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Homework #6

Homework 6 Solutions

1 Of 360 male and 240 female employees at the Flagstaff Mall, 260 of

the men and 150 of the women are on flex-time (flexible working hours).

Given that an employee selected at random from this group is on flextime, what is the probability that the employee is a woman?

We want to find P(Female|Flex-time).

P(Female|Flex-time) =

P(Female Flex-time)

P(Flex-time)

There are a total of 360 + 240 = 600 employees, and a total of 260 + 150 =

410 flex-time employees. So:

P(Female Flex-time) =

P(Flex-time) =

P(Female|Flex-time) =

150

# Females on Flex-time

=

.

# Employees

600

# Flex-time Employees

410

=

.

# Employees

600

P(Female Flex-time)

=

P(Flex-time)

150

600

410

600

150

.

410

2 A new medical test has been designed to detect the presence of the

mysterious Brainlesserian disease. Among those who have the disease,

the probability that the disease will be detected by the new test is 0.74.

However, the probability that the test will erroneously indicate the presence of the disease in those who do not actually have it is 0.04. It is estimated that 16% of the population who take this test have the disease. If

the test administered to an individual is positive, what is the probability

that the person actually has the disease?

1

Lets start by writing down the information we know from reading the

problem:

P(Positive|Has Disease) = .74

P(Positive|No Disease) = .04

P(Has Disease) = .16

P(No Disease) = 1 P(Has Disease) = 1 .16 = .84

What we want to find is P(Has Disease|Positive), and we can find it using

Bayes Theorem:

P(Has Disease|Positive) =

P(Positive)

We already have the probabilities in the numerator, but we need to calculate the probability that a test is positive. We can do this by combining the

knowledge we have already:

P(Positive) = P(Positive Has Disease) + P(Positive No Disease)

P(Positive) = P(Positive|Has Disease) P(Has Disease)

P(Positive) = (.74)(.16) + (.04)(.84) = 0.152

Now lets plug this in to our equation:

P(Has Disease|Positive) =

P(Positive)

P(Has Disease|Positive) =

(.74)(.16)

= 0.77895

.152

3 Two marbles are drawn randomly one after the other without replacement from a jar that contains 8 red marbles, 6 white marbles, and 2 yellow

marbles. Find the probability of the following events:

(a) A red marble is drawn first followed by a white marble.

(b) A white marble is drawn first followed by a white marble.

(c) A yellow marble is not drawn at all.

2

8

. The second draw

draw, the probability of drawing a red marble is 16

is done without replacement, so there are only 15 marbles left. Thus,

6

. So:

the probability of drawing white on the second draw is 15

8

6

1

P(Drawing red, then white) =

= .

16

15

5

(b) This is solved just like part (a):

P(Drawing white, then white) =

6

16

5

15

1

= .

8

(c) For this part, we need to find the probability that we do not draw a

yellow in each draw. The probability of not drawing a yellow in the

first draw is 1 - the probability of drawing a yellow in the first draw.

2

= 14

This is 1 16

16 . We can do the same thing for the second draw:

2

13

1 15 = 15 . So:

14

13

91

P(No yellow in either draw) =

=

.

16

15

120

drawn. If M1 is Red then 2 more Blue marbles are placed in the urn (but

M1 is not put back into the urn). If M1 is Blue, then it is placed back

into the urn along with 3 other Red marbles. Now, another marble M2 is

randomly drawn from the urn.

(a) What is the probability that M2 is Blue?

(b) What is the probability that M2 is Red given that M1 is Blue?

(c) What is the probability that M1 is Blue given that M2 is Red?

M1

M1 :Red

M1 Blue

3

7

M2 : Red

1

4

4

7

M2 : Blue

M2 : Red

3

4

3

5

M2 : Blue

2

5

(a)

3 3 4 2

+

7 4 7 5

8

9

+

=

28 35

11

=

20

P( M2 is Blue) =

(b)

P( M2 is Red | M1 is Blue) =

P( M1 is Blue M2 is Red)

P( M1 is Blue)

4

7

35

4

7

3

5

(c)

P( M1 is Blue | M2 is Red) =

P( M2 is Red)

3

5

47

9

20

16

21

5 You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation.

Without water the plant will die with probability 0.8. With water it will

die with probability 0.5. You are 89% certain the neighbor will remember

to water the plant.

(a) When you are on vacation, find the probability that the plant will die.

(b) You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the

probability the neighbor forgot to water it?

(a) Lets start by writing out what we know:

P(Plant dies|No water) = 0.8

P(Plant dies|Water) = 0.5

P(Water) = 0.89

P(No water) = 1 P(Water) = 1 0.89 = 0.11

Now, we want to find the probability that the plant dies:

P(Plant dies) = P(Plant dies Water) + P(Plant dies No water)

P(Plant dies) = P(Plant dies|Water) P(Water)

P(Plant dies) = (0.5)(0.89) + (0.8)(0.11) = 0.533

(b) This question asks for the probability that the neighbor did not water the plant given that the plant died. We can get this using Bayes

Theorem:

P(No water|Plant dies) =

P(Plant dies)

(0.8)(0.11)

= 0.1651

0.533

either Fair or Rainy. If some day is Fair, then the probability that the

following day is also Fair is 0.6, and the probability that the following

day is Rainy is 0.4. On the other hand, if some day is Rainy, then the

probability that the following day is Rainy is 0.8, and the probability that

it is Fair is 0.2.

Suppose some particular Monday is Fair.

(a) What is the probability that the next Thursday is Fair?

(b) What is the probability that Tuesday was Fair, given that Thursday

was Rainy?

(a) This problem can be simplified by drawing a decision tree. The first

level will represent Monday, and following levels will represent subsequent days:

F

F

F

R

R

F R F R F

R

R F R

FFRF, FRFF, and FRRF.

P(Fair Thursday) = P(FFFF) + P(FFRF) + P(FRFF) + P(FRRF)

P(Fair Thursday) =

3

6

4

2

4

2

6

+

+

10

10

10

10

10

10

4

8

2

+

10

10

10

6

10

P(Fair Thursday) =

376

1000

(b) For this part we need to find the probability that Tuesday was fair

given that it rained on Thursday (keep in mind that Monday was fair).

We can use a decision tree to find all the ways the Thursday can be

rainy, and all the ways that Tuesday can be fair and Thursday is rainy:

F

R

F

F

F R

F R

F R F R

The bolded Rs are rainy Thursdays that follow a fair Tuesday, and the

italicized Rs are rainy Thursdays that follow a rainy Tuesday.

P(Fair Tuesday|Rainy Thursday) =

P(Rainy Thursday)

P( FFFR) + P( FFRR)

P( FFFR) + P( FFRR) + P( FRFR) + P( FRRR)

6 4

4 8

6

6

+

10

10

10

10

10

10

=

6

4

6

4

8

4

2

4

4

6

10

10

10 + 10

10

10 + 10

10

10 + 10

8

10

8

10

336

624

were fully sponsored by the food industry, and 30 studies that were conducted with no corporate ties. Of those that were fully sponsored by the

food industry, 14% of the participants found the products unfavorable,

25% were neutral, and 61% found the products favorable. Of those that

had no industry funding, 36% found the products unfavorable, 18% were

netural, and 46% found the products favorable.

(a) What is the probability that a participant selected at random found

the products favorable?

(b) If a randomly selected participant found the product favorable, what

is the probability that the study was sponsored by the food industry?

(c) If a randomly selected participant found the product unfavorable,

what is the probability that the study had no industry funding?

(a) Before tackling the problem, lets write out what we know:

P(Corporate) = 0.7

P(Not Corporate) = 0.3

P(Unfavorable|Corporate) = 0.14

P(Neutral|Corporate) = 0.25

P(Favorable|Corporate) = 0.61

P(Unfavorable|Not Corporate) = 0.36

P(Neutral|Not Corporate) = 0.18

P(Favorable|Not Corporate) = 0.46

Now we want to find the probability that a participant selected at random found the products favorable:

P(Favorable) = P(Favorable|Corporate) P(Corporate)

P(Favorable) = (.61)(.7) + (.46)(.3) = 0.565

(b) We can find the probability that a participant was in a corporate study

given that they found the product favorable by using Bayes Theorem:

P(Corporate|Favorable) =

P(Favorable|Corporate) P(Corporate)

P(Favorable)

P(Corporate|Favorable) =

(0.61)(0.7)

= 0.755752

0.565

(c) This last one can be solved similarly to parts (a) and (b). First, we need

to find the probability that a participant found the products unfavorable:

P(Unfavorable) = P(Unfavorable|Corporate) P(Corporate)

P(Unfavorable) = (0.14)(0.7) + (0.36)(0.3) = 0.206

Then, we can use Bayes Theorem to find the probability that a participant participated in a non-corporate study given that they found the

products to be unfavorable:

P(Not Corporate|Unfavorable) =

P(Unfavorable)

P(Not Corporate|Unfavorable) =

(0.36)(0.3)

= 0.524272

0.206

deck of 52.

a) What is the expected number of times that a Heart is followed by a Spade?

b)What is the answer if the 12 cards are drawn with replacement?

a) Let X denote number of times a Heart is followed by a Spade.

X=X1 + X2 + X3 ...X11 where Xi = 1 if the ith card is a Heart followed by a

Spade, and 0 otherwise. By linearity of expectation

E(X)=

11

P

E(X1 = i)

i=1

Spade. Since there is no replacement, on our first draw (for Heart) there are 52

cards and 13 of them are Hearts. Then when we draw for Spade, there are 51

cards and 13 of them are Spades.

P (Xi = 1) =

13 13

52 51

Thus,

E(Xi ) = 1P (Xi = 1) =

13 13

52 51

E(X)=

11

P

E(Xi ) = 11

i=1

13 13

52 51

b) We solve this problem similarly to how we solved part a). This time we DO

have replacement, so on our first draw (for Heart) there are 52 cards and 13 of

them are Hearts. Then when we draw for Spade, there are 52 cards and 13 of

them are Spades.

P (Xi = 1) =

13 13

52 52

Thus,

E(X) is 11

13 13

52 52

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