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Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,853 Saskatchewan residents by Smart IVR on

October 6, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/1.83%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Regina: +/-3.19%; Saskatoon: +/-2.96%;
rest of Saskatchewan: +/-3.5%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and
gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

October 9, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll find the Conservatives leading in
Saskatchewan with the NDP leading in Saskatoon and a three-way race underway in Regina. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.83, 19 times out of 20.
For a long while now Saskatchewan has only been represented by Conservative MPs, we expect that to
change on Election Night, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
Redistribution has made urban seats in Regina and Saskatoon prime targets for the NDP and Liberals and
we can see from the regional numbers that they are well positioned.
In Saskatoon, The NDP leads with 31% compared to 28% for the Conservatives with the Liberals in third at
21% - only 10% separates the three parties. In Regina, there is a three-way race taking place with the
Conservatives at 29%, the NDP at 24% and the Liberals at 23%. This is going to make for some very
interesting riding campaigns particularly in Regina where the Conservatives might be able to run up the
middle and win on vote splits.
Outside the cities, the Conservatives continue to dominate with a 17% lead over the NDP. For the NDP,
Saskatchewan is a bright spot in the challenging national landscape they now face though they will need
to hold onto this support or it could be the Liberals who end up making gains.
We asked Saskatchewanians what was most important in basing their vote and almost half, 47%, said it
was the party followed by 25% who said it was the party leader. Only 15% said it would be their local
candidate.
We also asked about strategic voting and almost a third said they will vote strategically this election. This
will be difficult to execute well however because the regional numbers are so tight. In some districts it will
make sense to vote NDP and in others it will make more sense to vote Liberal, regardless it will be difficult
to know what kind of district you are in. Making things more complicated the numbers are constantly
changing.
Provincially, Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan Party hold a commanding lead with the support of 57% of
decided voters, thats almost 60%. The Provincial NDP are performing best in Saskatoon right now (36%)
and are outperforming their federal cousins in Saskatoon by 5% (31% for Federal NDP). The Liberals and
Green Party are trailing far back provincially at 7% and 2% respectively.
With a provincial election coming up in 2016, well certainly be keeping an eye on the province, finished
Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate
pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

All Voters
Conservative

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

5%

23%

30%

43%

21%

4%

18%

24%

34%

If a Federal ElectionLEANING
were today,
which
party would you support?
AND
DECIDED

Decided Only
NDP

Liberal

Green

18-34
27%
27%
19%
4%
24%
422

Undecided

35-49
33%
25%
18%
4%
20%
737

Regina
29%
24%
23%
4%
19%
943

50-64
38%
21%
18%
4%
19%
807

65+ Male Female


40% 36%
31%
20% 24% 24%
17% 19%
17%
2%
4%
4%
21% 17%
24%
887 1267 1586

Saskatoon
28%
31%
21%
6%
13%
1126

Rest of SK
37%
20%
15%
3%
25%
784

A4

Rest of Saskatchewan

25%

3%

15%

20%

19%

4%

23%

Regina

37%

Saskatoon

24%

29%

13%

6%

21%

31%

28%

Regional
LEANING
AND DECIDED

A5

Conservative

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

NDP

17%

12%

31%

22%

17%

And who would be your second choice?

Liberal

Green

18-34
16%
28%
32%
12%
13%

35-49
21%
20%
33%
9%
17%

Regina
19%
24%
31%
11%
26%

Undecided

50-64
16%
21%
30%
14%
20%

65+
15%
21%
31%
12%
21%

Saskatoon
15%
25%
37%
12%
11%

Male Female
16%
18%
22% 23%
33% 30%
12%
12%
17%
18%
Rest of SK
18%
21%
29%
12%
20%

A6

All Voters
Saskatchewan

SASKATCHEWAN
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
SASKATCHEWAN
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

4%

7%

32%

57%

19%

3%

6%

26%

46%

And if a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

Decided Only
NDP

Liberal

Green

18-34
41%
22%
9%
4%
23%
422

Undecided

35-49
45%
30%
6%
3%
16%
737

Regina
41%
30%
6%
5%
19%
943

50-64
48%
27%
5%
3%
18%
807

65+ Male Female


54% 48% 45%
25% 24% 27%
3%
7%
5%
1%
4%
2%
17% 18%
19%
887 1267 1586

Saskatoon
42%
36%
7%
3%
12%
1126

Rest of SK
50%
21%
6%
3%
21%
784

A7

Lobby groups have been asking people to vote strategically in this election or to cast a ballot
for a party other than a sincere preference to help stop another party from winning. Do you
plan to vote strategically in this election?

22%
28%

49%
Yes

YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

No

Not Sure
18-34
39%
48%
13%
422

35-49
26%
49%
26%
737
Regina
28%
49%
23%
943

50-64
22%
51%
27%
807

65+ Male Female


25% 27%
30%
48% 51%
46%
27% 21%
24%
887 1267 1586

Saskatoon
31%
48%
20%
1126

Rest of SK
27%
50%
23%
784

A8

When casting your vote, which of the following is more important: The Party, The Party Leader,
or the Local Candidate?

12%

15%
47%

25%

Party

THE PARTY
THE PARTY LEADER
THE LOCAL CANDIDATE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
THE PARTY
THE PARTY LEADER
THE LOCAL CANDIDATE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Party Leader

Local Candidate

18-34
49%
21%
20%
10%
422

Undecided

35-49
48%
27%
9%
17%
737

Regina
46%
29%
13%
12%
943

50-64
45%
27%
17%
11%
807

65+
47%
27%
15%
11%
887

Saskatoon
47%
28%
15%
10%
1126

Male Female
47% 48%
25% 26%
15%
15%
13%
11%
1267 1586
Rest of SK
48%
23%
16%
13%
784

A9

And, which of these is the most important issue in deciding your vote in the Federal election? Is
it, the Economy, Childcare, Health Care, Agriculture, Immigration, or another issue?

15%

40%

19%

2%
2%
5%

16%
Economy

Immigration

ECONOMY
CHILDCARE
HEALTH CARE
AGRICULTURE
IMMIGRATION
SOMETHING ELSE
NOT SURE
ECONOMY
CHILDCARE
HEALTH CARE
AGRICULTURE
IMMIGRATION
SOMETHING ELSE
NOT SURE

Education

Agriculture

Childcare

18-34
31%
11%
12%
2%
0%
23%
21%

35-49
43%
4%
16%
1%
5%
18%
13%

Regina
39%
4%
15%
3%
2%
23%
15%

Something else

50-64
45%
2%
18%
1%
3%
18%
12%

Not sure

65+ Male Female


41% 47% 32%
2%
7%
4%
20% 12%
20%
7%
2%
3%
2%
2%
3%
12% 20%
18%
12% 10% 20%

Saskatoon
37%
6%
15%
2%
2%
23%
15%

Rest of SK
41%
5%
17%
2%
3%
16%
15%

A10

SCRIPT
If the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
The NDP led by Tom Mulcair
The Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
The Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And who would be your second choice?
The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
The NDP led by Tom Mulcair
The Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
The Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And if a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided
Lobby groups have been asking people to vote strategically in this election or to cast a ballot for a
party other than a sincere preference to help stop another party from winning. Do you plan to vote
strategically in this election?
Yes
No
Not sure

A11

SCRIPT
When casting your vote, which of the following is more important: The Party, The Party Leader, or the
Local Candidate?
The Party
The Party Leader
The Local Candidate
Not sure
And, which of these is the most important issue in deciding your vote in the Federal election? Is it, the
Economy, Childcare, Health Care, Agriculture, Immigration, or something else?
Economy
Childcare
Health care
Agriculture
Immigration
Something Else
Not sure

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.