8.

Recent Lessons from

The Great East Japan Earthquake

Mikio Ishiwatari, Ph.D

Japan International Cooperation Agency

Thank you
for Assistance
Committed from 159 countries & 43 org.
Rescue Team from 28 countries & org.
Relief goods from 56 countries & org.
Donation from 83 countries & org.

Contents
1.Scale of Damage
2.Earthquake
3.Tsunami
4.Prediction & Preparedness
5.How Japanese Technology Worked?
6.Consideration

1 Scale of Damage

Taro Town: >20m Tsunami

ordinary fishingy villages
devastated by disordinary
tsunami along mountainous
coast

Yuriage, Natori City

9m height tsunami washed away everything in plain

Scale of Damage, JPN tiny island?

250-300miles

iwate

sendai

fukushima

ibaraki
tokyo

chiba

Comparison with Hurricane Katrina, 2005

A Dozen of Katrina Attacked

//

Sendai,
Tsunami

//

250-300
miles
max.
3.5 miles

New Orleans, Hurricane

Katrina, 2005

20 miles

max.
7 miles

Rikuzentakada
City

(source: Asia Air Survey Co., Ltd.)

Railway Bridge washed away by Tsunami wave at Tsuyagawa

Bridge, Kesennuma Line (Photo: JR East)

Casualty / Population

Damage Ratio by Local

Municipality Level

Over 0 to 0.01%
- 0.02%
- 0.05%
- 0.20%
- 0.50%
- 2.00%
- 5.00%
- over 5%

Relatively high value

of damage ratio came
at cities and towns
where have been
functioning as regional
centers like Onagawa,
Minamisanriku,
Rikuzentakada, etc.

Cause of death
others

burn

unknown

drowning

Source: White Paper on Disaster Management, 2011

Age distribution
Ages

Rate of
Over 60s
Population
Sep 1 2010
Source: White Paper on Disaster Management, 2011

Casualties
Apr 11 2011

Rikuzentakata City
Ofunato City

7km
4.5 miles

>560 km2 inundated

area (km2)

inudation ration (%)

64 cities

70

60

Summary
Summary of Damage (as of 21 Feb 2012)

Death Missing Injured

Iwate

4,670

1,313

188

Miyagi

9,511

1,754

4,133

Fukushima

1,605

216

182

other

66

1,508

Total

15,852

3,287

6,011

The most devastating disaster in Japan

Source: White Paper on Disaster Management, 2011

Rehabilitation Progress as of 20 June

Evacuee: 124,954
Temporally Shelter
Prefabricated house
needs:
51,315
started construction: 42,769
completed const.:
31,236

Moving from EmergencyShelter,

Temporal house, to Permanent housings
Emergency
shelter

Temporal
house

Relatives
house

Permanent
housings
Other area
Fukushima

Miyagi

17 Nov

2 Nov

2 June

17 Nov

2 Nov

2 June

17 Nov

2 Nov

2 June

17 Nov

2 Nov

2 June

Iwate

Operation Comb

Reconstruction plan
Reconstruction Committee Proposed

village
fishery facilities

tsunami
dyke

evacuation
tower

2. Earthquake

Project Study on the Effective Countermeasures

against Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters

Aleutian trench

North American plate

Eurasian plate
Himalaya

Kuril trench
Japan trench
Caribbean
plate

Mariana trench

Arabian plate

Philippine Sea
plate
African
plate

Cocos
plate

Mid-Atlantic
ridge

Pacific plate

Australian plate

Subduction zone
Indistinct plate boundary
Ridge and transform fault

Plate movement

Distribution of
earthquakes of the world
(M4.0 100Km or less depth, 1975-1994)

Science chronology, 1997

Nazca
plate

Antarctic plate

South American plate

Plate boundaries of
the world

Earthquake in Japan
Plates around Japan
Overriding plate

trench

Japan trench Izu-Ogasawara

Sagami trough

Philippine Sea
plate

Distribution of earthquakes in Japan

Pacific
plate

Japan and its surrounding epicentral distribution

Source: Nihon no jishin katsudo (Seismic activity of Japan), edited

by Earthquake Research committee

Source: material provided from JMA

Earthquake Mechanism
Eurasia Plate

Epicenter

Pacific Plate

Philippines Sea Plate

The event occurred on the plate boundary between the Pacific

and the Continental plates near the Japan Trench subduction
Project Study on the Effective Countermeasures
zone.
against Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters

Distribution of Seismic Intensity

Maximum seismic
intensity 7 (JMA
Seismic Intensity)
was recorded at
Kurihara City,
Miyagi Prefecture.

Source: White Paper on Disaster Management, 2011

Project Study on the Effective Countermeasures

against Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters

Historical Earthquake Record around Japan

1983 South East of Hokkaido
Eq.
Eurasia Plate
1896 Meiji-Sanriku Eq.
Epicenter
1933
Showa-Sanriku
Eq.

1983 Sea of Japan Eq.

1923 Kanto
Eq.
Pacific Plate
1854 Ansei-Tokai
Eq.
1854 Ansei-Nankai Eq.

Philippines Sea Plate

Project Study on the Effective Countermeasures
against Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters

The Largest Earthquakes

The earthquake has the largest magnitude ever

recorded in Japan. and 4th largest in the world.

Aftershocks
More than 500
aftershock with
larger than Mw5.0
500km (NSdirection) and
200km (EWdirection)
Largest aftershock
occurred at 15:15
on March 11 (JST)
with Mw7.7.

29

The fault slip distribution in the focal region

The maximum
slip is 30m

Fault slip distance

(m)
Source: Meteorological
Research Institute,
http://www.mrijma.go.jp/Dep/sv/2011t
ohokutaiheiyo/sourceprocess2.pdf

Crustal Movements
Subsidence

Horizontal
Movement

30cm

5.3 m

1.2 m
2m

31

3. Tsunami

Mechanism of tsunami generation (1)

When strong earthquake
generated at shallow point
under sea bed, uplift or
depression of sea bed occurs.
Drag act

deformation of the sea bed

influences sea surface and is
transformed to waves,
spreading to all directions

Strong earthquake generated near

plate boundary (near the ocean
trench) is likely to cause tsunami.

Tsunami

Elastic rebound

Image: abstract from website of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED)

Mechanism of tsunami generation (2)

wave propagation of tsunami is faster when sea is deeper. While tsunami
speed reduces as approaches shore later waves catch up and pile onto front
wave, gradually increasing its height.
Sea level change
(tsunami)

Sea level rise

Fast

Fast

Slow
Sea bed
(shallow)

Sea bed
(deep)

Crustal
movement
due to
earthquake

Fault
movement
(earthquake)

Tsunami may strike in few minutes if the seismic source is close.

Evacuation first, when strong shake is felt at the shore!

Difference in height of tsunami depending

on landscape

The height of tsunami at the shore is influenced by the landscape. The wave is extremely high at
the end of a V-shaped gulf, and the edge of a cape is also high due to the concentration of
tsunami. Sea with shoals also have the effect to heighten tsunami.
Severe damage was caused to Aonae (cape shaped landscape) of Okushiri Island in the 1993
Hokkaido Nansei Oki earthquake, due to the tsunami heightened by the landscape.

Difference between tsunami and wave

Few kilometers ~ few hundred kilometers wavelength
Few meters ~ few hundred meters wavelength

Waves or heaves are motions of seawater on the surface only, and their
wavelength are few meters to few hundred meters.
On the other hand, tsunami is a motion of all the seawater from the sea bed
to the surface, and the wavelength can be few kilometers to few hundred
kilometers. Because of this long wavelength, the waves cannot be confirmed
visually.
Since it is a movement of massive seawater, it has an enormous energy.

Tsunami Warning
Tsunami
warning was
issued
immediately
after the
earthquake.
However, the
estimated
height was
lower than that
of actual one.

Tsunami
Propagation
Simulation

Prof. Satake,
Earthquake Research Institute, Univ. of Tokyo
http://outreach.eri.utokyo.ac.jp/eqvolc/201103_tohoku/#tsunamibackp

Project Study on the Effective Countermeasures

against Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters

Tsunami Propagation
Tsunami Travel Time
Sanriku area (the
nearest coast to the
epicenter):
about 30 min
Hawaii:
about 8 hours
Pacific Coast of the
USA:
9 to 12 hours
Chile: 22 hours

Project Study on the Effective Countermeasures

against Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters

Inundation Area

Sample in Ofunato,
Rikuzentakata and
Kesennuma
Results of tsunami inundation
area survey by GSI,

Tsunami inundation area

561 km2 was inundated

by the tsunami.
(GSI Study using aero-photo
taken just after the tsunami)
Source: White Paper on Disaster Management, 2011

4. Prediction & preparedness

How JPN Gov. predicted?

Earthquake Prediction in 2010
Miyagi
99% in 30 yrs
but M 8.0
Fukushima
7% in 30 yrs
fukushima

Headquarters for Earthquake REsearch Promotoion

(2010)

Miyagi Pref. Prepared M 8.0 earthquake

http://www.jma-net.go.jp/sendai/jishin-kazan/soutei.htm

Tsunami Prediction and Actual Figure

40m
ibaraki

fukushima

Miyagi

Iwate

Aomori

MLIT

No needed for preparation?

Almost same scale tsunami occured in 869
Jogan Earthquake in 869

http://www.dcrc.tohoku.ac.jp/surveys/20110311/docs/20110413_12sugawara.pdf

Tsnami Repeatedly Occured

Tsunami

Year

Great East
Japan

2011

40.2 m

Meiji Sanriku

1896

38.2

Syowa Sanriku 1933

28.7

Chile

1960

Tsunami
Max. Hight

Deat+
M
Missing
20,000 9.0
22,000 8.2-8.5
3,000 8.1
142 (9.5)

5. How JPN Technology Worked?

What worked? What not?
1. against earthquake
2. land use
3. dyke
4. Hazard map
5. warning
6. evacuation

Death+Missing / Death+Missing+Evacuee
m

rik
in
k
am es uz
ya
a t ish
o
e e
o k
m
ya m
am n suy inom nag isan nn nta hu am
m i
o
u
n
a
a
k
a
ot to m ak aw rik m at at ish tu ad yak
a
u a
o ri a
a o
a o
i
i ti

hi
ga
sh
im

Damage Ratio
evacuation ration

0
10
20

Goto (2011)

30

1. Counter measures against earthquake

Based on lessons learned from Kobe Earthquake in 1994,

Retrofitting Work Promoted.

Why so enormous damage? Because....

2. Development
Kesennuma City

current

in 1906

80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1947

1940

1935

1930

1925

1920

Population of the city

(2011)

Moving to Highlands in 1933 and Safe

Yoshihama Town

Following tsunami in 1933,

43 communities moved to high gorund.
Most backed to original places after 10 yrs

2011

3. Did Dyke Worked?

If Tsunami is Lower, Dyke Worked, of Course.

Fudai Town; 15.5m dike protected town.

Kassi River

To what extent structural

measures were effective?
Without Breakwater Wall
Kassi River
Breakwater
Wall

Kamaishi Port, well known as tsunami resilient port protected by

the world largest class breakwater wall, was damaged seriously.
The breakwater wall, which had been standing at the mouth of
Kamaishi Bay, collapsed and the Tsunami washed the urban area
of Kamaishi City, reaching up to 6.9 to 9m elevation at several
points.
The breakwater wall, however, impeded tsunami energy to the
extent considerably by 40%.
According to the analysis by the Port and Airport Research
Institute, simulated tsunami without the wall would have reached
up to 13.7m elevation and would cause further cruel damages in
wider areas than which happened and was measured.
Without Breakwater Wall

With Breakwater Wall

Blue dotted line indicates the far most edge of

reached Tsunami, ground traced by PARI

Source: The Port and Airport Research Institute

(PARI)

With Breakwater Wall

Breaking
Tsunami

-40%

-50%

High mounted road blocked Tsunami

East Sendai Highway
Radar image, taken at 5:38 on 13
March 2011, detects Tsunami
affected area where the radar wave
get absorbed by inundated water,
indicated as red color.
(Source: Kokusai Kogyo)
The East Sendai Highway saved city
area from Tsunami by standing as
final blockade.

Most areas under 10m

Elevation level were washed
away by the Tsunami at Sendai
and Natori, both in Miyagi
prefecture, and northern cities
in Fukushima prefecture.
(Source: PASCO)

Some
success
stories

Although the catastrophic damage over the coastal area of Tohoku was the highest record,
some communities were saved from Tsunami by protection walls and gates.
Fudai Village, Iwate, is the one protected by Tsunami Gate, which was constructed at 300m
upstream from Fudai River mouth, with 15.5m height, 200m length and 3.6 billion yen in 1984,
with consciousness of Meiji Sanriku Big Tsunami occurred in 1896 while more than one
thousand casualties were recorded in the village.
The latest Tsunami overtopped the gate and relating embankment, however, ceased at 200m
upstream from the gate and ended with no damage on housing area in the village.
(Photo: Nikkei BP)

30.0

25.0

Tsunami Higher than Most Dykes

35.0

T.P.(m)

T.P.(m)

T.P.(m)

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

Past Tsunami Hight and Dyke Hight

MLIT

Before

After

Fukushima Daiichi
Nuclear Power Station,
Fukushima

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

(SourceWebsite of Tokyo Electronic Power Company

http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/betu11_e/images/110409e9.pdf)

4. Hazard Map Did Not Worked Enough

Natori City:

Did not show Hazard Areas

Predicted Smaller Area

Source: GSI

http://www.pref.miyagi.jp/sabomizusi/bousai/bou-ht2.html

The Tsunami overloads far beyond preparedness

Tsunami hazard map

Tsunami hazard map of Soma City, Fukushima pref., is one example of widely
distributed and well trained disaster preparedness tools in East Coast of
Tohoku, Japan. The map indicates simulated tsunami affection area based on
three different earthquakes of magnitude 8.2 at Miyagi Coast, 8.6 at Sanriku
Coast that we experienced in Meiji era and 7.7 at Fukushima Coast.
The devastating tsunami in 2011, as shown on the aero photo, overloaded far
beyond their design maximum areas prepared in disaster management.
(Source: Soma City)

Hazard map and real affection

Source: White Paper on Disaster Management, 2011

Hazard map and real affection

At Sendai City

Source: White Paper on Disaster Management, 2011

At Ishinomaki City

Have you seen Hazard Map?

In Natori and Kamaishi Cities

Yes

No
72.5%

cabinet office

Death in White (Safe Predicted) Area

Kamaishi City

Unosumai

Kamaishiwan
Ryouishiwan
Toniwan

whte area
65%

Total
0

modification from Sankei Shinbun

risk area

35%

200 400 600 800 1000

5. Tsunami Warning
Communication
satellite

Flow of observation data

Command and Data Acquisition Center

(CDAC)

DCP
Approx. 600
locations

Earthquake
observation station
Tidal observatory,
etc. approx. 80
locations

Tide observatory

(Sapporo, Sendai, Osaka, Fukuoka, Okinawa)

Tsunami
wave height
(tide level)

Tsunami forecast station

Citizens, ships,
etc.

Earthquake Phenomena Observation System

(EPOS) (JMA)
Earthquake and Tsunami Observation System
(ETOS)

Municipality

Transmission
device

Mass media, Prefectures, police,

Japan Coast Guard (JCG), NTT

Seismom
eter

Seismic
waveform

Tsunami forecast

Approx. 180
locations

Earthquake information

Seismic intensity
observation station

Local meteorological
observatory

Seismic intensity meter

Seismic intensity information

Seismic
intensity
information

Seismic intensity early warning is announced after 2 minutes, and

tsunami forecast after 3 minutes after earthquake

5. Tsunami Warning

JMA

Tsunami Warning
Aomori

issued 3 min. after

earthquake
But,
estimated height: 3m

Iwate

Miyagi
fukushima
Project Study on the Effective Countermeasures
against Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters

5. Warning

Minami Sanriku City

6. Evacuation

6. Evacuation
62%
Immidiately
Evacuation

38%
Not Immidiately
Evacuation

1
2

confirming family members' safty: 25

5
didn't consider hifher tsunami than dyke: 24
4
clearning after earthquake: 21
3
based on experience: 20
2
didn't consider Tsunami: 141
cabinet office

10

15

20

25

Evacuation actions, regrettable level

By which Media did you get
the Tsunami Alert?
Relatives

Radio
Community
wireless

TV

Mobile Mail

Mobile News
Internet

It took about 23.3 minutes in average, for evacuated people in

five prefectures in Tohoku Region, to know the Tsunami Alert after
the occurrence of the Earthquake. Since the nations average time
duration of alert delivery is 16 to 17 minutes, the Tohoku area
seems to have alarming disadvantage.
The most typical information source of Tsunami Alert used by
people was TV, followed by internet and relating mail and news
services.
Only 6% of people in coastal area have evacuated themselves to
higher ground or buildings and 2% have left away from coast.
Source: WEATHERNEWS Inc.

What did you do after the

Tsunami Alert?
Others

Went away from coast

Did nothing

2%
5% 7%
6%
53%
Didnt move for the time 6%
10%
Evacuated to higher place

Didnt notice the alert

11%

Act as usual

Kept staying
because the
location
seemed safe

6. Evacuation
Successful by Students in Kamaishi City
students started evacuation promptly and voluntarily, following
their experiences of evacuation drills.

1. Never stick to original plan.

2. Do your best: Try to escape higher
3. Lead evacuation
(Source: Research Center for Disaster Prevention in the Extended Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Gunma University)

Rikuzen-Takada

Photo: Kazuhiro Ikeya, Free Writer Nikkei BP

6. Evacuation: Shelter

6. Evacuation
Otsuchi City Hall

Project Study on the Effective Countermeasures

against Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters

Fudai Town
Tusnami protection dike with the height of 15.5m
protected town.

Taro Town
Tsunami destroyed tsunami breakwater (left) and arrived
town with more than 20m, and washed the town away
(down).

Source:
http://www.opens
treetmap.org/

Touni Town
Tsunami overtopped 12.5m height tsunami barrier (left)
and destroyed the houses (right).

Yoshihama Town
Yoshihama suffered serious damage in the 1933 tsunami and
Project
Study on the Effective
Countermeasures
moved the residential area
to high-lands.
Because
of this, the
against
Earthquake
and
Tsunami
Disasters
village suffered damage mainly to the farmland, and almost
none to houses.

Motoyoshi Town

About 10m tsunami arrived this area. Due to tsunami

and land subsidence by the earthquake, sea water came
into about 300m inland from original coastline.
(Photo: on Mar. 27, 2011 by Matsumaru)

Damaged roof
parts of the
apartment.

Yuriage area, Natori City

Minami-Sanriku Town
Apartment designated as a
tsunami escape building at the
head of bay of Minami-sanriku
Town. The tsunami came up to
the roof of this building with the
height of 15.5m
(Photo: on Mar. 27, 2011 by
Matsumaru)

Project Study on the Effective Countermeasures

against Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters

A tsunami with about 9m height arrived at the coast of Yuriage town, Natori City, and it
washed out entire town. (Photo taken on Mar. 29, 2011 by Matsumaru)

Inside of Terminal Building of Sendai Airport

Terminal building is located about 1km from the coastline

and was inundated about 3m.
(Photo: Mar. 29, 2011 by Matsumaru)

Destroyed Pier at Soma Port

Diffracted tsunami wave concentrated and

destroyed piers.
(Photo: Mar. 29, 2011 by Matsumaruu)

Damaged Seawall (not for

Tsunami) at Isobe, Soma City

About 7m tsunami destroyed

seawall.
(Photo:
2011
by
Project
Study Mar.
on the29,
Effective
Countermeasures
against Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters
Matsumaru)

How Community Responded

Volunteer Firefighting
Organization (Communitybased & Part-time)
Gate Operation
Tsunami Warning
Tsunami Monitoring
Lead Evacuation
Death and Missiong: 201+48
http://www.fdma.go.jp

Summary
Countermeasures against Earthquake
Disaster Management Education at School

Early warning
Evacuation Shelter
Hazard Map
Dyke
Prediction

3min.
3m

How to Prepare?
5-10m
M8
Miyazaki/ Iwate

M9
Fukushim
a

Resettlement
Development (Urbanization and Nuclear Plant)
at Risk Area

6. Consideration
Put people at the center of Disaster Management
What is the most improtant? : .......

Precise Hazard mapping

Quick warning
High Tsunami Dyke
Landuse planning
Evacuation by Students

From Engineering-oriented to Human-oriented

From Supply-driven to Demand Driven
To Share Our Experiences
In Return for Support & Kindness from the World

To Organize International Panel of Experts to Review

Countermeasures
Never Closed Process

Implication to future JICAs projects

1. Improvement of Non-structural measures
Non-structural measures, such as hazard map and early
warning system, are increasingly important, to compliment
structural measures.
Lessons from the Great East Japan Earthquake
(1) Information dissemination system was insufficient.
(2) Risk assumption based on hazard map was not always
correct.
- Non-structural measures need to be improved based on the
experiences and lessons learned.
- Capacity development is necessary to enable imagination of
worst scenario, flexible response and repetitive awareness
raising.

Implication to future JICAs projects

2. Outreach to the people
Japan was regarded as one of the most prepared countries
against natural disasters by various systems.
Lessons from the Great East Japan Earthquake
(1) Magnitude of natural hazard may exceed expectation and
design standards. Protecting lives should be prioritized.
(2) Downside risks for the elderly people and other vulnerable
people
(3) Challenging reconstruction in depopulated and aging areas
- Disaster management measures need to reach to the people
to save their lives.
- More attention should be paid to the vulnerable people and
livelihood throughout the disaster management cycle
(Human Security).

Implication to future JICAs projects

3. Promoting knowledge sharing
Low frequency of tsunamis and mega-earthquakes even in
disaster-prone countries like Japan

Lessons from the Great East Japan Earthquake

(1) Difficulty to inherit memories of past disasters over
generations
(2) Perception bias by the people to rare event

- Lessons from low frequency disasters should be shared by

the entire world to prepare for the coming event.
- JICA is ready to work as a catalyst to send lessons learned
and exchange knowledge worldwide.

http://www.env.go.jp/park

Lessons from GEJE 2011

Progressive
Adaptation
against
Changing
Conditions,
KAIZEN

Active
Risk
Communication
among
all Disaster
Management
Players

Redundant
Prevention /
Mitigation
Measures and
Disaster
Management
Operation

a1: Probabilistic risk analysis with scientific knowledge

b1: Continuous revision and upgrading of disaster management standard
b2: Risk analysis under changing local natural and social condition
c1: Comprehensive geological, archaeological and historical research
c2: Safe side early warning of the largest possible hazard
c3: Realistic explanation of warning and disaster information
c4: Redundant information delivery in cooperation with various practitioners
d1: Multiple structural measures supported by sub-functional structure
d2: Redundant combination of structural and non-structural measures to minimize hazard
d3: Risk communication to raise awareness of disaster management measures, limitations and
probable risks
e1: Construction of evacuation sites and escape routes integrated with city planning
e2: Multi-combination of evacuation routes and facilities
e3: Land use planning with the lowest risks as residential areas incorporated with building
regulations
e4: Evacuation system developed with disaster preparedness including management of buildings
and facilities
f1: Self Rescue First principle
f2: Disaster education including capacity development of individuals
g1: Hazard map for understanding hazard instance and for evacuation drills but not as
deterministic hazard assumptions
g2: Continuous and regular risk communication to aware possibilities of hazard exceeding the
hazard maps
h1: Adaptation to changing communitys conditions such as population, generation, lifestyles, risk
awareness and capacity of self-support activities
h2: Risk communication between aging population and new generation
h3: Risk communication between mature residents and new comers
i1: Local disaster management plans always revised based on the multiple damage scenarios
i2: Community DM capabilities enhancement through probabilistic hazard identification, disaster
education, evacuation drills, and construction of evacuation sites, buildings and evacuation routes
j1: Joint efforts of multiple local governments
j2: Central level agency to carry out reconstruction projects
k1: Handing down tradition of disaster experience and knowledge over generations
k2: Inducement of appropriate land use and restrictions, regulations on building structures in
combination with city development plans

A Target
Protection
Level
based on a
planned
and
designed
hazard

Mitigation
by mainly
Nonstructural
Measures

Protection
by mainly
Structural
Measures

Deterministic Approach

Hazard Level

Hazard Level

Minimizing Expected Losses concept,

based on probabilistic scenarios

Multiple
Scenarios
based on
probabilisti
c hazard
projection

Minimizing
Damages and
losses at
multiple
scenarios by
Seamless
Combination
of Structural
and Nonstructural
Measures,
and
Redundant
Measures

Probabilistic Approach

Dynamic DRR, the principle approach by Progressive

situation adaptation, Active risk communication and
Redundant Measures and operation