Strategic

Computing and Communications Outline

Technology
• What is convergence?
CS 294, EE 290X, IS 290, BA 296
Spring 98 • What convergence's are occurring?
• Impact on the industries affected
Feb 18: V.3
Impact of convergence
by
David G. Messerschmitt

What is convergence? Examples of convergence

• It is not diversification
• It is when two industries’ products formerly
were not, but have become (from the
customer’s perspective), either
complementary (dependent) or competitive
(overlapping)
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• Complementary:
– Computing and telecommunications
– Entertainment and storage
– Publication and networking
• Competitive:
– Consumer electronics and
telecommunications/computing
– Telephony and cable television
– Internet and telephony
– Information appliance and PC

Telecommunications-computing
Question convergence
• Can you think of other examples of • Infrastructure complementary:
convergence: – Data, audio, video in ATM network
– Complementary? – Data, audio, video in desktop computer
– Competitive? • Applications competitive:
– Home banking by DTMF and voice response
– Home banking by desktop computer and
modem or Internet

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 Goal
• Let’s understand the
computer/telecommunications convergence
better
• Convergence is a result of the networking of
computers, so let’s presume that
Types of social applications
• Connectivity:
– Direct: from one user to other users who are known
– Publication: one user publishes information without
knowing who will access it
• Temporal:
– Immediate: users have to participate simultaneously
– Deferred: users participate at different times

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Publication-deferred example Direct-immediate examples

Shared whiteboard

World-wide
web

Shared editor
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Other direct Examples

Immediate Deferred
Video conferencing
Direct
e-mail
telephony
voice-mail
video conferencing
facsimile
Telephony

(immediate) Publication
broadcast world-wide web
information push video-on-demand

Facsimile
(deferred) 11 12
 What telecom has emphasized Is there a pattern?
Immediate Deferred
• Telecommunications has emphasized
Direct email
telephony
“streaming” media
voice mail
video conferencing
facsimile • Computing has emphasized “bursty” or
“sporadic media
• The historical distinctions are technology
Publication
broadcast
world-wide web based, not application based
video on demand
information push

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Types of user groups supported

Interacting users
by social applications
Immediate Deferred

Direct Correspondence:
• Interacting users Meetings: e-mail
telephony voice-mail
• Collaborating users video conferencing facsimile

• Community
• Citizenry
Publication

15 16

Collaborating users Community

Immediate Deferred Immediate Deferred

Direct Direct
embedded embedded
interactions interactions

Town meeting: Town meeting:

Publication GroupWare: Publication chatroom listserv
calendar/scheduling Special-interest Special-interest
joint authoring publication: publication:
information push world-wide web

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 Direct-
immediate
Citizenry
Immediate Deferred Direct-deferred
Publication
Direct

Peer-to-peer

Publication Telecom
Mass publication:
broadcast
world-wide web Computing
Client/server Server

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Impact of convergence on Impact of convergence on

telecommunications telecommunications
• From stovepipe to stratification: • Internet: major new opportunity or major
– Unbundling: competitor?
• Terminal equipment (carterphone)
• Poles/conduits
– Becomes competitive with telephone network
• Loops – Particularly an issue with international calls
• Next?
– Parts of existing investment stranded:
– Intelligence moves to PC/terminal
• Circuit switches and multiplexes
– Service provider loses control of applications
• Not physical plant
– Physical/network layer becomes commodity when
hidden by IP spanning layer (ATM, Ethernet, etc.)

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Impact of convergence on
Question
telecommunications
• Can you draw parallels between: • Broadband Internet access:
– Impact of Internet of telecommunications – Competition between telephone and CATV
industry • Wireless Internet access:
– Impact of PC on computer industry – Competition among stovepipe networks (I.e.
Metricom), satellite, and digital cellular

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Question
• Nomadic users: access network from
different locations
– public telephone is the nomadic telephony
access
• How do you think nomadic Internet access
infrastructure will arise?
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Question
• Can you name some standards bodies newly
formed because of the networking of
computing?
• Similarly, can you name some new
partnerships and consortia?
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Summary
• Computer industry looks much more like
telecommunications (standardization)
• Telecommunications looks much more like
computing (competition, stratification)
• Will convergence companies emerge?
– Old model around equipment: AT&T/NCR and
IBM/Rolm
– New model around operations: IBM as network
provider
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Impact of convergence on
computing
• Emphasis on portability and interoperability
across networks:
– Standardization
– Middleware (CORBA, Java, etc.)
– Consortia, collaboration, etc.
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New applications of networked
computing
• Social applications:
– Economics quite different (network effects)
– Attention of policy makers (privacy, content filtering,
encryption, universal service, etc.)
– Pressure for regulation
• Enterprise and cross-enterprise applications
– Business process engineering
– EDI, e-money management, e-commerce, etc
– Vulnerability, security become vital issues
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Question
• In the new world of converged
computing/telecommunications, what
corporate mergers might make sense?
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