Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
10/12/2015
NEW-CHARTS Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weights on Consumption ................................................................. 192
NEW-CHARTS The Real Value of Cash .................................................................................................................................................. 192
NEW-CHARTS Consumer Sentiment versus S&P 500 ........................................................................................................................... 193
NEW-CHARTS Hedgers Net Long Record of S&P 500 Futures .............................................................................................................. 193
NEW-CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet Changes versus S&P 500 ............................................................................................................... 194
NEW-CHARTS S&P Futures versus Relative Volumes ........................................................................................................................... 194
NEW-CHARTS Japanese Buying Foreign Stocks ................................................................................................................................... 195
NEW-CHARTS Monetary Initiatives versus S&P 500 .............................................................................................................................. 196
NEW-CHARTS Bull Trend Line Support .................................................................................................................................................. 196
CHARTS DOW Industrial 200 WMA Boundary Condition & Trend Direction Change Indicator.............................................................. 197
CHARTS DOW Industrial 200 WMA Boundary Condition & Trend Direction Change Trigger ................................................................ 197
CHARTS Global 150 Equity Index Bounces off Lower Support Channel ................................................................................................ 198
CHARTS Global 150 Equity Index Potential Key Support Levels ......................................................................................................... 198
CHARTS The Rout May Have Just Began According to Some ............................................................................................................... 199
CHARTS The VIX Termination Algo ......................................................................................................................................................... 199
CHARTS The VIX Termination Algo ......................................................................................................................................................... 200
CHARTS Pick-Up In Buyback Activity ...................................................................................................................................................... 201
CHARTS Buybacks Are Tied to Investment Grade Credit Spreads ........................................................................................................ 201
CHARTS Coincident / Lagging Indicator Ratio ......................................................................................................................................... 202
CHARTS Annual Change in Durable Goods Orders ................................................................................................................................ 202
CHARTS Durable Goods v Core-Durable Goods (Ex Defense) .............................................................................................................. 203
CHARTS Real Gross Domestic Investment ............................................................................................................................................. 203
CHARTS Total Real Private Fixed Investment as % of Real GDP .......................................................................................................... 204
CHARTS Businesses Operate Against Actual Demand ........................................................................................................................... 204
CHARTS ISM Composite Index ................................................................................................................................................................ 205
CHARTS Capacity Utilization versus Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................... 205
CHARTS Retail Sales (NSA) Annual % Chg of 12 Month Average ......................................................................................................... 206
CHARTS Monthly Retail Control Purchases Y-o-Y % Chg ................................................................................................................. 207
CHARTS Major Economic Trends ............................................................................................................................................................ 207
CHARTS $9T Loss In Global Market Cap ................................................................................................................................................ 208
CHARTS Median EV/EBITDA Ratio for MSCI World (ex Financials) ...................................................................................................... 208
CHARTS 15 Developed Country Aggregate Bond PLUS Stock Valuations ............................................................................................ 209
CHARTS 15 Developed Country Aggregate -83% are in their top 20% of valuations through history .................................................... 209
CHARTS Death Cross .............................................................................................................................................................................. 209
CHARTS Asian Dollar Index Flags Crisis Events ..................................................................................................................................... 211
CHARTS TSY 2s30s Spread .................................................................................................................................................................... 211
CHARTS S&P versus HY(High Yield) & IG (Investment Grade) .............................................................................................................. 212
CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet versus HYG (HY Bond ETF) ..................................................................................................................... 212
CHARTS Commodity Carnage ................................................................................................................................................................. 213
CHARTS Market Expectations of Support & Resistance ......................................................................................................................... 214
CHARTS Russell 2000 Head & Shoulders versus AD Line ..................................................................................................................... 214
CHARTS NYSE - NYA Head & Shoulders versus AD Line ..................................................................................................................... 215
CHARTS Dotcom Bubble Burst 2 Year Process and a Year After the Long Trend Broken Was Broken ............................................ 216
CHARTS 54% of All EM Stocks Are In A Bear Market Even As The MSCI EM Index Is Off Only 7% .................................................... 216
CHARTS A Spike in New Lows around the World ................................................................................................................................... 217
CHARTS A Spike in New Lows around the World MSCI Europe ......................................................................................................... 217
CHARTS A Spike in New Lows around the World North America ........................................................................................................ 217
CHARTS A Spike in New Lows around the World MSCI Pacific .......................................................................................................... 218
CHARTS A Spike in New Lows around the World MSCI Emerging Markets ....................................................................................... 218
CHARTS A Spike in New Lows around the World MSCI EM EMEA .................................................................................................... 219
CHARTS A Spike in New Lows around the World MSCI EM Latin America ........................................................................................ 219
CHARTS A Spike in New Lows around the World MSCI EM Asia........................................................................................................ 220
CHARTS Copper Prices Just Made a 6-Year Low ................................................................................................................................... 221
CHARTS Volatility is Stealthy Reemerging into the Equity Market .......................................................................................................... 221
CHARTS S&P 500 Suffers First 2% Down Day Since End of 2014......................................................................................................... 222
CHARTS More Stocks Than You Might Guess Are In A Correction - World ........................................................................................... 223
CHARTS More Stocks Than You Might Guess Are In A Correction North America ............................................................................. 223
CHARTS More Stocks Than You Might Guess Are In A Correction Europe ........................................................................................ 223
CHARTS More Stocks Than You Might Guess Are In A Correction Pacific ......................................................................................... 225
CHARTS Percentage of stocks that are fully in a bear market (down over 20%) is 15% of the MSCI World Index. .............................. 225
CHARTS Percentage of stocks that are fully in a bear market (down over 20%) is 11% of the MSCI Europe Index. ............................ 226
NEW-RECESSION Historical Regional Index Comparisons Last Seen in 2008 .................................................................................. 232
NEW-RECESSION Global Oil Consumption Leads Economic Growth Trend is Down Global Headwinds ...................................... 233
NEW-RECESSION Gross Domestic Income versus Wilshire 5000 Tells the Story ............................................................................. 234
RECESSION CT 2015 Revenue Recession ............................................................................................................................................ 234
RECESSION Q2 2015 Revenue Recession ............................................................................................................................................ 235
RECESSION 4 Consecutive months of y/y Spending Declines ............................................................................................................... 235
RECESSION BOA: Retail sales ex-autos, plunged 0.8% mom seasonally adjusted............................................................................ 236
RECESSION Top 10 US Market Areas Signal Retail Problem Underway .............................................................................................. 236
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories to Sales Spiking To Areas Seen During Recession Trends ......................................................... 237
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories Less Wholesale Sales ................................................................................................................... 238
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories vs GDP Trends .............................................................................................................................. 238
RECESSION Auto Inventories to Sales ................................................................................................................................................... 239
RECESSION Falling Collateral and Residuals Undermine Real Growth .............................................................................................. 239
RECESSION Coincident / Lagging Indicator Ratio versus Recessions ................................................................................................... 240
RECESSION Annual Change in Durable Goods Orders v Recessions ................................................................................................... 240
RECESSION Durable Goods v Core-Durable Goods (Ex Defense) versus Recessions ........................................................................ 241
RECESSION Real Gross Domestic Investment versus Recessions ....................................................................................................... 241
RECESSION Total Real Private Fixed Investment as % of Real GDP versus Recessions .................................................................... 242
RECESSION Businesses Operate Against Actual Demand versus Recessions .................................................................................... 242
RECESSION ISM Composite Index versus Recessions.......................................................................................................................... 243
RECESSION Capacity Utilization versus Industrial Production versus Recessions ............................................................................... 243
RECESSION Retail Sales (NSA) Annual % Chg of 12 Month Average versus Recessions ................................................................... 244
RECESSION Monthly Retail Control Purchases Y-o-Y % Chg versus Recessions........................................................................... 244
RECESSION Major Economic Trends...................................................................................................................................................... 245
NEW-RESEARCH OF NOTE .......................................................................................................................................................................... 246
NEW- RECESSION Economists Finally Admit, Odds Of A US Recession Are On The Rise ................................................................. 246
RECESSION Retail Sales Slump on Deck ............................................................................................................................................... 248
RECESSION This Is another "Subprime" Waiting To Blow ..................................................................................................................... 250
RECESSION Record Gap between US Inventories and Sales Screams Recession .............................................................................. 253
RECESSION August spending was the weakest in nominal dollar terms since 2012 ............................................................................. 255
RECESSION The Next Recession Will Definitely Not Happen In 2018 ................................................................................................... 260
Q3 EARNINGS Reduced Expectations .............................................................................................................................................................. 262
STUDY: Q3 EARNINGS - ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 262
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 262
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Q3 EPS Expected to Fall -4.5% According to Factset .......................................................................................... 262
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS S&P 500 Average Earnings Growth Y-o-Y Not a Good Pattern ........................................................................ 262
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Revenue Recession and Flat EPS Consensus .................................................................................................... 263
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Forward EPS Consensus Matches Manufacturing Surveys Declines ................................................................. 263
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Q3 Earnings Growth (Decline): Ex-BAC ............................................................................................................... 264
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS IT Sector Q3 Earnings Forecast to be Down -5.9% Without Apple (-0.4% With) ................................................. 264
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS A Good Sign that Goldman Must Be Selling? ....................................................................................................... 265
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS It Should Be Expected that Earnings Will Begin to fall ......................................................................................... 265
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 266
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Do You See What Happens, Alcoa, When Your "Restructuring" Non-GAAP Add-backs Tumble ....................... 266
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Q3 Earnings Bloodbath-Terrible Monsanto Results- Company Fires 2,600 - ...................................................... 268
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Wall Street is preparing for the worst earnings season since 2009 ................................................................... 270
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS The Truth About S&P 500 Earnings: No Growth For 7 Quarters, With A Revenue Recession On Top .............. 274
BUYBACKS Update ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 276
STUDY: BUYBACKS ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 276
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 276
NEW-BUYBACKS Falling Investment Grade Spreads Hurting Buybacks ............................................................................................... 276
NEW-BUYBACKS Quarterly Share Repurchases & No. of Companies Repurchasing Shares Slows ................................................... 276
NEW-BUYBACKS Dollar-Value Buybacks to Free Cash Flow Trailing Twelve Month Basis ............................................................... 277
NEW-BUYBACKS Nearly 25% of Annual Buybacks Occur in November & December .......................................................................... 277
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 279
NEW-BUYBACKS Why Stocks Are Sliding: For The First Time Since 2009 Spending On Buybacks Surpasses Free Cash Flow ....... 279
NEW-BUYBACKS When Buybacks Fail... ................................................................................................................................................ 283
NEW-BUYBACKS "Risky Business": Companies Are Now Funding Share Buybacks By Selling Bonds To Other Companies ............ 284
SENTIMENT & CONFIDENCE Shifting Trend ................................................................................................................................................... 288
STUDY: SENTIMENT ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 288
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 288
NEW-SENTIMENT Goldmans Short Term Sentiment Indicator Shows Low Suggests Near Term Counter Rally Likely ................... 288
SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Begins Reversal from Trend Resistance ........................................................................... 289
SENTIMENT US Economic Index Steadily Eroding ................................................................................................................................. 290
SENTIMENT UMich Consumer Confidence with Biggest Miss on Record .............................................................................................. 290
SENTIMENT Economic Surprise Index lower highs, lower lows and a reluctant bounce .................................................................... 290
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 292
NEW-SENTIMENT Its like someone just flipped the Switch to OFF? .................................................................................................. 292
SENTIMENT Oblivious To Risk - Complacency Still Reigns ................................................................................................................... 296
SENTIMENT UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles to 12-Month Lows with Biggest Miss on Record ................................................. 300
SENTIMENT Elderly Americans' Confidence Collapses To 11-Month Lows (As Middle-Aged Hope Surges) ....................................... 301
STUDY: RISK-OFF ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 303
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 303
RISK-OFF Cumulative Flows by Client Type - YTD ................................................................................................................................. 303
BUYBACKS Largest Volumes of Buybacks by US Listed Corporation in Last Year ............................................................................... 668
BUYBACKS Corporations Are No Longer Investing But Rather Financial Engineering Stock Prices ..................................................... 669
BUYBACKS Q2 Drop-Off Closer to Normal .......................................................................................................................................... 670
BUYBACKS Borrowing to Buy back Shares ............................................................................................................................................. 670
BUYBACKS Cyclical Nature of Buybacks Evident ................................................................................................................................... 670
BUYBACKS Major Q2 Repurchases ........................................................................................................................................................ 671
BUYBACKS Major Q1 Repurchases ........................................................................................................................................................ 671
BUYBACKS Quarterly Repurchase & Buyback Yield ............................................................................................................................... 672
BUYBACKS US Corporate Cash versus Buybacks .................................................................................................................................. 673
BUYBACKS Net Debt/EBITDA of American Non-Financial Corporations ............................................................................................... 673
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 674
NEW-BUYBACKS Stock Buybacks To Grind To A Halt Following Massive Credit Fund Outflows, "Bond Carnage" ............................. 674
NEW-BUYBACKS"The End Of The Road" - Debt-Funded Buyback Boosts Are Finite ........................................................................... 676
NEW-BUYBACKS Why There Is No Growth: The Entire S&P 500 Free Cash Flow Is Going Back To Shareholders ............................ 679
NEW-BUYBACKS Do Share Buybacks Create Value? (Spoiler Alert: No) .............................................................................................. 680
NEW-BUYBACKS Surprise! CEOs Are Getting Rich by Buying Back Stock............................................................................................ 682
NEW-BUYBACKSThe End of Buybacks? Goldman Warns Political Pressure On Share Repurchases Is Rising................................... 687
NEW-BUYBACKSCorporate Buybacks: Connecting the Dots to the F-Word........................................................................................... 689
NEW-BUYBACKS Capex Recovery Is Worst In History, BoAML Says .................................................................................................... 694
NEW-BUYBACKS Stock Buybacks Move to the "Terminal" Next Stage .................................................................................................. 697
NEW-BUYBACKSOne Heckuva Bull Market ............................................................................................................................................. 699
BUYBACKS - The US Equity Bubble Depends On Corporate Buybacks; Here's the Proof ....................................................................... 700
BUYBACKS - Why Markets Are Manic - The Fed Is Addicted To the "Easy Button" ................................................................................. 704
BUYBACKS - When $140 Billion In Buybacks Isn't Enough... .................................................................................................................... 706
BUYBACKS - "Obsessive" Buybacks Could Be Big Mistake, "Serious" People Tell Unserious People .................................................... 706
BUYBACKS - Q3 Buybacks Surging, These Are The Top 20 Repurchasers Of Their Own Stock ............................................................ 710
BUYBACKS - Accounting Magic .................................................................................................................................................................. 712
BUYBACKS - The largest source of overall US equity demand in recent years......................................................................................... 714
BUYBACKS - Has Boosted Median Earnings Growth by 100 bps for S&P 500 ......................................................................................... 717
BUYBACKS - Companies Spend Almost All Profits On Buybacks ............................................................................................................. 722
BUYBACKS - Buyback At Biggest Pace Since 2007 .................................................................................................................................. 727
BUYBACKS - Buyback Party Slowing ......................................................................................................................................................... 729
BUYBACKS - Buyback Party Slowing ......................................................................................................................................................... 734
THE $2T TAX RUSE Its a Free Ride for US Corporations ......................................................................................................................... 739
UNPRECEDENTED BUYBACKS LEVELS ................................................................................................................................................. 739
A FREE TAX RIDE....................................................................................................................................................................................... 741
GENERIC TAX EXAMPLE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 741
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 746
CHARTS Finance the Biggest Source of Corporate Funds rising from 19% to 30% .................................................................................. 746
CHARTS Average Age of Private Fixed Assets ........................................................................................................................................... 747
CHARTS Percent of Families With Business Equity .................................................................................................................................... 747
CHARTS Percent of Families With Business Equity .................................................................................................................................... 748
CHARTS New England Patriots NFL Franchise Valuation ......................................................................................................................... 749
CHARTS US Equity Market is Not Outgrowing the Economy AS Measured by the Coincident Indicator .................................................. 750
CHARTS Deviation of Earnings Above / Below Long Term Growth Trend ................................................................................................. 751
CHARTS S&P 500, Moodys Baa Corporate & 30Y UST Yields ................................................................................................................. 751
CHARTS Corporations Carrying Higher Levels of Leverage than a Few Years Ago .................................................................................. 752
CHARTS US Corporate CFROI (Cash Flow ROI) ....................................................................................................................................... 753
CHARTS Weakening Sector Retunrs ........................................................................................................................................................... 753
CHARTS SPX, Corporate Profits versus Employed Population % .............................................................................................................. 754
CHARTS Executive Incentives Distort Earnings .......................................................................................................................................... 754
CAPITALIZATION Market Capitalization as a % of Nominal GDP .............................................................................................................. 755
CAPITALIZATION Market Capitalization Adjusted by Gold and CPI ........................................................................................................... 756
CAPITALIZATION Market Capitalization versus Total Federal Reserve Assets ......................................................................................... 757
CAPITALIZATION Total Market Capitalization versus M2 ........................................................................................................................... 758
CAPITALIZATION Total Market Capitalization versus Monetary Base ....................................................................................................... 759
CAPITALIZATION Total Market Capitalization versus Gross Federal Debt ................................................................................................ 760
CAPITALIZATION Market Capitalization Ratios .......................................................................................................................................... 761
CAPITALIZATION Regional Corporate Loss Comparisons Problems in Japan....................................................................................... 761
CHARTS 7 Year Total Return Cycle ............................................................................................................................................................ 762
CHARTS Profit Margins Shrink as Proportion of GDP ................................................................................................................................. 762
CHARTS Q1 Earnings Pre-Announcements ................................................................................................................................................ 763
CHARTS Q1 Earnings Taken Down Dramatically ....................................................................................................................................... 763
CHARTS Q1 Earnings Already Taken Down By 5% since January ............................................................................................................ 764
CHARTS Positive & Negative Q1 Pre-Announcements .............................................................................................................................. 764
CHARTS Q1 Revenue Slippage in Last 60 Days ........................................................................................................................................ 765
CHARTS Forward 12 Month EPS vs Price: 10-Year ................................................................................................................................... 766
CHARTS Forward 12 Month EPS vs Price: 10-Year ................................................................................................................................... 766
RESEARCH OF NOTE .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 768
NEW-FUNDAMENTALS A Bad Equilibrium & How Speculative Distortion Ends ....................................................................................... 768
NEW-FUNDAMENTALS Valuations ............................................................................................................................................................. 776
FUNDAMENTALS Corporate Profits Vaporizing .......................................................................................................................................... 781
FUNDAMENTALS Fundamentals No Longer Currently Matter - Proof ....................................................................................................... 785
FUNDAMENTALS Profit Margins - Is the Ladder Starting to Snap? ........................................................................................................... 786
FUNDAMENTALS The Great PE Multiple Expansion of 2011-2014 ........................................................................................................... 793
FUNDAMENTALS Stocks Have Never Been More Expensive Based On Long-Term Growth Forecasts .................................................. 797
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