5
3.5
3.6
447
369
350
186
264
90
2015
54
52
Jun/14
Mar/15
Jun/15
213
(cash)
Liquidity
52
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
21
2022
3
2023
Pre-payment
BNDES
ECN
ACC/ACE
Voto IV
Bond
2024
(*) Considering the portion of debt in reais fully adjusted by the market swap curves at the end
of each period.
30
Capital Structure: Fibria has achieved the lowest leverage ratio among
its Latin American peers
Net Debt/EBITDA (x)(1)
14.8
13.2
11.7
4.8
3.6
11.1
4.5
8.9
4.5
3.7
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
Fibria
4Q12
Suzano
1Q13
2Q13
Klabin
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
CMPC
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
Arauco
6.4
4.2
4.1
3.6
3.23.4
3.1
2.9
3.0
2.7
3.1
2.7
2.4 2.3
2.4
1.7
1.7
4Q11
7.7
3.1
2.9
1Q15
4.5
3.8
3.3
3.1
2.2
2Q15
Eldorado
Fibria
Arauco
CMPC
Klabin
Suzano
S&P
BBB-/Stable
BBB-/Stable
BBB-/Stable
BBB-/Negative
BB+/Stable
Moodys
Ba1/Positive
Baa3/Stable
Baa3/Negative
Ba2+/Stable
Fitch
BBB-/Stable
BBB/Stable
BBB+/Stable
BBB-/Stable
(1)
31
7.29
5.9
5.5
5.2
8.6
4.11
4.25
473
3.32
6.3
2.60
2.41
414
408
4.6
3.4
350
1.95
3.6(1)
268
200
164
2.9 2.6
2009
2010
2011
2012
Gross Debt
2013
2014
Jun/15
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
LTM
2Q15
Net Debt
Interest
Reduction
Cost of Debt
Reduction
These dynamics
creates a virtuous
cycle
(*) Considering the portion of debt in reais fully adjusted by the market swap curves of June. 30, 2015.
32
Amount: up to R$675m
Book of US$515m
Avg. Term
(years)
160
175
140
143
150
Raizen
Ecopetrol
Fibria
Colbun
Braskem
Molymet
Argos USA
113
120
COPEC
33
1050
961
786
607
362
367
401
416
Embraer
2023/25
Globopar
2022/255
440
480
486
489
Suzano
2024
Vale 2022
Samarco
2024
675
Gerdau
2024
Braskem
2024
Odebrecht Petrobras
2023/25
2024
34
Fibria has the simplest and most transparent call in the industry
Negative
Pulp supply
Neutral
Positive
Tissue
China
Closures/conversions
Inefficient capacities in China
Demand
Fiber and grade substitution
Pulp price
Brazil GDP
Energy crisis
FX
Capex inflation
Tax
Corporate Governance
Cost inflation
Rating
35
Final Remarks
36
Fibria is able to create value for its shareholders with capital discipline
BIO-ENERGY AND
PULP
INDUSTRY
CONSOLIDATION ?
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES
DIVIDENDS
Complementary to pulp
Portocel
Horizonte 2 Project
38
Competitiveness
Commercial
positioning
Long-term growth
potential
39
Start-up: 4Q2017
Capacity: 1.75 million tons
7,950
Fibria
CMPC
RGE/APRIL
Suzano
APP
Eldorado
UPM
Stora Enso
Arauco
Cenibra
ENCE
Altri
IP
Marubeni
Mitsubishi
Oji
Mondi
Nippon Paper
Verso
Resolute
Georgia-Pacific
Portucel Soporcel
Lwart
Pulp Mill Holding
Domtar
Klabin
Others
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Current Capacity
New Capacity
40
37%
42%
19%
24%
36%
25%
4%
9%
(1) Considers 2Q15 last twelve months. | (2) Includes Klabins sales volume
41
Schedule
Purchase of the
industrial plants
Beginning of
infrastructure and
purchase of the TGs
Beginning of forest
machinery deliveries
Beginning of
construction
Negotiations with
concession holders and
Port of Santos tendering
Beginning of
harvest
Beginning of
assembly
Definition of outbound
logistics formats
Startup
Utilities clearance
and commissioning
L1 interconnections
during maintenance
downtime
Hiring of operational
team
2Q15
3Q15
2015
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
2016
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
2017
42
Forestry base
43
H2 Project will have the forest base ready for the start-up
120,000 ha
H2:
174,000 ha
Total:
294,000 ha
44
Logistics
45
Forestry Logistics
Low average distance from forest to mill
FOREST
MILL
95 km
H1 + H2 consolidated
46
Outbound logistics
Fibria has logistical alternatives on a competitive basis
Ports
Highways
Railroads
Waterways
Analysis
Logistics Costs
Opex - Rates
Capex
Qualitative
Modal conditions
Mato Grosso
Brasilia
Gois
Mato
Grosso do
Sul
47
Financials
48
457
421
351
347
298
291
214
170
China
USA
Iberia
Canada
Chile/Uruguay
Indonesia
Brazil
155
Source: Hawkins Wright (Outlook for Market Pulp, July 2015) - FX considered by the consultant of R$/US$3.14.
H2 cash cost was estimated according to weighted average cost, after mill balance, converted by R$3.14. Includes energy sales.
49
Index
R$
5,548
72
Inflation
indices
EUR(1)
2,004
26
FX
58%
30%
USD(1)/Swedish
Krona
154
FX
7%
Total
7,7067
100
2015
2016
2017
1%
4%
2018
2019
onwards
50
7.8
0.6
Q2 Excess
Cash(1)
BNDES
CRA
FDCO
ECAs
Banks
Working
Capital(2)
Total
Even with expansion capex at current levels of FX, leverage ratios can continue
to decrease
(1) Cash on hand above minimum cash balance at end of Jun-2015
(2) Working capital to be released in 2016 and 2017 in commercial deal with Klabin
51
We expect Fibria to continue benefiting from higher operating cash flows which
would allow it to enlarge its Trs Lagoas industrial complex while keeping its debt at
reasonable levels for a low investment-grade rating
Fitchs base case, which assumes that the company builds a new pulp mill (Trs
Lagoas II) starting in 2015 and uses net pulp prices of between USD575 and USD675
per ton during the construction period, results in net leverage reaching 3.5x(1). Net
leverage would quickly decline to around 2.5x(1) once the mill becomes operational
in the second half of 2017
52
UNIT
Pulp production/year(1)
k tons
1,750
Expansion capex(2)
R$ billion
7.7
Sustaining capex(3)
R$/t
193
Cash cost(4)
R$/t
341
Energy surplus
MWh
120
53
Infrastructure/Logistics
Governance standards
Cost of capital
Environmental requirements
Credit rating
Backup
55
Amount
Annual tax deduction:
R$89 million (tax)
Goodwill
(Aracruz
acquisition)
Forestry Capex in
Mato Grosso do
Sul state
Benefit
Amount
Tax loss
carryforward
2018
Accumulated tax
credits
Undefined
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
R$ 16 million
R$ 4 million
R$ 15 million
R$ 31 million
R$ 29 million
R$ 45.8 million
56
Leadership Position
Industry Outlook(1)
Fiber Consumption
406 million t
59%
41%
Recycled Fiber
238 million t
Pulp
168 million t
18%
82%
Mechanical
30 million t
Chemical
138 million t
59%
41%
Integrated Mills
82 million t
Market Pulp
56 million t
54%
46%
Softwood/Other
26 million t
Hardwood
30 million t
33%
67%
Acacia/Other
10 million t
Eucalyptus
20 million t
74%
Other Eucalyptus
Pulp producers:
15 million t
26%
(1) Fiber Consumption, Recycled Fiber and Pulp: RISI | Market Pulp, Hardwood and Eucalyptus: PPPC Global 100 Report December 2014
57
40.000
35.000
000 ton
1999
2009
2019
Growth
19992009
Growth
20092019
Hardwood
16.3
24.8
33.8
52%
36%
Eucalyptus
6.0
15.9
24.1
165%
52%
Softwood
19.0
21.4
24.9
13%
16%
Market Pulp
35.3
46.2
58.7
30%
27%
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
Hardwood
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Softwood
Source: PPPC reports. Excludes Sulphite and UKP market pulp (Sept./15)
58
4.651
6M2014
4.014
6M2015
1.880
2.199
LTM Growth
Rate +4.2%
30
25
20
15
1.0301.048
BHKP Total
(kg/person/year)
35
977
10
1.203
Latin
Indonesia Others(2)
America (1)
95 95
19 101
USA
Canada
5
9
Western
Europe
(1) includes South Africa and New Zealand. | (2) Includes China, Japan, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand and Vietnam.
22%
21%
23%
23%
W.Europe
Japan
Africa
E.Europe
China
L.America
Asia FE
(million t)
12
10
17%
(Kg/capita/year)
24
8
15%
12%
10%
14%
15
6
10%
10%
4
5%
15
12
7
0%
5
1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eucalyptus
Hardwood
Total
N.
West Japan Oceania East LatAm
America Europe
Europe
China
Africa
59