Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
ManagerRayDalios
6StepSuccessFormula
ByMichaelSimmonsAndIanChew
PhotoCredit:WorldEconomicForum/MoritzHager
Pleaseexcusetypos.ThisreportisaninformalsummaryofDaliosseminalebook,P
rinciples
Overview
Beatingthemarketconsistentlyforyearsisrare.Beatingitoverdecadesisalmostunheardof
outsideofafewoftheworldstopinvestors.
RayDalioisoneofthose.Overthelast20years,itsaveragereturnhasbeen
14.7%
,resulting
inatotalof$50billioncapitalgainsforitsinvestors.Daliosnetworthisestimatedtobe$15.2B
asofAugust7,2015
byForbes
,makinghim#30ontheForbes400listoftherichestpeoplein
America.
Investorstakelimitedresourcesandinvestthemforgain.Entrepreneursandbusinessleaders
dothesamething.Except,insteadofinvestingourmoneyinstocks,bonds,andcommodities,
weinvestourtime,ourpeoplestime,andourmoneyintotheprocessofproducingandselling
productsandservices.Manyofthecoreprinciplesoffinancialinvestingaretrueintheworldof
entrepreneurialinvesting.
Daliohascreatedasystematiclifeandbusinessphilosophy,whichhelaysoutin
Principles
.
Thisdocumentcondensesthe117pagemanifestointoastepbystepprocess.
HereshowyoucanbelikeDalioandcomeupwithindependentopinionsthatgoagainst
conventionalwisdomandcreateimmensegainsforyourself:
Step#1:CreateYourOwnGoals
First,Dalioseesindependentopinionswithintheframeworkofchoosingyourowngoalsrather
thanhavingthempassivelychosenforyou:
Whilemostothersseemtobelievethatlearningwhatwearetaughtisthepathto
success,Ibelievethatfiguringoutforyourselfwhatyouwantandhowtogetitisabetter
path...afterall,isntthepointoflearningtohelpyougetwhatyouwant?Sodontyou
havetostartwithwhatyouwantandfigureoutwhatyouhavetolearninordertogetit?
GoalSettingQuestions
Rayrecommendsyouaskyourselfthefollowquestionswhensettingyourgoals
Howwelldoyouknowwhatyouwantmostoutoflife?
Whatareyourmostimportantgoals?
Areyougoodatsettingyourgoals?
Howconfidentareyouthatyourassessmentofyourabilitytosetgoalsisright?
Ifyouareconfidentofyourselfassessment,whyshouldyoubeconfident(e.g.becauseyou
haveademonstratedtrackrecord,becausemanybelievablepeoplehavetoldyou,etc)?
RayGoalSettingTruisms
Youcanhavevirtuallyanythingyouwant,butyoucant
haveeverythingyouwant.
Toachieveyourgoalsyouhavetoprioritize,andthat
includesrejectinggoodalternatives.(sothatyouhave
thetimeandresourcestopursueevenbetteronestime
beingprobablyyourgreatestlimitingfactor,though,
throughleverage,youcansubstantiallyreducetimes
constraints).
Inordertogetwhatyouwant,thefirststepistoreally
knowwhatyouwant,withoutconfusinggoalswith
desires,andwithoutlimitingyourselfbecauseofsome
imaginedimpedimentsthatyouhaventthoroughly
analyzed.
Achievingyourgoalsisntjustaboutmovingforward.
Ibelievethatitisnothingmorethangettingwhatyou
wantandthatitisuptoyoutodecidewhatthatisfor
you.Idontcarewhetheritsbeingamasterofthe
universe,acouchpotato,oranythingelseIreallydont.
Whatisessentialisthatyouareclearaboutwhatyou
wantandthatyoufigureouthowtogetit.
Also,formostpeoplehappinessismuchmore
determinedbyhowthingsturnoutrelativetotheir
expectationsratherthantheabsoluteleveloftheir
conditions.Forexample,ifabillionaireloses$200million
hewillprobablybeunhappy,whileifsomeonewhois
worth$10thousandunexpectedlygetsanother$2
thousand,hewillprobablybehappy.Thisbasicprinciple
suggeststhatyoucanfollowoneoftwopathsto
happiness:1)havehighexpectationsandstriveto
exceedthem,or2)loweryourexpectationssothatthey
areatorbelowyourconditions.Mostofuschoosethe
firstpath,whichmeansthattobehappywehavetokeep
evolving.
Anotherprincipletokeepinmindisthatpeopleneed
meaningfulworkandmeaningfulrelationshipsinorderto
befulfilled.Ihaveobservedthistobetrueforvirtually
everyone,andIknowthatitstrueforme.
Step#2:ComeUpWithIndependentOpinions
OnHowToAchieveThem
CoretoDaliosphilosophyis
becominganindependentthinker
ratherthanfocusingonwhatyou
aretaughtbyothers:
Youhavetobeanindependentthinkerbecauseyoucantmakemoneyagreeingwith
theconsensusview,whichisalreadyembeddedintheprice.Yetwheneveryoure
bettingagainsttheconsensustheresasignificantprobabilityyouregoingtobewrong,
soyouhavetobehumble.
Inotherwords,accordingtoDalio,thekeytobeingasuccessfulinvestorisfindingwhenthe
consensusiswrongandhavinganindependentopinionthatisright.
Inordertocomeupwithindependentopinionsthatareright,Daliogoesreallydeepandwide.
Whenmostpeopleanalyzesituations,theyusetheexperiencesoftheirlifeasthemaindata
source.
Earlyinhiscareer
,Daliowidenedhislenstohumanhistorymakingiteasytonotice
cyclesofdifferentlengthsthatkeeponrepeatingthemselves.Previously,hehehadbeen
surprisedwhenonceinalifetimeeventshappened.Nowhesawthesameeventsaspartsof
cyclesthatkeeprepeatingthroughouthistory.
TheEconomistgoesdeeper
intohisprocess,[he]hasconductedindepthanalysisofpast
periodsofeconomicupheaval,suchastheDepressioninAmerica,postwarBritainandthe
hyperinflationoftheWeimarRepublic.Hehasevensimulatedbeinganinvestorinmarketsin
thoseperiodsbyreadingdailypapersfromtheseeras,receivingdataandtradingasifinreal
time.
A
2011NewYorkerprofile
peelsbackthecurtainevenmoreandexplainshowtheirweekly
50personWhatsgoingonintheworld?meetingworksandhelpsDaliopullfromlotsof
differentperspectivesandgettothetruth:
AcolleaguebegandescribinghowtheEuropeanCentralBankhadjustboughtsome
Greekbondsfrominvestorsatadiscounttotheirfacevalueamovethatthespeaker
describedasapossibleprecursortoanoverallrestructuringofGreecesvastdebts.
Daliointerruptedhim.Hesaid,Hereswhereyouarebeingimprecise,andthen
explainedatlengthwhataproperdebtrestructuringwouldentail,dismissingtheE.C.B.s
moveasanexerciseinkickingitdowntheroad.
[...]
ThediscussionintheconferenceroommovedontoSpain,theUnitedKingdom,and
China,where,duringthepreviousweek,thecentralbankhadraisedinterestratesinan
attempttoslowinflation.DaliosaidthattheChineseeconomywasindangerof
overheating,andsomebodyaskedhowaChineseslowdownwouldaffectthepriceofoil
andothercommodities.GregJensen,Bridgewaterscochiefexecutiveandcochief
investmentofficer,whoisthirtysix,saidhethoughtthatevenastutteringChinawould
stillgrowfastenoughtopushworldcommoditypricesupward.
[...]
Manyhedgefundmanagersstaypinnedtotheircomputerscreensdayandnight
monitoringmovementsinthemarkets.Dalioisdifferent.Hespendsmostofhistime
tryingtofigureouthoweconomicandfinancialeventsfittogetherinacoherent
framework.Almosteverythingislikeamachine,hetoldmeonedaywhenhewas
ramblingon,asheoftendoes.Natureisamachine.Thefamilyisamachine.Thelife
cycleislikeamachine.Hisconstantgoal,hesaid,wastounderstandhowthe
economicmachineworks.AndtheneverythingelseIbasicallyviewasjustacaseat
hand.Sohowdoesthemachineworkthatyouhaveafinancialcrisis?Howdoes
deleveragingworkwhatisthenatureofthatmachine?Andwhatishumannature,and
howdoyouraiseacommunityofpeopletorunabusiness?
Initsessence,Daliosphilosophyisthat,Thereareaninfinitenumberoflawsoftheuniverse
andthatallprogressordreamsachievedcomefromoperatinginawaythatsconsistentwith
them.Theselawsandtheprinciplesofhowtooperateinharmonywiththemhavealways
existed.
Step#3:StressTestThoseOpinions
FromDaliosperspective,...oneofthegreatestsourcesofproblemsinoursocietyarisesfrom
peoplehavingloadsofwrongtheoriesintheirheads.Lateron,headds,Thebiggestmistake
mostpeoplemakeistonotseethemselvesandothersobjectively.Iftheycouldjustgetaround
this,theycouldliveuptotheirpotentials.
Tomakesureheisntoneofthosepeople,hetakesthefollowingprecautions.
Instillsacultureofradicaltransparencyathiscompany.
AllmeetingsatBridgewater
aretaperecorded
.Thegoalofthisistohavepeoplesaytheiropinionsdirectlytopeople
ratherthanhidethemortalkbehindsomeoneelsesback.Thisculturemakessurethat
peopleareconstantlyreceivingfeedbackfromothersthattheydnormallyneverreceive
inotherenvironmentsandthenlearninghowtobypasstheirowndefensemechanisms
andreallyunderstandthefeedback.
Shareshistheorieswithothers.
Istresstestedmyopinionsbyhavingthesmartest
peopleIcouldfindchallengethemsoIcouldfindoutwhereIwaswrongaboutwhich
companieswereexciting.WhenDaliotestedhisopinions,hewasntinterestedintheir
reaction.Hewasmoreinterestedinlisteningcalmlytothelogicpeopleusedtocomeup
withtheiropinion.Then,heexplainswhyandhowhedidntcometothesameconclusion.
Hecallsitbeing
openmindedandassertiveatthesametime
.
Beskepticalofhisownideas.
Oneofhistorysgreatestinvestors,PaulTudorJones,
famouslysaid,EverydayIassumeeverypositionIhaveiswrong."Daliofollowsa
similarphilosophy,andithelpshimavoidconfirmationbias,thebiastorationalizeour
ownopinionsinsteadofchallengingthem.Thisbiasisoneofthemostpervasive
cognitivebiases
asnotedbyCharlieMunger,WarrenBuffettsbusinesspartner
.
Iremainedwaryaboutbeingoverconfident,andIfiguredouthowtoeffectivelydealwithmynot
knowing.IdealtwithmynotknowingbyeithercontinuingtogatherinformationuntilIreached
thepointthatIcouldbeconfidentorbyeliminatingmyexposuretotherisksofnotknowing.I
nevercaredmuchaboutothersconclusionsonlyforthereasoningthatledtothese
conclusions.Thatreasoninghadtomakesensetome.Throughthisprocess,Iimprovedmy
chancesofbeingright,andIlearnedalotfromalotofgreatpeople.
Step#4:ReflectOnYourPsychologicalPains
AndHowToOvercomeThem
Daliostressesthathavingindependentopinionsisnotenoughonemustalsoreflecttolearn
fromthecurrentsituationandimprovenexttimearound.Inhisownwords:Iwrestledwithmy
realities,reflectedontheconsequencesofmydecisions,andlearnedandimprovedfromthis
process.
Moreimportantly,Dalioacknowledgestheimportanceofacknowledgingandovercomingthe
emotionalpainoftenassociatedwiththereflectionprocess.
Itisafundamentallawofnaturethattoevolveonehastopushoneslimits,whichispainful,in
ordertogainstrengthwhetheritsintheformofliftingweights,facingproblemsheadon,orin
anyotherway.
ThisideaissoimportanttoDaliothathediscusses5criticaldecisionsthatwereconstantly
facedwiththroughoutlife,andthedecisionofhowwereacttopainisoneofthem.
Headds:
Mostpeoplereacttopainbadly.Theyhavefightorflightreactionstoit:theyeither
strikeoutatwhateverbroughtthemthepainortheytrytorunawayfromit.Asaresult,
theydontlearntofindwaysaroundtheirbarriers,sotheyencounterthemoverandover
againandmakelittleornoprogresstowardwhattheywant.
Thosewhoreactwelltopainthatstandsinthewayofgettingtotheirgoalsthosewho
understandwhatiscausingitandhowtodealwithitsothatitcanbedisposedofasa
barriergainstrengthandsatisfaction.Thisisbecausemostlearningcomesfrom
makingmistakes,reflectingonthecausesofthemistakes,andlearningwhattodo
differentlyinthefuture.Believeitornot,youareluckytofeelthepainifyouapproachit
correctly,becauseitwillsignalthatyouneedtofindsolutionsandtoprogress.Sincethe
onlywayyouaregoingtofindsolutionstopainfulproblemsisbythinkingdeeplyabout
themi.e.,reflecting30ifyoucandevelopakneejerkreactiontopainthatistoreflect
ratherthantofightorflee,itwillleadtoyourrapidlearning/evolving.
Hethenasksthereader:Howbigofanimpedimentispsychologicalpaintoyourprogress?
Tobettermanagenegativeemotionsincomingupwithindependentopinionsthatoftendontfit
wellwiththemainstreamviewpoint,Daliopracticesmeditation,especiallywhenhesstressed.
Daliohimselfsaid
:Meditation,morethananyotherfactor,hasbeenthereasonforwhat
successI'vehad."
RayReflectionTruisms
Youwillbemuchmoreeffectiveifyoufocusondiagnosis
anddesignratherthanjumpingtosolutions.
Rootcauses,likeprinciples,arethingsthatmanifest
themselvesoverandoveragainasthedeepseated
reasonsbehindtheactionsthatcauseproblems.Soyou
willgetmanyeverlastingdividendsifyoucanfindthem
andproperlydealwiththem.
Thereisnothingtofearfromtruth.
Ilearnedthatfindingoutwhatistrue,regardlessofwhat
thatis,includingallthestuffmostpeoplethinkis
badlikemistakesandpersonalweaknessesisgood
becauseIcanthendealwiththesethingssothatthey
dontstandinmyway.
Pain+Reflection=Progress
Themostimportantqualitiesforsuccessfullydiagnosing
problemsarelogic,theabilitytoseemultiple
possibilities,andthewillingnesstotouchpeoples
nervestoovercometheegobarriersthatstandintheway
oftruth.
Toleratingproblemshasthesameresultasnot
identifyingthem(i.e.,bothstandinthewayofgetting
pasttheproblem),
Step#5:TurnYourProven,Independent
OpinionsIntoAMachine
Daliousesthemetaphorofamachinetorepresentsystemsyoucancreateinyourlifethat
produceconsistent,predictableresults.
Inhiswords,Thosewhoaremostsuccessfularecapableofhigherlevelthinkingi.e.,they
areabletostepbackanddesignamachineconsistingoftherightpeopledoingtheright
thingstogetwhattheywant.Theyareabletoassessandimprovehowtheirmachineworks
bycomparingtheoutcomesthatthemachineisproducingwiththegoals.Schematically,the
processisasshowninthediagrambelow.Itisafeedbackloop:
A
2011NewYorkerprofile
onDaliogivessomeinsightonhowheturnshislessonslearnedinto
amachine
Toguideitsinvestments,Bridgewaterhasputtogetherhundredsofdecisionrules.
ThesearethefinancialanalogueofDaliosPrinciples.Heusedtowritethemdownand
keeptheminaringbinder.Today,theyareencodedinBridgewaterscomputers.Some
oftheseindicatorsareverygeneral.Oneofthemsaysthatifinflationadjustedinterest
ratesdeclineinagivencountry,itscurrencyislikelytodecline.Othersaremorespecific.
Onesaysthat,overthelongrun,thepriceofgoldapproximatesthetotalamountof
moneyincirculationdividedbythesizeofthegoldstock.Ifthemarketpriceofgold
movesalongwayfromthislevel,itmayindicateabuyingorsellingopportunity.
Inanygivenmarket,Bridgewatermayhaveadozenormoredifferentindicators.
However,evenwhenmostoralloftheindicatorsarepointinginacertaindirection,Dalio
doesntrelysolelyonsoftware.UnlessheandJensenandPrinceagreethatacertain
trademakessense,thefirmdoesntmakeit.Whilethisinevitablyintroducesanelement
ofhumanjudgmenttotheinvestmentprocess,Dalioinsistsitisstilldrivenbythe
rulesbasedframeworkhehasbuiltupoverthirtyyears.WhenImthinking,Whatis
goingontoday?,IalsoneedtomaketheconnectiontoHowdoeswhatishappening
todayfitintoourframeworkformakingthisdecision?hesaid.Ultimately,hesays,itis
thecommitmenttosystematicanalysisandsystematicinvestmentthatdistinguishes
Bridgewaterfromotherhedgefunds.Ihearalotofpeopledescribingwhatshappening
todaywithouttheproperhistoricalcontextandwithouttheframeworkofhowthe
machineworks,hesays.
Whendesigningthemachine,Daliorecommendsdividingyourselfintotwopeople:
Observerwhocreatesthemachineandmonitorsitsperformance.
Participantwhomakesthemachinework.
Heemphasizestheimportanceofbeingobjectiveaboutyourselfasaparticipantandputting
yourselfinapositiontowinbasedonyouruniquestrengths,Letsimaginethatyourgoalisto
haveawinningbasketballteam.Wouldntitbesillytoputyourselfinapositionthatyoudont
playwell?Ifyoudid,youwouldntgetwhatyouwant.
Resource
HowTheEconomicMachineWorks[Video]
(2M+views)
Thissimplebutnotsimplisticandeasytofollow30minute,animatedvideoanswersthe
question,"Howdoestheeconomyreallywork?"BasedonDalio'spracticaltemplatefor
understandingtheeconomy,whichhedevelopedoverthecourseofhiscareer,thevideo
breaksdowneconomicconceptslikecredit,deficitsandinterestrates,allowingviewersto
learnthebasicdrivingforcesbehindtheeconomy,howeconomicpoliciesworkandwhy
economiccyclesoccur.
Forasummaryofthevideo,read
BillionairehedgefundmanagerRayDalioexplainshow
capitalismworks
.
RayMachineTruisms
Creatingadesignislikewritingamoviescriptinthatyou
visualizewhowilldowhatthroughtimeinorderto
achievethegoal.
Yourmostimportantroleistostepbackanddesign,
operateandimproveyourmachinetogetwhatyou
want.
Step#6:TurnTheMachineOn
RayTakeActionTruisms
Ibelievetheimportanceofgoodworkhabitsisvastly
underrated.
Itiscriticaltoknoweachdaywhatyouneedtodoand
havethedisciplinetodoit
Peoplewhoaregoodatthisstagecanreliablyexecutea
plan.Theytendtobeselfdisciplinedandproactiverather
thanreactivetotheblizzardofdailytasksthatcandivert
themfromexecution.Theyareresultsoriented:theylove
topushthemselvesoverthefinishlinetoachievethe
goal.