Assessment Schedule KOHIA 2014 (Statistics) BOARD GAMES: AS91585

Achievement

Achievement with Merit

Achievement with Excellence

Apply probability concepts in solving problems involves:

selecting and using methods
demonstrating knowledge of concepts and terms
communicating using appropriate representations.

Apply probability concepts, using relational

thinking, in solving problems involves:
selecting and carrying out a logical sequence
of steps
connecting different concepts or
representations
demonstrating understanding of concepts
and also relating findings to a context or
communicating thinking using appropriate
statements.

Apply probability concepts, using extended abstract

thinking, in solving problems involves:
devising a strategy to investigate or solve a problem
identifying relevant concepts in context
developing a chain of logical reasoning
making a statistical generalisation
and also where appropriate, using contextual
knowledge to reflect on the answer.

Evidence Statement
One

Expected Coverage

Achievement (u)

(a)
Probability of landing on the place =

23+ 30+37
200

90
200

= 0.45 or 45%

Merit (r)

Probability correctly
calculated.
Allow for estimation
between 40% - 50%

(b)

Consider the four combinations: (2,5), (3,4), (4,3) and (5,2).

P(2,5) =

1
36

4
1296

Calculation of two
relevant probabilities
of (2,5), (3,4), (4,3)
or (5,2).

3
36

6
1296

Any rounding.

2
36

6
1296

4
36

P(3,4) =

2
36

P(4,3) =

3
36

AS91585 Kohia 2014

Correct probability
calculated, with some
working.
Any rounding.

Excellence (t)

P(5,2) =

4
36

1
36

4
1296

Using the addition rule, P(landing on Take a chance) =

4
1296
(c)

20
1296

4
1296

6
1296

6
1296

= 1.54%

The most likely die roll combination is 7, because it has the most outcomes (1,6), (2,5), (3,4),
(4,3), (5,2), (6,1) as compared to any other combination. The distribution of probabilities is
symmetric about the number 7. OR The mean result or expected value of one throw is 7.

Calculates about 6
turns.

Calculates about 6
turns with justification
and one assumption
given.

Calculates about
5 turns with
logical reasoning.

Calculates P(rolling
three doubles), any
rounding.

Correct calculation
with one error, any
rounding.

Correct answer
with working, any
rounding.

Therefore, given there are 40 spaces on the board, 40 spaces 7 moves = 5.71
This approximates to about 6 turns to go around the board. Assumptions are that the
probability of going to jail or being sent elsewhere by Take a Chance or Community card are
small and dont have much effect on the number of turns.
Since people get another throw if they roll doubles, the expected value of one turn is more than
7.
The expected move is 7 whether doubles is rolled or not.
If going to jail is counted as equivalent to a move of zero, the expected number of spaces
moved in a turn is

5
1 5
1 1 5
7+ 14+ 21=8.264
6
6 6
6 6 6

408.264 = 4.840
The small chance of being moved by a card or going to jail would make the number of turns
slightly higher than 4.84, but not much.
The expected number of turns to go around the board is about 5.
(d)

P(rolling 3 doubles | go to jail)

rolling 3 doublesgoing
go
=
P( jail )
P ( jail )

AS91585 Kohia 2014

Coin
Coin

=(

Yes
No

6 Spinner 1
3
[ 40No +
36 ) Yes

Yes
No

18
4
22

2
1
3

N1

No relevant
evidence.

8
40

Spinner
Yes
No
18
2
4
1
22
3

1
15

20
5
25

Making
progress.

20
5
25

+(

6
3
36 ) ] =

25
232

= 0.1077 = 10.77%

N2

A3

A4

M5

M6

E7

E8

1 of u

2 of u

3 of u

1 of r

2 of r

1t

2 of t

Two
Expected Coverage
Achievement (u)
Merit (r)
Excellence (t)
(a)
P(SC) = 4/25
Tree, table or Venn diagram
Probability found from incorrect tree, table or Venn Diagram.
(b)
P(Not used spinner Not used coin) = 1/25 = 0.04.
As experimental probability is greater than zero at 0.04, the events are not mutually exclusive. The sample size is small at n = 25 but if even one person in the population has used neither spinner
nor coin toss that is evidence that the two events are not mutually exclusive.
Identification of relevant theory related to mutually exclusive events.
Explanation of why events are not mutually exclusive with justification.
(c)
P(Player two wins) =
P(wins first turn) + P(wins third turn)
= (

1
2

1
2

) + (

3
4

5
6

2
5

)=

1
2

P(Player one wins) = P(wins second turn) + P(Wins third turn)

=(

3
4

1
6

) +(

3
4

5
6

3
5

)=

1
2

As it is equally likely for either Player one or Player two to win, Oliver could omit this section of the game and this have no effect on the long-term outcomes of the game, given it is based on luck as
opposed to skill.
AS91585 Kohia 2014

He could choose the starter more quickly eg he could have the players flip a coin which could be a quicker, although potentially a less exciting way to start the game.
Tree, table or Venn diagram with three probabilities correctly identified

Tree, table or Venn diagram with all relevant probabilities correctly identified, or correct working allow one calculation error
Correct statement in context about
equally likely probabilities, supported by working.
AND
Advice given to Oliver consistent with equally likely probabilities and sensible advice given for the game.
N
N1
N2
A3
A4
M5
M6
E7
E8
No relevant evidence.
Making progress.
1 of u
2 of u
3 of u
1 of r
2 of r
1 of t with minor error
1 of t

Three

Expected Coverage

Achievement (u)

(a)

P(both lose) = (1/3 x x 2/3 x x 5/6 x 7/8) = 35/576 =

0.0625

Probability of one player losing correctly

calculated.

(b)

P(Primula wins) = P(P wins first round)

Correctly calculates probability of one

winning outcome.

OR P(P wins the second round)

OR P(P wins third round)
= (x ) + (x x x )+ (x x x x 5/6 x )
= 1/6 + 1/36 + 5/576 = 13/64 = 0.2031

AS91585 Kohia 2014

Merit (r)
Correctly calculates
probability.
CAO
Correctly calculates
probability.
CAO

Excellence (t)

(c)

P(KwinsKfirst) =(+ x x + x x x x1/6)

= 53/144 = 0.3681

Correctly calculates probability of one

winning outcome.

Correctly calculates
probability of
P(KwinsKfirst) OR
P(KwinsKsecond) OR
P(kwins)

P(KwinsKsecond) =( + +
x1/6) = 223/1152 = 0.1936
P(kwins)=0.3681+0.1936 = 0.5617

Correctly calculates probability of

P(k firstK wins)
CAO

CAO

P(k firstK wins) = P(kwinskfirst)K wins)

= 0.3681/0.5617 = 0.6553
(d)

Model distribution of probabilities out of 100 if

probabilities are as described at start of question with
Katrin going first:

Number of
arrows for
a win
1

Primula

Katrin

18

Calculates number or proportion of

expected wins for 1, 2 and 3 arrows for
either Primula or Katrin.

67
3

Calculates number or
proportion of expected
wins for 1, 2 and 3
arrows for both Primula
and Katrin, AND notes
difference in
probabilities for model
and observations.

Calculates number or proportion of expected

wins for 1, 2 and 3 arrows for both Primula and
Katrin, AND notes difference in probabilities for
model and observations.
The size of difference between probabilities is
noted and explanations for possible reasons are
given wrt to sample size and sampling variability
and/or change in model probabilities.

In the observed games Primula is winning more often

than the model predicts. Even though 100 is a relatively
small sample size for investigating a probability, Primula
is winning 67% more often than predicted, which is a
bigger difference than would be expected due to
sampling variability. Katrins and Primulas estimates of
their probability of winning may need to be adjusted.
N

N1

N2

A3

A4

M5

M6

E7

E8

No relevant
evidence.

Making
progress.

1 of u

2 of u

3 of u

1 of r

2 of r

1 of t

2 of t

Judgement Statement
Not Achieved

Achievement

Achievement
with Merit

Achievement
with Excellence

07

8 12

13 18

19 24

Score range

AS91585 Kohia 2014