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3 Cohn, Mike (2014, 9 September). The main benefit of story points. Accessed 2015 13 October from
https://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/the-main-benefit-of-story-points
The product owner starts by reading a user story. It may be the highest-priority story or a
small story to set a baseline for other stories to size relatively. Estimators ask questions to
get more details about the story, and when they are ready, they play a card face-down and
all cards are revealed at the same time. If the team has a consensus, then the product
owner records the estimate and moves on to the next story. If there is not a consensus, the
ScrumMaster and product owner lead discussions to account for variances. These
discussions can result in changes to estimates, which continue until consensus is achieved.
Planning poker is a fun exercise that provides teams equal footing to discuss estimates and
can also be used to unearth project risks.
3. Task estimates in hours. While story points and relative sizing work well at the user story
level, eventually teams need to break stories into tasks and assign hours. This breakdown
helps teams fit their work into iterations and better communicate progress with
stakeholders. Teams create the task level estimation in hours during iteration planning so
they have a high level of accuracy when they start the work. Hours are typically measured in
ideal time, or the amount of time a task will take with no interruptions. Because it is not
realistic to expect zero interruptions, teams commonly use a focus factor, like 0.6 or 0.8, to
adjust estimates. This adjustment accounts for time spent in meetings, operational work, or
absences.
To effectively estimate in hours at the task level, teams need to develop skill in three areas.
First, they need to be able to break down user stories. How small a story needs to be
depends on many different factors, including the teams comfort level. As a general rule, if a
story is so large that it cannot fit in one iteration, then it needs to be broken down. Teams
can break down user stories in many ways, including finding tasks from multiple steps in a
story, looking for themes where stories are related, and looking at teams specialized skills
and breaking down tasks to determine the right fit for team members.
Second, teams need a clear definition of done. In agile, the definition of done is the set
of criteria the team agrees on to consider a task or story complete. Teams need to establish
this criteria for each story so they can estimate based on everything that needs to finish to
satisfy the criteria. If teams dont set a definition of done, their estimates will be off
because they do not have a clear signal that a story is finished. If the definition of done is
missing important tasks like testing and acceptance, then the estimates will be too low. For
these reasons, effective estimates depend on a clear and complete definition of done.
Finally, teams need a mechanism for assessing their own skills and developing targets for
improvement. In agile, they have this mechanism in the form of retrospectives. Teams
should make sure that they hold retrospectives at the end of each iteration. Whereas the
iteration review helps the team and the customer discuss the product and identify areas of
improvement, the retrospective is more of a meta-meeting where the team looks at its own
processes and identifies areas of improvement. Because estimating is tied so closely to
other parts of the process, like iteration and release planning and velocity, looking at the
estimation process with a critical eye is crucial for teams to develop their skill at estimating.
Conclusion
Many of the inherent challenges of estimating projects are still present in agile. Developing effective
estimates is difficult when the requirements are not clear and information is not known. When team
members vary in productivity, their estimates can vary. If technical solutions need to scale, team
members can struggle with scaling the estimate to match. In addition, estimates carry risks if they are
too low or too high, and many team members are reluctant to even make estimates for this reason.
Teams can overcome these challenges and produce estimates that help them succeed on their projects,
even in agile. They can achieve this goal by following a progressively elaborating process for estimating,
starting from the abstract t-shirt size, going to the more precise story points from planning poker, and
then estimating specific tasks in hours. By strengthening their skill at breaking down user stories and
clarifying their definition of done, teams can develop estimates that precisely communicate the size of
the project and the effort required to deliver it. Finally, through effective use of retrospectives, teams
can assess their progress with these skills and brainstorm ways to improve.
Many of the struggles with estimating in an agile way are natural for new agile teams or teams that are
not effective at estimating. Overcoming these struggles will help them turn their estimating skills into an
advantage, putting them on the path to becoming mature agile teams.
References
1. Cohn, Mike (2014, 9 September). The main benefit of story points. Accessed 2015 13
October from https://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/the-main-benefit-of-storypoints
2. Wikipedia (2015). Parkinsons Law. Accessed 2015 13 October from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson's_law