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Early Warning for Disaster Preparedness and Response in

Bangladesh

Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP II)

BANGLADESH
DISASTER CONTEXT

FLOOD

CYCLONE

DROUGHT

RIVER EROSION

LANDSLIDE

EARTHQUAKE

SALINITY INTRUSION

FIRE BREAKOUT

Context analysis:
Bangladesh, mostly by the virtue of its geophysical features, is a disaster prone
country which coupled with the global climate change poses a major threat for
its residents and their livelihoods.
Natural disasters have been a major problem faced by the country.
In the year 1988 or more recently the cyclone SIDR which affected almost nine
million people.
The geographical location is the main reason behind the different types and
frequency of the disasters; especially the natural features make it prone to
cyclones, tornadoes and storm surges.
Bangladesh has three main rivers flowing through which forms the largest
delta in the world, these rivers are the Ganges, the Meghna and the
Brahmaputra (GMB). The delta has flat territory with many other rivers
flowing through it, which along with the above three rivers bring a vast
amount of water and sediments .
This process of carrying sediments has been taking place since the Miocene
age and this in turn helped in the growth of the Bangladesh .

Context analysis: continue


Bangladesh is seismically active also because of the presence of quite a few
major and minor faults near the country .
In the last 100 years (that is since 1900) as many as 100 earthquakes, ranging
from moderate to high, has been reported in Bangladesh .
There are two joining points of two plates that is found in Bangladesh- in the
north is the Eurasia plate and the Indian plate; and in the eastern part of the
country lies the joining point of the Indian and Barmiz plate .
These areas are the geographic reason for the susceptibility of earthquake in
Bangladesh as near these areas there are some active fault zones . The
country is divided into three seismic zones where the third zone has the most
risk of seismic activity and zone-1 has the least .
Moreover there are some seismic fault lines that pass through or near
Bangladesh and pose a threat of possible earthquake in the country; some of
these are- Bogra fault, Sylhet fault, Dauki fault, Kopili fault and Jamuna fault

COUNTRY PROFILE
Ranks globally among the most climate vulnerable
nations
Fifth rank in the world risk index 2012
DROUGHT - Affects about 8.3 million of land.
FLASH FLOOD - Unpredictable, uncertain.
FLOOD - Inundates more areas, increases river erosion, breaches
embankments, damages infrastructures.

SALINITY INTRUSION - Spreading intrusion from 1.5 to 2.5 Mha


(2007). Projected displacement: 6-8 m by 2050
CYCLONE - Remain to be the deadliest and most destructive
hazard. It has recurring events, lingering aftermath, complex
recovery.
AND
CLIMATE CHANGE HAZARDS, EARTHQUAKES, FIRE
BREAKOUT, INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE ETC.

BANGLADESH SHIFTED THE PARADIGM FROM RESPONSE/RELIEF-ORIENTED


TO COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH AND RISK REDUCTION CULTURE SINCE MID 1980S

Bangladesh is a
flood prone
country because
of its typical
geographical
location and
being placed in
the delta formed
by the Ganges,
the Brahmaputra
and the Meghna
rivers

Bangladesh Setting

Common Hazards/Disasters in Bangladesh


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.

Flood, Flash Flood


Cyclone
Storm surge, Tidal surge
Tornado
Drought and desertification
River erosion
Earthquake
Arsenic Contamination
Pollution
Salinity
Water logging
Biological Bird flue, Viral Polio,
Diarrhoea, Anthrax, Bacterial,
water and airborne
13. Animal attacks
14. Pest attacks

15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Cold wave
Heat wave
Fog
Thunder storms
Lightening
Road, river and rail accident
Landslide
Land subsidence
Dust storm
Tsunami
Social conflict (riot, terrorism,
hijack, bombs)
26. Cyber attack
27. Financial crisis
28. Famine

CONTEXT OF VULNERABILITY

FAVOURABLE

UNFAVOURABLE

Complex geo-physical and environmental diversity

Deltaic landscape, 80% floodplain


Most density populated country (over 146 million)
High level of poverty (31.5%, HIES 2010)
Natural resources based
Victim to global Climate Change, most vulnerable country

Well established indigenous coping capacities


Strong sense of belonging and social cohesion
Vibrant NGO /CSOs/CBOs
GO-NGO/publicprivate partnership
Strong support from the development partners
Extensive safety nets

EVOLUTION OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN


BANGLADESH
70s

Response oriented disaster management:


1970 Gorkey Cyclone, 300,000 people killed
1972 Cyclone preparedness program established

80s 90s

Emerging DM approaches:
1987 -88 huge flood, FAP formulated
1991 cyclone, 138000 people killed, shifting from disaster response to
preparedness
1993 constitution of Disaster Management Bureau
1997 Drafting of standing order on disasters (SOD)
1998 prolonged flood

2000 +

Forward towards a comprehensive system including Risk Reduction


2000 Comprehensive Disaster Management program formulated and
launched in 2004
2005 Ministry of Food and Disaster Management renamed with new DM
vision
2006 Revised AoB for MOFDM
2010 Revised SOD, National Plan for Disaster Management
DM Policy and ACT drafted

EARLY WARNING
INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISM
AND CDMP SUPPORT

Indian Meghalaya Hill, worlds wettest region


Annual Rainfall: 12,000 mm = 12 meters!!

CDMP-II Supported Projects for BMD


SI
No.

Project Name

Project Duration with


Cost

"Strengtheining

of Bangladesh
meteorological Department's
(BMD) Early Warning Capacity"

Duration:

Development

and Pilot of
Weather Radio System for
Warning Dissemination to
Fishermen at Sea"

Duration:

Enhancement

Duration:

and Pilot
Application of Agro-Advisory
Expert System Bangladesh

Status

2011-2014,
Budget: 8,50,000 USD
1 Year,
Budget: 4,25,977.2 USD
(32864141 BDT)

1.5 years
Budget: 3,49,743 USD

BMD, CDMP-II

Mou Signed between CDMP-II &


BMD has been done
Sub-agreement between BMD &
RIMES has been done
Sites selection have been done

Climate Database Management system

CDMS Server

Participants receiving training on GIS system

View of Training room

Digital weather massage


display board

Main gate of BMD

Vew of training Class

Training participants

7.

Automatic Communication System at 35 outer stations through


EADGE Modem.
8. High speed internet connection installed BMD head quarter (HQ),
Storm Warning Center (SWC) and Main Meteorological Office
(MMO), Hazrat Shah Jalal International Airport, Dhaka.

9.

Up grading of H/W and Procurement & Distribution to Outer


Observatory Stations Completed.
Procurement (second Phase) & Distribution of Computer, UPS,
Printer, Cartridge, TV, Modem, Pen drive and other accessories
Completed.

What is Flood Forecasting, Warning and


Response System?
A system to change the behaviour of people and
agencies before and during floods to save lives,
and reduce damage and disruption
A system with the following integrated
components :
- Forecasting
- Interpretation
- Dissemination
- Response
- Review and Analysis

WATER
is great
opportunity
for
Bangladesh

and also threat


to living
condition and
development

RIVERS OF BANGLADESH
Brahmaputra/Jamuna
Qmax.=98,000m3/sec
Qmin. =4,000 m3/sec
WLmax.=20.37m
WLmin.=12.95m

snow melt & rain fed river

starts rising in March/April


& usually attains a peak in
June. Another peak in
July/August

Meghna
Ganges
Qmaxm. =78,000 m3/sec
Qminm. = 700 m3/sec
WLmax.=15.19m
India
min.
WL =7.44m
snow melt & rain fed river
starts rising in June/July
and attains the annual
flood peak in late August
or early September

(Lower Meghna
Qmaxm. =180,000 m3/sec
Qminm. = 4,000 m3/sec
WLmax.=7.33m
WLmin.=1.97m
primarily a rain
fed river

27

Annual Average Rainfall: 2300


mm

Intensity is least in the North


West :
about 1500
mm

Intensity is highest in North


East : about 5000 mm

Monsoon (May to October)


rainfall accumulation 70
to 80 % of the annual

Cherapunji (in INDIA)


Worlds highest rainfall

Bangladesh identified as the top


most vulnerable countries to
climate change condition
With huge population, 150 million
(about 1100 person/sq-km)
About 50% of the country is
within 6-7 m of MSL.
Max 68% of the country is
flooded in 1998.
25 to 30% of the area is
inundated during normal flood
Comparatively flat and
low topography

Total population - country descending form left to right

Types of Flooding
Monsoon floods from the major rivers

Overbank spills from major rivers and their


distributaries cause the most extensive damages

Flash floods in the eastern and northern areas

Sharp rise followed by a rapid recession


Floods due to storm surge in the coastal area

Generated by cyclones cause floods in coastal zones

Local floods due to high intensity rainfalls

High rainfall of long duration

Flooded Area during 1954 to 2013


UN mission, known as
Krug Mission fielded

BWDB formed
FFWC established

1998 is the
most sever
flood

EPWAPDA Started with


projects to save CROPS

32

Flood (or water) Management Approaches


Structural
Flood Control, Drainage and Irrigation projects
Coastal embankment
Dredging/de-siltation to increase conveyance
Riverbank Protection
Accelerated Land Reclamation

Salinity protection
Surface water retention (including rain water)

Non-structural
Flood and drought forecasting and Warning
Erosion Prediction (planned)
Hydrological data collection and survey
Capacity development

Completed BWDB Structures: up to June, 2013

With all these interventions


85 million PEOPLE and 15
million HOUSEHOLDS are
protected from average floods

and salinity from sea

Projects Completed:
751 Nos
Total Embankment: 10, 405 km
Coastal Embankment: 4,571 Km
Other Embankment: 5,834 Km
Irrigation Canal : 5,175 Km
Drainage Channel : 4,245 Km
Hydraulic Structure: 14,287 Nos
Barrage
:
4 Nos
Bridge and Culvert : 5,630 Nos

Road (incl. semi-pacca): 1,041 Km


1951-1960

1981-1990

1961-1970

1991-2000

1971-1980

2001-2010

Bank Revetment :
Spur/Groyene
:

622 Km
220 Nos

Food grain production from


Flood Control, Drainage and Irrigation
(FCDI) system of the BWDB
Overall trend is increasing

Thus contribute to;


maintain FOOD SECURITY
create JOB specially the rural population
poverty reduction

Non Structural Measures


Flood Forecasting and Warning
Services

Flood Forecasting & Warning Activities


Data Collection

Preparation

Output

Data collection and feed to


computer MANUAL
Field Observation
Water Level
Rainfall

Water Level
from 85
stations
85x5=425
Rainfall 56
stations, daily
basis
06:00 to 09:00 hrs

FFWC
Office

Other Sources
BMD
Satellite image
Web-site
Indian data

Analysis
& Quality
check
08:30 to 10:30 hrs

Feed to
computer

Error
check

Model
Run

Result
consistency
check
10:30 to 11:00 hrs

Flood
Bulletin
Preparation

Rainfall
Surface
Map

Flood
Inundation
Map

11:00 to 12:00 hrs

Dissemination
Dissemination
Through
Hard copy
E-mail
Fax
Phone
Web-site
SMS
IVR-mobile
Distributed to
Policy makers
Disaster
managers (GO
& NGO)
Media
Others
11:30 to --------

Flood Forecasting & Warning Step by Step


2012

2009

Strengthening of
FFWC with CDMPII support

54 points on 29 rivers
5-days

Expansion of area
coverage

38 points on 21 rivers
3-days

1998 & 2007 two big FLOODS


1996

Super Model

30 points
2-days

1992

16
points

Model based Flood


Forecast

1-day

1987-88 two big FLOODS


1972 FFWC established
Monitoring & few
hours forecast
0

Lead time in days

River

38 Flood Forecast points

Atrai

Jamuna

Station

River

Station

Sariakandi

Dharala

Kurigram

Station

Mohadevpur

Turag

Mirpur

Buriganga

Noagaon

Dhaka(South)
Dhaka(West)

Chakrahimpur

Balu

Demra

Bogra

Lakhya

Narayangonj

Karatoya
Teesta

Kaunia

Brahmaputra

Chilmari

Jamuna

River

River

Atrai
Little Jamuna

Flood Forecast points 16 nos


is being added in 2013 & 2014

Station

Rajshahi
Ganges

Harding Bridge

Bahadurabad

Talbaria

Kazipur

Goallondo

Serajgonj

Padma

Bhagyakul

Porabari

Mawa

Aricha

Gorai Rl
Bridge

Gorai

Old
Brahmaputra

Jamalpur
Mymensingh

Kamarkhali

Bangshi

Nayerhat

Sylhet
Surma

Jagir

Porabari

Lakhya

Lakhpur

Mathura

Meghna

Narsingdi

Baulai

Khaliajuri

Mohanonda

C.Nwabgonj

Kaliganga

Taraghat

Old Surma

Derai

Ghagot

Gaibandha

Tongi Khal

Tongi

Kalni

Markuli

Atrai

Cankhair

Manu

Moulvibazar

Hurasagar

Baghabari

Dhaleswari

Elasin Ghat

Padma

Sureswar

Dhaleswari

Kalagacia

Kushyara

Sunamgonj
Sheola
Bhairab Bazar

Meghna

Baidder Bazar
Meghna Bridge

21
29 rivers 38
54 stations
After
Upto 2012
2014

Flood Forecasting Process in Bangladesh


R
e
a
l
T
i
m
e D a t a

Rainfall

Indian Data
WMO
JRC
WARPO

Riv er stage

Internet

wireless communication

Telemetry/Data box / Voice

Di s s em i na ti o n
to the publ i c
Radio

BMD
Weather forecast
Synoptic charts
Modem
SPARRSO
Sattelite images

Boundary estimation
Rainfal,
Water level

water level
flood extent
maps

F F W C R a d i o To wer

Data Entry & Processing

Modelling & Mapping

GIS data layers


FFWC Satellite dish

thana
inundation
maps

Television

Di s s em i na ti o n
to va ri o us a g enci es

Fax Modem

24, 48, 72 hr
forecasts

manual entry
via modem

Telephone

Fax

Bulletine

Community based signaling CDMP I

Effective use of
Existing Radar Data
Collection System

New Doppler Radar in


Moulvibazar (JICA
fund)

Covers most part of


Meghna basin
Calibration of RADAR
against ground measured
data is needed
Digital form of data

What are the new areas can be covered?


Community Level Flood Forecasting
Increase of Lead-time for effective planning of Flood
and Disaster Management
- Evacuation and/or Flood Cooping Operation
- Operation of Key and Valuable Infrastructure,
- Operation of Transportation System (Road/Rly/Ferry)
- Earlier Harvest of Crops
- Social and Economic Activities
Flash Flood Forecasting for North East Region
Extend the Flood Forecasting in the SW Region
Expert system for atomization of FFC System

Recommendations
Data collection System needs to be updated(intensity, frequency,
mode of collection & transmission)

Arrangement of additional further upstream data ( rainfall, water


level and channel configuration ) for increased lead time of forecast
For realistic flood inundation map high resolution Digital
Elevation Model (DEM) and GIS at local levels are very
much essential
Dissemination and understanding of warning message needs
further attention
Quantitative rainfall forecasts can make flash flood
forecasts effective
Timely dissemination of warnings to end users can be
achieved through internet net work up to Upazilla level
Cont.

COMMUNITY BASED
EARLY WARNING
DISSEMINATION

Cyclone Preparedness Program(CPP)


was established after the severe cyclonic storm
that happened in 1970 by the then League of Red
Cross & Red Crescent Society With the request of
UN general assembly.
League of Red Cross & Red Crescent Society
decided to withdraw the field level programme and
communicated with request to the Government to
take the responsibility of CPP In 1973.
Realizing the importance and as it is the
responsibility of Government to save the peoples
and their wealth in the coastal area during disaster.
Government took the responsibility of CPP by a
meeting held on 4th may 1973 & the decision of the
meeting was approved.

Present Structure of CPP-: Officers & Staffs : 203, Total Volunteer : 49500,
Male :33000, Female :16500, Unit : 3300, Union : 321, Upazila : 37, Zone : 07
CPP Head
Office
Dhaka

Zonal office, District level , No-07

Upazila Office, Upazila Level, No37


Union Office, Union Level, No-321
Unit3300

Village / Ward

2-sq.-km,
2-3
Thousand
People

Unit Committee15
Warning
Group-3

Shelter
Group-3

Warning Volunteer (M)


Addi. Warning Volunteer (M)
Addi. Warning Volunteer (F)

Rescue
Group-3

Rescue Volunteer (M)


Addi. Rescue Volunteer (M)
Addi. Rescue Volunteer (F)

First aid
Group-3

Relief
Group-3
Relief Volunteer (M)
Addi. Relief Volunteer (M)
Addi. Relief Volunteer (F)

Shelter Volunteer (M)

First aid Volunteer (M)

Addi. Shelter Volunteer (M)

Addi. First aid Volunteer (M)

Addi. Shelter Volunteer (F)

Addi. First aid Volunteer (F)

Mobile Technology Used in DRR


DMIC Activity

Cyclone Test-1 land fall


Chittagong-Teknaf coast.
DMCs in these area are
instructed to send SoS
within 24 hours and D
form within 72 hours

Cell Broadcasting System

DIAL 10941 FROM


MOBILE except citycel & Warid

Searching
Disaster
Information

WEATHER

SEA PORT

FLOOD WARNING

PRESS BUTTON

BMD

64 DISTRICTS AND
310 UPAZILLA

FFWC

HF/VHF

13 GOVERNMENT
AGENCIES

Volunteers

NGO
INGO

Community

Products/Services

Cell Broadcasting (CB)


Piloting of early warning dissemination in
flood prone Sirajganj and cyclone prone
Coxs Bazar through Cell Broadcasting (CB)
has been Successful.

IVR (Interactive Voice Response)


Initiative have been taken to weather, flood
forecasting and early warning for river port
through IVR. The Service is available through
all mobile subscribers. IVR Hot Line 10941

B
C

SMS
SMS service to disseminate disaster
early warning during and after disaster
instruction will be circulated to officials
of relevant disaster management.

Tools Used for mapping


GIS Setup

Software ArcGIS/ ENVI


Databases Different layers including administrative boundaries, River, Sea,
School, shelter etc.
Administrative District Map Upazila/Union/ Natural (River)
Hazard Map Flood, Cyclone, Salinity, Response Map

Community are in action after receive


the early warning

THANKS ALL

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