Western

Demographics, Inc.
1750 30th St., #424, Boulder, CO 80301
303-877-7557

October 5, 2015
Dr. Brad Meeks, Superintendent
Steamboat Springs School District RE-2
325 7th Street
Steamboat Springs, CO 80487
Dear Dr. Meeks:
I have re-examined the School Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations
document provided by my firm on January 9th, 2015 within the context of actual enrollments
provided by your office earlier in September. My observations are as follows:
1. The district has grown 1.9 percent by approximately 47 students from last October.
2. The enrollment forecast provided at the time is fundamentally sound with the
exception of overall kindergarten enrollment with a shortage of 24 kindergarten
students when measured against the moderate or the middle forecast model in my
projections. The forecasting model used is a standard linear cohort survival school
enrollment projection based on my 31 years experience conducting this work in
Colorado. The district was forced to transfer 20 kindergarten students from Soda
Creek Elementary to Strawberry Park Elementary in order to alleviate overly-stressed
building functions at Soda Creek. The school-level forecast was not adjusted to
reflect this in my report.
3. Economic indicators for Routt County and the Steamboat Springs community in
general continue to be strong with an increase in employment from 13,694 (2013)
jobs to 13,852 (2014) jobs according to the Colorado Department of Labor.
4. Unemployment rates have declined from 5.8 percent in 2013 to a very low 4.2
percent in 2014.
5. I have requested 2014 birth data for the SSSD boundary from the Colorado
Department of Health and expect to obtain that data this week. Birth data for the
district is collected from this agency and not from the local hospital and I use this
source for all kindergarten and birth forecasting with all of my clients. High migration
communities such as Steamboat Springs tend to benefit more from kindergarten
trending than from birth rate correlation, but I continue to consider both. SSSD
kindergarten enrollment trends have been strongly upward during the past eight
years and, Nationwide, the average family moves every five years. Therefore, it is
frequently more important to closely follow kindergarten enrollment (which is more
tied to in-migration) while also monitoring birth rates. Colorados net in-migration for
adults aged 25 44 now ranks fifth Nationally up from 10th in the prior decade.
Colorado is alone among surrounding mountain states in this regard and the leading
attractor cited by new residents is quality of life, a factor that the SSSD community
has in abundance.
6. I have polled a few of my Steamboat Springs contacts who have observed favorable
economic conditions, but challenging housing prices for potential residents. In the
event that Steamboat 700 and other west-end developments are able to offer
affordable housing options, increased student enrollments could result.

Dr. Brad Meeks

October 5, 2015
Page 2
Based on these preliminary observations and other observations elsewhere in the State, I
would offer the following findings:
1. Although my original work is approaching one year in age, I continue to support the
five-year enrollment forecast ranges presented in my report.
2. With such a small kindergarten sample size, responding to a reduced kindergarten
enrollment in one year is problematic. The effect on five-year expectations should
involve significant care and potentially another year of data before re-forecasting for
long-range projections. Polling private kindergarten providers, who may have
expanded opportunities over the summer, may be valuable. Next years resulting
first grade enrollment could be impacted if private programs produce more students.
3. Other districts elsewhere in the State have been surprised by lower-than-expected
kindergarten enrollments this year and the school demographers involved are
working to develop hypotheses during the coming six months. Odd theories about
child production during recession years and other hypotheses are being tested.
4. The reputation of the school district continues to be a significant draw for the
Steamboat Springs community and 47 new students this year and the continuing
positive atmosphere will continue to draw families. National trends of in-migration to
States with high quality of life continue to point to SSSD as a long-term player.
5. It has been my opinion throughout this examination that the current conditions in the
two elementary schools are well past the breaking point just given existing
enrollment. Additional facilities are clearly necessary.
6. I am also convinced that existing conditions at the Middle School are significantly
strained and that the spaces and resources in the middle school building are
significantly below average Colorado specifications, especially for non-core academic
programs. Further, the non-core portion of the building is significantly below the
standards SSSD parents should expect. Non-core programs include music, physical
education, electives and world languages. Core academic programs: Math,
Language Arts, Social Studies and Science - are intensively scheduled in a tightlypacked classroom clusters in a building designed according to 1970s or 1980s
specifications. The Strawberry Park ES / Middle School Site is a significant
challenge from a transportation perspective with the only remedy being reduction in
traffic volume resulting from having fewer students on the site.
These observations and findings represent my best efforts to quickly examine conditions in
the district given limited time. It would be my desire to further network with other
professionals in Steamboat Springs, Routt County and elsewhere in the State before
changing my expectations of SSSD demographics during the next five years. At this point
in time, I continue to have confidence in the document provided by my firm on January 9th
for use as a decision support instrument for school facilities. Please let me know if I may
provide further information or assistance to the district.
Sincerely,

Shannon L. Bingham
President, Western Demographics, Inc