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Copyright 2003 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved.

2003

Table of Contents

Editorial

We Have Already Been to the Future

Paul J. Campbell . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393

Articles

Efficient Signal Transmission and Wavelet-Based Compression

Susan E. Kelly and James S. Walker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .395

UMAP Modules

The Spread of Forest Fires

Emily E. Puckette . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 417

ILAP Modules

Getting the Salt Out

Ethan Berkove, Thomas Hill, Scott Moor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435

Vehicle Emissions

Lei Yu and Don Small. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .451

Reviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .473

Annual Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479

Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483

Errata . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484

Editorial

393

Editorial

We Have Already Been to the Future

Paul J. Campbell

Mathematics and Computer Science

Beloit College

Beloit, WI 53511

campbell@beloit.edu

Every 10 years or so, the Mathematical Association of America publishes

recommendations for the undergraduate program in mathematics; long ago,

I was part of a panel that prepared such a report. The last report (1991) was

short; the mathematics community then was in the throes of the calculus wars,

computer science was coming on strong, and there was no longer common

agreement on what courses should be part of a mathematics major.

After four years of meetings, panel discussions, focus groups, conferences,

surveys of mathematics departments, consultation with partner disciplines,

and deliberations, there is a new curriculum guide [CUPM 2003].

The new report distinguishes itself by not focussing primarily on the program for mathematics majors but addressing the entire college-level mathematics curriculum, for all students, even those who take just one course.

The six recommendations of the report are not likely to be controversial,

and they are not accompanied by implementation suggestions. Here are paraphrases:

1. Understand and meet the needs of the students, and assess the effectiveness

of doing so.

2. Every course should have activities that promote analytical reasoning, problemsolving, communication skills, and mathematical habits of mind.

3. Every course should present various perspectives, employ examples and

applications from contemporary topics, and promote students ability to

apply the material.

4. Mathematical sciences departments should collaborate with other departments on courses, majors, research projects, and teaching.

c

The UMAP Journal 24 (4) (2003) 393394. Copyright

2003 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use

is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for prot or commercial

advantage and that copies bear this notice. Abstracting with credit is permitted, but copyrights

for components of this work owned by others than COMAP must be honored. To copy otherwise,

to republish, to post on servers, or to redistribute to lists requires prior permission from COMAP.

394

5. At every level of the curriculum, some courses should have activities that

teach the use of technology in solving problems and understanding mathematical ideas.

6. Faculty teaching and curricular efforts should be rewarded.

The report cites

changes:

declining numbers of bachelors degrees in mathematics (down 20%

since 1990 while total bachelors degrees rose 20%),

corresponding drops in enrollments in calculus and in advanced courses,

and

a high proportion (30%) of mathematics majors having a second or joint

major (i.e., they are interested primarily in something other than mathematics);

a nagging constant: Mathematics has extremely poor public relations. Students, as well as deans and faculty from other departments,view

mathematicians as insular and excessively inward looking;

mathematics departments as disconnected from other disciplines except

through a service component which they believe is accepted only reluctantly and executed without inspiration or effectiveness, and uninterested in adapting instruction to needs of non-majors; and

(crucially) mathematics itself as irrelevant for them (as in math is tough

and too much work anyway, so Ill do without it but keep my self-esteem

by deeming it irrelevant).

COMAP has been ahead of the curveor at least, the recommendations

are catching up with what COMAP has been doing all along. For more than

25 years, COMAP has played a major role in developing and disseminating

materials that promote the use of contemporary applications in teaching mathematics. ILAPs (see the two in this issue) in particular encourage collaboration

with faculty in other disciplines.

COMAP alone cannot change mathematical instruction or societal attitudes.

However, readers of this Journal need to direct the attention of their colleagues

(particularly those new to the profession) to the resources that COMAP offers

for implementing the new curricular recommendations.

References

Committee on the Undergraduate Program in Mathematics (CUPM). 2003. Undergraduate Programs and Courses in the Mathematical Sciences: CUPM Curriculum Guide 2004; http://www.maa.org/cupm/welcome.html . Washington,

DC: Mathematical Association of America.

395

and Wavelet-Based Compression

Susan E. Kelly

Department of Mathematics

University of WisconsinLa Crosse

La Crosse, WI 54601

kelly.susa@uwlax.edu

James S. Walker

Department of Mathematics

University of WisconsinEau Claire

Eau Claire, WI 54702

walkerjs@uwec.edu

Abstract

We describe how digital signals can be transmitted by analog carrier signals. This is

the method of pulse code modulation. Transmission by pulse code modulation is widely

used thanks to its abilities to withstand corruption by noise and to transmit multiple signals simultaneously. Digital signals can also be used to compress analog signals, thus

allowing for more rapid transmission, by employing wavelet series. We shall describe

how wavelet series are employed and compare them with Fourier series, showing that in

many instances wavelet series provide a better technique.

Introduction

A common method of transmitting digital signals is pulse code modulation (PCM).

A PCM signal is an analog signal that encodes the bits of the digital signal via a carrier

wave. The frequency of this carrier wave is modified in such a way that the bits can be

read off at the receiving end. This PCM method has a couple of beautiful features.

It can withstand large amounts of noise in the environment that typically corrupt

the signal by the time it reaches the receiver.

It allows for simultaneous transmission of several different messages using just one

PCM signal.

c

The UMAP Journal 24 (4) (2003) 395416. Copyright

2003 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted

without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that

copies bear this notice. Abstracting with credit is permitted, but copyrights for components of this work

owned by others than COMAP must be honored. To copy otherwise, to republish, to post on servers, or to

redistribute to lists requires prior permission from COMAP.

396

24.4 (2003)

An important benefit of digital signals is their ability to compress analog signals. Instead of transmitting the entire analog signal, it is more efficient to transmit numbersdigitally encodedthat describe how to reconstruct the signal at the

receiving end. A classical method for producing these numbers is to compute coefficients in a Fourier series. Recently, a whole new approach, called wavelet series,

has been developed. Coefficients of a wavelet series are computed, digitally encoded,

then transmitted in digital form. At the receiving end, these coefficients are used to

produce a wavelet series that provides an excellent approximation to the original signal. Wavelet series are often more efficientfewer coefficients are needed for a good

approximationthan Fourier series.

In the next section we shall describe the theory behind PCM signals and illustrate

their application to digital signal transmission. We then discuss Fourier series and

wavelet series and their application to compression of analog signals. The paper concludes with a brief survey of references where further details and extensions of these

ideas can be found.

The numerical data and graphs in this paper were produced with the free software

FAWAV [Walker 2000; 2002].

In this section we shall explain how an analog carrier signal can be modified to encode a sequence of bits. Suppose, for example, that we want to transmit the following

sequence of seven bits:

1 0 0 0 1 1 0.

(1)

In order to represent any of the bits having value 1, we use a signal of the form:

2

(2)

a different graph, using k = 3, = 25, and = 12. It is not hard to see that the

2

parameter k controls where the center of the amplitude factor e(tk) lies. Also, the

parameter controls how quickly this factor damps down toward 0 as t moves away

397

from k; in Figure 1b, is greater than in Figure 1a, hence the amplitude of the pulse

in Figure 1b damps down more quickly to 0.

The parameter in (2) determines the frequency of the factor cos 2t. Hence, the

cosine factors for the pulses shown in Figure 1 have frequencies of = 6 and = 12.

As you can see from the figure, the oscillations of the pulse in Figure 1b are faster

(twice faster, in fact) than the oscillations of the pulse in Figure 1a.

It is a standard task in electrical engineering to design a circuit having maximum

response centered on a desired frequency [Boylstad 1994; Floyd 2001]. For example,

if we want to send the bit 1 using the PCM signal shown in Figure 1b, then we should

design a receiver having an electric circuit element with maximum response at = 12

(Figure 2a). The response curve in Figure 2b would provide an excellent detector

for such a transmission of the bit 1. Likewise, if we wanted to use the PCM signal in

Figure 1a, then the maximum response for the receiver should be centered at = 6.

Figure 2. Response curves for electric circuits with maximum response at = 12. a. A broad response

curve, unsuitable for precise detection. b. A narrow, precisely tuned response curve, suitable for accurate

detection.

By combining both such circuit elements, we could even have a receiver that could

detect both bits, transmitted simultaneously. We shall return to this point later.

Now that we have discussed how to transmit a single bit having value 1, we can

turn to the question of how to transmit a sequence of bits having different values, as

in (1).

The method of transmitting a bit sequence, such as the one shown in (1), is to

simply add together signals of the type shown in (2). One frequency, 1 , is used for

transmitting bits of value 1, and a second frequency 0 = 1 is used for transmitting

bits of value 0.

For example, to transmit the sequence of bits 1 0 0 0 1 1 0, we use the following

PCM signal:

(t2)2

(t3)2

(t4)2

(t7)2

+e

+e

+e

f (t) = e

cos 20 t

2

2

2

+ e(t1) + e(t5) + e(t6) cos 21 t.

398

24.4 (2003)

with = 150, 0 = 232, and 1 = 280 (Figure 3a). In Figures 3 and 4, we illustrate

the scheme for decoding at the receiving end the seven bits from the PCM signal.

Figure 3. Filtering of PCM signal to process individual pulses. The filters w1 and w4 in b are used to cut

out the individual pulses at positions t = 1 and t = 4. The cutout pulses are shown in c and d.

by a filter (or window) function wk (t). This function wk (t) is equal to 1 in an interval

(k , k + ) centered at k, and decreases smoothly down to 0 for t < k 1 + and

t > k + 1 . See Figure 3b, where the filters w1 and w4 are shown. Multiplying

the PCM signal f by the filter wk produces a single pulse f (t)wk (t) that is nonzero

only within the interval [k 1 + , k + 1 ] centered at t = k. In Figures 3c and

3d, we show the pulses produced by multiplying the PCM signal f by w1 and w4 . The

multiplications produce single pulses centered at t = 1 and t = 4.

In Figure 4b, we show the whole set of filters {wk }8k=0 for detection of the pulses

at positions t = 0, 1, 2, . . . , 8. These filters satisfy

8

wk (t) = 1

(3)

k=0

for 0 t 8. Equation (3) implies that the PCM signal f (t) is equal to the sum of the

filter functions f (t)wk (t) over the interval [0, 8]. For decoding longer PCM signals,

(3) needs to be extended via a larger set of filters, say {wk }N

k=0 , satisfying

N

k=0

wk (t) = 1

(4)

399

Figure 4. PCM transmission of bit sequence 1 0 0 0 1 1 0. a. PCM signal. b. Filter bank used for detection.

c. Detection: [bottom] PCM signal, [top] magnitude of responses to filter bank output. Darker pixels

represent more intense response.

While (4) is a handy property, it is not absolutely necessary for the decoding

scheme to work. In fact, for decoding to work well it is sufficient that the following double inequality hold:

A

N

wk (t) B,

k=0

where A and B are positive constants. Often a value of A that is significantly larger

than 1 is used, producing an amplification of the PCM signal. Amplification is often

needed because PCM signals are significantly reduced in amplitude after transmission

over long distances.

In Figures 3c and 3d, the individual pulses are shown as having restricted domains:

[, 2 ] for w1 and [3 + , 5 ] for w4 . The domain of each pulse f (t)wk (t)

is restricted to facilitate processing by the frequency detector. Since f (t)wk (t) = 0

outside of the interval [k 1 + , k + 1 ], there is no need for the detector to process

this pulse outside of this interval.

In Figure 4c, we show the result of processing each isolated pulse by a frequency

detector. The PCM signal is shown at the bottom of the figure. The top of the figure

400

24.4 (2003)

that sweeps through a set of tuning frequencies {2, 4, 6, . . . , 1024}, just like a dial on a

radio. This set includes the frequencies 0 = 232 and 1 = 280 used for transmitting

bits of value 0 and 1, respectively. (The reason for displaying responses for a large

range of frequencies will be clearer after we discuss simultaneous transmission.) As

the reader can see, the bit sequence 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 is easily read off from the display of

the detector response.

The beauty of PCM signal transmission consists in its wealth of capabilities. In

particular, it provides a simple way of transmitting several messages simultaneously

using just one PCM signal. Furthermore, it allows for accurate recovering of signals

even after the addition of large amounts of noise. Sometimes the noise is so severe that

it will not be apparent from the graph of the signal that any transmission has occurred

at all; nothing but noise will be visible. Yet, upon decoding, the transmitted bits will

stand out clearly from the noise. We now provide examples illustrating these ideas.

0 1 0 1 0 0 1 can be transmitted simultaneously. The method consists of adding

together three PCM signals using three different values of 0 and 1 : We use

0 = 768 32, 1 = 768 + 32; 0 = 512 32, 1 = 512 + 32; and 0 = 256

32, 1 = 256 + 32, respectively. The resulting signal is shown at the bottom,

and its decoding at the top, of Figure 5. The three separate messages have been

decoded from a single PCM signal. With present technology, several thousand

separate messages can be transmitted with just one PCM signal [Catala 1997].

401

Example: We simulate the recovery of a bit sequence from a PCM signal that

has been severely corrupted by additive noise. In Figure 6a, we show an example of a PCM signal for transmitting the bit sequence 1 1 0 0 1 0 1. The frequencies 0 = 480 and 1 = 544 were used for transmitting the bits. We added

to this signal a simulation of Gaussian (normally distributed) random noise with

standard deviation 1. Gaussian noise is frequently used for modeling real-world

noise because the Central Limit Theorem implies that sums of noise from many

independent sources, over the course of transmission, yield a total noise that is

approximately Gaussian. A discrete realization of Gaussian noise with a standard deviation 1 is shown in Figure 6b, and a histogram of its values is shown

in Figure 6c. This histogram illustrates the Gaussian distribution underlying

the random noise. The addition of the noise to the PCM signal is shown in Figure 6d. Notice that it is impossible to tell from this noisy signal that any message

has been transmitted at all.

The decoding of the noisy PCM signal is shown in Figure 7. In Figure 7a,

we can see the responses to the bits in the PCM signal as prominent black

smudges, which stand out from a light grey background resulting from the noise.

These smudges are fairly easy for our eyes to decode as the bits 1 1 0 0 1 0 1

encoded by the original PCM signal. For electronic recognition, however, it is

better if frequency responses having magnitude below some threshold are set to

zero. In Figure 7b, we show such a thresholded response. The responses to the

bits are easily detectable electronically.

402

24.4 (2003)

Compressing Signals

We have seen how to transmit a signal if we can represent it as a sequence of

bits. In this section, we consider three different ways to obtain such a sequence, using

power series, Fourier series, and wavelet series. We shall see why wavelet series often

provide the best method.

Power Series

In calculus, we see how a function can be represented by a power series. The

Taylor series of a function f (t) at t = a is given by

f (n) (a)

(t a)n .

n!

n=0

n

M

If limM |f (t) n=0 f n!(a) (t a)n | = 0 for |t a| < R, we say that f is equal

to the sum of its Taylor series on the interval described by |t a| < R. For example,

the Taylor series for f (t) = sin t + 2 cos 2t centered about the origin is

sin t + 2 cos 2t =

cn t2n+1 + dn t2n ,

n=0

where

cn =

(1)n

(2n + 1)!

and

dn =

(1)n 22n+1

(2n)!

403

for all real t. Thus, to transmit the function f (t), one need know only the coefficients

cn and dn of this power series. These coefficients can be written as 16-bit binary codes.

These codes can then be strung together to give bit sequences.

Of course, in practice only a finite number of coefficients can be used; and when

we truncate the series by using only the first N terms, we introduce error in our representation. For each t-value, this error would be

f (n) (a)

n

(t

a)

.

n!

n=N

Figure 8 shows the graph of the function f (t) = sin t + 2 cos 2t. The Taylor series for

this function at t = 0 converges for all values of t; but when we only use a finite number of terms in the series, we obtain errors. The series works best near t = 0, the point

about which the series is being expanded. As we add more terms, the reconstructed

series resembles the function for a larger domain; but since we are adding terms of

the form tn , at some point the reconstructed function will increase or decrease without

bound. These ideas are illustrated in Figure 9.

Figure 9. Taylor series at t = 0 for sin(t) + 2 cos(2t). Left: 10 terms. Right: 50 terms. The original

function is shown in a lighter line.

t a. Still, even when the power series converges everywhere, a finite sum may not

represent the function well for values a distance away from t = a (Figure 9).

404

24.4 (2003)

Another problem with Taylor series in many applications is that computing the

derivatives needed for the coefficients is not always practical or possible. What we

need in practical applications is a series with more easily computed coefficients and

which requires fewer terms to give a good reconstruction of our original signal. We

shall see how Fourier series improve our work in both of these respects, and how to

compress data still further using wavelets.

Fourier Series

Another way to represent many functions was introduced by Jean B.J. Fourier in

the early nineteenth century. A Fourier series represents a periodic function in terms

of sine and cosine functions. For a 2W -periodic function f (t), its Fourier series is the

series in the following correspondence:

nt

nt

1

an cos

+ bn sin

,

f (t) a0 +

2

W

W

n=1

where the Fourier coefficients are defined to be

W

1

nt

an =

dt,

f (t) cos

W W

W

W

1

nt

bn =

f (t) sin

dt,

W W

W

for n = 0, 1, 2, ...;

for n = 1, 2, ....

Note that the 2-periodic signal, sin t + 2 cos 2t, from the previous section can be

captured exactly with only two nonzero Fourier coefficients!

A Fourier series can also be written in the complex-number form

f (t)

cn eint/W ,

n=

1

cn =

2W

f (t)eint/W dt.

One can view a Fourier series as a sum of terms having single frequencies, the amplitudes of those terms are the Fourier coefficients for the function. Fourier series are

expansions of functions using the basis functions

nt

nt

nt

, cos

1, sin

or

ei W

,

W

W

nZ

n=1

which are orthogonal bases of periodic functions on [W, W ].

405

the notion of

1

Fourier series. For piecewise smooth functions in L (R) = {f : |f (t)| dt < },

this can be done via the Fourier transform

f() =

f (t)ei2t dt

(5)

f (t) =

f()ei2t d.

The discrete form of Fourier series for analog signals is a consequence of the Sampling Theorem.

Theorem 1 (Sampling Theorem) If a continuous function f (t) L1 (R) is bandlimited, that is, f() is nonzero only on some interval [W, W ], then f (t) is completely

determined by a sequence of points spaced 1/2W units apart. Specifically,

f (t) =

n=

where sinc(t) =

n

sinc(2W t n),

2W

sin(t)

.

t

Discussions of Theorem 1 can be found in Higgins [1985], Kelly [2000], and Walker

[1988].

n

)}, to create

Theorem 1 allows us to use sample values of our function, {f ( 2W

a bit sequence. However, we are also interested in compressing our data by creating

as short a bit sequence as possible while still retaining the ability to generate a good

approximation to the original function. To explore this issue further, we investigate the

discrete Fourier transform.

In practice, our function f (t) will exist only for a finite duration of time. Therefore,

we can scale the function so that f (t) = 0 for t [0, 1]. We can then apply Theorem 1

to f() in place of f (t). Hence, f() can be recovered from the set {f(k)}kZ .

Using the definition of the Fourier transform in (5) and the fact that f (t) is zero

away from [0, 1], we obtain

f(k) =

f (t)ei2kt dt

= lim

N

1

n=0

n

N

ei2k N

1

.

N

This last sum comes from the definition of a Riemann integral. Thus, for N large,

f(k) Fk ,

(6)

406

24.4 (2003)

where

Fk =

N 1

1 n i2nk/N

f

e

N n=0

N

for all k Z

n N 1

is the N -point discrete Fourier transform (DFT) of the sequence fn = f N

.

n=0

Formula (6) shows how the DFT values are determined by our functions sample values. Now let us investigate how to recover our sample values, and hence our

function, from a finite number of DFT values. We begin with the finite sum

N

1

N

1

N

1

j

1

ei2jk/N ei2nk/N

Fk ei2nk/N =

f

N j=0

N

k=0

k=0

N 1 N 1

1 i2/N (jn)k

j

,

=

(e

)

f

N j=0

N

k=0

xN 1 = (x 1)(xN 1 + xN 2 + ... + x + 1)

N 1

for j n = 0, and thus k=0 [(ei2/N )(jn) ]k = 0 for j = n. From this, we obtain

N

1

k=0

Fk ei2nk/N = f

n

N

Thus to obtain all needed information about our function, we need to store either the

1

N 1

n

)}N

N samples {fn = f ( N

n=0 or the N DFT values {Fk }k=0 .

Because of the desire to compress our data, we hope to use only a fraction of the

DFT valuesthose with largest magnitudesand still get a good reconstructed function. Unfortunately, the magnitudes of the DFT values often damp down very slowly;

hence, we often need most, if not all, of these coefficients to obtain a good reconstruction of our original signal. We provide examples in the next subsection, when we

compare this DFT-based method of compression with wavelet-based compression.

Wavelets

In an age when we seek faster and sharper scanners for medical diagnosis, moreefficient computer storage techniques for larger amounts of computer data, and higherfidelity audio and visual signals with less information used, a more efficient way to

convert analog signals to digital ones is needed. Many people working in harmonic

analysis helped to provide the groundwork for the wavelet bases, which were introduced in the 1980s. Wavelets are beneficial in the areas just mentioned and in many

other applications because of the highly efficient ways a wavelet series can represent a

function. As we illustrate below, they often allow for a better-reproduced analog signal

using less data than with Fourier techniques.

407

basis.2 We will work with wavelet bases2for the

2

set of functions L (R) = {f : |f (t)| dt < }. A wavelet basis of L (R) is

a basis of functions generated using dilations by 2m and translations by n2m of a

single function. Here m and n are both integers. That is, if (t) is such a generating

function, then

m,n (t) = 2m/2 (2m t n)

m,nZ

is a wavelet basis of L2 (R). By a basis, we mean that for each f (t) L2 (R), the

following holds:

nm m,n (t)

f (t) =

mZ nZ

where

nm

f (t)m,n (t) dt

are the wavelet coefficients. We shall refer to as the generating wavelet for this

wavelet basis.

A related way to represent our function f (t) is with scaling functions generated

by a single function . For any integer M , the set {m,n }m<M,nZ is a basis of

a subset VM L2 (R). We can use (t) to generate another basis for VM , the set

{M,n (t) = 2M/2 (2M t n)}nZ . Since limM VM = L2 (R), it follows that for

M sufficiently large

nM M,n (t),

f (t)

nZ

where

nM

f (t)M,n (t)dt.

(7)

We refer to as the generating scaling function for these bases {M,n (t)}nZ . We

see below how both bases are used when we examine the fast wavelet transform.

There are an infinite number of wavelet bases for L2 (R). The Haar wavelet system is undoubtedly the simplest one. For the Haar system, (t) is the characteristic function [0,1) (t). The generator for the Haar wavelets is defined by (t) =

[0,1/2) (t) [1/2,1) (t). The space VM is the set of all L2 (R) functions which are

constant on each interval [k/2M , (k + 1)/2M ), for all integers k.

The generators and for the Haar system satisfy the following identities:

(t) = (2t) + (2t 1),

(t) = (2t) (2t 1).

408

24.4 (2003)

m1

2

yields

m

1 m

2m1 t = 2 2 (2m t) + 2 2 (2m t 1)

2

m1

m1

m

1 m

t = 2 2 (2m t) 2 2 (2m t 1) .

2 2 2

2

2

m1

2

From these last two identities, we obtain the following relations between Haar scaling

coefficients and wavelet coefficients:

1 m

+

km1 = 2k

2

1 m

km1 = 2k

2

1 m

2k+1

,

2

1 m

2k+1

.

2

(8)

These identities show that the (m 1)st level coefficients {km1 }, {km1 } are obtained from the mth level scaling coefficients {km }.

If we assume that N is a power of 2, say N = 2R , then the fact that is supported

on [0, 1) implies that when M = R the support of each function M,n (t) will only

cover one sample point n/N . Hence, in view of (7) we are justified in assuming that

nR = 2R/2 fn . Thus, the scaling coefficients at the Rth level can be set equal to a

constant times fn . In practice, the constant factor 2R/2 is dropped and we assume

that nR = fn for each n. The reason for dropping the constant factor 2R/2 is that

then (8), for m = R, defines an orthogonal matrix transformation on each pair of

adjacent sample values f2k and f2k+1 .

We have now shown that, given the scaling coefficients {nR = fn } at the Rth

level, we can use (8) repeatedly to derive all scaling coefficients {nm } and wavelet

coefficients {nm } for all levels m < R. Given the initial data

R R

R

0 , 1 , . . . , N

1 = (f0 , f1 , . . . , fN 1 ),

we apply (8) to get

R1

R1

0R1 , . . . , N/21

, 0R1 , . . . , N/21

.

yields

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 = 2 2, 2 2, 4 2, 8 2, 0, 0, 0, 4 2 .

R1

We may then repeat application of (8) on the scaling coefficients 0R1 , . . . , N/21

from these last data to get

R2

R2

R1

, 0R2 , . . . , N/41

, 0R1 , . . . , N/21

.

0R2 , . . . , N/41

In the example above, this second application of (8) yields

1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2

0 , 1 , 0 , 2 , 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 = 4, 12, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 4 2 .

409

R1

.

00 , 00 , 01 , 11 , . . . , N/21

For the example, we can perform one more application of (8), thereby obtaining

0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2

0 , 0 , 0 , 2 , 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 = 8 2, 4 2, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 4 2 .

m

Since (8) involves only six arithmetic operations on two adjacent coefficients 2k

m

and 2k+1

, it follows that there is a very fast computer algorithm, a fast wavelet transform WH , that performs the transformation:

WH

R1

(f0 , f1 , . . . , fN 1 )

00 , 00 , 01 , 11 , . . . , N/21

.

(9)

1

m

2k

= km1 +

2

1

m

= km1

2k+1

2

1

km1 ,

2

1

km1 .

2

Hence, the fast wavelet transform in (9) is invertible, by another very fast computer

1

:

algorithm, which we denote by WH

W 1

H

R1

(f0 , f1 , . . . , fN 1 ).

00 , 00 , 01 , 11 , . . . , N/21

Since (t) dt = 0 and is supported on the interval [0, 1), it follows that

when f (t) is constant on the interval [2m n, 2m (n + 1)), then nm will be zero. The

transformation

WH

8 2, 4 2, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 4 2

(2, 2, 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, 12)

illustrates this phenomenon in an elementary way. A more complex illustration is

shown in Figure 10, where in a we show 1,024 samples of the signal

f (t) =

5(sin 8t)(cos 4t)/5,

0 t < 1,

where

denotes the greatest integer function. The signal f (t) is a step function,

constant over several subintervals of [0, 1). The fast Haar transform of the sample data

(fn ) will produce a large number of zeros. Consequently, a good approximation of the

original signal can be obtained with just a fraction of the nonzero Haar coefficients.

1

Figure 10b shows the graph of WH

applied to the 195 highest magnitude Haar coefficients (all other coefficients set equal to zero). This reconstructed signal is a good

approximation of the original.

410

24.4 (2003)

One way to quantify the accuracy of the approximation is to use relative R.M.S. er1

N 1

ror. Given a discrete signal {fj }N

j=0 and its reconstruction {gj }j=0 , the relative

R.M.S. error is defined by

N 1

j=0 |fj gj |2

.

D(f, g) =

N 1

2

j=0 |fj |

For convenience, we refer to D(f, g) as rel. error. As a standard of good approximation, we require that a reconstructed signal approximate the original with a rel. error of

at most 102 . The reconstructed Haar signal in Figure 10b approximates the original

signal with the required rel. error of 102 . By comparison, we show a discrete Fourier

approximation in Figure 10c, using the top 195 highest magnitude DFT values. The

rel. error is then 2.6102 . This increase in rel. error is reflected in the ragged appearance of the Fourier approximation. In order to obtain a rel. error of 102 , the Fourier

approximation required 448 coefficients. For this step function signal, the Haar series

clearly outperforms the Fourier method in all respects.

Figure 10. a. Step function data, 1024 points. b. Haar series, 195 highest magnitude coefficients: rel. error

102 . c. Fourier approximation, 195 highest mag. coefficients: rel. error 2.6 102 . d. Coif18 series,

195 highest mag. coefficients: rel. error 3.2 102 .

The simple nature of the functions in the Haar system makes it easy to study the

structure of Haar wavelets. Their lack of smoothness, however, makes them a poor

basis for many applications. While they performed well in the step function example

just considered, this same example illustrates that Haar series produce step function

approximations for all types of signals. If our samples are taken from a smoothly

varying function, then the step function approximations provided by Haar series will

411

be unsuitable. In our work, we shall instead use Coiflets, which are wavelet bases of

I. Daubechies [1992] and R. Coifman (see Burrus et al. [1998]).

The Coiflets are an infinite class of wavelets for L2 (R). Similar to the Haar

wavelets, these wavelets have compact support: for each such system the generating

scaling function (t) and generating wavelet (t) are zero outside of certain intervals

of finite length. Also, just as with the Haar system, we have

(t) dt = 1 and

(t) dt = 0.

These last two integral conditions are true for all wavelets on L2 (R). The added

benefits of Coiflets are their smoothness and the vanishing moment conditions:

k

t (t)dt = 0 and

tk (t)dt = 0

For the remainder of our work, we shall use the Coiflets known as the Coif18

system. For the Coif18 system, both the generating scaling function (t) and the generating wavelet (t) are supported on the interval [6, 11]. Figure 11 shows graphs

of and . These Coif18 generating functions are twice continuously differentiable.

That implies that any partial sum for a Coif18 wavelet series will be twice continuously differentiable as well. Such smoothness for Coif18 partial sums will provide

better approximations for smoothly varying signals than the step function partial sums

provided by Haar series. Besides smoothness, the Coif18 generating wavelet (t) has

six vanishing moments,

tk (t) dt = 0, 0 k 5,

and the Coif18 generating scaling function (t) also has six vanishing moments,

tk (t) dt = 0, 1 k 6.

412

24.4 (2003)

can be seen when computing the wavelet coefficients. For instance, since (t) dt = 0, if f (t) is constant on the interval

[2m (n 6), 2m (n + 11)), then nm will be zero. Similarly, all of the vanishing

moments for imply that if f (t) is a polynomial of degree less than 6 on this same

interval, then nm will also be zero. Put another way, if f can be closely approximated

by a polynomial of degree less than 6 on an interval containing the support of m,n ,

then nm will be approximately zero. We shall see that these facts are useful for compressing signals. The vanishing of the moments of the generating scaling function is

important for making the approximation nR 2R/2 fn which we discussed above.

This approximation is much better justified for Coif18 scaling functions than for Haar

scaling functions (see Resnikoff and Wells [1998] for more details), and it justifies

replacing (nR ) by the signal samples (fn ).

With this background for the Coif18 system, we can now describe how Coiflets

allow us to compress signals. As with the Haar wavelet system, the Coif18 system

allows for the computation of {nm1 } and {nm1 } by applying an orthogonal transformation to a small number (18, to be precise) of adjacent values of {nm }. (The small

number of adjacent values needed is another advantage of using Coif18 wavelets.) Iterating thisprocess R times

yields a fast wavelet transform WC , which converts the

R

R

initial data 0 , . . . , N 1 = (f0 , . . . , fN 1 ) as follows:

W

C

R1

(00 , 00 , 01 , 11 , . . . , N/21

).

(f0 , f1 , . . . , fN 1 )

This transformation WC has a fast inverse WC1 , as well (see Walker [1997; 1999]

for more details). Since the Coif18 wavelet has six vanishing moments, many of the

wavelet coefficients nm are often zero or very small. This will give us our desired

compression. We retain only coefficients that have significant size; all other coefficients are set to zero and are not transmitted. These high-magnitude coefficients will

give us our binary codes for transmission. Binary encoding only a small set of highmagnitude coefficients will often produce a set of data much smaller in size than the N

original signal values. At the receiving end, we use only these high-magnitude coefficients, along with zeros inserted for the coefficients we have dropped, and apply WC1

to reconstruct a wavelet series approximation to our signal.

We can illustrate such compression with the alternating frequency sine function

4

k=1

with c = 0.2, over the interval [0, 2) using 16,384 sample points (Figure 12a). For

convenience, the function is once again discontinuous; but there also exist continuous

functions with sharp transitions that would pass through these same sampled data. To

obtain a rel. error of 102 , the Coif18 wavelet requires only 301 coefficients (Figure 12b), while the Fourier approximation requires 2,674 (Figure 13b). The errors

pointed out in the Fourier case (Figure 13b) are not seen in the wavelet reconstruction (Figure 12b). Using the same number of terms (310) for the Fourier approximation as for the wavelet series produces a much poorer reconstruction: Its rel. error is

413

Figure 12. a. Original signal. b. Coif18 wavelet series with 310 terms.

Figure 13. a. Fourier approximation with 301 terms for signal in Figure 12a. b. Fourier approximation

with 2,674 terms. The arrows indicate some prominent defects in the Fourier approximation.

414

24.4 (2003)

8.5102 , which is 8.5 times as large as the rel. error for the 301-term Coif18 wavelet

series. Considering that the total number of signal values is 16,384, the 301 nonzero

coefficients for the Coif18 reconstruction represents a significant compression of the

signal.

The two compression examples in this section illustrate some of the variety of signal data that can be compressed using wavelets. For step-function data, which are

locally constant, the Haar wavelets performed wellbetter than a Fourier approximation, and also better than Coif18 wavelets (compare Figures 10b and 10d). This is due

to the step nature of the Haar system. For more smoothly varying data, as in samples

from speech and music, the Coif18 wavelets give excellent compression, clearly superior to Fourier approximations. This was illustrated with a discretely sampled signal

with sharp transitions.

We have seen how wavelets can often allow us to compress our data quite well.

Let us carefully reexamine the properties of wavelets that allowed us to do this. By the

definition of a wavelet, the basis functions m,n (t) = 2m/2 (2m t n) can zoom in

on particular areas of a signal. As m increases, the supports of these basis functions

decrease in size, and varying n allows us to move along to particular areas to examine

the signal. This allows the wavelet coefficients nm = f (t)m,n (t) dt to pick

up information about local behaviors of the function f (t). The vanishing moment

conditions help us to compress the data from smoothly varying signals because many

of the wavelet coefficients nm are either zero or very small. For different types of

signals, different wavelet systems can be employed. In particular, for step functions,

the Haar wavelet system performs very well. While for smoother functions, a smoother

wavelet system like Coif18 works much better. The Coif18 system combines a large

number of vanishing moments for both wavelets and scaling functions (hence good

compression) with a relatively small support (thus allowing for rapid computation).

The Coif18 system is just one of many wavelet systems that can be employed for

compression. Some compression schemes make use of multiple systems, choosing

the best system for a given signal (and transmitting a small amount of overhead to

the receiver to identify which system was used). Besides wavelet series, localized

Fourier seriesFourier expansions restricted to smooth time-windowed portions of

the signalhave been found to be especially effective for compressing audio signals

[Malvar 1992]. More details on data compression can be found in Mallat [1998],

Vetterli and Kovacevic [1995], and Walker [1999].

Conclusion

We have seen how a PCM signal can carry the bits of a digital signal by carrying

the 1s of a binary code with a different frequency than the 0s. By using more frequencies, this PCM signal can carry large numbers of digital signals simultaneously. PCM

signals are also highly resistant to corruption by additive noise.

We next examined three ways to represent a function with such digital codes. The

codes came from the coefficients for a discrete Fourier transform, a discrete Haar

wavelet series, and a discrete Coif18 wavelet series. We saw how wavelets allowed

415

Several of the references would be appropriate reading for undergraduate students.

Students may find Benson [1993] interesting if they wish to read how several radio

signals can be transmitted simultaneously. Walker [1988] and Kelly [2000] give the

reader more of the theory and applications of Fourier series. Finally, the reader may

wish to learn more about wavelets and their uses by consulting Walker [2000; 2002],

Frazier [1999], Walker [1999], and Walker [1997].

References

Boylstad, R.L. 1994. Introductory Circuit Analysis. 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ:

Prentice-Hall,

Benson, C. 1993. How to tune a radio. In Applications of Calculus, vol. 3: Resources

for Calculus, edited by Philip D. Straffin, 126134. Washington, DC: Mathematical Association of America.

Burrus, C.S., R.H. Gopinath, and H. Guo. 1998. Introduction to Wavelets and Wavelet

Transforms, A Primer. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

Catala, P. (1997). Pulse code modulation. Chap. 23 of The Communications Handbook. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.

Daubechies. I. 1988. Orthonormal bases of compactly supported wavelets. Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 51: 909996.

. 1992. Ten Lectures on Wavelets. Philadelphia, PA: SIAM.

Floyd, T.L. 2001. Electronics Fundamentals. 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: PrenticeHall.

Frazier, M. 1999. An Introduction to Wavelets through Linear Algebra. New York:

Springer-Verlag.

Higgins, J.R. 1985. Five short stories about the cardinal series. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, New Series 12: 4589.

Kelly, S. 2000. Using the Shannon sampling theorem to design compact discs. The

UMAP Journal 21(2): 157166.

Mallat, S. 1988. Multiresolution approximations and wavelet orthonormal bases of

L2 (R). Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 315(1): 6987.

. 1998. A Wavelet Tour of Signal Processing. New York: Academic Press.

Malvar, H.S. 1992. Signal Processing with Lapped Transforms. Norwood, MA: Artech

House.

Resnikoff, H.L., and R.O. Wells. 1998. Wavelet Analysis. The Scalable Structure of

Information. New York: Springer-Verlag.

416

24.4 (2003)

Vetterli, M., and J. Kovacevic. 1995. Wavelets and Subband Coding. Englewood

Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

Walker, J. 1988. Fourier Analysis. New York: Oxford University Press.

. 1996. Fast Fourier Transforms. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.

. 1997. Fourier analysis and wavelet analysis. Notices of the American

Mathematical Society, 44(6): 658670.

. 1999. A Primer on Wavelets and their Scientific Applications. Boca Raton,

FL: CRC Press.

. 2000, 2002. FAWAV: A Fourier/Wavelet Analyzer. Freeware for Windows.

http://www.uwec.edu/walkerjs/ .

Susan Kelly received her Ph.D. in mathematics

in 1992 from Washington University in St. Louis,

with a thesis in wavelet theory under Richard Rochberg

and Mitchell Taibleson. She is a professor at the

University of WisconsinLa Crosse. Her hobbies

include watercolor and oil painting as well as skiing.

She enjoys spending time with her husband and her

son Kyle.

James S. Walker received his B.S. from the State University of New York at Buffalo (1975), his M.S. from the

University of Illinois at UrbanaChampaign (1977), and his

D.A. from the University of IllinoisChicago (1982). He is

a professor of mathematics at the University of Wisconsin

Eau Claire. He has published papers on Fourier analysis,

complex variables, and wavelet theory. He is the author of

three books on Fourier analysis, FFTs, and wavelet analysis.

Modules in

Undergraduate

Mathematics

and Its

Applications

The Spread of

Forest Fires

Emily E. Puckette

Published in

cooperation with

The Society for

Industrial and

Applied Mathematics,

The Mathematical

Association of America,

The National Council

of Teachers of

Mathematics,

The American

Mathematical

Association of

Two-Year Colleges,

The Institute for

Operations Research and

the Management

Sciences, and

The American

Statistical Association.

COMAP, Inc., Suite 210, 57 Bedford Street, Lexington, MA 02420 (781) 8627878

418

24.4 (2003)

TITLE:

AUTHOR:

Emily E. Puckette

Department of Mathematics and Computer Science

Sewanee: The University of the South

735 University Ave.

Sewanee, TN 37383-1000

eep@sewanee.edu

MATHEMATICAL FIELD:

Probability, Calculus

APPLICATION FIELD:

Biology, Forestry

TARGET AUDIENCE:

second-semester calculus.

ABSTRACT:

spread of a forest re. We examine the conditions for

which the re will either die out or spread indenitely,

identifying and bounding a critical value for the probability of transmission of the re to an immediately adjacent location.

PREREQUISITES:

Summation of geometric series, elementary probability, intuitive limits; for the Appendix, derivatives and

limits of rational functions.

c

Copyright

2003 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use

is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for prot or commercial

advantage and that copies bear this notice. Abstracting with credit is permitted, but copyrights

for components of this work owned by others than COMAP must be honored. To copy otherwise,

to republish, to post on servers, or to redistribute to lists requires prior permission from COMAP.

(800) 77-COMAP = (800) 772-6627, or (781) 862-7878; http://www.comap.com

419

Emily E. Puckette

Dept. of Mathematics and Computer Science

Sewanee: The University of the South

735 University Ave.

Sewanee, TN 37383-1000

eep@sewanee.edu

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6. CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9. APPENDIX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

420

24.4 (2003)

MATHEMATICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS (UMAP) PROJECT

The goal of UMAP is to develop, through a community of users and developers, a system of instructional modules in undergraduate mathematics and

its applications, to be used to supplement existing courses and from which

complete courses may eventually be built.

The Project was guided by a National Advisory Board of mathematicians,

scientists, and educators. UMAP was funded by a grant from the National

Science Foundation and now is supported by the Consortium for Mathematics and Its Applications (COMAP), Inc., a nonprot corporation engaged in

research and development in mathematics education.

Paul J. Campbell

Solomon Garfunkel

Editor

Executive Director, COMAP

1.

421

Introduction

What do mathematicians do, exactly?

Is there any thing new going on in mathematics?

Such questions are exciting, because students asking them are curious about

mathematics, and frustrating, because the students often do not have enough

background in mathematics to tackle a research problem. The challenge to the

instructor is to respond with an easily understood research question whose

solution is within the grasp of a freshman or sophomore. An added bonus

would be to convey the creative mix of ideas that is often crucial in a solution.

The project that follows is one possible response. It begins with a very

approachable model for the spread of a forest re. The question of interest is

whether the re will die out on its own, and this question leads to a hunt for a

threshold value for the probability of further transmission of the re. With use

of the formula for the sum of a geometric series plus a minimal amount of probability, a partial answer is attainable: some bounds on the critical probability

of spread of the re.

The main ideas in this Module have been used

in senior comprehensive projects,

as a basis for talks given to undergraduates with a second-semester calculus

background, and

as an independent study for a motivated sophomore.

As organized here, the Module is written as an independent project for a student

or a group of students. The time frame for the project is 24 weeks.

2.

(x, y), x, y Z, is the site of a tree. The tree at the origin is struck by lightning

and set ablaze. From any tree, the re can spread in one step to any one of its

four nearest neighbors, i.e., to any of the trees at (1, 0), (0, 1), (1, 0) or (0, 1),

independent of one another, each with transmission probability p, 0 p 1.

We keep track of the spread of the re using a discrete time clock. Thus,

at time n = 0, the tree at the origin is on re and all other trees in the forest

are unburnt. At time n = 1, the re may have spread to one or more nearest

neighbors of the tree at the origin. Also at time n = 1, the tree at the origin

is completely burnt and therefore cannot be set on re again nor transmit re

further.

422

n, n = 0, 1, 2, . . . The three possible states for a tree are U (unburnt), F (on re),

and B (burnt). The function Sn (X) gives the state of the tree at site X at time n.

Exercise

1. The spread of the re is determined by the following rules. Translate them

into words; for example, Sn (X) = B translates to the tree at site X at time

n is burnt.

a) If Sn (X) = B, then Sn+1 (X) = B.

b) If Sn (X) = F , then Sn+1 (X) = B.

c) If Sn (X) = U , then Sn+1 (X) can be either U or F , depending on the

state of the neighboring trees and the transmission of the re.

Case c) requires some exploration. A burning tree spreads the re to neighboring trees independently of other burning trees. If events A and B are independent, then the probability that both events A and B occur, P (AB), is equal

to P (A) P (B), the product of the probabilities of each separate event. In other

words, the proportion of the time that event A occurs is the same when event

B occurs as when B does not occur.

With this precise denition of independence, consider the unburnt tree at

site X with neighboring trees at X1 , X2 , X3 , and X4 , as in Figure 1.

X2

X3

X1

X4

Figure 1. An unburnt tree at X with neighboring trees.

Exercises

2. If Sn (X1 ) = F , Sn (X2 ) = F , Sn (X3 ) = B, and Sn (X4 ) = U , the tree at X

will remain unburnt at time n + 1 only if the re at sites X1 and X2 do not

spread to X. The probability of not spreading the re from a burning tree

to a neighbor is 1 p.

Let A be the event that site X1 s re does not spread to site X, and

let B be the event that site X2 s re does not spread to site X. Using the

423

independence of the re spread from site to site, the probability that site X

remains in state U at time n + 1 is

P (A B) = P (A) P (B) = (1 p)2 .

What is the probability that the site X switches to state F at time n + 1?

That is, what is the probability that the tree at X is on re at time n + 1?

3. Consider this assignment of states to sites: Sn (X1 ) = F , Sn (X2 ) = B,

Sn (X3 ) = F , and Sn (X4 ) = F .

a) If Sn (X) = U , what is the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U ?

b) Again, if Sn (X) = U , what is the probability that Sn+1 (X) = F ?

4. Consider the case where at time n exactly i neighboring trees are on re,

i = 0, 1, . . . , 4.

a) If Sn (X) = U , what is the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U ?

b) Again, if Sn (X) = U , what is the probability that Sn+1 (X) = F ?

3.

p. If p is small, the re will die out eventually. If p is large, then there is some

chance that the re will spread innitely, that is, arbitrarily far from the initial

lightning strike.

The Big Question: How large does p have to be for there to be a chance for

indenite spread of the re?

Essentially, we are hunting for a threshold value or critical value pc . For p

[0, pc ), the forest re will die out. For p (pc , 1], the re has a chance of innite

spread. However, unless p = 1, it is not certain that there will be innite spread

of the re.

The model plays out differently depending on the value of p; the value

pc marks a phase transition in the model. Phase transitions abound in natural

phenomena, too, as in the change of water from a liquid state to a solid state,

which (for pure water at sea level) occurs at a critical temperature tc = 0 C.

Exercise

5. Computer simulation can provide some insight into the critical value pc .

Write a computer program that starts with one tree burning at the center of

a 100 100 lattice and shows the states of the trees at time n using the rules

for spread established in the previous section. Explore the re spread with

different values of the transmission probability p; to begin, test p = 0.2,

p = 0.4, p = 0.6, and p = 0.8. Look at the states of the entire lattice at

3

424

various times, for example, at n = 20, n = 40, and n = 60, to see how the

re is spreading over time. For each value of p, run the program several

times to observe any trends in how the re spreads. You may also want to

increase the size of the lattice to explore further. What do you notice about

the spread of the re? For which values of p does the re appear to die out?

For which values does the re seem to continue spreading?

For convenience, let E be the event that the re spreads innitely. Hence

for p < pc , the probability of E is 0, while if p > pc , the probability of E is

greater than 0. The critical probability is therefore dened to be

pc = inf{p | P (E ) > 0}

where inf denotes the greatest lower bound of the set.

4.

spreads from the origin to another site at a nite distance away. As the re

spreads across the lattice, it creates burnt paths through the forest. We consider

one such path.

Exercises

6. a) Plot all of the Z2 lattice points (x, y) where 4 x, y 4. At time n = 0,

the tree at the origin is on re. Suppose that the re spreads to one of the

neighboring trees. Pick one neighboring tree, at site X, say. How many

options are there for choice of X? On your plot, draw the rst step of

the res path from the origin to X.

b) For the next step in the spread of the re, pick a tree neighboring X; call

the site Y . How many options are there for choice of Y ? On your plot,

draw the second step of the res spread.

c) For the third step, pick a tree neighboring Y . How many options are

there? On your plot, draw the next step of the res spread.

Because the re cannot revisit a burnt tree, it maps out a self-avoiding path,

meaning that the path cannot return to a site it has already visited.

Exercise

7. a) How many self-avoiding paths with a length of 2 steps are there on this

lattice? How many with three steps?

b) Are there 4 3 3 3 self-avoiding paths with a length of 4 steps? Sketch

several paths and think about the question.

425

of sites to move to at time n = 4. For example, suppose that the rst step from

the origin is east, the second step is north, and the third step is west. Then the

fourth step must be either north or west.

Counting the number of self-avoiding paths with n steps is a difcult problem, but we can at least establish an upper bound on the number of such paths:

Number of self-avoiding paths of n steps 4 3n1 .

Then the probability that the re spreads along a self-avoiding path of n steps

is

(Number of n-step self-avoiding paths)(Probability of re spread n times)

= (Number of self-avoiding paths of n steps) pn (4 3n1 )pn .

Now consider innite spread of the re; re must spread along a selfavoiding path of innite length. So let us consider re spreading along a

self-avoiding path with a large length.

Let Q be the probability of re spreading along a self-avoiding path with N

or more steps, where N is large. Then

Q = P (re spreading along a self-avoiding path of length N )

P (re spreading along a self-avoiding path of length n)

n=N

(4 3n1 )pn

n=N

= 4p

(3p)n1 .

n=N

Exercise

8. If p < 13 , then 0 3p < 1, and the sum in Q is the tail of a convergent

geometric series. Use the closed form ofthe series to simplify the upper

for 1 < x < 1 and a R. For more assistance, see the Appendix.

For innite spread of the forest re, we are interested in the limiting probability of re spreading along a self-avoiding path of length N , that is, the limit

of Q as N .

Exercises

9. Assume that p < 13 . Use the simplied upper bound of Q to nd an upper

bound for limN Q.

426

P (E ) = lim Q,

N

is 0. What then can be said about the value of the critical probability pc ?

5.

from a set I of M initial adjacent sites in a row: (0, 0), (1, 0), (2, 0), . . . , (M, 0).

The re spreads along self-avoiding paths; so let J be the set of sites X such

that there is a self-avoiding path from a site in I to X. That is, J consists of all

sites that are burned by the res spread; note that I J. See Figure 2 for an

illustration.

0

M

- site in J

Figure 2. Illustration of a re starting from a row of trees from 0 to M .

Y = (x, y), then the unit square has vertices at (x 12 , y 12 ). Let A be the

region of the plane covered by these squares, and let A have boundary B. See

Figure 3 for an illustration.

If there is indeed a boundary around all the sites that are burnt, then the

re did not spread innitely from the initial sites. So our attention turns to the

probability of the existence of such a boundary B.

In constructing the unit squares around sites in J, we have effectively created

a dual lattice W2 , where

W2 = (u, v) : u = x + 12 , v = y + 12 for all (x, y) Z2 .

6

0

M

427

boundary B

Figure 3. The boundary B of the region A corresponding to the re in Figure 2.

The spread of the re in the Z2 lattice induces a conguration in the W2

lattice in the following way. In the Z2 lattice, let X and Y be neighboring sites.

We call the segment of the lattice between the sites an edge. If the re has spread

from one site to a neighboring site, we say the edge is open; otherwise, the edge

is closed. Thus, an edge in the Z2 lattice is open with probability p, and as the

model runs its course, each edge in Z2 is classied as either open or closed.

Every edge in the Z2 lattice crosses an edge in the W2 lattice. If the edge

is open in Z2 , the corresponding edge is declared to be open in the W2 lattice.

In our example (Figure 3), the edge in Z2 from the origin to the point (0, 1) is

open because the re has spread from the origin to this site. Therefore, the edge

in W2 from ( 12 , 12 ) to ( 12 , 12 ) is also open. Thus a conguration in W2 of open

and closed edges is determined by the conguration of open and closed edges

in Z2 .

The boundary B consists of closed edges in W2 . Furthermore, B is a selfavoiding path until it closes the loop around the burnt area in its last step.

Exercises

11. What is the smallest possible number N of edges in B? Consider the minimum size of the set J, and determine the minimum number of edges in W2

that would be required to bound J.

12. Consider a boundary B of some length k, where k N ; it must be a path

formed of k closed edges. What is the probability that all k edges are closed?

428

path, the question is difcult to answer precisely. However, we can establish

an upper bound for the number of boundaries of length k. Since the initial set

I is on the horizontal axis of Z2 , a boundary of length k must contain a vertical

edge between W2 lattice points of the form (j + 12 , 12 ) and (j + 12 , 12 ) for some

integer j where 0 j < k. Thus, there are at most k options for an edge of this

form; and moving in a self-avoiding fashion from that edge onward, there are

at most 3k1 options for the following k 1 steps. Therefore, the number of

boundaries of length k is less than or equal to k 3k1 .

Let R be the probability of the existence of a closed boundary B around

set J. Then we have

R = P (closed boundary B exists)

P (closed boundary B of length k exists)

=

k=N

k=N

= (1 p)

k[3(1 p)]k1 ,

k=N

Exercise

sum is the tail of a convergent series.

13. If p > 23 , then 0 3(1 p) < 1, and the

(The ratio test shows that the series k=1 k[3(1 p)]k1 is convergent, and

Exercise A2 calculates what it converges to; but here we are concerned just

with the tail of the series, the sum from the N th term on.) What happens to

R if N is increased? Hint: See Exercise A2 in the Appendix.

Assume that p > 23 . If N = 2M + 4 is large enough, then R < 1. But if the

probability of the existence of a closed boundary B around set J is less than 1,

then the probability of no closed boundary around set J is greater than 0. That

implies that at least one of the trees in the initial set I was the starting point

of an innite open self-avoiding path. Since it is equally likely for any one of

these trees to be the starting point of such a path, we have

429

= P (set I generates innite re spread)

P innite open self-avoiding path starting at (0,0) exists

+ P innite open self-avoiding path starting at (1,0) exists

+ ...

+ P innite open self-avoiding path starting at (M,0) exists

= (M + 1) P innite open self-avoiding path starting at (0,0) exists

= (M + 1) P (E ).

Exercise

14. So we can conclude that if p > 23 , then the probability of innite re spread

P (E ) is greater than 0. What then can be said about the value of the critical

probability pc ?

6.

Conclusions

We now have bounds on the critical probability pc :

1

2

pc .

3

3

You should review your computer simulation results to see how those results

agree. The next mathematical step would be to improve the techniques so as

to narrow the bounds of pc , and ultimately nd the exact value of the critical

probability. The proof that

pc actually equals

1

2

was rst published by Kesten [1980], and other proofs have subsequently appeared (e.g., Grimmett [1989]).

7.

There are other interesting questions besides innite spread. For example,

for transmission probabilities below the critical probability, we know that the

re will die out.

How far will it spread on average before it dies out?

What can be determined about the shape of the burnt region? Is it circular,

or does it exhibit some other pattern?

9

430

We could explore variations on the model. The lattice for the model is

square, with each tree having four nearest neighbors. However, we could also

model using a lattice that is triangular or hexagonal, with each tree having three

or six nearest neighbors. How can the methods for nding upper and lower

bounds of pc be adjusted for a different lattice? Do the bounds change?

In the model, we held the transmission probability p xed. However, it is

reasonable to consider that the probability of spread may vary. In particular,

a constant wind would make it more likely for a re to spread in one direction. Consider a constant wind from the south that makes the probability of

re spreading to the north more likely than toward any other direction. Use

computer simulations to explore this with the probability of northward spread

above the threshold value pc = 12 and the probability of eastern, western and

southern spread below the threshold value. What do you predict will happen?

Another adjustment is to consider variable winds. A wind coming from

the south with variable speed can be worked into the computer model as a

random choice from several transmission probability values; the stronger the

wind, the higher the probability of spread to the north. One could make it

more complicated by having random winds from any direction at any time, or

stronger winds as the re grows.

There are many other models with similar structures and questions. For

example, the model for the spread of forest re can also be used to study the

spread through a population of an immunity-granting illness such as measles

or chicken pox (e.g., Durrett [1988a]). A closely related model is the percolation

model. The model is set on the Z2 lattice with edges between sites open with

probability p, and a central question is whether the origin is in an innite open

cluster. That is, is there is an open path for uid (such as water or oil) to move

from the origin to innity?

This project is an entry point into the study of interacting particle systems

and cellular automata. Those models all follow simple rules to determine the

states of sites, and yet they produce complex behaviors for study. Consider the

most famous cellular automaton of all, John Conways Game of Life. In this

model, sites have only two states, alive and dead, and at each time step, sites

change states depending on the states of their nearest neighbors. Even with

these simplest of transition rules, interesting evolutions occur (see Gardner

[1970; 1983] and computer implementations such as Schaffhauser [1996]).

10

8.

431

1. a) If the tree at site X at time n is burnt, then the tree at that site is burnt at

the following time n + 1.

b) If the tree at site X at time n is on re, then the tree at that site is burnt

at the following time n + 1.

c) If the tree at site X at time n is unburnt, then the tree at that site is either

unburnt or on re at the following time n + 1.

2. The probability that the tree at site X is on re at time n + 1 is 1 (1 p)2 .

3. a) If Sn (X) = U , the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U is (1 p)3 .

b) If Sn (X) = U , the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U is 1 (1 p)3 .

4. a) If Sn (X) = U , the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U is (1 p)i .

b) If Sn (X) = U , the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U is 1 (1 p)i .

6. a) There are 4 options for the choice of X.

b) There are 3 options for the choice of Y .

c) There are 3 options for the third step.

7. There are 4 3 = 12 self-avoiding paths of length 2 and 4 3 3 = 36 selfavoiding paths of length 3.

a) There are fewer than 4 3 3 3 self-avoiding paths of length 4.

8. Let x = 3p. Then Q 4p

(3p)n1 = 4p

n=N

(3p)N 1

.

1 3p

(3p)N 1

= 0.

N 1 3p

9. lim Q 4p lim

N

11. The minimum set is I itself, and for this set, N = 2(M + 1) + 2 = 2M + 4.

12. The probability of k edges being closed is (1 p)k by independence.

13. If N is increased, the probability R decreases.

14. Since pc = inf{p : P (E ) > 0}, pc cannot be greater than 23 . Thus pc 23 .

11

432

9.

Appendix

We give more details on the geometric series used in several exercises. Let

x be a real number. For some integer M , dene the sum SM to be

2

SM = 1 + x + x + x + + x

M

xk .

k=0

Exercises

A1. Consider the derivative of SM :

M

dSM

= 0 + 1 + 2x + 3x2 + + M xM 1 =

n xn1 .

dx

n=1

the derivative:

d

1 xM +1

dSM

=

= .

dx

dx

1x

dSM

. Does this limit exist for 1 < x < 1?

M dx

Let S = lim

A2. For 1 < x < 1, let N = M + 1 and dene the tail of the series

TN

d SM

=

=S

n xn1 .

dx

n=N

Solutions

A1.

A2.

dSM

(M + 1)xM (1 x) + (1 xM +1 )

SM

(M + 1)xM

=

+

.

=

dx

(1 x)2

1x

1x

For 1 < x < 1, the limit does exist, and S = 1/(1 x)2 .

lim TN = 0.

12

433

References

Durrett, R. 1988a. Crabgrass, measles, and gypsy moths: An introduction to

interacting particle systems. Mathematical Intelligencer 10: 3747.

. 1988b. Lecture Notes on Particle Systems and Percolation. CA: Wadsworth

and Brooks/Cole.

Gardner, Martin. 1970. The fantastic combinations of John Conways new solitaire game Life. Scientic American 223 (4): 120ff. 1983. Reprinted with

substantial additional commentary in Wheels, Life and Other Mathematical

Amusements, 214257. NY: W.H. Freeman.

Grimmett, G. 1989. Percolation. NY: Springer-Verlag.

Kesten, H. 1980. The critical probability of bond percolation on the square

lattice equals 12 . Communications in Mathematical Physics 74: 4159.

Liggett, T.M. 1985. Interacting Particle Systems. NY: Springer-Verlag.

Schaffhauser, Christoph. 1996. Game of Life. Version 1.7.0. Computer program

for PowerPC and Motorola 680x0 Macintosh computers. Available at http:

//www.datacomm.ch/darkeagl/ .

Emily Puckette is an associate professor of

mathematics at the University of the South in Sewanee, TN. She earned her B.A. in mathematics

at Smith College and her Ph.D. at Duke University, focusing on critical probabilities and random walks. One of her favorite extracurricular

activities is to go walking in the woods, pondering probabilities.

13

434

14

N T E R D I S C I P L I N A R Y

I V E L Y

P P L I C A T I O N S

435

R O J E C T

AUTHORS:

Ethan Berkove

(Mathematics)

berkovee@lafayette.edu

Thomas Hill

(Mathematics)

MATHEMATICS CLASSIFICATIONS:

Calculus, Differential Equations

Scott Moor

(Chemical Engineering)

DISCIPLINARY CLASSIFICATIONS:

Chemistry, Engineering

Lafayette College

Easton, PA 18042

PREREQUISITE SKILLS:

1. Modeling with an ordinary differential equation with initial

condition.

2. Sketching a solution to a differential equation on its direction

field.

3. Solving an ordinary differential equation by separation of variables.

CONTENTS

1. Setting the Scene

2. Your Job

3. Part 1: Numerical and

Graphical Analyses

4. Part 2: Let's Get Explicit

5. Part 3: What Do You

Recommend?

References

Sample Solution

Notes for the Instructor

About the Authors

Osmotic pressure, permeability, desalination.

COMPUTING REQUIREMENT:

A program to plot direction fields. (A Mathematica program is

available from the authors.)

The UMAP Journal 24 (4) 435-449. Copyright 2003 by COMAP, Inc. All rights

reserved. Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or

distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice.

Abstracting with credit is permitted, but copyrights for components of this work

owned by others than COMAP must be honored. To copy otherwise, to republish, to

post on servers, or to redistribute to lists requires prior permission from COMAP.

436

24.4 (2003)

Contents

1. Setting the Scene

2. Your Job

3. Part 1: Numerical and Graphical Analyses

4. Part 2: Lets Get Explicit

5. Part 3: What Do You Recommend?

References

Sample Solution

Notes for the Instructor

About the Authors

1.

When two water (or other solvent) volumes are separated by a semi-permeable

membrane, water will ow from the side of low solute concentration to the side

of high solute concentration. This is known as osmosis (see Figure 1). The ow

of solvent across the membrane may be stopped, or even reversed, by applying

external pressure on the side of higher solute concentration. This process is

called reverse osmosis (see Figure 2).

Figure 1. Osmosis.

vant Hoff (18521911) determined that the osmotic pressure is given by the

equation

= cRT,

where

c is the molar solute concentration,

R is the universal gas constant, and

T

Notice that c = n/V , where n is the number of moles of solute and V is the

volume of solution. Although vant Hoffs equation looks like a restatement

of the ideal gas law, P V = nRT , it is special because it is being applied to a

437

1901 vant Hoff received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in recognition of the

extraordinary services he has rendered by the discovery of the laws of chemical

dynamics and osmotic pressure in solutions [Nobel Foundation 2000].

Consider the case in Figure 2, where an external pressure, P , is applied to

the side of the membrane with higher solute concentration. The resulting ux

through the membrane is proportional to the difference between the osmotic

pressure and the applied pressure. That is, if x represents the volume of water

that has been extracted from the solution, then

dx

= A(P ),

dt

(1)

where is the water permeability constant andA is the membrane area perpendicular to the ow.

It is important to note that is not a constant here. If the initial volume of

solution is V , and if x units of water have been extracted from the solution at

time t, then

n

RT.

(t) =

V x

Substituting this expression into (1), we get the desalination differential equation,

n

cV RT

dx

= A P

RT = A P

.

(2)

dt

V x

V x

2.

Your Job

Clearwater, Inc., is planning to build a new, portable water purier to remove salt from seawater. They have designed a machine, shown below in

Figure 3; but before they go to the expense of building a prototype, they want

you to perform a theoretical analysis of their design.

Your task is to analyze how the values of the design parameters for the

desalination machine will affect the performance of the machine. Keeping in

mind that the machine must be portable:

How should the membrane coefcient , the membrane size A, the volume V of

the desalination chamber, and the applied pressure P be chosen to produce a

machine that is both efcient and economical?

Clearwater is counting on you to design a good product, so dont let them

down!

438

24.4 (2003)

Salt Water

Applied Load

Revese

Osmosis Membrane

Reverse

Osmosis

Desalinated Water

3.

Analyses

Requirement 1

Use direction elds and Eulers method (of following along the directions

in a direction eld) to sketch solutions of (2). Of course, to do that you will

need to assign values to the various constants and parameters in the equation.

For the physical constants in the problem, use the values

moles

,

L

Lbar

,

R = 0.082

mole K

T = 293 K.

c = 0.103

= 0.1

m3

,

m2 daybar

A = 1.5 m2 ,

P = 15 bars,

V = 4 L.

Plot a direction eld for the desalination differential equation where t (measured in days) goes from 0 to 5 and x (measured in L) goes from 0 to 4. Also,

439

plot the solution curve for x that passes through the point (0, 0).

According to your direction eld and solution, how much fresh water can

the machine extract from 4 L of sea water?

Approximately how long does it take to extract 2 L of fresh water?

As time goes by, what happens to the rate at which the machine produces

fresh water? Does this make sense to you? Can you think of a physical reason

why this would happen?

Requirement 2

Suppose that we change the capacity of the machine. For example, suppose

that the initial volume of brine is 6 L instead of 4. How much fresh water

can we extract? How long does it take to extract 2 L of fresh water? What

happens if we begin with 8 L of brine? How sensitive is the time required to

extract 2 L of fresh water to the initial volume of sea water in the machine?

What relationship seems to exist between the initial volume of sea water and

the total amount of fresh water that can be extracted from it? The graphs in

Figure 4 show examples of proportionality relationships that you might look

for in your investigations.

Requirement 3

Now x the value of V at 6 L and investigate how the performance of the

machine depends on the other design parameters. What effect does increasing

or decreasing A have on the amount of fresh water that we can extract from

a given volume of brine? On the time required to extract 2 L of fresh water?

Answer the same questions for and P . Of the three variables, which one,

when varied, causes the greatest change in the amount of fresh water extracted?

On the time required to extract 2 L of fresh water?

Requirement 4

What is the equilibrium solution of (2)that is, the solution when dx/dt =

0? Discuss how that solution depends on the design parameters and compare

your conclusions to the observations you made in the earlier parts above.

440

4.

24.4 (2003)

Requirement 5

Use separation of variables to obtain the solution of (2) that satises the

initial condition that x = 0 when t = 0. Hint: Solve for t as a function of x.

Requirement 6

Use the solution of the differential equation to determine how the performance of the Clearwater desalination machine depends on the values of the

parameters , A, and P . Do your results agree with the conclusions that you

drew earlier using direction elds?

5.

Requirement 7

Prepare a report for the engineers working on the desalination project at

Clearwater, Inc. An important issue is how quickly the proposed machine will

be able to produce 2 L of fresh water. Your report should include an analysis

of how this time depends on each of the design parameters , A, and P , and

on V .

Clearwaters marketing people have reported that, if their machine is to

be competitive in the marketplace, it must be able to produce at least 2 L of

fresh water per day. If the machine is to be portable, it can handle at most

8 L of seawater at a time. Furthermore, because the walls of the pressure

vessel are quite thin, the upper limit on the applied pressure, P , is 30 bars.

Filters for this machine are extremely expensive; consequently, the area of the

lter is to be no greater than 1.2 m2 . Finally, the best lter available has a

permeability coefcient of = 0.08. Is it theoretically possible to build a reverse

osmosis desalination machine that meets all of these specications? What is

the approximate size of the smallest lter that can be used in this machine to

meet the specications?

To nish your report, give your recommendation for values of design parameters that yield the best machine. A best machine should be built

with some margin for error, so pick your parameter values with some room to

maneuver (is 510% possible?) if you can.

The engineers who will be reading your report are familiar with vant Hoffs

equation. Therefore, you do not need to derive or explain that equation. However, you do need to provide mathematical explanations and justications for

all of the conclusions in your report. You should include all relevant graphs in

an orderly fashion.

441

Instructors Solution

Part 1: Numerical and Graphical Analyses

Requirements 1 and 2

With the given values of the physical constants and design parameters, the

direction eld of (2) and the solution through (0, 0) are as shown in Figure S1.

of fresh water is obtained in approximately 1.1 days. Fresh water is extracted

at a decreasing rate because as fresh water is extracted, the concentration of

salt in the remaining brine solution increases. To maintain a constant rate of

extraction of fresh water, it would be necessary to increase the applied pressure.

With V = 6 L and the other design parameters unchanged, it is possible to

extract a little more than 5 L of fresh water from the solution, and the rst 2 L of

fresh water can be extracted in just over 1 day. This is illustrated in Figure S2.

For V = 8 L, it is possible to extract 6.8 L of fresh water, but the time for 2 L

is almost unchanged from when the volume was 4 L or 6 L. With additional

experimentation, a student can observe that the total fresh water extractable

from a brine solution is proportional to the initial volume of the solution.

Requirement 3

Graphs such as those in Figure S3 suggest that changing the area of the

membrane has no effect on the amount of fresh water extractable from a brine

solution. Furthermore, the time for 2 L of fresh water is inversely proportional

to the area of the membrane. (In Figures S3S5, the values of the parameters

are = 0.1, A = 1.5 m2 , P = 15 bars, and V = 4 L except as indicated.)

442

24.4 (2003)

Figure S3. Effect of increasing the membrane size: A = 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 m2 .

The graphs in Figure S4 lead to the same conclusions about the relationship

between the water permeability constant and the efciency of the machine.

Figure S4. Effect of increasing the water permeability constant: = 0.04, 0.06, 0.08 m/daybar.

The graphs in Figure S5 show that the total amount of fresh water that can

be extracted from a given volume of brine is a (slowly) increasing function of

the applied pressure P . The time required to extract 2 L of fresh water from

a given solution seems to decrease a little faster than 1/P .

These analyses indicate that:

We can get more fresh water from the solution only by increasing either the

volume V or the applied pressure P , and that we get much more for our efforts

by increasing V .

The time to extract 2 L of fresh water from a given volume of brine can be

reduced by increasing any of the parameters , A, and P ; changing P has

the greatest effect, but only marginally.

443

Figure S5. Effect of increasing the applied pressure: P = 10, 15, 20 bars.

Requirement 4

The equilibrium solution of (2) is

cV RT

=V

x=V

P

cRT

1

P

Therefore, as we predicted, the total amount of fresh water that can be extracted

from a given volume of brine is proportional to the initial volume of the solution.

Notice that, as expected, the amount of water that can be extracted does not

depend on either A or . The equilibrium solution also shows that the amount

of fresh water we can extract increases (gradually) with increasing P .

Requirement 5

We could solve

dx

cV RT

= A P

dt

V x

with the initial condition x = 0 when t = 0 via a computer algebra system, but

in fact separation of variables and the integration can be done by hand:

V x

dx = A dt

P (V x) cV RT

x

t

V u

du =

A dt,

0 P (V u) cV RT

0

cRT

P x

x

= At,

ln 1 +

P

(P )2

cV RT V P

cV RT

P x

1

ln 1 +

t(x) =

x

.

AP

P

cV RT V P

444

24.4 (2003)

Requirement 6

The solution of the initial value problem shows that t(x), the time required to

extract a specied volume of fresh water from a brine solution, is inversely proportional to both and A. Furthermore, the solution shows that t(x) decreases

a little faster than 1/P , and that there is only a very weak relationship between t(x) and V . The argument of the logarithm approaches 0 as x approaches

V cV RT /P . This is the equilibrium solution that we found before.

The graph of t(x) with = 0.1, A = 1.5, P = 15, and V = 6 is given in

Figure S6; it is the reection of the solution curve that we saw in Figure S1

about the line x = t. The explicit form of t(x) makes it possible to determine

exact solutions to the Requirements 14 posed in Part 1 of this project.

Requirement 7

It is easy to design a machine that meets the given specications by using

the maximum allowed value of each parameter. Then the machine extracts 2 L

of fresh water from 8 L of brine in 18.4 h. The lter size can be reduced to an

area of 0.92 m2 and the machine will still satisfy the fresh water production

requirement. Table 1 gives examples of other results, from trial and error.

Table 1.

Various results.

of fresh water

0.08

0.08

0.07

1.0

1.1

1.2

27

27

28

6

6

6

25.0

22.7

22.9

445

Background on Reverse Osmosis

While reverse osmosis is sometimes referred to as a ltration process, many

researchers and practitioners prefer not to use this term due to the unique

aspects of this membrane separation. The mechanism of the separation is the

subject of some debate. The most widely accepted theory is that the process

proceeds by a solution-diffusion mechanism [Cussler 1997]. The membrane

does not have physical holes in it but rather acts as a distinct phase. Both

the water and the solute (salt in our case) dissolve in the membrane the same

as they might in an adjacent immiscible liquid phase. The components then

diffuse through the membrane and nally dissolve into the outlet liquid phase.

This is a rate-based separation where the water is puried because it diffuses

more easily, and therefore more quickly, through the membrane than the salt

does. The ux of water through the membrane is proportional to the pressure

above osmotic. The ow of solute is proportional to the concentration difference

across the membrane.

The example discussed in this project is a dead end batch conguration

of the separation process where all the water is being pushed through the

membrane. In practice, almost all reverse osmosis systems are designed in a

continuous cross-ow arrangement where the ow of the liquid is tangential to

the surface of the membrane. In this arrangement, there are two outlet streams,

a puried stream of the water that has passed through the membrane and a

concentrated stream of the material that has been retained by the membrane.

Either of these streams may be the product depending on whether the goal is

to produce puried water or a concentrated product.

Water purication is the largest use of reverse osmosis. However, this process is also used for concentrating various products, including orange juice

in the production of frozen concentrate and maple sap in the production of

maple syrup (where the approximately 3% solids sap must be raised to over

65% solids in the nal syrup). In the cross-ow conguration, the temporal

problem of increasing salt concentration explored in this paper becomes a spatial problem where the concentration is increasing as we move along the lter.

More background on this separation can be found in a short article by Eykamp

[1997] or in an article on the engineering project related to this problem [Moor

et al. 2004].

Vant Hoffs equation provides only an approximation of the osmotic pressure, and the approximation is best for low concentrations of solute. In fact,

the equation overpredicts the osmotic pressure by 35% in the range of concentrations used in this project. Furthermore, our model neglects the fact that

a small amount of salt migrates through the lter along with the water. This is

446

24.4 (2003)

is removed from the brine, the concentration of salt in the remaining solution

increases and, consequently, the difference between the applied pressure and

the osmotic pressure decreases. Eventually, while the rate at which water is

being extracted from the solution is decreasing, the rate of ow of salt through

the membrane actually goes up.

One can get a good idea of the nature of solutions of the desalination differential equation,

cV RT

dx

= A P

,

dt

V x

by examining its form. Initially, the rate of desalination is essentially directly

proportional to both and A. Furthermore, if the amount of fresh water that

has been removed from the salt water is small compared with the total volume

of salt water, then

P

cV RT

P cRT = P .

V x

Therefore, at the beginning of the desalination process, the rate at which fresh

water is being extracted is nearly constant. This is consistent with the solution

curves generated in the Sample Solution. As the value of x increases, V x

decreases and P cV RT /(V x) gets closer to zero. Therefore, as more and

more fresh water is extracted, the rate of extraction decreases.

The equilibrium solution of the differential equation, the constant value of x

for which dx/dt = 0, is of interest. Physically, equilibrium occurs when enough

fresh water has been removed from the solute so that the osmotic pressure

equals the applied pressure. Mathematically, equilibrium occurs when

cRT

,

x=V 1

P

and this value represents the maximum amount of fresh water that can be

extracted from a solution of given volume using a given applied pressure P .

The domain of the solution

cV RT

P x

1

x

ln 1 +

t(x) =

AP

P

cV RT V P

is

0x<V

cRT

1

P

for this project. Start by making a nonoptimal choice for two of the parameter values, say A = 1.1 and V = 7. Now substitute these values in the

447

of two variables z(, P ). Graph z(, P ) and z = 1 together; the portion

of z(, P ) that lies below z = 1 contains permissible values for and P .

For example, Figure S7 shows the permissible values of 0.04 0.08 and

25 P 30 when A = 1.1 and V = 7. Therefore, the values (A, V, , P ) =

(1.15, 7.5, 0.075, 29) (0.05, 0.5, 0.005, 1) all result in an acceptable desalination

machine.

Pedagogical Advice

The instructor has a number of options concerning the administration of

this project. The project can be assigned all at once. As an alternative, when

we gave this project to our students, we spread the objectives out over a weeks

time. We spent part of a class period deriving the desalination differential

equation, to ensure that our students were familiar with the meaning of each

parameter. We then assigned Part 2 of the project, the explicit solution of the

differential equation, to be handed in before the laboratory session in which the

students worked on Part 1. We supplied the correct solution to the differential

equation within the lab itself. In this way, an incorrect solution to the differential

equation did not hamper any students analysis of the problem.

This project was developed jointly by engineering faculty and mathematics

faculty at Lafayette College. During the course of the semester, rst-year engineering students built and tested the desalination pump shown in Figure S8.

448

24.4 (2003)

of important questions they could answer using basic differential equations.

In the semester-end evaluations, a number of the calculus students specically

mentioned that they appreciated seeing this application of the material. We note

that the parameter values we chose for this project were reasonably consistent

with the machine our students built, although the water permeability constant

is about 10 times actual value; the instructor should feel free to experiment with

other values as he or she chooses.

The graphs in the solution to this project were produced using Mathematica.

The slope eld package that generated the graphs is freely available; contact

the authors for a copy.

References

Cussler, E.L. 1997. Membranes. Chapter 17 in Diffusion: Mass Transfer in Fluid

Systems. 2nd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Eykamp, W. 1997. Reverse osmosis and nanoltration. In Perrys Chemical

Engineers Handbook, 7th ed., edited by R.H. Perry, D.W. Green, and J.O.

Maloney, 22-4822-52. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Moor, S. Scott, Edmond P. Saliklis, Scott R. Hummel, and Yih-Choungh Yu.

2004. A press PO system: An interdisciplinary project for rst year engineering students. Chemical Engineering Education 37(1) (Winter 2003): 3844.

Nobel Foundation. 2000. The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1901. http://www.

nobel.se/chemistry/laureates/1901/

449

Ethan Berkove is Assistant Professor of Mathematics at Lafayette College. Ethan studied mathematics and

Japanese as an undergraduate at the University of Michigan, then shifted over to mathematics for his Ph.D. at the

University of Wisconsin, Madison. His research eld is

algebraic topology, but his interests include applications

of mathematics and mathematical recreations.

North Carolina State

University and his Ph.D. from the University of Virginia.

He teaches a variety of mathematics courses, including

courses in mathematical modeling.

Scott Moor is Assistant Professor of Chemical Engineering at Lafayette College. He received B.S. and

M.S. degrees in Chemical Engineering from M.I.T. After

over a decade in industry, he returned to academia at the

University of California at Berkeley, where he received

a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering and an M.A. in Statistics. He is a registered Professional Chemical Engineer

in the State of California. His research interests include

the development of materials for science, mathematics

and engineering education, applied statistics, and visualization of spray and particle system dynamics.

450

24.4 (2003)

Vehicle Emissions

N T E R D I S C I P L I N A R Y

AUTHORS:

Lei Yu

(Transportation Studies)

yu_lx@tsu.edu

Texas Southern University

3100 Cleburne Avenue

Houston, TX 77004

Don Small

(Mathematics)

U.S. Military Academy

West Point, NY 10996

Lafayette College

Easton, PA 18042

CONTENTS

1. Introduction

2. Remote Emission-Sensing

Technique

3. Emission Data Collection

4. Data Conversion

5. Regression Analysis

6. Emission-Based Speed

Optimization

7. Real-World Applications

References

Sample Solution

Notes for the Instructor

About the Authors

I V E L Y

P P L I C A T I O N S

451

R O J E C T

Vehicle Emissions

MATHEMATICS CLASSIFICATIONS:

Algebra

DISCIPLINARY CLASSIFICATIONS:

Traffic Engineering

PREREQUISITE SKILLS:

1. Elementary algebra

2. Regression techniques

3. Elementary optimization

1. Concept of a mobile source for vehicle emissions

2. Optimal driving speeds to minimize emissions

3. Total vehicle emissions for a given speed profile

COMPUTING REQUIREMENT:

1. Spreadsheet and ability to use it

2. Calculator and ability to use it

The UMAP Journal 24 (4) 451-472. Copyright 2003 by COMAP, Inc. All rights

reserved. Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or

distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice.

Abstracting with credit is permitted, but copyrights for components of this work

owned by others than COMAP must be honored. To copy otherwise, to republish, to

post on servers, or to redistribute to lists requires prior permission from COMAP.

452

24.4 (2003)

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Remote Emission-Sensing Technique

3. Emission Data Collection

4. Data Conversion

5. Regression Analysis

6. Emission-Based Speed Optimization

7. Real-World Applications

References

Sample Solution

Notes for the Instructor

About the Authors

1.

Introduction

monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and ne particles

(PM). These chemical compounds play dominant roles in air pollution problems. In the densely populated Northeast, where the air pollution problem is

especially severe, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has projected

that highway vehicles will account for approximately 38% of the total NOx inventory and 22% of the total HC inventory in 2005, in spite of the tighter motor

vehicle standards in the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment (CAAA) (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Trafc.

Vehicle emissions, especially CO, NOx, and HC, are harmful to the health

of humans. CO is a tasteless, odorless, and colorless gas produced through

the incomplete combustion of carbon-based fuels. CO enters the bloodstream

through the lungs and reduces the delivery of oxygen to the bodys organs

and tissues. The health threat from exposure to CO is most serious for those

Vehicle Emissions

453

who suffer from cardiovascular disease, particularly those with angina or peripheral vascular disease. Exposure to elevated CO levels is associated with

impairment of visual perception, work capacity, manual dexterity, learning

ability and performance of complex tasks. NOx emissions also produce a wide

variety of health and welfare effects. Nitrogen dioxide can irritate the lungs and

lower resistance to respiratory infection (such as inuenza). NOx emissions are

important in acid rain, affecting both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen leads to excess nutrient enrichment problems

(eutrophication). Finally, HC, in combination with NOx in the presence of

heat and sunlight, will form ozone. Ozone forms readily in the atmosphere,

usually during hot summer weather. Ground-level ozone is the prime ingredient of smog, the pollution that blankets many areas during the summer.

Short-term exposures (13 hours) to high ambient ozone concentrations have

been linked to increased hospital admissions and emergency room visits for

respiratory problems.

With the rapid increase of the number of motor vehicles along with worldwide economic development, the vehicle emission problem has worsened.

Many governments have started to implement certain vehicle emission-control

strategies. Steady progress in reducing certain air pollution problems is occurring in the US, Europe and Japan. Globally, the use of advanced pollutioncontrol technology, especially catalysts has been spreading, as has the use of

unleaded gasoline. However, the continued economic growth in the world requires the use of strategies that do not impose negative effect on the economic

development, in other words, do not restrict vehicle ownership. Examples

of such strategies that have already been implemented in many cities in the

world include advanced trafc-control techniques, integrated transportation

planning process, and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies.

Past research has shown that driving patterns greatly inuence the amount

of vehicle emissions. Frequent acceleration and deceleration tend to generate

more emissions than smoother driving. An effective trafc signal timing plan

can smooth trafc ow in a manner that reduces the emissions. In addition, well

planned transportation projects or activities can change the driving patterns of

vehicles in the city at a more macroscopic level.

2.

accurate quantication of vehicle emissions under various trafc and environmental scenarios. The remote emission-sensing device that is used in this

project is called SMOG DOG. It performs environmental monitoring to measure

automotive emissions. The SMOG DOG can simultaneously measure emission

concentrations of CO, HC, NOx, and CO2 in the dispersing exhaust cloud of

vehicles. A special feature of the SMOG DOG is its capability in detecting a

vehicles instantaneous speed and acceleration rate.

454

24.4 (2003)

3.

SMOG DOG was used to collect vehicle emission data from a freeway onramp in Houston, TX (Figure 2). The operation of SMOG DOG requires that

the vehicle be in motion. Hence, the emission data for the idling mode are

not collected. Instead, vehicle idling emissions will be calculated based on the

regression models that are developed. Table 1 illustrates the emission data on

CO and HC concentrations that were collected.

Problem: Develop models relating vehicle speed and vehicle exhaust emissions

of CO and HC. Formulate speed recommendations based on your model and

the given data. Use of spreadsheet technology is strongly recommended. Input

the data in Table 1 into a spreadsheet (4 columns). You will add four more

columns in Requirement 2 and two more in Requirement 4.

Requirement 1

Use the data in Table 1 to

plot the CO concentration (%) vs. speed data, and

plot the HC concentration (%) vs. speed data.

Vehicle Emissions

455

Table 1.

CO and HC concentration data collected by SMOG DOG in Houston.

Data #

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

4.

Speed (mph)

CO%

HC%

9.98

10.97

15.40

15.69

16.44

17.11

18.66

19.04

20.95

21.52

23.41

24.82

25.15

26.35

27.02

27.62

29.90

30.04

30.67

31.99

34.97

35.10

35.94

36.98

37.69

37.90

38.74

40.58

41.63

42.12

0.27

0.22

0.30

0.03

0.21

0.89

0.19

0.79

0.08

0.07

1.61

0.77

0.76

1.91

0.40

0.06

0.36

0.18

0.58

0.12

1.02

0.53

1.11

0.29

1.67

0.62

0.27

0.09

0.30

0.54

0.000027

0.000022

0.00003

0.000003

0.000021

0.000089

0.000019

0.000079

0.000008

0.000007

0.000161

0.000077

0.000076

0.000191

0.00004

0.000006

0.000036

0.000018

0.000058

0.000012

0.000102

0.000053

0.000111

0.000029

0.000167

0.000062

0.000027

0.000009

0.00003

0.000054

Data #

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

Speed (mph)

CO%

HC%

43.22

44.20

45.05

46.59

47.06

47.51

47.86

48.92

49.78

49.81

50.50

50.52

51.48

52.18

52.87

53.25

53.62

54.32

55.19

56.07

56.33

56.56

58.29

58.75

59.44

61.40

62.00

63.65

67.11

76.68

0.32

0.29

0.39

0.79

0.73

0.54

0.07

0.33

0.43

0.55

0.72

0.21

0.18

0.61

0.92

0.19

0.44

0.22

0.34

0.49

0.15

0.76

0.12

0.12

0.35

0.83

0.21

0.35

0.35

0.47

0.000032

0.000029

0.000039

0.000079

0.000073

0.000054

0.000007

0.000033

0.000043

0.000055

0.000072

0.000021

0.000018

0.000061

0.000092

0.000019

0.000044

0.000022

0.000034

0.000049

0.000015

0.000076

0.000012

0.000012

0.000035

0.000083

0.000021

0.000035

0.000035

0.000047

Data Conversion

To develop models relating vehicle speed to emission quantities, we introduce two emission quantities: emission factor (g/mi) and emission rate (g/s).

The emission factor is the number of grams emitted when the vehicle

travels one mile.

The emission rate is the total emission in grams that a vehicle emits

per second.

We dene the following variables:

CO%: CO emission concentration (%);

HC%: HC emission concentration (%);

COs: CO emission rate in grams per second (g/s);

456

24.4 (2003)

COm: CO emission factor in grams per mile (g/mi);

HCm: HC emission factor in grams per mile (g/mi);

u: a vehicles instantaneous speed in miles per hour (mph);

uoptimal : optimal speed (mph) that minimizes emissions;

b0 , b1 , c0 , c1 : constant values (regression model coefcients).

Conversion of emission concentrations to emission rates is problematic.

Many scientists and engineers use the following linear correlation relationships,

developed for the emission concentrations and emissions factors by the South

Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD).

Conversion from emission concentrations to emission factors:

COm (g/mi) = 11.1 CO% + 21.3,

(1)

(2)

COm (g/mi) u mph

,

3600

HCm (g/mi) u mph

HCs (g/s) =

.

3600

COs (g/s) =

(3)

(4)

Requirement 2

Use (1)(4) to convert the CO/HC concentrations in Table 1 to CO/HC

emission factors and CO/HC emission rates. Expand your spreadsheet table

to include the 8 columns: Data #, Speed, CO%, HC%, COm, HCm, COs, and

HCs.

Requirement 3

Draw four graphs to show the relationships between speed and CO/HC

emission factors as well as CO/HC emission rates using the data prepared in

Requirement 2. Based on your visual analysis of these graphs, which relationships display a better regularity of shapes and trends; emission factors or

emission rates?

Vehicle Emissions

5.

457

Regression Analysis

In many engineering and scientic applications, relationships between variables are established by rst collecting data from experimental studies in either

the laboratory or the eld. This data is then plotted and relationship discerned.

In this project, the two variables in the relationship represent the speed and

the CO/HC emission rates. Because of potential errors in measurement, the

data shown in the graphs drawn in Requirement 3 may not fall precisely on a

smooth curve. For this reason, the task of the analysis becomes threefold:

to hypothesize the mathematical form of the relationship between the two

variables (model postulation);

to estimate the parameters of the model based on the collected eld data

(model calibration); and

to determine how well the calibrated relationship explains the observed data

(goodness of t).

This analysis process is called regression.

Scientic research on vehicle emissions has shown that the best mathematical function to model the relationship between the speed and the CO or HC

emission rate is the natural logarithm, expressed in the following forms:

ln(COs) = b0 + b1 u,

ln(HCs) = c0 + c1 u.

(5)

(6)

The speed u is the independent or explanatory variable. The emission rates, COs

or HCs, are called the dependent or explained variables. The constant coefcients

c0 and c1 are the model parameters. Data from Requirement 2 can be used to

plot ln(COs) vs. speed and ln(HCs) vs. speed. Calibrating the model means

determining the unknown values of the parameters in (5) or (6) to obtain the

best t to these plots. The goodness of t is measured by the coefcient of

correlation, r. Its value can range from 1 to +1. If r is near +1, there exists a

high positive correlation; if it is near 1, there exists a high negative correlation;

and if it is around zero, there exists no correlation between the independent

and the dependent variables.

Requirement 4

Use the regression technique and the data prepared in Requirement 2 to

calibrate (5) and (6). The data for COs and HCs prepared in Requirement 2

need to be transformed by the natural logarithm (ln) before a simple linear

regression can be carried out. Hint: Add columns for ln(C0s) and ln(HCs) to

your spreadsheet table constructed in Requirement 2. Then plot the ln(C0s)

vs. speed and form the linear regression. Repeat for ln(HCs) vs. speed.

458

24.4 (2003)

Requirement 5

Calculate the coefcient correlations for the regressions in Requirement 4.

Are the models acceptable? Why? Draw the line plot for each of the regression

equations generated.

6.

solving (3) for COm and (4) for HCm. The new equations are:

COs (g/s) 3600 (s/h)

,

u (mi/h)

HCs (g/s) 3600 (s/h)

HCm (g/mi) =

.

u (mi/h)

COm (g/mi) =

(7)

(8)

Equations (3) and (4) for the emission rates are in the form y = mx, where the

slopes are COm/3600 and HCm/3600. Because these slopes are positive, the

emission rates are monotonically increasing functions of speed; hence, there

are no minimum values for a moving vehicle. The situation is less clear for the

emission factors described by (7) and (8). These equations can be transformed

into explicit functions of speed by solving for COs and HCs in the results of

Requirement 4 and then substituting these results into (7) and (8). Doing this

yields

3600eb0 +b1 u

,

COs (g/s) =

u

3600ec0 +c1 u

HCm (g/s) =

.

u

(9)

(10)

A graphical analysis can now be made to determine what speeds will minimize the emission factors. Knowledge of these speeds is critical information

for developing an advanced trafc management scheme to reduce emission

amounts.

Requirement 6

Draw a graph with two curves, one for the relationship between the speed

and the CO emission rate, and the other for the relationship between the speed

and the CO emission factor. Draw a second graph with two curves, one for the

relationship between the speed and the HC emission rate, and the other for the

relationship between the speed and the HC emission factor. Let the speed be

measured starting from 0 to 70 mph in increments of 5 mph. Then calculate

the emission rates by solving for COs and HCs in the equations generated in

Requirement 4, and the emission factors using (9) and (10). Based on the visual

analysis of the graphs, is there a speed that can minimize the emission factor?

Vehicle Emissions

459

Requirement 7

Approximate the speeds corresponding to the minimum points on the emission factor plots. What speed do you recommend for minimizing both the CO

and HC emission factors? Hint: On a graphing calculator, use the trace feature

to trace a point along the curve to the minimum position or use the table feature

to determine the coordinates of the minimum point. For a spreadsheet, iterate

the function values to determine the minimum.

7.

Real-World Applications

would be the minimum. On the other hand, if vehicles are driven at varying

speeds, the resulting emissions will be higher. To analyze such a pattern, we assume two different speed proles experienced by two different vehicles. Both

vehicles are driven for 30 s, but the rst vehicle travels at a constant speed of

35 mph while the speed of the second vehicle varies between 29 and 42 mph (see

Table 2). After 30 s, both vehicles have driven the same distance, 1540 ft. Although both vehicles have been driven the same distance during the same time

period, it is expected that the resulting vehicle emissions would be different.

Table 2 illustrates the details of these two different speed proles.

Requirement 8

Based on Table 2, plot two graphs, one for the constant speed prole, and

one for the varying speed prole. For each speed prole, there should be

two curves, one for the relationship between time and speed, and one for the

relationship between time and the distance. Use different y-axes for speed and

distance.

Requirement 9

Use the regression equations derived from Requirement 4 to calculate the

CO and HC emissions at each second for the two different speed proles in

Table 2. Make your calculation in a table. Then, calculate the total CO and HC

emissions for the entire travel of the two speed proles. What can you conclude

from your calculations?

Requirement 10

Assume that an accident happened on a location of a freeway segment. A

police ofcer came to the scene to process the necessary paperwork for this

accident and towing vehicles came to remove all vehicles involved. It took a

460

24.4 (2003)

Table 2.

Speed proles driven by two vehicles.

Time (Sec)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Speed (mph)

Distance (ft)

35

51

35

103

35

154

35

205

35

257

35

308

35

359

35

411

35

462

35

513

35

565

35

616

35

667

35

719

35

770

35

821

35

873

35

924

35

975

35

1027

35

1078

35

1129

35

1181

35

1232

35

1283

35

1335

35

1386

35

1437

35

1489

35

1540

Time (Sec)

Speed (mph)

Distance (ft)

1

42

62

2

41

122

3

40

180

4

39

238

5

38

293

6

38

349

7

37

403

8

36

456

9

35

507

10

34

557

11

33

606

12

32

653

13

31

698

14

30

742

15

30

786

16

30

830

17

29

873

18

29

915

19

30

959

20

31

1005

21

32

1052

22

33

1100

23

34

1150

24

35

1201

25

36

1254

26

37

1308

27

38

1364

28

39

1421

29

40

1480

30

41

1540

total of 40 min from the start of the accident to the time when the accident scene

is completely cleared. During this period, a total of 200 vehicles have to stop.

Assume the average wait is 30 min per vehicle. Calculate the total additional

CO and HC emissions that were generated by these 200 vehicles due to the

trafc accident. What can you conclude from your calculation? Hint: Derive

the idling emissions rates by setting the speed equal to zero in the results of

Requirement 4.

References

European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT). 291. Vehicle Emission

Reductions. Paris, France: OECD Publications Services (2, rue Andre Pascal,

75775 Paris Cedex 16, France).

Sorbe, N. 1995. Hughes Employee Vehicle Exhaust Remote Sensing and Emissions Evaluation Project. Report prepared for the Mobile Source Air Pollution Reduction Review Committee (MSRC) under the AB2766 Program. El

Segundo, CA: Hughes Environmental Systems, Inc.

Vehicle Emissions

461

Yu, L. 1998a. Collection and Evaluation of Modal Trafc Data for Determination

of Vehicle Emission Rates under Certain Driving Conditions. Research

Reports 1485-1, 1485-2, and 1485-3F for TxDOT Project No. 0-1485, Center

for Transportation Training and Research. Houston, TX: Texas Southern

University.

. 1998b. Remote vehicle exhaust emission-sensing for trafc simulation and optimization models. Journal of Transportation Research Part D:

Transport and Environment 3: 337347.

462

24.4 (2003)

Sample Solution

Requirement 1: The graphs between the speed and CO and HC concentrations

are shown in Figures S1 and S2.

CO% Versus Speed

2.5

CO Concentration (%)

1.5

0.5

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Speed (mph)

Based on visual analysis of these graphs, clearly the speed is not correlated

with the CO or HC concentrations. The data are scattered and do not show any

regularity of shapes or trends.

Requirement 2: The generated table is shown in Table S1.

Requirement 3: See Figures S3S6. A visual analysis of the graphs suggests

that the CO/HC emission rates have greater regularity of shape and trend with

the speed than do the CO/HC emission factors.

Requirement 4: The resulting regression equations are:

ln(COs) = 2.46215 + 0.028383u,

or

COs = e2.46215+0.028383u ,

or

COs = e4.91624+0.030929u .

Vehicle Emissions

463

0.04

0.035

HC Concentration (%)

0.03

0.025

0.02

0.015

0.01

0.005

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

80

90

Speed (mph)

45.0000

40.0000

35.0000

CO Emissions (g/mi)

30.0000

25.0000

20.0000

15.0000

10.0000

5.0000

0.0000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Speed (mph)

70

464

24.4 (2003)

Table S1.

Speed proles driven by two vehicles.

Data #

Speed

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

CO%

HC%

9.98

10.97

0.27

0.22

0.0096 24.2970

0.0058 23.7420

15.40

15.69

0.30

0.03

0.0038 24.6300

0.0031 21.6330

16.44

17.11

18.66

0.21

0.89

0.19

0.0161 23.6310

0.0031 31.1790

0.0055 23.4090

19.04

20.95

0.79

0.08

0.0241 30.0690

0.0065 22.1880

21.52

23.41

0.07

1.61

0.0007 22.0770

0.0063 39.1710

24.82

25.15

0.77

0.76

0.0187 29.8470

0.0257 29.7360

26.35

27.02

1.91

0.40

0.0370 42.5010

0.0206 25.7400

27.62

29.90

0.06

0.36

0.0050 21.9660

0.0256 25.2960

30.04

30.67

31.99

0.18

0.58

0.12

0.0041 23.2980

0.0036 27.7380

0.0161 22.6320

34.97

35.10

1.02

0.53

0.0013 32.6220

0.0084 27.1830

35.94

36.98

1.11

0.29

0.0122 33.6210

0.0061 24.5190

37.69

37.90

1.67

0.62

0.0350 39.8370

0.0206 28.1820

38.74

40.58

0.27

0.09

0.0152 24.2970

0.0037 22.2990

41.63

42.12

0.30

0.54

0.0063 24.6300

0.0133 27.2940

43.22

44.20

45.05

0.32

0.29

0.39

0.0147 24.8520

0.0141 24.5190

0.0247 25.6290

46.59

47.06

0.79

0.73

0.0239 30.0690

0.0079 29.4030

47.51

47.86

0.54

0.07

0.0171 27.2940

0.0071 22.0770

48.92

49.78

0.33

0.43

0.0248 24.9630

0.0345 26.0730

49.81

50.50

0.55

0.72

0.0150 27.4050

0.0138 29.2920

50.52

51.48

0.21

0.18

0.0173 23.6310

0.0056 23.2980

52.18

52.87

53.25

0.61

0.92

0.19

0.0352 28.0710

0.0186 31.5120

0.0282 23.4090

53.62

54.32

0.44

0.22

0.0013 26.1840

0.0329 23.7420

55.19

56.07

0.34

0.49

0.0211 25.0740

0.0054 26.7390

56.33

56.56

0.15

0.76

0.0039 22.9650

0.0351 29.7360

58.29

58.75

0.12

0.12

0.0169 22.6320

0.0103 22.6320

59.44

61.40

0.35

0.83

0.0038 25.1850

0.0068 30.5130

62.00

63.65

67.11

0.21

0.35

0.35

0.0084 23.6310

0.0068 25.1850

0.0089 25.1850

76.68

0.47

0.0073 26.5170

2.3077

2.0671

1.9405

1.8962

2.7191

1.8962

2.0482

3.2255

2.1115

1.7443

2.0988

2.8837

3.3268

4.0421

3.0040

2.0165

3.3205

1.9595

1.9279

2.7191

1.7823

2.2317

2.4723

2.0861

3.9155

3.0040

2.6622

1.9342

2.0988

2.5419

2.6305

2.5925

3.2635

3.2129

2.2001

2.7824

2.1494

3.2698

3.8839

2.6495

2.5735

2.7951

2.0545

3.9282

2.8774

3.4851

1.7823

3.7826

3.0356

2.0418

1.9469

3.9218

2.7698

2.3520

1.9405

2.1304

2.2317

2.1304

2.2634

2.1621

0.0674

0.0723

0.1054

0.0943

0.1079

0.1482

0.1213

0.1590

0.1291

0.1319

0.2547

0.2057

0.2077

0.3110

0.1932

0.1685

0.2101

0.1944

0.2363

0.2011

0.3169

0.2650

0.3356

0.2518

0.4171

0.2967

0.2615

0.2514

0.2848

0.3193

0.2983

0.3010

0.3207

0.3891

0.3844

0.3602

0.2935

0.3392

0.3605

0.3791

0.4109

0.3316

0.3332

0.4068

0.4627

0.3462

0.3900

0.3582

0.3844

0.4165

0.3593

0.4671

0.3664

0.3693

0.4158

0.5204

0.4070

0.4452

0.4695

0.5648

HCs(g/sec)

0.0064

0.0063

0.0083

0.0083

0.0124

0.0090

0.0106

0.0171

0.0123

0.0104

0.0136

0.0199

0.0232

0.0296

0.0225

0.0155

0.0276

0.0163

0.0164

0.0242

0.0173

0.0218

0.0247

0.0214

0.0410

0.0316

0.0286

0.0218

0.0243

0.0297

0.0316

0.0318

0.0408

0.0416

0.0288

0.0367

0.0286

0.0444

0.0537

0.0367

0.0361

0.0392

0.0294

0.0569

0.0423

0.0515

0.0265

0.0571

0.0465

0.0318

0.0305

0.0616

0.0448

0.0384

0.0320

0.0363

0.0384

0.0377

0.0422

0.0460

Vehicle Emissions

465

4.5000

4.0000

3.5000

HC Emissions (g/mi)

3.0000

2.5000

2.0000

1.5000

1.0000

0.5000

0.0000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

70

80

90

Speed (mph)

0.6000

0.5000

CO Emissions (g/sec)

0.4000

0.3000

0.2000

0.1000

0.0000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Speed (mph)

466

24.4 (2003)

0.0700

0.0600

0.0400

0.0300

0.0200

0.0100

0.0000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Speed (mph)

Requirement 5:

r(COs) = 0.9089,

r(HCs) = 0.8644.

Both correlation coefcients are close to one, so both regression equations

have acceptable goodness of t. Since r(COs) is slightly higher than r(HCs),

the regression equation for COs is better than the one for HCs.

Speed Line Plot

ln(CO)

HC Emissions (g/sec)

0.0500

0

-2

-4

50

100

LN(CO)

Predicted LN(CO)

Speed

Figure S7. Line plot for the speed and the CO emission factor.

Requirement 6: From Figures S9S10, there clearly exists a speed value that

minimizes either the CO emission factor or the HC emission factor. On the

other hand, the emission rates are monotonically increasing functions of the

speed.

Requirement 7:

Vehicle Emissions

ln(HC)

0

-5 0

50

LN(HC)

100

Predicted LN(HC)

-10

Speed

Figure S8. Line plot for the speed and the HC emission factor.

0.70

70

CO (g/mi)

0.60

60

CO (g/sec)

0.50

50

0.40

40

0.30

30

CO (g/sec)

CO (g/mi)

80

0.20

20

0.10

10

0

0.00

0

20

40

60

80

Speed (mph)

Figure S9. Relationships between the CO emission rates/factors and the speed.

7

0.07

0.06

HC (g/mi)

0.05

HC (g/sec)

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

HC (g/sec)

HC (g/mi)

0.00

0

20

40

60

80

Speed (mph)

Figure S10. Relationships between the HC emission rates/factors and the speed.

467

468

24.4 (2003)

1800

40

1600

35

1400

30

1200

Distance (ft)

Speed (mph)

1000

25

20

800

15

600

400

10

200

Speed (mi/hr)

0

0

10

15

20

25

30

Time (sec)

1800

45

1600

40

1400

35

1200

30

1000

25

Distance (ft)

Speed (mph)

800

20

600

15

400

10

200

0

0

10

15

20

25

Time (sec)

30

Speed (mi/hr)

Vehicle Emissions

469

Table S2.

Second-by-second calculations.

Time

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Speed 1

CO 1

HC 1

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

TOTAL EMISSIONS

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.2302

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

0.02163

6.9064

0.6489

Speed 2

CO 2

HC 2

42

41

40

39

38

38

37

37

37

36

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

0.2808

0.2730

0.2653

0.2579

0.2507

0.2507

0.2437

0.2437

0.2437

0.2368

0.2302

0.2238

0.2175

0.2114

0.2055

0.1998

0.1942

0.1942

0.1998

0.2055

0.2114

0.2175

0.2238

0.2302

0.2368

0.2437

0.2507

0.2579

0.2653

0.2730

0.02686

0.02604

0.02525

0.02448

0.02373

0.02373

0.02301

0.02301

0.02301

0.02231

0.02163

0.02097

0.02033

0.01971

0.01911

0.01853

0.01797

0.01797

0.01853

0.01911

0.01971

0.02033

0.02097

0.02163

0.02231

0.02301

0.02373

0.02448

0.02525

0.02604

7.0382

0.66273

For the CO emissions, the varying speed prole generates a total of 7.04 g

comparing with the 6.91 g for the constant speed prole (2% higher). Similarly

for the HC emissions, the varying speed prole generates a total of 0.663 g comparing with the 0.649 g of emissions for the constant speed prole (2% higher).

Since the optimal speed is 35 mph for CO and 32 mph for HC, the constant

speed prole in this requirement should result in the minimum CO emissions

and close to minimum HC emissions. Although the 2% higher emissions does

not seem like a signicant amount, this is just for 30 s for a single vehicle. You

can imagine how much additional emissions would be generated if all vehicles

in the city drive at varying speeds of a signicant level. On the other hand, the

trafc managers should try to implement trafc management strategies that

would encourage or force drivers to drive at desired and constant speeds.

470

24.4 (2003)

to derive the idling emission rate in units of grams per second:

COs when idling = e2.46215+0.028383u = 0.08525 g/s,

HCs when idling = e4.91624+0.030929u = 0.00733 g/s.

Therefore, during the 30 min delay, a vehicle will emit the following total CO

and HC emissions:

CO idling emissions for one vehicle for 30 min = 0.08525 30 60=153.45 g,

HC idling emissions for one vehicle for 30 min = 0.00733 30 60= 13.194 g.

Therefore, the total CO emissions for 200 vehicles = 153.45 200 = 30,690 g and

the total HC emissions for 200 vehicles = 13.194 200 = 2,639 g.

From the above calculation, we can see that one trafc accident can result

in considerable additional CO and HC emissions. Considerably more emissions will be produced if many trafc accidents happen in the city. Therefore,

reducing the number of trafc accidents can reduce the vehicle emissions.

Vehicle Emissions

471

This project is designed for students to practice algebraic calculations, data

analysis, and optimization using real-world vehicle emission data. The vehicle

emission issue is becoming more and more important because of the stricter

regulations imposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Vehicle emissions are a big source of air pollution and are related to many of our

health problems.

The key to the successful completion of this project is a clear understanding

of the sequence of the data, the denitions of the variables, the relationships

between variables, as well as the algebraic, data analysis, and optimization

concepts. Any additional information related to vehicle emission-control can

be introduced in the class. The instructor can introduce various emission data

collection techniques. The instructor can also introduce more complicated modeling and data analysis techniques.

The simplest regression equation is used in this project, which although

nonlinear, includes only one variable. The instructor can encourage students

to test various regression formulas and different combinations of variables. For

instance, other regression models to consider include

COs = b0 + b1 u + b2 u2 ,

HCs = c0 + c1 u + c2 u2 .

Requirements 49 can be repeated with these other regression formulas.

The instructor can also encourage students to search literature on other

existing vehicle emission models. Students can compare the calculation results

between the models developed in this project and other models.

472

24.4 (2003)

Lei Yu is Professor and Chairperson of the Transportation Studies Department at Texas Southern University. He is also a Changjiang Scholar of Beijing Jiaotong University. He received a bachelors degree in

Transportation Engineering from Northern Jiaotong University, Beijing, China and a masters degree in Production and Systems Engineering from Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya, Japan. His Ph.D. degree

in Civil Engineering was awarded by Queens University in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. His research interests involve highway trafc operations and modeling,

urban transportation planning, the ITS-related technologies and applications,

and vehicle exhaust emission modeling. Since 1994, Yu has been the Principal Investigator (PI) of more than 25 research projects that were sponsored by

Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Federal Transit Administration (FTA), Southwest Region University Transportation Center (SWUTC) program, National Institute of Standards

and Technology (NIST), and Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC); the

total funding amount is over $2 million. Dr. Yu has published more than 50

research papers in the Journal of Transportation Research, Transportation Research

Records, and the Journal of Transportation Engineering, as well as in various peerreviewed conference proceedings. Dr. Yu is an active member of the Institute of

Transportation Engineers (ITE), the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)

and the Transportation Research Board (TRB). He is a registered engineer in

the State of Texas. He also belongs to numerous committees, councils, and task

forces in regional, state, national, and international organizations.

Don Small graduated from Middlebury College and

received his Ph.D. degree in mathematics from the University of Connecticut. He taught mathematics at Colby

College for 23 years before joining the Mathematics Department at the U.S. Military Academy in 1991. He is active

in the calculus and college algebra reform movements

developing curricula, authoring texts, and leading faculty

development workshops. Active in the Mathematical Association of America (MAA), Don served a term as Chairman and two terms

as Governor of the Northeast Section and has been a long-term member of

the MAAs CRAFTY committee. His interests are in developing curriculum

that focuses on student growth while meeting the needs of partner disciplines,

society, and the workplace. He is also a member of AMATYC and AMS.

Reviews

473

Reviews

King, A.C., J. Billingham, and S.R. Otto. 2003. Differential Equations: Linear,

Nonlinear, Ordinary, Partial. New York: Cambridge University Press; 554 pp,

$100. ISBN 0521816580.

The American tradition in mathematics is rather different from the British.

An uncharitable characterization of the former would be that American mathematicians of the nineteenth century were largely hacks. J.J. Sylvester at Johns

Hopkins was an anomaly, and represented genuine scholarly excellence in the

European tradition. He was, after all, British. It is widely thought that G. D.

Birkhoff brought the rst serious attention to American mathematics (just because he proved theorems that were recognized in Europe). He was followed

by Lefschetz, Veblen, Bochner, Alexander, and many other powerful and inuential American scholars who established the pre-eminence of the U.S. in

modern mathematics.

Of course the history of British mathematics goes back much further. Isaac

Barrow was the rst Professor of Mathematics at Cambridge. He was followed by Isaac Newton, who made quite a splash. Newtons departure, as

we all know, left a considerable vacuumit can be said that British mathematics imploded for more than a century. But an important tradition sprang

up in the nineteenth century, and that is the British paradigm for concrete applied mathematics. Certainly one of the rst avatars of this point of view was

George Green. In his short but fruitful career, he invented the Greens function, Greens theorem, the idea of potential function, what is now known as

the Dirichlet principle, and the idea of the tensor. He had tremendous inuence on Cayley, Maxwell, and many other applied mathematicians in the late

nineteenth century. In spite of Hardy and Littlewoods wholesale rejection of

applications or uses of mathematics, the strong British applied tradition lives

on in practitioners like Mary Cartwright (recently deceased) and Elliott Lieb

(still very active and productive at Princeton).

The book under review is the product of the British practice in applied

mathematics. For this we can be grateful, for it represents a breath of fresh

air in the differential equations textbook market in this country. There are

not a great many undergraduate texts in partial differential equations in the

U.S., and precious few that have any real depth and substance. There are

fewer still rmly grounded in applicationsthe very wellspring of this part of

c

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2003 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved.

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474

mathematics. This book, arising as it does from the British history described

above, is a valuable contribution and will be a pleasure to have as a resource

for our undergraduate (and even our beginning graduate) curriculum.

The authors have made a number of very smart choices in designing their

book. First, they assume that the reader has a little background in the basic

techniques of linear ordinary differential equations. That way they can get off

to a ying start on their subject proper.1 As they point out in their Preface, there

are two types of differential equations books on the market:

those that are far too theoretical, and

those that are too much plug and chug (offering explicit, concrete solution

techniques to a limited collection of rather dry old problems).

The authors profess to steer a clear course between these two markers, they let

the applications be their guide, and I believe that they succeed admirably.

The title of this book is already indicative of the direct, evenhanded approach

that this team of authors brings to their task. There is no nonsense, little ash,

but instead a refreshingly weighty dose of substance. In addition to studying

topics that you would expect (such as Greens functions, boundary value problems, Sturm-Liouville theory, Fourier series, Laplace transforms, phase-plane

analysis, and existence/uniqueness), they also delight us with detailed and

incisive treatments of Legendre functions, Bessel functions (can you detect the

British tradition, e.g., Watson?), Lie groups, asymptotic methods, time-optimal

control, chaotic systems, and bifurcations.

The book is chock full of really meaty applicationssome of which you

can present in class and some of which require further study and could be the

subject for a term paper or team project. These include van Dykes matching

principle, boundary layer potentials, thermal ignition, the van der Pol oscillator,

Kuzmaks method for slowly damped nonlinear oscillations, reaction-diffusion

processes, the WKB approximation, the Helmholtz equation, time-optimal trajectories, mechanical oscillators, and on it goes. This is a very rich text, just full

of material to keep both student and instructor fascinated.

The exercise sets are rich, having both routine problems (there could be a few

more of these) and advanced problems. The latter are divided into problems

that can be done in an hour or two and those that can lead to protracted projects.

Each is clearly labeled.

If I had to criticize this book for something, I would have to point out that

many of the gures are rather primitive. They were clearly prepared with some

software (such as CorelDraw), but rather ineptly. I think that the publisher

should have caught this aw and corrected it. Apart from the gures, the book

is very professionally prepared and a pleasure to read. It is only black and

whiteno color photographs or plots here. But that is very much in keeping

with the spirit of the book. This is no-nonsense stuff, and is not meant for the

faint of heart.

1 They

ODE.

do, however, provide a nice little Appendix that provides the missing material on basic

Reviews

475

The authors are great believers in MatLab. This use of software is highly appropriate for an engineering audienceand good for everyone else as well. It is

misleading, in todays world, to teach students that most differential equations

can be solved by hand. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is certainly

an epiphany, for instance, to know that the differential equations that describe

an airfoil (such as the wing of the Boeing 767) are solved by a sophisticated

process of guessing. Dont believe me?Ask Tony Jameson, the guy who did

it.

In sum, this is a traditional math book written in the traditional way. But

it is forward-looking, exciting, and innovative for the American curriculum. It

is mathematically exacting (although, in the interest of brevity and readability,

it falls short of proving everything), and it is also credible from the point of

view of applications. It is eminently readable, in a very straightforward and

no-nonsense manner. I like this book very much, and would be delighted to

teach from it. What higher praise could there be?

Steven G. Krantz, Mathematics Dept., Washington University in St. Louis, Box 1146,

One Brookings Dr., St. Louis, MO 631304899; sk@math.wustl.edu , http://

myprofile.cos.com/krantzs10 .

Banks, John, Valentina Dragan, and Arthur Jones. 2003. Chaos: A Mathematical

Introduction. New York: Cambridge University Press; 306 pp, $40. ISBN

0521531047.

Ott, Edward. 2002. Chaos in Dynamical Systems. 2nd ed. New York: Cambridge

University Press; 490 pp, $140, $60 (P). ISBN 0521811961, 0521010845.

Much of science is protected from public scrutiny by the recondite nature

of the enterprise. There is so much technical jargon, and the techniques are so

difcult and abstruse, that the layperson has no hope of beginning to penetrate

even the epidermis of a subject like epidemiology or high-energy physics. But

there are occasional chinks in the armor. And sometimes these occur because,

just by happenstance, a serious scientic subject is given a name that sounds

like something that would interest the butcher or the baker. Examples of this

phenomenon are relativity theory, the uncertainty principle, and chaos.

Flappers and playboys in the Roaring Twenties carried on witty cocktailparty badinage about the social relevance of relativity theory. Everything is

relative but Im sure glad that Im not related to you became an over-used

schoolyard joke. No less an eminence grise than Carl Gustav Jung became obsessed with the lack of verisimilitude that the Heisenberg uncertainty principle

suggested; he develops his ideas in extenso in Jung [1955]. He tells in particular

of his memorable sh day. The story is that he got up that morning and his

wife served him kippers for breakfast. Walking to work, he tripped and fell

over a cod that the shmonger had dropped on the sidewalk. Arriving at the

ofce, he met an old patient who bore a gift for hima wall hanging depicting

476

a sh. And on it went. Jung had a total of seven sh incidents that day. His

conclusion was that this was a manifestation of the uncertainty principlefor

what were the odds that such a conuence of seafood would actually happen?2

Today we enjoy similar exhilaration over chaos. The movie Jurassic Park

features a chaoticist (played by Jeff Goldblum). The uneducated are fascinated by the possibility that the ap of a buttery wing in Brazil could cause a

tsunami in Japannever mind that the effects of the wing ap would dissipate

in about 12 inches. The notion that life is chaotic, and that the physicists can

prove it to be so, evokes a certain giddy delirium.

About 15 years ago, the fractal theorists were fond of saying that fractals are

the footprint of chaos. Assuming that chaos theory has some legitimacy, such

a claim would lend credibility to fractal theory. However, even a cursory look

at phase space shows the allegation to be hogwash. Nevertheless, the idea that

very small perturbations in initial conditions can cause wild deviations in longterm behavior of solutions to differential equations (this is the working mans

denition of chaos) is both physically important and captivating. Surely this

concept is worthy of study.

From my own solipsistic point of view, the chaos/fractal phenomenon is

a remarkable chapter in our social history. As we know, the world is full of

mathematical amateurs. And Im not talking about latent Fermats. Rather, I

speak of people with some mathematical talent but not a lot of training. They

would like to think that they could keep up with a bit of modern mathematics, but there really is no hope. There are not many of useven professional

mathematicianswho can get past the rst page of Andrew Wiless proof of

Fermats Last Theorem, perhaps fewer who will be able to comprehend Grisha

Perelmans putative proof of the Poincare conjecture. Imagine the frustration

of the mathematical amateur. But fractals and chaos are special. They are

obviously something new and hotIBM used to feature them on its television adsand something that practically anyone can understand. Better still,

almost anyone can boot up software and play around with fractals and begin to convince themselves that they are doing mathematics. No wonder that

Heinz Otto Peitgen and Benoit Mandelbrot seem so much like the Pied Piper

of Hamelin: they are chasing us Ph.D. rats out of town and establishing power

for the mathematical people.

In any event, chaos is a facade for a serious set of ideas, and that is the theory

of dynamical systems. We can be grateful that the book of Banks, Dragan, and

Jones (BDJ) presents the subject in just that way: Their title may be Chaos, but

the book is about iteration of functions, bifurcations, periodic orbits, sensitive

dependence on initial data, and all the usual ideas that we associate with this

solid and central mathematical enterprise.

The book BDJ has several notable features. The authors wish to present their

subject to students with minimal preparationeven students who dont quite

know what a proof is. The only prerequisites for reading this book are calculus

2 Persi

Diaconis has set up a probabilistic model for this situation. He has calculated that in a

lifetime of about 40 years, the probability of a seven-fold coincidence like this is about .5.

Reviews

477

the joys of teaching this material to an audience of this sort is that the subject

is current, exciting, and has manifold applications. In point of fact, BDJ says

little about applications (contrast, for example, the lovely book [STR]), and also

gives little sense of the history of, or the immediacy of, the ideas that they are

presenting. Most of their historical allusions are paeans to Poincarewhich is

certainly ne with me. I simply think that BDJ perhaps promised to deliver a

bit more than they were actually able to muster.

The book BDJ has much to recommend it:

crisp, clean graphics without a lot of distracting and irrelevant pictures of

fractals;

lots of accessible and carefully-worked-out examples; and

lucid, well-organized, and well-written prose.

Of utmost importanceand something that I admire greatly in good textbook

writersis that the authors have a clear sense of their audience and are consistent in addressing that audience. There are some mathematical novelties

compared to other texts in the subject. For example, the authors show how

to use the Schwarzian derivative (a moderately abstruse idea from complex

function theory) to detect chaos. Most of the material in BDJ is down-to-earth

and straightforward and just right for the untutored audience that the authors

have in mind. The book is well-organized and well-planned and would be a

pleasure to use in the classroom.

The book by Ott is a different sort of effort. First of all, it is the second edition

of a classic text. It is considerable more ambitious than BDJ, having over 50%

more pages. It covers many more classical and well-established (some might

say more central) topics. These include

the Smale horseshoe,

Lyapunov exponents,

stable and unstable manifolds,

higher-dimensional systems,

chaotic scattering, and

control and synchronization of chaos.

There are many more. Although Ott fails to describe the intended audience,

one deduces that this book is meant for a rather more sophisticated audience

than the readers of BDJ. Otts book has fewer examples, fewer elementary

calculations, and more rigorous and thorough proofs and discussions than

those that can be found in BDJ. The prerequisites for Otts book (which, more

is the pity, he also does not bother to enunciate for us) appear to include linear

478

algebra, perhaps some real analysis, and also some knowledge of differential

equations.

Otts book shares some of the nice features of BDJ: clean and effective graphics, good exercise sets, and clear writing. Ott has end-of-chapter notes, a nice

scholarly feature that is both enlightening and entertaining. He has a much

more thorough bibliography than does BDJ.

Both BDJ and Ott are serious efforts by serious scholars to bring students

into the fold of chaos study. I would say that Ott brings his readers much closer

to the re. BDJ reach down to a pretty naive audience and inculcate them with

some mathematical literacy. Ott takes that literacy for granted and pushes his

followers quite a bit further.

Both these books are worthy implementations of the text-writing art. Both

would be rewarding to use in a class. Both are reliable and thorough and timely.

I can recommend them with pleasure.

References

Jung, C.G. 1955. Synchronicity: An Acausal Connectivity Principle. New York:

Pantheon Books.

Strogatz, S.H. 1994. Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos. Reading, MA: AddisonWesley.

Steven G. Krantz, Mathematics Dept., Washington University in St. Louis, Box 1146,

One Brookings Dr., St. Louis, MO 631304899; sk@math.wustl.edu , http://

myprofile.cos.com/krantzs10 .

Kaplan, Wilfred. 1999. Maxima and Minima with Applications: Practical Optimization and Duality. New York: Wiley. x + 284, $99.95. ISBN 0471252891.

We have been lucky to get Prof. Kaplan (b. 1915) to review a couple of books

recently. Unfortunately, the eminent scholar who agreed to review this book

by Kaplan has not reported; but lacking a review, I offer a brief mention here,

which the book denitely merits. While it is accessible to undergraduates, it is

ideal for many graduate students and should be regarded as a graduate text.

Any graduate student of operations research will almost certainly benet from

the book, as will anyone with a serious interest in optimization.

James M. Cargal, Mathematics Dept., Troy State University Montgomery, Montgomery, AL 361210667; jmcargal@sprintmail.com .

Annual Index

479

Author Index

Acknowledgments. 24(4): 483.

Annual Index. 24(4): 479482.

Arney, Chris. Results of the 2003 Interdisciplinary Contest in Modeling. 24(1): 97110.

Ashline, George, Alain Brizard, and Joanna Ellis-Monaghan. Water rockets in ight:

Calculus in action. UMAP/ILAP Modules 200203: Tools for Teaching: 151188.

Banister, Melissa J., Matthew Macauley, and Micah J. Smukler. Thinking outside the

box and over the elephant. 24(3): 253264.

Berkove, Ethan, Thomas Hill, and Scott Moor. Getting the salt out. 24(4): 417431.

Blunk, Mark. See Winstrom, Luke.

Brizard, Alain Brizard. See Ashline, George.

Campbell, Paul J. Acknowledgments. 24(4): 483.

. Environmental modeling: Not just a senior elective any more. 24(2): 9395.

. Explore the universe: Through issues of The UMAP Journal. 24(1): 12.

. Guide for Authors. 24(1): 9192; UMAP/ILAP Modules 200203: Tools for

Teaching: 189190.

. We have already been to the future. 24(4): 393394.

. See Garfunkel, Sol.

Cassady, C. Richard. Judges Commentary: The Outstanding Airport Screening papers.

24(2): 185188.

Corwin, Ivan, Sheel Ganatra, and Nikita Rozenblyum. A time-independent model of

box safety for stunt motorcyclists. 24(3): 235252.

Coskey, Sam. See Winstrom, Luke.

Deng Xiaowei, Xu Wei, and Zhang Zhenyu. You too can be James Bond. 24(3): 265282.

Diaz, Carlos A. See Livesey, Michelle R.

Edlund, Jeffrey A. See Kishimoto, Chad T.

Ellis-Monaghan, Joanna. See Ashline, George.

Errata. 24(4): 484.

Esser, Ernie. See Giansiracusa, Jeffrey.

Fitzkee, Thomas L. Tuition prepayment plan. 24(1): 5378.

Fox, William P. Judges Commentary: The Outstanding Stunt Person papers. 24(3):

319324.

. See Pike, Lisa.

Ganatra, Sheel Ganatra. See Corwin, Ivan.

Garfunkel, Sol, and Paul J. Campbell. Introduction. UMAP/ILAP Modules 200203: Tools

for Teaching: vvi.

. Secondaryundergraduate articulation: Moving forward 24(3): 193198.

Giansiracusa, Jeffrey, Ernie Esser, and Simon Pai. Cardboard comfortable when it comes

to crashing. 24(3): 283300.

480

Gillis, Darin W., David R. Lindstone, and Aaron T. Windeld. The gamma knife problem.

24(3): 353365.

Giordano, Frank. Results of the 2003 Contest in Mathematical Modeling. 24(3): 199220.

Greenberg, Kyle Andrew. See Powell, Michael Alan.

Grove, Sarah, Chris Jones, and Joel Lepak. Shoot to kill! 24(3): 381390.

Guide for Authors. 24(1): 9192; 24(2): 195196. UMAP/ILAP Modules 200203: Tools

for Teaching: 189190.

Haining, Robert T., Dana M. Lindemann, and Neal P. Richardson. Feds with EDS:

Searching for the optimal explosive scanning system. 24(2): 169184.

Hill, Thomas. See Berkove, Ethan.

Hu Yuxiao, Hua Zheng, and Zhou Enlu. Fly with Condence. 24(3): 301318.

Hua Zheng. See Hu Yuxiao.

Hughes, Frank. See Scharf, John L.

Isihara, Paul Atsusi, Benjamin Noonan, and Nathaniel Stapleton. Liouvilles theorem

in dynamics. UMAP/ILAP Modules 200203: Tools for Teaching: 4968.

Jacobson, Sheldon H., and John E. Kobza. Authors Commentary: Aviation security

baggage screening strategies: To screen or not to screen, that is the question! 24(2):

189194.

Jarrow, Tate Alan. See Powell, Michael Alan.

Johnson, Kylan Neal. See Olson, Gary Allen.

Kao, Justin C. See Kishimoto, Chad T.

Kelly, Susan E., and James S. Walker. Efcient signal transmission and wavelet-based

compression. 24(4): 395416.

Kishimoto, Chad T., Justin C. Kao, and Jeffrey A. Edlund. Safe landings. 24(3): 221234.

Kobza, John E. See Jacobson, Sheldon H.

Lindemann, Dana M. See Haining, Robert T.

Lindstone, David R. See Gillis, Darin W..

Liukkonen, John R., and Laura J. Steinberg. Chloroform alert! University students

exposed to unhealthy air. UMAP/ILAP Modules 200203: Tools for Teaching: 105124.

Liukonnen, John R. [misspelled name] See Liukkonen, John R.

Livesey, Michelle R., Carlos A. Diaz, and Terrence K. Williams. Advancing airport

security through optimization and simulation. 24(2): 141152.

Long Yun, Ye Yungqing, and Wei Zhen. A sphere-packing model for the optimal treatment plan. 24(3): 341352.

Martin, Tara, Gautam Thatte, and Michael Vrable. How I learned to stop worrying and

nd the bomb. 24(2): 123140.

Macauley, Matthew. See Banister, Melissa J.

Mitchell, Kevin, and James Ryan. Game theory models of animal behavior. UMAP/ILAP

Modules 200203: Tools for Teaching: 148.

Moor, Scott. See Berkove, Ethan.

Noonan, Benjamin. See Isihara, Paul Atsusi.

Annual Index

481

Olson, Gary Allen, Kylan Neal Johnson, and Joseph Paul Rasca. Airport baggage screening: Optimizing the implementation of EDS machines. 24(2): 111122.

Pai, Simon Pai. See Giansiracusa, Jeffrey.

Pike, Lisa, and William P. Fox. Stocking a sh pond. UMAP/ILAP Modules 200203:

Tools for Teaching: 7790.

. Survival of early Americans. UMAP/ILAP Modules 200203: Tools for Teaching:

91104.

Powell, Michael Alan, Tate Alan Jarrow, and Kyle Andrew Greenberg. The price of

security: A cost-benet analysis of screening of checked baggage. 24(2): 153168.

Puckette, Emily E. The spread of forest res. 24(4): 417433.

Rasca, Joseph Paul. See Olson, Gary Allen.

Reviews. 24(1): 7990; 24(4): 473478.

Reviews Index. 23(4): 482.

Richardson, Neal P. See Haining, Robert T.

Rozenblyum, Nikita. See Corwin, Ivan.

Ryan, James. See Mitchell, Kevin.

Scharf, John L., and Frank Hughes. Going into orbitLaunching the Shuttle. UMAP/ILAP

Modules 200203: Tools for Teaching: 125150.

Sigmon, Neil P. Determination of satellite orbits with vector calculus. 24(1): 2752.

Small, Don. See Yu, Lei.

Smukler, Micah J. See Banister, Melissa J.

Stapleton, Nathaniel. See Isihara, Paul Atsusi.

Statement of Ownership, Management, and Circulation. 24(3): [391][392].

Steinberg, Laura J. See Liukkonen, John R.

Sun Fei, Yang Lin, and Wang Hong. The genetic algorithm-based optimization approach

for gamma unit treatment. 24(3): 325340.

Teets. Donald A. Predicting opportunities for viewing the International Space Station.

24(1): 326.

Thatte, Gautam. See Martin, Tara.

Vanisko, Marie. Who falls through the healthcare safety net? UMAP/ILAP Modules

200203: Tools for Teaching: 6976.

Vrable, Michael. See Martin, Tara.

Walker, James S. See Kelly, Susan E.

Wang Hong. See Sun Fei.

Wei Zhen.See Long Yun.

Williams, Terrence K. See Livesey, Michelle R.

Windeld, Aaron T. See Gillis, Darin W.

Winstrom, Luke, Sam Coskey, and Mark Blunk. Shelling tumors with caution and

wiggles. 24(3): 367380.

Xu Wei. See Deng Xiaowei.

Yang Lin. See Sun Fei.

482

Yu, Lei, and Don Small. Vehicle emissions. 24(4): 451472.

Zhang Zhenyu. See Deng Xiaowei.

Zhou Enlu. See Hu Yuxiao.

Reviews Index

(Names of authors are in plain type; names of reviewers are in bold.)

Banks, John, Valentina Dragan, and Arthur Jones. Chaos: A Mathematical Introduction.

Steven G. Krantz. 24(4): 475478.

Biggs, Norman L. 1995. Discrete Mathematics. 2nd ed. James M. Cargal. 24(1): 8487.

Giordano, Frank R., Maurice D. Weir, and William P. Fox. A First Course in Mathematical

Modeling. 3rd ed. David Bressoud. 24(1): 7980.

Gordon, Hugh. Discrete Probability. James M. Cargal. 24(1): 8487.

Haggarty, Rod. Discrete Mathematics for Computing. James M. Cargal. 24(1): 8487.

Hubbard, John H., and Barbara Burke Hubbard. Vector Calculus, Linear Algebra, and

Differential Forms: A Unied Approach. 2nd ed. David Bressoud. 24(1): 81.

James, J.F. 1995. A Students Guide to Fourier Transforms: With Applications in Physics and

Engineering. Steven G. Krantz. 24(1): 8283.

Kaplan, Wilfred. Maxima and Minima with Applications: Practical Optimization and Duality.

James M. Cargal. 24(4): 478.

King, A.C., J. Billingham, and S.R. Otto. Differential Equations: Linear, Nonlinear, Ordinary,

Partial. Steven G. Krantz. 24(4): 473475.

Martin, George E. The Art of Enumerative Combinatorics. James M. Cargal. 24(1): 8487.

Maurer, Stephen B., and Anthony Ralston. Discrete Algorithmic Mathematics. 2nd ed.

James M. Cargal. 24(1): 8487.

Ott, Edward. Chaos in Dynamical Systems. 2nd ed. Steven G. Krantz. 24(4): 475478.

Ross, Sheldon M. Topics in Finite and Discrete Mathematics. James M. Cargal. 24(1):

8487.

Salsburg, David. The Lady Tasting Tea. James M. Cargal. 24(1): 8790.

Sandefur, James T. 2003. Elementary Mathematical Modeling: A Dynamic Approach. David

Bressoud. 24(1): 7980.

Tucker, Alan. 1995. Applied Combinatorics. 3rd ed. James M. Cargal. 24(1): 8487.

Annual Index

483

Acknowledgments

I would like to express my great appreciation for the help of the associate editors,

whose names appear on the masthead. Not only do they do the bulk of work of evaluating manuscripts, but they also solicit new works and encourage and guide potential

authors.

I am also indebted to the additional individuals listed below who have reviewed

manuscripts during the past year. Their careful evaluation and judgment have enhanced

the quality of the articles and Modules that have appeared in the Journal and in Tools

for Teaching. (Reviewers of some papers considered for Vol. 24 of the Journal were

acknowledged already in Vol. 23, No. 4. Reviewers and editors of the ILAP Modules in

UMAP/ILAP Modules 200203: Tools for Teaching are acknowledged on the frontispiece

of the corresponding ILAP Module.)

The Journal offers many opportunities for participation in COMAPs work. If you

would like to

referee manuscriptsplease contact me;

review books, software, or lmsplease contact the Reviews Editor;

write a self-contained expository essay about an area of mathematics, however grand

or smallan era, a concept, a theorem, an idea, a termplease contact the On Jargon

Editor;

contribute an Interdisciplinary Lively Applications Project (ILAP) Moduleplease

contact the ILAP Editor;

contribute an article, UMAP Module, or Minimoduleplease contact me;

encourage and stimulate colleagues to prepare and submit suitable materialplease

contact me about being nominated to join the Editorial Board.

Contact information for the associate editors in charge of Reviews, On Jargon, and

ILAPs, as well as my own information, are on the masthead of every issue.

Finally, the associate editors and I would like to thank the Journals authors, without

whom none of this would be possible, and its readers, whose benet and enjoyment are

the culmination of our enterprise.

Paul J. Campbell, Editor

Bruce Atwood, Beloit College

Eric Bach, University of Wisconsin

Steven J. Brams, New York University

Russell Goodman and Christy Nichting, Central College

Steven Janke, Colorado College

Herve Moulin, Rice University

Fred Solomon, Warren Wilson College

Paul Stanley, Beloit College

Alan Taylor, Union College (NY)

David Vessey, Beloit College

Jack Winn, SUNY at Farmingdale

David Wolfe, Gustavus Adolphus College

484

Errata

Vol. 23, No. 1 (2002)

p. 76, , l. 18: group The group

Vol. 23, No. 2 (2002)

p. 124, l. 1: p

n1

i=0

m1 k 1 + i i

k1+i i

k

q p

q

i=0

i

i

p. 131, ll. 3, 6, and 8: delete last two ]] in each assignment

p. 132, l. 18: (If F>0, (If [F>0,

p. 133, l. 10: should read

Basket[a_] := If[a[[1]]>0,

SortInOrder

[If[SortInOrder[Sack[a]][[1]]>0,

SortInOrder[Sack[SortInOrder[Sack[a]]]]

Sack[a]]],

a]

or alternatively and more simply via recursion,

Basket[a_} := Decreaser[[Decreaser[a]]

where

Decreaser[a_]:=If[a[[1]]>0,SortInOrder[Sack[a]],a]

p. 148, l. 3, and p. 160, l. 11: Franics Francis

p. 163, sidebar, and p. 182, l. 9: Liukonnen Liukkonen

p. 172, l. 12, eq. (16): , dr dr,

Vol. 23, No. 4 (2002)

p. 416: The following reference was omitted:

Thayer, William T. 1983. The St. Louis Arch. UMAP Modules in Undergraduate

Mathematics and Its Applications: Module 638. The UMAP Journal 4(3): 347

365. 1984. Reprinted in UMAP Modules 1983: Tools for Teaching, 446464.

Lexington, MA: COMAP.

p. 456, l. 2: insert afliaton: Kansas State University

UMAP/ILAP Modules 20022003: Tools for Teaching

p. [iii] [Table of Contents], l. 7; p. 124, l. 9; and back cover, l. 7:

Liukonnen Liukkonen

Vol. 24, No. 1 (2003)

p. 54, l. 10: delete: (see Table 1)

p. 79, l. 3: delete: Elementary

Vol. 24, No. 3 (2003)

p. 193: Pagination of this issue should have begun with p. 197.

p. 265, Abstract, l. 14: that assume assume that

p. 271, l. 12: 2/3 1/3.

p. 274, l. 1: P0 (V0 0 dt P0 (V0 0 dt)

p. 277, l. 3: hHpile h Hpile

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