Hydrology for Floodplain Analysis

Presented by
Z. John Licsko, PE, CFM

Global Water Cycle Hydrological Analysis

Distribution and movement of water on, above and below earth surface in liquid, vapor, &
solid states Hydrologic Cycle
Conservation of Mass: Inflow (I) Outflow (O) = Change in storage (S)

Watershed Scale Hydrologic Processes

Initial Abstractions (up to 4 inches under

healthy forest stands)
Infiltration - Function of soil texture, thickness
and structure highest rates usually found
under forested areas
Depression Storage ability to store water on
the soil surface again forested soils
Interception/Evapo-Transpiration
Baseflow perennial flow
Interflow shallow subsurface flows
Surface Runoff - water that is not infiltrated or
or otherwise stored.

Floodplain Analysis Methodology

Hydrology
Collect Stream Gage Data (annual peak)
Gage Analysis
Regression Analysis( (ungaged sites)
Rainfall Runoff Models (calibrated to gage

data, discharges based on rainfall)

Analyze Data Probability, Statistics

Watershed Scale Flood Study

Hydrology, Ungaged Sites

USGS New York StreamStats

USGS New York StreamStats Results

USGS Gage Locations

Discharge Measurements

Flooding in Natural Streams

Unsteady Flow
Mixed flow regime (sub-critical, critical

and super critical)

Non homogeneous fluid (air and

sediment mixes with water)

Floating debris

Hydrology Hydraulics and

Floodplain Mapping Process

Hydrology

Hydraulics

Floodplain

Hydrology used in Hydraulic Analysis

Recurrence Interval - actual number of years between floods
100-year flood 1% chance in a year
500-year flood 0.2% chance in a year
10, 25 and 50 year profiles
Purely Statistical Designation

there can be multiple 100-year floods in a given year

Limitations on the use of

Regression Equations
Regulated Watersheds
Overbank Storage Swamps/Wetlands
Drainage Area Outside Recommended Limits
Recently Developed Watersheds
Need for in-depth Hydrologic Analysis (i.e. urban

areas)

Ignores difference in watershed shapes

Applicable FEMA Publications

FEMA Guidelines and Standards for Flood Hazard
Mapping Partners
Volume 1: Flood Studies and Mapping
Appendix I: Discovery
Appendix C: Guidance for Riverine Flooding Analyses and
Mapping

FEMA Procedure Memorandum 59, Guidance for

Implementation of Watershed-Based Studies,

Selection of suitable hydrologic methods

Methodology

Suitability

Gage Analysis

At gage locations/ sufficient length of

record

Regression
Equations

Watershed
Models

Ungauged locations, unregulated

watersheds
Regulated/ Urbanized watersheds.
Calibration is needed

Guidelines for Riverine Flooding Analysis & Mapping - Appendix C, FEMA, Nov, 2009

Approved Methodologies
Gage Analysis (Preferred)
Uses observed annual peak discharge from USGS and other gage locations
Data is analyzed using statistical procedures outlined in Bulletin 17B also

referred to as a LPIII analysis (PeakFQ program is used)

Need a minimum of 10 years of homogeneous data

Can be transferred upstream and downstream of the gage location

Regression
Ungaged locations
Multiple regression analysis
Usually published by USGS (For NY this SIR 2006-5122, includes data to 1999)

Approved Methodologies Continued

Rainfall Runoff Modeling
Usually HEC-HMS or HEC-1
FEMAs accepted models list includes a number of others

Esopus Watershed has two examples of Effective Rainfall Models

Stony Clove in Greene County -TR20
Esopus HEC-1
Both have use old TP-40 rainfall totals

Esopus Rainfall Runoff Model (HEC-HMS)

Reasons to Revise Existing Hydrologic Analysis

Reflect Longer periods of record or data revisions
Effective hydrology on part of the Esopus (calibrated HEC-1- 1 gage, new model
use 6 gages ) and Stony Clove in Green County (TR-20 1982, probably uncalibrated since little or no gage data (approximate in Ulster County also gaged.
( HEC-HMS rainfall change (Cornell data updates to TP-40), more gages,

Reflect changed physical conditions

For example, construction of a dam

To take advantage of improved hydrologic analysis

HEC-HMS

To correct an error in the effective hydrologic analysis

Important Riverine Floodplain Terms

100-YEAR FLOODPLAIN- area subject inundation during a 100-

year flood

FLOODWAY- channel and adjacent areas reserved to discharge

the 100-year flood without cumulatively increasing water surface

elevation more than a foot

ENCROACHMENT- man-made obstruction to natural conveyance

of flood waters

SURCHARGE - increase in flood elevation due to destruction of

floodplain conveyance capacity

Riverine Flood Plain, Floodway Schematic

Runoff

Runoff

Questions?