October Updates for Winter Forecast

October Updates for Winter Forecast

ENSO Current Conditions
ENSO IRI Plume September
ENSO and Solar Impacts on Wave 1 Events in Stratosphere

Current Solar conditions Sunspots and Solar Flux

ENSO and Solar Impacts on EP Flux
ENSO and Solar Impacts Learnings

ENSO Stratospheric Pathway and Impact on NAO

ENSO Stratospheric Pathway - Composite

ENSO - Current Conditions

ENSO at full tilt and gunning for the record books

ENSO IRI Plume September

Model predictions from both dynamical and statistical modelling confirm that
ENSO peaks over Winter 2015/16 and dissipates into Spring and Summer
2016.
Predicted DJF range indicates El Nino equalling top events ever recorded.

Year

DJF

JFM

1983

2.2

1.9

1998

2.2

1.8

1958

1.8

1.6

1973

1.8

1.2

1992

1.6

1.5

2010

1.6

1.3

1966

1.4

1.1

1987

1.2

1.3

1964

1.1

0.6

1969

1.1

1.1

2003

1.1

0.8

1995

0.8

ENSO IRI Plume

September
ENSO present throughout winter 2015/16
declining into the February and March
periods.
December > January peak period.
Basin Wide El Nino versus specifically
Central Pacific ( Modoki ) El Nino.
EP vs CP El Nino behave differently as to
impacts on Stratosphere.

ENSO and Solar Impacts on Wave 1 Events in Stratosphere

Solar Max double spike of Winter 2014 2015
in neutral to weak El Nino conditions limited
the impact of wave 1 events on the
stratosphere.
Studies have shown an anomalous warming in
the tropical upper stratosphere during Smax.
These anomalies in temperature change the
meridional temperature gradient and generate
westerly anomalies in the zonal mean zonal
wind field in the subtropics.

Significant westerly anomalies are observed in

the subtropics in January in the upper
stratosphere, moving downward and poleward
throughout the winter in agreement with the
mechanism proposed by Kodera and Kuroda
[2002].

Current Solar Conditions Sunspots and Solar Flux

Double-Spike of last season clearly evident on both cycles above.

ENSO and Solar Impacts on EP Flux

Both Smin and Smax cases show upward
and equatorward propagation in the
stratosphere. While in Smin the upward
propagation extends toward high altitudes,
this does not occur during Smax, in
agreement with the differences simulated in
refractive index in this region.
In addition, the magnitude of the EP flux is
larger in the middle to high latitudes in the
middle and upper stratosphere during
Smin.

ENSO and Solar Impacts on Stratosphere Learnings

When both warm ENSO events and Smax conditions coincide, the net effect in winter is not to increase the level of
perturbation of the polar stratosphere, as it would be if both forcings operated independently, but to inhibit the planetary
wave activity toward high latitudes to such an extent that the lower polar stratosphere becomes colder and the polar
vortex stronger. This reveals the nonlinear response of the polar stratosphere to ENSO/solar interactions.
General Conclusion:
Whenever a combination of two external forcing ENSO, QBO or solar variability, which act to perturb the polar
stratosphere operates simultaneously, they do not produce an additive response as expected when they operate
independently.
Impact on Analogs:
Additive weighting of extreme eQBO last season combined with ENSO Lite forcing created elevation of High Latitude
Blocking signatures. Care needed to weight composite years or blend to diminish additive impacts.

ENSO Stratospheric Pathway and Impact on NAO

Regardless of SSW events table from Butler et al
demonstrates that in El Nino years presence of both
negative temperature impact and negative NAO over winter.
ENSOs climate impacts over North America are largely
associated with the tropospheric pathway, whereas ENSOs
climate impacts over the North Atlantic and Eurasia are
greatly affected by the stratospheric pathway.
The stratospheric pathway, which we here define on the
basis of the occurrence of one or more sudden stratospheric
warmings in a given winter, and whose signature projects
very strongly on the North Atlantic Oscillation, is found to
be present 60% of the time during ENSO winters.

ENSO and Stratospheric Pathway - Composite

Why stratospheric monitoring is important?

Chart (a) canonical ENSO response.

Chart (b) demonstrates the impact on the
H500 plot of the extended blocking into
Norther Europe when stratospheric pathway
in existence.
Chart (c) illustrates the
standard ENSO tropospheric
response with PNA wave
train, illustrating winters
with no SSW event.