Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 673 Pontiac residents, 661 Ottawa Centre residents, 685 Ottawa

West-Nepean residents, 630 Kanata-Carleton residents and 655 Nepean residents by Smart IVR on
October 4, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones. Pontiac margin of error: +/3.74%, Ottawa Centre margin of error: +/- 3.79%, Ottawa West-Nepean margin of error: +/- 3.72%,
Kanata-Carleton margin of error: +/- 3.89% and Nepean margin of error: +/- 3.81%, 19 times out of
20. Results were weighed by age & gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION

October 8, 2015 (Toronto, ON) - With less than two weeks to go, a new set of five
Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls in the National Capital Region finds three races too close to call.
The Liberals are locked in a tight battle with the Conservatives for Nepean and Kanata-Carleton,
and the NDP for Pontiac. Things are less tight in Ottawa WestNepean and Ottawa Centre, with
the Liberals holding a commanding lead in the former and the NDP comfortably ahead in the
latter.
PONTIAC
In Pontiac, the race between the Liberals and NDP is too close to call, continued Maggi. NDP
incumbent Mathieu Ravignat (28%) is only a single point above Liberal candidate Will Amos
(27%). With Conservative candidate Benjamin Woodman polling at only 17%, its clear that voters
in Pontiac want change, but havent made a clear decision as whether the NDP or Liberals
represents the best shift in direction. Add the fact that it was Conservative up until 2011, and
Pontiac is definitely a riding worth watching.
OTTAWA CENTRE
Paul Dewar looks safe in Ottawa Centre, despite an energetic campaign from the Liberals
remarked Maggi. The incumbent MP leads Liberal challenger Catherine McKenna 42% to 30%
among decided and leaning voters, while Conservative candidate Damian Konstantinakos brings
up the rear with 22%. With Dewar looking comfortable, the one wild card in this race is that only
half of each partys supporters describe their support as strong. If the NDP continues to decline,
this seat could be in play. But for now, Dewars popularity is holding.
OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN
With a nearly 20-point lead, Liberal candidate Anita Vandenbeld looks set to take Ottawa
West-Nepean, predicted Maggi. Vandenbeld tops Conservative candidate Abdul Abdi 47% to
29% among decided and leaning voters in the riding formerly held by prominent Conservative
cabinet minister John Baird. NDP candidate Marlene Rivier stands at 20%. Vandenbeld should be
feeling confident as we approach election day, especially given her commanding lead (54%)
among voters ages 50 to 64.
KANATA-CARLETON
Things are going down to the wire in Kanata-Carleton, with a mere two points separating the
Conservatives and Liberals, stated Maggi. In this new riding, much of which was formerly
represented by Chief Government Whip Gordon OConnor, Conservative candidate Walter Pamic
tops Liberal Karen McCrimmon 45% to 43% among decided and leaning voters. At 8%, NDP
candidate John Hansen is not a factor. With large numbers of both Liberal and Conservative
supports saying theyre certain to vote, Kanata-Carleton is an exciting race to watch.

A3
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

NEPEAN
Much like their neighbours in Kanata, voters in Nepean are nearly evenly split between the two
leading parties, noted Maggi. Liberal candidate Chandra Arya (42%) is only a point ahead of
Conservative Andy Wang (41%), well within the margin of error. NDP candidate Sean Devine lags
at 13%. As in Kanata-Carleton, large numbers of Liberal and Conservative supporters say theyre
certain to vote, making Nepean another contest to follow on election night.
ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels
of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public
affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majority
government in British Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recently,
Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, 613-698-5524, david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A4

PONTIAC

All Voters
Woodman

Ravignat

BENJAMIN WOODMAN (CPC)

MATHIEU RAVIGNAT (NDP)
WILL AMOS (LPC)
NICOLAS LEPAGE (BQ)
COLIN GRIFFITHS (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
BENJAMIN WOODMAN (CPC)
MATHIEU RAVIGNAT (NDP)
WILL AMOS (LPC)
NICOLAS LEPAGE (BQ)
COLIN GRIFFITHS (GPC)
SAMPLE

8%

3%

34%

36%

19%

17%

7%

2%

28%

29%

17%

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

Decided & Leaning

Amos

Griffiths

Lepage

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64

21% 10%
17%
27% 33% 30%
23% 33%
39%
6%
9%
6%
1%
2%
2%
22% 13%
16%
140
172
213
Certain
Likely
17%
17%
29%
30%
28%
36%
6%
0%
2%
0%
18%
18%

65+ Male Female

11%
19% 23%
26% 25% 32%
30% 27% 30%
6%
6% 8%
2%
4% 2%
15%
19%
30%
148 304 369
Might Unlikely
17%
18%
20%
22%
30%
42%
33%
18%
0%
0%
0%
0%

A5

PONTIAC

And, is there anyone you would lean towards?

5%

23%

53%

13%

3%

Woodman

Ravignat

Amos

Griffiths

3%

Lepage

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC

51% 48% 52% 61% 32%
39% 36% 33% 30% 34%
10% 15% 14% 10% 35%

A6

OTTAWA CENTRE

All Voters
Konstantinakos

DAMIAN KONSTANTINAKOS (CPC)

PAUL DEWAR (NDP)
CATHERINE MCKENNA (LPC)
TOM MILROY (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
DAMIAN KONSTANTINAKOS (CPC)
PAUL DEWAR (NDP)
CATHERINE MCKENNA (LPC)
TOM MILROY (GPC)
SAMPLE

6%

30%

42%

22%

12%

5%

27%

38%

18%

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

Decided & Leaning

Dewar

McKenna

Milroy

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

20% 13%
15% 27% 17%
19%
41% 43%
33% 32% 39% 37%
20% 28%
33% 27% 27% 27%
8%
3%
5%
3% 7%
3%
10% 13%
14%
11% 10% 14%
117
127
178
239 296 365
Certain
18%
38%
27%
5%
12%

Likely
16%
18%
34%
3%
28%

Might
14%
46%
27%
0%
12%

Unlikely
49%
34%
3%
0%
14%

A7

OTTAWA CENTRE

And, is there anyone you would lean towards?

17%

51%

17%

12%
3%

Konstantinakos

Dewar

McKenna

Milroy

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
49%
38%
13%

NDP
50%
35%
15%

LPC
51%
36%
13%

GPC
50%
28%
22%

A8

OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN

All Voters
Abdi

ABDUL ABDI (CPC)

MARLENE RIVIER (NDP)
ANITA VANDENBELD (LPC)
MARK BROOKS (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
ABDUL ABDI (CPC)
MARLENE RIVIER (NDP)
ANITA VANDENBELD (LPC)
MARK BROOKS (GPC)
SAMPLE

Rivier

4%

47%

20%

29%

13%

4%

41%

17%

26%

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

Decided & Leaning

Vandenbeld

Brooks

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64

25% 18%
22%
22% 24%
10%
33% 40% 54%
6%
3%
4%
13%
15%
9%
108
164
159
Certain
Likely
25%
43%
17%
23%
43%
12%
3%
8%
11%
15%

65+ Male Female

44% 27% 24%
9% 18%
17%
33% 43% 39%
1% 6%
1%
13% 5%
20%
254 314
371
Might
Unlikely
6%
12%
16%
0%
11%
0%
16%
0%
52%
88%

A9

OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN

And, is there anyone you would lean towards?

10%

9%

57%

21%

3%

Abdi

Rivier

Vandenbeld

Undecided

Brooks

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
87%
10%
3%

NDP
69%
30%
1%

LPC
62%
32%
6%

GPC
65%
25%
10%

A10

KANATA-CARLETON

All Voters
Pamic

WALTER PAMIC (CPC)

JOHN HANSEN (NDP)
KAREN MCCRIMMON (LPC)
ANDREW WEST (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
WALTER PAMIC (CPC)
JOHN HANSEN (NDP)
KAREN MCCRIMMON (LPC)
ANDREW WEST (GPC)
UNDECIDED

Hansen

4%

43%

8%

45%

14%

3%

38%

7%

39%

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

Decided & Leaning

McCrimmon

West

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64

32% 37%
39%
3%
10%
7%
50% 34%
35%
2%
4%
2%
13%
15%
16%
108
129
179
Certain
Likely
38%
54%
7%
6%
40%
6%
3%
2%
12%
32%

65+ Male Female

53% 38% 40%
6% 7%
7%
27% 41% 34%
3% 3%
3%
12% 12%
17%
214 229
401
Might
Unlikely
42%
16%
6%
20%
0%
36%
0%
0%
52%
27%

A11

KANATA-CARLETON

And, is there anyone you would lean towards?

15%

6%

12%
59%

8%

Pamic

Hansen

McCrimmon

Undecided

West

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
79%
17%
3%

NDP
57%
33%
10%

LPC
61%
29%
10%

GPC
36%
46%
18%

A12

NEPEAN

All Voters
Wang

ANDY WANG (CPC)

SEAN DEVINE (NDP)
CHANDRA ARYA (LPC)
JEAN-LUC COOKE (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
ANDY WANG (CPC)
SEAN DEVINE (NDP)
CHANDRA ARYA (LPC)
JEAN-LUC COOKE (GPC)
UNDECIDED

Devine

4%

42%

13%

41%

18%

2%

36%

10%

35%

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

Decided & Leaning

Arya

Cooke

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64

24% 31%
39%
8%
13%
9%
48% 33%
33%
0%
2%
3%
19% 22%
17%
74
230
179
Certain
Likely
36%
34%
10%
4%
36%
36%
2%
0%
13%
26%

65+ Male Female

51% 32% 37%
6% 7%
12%
29% 41% 32%
2% 2%
2%
12% 18%
18%
172 302 353
Might
Unlikely
26%
15%
4%
4%
41%
28%
0%
7%
29%
46%

A13

NEPEAN

And, is there anyone you would lean towards?

15%

14%
49%

13%

9%

Wang

Devine

Arya

Cooke

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
71%
22%
6%

NDP
67%
23%
10%

LPC
61%
29%
9%

GPC
71%
29%
0%

A14

PONTIAC SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
Not eligible or not likely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Benjamin Woodman of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Mathieu Ravignat of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Will Amos of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Nicolas Lepage of the Bloc Quebecois led by Gilles Duceppe
Colin Griffiths of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change
your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Benjamin Woodman of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Mathieu Ravignat of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Will Amos of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Nicolas Lepage of the Bloc Quebecois led by Gilles Duceppe
Colin Griffiths of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided

A15

OTTAWA CENTRE SCRIPT

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
Not eligible or not likely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Damian Konstantinakos of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Paul Dewar of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Catherine McKenna of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Tom Milroy of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change
your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Damian Konstantinakos of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Paul Dewar of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Catherine McKenna of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Tom Milroy of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided

A16

OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN SCRIPT

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
Not eligible or not likely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Abdul Abdi of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Marlene Rivier of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Anita Vandenbeld of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Mark Brooks of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change
your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Abdul Abdi of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Marlene Rivier of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Anita Vandenbeld of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Mark Brooks of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided

A17

KANATA-CARLETON SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
Not eligible or not likely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Walter Pamic of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
John Hansen of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Karen McCrimmon of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Andrew West of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change
your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Walter Pamic of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
John Hansen of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Karen McCrimmon of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Andrew West of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided

A18

NEPEAN SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
Not eligible or not likely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Andy Wang of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Sean Devine of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Chandra Arya of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Jean-Luc Cooke of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change
your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Andy Wang of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Sean Devine of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Chandra Arya of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Jean-Luc Cooke of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.

2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved