Ranges (Up till 11.

40am HKT)
Currency

chatter of buy orders 119.50 to 119.30 and stops

thereafter.

Currency

EURUSD

1.12075-47

EURJPY

134.33-89

USDJPY

119.87-120.11

EURGBP

0.7383-91

GBPUSD

1.5172-1.5218

USDSGD

1.4313-29

USDCHF
AUDUSD

0.9696-0.9720
0.7043-80

USDTHB
USDKRW

36.40-47
1169.1-1174.9

NZDUSD

0.6430-73

USDTWD

32.76-33.156

USDCAD

1.3132-75

USDCNH

6.3569-6.3645

AUDNZD

1.0910-51

XAU

1136.6-1139.4

Key Headlines

Post-NFP, talks are surfacing that other central

banks may have to cut rates. RBA meets
tomorrow, our strategist Bipan Rai/Patrick
Bennett said they see no change just yet, but to
watch for dovish tones. AFR said increasing
number of economists do think the RBA will cut
before the end of the year. BOJ maybe not
touch on rates this week and increasing
possibility more QE at Oct 30 meeting. Next
MAS.
The exit polls out of Portugal is showing ruling
centre-right government is heading for victory
but failed to secure a majority in parliament.
This leads to a potentially unstable minority
government.
From the weekend, Russia and Saudi Arabia
have both indicated they werent pulling back
from huge crude output levels. Today Saudi
Arabia has cut oil prices.

FX Flows
Not an exciting start for the week. The exit polls out of
Portugal is showing ruling centre-right government is
heading for victory but failed to secure a majority in
parliament. This leads to a potentially unstable minority
government.
There isnt much to pen in Euro. Traded 1.12075-47,
started the session from low side. I heard bids are
gathering 1.1150-70 are and only a break below 1.1140
will set off alarms of systematic funds. Offers are light;
better sellers at 1.1320-40.
Nikkei is in positive, thanks to Wall Street and also
buoyed by the prospect for a TPP agreement but UsdJpy
is facing trouble heading up. Some people said offers are
largely Japanese names Matt Ma from our option desk
said he saw Japanese accounts selling 1-month 123strikes this morning. This may come from the margin
accounts. Usual systematic stops are seen above 120.20;

From Patrick Bennett: Australia Sept TD Sec Inflation up

0.3% m/m and up 1.9% annually; both up 2-tenths
versus previous numbers. This has been a well-followed
data and at face value, suggesting some return of prices,
which, follows RBA expectations of inflation. The central
bank meets tomorrow and we do not expect any cut in
rates; Aud giving them some comfort but at least expect
a cautious outlook.
AudUsd was touch higher into mid-day trading; mild
stops were taken out at 0.7065 but nothing inspiring. In
the rates space, yield spreads are indicating higher
AudUsd, possibly 0.7285. Interesting offers seen above
that.
If we look at interest rates, yield differentials telling us
UsdCad should be into the 1.26s. If we compare to the
Brent Futures, UsdCad is fair value. We encountered
bids planted in platforms from 1.3150 to 1.3145. Bank
out of Wellington was responsible for clearing the bids
but UsdCad bounced on weak oil futures opening, guess
market reacted to Saudi Arabia cutting oil prices. Oil
futures pared lows and allowed UsdCad revisited the low
where we saw an American bank on the bid. Lowest we
saw 1.3132.

Asians
Overall, Usd/Asia is mixed.
Onshore spot UsdKrw opened at 1173.2 and slipped
quickly to 1169.1 then started reversing higher despite
Kospi firming up. South Korea Finance Minister Choi
said he sees downside risk to Governments 3.1% growth
forecast and he wasnt to keep expansionary policy
stance throughout 2016.
The onshore spot UsdMyr slightly lower as traders are
rather cautious about the next MGS maturity, which is
on Oct 15 with notional Myr8.23bn.
UsdSgd opened at 1.4320; I was told buying came from
system funds but only managed high 1.4329. Positive
Straits Times Index and UsdSgd pared back to 1.4315.
MAS has yet to firm up the date for GDP and SemiAnnual Monetary Policy review (sometime between Oct
7-14). Macro names we spoke to see MAS will re-centre
and likely to move the slope to neutral.

Who said what

Portugal Socialist leader Costa: Didnt reach

election victory
Portugal Socialist leader Costa: Didnt reach
objectives for election

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

Portugal Socialist leader Costa: Will not step

down
Portugal Coelho: Coalition did not get
parliament majority
New Zealand Treasury: NZ may grow less than
2% in 2015
New Zealand Treasury: Economy may expand at
0.6% per quarter during H2 2015
New Zealand Treasury: Possibility of drought
conditions is elevated
New Zealand Treasury: Drought could curb
exports and GDP growth
South Korea Finance Minister Choi: Sees
downside risk to Governments 3.1% growth
forecast
South Korea Finance Minister Choi: To keep
expansionary policy stance throughout 2016
BOK Lee: Revised 2015 growth forecast to be
largely in line with 2.8%
World Bank: Cuts China 2015 GDP forecast to
6.9% from 7.1%
World Bank: Cuts Thailand 2015 GDP forecast
to 2.5% from 3.5%
World Bank: Cuts Indonesia 2015 GDP forecast
to 4.7% from 5.2%
World Bank: Keeps Malaysia 2015 GDP forecast
at 4.7%
World Bank: Cuts 2015 Philippine GDP forecast
to 5.8% from 6.5%

News & Data

South Korea Sept Foreign Reserves $368.11bn

from $367.94bn
Australia Sept AiG Performance of Services
Index slipped to 52.3 from 55.6
Australia Sept TD Sec Inflation Index M/M up
0.3% from 0.1%
Australia Sept TD Sec Inflation Index Y/Y +1.9%
from +1.7%
Australia Sept ANZ Job Ads 3.9% vs 1.0%
Japan Sept Nikkei Services PMI 51.4 from 53.7
Japan Sept Nikkei Composite PMI 51.2 from
52.9

Nikkei: World Bank trims 2015, 2016 East Asia

forecasts, cites China, US rate risks
The World Bank cut its 2015 and 2016 growth forecasts
for developing East Asia and Pacific, and said the
outlook was clouded by the risk of a sharp slowdown in
China and possible spill overs from expected increases in
U.S. interest rates. World Bank said the downward
revisions to regional growth forecasts mainly reflect a
moderate slowdown in China's economy, which it sees

growing 6.9 percent in 2015 and 6.7 percent in 2016,

down from 7.3 percent in 2014.
http://asia.nikkei.com/PoliticsEconomy/Economy/World-Bank-trims-2015-2016-EastAsia-forecasts-cites-China-US-rate-risks
WSJ: Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal
Within Reach, Officials Say
The U.S. and 11 countries around the Pacific were in the
home stretch Sunday on talks to complete a sweeping
trade agreement that would lower barriers to goods and
services and set commercial rules of the road for twofifths of the worlds economy.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/countries-inch-towardtrans-pacific-partnership-trade-deal-1443974873
FastFT: Case for BOJ easing picks up as wages
stagnate
Japan's tight labour market still isn't producing the sort
of inflationary pressures so desired by Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan. Labour cash earnings
grew 0.5 per cent year-on-year in August, down from a
0.9 per cent reading in July and missing forecasts of a
0.6 per cent rise. Taking inflation into account, real cash
earnings rose only 0.2 per cent, down from 0.5 per cent
in July, according to data from the Ministry of Health,
Labour and Welfare.
http://www.ft.com/intl/fastft/401661
Telegraph on Bernanke: More executives should
have been prosecuted for financial crisis
More executives should have been sent to prison for the
roles they played in the financial crisis, Ben Bernanke,
the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, has said. He
has told USA Today he would have preferred that the US
Justice Department and other law enforcement agencies
that probed the crash had concentrated further on
individuals, not just on financial institutions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/bank
sandfinance/11911397/Bernanke-More-executivesshould-have-been-prosecuted-for-financial-crisis.html
Business Times: New issues of emerging market
bonds sliding
Bond Radar, which collects the latest data and
information on the international bond market, calculates
that issues of new government and corporate EM bonds
in dollars, euros and yen fell markedly in the third
quarter of 2015. The firm estimates that new Asian, Latin
American and CEEMEA international bond issues
slumped to US$55 billion in the third quarter of 2015
from US$95 billion in the same period the previous year.
"This level falls way short of the US$97 billion thirdquarter average for the three previous years," the firm
notes.

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/bankingfinance/new-issues-of-emerging-market-bonds-sliding
The Telegraph on Federal Reserve interest rate
rise: Why you should be watching the people, not
the data
So, if the usual domestic economic data are less
important to interest rate decisions than they once were,
what should Fed-watchers be watching? One answer
might be the people making the decision the men and
women on the FOMC. Interestingly, this will be going
through some big changes in the coming months.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/119072
93/Federal-Reserve-interest-rate-rise-Why-you-shouldbe-watching-the-people-not-the-data.html
Ben Bernanke in WSJ: How the Fed Saved the
Economy
For the first time in nearly a decade, the Federal Reserve
is considering raising its target interest rate, which
would end a long period of near-zero rates. Like the
cessation of large-scale asset purchases in October 2014,
that action will be an important milestone in the
unwinding of extraordinary monetary policies, adopted
during my tenure as Fed chairman, to help the economy
recover from a historic financial crisis. As such, its a
good time to evaluate the results of those measures, and
to consider where policy makers should go from here.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-fed-saved-theeconomy-1443996826?mod=wsj_nview_latest
WSJ: Glencore Oil Deals Could Bite Banks
A deal struck last year between Glencore PLC and the
government of Chad sent $1.4 billion to the African
country as an up-front payment for four years of oil
shipments. Now, uncertainties over the transaction,
which was financed by bank lending, and troubles with
other similar deals are shedding light on how Glencores
energy business has taken some banks into risky areas
that are causing jitters as commodity prices fall. At least
seven banks signed on to the three-party arrangement
with Chad, which was struck when a barrel of crude was
trading near $100.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/glencore-oil-deals-couldbite-banks-1443989065
FT: Indonesia Inc faces tough time rolling over
debts
Concern over external debt in corporate Indonesia is
mounting as companies seek to roll over more than
$42bn of foreign currency loans within the next 12
months, following a period of steep rupiah depreciation.
External debt is a red flag to investors. In Indonesia the
private sectors bill has doubled since 2010 to $169.2bn
this July, according to the central bank. One of those
well-known challenges for Indonesia is the extent of

development of their capital markets, says Brian Grieser

at Moodys. The markets may not be able to absorb the
larger refinancings.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/217ddeb4-68c9-11e597d0-1456a776a4f5.html#axzz3ncfT5E10
WSJ: Portugals Ruling Coalition Finishes First
in Parliamentary Election, Exit Polls Show
PM Pedro Passos Coelho, who oversaw a bailout
program that averted Portugals bankruptcy by imposing
harsh austerity on the country, led his Socialist rival by a
wide margin, but his center-right coalition may fall short
of a majority in parliamentary elections Sunday,
according to two exit polls. If Mr. Passos Coelhos slate
falls short of a majority, he could form a minority
government and seek support for his budget and other
bills from the Socialists, whose leader promised during
the campaign to adhere to eurozone standards of
financial discipline.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/portugals-ruling-coalitionfinishes-first-in-parliamentary-election-exit-polls-show1443987627
WSJ:
Volkswagen
Evaluating
Emissions
Scandals Impact on Companys Finances
Finance officials at embattled car maker Volkswagen AG
are evaluating the impact of an emissions-cheating
scandal on the companys finances and assessing
potential options should the crisis take a bigger toll
currently anticipated on its 25 billion net cash position,
people familiar with the matter said. Volkswagen
currently has 21.5 billion in cash and will boost that
figure in the near term to around 25 billion thanks to
recent sales of stakes in financing unit LeasePlan and
Japanese rival Suzuki. But some analysts think the sum
isnt enough.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-evaluatingemissions-scandals-impact-on-companys-finances1443980626?mod=wsj_nview_latest
Wolfgang Mnchau in FT: Volkswagens threat
to the German model
Most scandals blow over. Some blow up. Volkswagen
will be of the latter kind. The penalties and damages
resulting from VWs manipulation of emissions tests
could easily add up to more than 100bn. The total
economic costs would be a multiple of that, more than
what Germany would ever have faced from a Greek exit
from the eurozone.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/82315c6a-68fe-11e5a57f-21b88f7d973f.html#axzz3ncfT5E10
Telegraph: European Central Bank sued by 200
investors over Greek debt deal
The European Central Bank is being sued by more than
200 investors over its role in Greece's debt restructuring,

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

in a case which could pave the way for a raft of legal

action from the private sector. A group of Italian retail
investors are claiming damages in excess of 12m from
the ECB for an alleged violation of its "equal" creditor
status during the biggest private sector debt
restructuring in history in 2012.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/119074
90/European-Central-Bank-sued-by-200-investorsover-Greek-debt-deal.html
Nikkei: China's central bank can't leave currency
control lever alone
Beijing desperately wants to keep the yuan from
depreciating further while also internationalizing the
currency, but its actions don't appear to help achieve
either end. SAFE summoned currency market officials
from commercial banks about a month ago, telling them
not to give comments to customers that might sway rates
for the yuan. It is quite routine for a bank to provide an
outlook on exchange rates to customers. But the agency
feared that bank projections of a weaker yuan would
encourage selling of the currency, exacerbating
depreciation. The agency named and criticized banks
home to a high number of yuan-selling trades.
http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Currencies/China-scentral-bank-can-t-leave-currency-control-lever-alone
WSJ: Cameron Risks Digging Bigger Hole Over
EU
It is only five months since David Cameron won a
significant election victory, defying the polls and
surprising himself by securing an outright parliamentary
majority after five years of coalition government. Last
month, his traumatized opponents elected a far-left
maverick as their leader. As he heads to his partys
annual conference this week, the British prime minister
should be master of all he surveys. Instead, he finds
himself in a political hole. This hole is largely of his own
making.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/cameron-risks-diggingbigger-hole-over-eu-1443982860?
mod=wsj_nview_latest

Kathimerini: Fate of Greek govt and bailout

under scrutiny
The Greek economy is sliding back into recession as the
newly elected government prepares to legislate austerity
measures and structural reforms under the watch of the
countrys international lenders. At the same time,
pundits are split on whether the third bailout program
will be a success and the new coalition government will
be able to carry it out and survive. It is not an easy call.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/202182/opinion/ekathim
erini/business/fate-of-govt-and-bailout-under-scrutiny
WSJ: Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Prices Amid OPEC
Price War
Saudi Arabia on Sunday made deep reductions to the
prices it charges for its oil, hard on the heels of cuts last
month by rival producers in the Gulf. With U.S.
production still increasing despite lower oil prices,
members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries are battling to keep their share of the last
growing markets in Asia.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-cuts-oilprices-amid-opec-price-war-1443967741
FT: Thailand economic tsar pumps in billions
and hopes for hit sequel
The last time Somkid Jatusripitak was in charge of the
Thai economy he wooed foreign investors with tax
breaks and pumped billions of dollars into struggling
rural areas. Now he is back doing more of the same
but this time from the other side of the countrys deep
political divide. It is a measure of Thailands
unpredictable times that the ruling generals have
installed Mr Somkid, a one-time ally of Thaksin
Shinawatra, the patron of the government they
overthrew last year. The 16-month-old junta has tight
control over the countrys security but is dogged by
economic woes and fears of the threats to its authority
that these could spawn.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6ac7077c-6747-11e5a155-02b6f8af6a62.html#axzz3ncfT5E10

FT: Paper Tiger: Inside the Real China, by Xu

Zhiyuan
The world is obsessed as never before with the pace and
trajectory of economic growth in China, especially after a
botched stock market rescue and renminbi devaluation
dented global confidence in the leadership. But so long
as economic growth remains in striking distance of the
governments target of about 7 per cent, it is likely that
this years wobbles will soon be forgotten. Paper Tigers
subtitle could well have been: Its not just about the
economy, stupid.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/efd7823a-65f2-11e5a57f-21b88f7d973f.html#axzz3ncfT5E10
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.