Sie sind auf Seite 1von 37

It takes a village to protect a child

PDLS

Personal Doppler Locating System


A business )lan

!"#$%&' &#)&*+' +"*,*)'*$ -./


012) 341*),5.

6789:;<9=88= This contact info is


>7;9?:89=8>: obsolete. email
6789@><9@=@7 A2B abmadw@gmail.com
2-CDE#"1$F,'$F&#C
! G#+."4HI' @==@J 0K3

L#" 4)A#"C2'4#) #)1.J )#' 2 ,#14&4'2'4#)F

MI4, +12) 2)$ 'I* 4)'*)'4#), 'I*"*#A 2"* $*$4&2'*$ '# C. !2"*)',J N%""2.
2)$ 0))2 341*),5.J E4'I 'I2)5, A#" their ,%++#"'F
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

>BC$,
!" $%&'()*+& ,(--./0

123, The recent publicity surrounding child abductions has created an emerging market
for personal geolocation products and services. People want to protect their
1ersonal children. Provide them with an affordable, reliable product that works, and such a
2oppler venture will undoubtedly succeed.

3ocating The first products to be introduced for child tracking are GPS based - products that
are expensive to own and operate due to their reliance on common carrier two-way
,ystem paging networks - a choice that marks a major strategic error on the part of these
companies, and opens the door for a competitive venture to capitalize on this
glaring mistake.

This report will explain how an astute venture employing the more mature and
cost-effective Pseudo-Doppler Direction Finding (PDDF) technology can dominate
the geolocation product sector. A smaller, less expensive device can be:
!45(6)/0 7''.6*74.880
).9&6 . :/74; )(/4 1. given away or sold very inexpensively
:<&4 &4)&/*4; .4 2. distributed through municipal agencies and community organizations
&-&/;*4; -./9&) = (Schools, police departments, religious institutions and day-care facilities)
>&+&/ <.6 )<*6 ?&&4 3. strategically evangelized through a cooperative marketing arrangement
-7/& )/(& )<.4 *4 )<& with the above organizations, which allows for revenue sharing of the
recurring subscription fees
'.6& .) <.45"
4. incrementally grown into other municipal and government applications of a
more professional bent (Law Enforcement, Court Supervision)
The author is available for
further inquiries and to This venture seeks $2.5 Million in discrete phases explained in the financial
make presentations appendices. The working numbers are based upon a 77 market capture for
concerning this business communities hosting 40K child rearing families. Furthermore, our capture formula
plan. bases revenue figures on a modest 25% initial enrollment rate after seeding each
market with 20k free PDLS devices, to be distributed via the aforementioned
cooperative municipal marketing model. The following table summarizes the market
thus:1
18&.6& '74).')@ Item Costs/Revenue

Alan Wilensky Market #1 - 20k PDLS Wearable ($500,000.00)


Devices2
351 Pleasant St.
#329 Market #1 - 25 PDDF Remote ($500,000.00)
Packages3
Northampton, MA 01060
One market yearly revenue from 10k $1,200,000.00
617-839-0770 Personal Locator Placement
617-249-2021 A.% 2nd year growth to 65% of 20K locator $1,560,000.00
abm@world.std.com subscriptions (13k)4
2 Yr.Total $1,760,000.00
77 markets on plan (2.1 markets $135,520,000.00
recruited per mo.- 36 months elapsed)
Subtractions for Operations and $27,104,000.00
overhead (20%)
End Y3 $108,416,000.00

1
A full Financial work-up with R&D NRE is located in the appendices
2
Initial PDLS R&D outlay will result in first run of 50K units
3
Results in first 100 PDDF remote packages
4
This still only represents less than 33% of the 40k market- of course, some families have more than
one child
3
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

!!" C&'<4787;0 B+&/+*&:

A new industry has launched and erred - not due to unforeseen market forces, but due to poor choices
and uninformed, unimaginative thinking.

The art of geolocation, finding and tracking the position of a person or object, is a mature science. HFDF
(High Frequency Direction Finding) was invented by the British during WWII. Terrestrial Radio Direction
Finding stations were deployed about the Atlantic rim in order to fix the position of German U-boats. It was,
along with radar, one of the innovations that won the war for the Allies.

The Pseudo-Doppler Direction finding principal (PDDF) was the most important part of the HFDF system.
PDDF replaced the antenna rotating mechanisms predating HFDF. This made it possible to fix
the position of multiple signal sources virtually instantaneously.

Although the recently introduced GPS system has come to dominate self-position-fixing, PDDF is still used
by the military and civil authorities to find and hunt down roving transmitters. GPS is, of course, only
usable in applications where the device is voluntarily employed, or surreptitiously placed - whereas PDDF
must be used to track radio emitters employed by any and all actors.

The introduction of GPS was a boon for the navigation and weapons targeting industry, as it made the
need for terrestrial PDDF stations unnecessary1. By returning GPS data from the tracking asset via radio
telemetry, location is provided from the source. GPS has created a worldwide market for self orienteering
in recreational, maritime safety, and mobile asset security applications.

One should immediately conclude that GPS is the preferred platform for the newly emerging market of
personal geolocation services. Finding lost pets and children is an obvious market corollary to stolen
vehicle tracking and maritime distress signaling. However, this assumption is wrong. Actually, the most
popular and cost effective stolen vehicle locator is not GPS based, it is a PDDF system called Lojack. The
maritime safety and distress system has recently adopted GPS for some classes of commercial craft, but
has kept Doppler based EPRB satellite location services for reasons of end-user cost considerations.

PDDF is not dead2. In fact, for the location and tracking of missing persons and pets, it is a more cost
effective and clever application of technology for personal geolocation services. There are yet other
lucrative markets opening for cost effective personal geolocation products.

This report will clearly show that the cost-sensitive market for consumer geolocation services is better
served by the PDDF method, and that the choice of GPS for these products and services has created
needlessly expensive, power-hungry, and unwieldy devices.

C<& .()<7/ D76*)6 )<.) 6&/+*4; )<*6 &-&/;*4; -./9&) :*)< 122E )&'<4787;0 :*88 /&6(8) *4 .AA7/5.?8&
.45 &AA*'*&4) D&/674.8 87'.)*74 D/75(')6 )<.) '.4 ?& :*5&80 5&D870&5 *4 . +./*&)0 7A '76) 6&46*)*+&
.DD8*'.)*746"

1
Loran and Omega, terrestrial TOA systems, are not based on PDDF, and are more akin to an earthbound GPS system. Many
Loran C facilities have been decommissioned since the inception of GPS.
2
See author’s monograph, ‘Personal Geo-location Services Vendors Exhibit a Stunning Lack of Imagination”. Appendix.

4
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

!!!"F?7() )<& F()<7/


Alan Wilensky is a technology sector product analyst. A service executive for 20 years and the inventor of
the TekDisc IETM format standard, Mr. Wilensky previously held the position of GM at Vicom Multimedia’s
prestigious Interactive Workplace division, as Sr. Product Analyst for EDMS Systems architecture at e-doc
Architects, and as Senior Consultant of the e-publishing business group at Sencore Electronic Publishing.

!G"C<& H7.5 3&66 C/.+&8&5 *6 . I*;<)0 J775 H7.5K *A 1&/674.8 J&787'.)*74 *6 )<& H7.5 07( ./&
H*5*4;

The PDDF vs. GPS battle-lines are drawn through two critical waypoints: Device and Usage costs.

Theirs (GPS) Ours (PDDF)


Z>==F== V ;?F== V ;?F== C#F L"** (#" &I*2+ YZ>=F==)J =F=V <F<? C#F
K*C2)$ W#&2'4#) 011#'C*)' G#)'4)%#, %+$2'*, D )V& 9
T)'*""#H2'* #)1. RST U#%)$2". 01*"', 0%'#C2'*$
Q# 0++14&2'4#) O+*&4A4& O*),#", !"#+"4*'2". N4&"#9O*),#",P 2$$, #)1. +*))4*, '#
CA"HF

How do the two technologies, GPS and PDDF, seem to compete for the likelihood of reaching the 1M
device/subscriber goal? Let us look at today’s market as it stands with current GPS based child locators,
just starting to enter the market:
F" L<&/&*A0 J1, M*5 37'.)7/ = NOPPQ5&+*'& = RSQ.')*+.)*74 = TRP=SPQ-74)< A&& = 7+&/ (6.;&
'<./;&6 .DD80.

This is one of several GPS devices soon to hit the market. The product/service contains the three
ingredients essential to any consumer geolocation application:
1. A means of fixing location; in this case a GPS module
2. A data transmission medium to convey the location coordinates to the reporting application - in
this case a two-way PCS paging module
3. A back end-application used for receiving location reports via some type of wired or wireless
medium - the web, IVR, pagers, etc. The back end application also serves for billing and
subscriber management.

Analysis: Ignoring for a moment the technology and feature set of the competing systems, we can see that a
family with 3 children will incur a $1200 + 110 =1310.00 outlay at the outset of subscribing to the Whereify
service, in addition to a stiff monthly fee of up to $49.00/month plus overage charges per device.

If readers of this business plan believe such a pricing model will succeed in all but the most affluent families,
please, pinch me. Even families of moderate income, with one or two children will be hard pressed to employ
such a device.

Will time and volume soften the costs of GPS-based systems such as this? Current GPS devices used for
vehicle surveillance tracking cost $1100-1600.00, depending on whether the device includes telemetry via
two-way paging or other means, or totally omits telemetry in favor of having the device removed from the
vehicle for data download. Handheld GPS devices for orienteering have bottomed at around $199.00 - sale
prices will sometimes cause artificial price deflation of loss leader GPS devices for as little as 169.00. These
aforementioned devices do not include data telemetry, and are much larger than what is required for
personal geolocation.

5
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

Indeed the inclusion of a PCS two-way paging module, GPS receiver, and the electric wrist locking
mechanism, all in a device engineered for compactness (though still quite large and conspicuous), may
already be selling at a loss in order to culture subscriber fees.

Are the subscriber and usage fees likely to moderate? No, the fees listed by Whereify precisely mirror
two-way paging fees listed by the leading paging networks. Obviously, using these wireless common carrier
networks for returning GPS location data to Mom and Dad will be expensive, and not likely to moderate
soon, as these rates have remained stable in the mainstream paging market.

Although there are other deficiencies in the current crop of GPS geolocator devices regarding functionality,
we will address that issue later in this report. However the author will say this: at the highest subscription fee
of 49.00/mo., Whereify offers 80 location demand updates during your 30 day billing cycle; that equals 2.6
locations updates per device/day. You must interrogate the device. After using the 80 demand locates, you
pay a per-use fee.

Is this enough for $50? Or shouldn’t parents who pay these fees expect to get continuos location updates
included in their plan? And, what good is demand location if your child is really abducted....are one’s psychic
abilities to be tested in order to move oneself to query the device?

This is a very expensive and poorly thought out system. Furthermore, systems such as Whereify which rely
on the PCS paging network will never adopt an unlimited use subscriber model. Will such systems reach 1M
units across a broad economic base? The author’s opinion is a resounding, NOT.

And now for something completely different:

U" C<& 122E 606)&-: $0.0-25.00 device1 - 0.0/activation - 9.95/month subscriber fee continuos
location updates

The PDDF locator will have all of the central functionality needed for personal and emergency
geolocation, improving in every way upon the GPS based devices.

1. Location fixing - a terrestrial locator system fixes the position of the digitally encoded device
2. Return of data - device identity and location data are returned via leased, low-bandwidth facilities
3. Back-End - Subscribers enroll and may monitor unlimited position updates, set out of bounds
conditions for automated alerting (no demand query needed), and pay for monthly billing.

Analysis: As a very mature and evolved technology, PDDF has the edge concerning end user costs. Let us
examine the device in detail:

The PDDF personal geolocator is a one-way transmitting device analogous to the Doppler Tracking collars
used in wildlife management, and somewhat similar to the Lojack device used for automobile recovery. The
main difference in technical architecture is as follows:

1. Wildlife DDF collars are usually CW (continuos wave) devices. The least demanding DDF
applications are CW based, as we usually don’t care who picks up the tracking signal. The
personal PDLS device under consideration in this monograph is more sophisticated; by using a
pseudo-random slotted transmit cycle and slow-frequency hopping transmitter, these PDLS
devices make it very difficult for third parties to track a device wearing user.
2. In regards to the Lojack system, which uses mobile DDF receivers to track stolen vehicles: The
personal PDLS unit is non-demand, meaning it transmits an ID burst once every minute or so.
The Lojack device is demand triggered when the vehicle is reported stolen. Otherwise the

1
Cooperative marketing partner may charge modest fee of $25-50

6
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

technology is essentially the same, with the added caveat that the PDDF device relies on a
network of terrestrial antenna receiving masts.1

Compared to a GPS personal geolocator, the PDLS device is much smaller and more energy efficient. As a
one-way transmitting device, it can be fabricated with Flex-chip-on-board manufacturing techniques.
Ultimately, contract manufacturing costs could reach <10.00/device as quantities reach 500k devices. The
implications from a marketing standpoint are enormous; such devices could be blister packed by the
thousands with enrollment instructions, and dropped off to participating municipalities, police departments,
schools, religious institutions, etc.

These institutions will supply the devices at no-charge, or for a nominal fee. A free 30-day activation would
be included as part of the program. If the new prospective subscriber does not wish to continue, it is not
necessary to return the device due to its low cost. Rather, they may pass it along to a friend, throw it in a
drawer for future use, or drop it in a mailbox for return to the Corporation, like a motel key. Such an open,
no-risk cooperative marketing model could never be attained by devices such as Whereify at $400, and
+$35.00 average per month.

The PDLS device will provide unlimited, continuos location updates for a flat fee of $9.95/month. The very
low bandwidth location data is returned from the terrestrial receiver network via low-cost, 56k digital, ISDN,
or voice grade leased lines. Hundreds of thousands of locators in a given community can be serviced by a
few dozen DDF locator receiving masts. For information on siting DDF receiver masts and modules, see
section (C).

And there are yet further product technical refinements that will never be employed by GPS devices, that can
be easily added to the PDLS devices. These ‘Micro-Sensor’ features are the author’s proprietary design, and
are the most exciting part of the PDLS system application as a whole. The application of these micro-sensors
adds only pennies to the overall device manufacturing costs, and provide critical lifesaving data which will be
used by law enforcement to save PDLS device wearers.

Smaller, cheaper, more battery life, better applications, and less costly to operate on a continuing basis than
GPS.....why is no commercial venture doing this as of yet? - Or...has GPS so clouded the mindset of
otherwise sharp high technology entrepreneurs that they simply cannot envision the use of anything else,
despite the inherent advantages of a more mature and economical technology?

The author has no answer other than the following:

V" E&./ 7A F4)&44.6 W

Does the use of GPS devices with PCS telemetry data back-haul obviate the need for antennas?
Absolutely not. The thousands of PCS cell/paging antennas are most certainly an integral part of
the GPS personal geolocator products. It is the end-user who subsidizes the existing PCS network
by paying high subscription fees of 25-49/month. This is a big bill for a family wishing to protect
two or more children. This is to say nothing of the outlay of hundreds of dollars for the device!

The simple analysis of usage cost devolves upon the fact that since GPS geolocation devices are
based on existing PCS paging networks, a device can be manufactured under contract and be
immediately deployed with no further infrastructure build-out. It’s great for the new geolocation
company, believing as they do that $400 devices and high network fees will capture the market.

People want to protect their children, right?

The PDDF model exchanges a modest effort (in placing a handful of non-radiating antenna masts
throughout the coverage area) for much lower device and usage costs. On a market by market

1
Lojack uses mobile direction finding units installed in police cruisers. This makes eminent sense, as the police are the point of
recovery.

7
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

basis, this means that as the venture enters each new market, an installation timeline will precede
the ‘turn-up’ of the system. The following should be noted:
1. Distribution of the PDLS device can be concurrent with the PDDF receiver mast placement.
Some towns only require 6 or so masts in flat areas, as in the Midwest.
2. Non-radiating, non-transmiting antennas are not regulated in the same way as PCS, cell, or
commercial radio transmitting masts. The only requirement is the property owner’s permission,
and certain zoning laws, depending on community.
3. The PDDF remote receiver and mast are compact, auto-configuring, reliable (very low power),
and need only a leased data line and power to operate.
4. Even a large system comprising 20-50 receiver sites can be erected in 30-60days.
5. Residential and business property owners can be approached to host the PDDF receiver on their
home or business rooftop or attic. In exchange, the corporation will give them a fair rental fee, or
free use of a number of PDLS devices to use for as long as they host the receiver.
6. With embedded remote diagnostics and thoughtful integration, these compact remote receivers
and masts are no more daunting to install and operate than a commercial radio, television, or
similar device. The author foresees that most of these systems will be deployed by the
municipalities participating in our cooperative marketing programs.
7. There are any number of PDDF equipment vendors who are anxious to answer the GPS threat
they have had to contend with since its inception. These vendors will work with us to create
remote PDDF receivers to our specifications. Eventually, these remote units will fall to <5,000
each.
8. Even if one concedes that the placement of PDDF masts is an inconvenience, it simply cannot be
stated that this makes the venture impossible or jeopardizes the business model. By adopting this
architecture, and by not relying upon wireless common carrier networks, our PDDF system offers
a much less expensive device for the subscriber, much lower ongoing fees, and enhanced
features and performance.
9. And, finally, even in urban areas, the placement of antenna sites is an evolved market with third
party entities brokering the rental of such rooftop mast locations. There are rooftop siting
companies that handle nationwide base station placement for PCS, commercial and public
service two-way radio, paging, and digital cellular services.

There is really no justification for the position that the PDDF remote mast placement
requirements disqualify this as a competitive venture.
G" X"S I*88*74 5788./6 . -74)< :*)<*4 ):7 0&./6 Y J&))*4; )7 B4& I*88*74 123, Z4*)6"""

The overriding goal for any new venture is to achieve market penetration and profitability. A personal
geolocation venture wishing to reach the 1 million device mark will need to capture ten metropolitan
markets with a 100,000 subscriber potential, or 20 mid-metro markets with 50,000 subscribers, or a
combination thereof. This is a market model used by early wireless technology entrants, and has held up
well over the years. If the venture can get to profitability by or before the 1M device/subscriber market,
then a robust revenue base and track record is established for further financing or IPO leading to national
and worldwide market viability.

Scenario: You are a parent. Sharing the reasonable fear generated by the recent horrific events portrayed
in the media, you are thinking of trying one of the new GPS child locators. Advertisements have been
cropping up in parenting magazines, CNN has run a piece on Whereify. But, whoaE Four hundred
bucks...thirty five to activate, and thirty five per month for the mid-level plan including only thirty location
queriesI You have four little ones under 13 years old...that’s....$1600.00 P 140.00 P 140/month...yikes
that’s expensiveE

But now your oldest boy, 13, comes home and shows you the following:

8
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

It is a colorful, shrink-wrapped package about 5x7”. Inside is a ....free(E) wrist or ankle worn band with a
very slim set of plastic squares bonded to the band. The whole thing weighs a few ounces. The package
says: ‘This is your free Child locator. It is yours to keep. If you wish to activate it, go to www.PDLS.com or
call 1-800-339-PDLS, and use it free for 30 days. If, after 30 days you still wish to use the device, just
log-in with your credit card and pay 9.95 per month, or $99.00/year, and enjoy your new found peace of
mind.’ ‘If for any reason you do not wish to use the device, you may give it to a friend, have your child take
it back to the school, or keep it for later use. You may also drop it in any mailbox.’

IF you were a moderate income parent, which would you choose, even to test out? The $400 Whereify or
some such, or the FREE PDLS unit at 9.95/month?

I thought so....
F" [7: -.40 -./9&)6 57&6 *) ).9& )7 -.9& X"S I*88*74 J/766 H&+&4(& 5788./6 . -74)<Y

The prospective investor considering this business plan must think that the timeline to profitability
is a long haul. A medium sized market will have between 25-100k families with children. We break
down the logistics to our campaign as follows:

1. We assume markets with 40k families


2. We seed each market with 20k free locators
3. We assume that a modest 50% enrollment rate will ensue This is 10k enrolled locators per
market (an actual conservative 25% adoption)
4. At 9.95 (say ten) per month, this equals $100k/month - 1.2M/year
5. In a modest market let us overestimate the investment in 25 PDDF remotes @ $500k1 (later
systems will be (<100k).
6. Let’s also say we spent $25 each on the locators = $500k. We have now one million in the early
market, and there are 10k more locators being placed by schools, churches, etc.
7. The first year for that market breaks even with practically no advertising.
8. Y2 for that market could be grown to 13k devices (65%), equaling 130k/mo. Or 1.56M/yr.

After the first two or three markets, PDDF base installations will be only 10K, after ten markets, PDDF sites
will cost only ~5k. The locator device price can be driven down to <$10, if quantities of +500K can be
attained.

None of the above includes NRE, operations, and support. However the system needs very little intervention
once the locators are placed in market, and the back end system is running. Maintenance of PDDF receivers
may be contracted to a service company, who will merely pull and exchange the defective units.

B. So how many markets?

If a 20k placement results in a 65% use rate (13,000), we would need 77 midsize cities
and towns to attain 1 million device placements resulting in 10M/mo. or $120M/yr. Some markets
might support 100k users, and these are not necessarily big cities.

C. Other markets and applications

Child and pet location are hardly the only or best markets for personal geolocation services.
Municipalities, State, and Federal Governments would jump at the chance to use a low cost
locator if the infrastructure was in place.

With child location providing the subsidy, so to speak, the venture has a wide open field for more

1
Early PDDF remote sites will cost 20k inclusive of installation labor - this will fall to 5k by the 50th site

9
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

grown-up applications:

1. Court ordered use

Sex offenders, restraining orders of protection, and house arrests. There is no court in this
country that would use a $400 device. The current ankle band monitoring doe not provide
location services. Our venture could easily take over that niche less expensively, and offer more
functionality than third party monitoring systems.

2. Mental Health

Mental health facilities and nursing homes. Not only as anti-elopement devices, but as
supervisory options for residential patients. The technology might be integrated with medical
monitoring.

3. Law Enforcement/public service

Foot patrol tracking, vehicles. Don’t these guys have GPS? Actually, the newest public radio
systems have integrated GPS tracking of portable and mobile radios. These systems make up
about 3% of the current installed base. Adding GPS to older PSR systems is very costly.

The PDLS venture could offer attractive fleet and department pricing. It is a simple and elegant
solution for tracking public service human assets.

How much will these alternative markets add to the venture gross revenue? This is unknown. It is
possible that such applications will add a healthy increment to the revenue stream, or indeed, one
of the above applications might one day become a prime income generator, surpassing that of
child location.

G!">H$ = H\2 = J&))*4; )7 )<& A*/6) 606)&-"""

NRE R&D Costs Y1 Inclusive of labor


PDLS Wearable Device 1
$500,000.00
PDDF Remote Package2 $500,000.00
Back-end System3 $350,000.00
R&D tools, fixtures and $250,000.00
facilities
Total $1,600,000.00

How much of this iconoclastic system must be designed, how much is off-the-shelf?

There are three technical components to the system, and an operational organization. The following
describes the NRE for the technical subsystems.
F" 123, (6&/ 5&+*'&

The PDLS device is based upon well established vehicle locating beacons used by the
intelligence trade, the Lojack stolen vehicle recovery system, and wildlife tracking applications.

1
Initial PDLS R&D outlay will result in first run of 50K units
2
Results in first 100 PDDF remote packages
3
Out sourcing hosting and development may reduce by 30%

10
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

Unique to our application is the packaging and assembly of the product, the circuit configuration
for security, and the addition of special micro-sensors which makes our PDLS unit truly unique.

The R&D challenge is significant, but involves no new design discipline or technology. Prototyping
COB-Flex circuits for RF applications is a job for topnotch engineering talent. This is crucial. The
prototyping and testing process are one-shot events, with each revision needing a new build. The
upshot is that it is essential to avoid inexperienced engineers.

A block Diagram of the PDLS unit may be referenced in the appendix, but the following are design
highlights:

1. The class C RF power amplifier has variable power output for various alarm conditions.
2. The Oscillator/driver block has an eight bit input for freq. selection (10-50 ISM channel allocation).
3. The transmit enable line is driven by a timer and pseudo random number generator. This enables
the transmitter every 1-5 minutes, in a random slot conforming to that schedule. The resulting
schedule word is divided by a variable to select the TX freq.
4. The modulator encodes a 64 bit ID + ECC code carried on Manchester frame encoding. 8 bits are
reserved for special alarm condition messages such as panic pull ring 1, micro-sensors, tamper,
and low battery. The remaining 56 bits allows for millions of unique device ID’s.
5. Two proprietary micro-sensors are laser machined into the COB block or in a tandem block.
These sensors are of the author’s design, and are not disclosed in this report. The sensors
provide automatic sensing of an abduction condition. This sensor data is used in tandem with
on-line user setup data.
6. Unlike Whereify, with its bulky and complex electric locking mechanism, the PDLS uses a Kevlar
or Aramid fiber band with a cut-sensor channel running the length of the band. The lock is a
simple offset flat key with 1000’s of combinations.
7. The PDLS is small, light, will run for a year in normal use on lithium photo batteries2. It will be
water and shock proof.

It will take one highly skilled RF engineer, adept at COB flex packaging, 5-9 months to design, verify, and
test the PDLS. An FCC Type B certification and an allocation request order for operating frequency will need
to be approved. The contract manufacturing vendors who stand to profit handsomely from device production
can play a crucial role in bringing the product to market faster, better, and cheaper by providing engineering
expertise.

Y1Q3-4 will see a ready to deploy PDLS.

U" 122E H&-7)& H&'&*+&/ ,06)&-

Unlike the PDLS, the PDDF remote units are more or less off the shelf units with custom firmware.
The entire remote electronics unit is about the size of a four rack space 16” PC enclosure - very
compact.
The DDF mast and combiner unit are rooftop mounted, about 4’ tall, and the twelve element array
is circular, about 1.5 ft. In diameter3. The entire rooftop unit can be mounted in a fiberglass
radome color matched to the surroundings to look inconspicuous.

The following are major components of the PDDF:


1. Multi-element antenna array and combiner unit
2. PDDF Unit bearing resolver - attached to digital receiver audio output and combiner matrix

1
A finger pull ring is provided for panic alerts. Pulling the ring decreases the TX interval to 15 sec., and TX power to max (750MW)
2
If the pull ring is activated, increased TX power will reduce battery life by approx. 50%.
3
The total overall dimensions are somewhat dependent on the allocated operating frequencies; higher freq. = more compact
arrays

11
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

3. Digital receiver unit


4. Data communications module w/56k CSU
5. GPS with NEMA serial interface for self location (yes , we use GPS for our base units)
6. Electronic compass with serial interface for static heading (can be eliminated with proper setup
procedure)
7. UPS, PC controller, etc.

There are several vendors for PDDF systems and components. These range from hobby equipment vendors
to professional turnkey radio direction finding systems used by the FCC to hunt pirate transmitters. The
Military PDDF market comprises vendors specializing in precision terrestrial and mobile Doppler systems. In
short, there is a large catalog of COTS components and vendor support for engineering a cost effective
remote PDDF receiver package. This venture will refine COTS PDDF components and the system
integration thereof with several required improvements and modifications. An enumeration of these
refinements follows thus:

1. The Digital Multi-channel Receiver and DSP demodulator will be modified through firmware
programming to synchronize with the PDLS FH Preamble1.
2. The PDDF bearing resolver unit will need minor modifications to work cooperatively with a slow
hop FH system. These modifications also influence demodulator settling times and slew rates.
3. Each PDDF remote will have a hardware or firmware s/n voting mechanism. This improves the
chances of location fixing when LOB2 data from multiple PDDF sites is inconsistent due to
multipath.
4. Later versions of the PDDF remotes may optionally employ Signal TOA3; this is another piece of
data, like S/N voting, that may supplement LOB fixing data. TOA detection requires high stability
time standards and system wide synchronization of said standards. It can be a pricey addition to
a system that works fine with LOB and S/N voting. However, in high multipath environments, the
additional data can be helpful in narrowing the target location CEP.4
5. The PC controller will have software routines developed to decode the PDLS incoming data,
frame and format the outgoing message packages, and communicate with the back-end system
for routine and diagnostic tasks.

The PDDF remote package is self configuring; AC power and a voice grade or 56k data line are the only
resources required to enable the remote site. The rooftop antenna siting requires moderate installation skills
on par with that of garden variety commercial radio or satellite earth station practices. In short, there is no
new science or technology here, and the workforce necessary to effect installation in any market is readily
available by permanent hire or contract services.

The engineering of the PDDF package is an exercise in system integration and firmware programming.
Running the PDDF receiver system R&D concurrently with the PDLS device development will have working
prototypes in 4-6 months, and production units by Q4-6. The earliest deployed PDDF packages placed in the
first few markets may cost up to 20k each. Costs will decline sharply and very quickly in Q6, where the PDDF
system will become even smaller, and may be deployed for $5,000.00.

The author reasonably expects that PDDF equipment vendors5 will be eager to contribute engineering
expertise in the reasonable expectation that this venture will become a customer of some significance.

1
FH preamble is the handshake signal allowing the PDLS and the PDDF remote to hop in synch with each other
2
Line Of Bearing - this is a compass radial bearing line conveyed to the back-end GIS system. When combined with LOB data
from other PDDF sites, the location is fixed within an elliptical region of probability. Additional data from S/N voting, signal TOA, and
micro-sensors, further refines location data.
3
Time Of Arrival. The difference in TOA of signals received at various PDDF sites can be used to augment LOB data
4
Circular Error Probability - the finite and non-reducable error that limits the ultimate accuracy of any geolocator system, even GPS
5
Several PDDF equipment vendors have been very generous with their time in helping the author compile preliminary data

12
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

V" U.'9=&45 .5-*4*6)/.)*74K &='7--&/'&K .45 '8*&4) 6&/+*'&6

Thankfully, the e-commerce and database systems needed to run this operation have evolved
significantly in functionality and ease of deployment. Data from remote PDDF sites is collected
from a multi-channel CSU rack, and parsed to the GIS server. The GIS server application
integrates the incoming PDLS data streams with the persistent incoming connections from
subscriber web browsers. A Java Client on the subscriber end provides the PDLS ID, login
security, and option configuration. A billing module is accessed for payment. The following are
feature highlights of the back-end system:
1. An Alert Server integrates paging and IVR functions.
2. WXML is used to provide universal formatting for the Java clients on Web browsers and wireless
web appliances. XSLT is used to render the location data and alarm condition to various output
devices.
3. The back-end system can be configured on a market by market basis for revenue sharing and
cooperative marketing. Municipalities wishing to take a proactive role in distributing the PDLS
devices, and to site the PDDF remote receivers, can be granted a share of each subscription.

C<*6 8.6) *)&- '.447) ?& ;8766&5 7+&/" Time and again, in the early stages of communicating this plan to
the investment community, the question arises, “...how indeed can a significant portion of the country be
populated with PDDF remote receiving equipment?”

The answer lies in point #3: Communities wishing to play a proactive role in establishing a PDLS system
within their municipality gain the moral and political high-ground in protecting the children within their
constituency, and gain a profit incentive as well.

G!!" U(*85*4; B()@ C<& V77D&/.)*+& I./9&)*4; I75&8

While companies like Whereify are pushing a stone uphill in the guise of a $400.00 product, our venture
will be quietly pursuing cooperative marketing partnerships and building company administered markets.
The first PDLS systems will go live on-line on the heels of the competitor’s media campaign. Thus, the
timing of our venture capitalizes on the competition’s mass media consciousness raising, and answers
the consumer’s objection to high device prices and obscene service rates, with our venture’s free PDLS
device and low-cost, unlimited usage plan.

Indeed, while Mom and Dad have been reading about the various GPS locator products, and balking over
the costs, or deciding which of their progeny will wear the oversized Whereify device, and which will do
without - our venture will have the children coming home from school with free PDLS locators with a 30
day free trial subscription. How are we going to accomplish this?

13
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

F" I(4*'*D.8 I./9&) E7'(6&5 V77D&/.)*+& I./9&)*4; V.-D.*;4

It takes a village to protect a child.


This is the motto of our cooperative marketing campaign for outreach to municipalities.

Selection of likely markets will be driven by demographics. Qualifiers are population density of
families with children under 18 years, K-12 enrollment, and to a lesser extent, median income
levels. As stated previously, the venture will initially focus on communities with 25-40k families
with children fitting such a demographic. As the PDLS and PDDF components become less costly
to manufacture and install, due to economies of scale, the venture will consider smaller markets.

The venture will court institutions of influence to help market the PDLS devices and site the PDDF
remote packages. Revenue sharing will be offered to municipalities who wish to take a proactive
stance on device distribution through schools, police departments, and government offices. For
communities wishing a more passive involvement, the corporation will make the needed resources
available and oversee and administer the campaign.

A complete cooperative marketing materials and support package will be available to the
cooperative municipal marketing partners, including:
1. Complete market and product training by account representatives of the corporation
2. Collateral customized to the municipality’s identity
3. Engineering support for siting PDDF remotes
4. Event Coordination and display assets
5. Customer service and technical support for enrolled subscribers

U" H&+&4(& ,<./*4;

The back-end application for supervisory and administrative functions allows for system by system
revenue sharing. Further divisions can be made by agency or department via remote
administration via the Web.

The subscription revenue sharing model is automated and completely flexible. The split will vary
between standard bounds of 90-10% and 80-20%. For key markets with high population densities
- those deemed to be serious strategic market strongholds - the split can be custom configured for
more aggressive and progressive sharing arrangements.

V" I(4*'*D.8 B:4&/6<*D

A model may be posited for municipal ownership of a PDDF locator system. Such an arrangement
could be characterized in the following way:
1. The Municipality would purchase PDLS devices from the venture
2. Likewise, the municipality would own the PDDF remote equipment through purchase/lease
agreements
3. The venture would provide back-end billing, administration, and technical support; this would be
provided at a percentage of subscriber revenue.

It is important to note that the PDLS device will operates anywhere the system is installed and is not
dependent on market homing. Subscriber revenue is routed to the agency which placed the device.

14
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

G!!!" L*44*4; )<& 1&/674.8 J&787'.)*74 I./9&) -- Overcoming Barriers to Success

Business plan summaries typically end on an artificially high note. This plan has been composed with a
carefully thought-out strategy and unstinting, sober technical research to support the ultimate financial
conclusions herein.

To ignore the challenges and obstacles potentially posing a barrier to the venture’s success would be
disingenuous; therefore the author has collected and summarized, in Q&A format, some of the strategic
concerns posed by experienced institutional investors who have had early access to draft versions of this
plan:
F" V7-D&)*)*+& V74'&/46 = C&'<4787;0

The following are concerns expressed about the ultimate viability of PDDF technology vs. GPS
products:

1. V: What is the likelihood that GPS personal geolocation devices will fall to pricing levels
competitive with PDDFI What about service costsI

A: Volume speaks Volumes. If we look at Personal GPS devices sans telemetry (the type of
devices used to find your way on a camping trip), we see a product that is manufactured in the
-*88*746 of devices. Most of these devices are priced at an average of +$250. It must be stressed
that these are not personal geolocators with telemetry. The very least expensive personal GPS
devices have been sold as loss leaders for as little as $119.

The need to shrink the device and the inclusion of two-way data telemetry via wireless networks
greatly add to the cost of GPS personal geolocators. GPS in itself is a costly implementation for
receiving devices. VLSI chips used to process GPS data have remained expensive due to
fabrication licensing fees.

GPS geolocators relying on two-way wireless paging carriers are bound by the same economic
shackles as any other paging application. Two-way paging price plans have remained stable for
the last two years. A check of the Skytel and Cingular Web sites will verify that the paging plan
prices they retail are very similar to the GPS based Whereify plans for interrogating the device in
order to locate the wearer.

A quick glance at the engineering diagrams for the PDLS device tells even the technically
challenged that this is a much simpler and clever application. Whereas the GPS devices need to
build the costly precision engineering into their user worn devices, the PDLS systems use a
simple, non-precision personal device, and places the precision in the network of PDDF remote
receivers.

Location data coming from a GPS device via two-way paging places the burden of each message
on the common carrier’s network, which is expensive. Location data from the PDLS personal
device is a very low bandwidth, short message packet. Hundreds of thousands of such messages
can be carried over dial-up phone lines if needed, at a flat rate for all users.

Carrying this thin location data over an existing PCS paging network only succeeds in shifting the
messaging costs to the end-user, and requires a more expensive and complex device to boot.

The author believes that the only way to market saturation is for personal geolocation to be priced
at levels viewed to be affordable to families with two or more children (Device + Usage costs).

2. V: Doesn’t GPS allow the ubiquitous use of the device anywhere in the world, while the PDLS
needs to be in range of its terrestrial systemI

15
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

A: The GPS devices used for Personal geolocation and the return of data to a remote location
(mom and dad), need to avail themselves of some type of wireless network. As most if not all of
these new devices will be using PCS wireless data, they will only operate within the network
footprint of those carriers. If you look at the coverage maps of these carriers, you will see that
many do not offer coverage outside of urban, metro, mid-metro, and large suburban areas.

This actually confers another advantage on PDLS, as the venture can cater to otherwise affluent
western and Midwestern markets bypassed by PCS data.

3. V: Why do you state that PDLS devices can offer more creative and functional applications than
the Personal GPS geolocatorsI

A: Because our venture is not beholden to a PCS paging carrier, we can define messaging length
to suit our purposes. PCS paging bound ventures have maximum messaging parameters and
cost considerations.

Our first product will incorporate two micro sensors that can help authorities determine that an
abduction has actually taken place and that a life is in danger. Other embedded sensor applications
are possible, as we have more real estate to work with. This is because our PDLS device is
already very small, and has room to add a modest amount of additional hardware.

The GPS devices are crammed full. Whereify may add cell phone functionality...that will be
affordable on top of everything else!

4. V: The terrestrial locator network needed in each city sounds complex and expensive. Is it just
too muchII

A: We are not erecting large ground-station facilities. Imagine walking into a home or business
and placing a bread box with telephone and power connections in the attic. Home Satellite
installation companies do this thousands of times a week, for a much more demanding
application.

Remember, some markets (Open, Flat) only require a handful of PDDF sites. Urban markets
need more, but the technical requirements are the same. Research reliably indicates that these
PDDF sites will fall to $5k after the first year of operations, maybe sooner.

If placing antenna sites was that onerous, we would not have a cellular industry, paging, etc. And
the GPS personal geolocating products would not exist, either. The non-transmitting nature of the
PDDF equipment is also free from most laws and regulating agencies that oversee transmitting
equipment like cell, PCS, two-way radio, etc.

By the way, the personal PDLS device is an unlicensed ISM application.

U" BD&/.)*74.8 V74'&/46@

1. Q: Funneling all that PDLS data and billing all those subscribers sounds complex....

A: Actually, our back-end systems only route LOB data to the end-user’s web browser. And
Internet billing is an established field with a multitude of third party options. Also, as our usage
plan is flat rate, we have no per use accounting and deal with no outside carriers. The GPS
based geolocation services have to play nicely with the PCS paging carriers and have a usage
model to contend with. This is much more complex from a customer service basis.

16
PDLS
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

2. 3: How will you grow your national operations and service organizationC

A: Unless this venture can raise tens of millions, we are bound to a market-by market basis. Each
market we establish after the R&D is finished is a profit making market if our numbers hold.

Approximately ½ of the 2.5 million we are trying to raise is for R&D; but this technology
development budget includes production of the first deployable system. The second half of the
2.5 million is to fund operations and further build out.

There is no real increment in overhead per market build. The data operations center may only
need incremental upgrades (or service level agreements if contracted) and a few more tech
support staff perhaps every 10th market employed.

3. 3: How are you so sure that Municipalities will want to coop your system?

There are a number of marketing models to distribute the PDLS, and none of them need the help
of the city governments. However, the author has interviewed and surveyed a mixed bag of town
selectmen, police public affairs wonks, and corresponded with an anonymous assistant director
at the NIJ technology review board.

When shown the device pricing and service fees, all of these informally drafted surveyees were
impressed and expressed the view that this could be an effective item for cooperative marketing
participation by the municipalities.

Either you have faith in the market model or you don’t. The author encourages all readers of the
plan to conduct their own personal survey and have the subjects compare the Whereify posted
product prices with our venture’s proposed pricing.

4. Who are you, AlanC

I have been involved in the electronics trade as a technician, manager, trainer, and innovator. My
career harbors no privileged letters or degrees. Working from the ground up with a trade school
education, I went from working as a two-way radio repairman apprentice to become the General
Manager of a prestigious Interactive Technical Manual Production venture. This was at Vicom
Multimedia, where I invented the TekDisc multimedia service manual. It (TekDisc) is still the most
widely used interactive training and reference production tool for technical product service
markets, including the military. The technology used in the TeKDisc production system has been
licensed countless times.

I know the essence of emerging technologies, and recognition of this was an offer to come work
at the prestigious Aberdeen Group of Boston. Although I declined the offer (I was under existing
contract at the time), I was to be the first non-degreed staff analyst ever hired by this August
agency.

With this venture, I know that I am on the trail of good and sure game.....

17
Service Publications Interactive
Technology In-Focus

Personal Geo-Location Services Vendors Exhibit a Stunning Lack of Imagination


Alan Wilensky, Reporting Analyst

Executive Summary

Media focus on emotionally charged events often drives new products to market. In many cases, vertical
applications will sometimes be thrust into the consumer sector by a tragic occurrence or series of tragedies. Exam-
ples of the former are legion; automotive airbags, weather alert radios, and several types of personal and residen-
tial security products are all examples of events driving the birth of new products.

This year’s tragic rash of child abductions underscores the need for personal Geo-location services. Commercial
Geo-location products serve in a number of industries; many predate the availability of GPS. Some examples of
these services include truck and freight tracking, maritime distress signaling, and wildlife management. Many of
these services are GPS based, but several started as terrestrial-based systems built on the evolved Pseudo-
Doppler radio direction finding method (DDF).

The wholesale conversion of practically all geo-location applications to GPS has made tremendous sense, as GPS
obviates the need to build out terrestrial locator networks. It is incorrect to assume, however, that GPS is the best
solution to all Geo-Location problems.

This monograph examines the logic of today’s personal location services vendors. These vendors have taken the
position that GPS is the best and only way to serve the needs of families wishing to protect and keep track of their
children. The author will illustrate that, in fact, GPS comes off a poor second to the more mature Pseudo-Doppler
technology, not only in regard to functionality, but also in terms of affordability - not a small issue in consumer
product marketing.

Geo-Location Technology, a historical perspective

Geo-Location is a mature technology. First developed during World War II, HFDF (High-Frequency Direc-
tion Finding), was deployed to intercept and locate enemy naval forces. The great innovation of the time involved
the Pseudo-Doppler principal, which enabled the elimination of antenna rotating mechanisms and allowed near-
instantaneous position fixes of multiple targets. This technology was deployed by the military until its ultimate de-
mise following the introduction of GPS.

Many non-GPS based applications served in the past, and still serve us well. The Maritime Safety and Distress
system, although now based on GPS, still has an operating counterpart in Doppler based EPRB beacons used by
smaller commercial fishing and pleasure craft. The most popular stolen vehicle location system, Lojack, is not GPS
based - it is a pure distributed pseudo-Doppler system. These aforementioned are two examples of current appli-
cations illustrating that GPS, in defined circumstances, confers no particular advantages over the earlier DDF tech-
nology.

In the consumer realm, GPS has become almost commoditized in personal-portable devices for outdoor orienteer-
ing. Automotive applications are now considered almost common, if not ostentatious. Vehicle tracking has borne
out two parallel application categories: automotive security products encompassing GPS location services, and law
enforcement applications of vehicle tracking.

It is these last two applications that pique this analyst’s interest, as what makes these applications similar in mis-
sion makes their employment of GPS a no-brainer. These vehicular applications share an important requirement -
the need to return GPS location data to the end-user. This is most often accomplished by common-carrier net-
works, such as PCS data or two-way paging systems, or (in the case of deeply remote or seafaring applications)
Inmarsat or similar satellite data up-link transmission.

1
Service Publications Interactive
Technology In-Focus

The need for data return is, of course, not unique to GPS location services. Even terrestrial Geo-location needs
data back-haul. The difference is, of course, that GPS data is returned from the device, while DDF data is returned
from the network. Cost implications are enormous when the influence of GPS licensing fees are combined with
wireless common carrier fees. As we shall find a little further on in this paper, when end-user device cost is para-
mount, DDF beats GPS handily.

The cost of GPS devices for law-enforcement vehicle tracking has dropped significantly from a high of about
$9,500/device in the mid 1980’s, to around $1,600/device today. GPS tracking devices that only record vehicle
movement for download after the device is removed can cost up to $500 less than devices with integrated teleme-
try. Satellite EPRB Doppler beacons cost as little as $600. Maritime GPS emergency locators may cost from $900
for GPS with PCS/Cell telemetry (useful only in coastal areas), to as much as $10,000+ for high-seas MSDS sys-
tems with Inmarsat data up-link.

In sum, the need to return data from GPS location products is, in no small measure, a contributing factor to the end
device cost. This is to say nothing of recurring operation costs, subscription fees, and per-use charges. In applica-
tions where cost sensitivity is not hypercritical (law enforcement, maritime safety, etc.), GPS chip set licensing fees,
network telemetry charges, and per-use charges do not preclude deployment or market viability.

However, in consumer markets, where cost is king, the aggregate costs associated with GPS licensing and its at-
tendant data telemetry charges, prove GPS to be inferior to DDF.

Use Case: The Whereify Wireless Child Locator

The Whereify Locator for kids is a colorful, large, wrist-worn device the size of a Puritan Manacle. At a cur-
rent price of about $400, the device is not inexpensive, and neither are its service charges!. The device relies upon
two-way PCS paging to provide return data to web-based subscriber services. Parents use the web interface for
on-demand location interrogation.

Service charges range up to $49 per month. Depending on the chosen monthly plan, varying amounts of ‘includes’
are provided, but never more than eighty on-demand location queries. In all cases, once the included commands
are exhausted from the plan, per-use charges apply. Theoretically, this could become very expensive for parents
wishing frequent location updates on more than one child. Indeed, at a cost of $400/device, plus activation fees of
$35/each, a family with three children will run a hefty tab, at the outset and monthly.

Forward-looking pricing for this and similar devices does not support reduced projected manufacturing costs;
handheld GPS devices for orienteering have bottomed out at average prices of ~$169. It must be emphasized that
these devices have reached manufacturing quantities of over one million units annually. The hard floor preventing
further price reductions is due to GPS VLSI licensing fees.

Ignoring for a moment the power demands made by the GPS electronics, an integrated PCS paging module, and
the actual size of the device, we must now examine whether the choice of using GPS in this application is the right
choice - or was it made without the critical thinking necessary for a complex product architecture deployed to the
consumer market?

Why GPS?

GPS is an obvious choice for any Geo-Location application, right? The answer is not as simple as you
might think. Indeed, GPS was created to provide worldwide navigation and weapons targeting control by obviating
the need for terrestrial radio location systems. It is interesting to note as an aside that the aviation bureaucracy has
not completely replaced terrestrial ILS systems with GPS precision approach avionics, although work is furiously
forging ahead with the FAA’s usual alacrity!

2
Service Publications Interactive
Technology In-Focus

First, let us put some popular myths to rest. The widely held belief is that GPS provides precision location data
anywhere, at any time. This supposition is not correct, although GPS does provide the best overall probability of
acquiring a location fix anywhere on the earth’s surface. Still, certain atmospheric and structural obstacles can in-
terfere with GPS location. Professional GPS surveying apparatuses always rely on larger, external antenna masts.
The reason for this has to do with the need for multiple satellite acquisition. The GPS terminal device requires a
minimum of three satellites to capture for location fix, four for speed and heading, and five for elevation. The
smaller antennas in handheld GPS devices are the worst suited to reliable capture. When considering even smaller
devices, such as the Whereify child locator, the antenna constraints become even more onerous.

The greatest myth perpetrated on the consumer market for two-way Geo-location services, such as child and pet
location, is that GPS will operate in any area. The fallacy is that the locator product does not rely solely on GPS to
provide location; the embedded communications which provide return data are integral to the application. If a per-
sonal Geo-location device is dependent on network telemetry data, its services are only operational within the net-
work coverage area.

It therefore follows that since most wireless data services operate within major metropolitan areas and environs,
the Geo-location products married to these networks are similarly limited. Rural and medium-sized Midwest metro-
politan markets will be ultimately under-served by this product architecture. The lower average income levels found
in these markets further precludes the use of expensive terminal equipment, with their added burdens of carrier
fees and per-use charges.

So much for GPS being a ubiquitous solution.

And now, for something completely different...


The current uncritical thinking leading to the conclusion that GPS is the only viable Geo-location platform
for the consumer market is most probably due to a lack of imagination, and mental laziness on the part of the en-
trepreneurs bringing these early products to market. Caving into conventional thinking, they have essentially
brought a device to life that will cost a family with three children $1200 in equipment, $90 in enrollment fees, and up
to $150/month to operate. Furthermore, although business models can change, these subscribers will currently
have only a handful of demand location commands per device before overage charges apply.

A better idea would be to design a product that could be manufactured in sufficient quantities, such that the result-
ing economics would allow the device to be provided gratis or very inexpensively (on the order of less than $20).
These ‘Doppler Transponders’, are one-way devices which transmit on a fixed schedule, on one of several random
frequencies. They can be made compact and power efficient. Most important, however, is that in quantities of
100,000 and greater, these simple devices can reach a per unit cost of ~$10.

Geo-location of such devices is accomplished with a terrestrial network of compact, non-radiating, Pseudo-Doppler
receiving antenna masts; the more the merrier. In flatter, open areas, medium sized towns can be covered with a
half-dozen masts. The concrete canyons of Boston or New York would require a mast every 2.5 to 5 sq. Miles,
similar to PCS roof coverage.

The end result is that the location data return costs are shifted to the network. By placing the communications bur-
den on low-cost leased facilities, the user population can partake of unlimited location updates without demand and
overages fees. The extrication of such systems from the costly hackles of the PCS paging and voice network will
make these services available at much lower monthly costs, perhaps on the order of $9.95/month.

Liberating end-user hardware from the Svengali-like GPS grip provides us with a lightweight, low-cost device that
can be distributed by schools, volunteer organizations, and local police. Enrollment for services would be on-line for
those with computers, or through IVR for those without.

The Inevitable Naysayer.....!

3
Service Publications Interactive
Technology In-Focus

The most common objection from those who supposedly know better is that the build-out of a DDF network
is costly and time consuming in comparison to bringing a product to market based on GPS. The astute reader will
immediately comprehend that the use of GPS makes things easier....for the business venture, not the end-user!
The author believes that it ultimately will be wide acceptance at a diversity of economic levels that will make such
products successful.

The facts and available technology do not support the GPS peanut gallery. Existing mobile DDF equipment is very
economical. Terrestrial DDF base-receiver installations will start at $15-20,000 per site, and eventually fall to
<$5,000 as packaging and installation procedures are refined; there is no reason to conclude that the DDF fixed
site equipment cost curve would not follow that of commercial two-way radio and cellular system equipment pricing.

The modest costs of building out a DDF network in any metro area will be more than offset by increased market
penetration of the retail transponder product, due to its being smaller, lighter, and less costly on an initial and recur-
ring basis.

Such widespread acceptance might also lead to uses beyond pet and child location. There are innumerable appli-
cations for cost effective personal location services, such as house arrest programs, tracking registered sex-
offenders, and enforcing court orders of protection. These types of applications far exceed the technical capacity of
the radio reporting anklet currently in use, as these devices only signal out of range status, not location. It is highly
doubtful that law enforcement would adopt widespread Geo-location services unless the costs could be made
workable. Current use of GPS equipment for vehicular tracking has been adopted slowly due to high costs.

Most telling in regard to the GPS vs. DDF dichotomy is the little-known fact that the battle has already been fought.
Wildlife tracking experts rely on a wide array of tools to track the migratory routes of all types of animals. When the
number of tracking targets is large, such as the caribou herd in Iceland, DDF has played an important role in keep-
ing per unit and recurring costs down. When tracking targets in deeply remote areas or on the high seas (whales,
for example), GPS is employed as the only option.

The experts have spoken without emotion on the subject: DDF wins where costs are critical, whereas GPS trumps
where fewer high value targets are in far flung remote areas.

The Back-End

The word is out that even some executives married to GPS Geo-location retail services feel like they’ve
been caught asleep at the switch, as comparative cost models show that the amortization of fixed DDF sites will fa-
vor the bottom line in comparison to the initial contract manufacturing outlays being disbursed for the GPS kid lo-
cator. The parties voluntarily weighing in for this report, without exception, have expressed their opinion that
Whereify is likely selling this first generation of products at a loss in order to subsidize the early market. Whether
this is a sustainable proposition is yet to be seen.

The back-end puzzle, where e-commerce meets the Geo-location technology infrastructure, is very similar for both
methodologies. Enrollment must be made over the Web, or some other on-line wired medium, such as IVR. A GIS
system must be employed in order to serve up location data to the subscriber. Whereify also provides, in addition
to street addresses, satellite photos of the location.

A divergence does become apparent in regards to frequency of location updates. GPS based systems relying on
wireless telemetry are limited by network usage costs, whereas DDF based services can supply unlimited position
updating at flat rates.

Summary

4
Service Publications Interactive
Technology In-Focus

The GPS vs. DDF technology debate is really no debate at all. In a business climate where
original thought is highly restricted, the dominant system, GPS, will prevail as a sacred cow - not due to fitness of
purpose, but due merely to the fact that its mind share simply outstrips that of the DDF method.

It is an open question at this time whether $400 devices and $40/month fees will culture a market for personal loca-
tion services. Unless and until a free-thinking company comes along to employ DDF Geo-location services, with its
attendant superiority in all things related to the end-user economy, our imaginings will have to suffice.

Alan D. Wilensky, Senior Analyst


Service Publications Interactive
351 Pleasant Street
Suite 329
Northampton, MA 01060
abm@world.std.com
(413) 587-0748
(617) 839-0770 cell
(617) 249-2021 fax

About the Author: : Alan Wilensky is a product analyst specializing in enterprise technical publishing technologies.
A technology service executive for 20 years and the inventor of the TekDisc IETM format standard, Mr. Wilensky
previously held the position of GM at Vicom Multimedia’s prestigious Interactive Workplace division, as Sr. Product
Analyst for EDMS Systems architecture at e-doc Architects, and as Senior Consultant of the e-publishing business
group at Sencore Electronic Publishing.

5
Personal Doppler
Locating System
A Competitive Answer to GPS
Misapplication.

Presented by:
Alan Wilensky
abm@world.std.com

PDLS Facts:

Grew Out of ACTARS DDF System`

Smaller, Lighter, Cheaper than GPS

Provides for Lowest Recurring


Subscriber Costs
The Most Fantastic Emerging Technical
Device Market, Universally Endorsed.

Court orders of
Child Locators
Protection

Infrastructure Venues

Key Personnel
House Arrest
Monitoring

Strategic & Cooperative Market


Channels:
Law Enforcement
Educational Institutions
Civilian Organizations (NCMEC)
Security VARS
NIJ Technology Infrastructure Enablement Pgm.
New Market, Old Mistakes:
New GPS personal locators debut at ~400 - 35/mo.
Devices Limited by PCS/network coverage
Current Devices are on-demand only...
Over-usage communication fees may apply
Devices are large, conspicuous, power-hungry
They currently offer no application specific sensors*
Market Research shows poor projected adoption rate -
even down to <$200 - 25/mo.

Ours, Theirs...

Theirs (GPS) Ours (DDF)

$400.00 / 35.00 / 35.00 Free (or cheap <$40.00), 0.0/ 9.95

Demand Location Allotment Continuos updates @ n/c -

Interrogate only ROI Boundary Alerts

Proprietary Micro-Sensors* adds only


No Application Specific Sensors
pennies to mfrg.
DDF Locator Device Architecture

Flex COB construction = light, cheap, inconspicuous


Pseudo-random or slotted TX architecture with mod/n
freq. allocation
10-50 ISM channel slow hop w/synch - foils technical
interlopers
Secure mechanical lock - no solenoids, electrics -
Anti-tamper Kevlar or Aramid fiber band with cut-sensor
Micro Sensors for auto-abduction alerting
Cheap enough to give away

Terrestrial DDF Receiver System


Self configuring modular system
Plug into AC - Phone line - that's it !
Auto Registers Self Position - System ID
Responds with locator ID, S/N vote, and opt.
Signal TOA
Will eventually reach ~$5,000.00
Can be installed by municipalities
Back-End System
Self Enrollment of Locator via Web or IVR
Credit/debit/pre-pay
Cooperative revenue sharing w/ muni's - orgs
GIS server w/Java client allows ROI alarms via
pager
V2.0 allows wireless Position reporting via Palm,
Pocket-PC, RIM.(WXML)

Other Markets

Court Order of Protection Enforcement


House arrest programs
Prisons - prisoner transport
Mental health anti-elopement
Law Enforcement - foot patrol location
Challenges:
GPS mindset may be difficult to overcome; DDF will need
public demonstration
COB Flex prototyping very challenging for RF applications;
needs topnotch RF layout engineering
COTS DDF equipment need modification and
augmentation for short pulse train/slow hop System -
(asynchronous auto-correlation)
Realistic capitalization requires market by market entry
approach - as opposed to GPS ubiquity.
Therefore, cooperative marketing must be initiated from
the outset

Projected Capitalization
500k for 1st batch of DDF terminal devices - Q3
750k for 1st 25 DDF remote receivers - Q4
~350k for back end System - Q4-5
350k Marketing and Ops. Q4-8
2 yr. timeline to 1M units - profit in Q5-6
My Part:
Product Specifications, vendor relations
Delegate R&D timeline and milestones
Launch marketing programs, and initiate market
evangelism....
Thus leading to a ready to sell market through
coop channels and VARS
Q6 goal is to have market ready systems deployed to
VAR channel immediately following successful pilot
System tests (Q4-5) under corp. control.
PDLS 2-year projected startup expenses

Y1-2 expenses are projected with the following assumptions:

Domestic R&D and Marketing only

Development Hardware NRE costs may be reduced by up to 35% if venture is recognized as a 'strategic partner' by vendors
No Manufacturing other than build to order in Y1

Expense Y1 Y2 (PDDF Units start to enter routine production)


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Fixed NRE's TOTAL TOTAL
Hardware Eng. Lab $25,000 $25,000 $25,000 $25,000 $100,000 $10,000 $10,000 $5,000 $5,000 $30,000
PDLS Vendor $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $100,000 $250,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $200,000
PDDF Vendor $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $100,000 $250,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $200,000
Software $5,000 $5,000 $2,500 $2,500 $15,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $5,000
Systems $15,000 $15,000 $30,000 $50,000 $100,000 $50,000 $50,000 $250,000
Fixtures $2,500 $2,500 $2,500 $2,000 $9,500 $2,500 $2,000 $1,000 $1,000 $6,500
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,500 $2,500
subtotal $132,500 $132,500 $145,000 $244,500 $654,500 subtotal $164,500 $213,000 $157,000 $159,500 $694,000
Marketing TOTAL TOTAL
Collateral $0 $0 $5,000 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $20,000 $15,000 $70,000
Advertising $0 $0 $5,000 $5,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $40,000
Direct Mail $0 $0 $0 $5,000 $5,000 $0 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $15,000
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
subtotal $0 $0 $10,000 $15,000 $25,000 subtotal $25,000 $35,000 $35,000 $30,000 $125,000
Labor TOTAL TOTAL
Prod. Mgmt. $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $120,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $120,000
HD PDDF $21,250 $21,250 $21,250 $21,250 $85,000 $21,250 $21,250 $21,250 $21,250 $85,000
HD PDLS $21,250 $21,250 $21,250 $21,250 $85,000 $21,250 $21,250 $21,250 $21,250 $85,000
Eng. asst. $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $60,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $60,000
Sales $0 $0 $0 $20,000 $20,000 $25,000 $25,000 $25,000 $25,000 $100,000
Support $0 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $70,000
Admin. $0 $0 $0 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $40,000
subtotal $87,500 $87,500 $87,500 $127,500 $390,000 subtotal $132,500 $142,500 $142,500 $142,500 $560,000
Supplies $0 $2,000 $1,500 $1,500 $5,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,500 $1,500 $8,000
Postage $0 $0 $0 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $6,000
Telephone $500 $500 $1,000 $1,000 $3,000 $1,500 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $7,500
Legal1 $2,000 $2,000 $7,500 $7,500 $19,000 $0 $0 $0 $10,000 $10,000
Dues $1,100 $0 $0 $0 $1,100 $1,100 $0 $0 $0 $1,100
Travel $0 $0 $4,000 $6,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $40,000
SUBTOTAL $3,600 $4,500 $14,000 $17,500 $39,600 SUBTOTAL $17,100 $15,000 $15,000 $25,500 $72,600
GRANDTOT $223,600 $224,500 $256,500 $404,500 $1,109,100 GRANDTOT $339,100 $405,500 $349,500 $357,500 $1,451,600
pdls Projected Revenue Y1-2

Revenue -- Pretax
Assumptions: Each Month brings 2.1 Markets on line
Plan Calls for 77 markets to meet 1M devices - we are stopping here at 62 for reality's sake

Y1 Y2 Y3
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Coop TOTAL
M1 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $3,060,000
M2 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,760,000
M3 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,760,000
M4 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,760,000
M5 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,760,000
M6 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,760,000
M7 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,760,000
M8 $0.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,370,000
M9 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,370,000
M10 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,370,000
M11 $0 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,370,000
M12 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,370,000
M13 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $2,370,000
M14 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $1,980,000
M15 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $1,980,000
M16 $0 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $1,980,000
M17 $0 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $1,980,000
M18 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $390,000.00 $1,980,000
M19 $0 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $1,590,000
M20 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $1,590,000
M21 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $1,590,000
M22 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $1,590,000
M23 $0 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $1,590,000
M24 $0 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $1,590,000
M25 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $1,590,000
M26 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000.00 $1,590,000
M27 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $1,200,000
M28 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $1,200,000
M29 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $1,200,000
M30 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $1,200,000
M31 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $1,200,000
M32 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $1,200,000
33 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $900,000
34 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $900,000
35 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $900,000
36 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $900,000
37 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $900,000
38 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $900,000
39 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $600,000
40 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $600,000
41 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $600,000
42 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $600,000
43 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $600,000
44 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000 $600,000
45 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000
46 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000
47 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000
48 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000
49 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000
50 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $300,000 $300,000
SUBTOTAL SUBTOTAL $2,100,000.00 $3,900,000.00 $5,400,000.00 $7,800,000.00 $10,230,000.00 $12,570,000.00 $14,820,000.00 $17,340,000.00 $74,460,000.00
Overhaed $1,560,000.00 $3,468,000.00 $14,892,000.00
AFTEXP20% $6,240,000.00 $13,872,000.00 $59,568,000.00
PDLS Y1
Page 1 of 2 9/3/02

2002 2003
TASK S O N D J F M A M J J A S O

Plant Setup, hire, dev. resources


9/9 9/27
Design Finalization
9/13 10/14
Design Staff Meetings
10/8 11/7
Vendor Relations Preliminary RFP
10/15 11/6
PDLS Device
11/5 2/11
Mechanical
Electrical & PA 11/7 1/21
12/19 1/19
Exciter and Mod.
12/20 1/22
Protocols ECC
12/18 2/9
Encoder &Controller
11/5 2/11
PDDF Rack
10/10 3/1
Mechanical
10/10 11/21
Module Integration Testing
Firmware 11/2 1/17
12/20 2/26
Data Comms
12/21 3/1
DDF Network
12/19 3/26
DDF Protocol
12/19 3/8
DDF Mux/demux
1/20 3/26
Ops Console
Session DB 2/25 6/17
2/25 5/3
Lib Functions & Services
2/26 5/9
e-commerce
3/25 6/8
WML
3/28 6/17
Clients Svcs
LOB Integration
3/13 6/10
PDLS Y2
Page 2 of 2 9/3/02

2002 2003
TASK S O N D J F M A M J J A S O

System Modules
11/14 6/13
Qualifier Processes
11/14 3/19
Dispatcher Processes
11/14 3/20
Interproc Messaging
1/17 3/31
Token Data Definitions
1/18 4/2
IDToken Routing
DB SN Security 1/17 5/1
4/14 6/7
GIS
4/14 6/10
Data Visualization
4/15 6/13
UI and Functional
4/16 8/17
Object Behaviors
4/16 7/15
Display Format
5/21 8/17
Menu Hierarchy
Operator 1/17 4/24
1/17 4/19
Admin
1/20 4/20
System
1/20 4/24
System Integration
9/20 10/5
Remote PDDF Diagnostics
4/11 7/28
PDLS Codes
Field Tests 6/26 9/7
8/7 10/5
Errata - Vendor supplier issues
12/4 4/9
PDDF PDLS Contract Mfr.
quotes 7/19 8/17
Open Information
9/20 12/13
UL - CSA - EU Reg.
9/6 10/7
PDDF
Backhaul Link - 56k Digital or voice grade lines

E-Comm PDDF
TO NOS & GIS
Server

PDDF PDDF Remote Receiver sites

Data Mux
ISP term provider backbone

Network Access Processor PDDF

PDDF
C:\WINDOWS\Desktop\PDLSdiagrams\PDDF Remote.flo
Wednesday, December 04, 1996

Mast/Combiner

Digital Rec. Comb. Preamp Auto-Orienteering S/N Vote

TOA

Bearing Resolver. GPS E. Compass

Sys. Time
Controller Data
Comms.
PA
Power Cont.

Band Tamper Panic Pull


Ring

MOD XCITER
OSC

CPU

ECC Encoder

IDSET MicroSens
C:\WINDOWS\Desktop\PDLSdiagrams\LOB.flo
Wednesday, December 04, 1996

PDLS Profit Centers


4

10K$ PDDF x 20 = 100k Franchise


10 users=100k/mo
20k PDDF
5
2
Adjacent Corp.
Municipal
Revenue $900k/mo.
1-N 6
Costs=600,000 @ 5k
Core Market Muni
PDDF
Revenue300k

7 Total PDDF = 180


Franchise sites

3 90k Subscribers
Adjacent 8
Municipal
Corp.

10K$ PDDF x 20 = 100k


9

Muni

Page 1
C:\WINDOWS\Desktop\PDLSdiagrams\R&Dflow.flo
Thursday, September 12, 2002

Method

500k Down on X9 This ballparks


20k 1st
PDLS CM R&D MArkets=180k expected volume for
Batch PDLS
Assistance units positive CM interest.

Path to 1st unit


partnerships

Revenue Congruent with desired


500k Down 25-50 PDDF
flowthrough aft. 3 +100 unit volume for
on PDDF units
marketsleads to PDDF vendors.
Vendor R&D included
5k PDDF

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen