July, 2003

The Iraqi Opposition

Dr Amr Al-Shobki

The policies of the US in Iraq since the invasion reveal that its primary
objectives are creating stability and eliminating the forces that oppose its
presence. Although the US has declared its wish to establish a real democratic
system, and has, in fact, supported the opposition and brought them back into
Iraq, it has now become convinced that this opposition is incapable at this time
of leading the country. The US has reached this conclusion as a result of
conditions related to the structure of the Iraqi opposition, in addition to the
problems involved in administering Iraq, and its plans for the Middle East as a
whole.

Although the size of the Iraqi opposition has increased significantly since 1991,
it is made up of a number of small and medium-sized organisations with different
political, religious and ethnic backgrounds that are bound only by their wish to
end the regime of Saddam Hussein and to gain an important political position
under the new regime.

The largest Shia organisation in the opposition camp is the Supreme Council for
Islamic Revolution in Iraq -Sciri-, headed by Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir Al-
Hakim and sponsored by Iran. There are grave concerns in Iraq regarding the
political role of the Shia in view of their ideas on politics, their historical
oppression by the Sunnis, as well as the implications of their link with Iran. Two
major parties are vying for control in the northern areas that have been under
Kurdish self-rule since 1991: the Kurdistan Democratic Party -KDP-, headed
by Massoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan -PUK-, led by Jalal
Talabani.

The most prominent organisation in the opposition is the Iraqi National

Congress -INC-, a coalition of a number of parties headed by Ahmed Chalabi.
The congress has received sponsorship from the US which allowed it to launch
a television station, Liberty TV, which broadcast from London last year, but
was discontinued on 1 May of this year. Several Iraqi organisations, such as
Sciri and Iraqi communist parties, have recently pulled out of the INC,
somewhat weakening its position. The two main Kurdish parties still support the
INC, but the most influential faction within it is that of the royal Hashemites.
Sharif Ali bin Al-Hussein, a descendant of the Hashemite Iraqi royal family, is
the INC spokesperson.

Former crown prince of Jordan Prince Al-Hassan's attendance at an opposition

conference in London in December 2002, in the company of Chalabi, was
considered a clear signal that the return of the monarchy may be an option in the
new Iraq. There are reports that the US supports this option, which would act
as an umbrella, transcending tribal and ideological differences. For now, though,
efforts to promote Al-Hassan as the future monarch have not yet met with
success, and are opposed by Sharif Ali, who considers himself the legitimate
heir. This situation could cause a rift within the royalist camp.
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The no-fly zones established in 1991 to protect the Kurds in the north and the
Shia in the south have deepened the sense of sectarian division among the Iraqi
opposition. Even relatively small minorities, such as the Assyrians, concentrated
in Kurdish areas, and the Turkmen, concentrated in Kirkuk, are now making
demands to receive special recognition. Great controversy broke out recently
when the KDP proposed the establishment of an Iraqi federation dividing the
Kurds from the Arabs.

The Kurds would like to add oil-rich Kirkuk and other areas to the ones
currently under Kurdish self-rule. They propose to have a Kurdish flag and
anthem and to instate Kurdish as the official language. There are, however,
divisions within the Kurds, as bitter rivalry and competition have long existed
between the two major parties. In 1996, Barzani was even accused of enlisting
the help of Saddam Hussein's troops against the forces of his rival, Talabani.

Various components of the Iraqi opposition, including the INC, have begun to
express their dissatisfaction with US policies in Iraq after the war. They feel the
US has gone back on its promise to include them as partners in running the
country during the transitional period. The US has come to realise that this
opposition, which has been mainly based outside Iraq, has not been quickly
able to establish a strong presence on the domestic scene, lacks leadership
figures of national renown and is weakened by internal divisions. In view of the
problems involved in administrating Iraq, as well as the armed resistance the US
is still encountering, the US administration has come to the conclusion that the
opposition cannot assume leadership at this point.

In the absence of a viable political class with a significant degree of support, the
US has turned to enlisting the help of Iraqi administrators and technocrats, not
only to run the affairs of the country, but also to play a political role. This
decision will have negative consequences by depriving Iraq the opportunity to
create a democratically elected political class with the imagination and capability
to extract the country from this crisis. It will also undermine popular confidence
in the new regime, as the same faces from the old regime remain. This was the
case when the Americans reinstated the Baghdad chief of police, which
provoked strong objections from the Iraqi people. These administrators are
chosen primarily for their willingness and ability to follow orders, regardless of
the nature of those who issue them. They will block all the forces of the
opposition, those in alliance with the US and those who resist its continued
presence in Iraq.

This aside, it seems that the US is reluctant to create an Iraqi political order until
its plans for the region are well established. This is because it wants to bring to
power a political elite that will espouse normalisation and regional cooperation
with all Iraq's neighbours, including Israel, and integrate it firmly into the world
market. The US understands that such an elite cannot find support among the
Iraqi people as long as images of dead children, destroyed homes and
assassinated political leaders continue to flow out of Palestine. Thus the US is
pushing ahead to create a solution to the Palestinian problem in order to create
appropriate regional conditions to establish the new Iraq. The new Iraq
according to the US vision will have a democratic face, and will make a clean
break with the practices of the old regime as well as the Arab ideologies and
practices that have prevailed for the last 50 years. Until these conditions have
been met, the US will shelve the political issue in Iraq. The Iraqi opposition,
meanwhile, is likely to remain on the sidelines for some time to come.

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