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[Economy] 9% GDP and 4% Agriculture growth: Fodder material for

Essay and Interviews

Z-Miscellaneous ( / 3 years Ago

English: SP Bakshi


What is the theme of 12th Five Year plan?


What are the main targets of 12th FYP?


Governments role in Development


Time Factor






Policy environment




Reducing the fiscal deficit


Strategy #1: Increase revenues


Strategy#2: Reduce non-Plan expenditure.


Railways: Cross subsidization


How to get 4% Agriculture growth?


Cold storage


Supply lines


Land Leasing


Non-farm Employment


Change the focus




Regional imbalance


Infrastructure Development

Where is the money?


Quick Project implementation


Reforms in the Financial Sector


Crowding out corporate borrowing


Energy Economy



Reducing Energy Intensity




Increasing Domestic Energy Supply


Coal production


Solar and Nuke Energy







Managing Water Resources


Water price






Environment Protection




Government schemes



This is not really an article, just compilation of some important fodder material for GS, essay,
group discussion and interview.
Often we hear the newspaper columnists and TV-debatewallas talking
if India wants 9% growth then it should xyz
if India wants 4% growth in agriculture then it should do xyz
So, let us make a list on what should be done.

What is the theme of 12th Five Year plan?

Theme=Faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth.
Lets deconstruct the theme.
Faster growth= GDP should grow at 9% per year.
Sustainble growth = you know what that means. If not, go through Kyoto and RIO+20 article
More inclusive growth= Women, SC,ST,BPL, Physically challenged and minorities should also

benefit from 9% GDP growth. + The fruits of Growth should be spread all over India and
should not get concentrated in a few big states only.

What are the main targets of 12th FYP?

(list is not exhaustive)
Every year GDP should grow the 9%. (this was the original target but in Oct 2012,
Government concluded that it is beyond our aukaat to grow at 9%, so the new target is 8.2%
per year).
Every year Agriculture sector should grow at 4%, because
Higher agricultural growth would provide income benefits to the rural population and
Itll also reduce food inflation.
Every year, manufacturing sector should grow at 10%
At present, 30 per cent of the population is below poverty line. 12thFYP
wants to bring down

the poverty ratio by 10 per cent.

major flagship programmes in the Eleventh Plan, would continue in the Twelfth Plan. most
notably the
1. National Health Mission (NHM),
2. Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA),
3. Pradhan Mantri Gramin Sadak Yojana (PMGSY)
4. Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS)
5. National Rural Livelihoods Mission (NRLM).
Focus Areas: Health, education, infrastructure and skill development
Allocation in the health sector is all set to double.

Governments role in Development

Nowadays much of the growth process is now driven by actors outside the direct control of
These actors are : farmers, entrepreneurs, corporate houses and market forces.
This, however, does not mean that government has no role to play in the development
Government has important role to play in Indias Growth.

There are four areas, where Governments role is essential:

1. providing a policy environment (FDI, environment clearnaces, land acquisition etc)
2. Developing infrastructure (roads, dams, powerhouses, ports, railways etc)
3. Supporting poor and vulnerable groups. (through various schemes)
4. Providing essential public services (police, fire, health education, drinking water, sanitation

Time Factor
Development requires time and patience. For example, if Government takes step to
improve education for the poor kids.
but the impact will only be reflected in actual income earning much later (When they grow
up and start earning).
So, even when policies are moving in the right direction, the results may only be evident
much later.

A moderate level of inflation, is unavoidable for a growing economy.
but when inflation beyond this tolerable level usually put at 5 percent to 6 percent, then itll
start damaging the overall growth and inclusiveness (of poor people.)
Inflation has been well above this level in the past two years and while India is not the only
emerging market country experiencing this problem.
But inflation in India has been higher than in most other countries
High rates of inflation in food prices, especially vegetables, fruits, milk, eggs, reflected in
double digit rates of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the past two
Main reasons for inflation in India
1. Rise in global prices of crude oil, foodgrains and metals.
2. domestic supply constraints in the food economy other than foodgrains.
3. High Fiscal deficit

Fixing ination

Monetary policy is the traditional instrument for dealing with overall inflation,
Last two years, RBI gradually tightened the monetary policy, but it can be effective only if it
is supported by appropriate fiscal policy.(i.e. steps by Government)

India has become a more open economy in the post-LPG Era. But It is still less dependent on
export demand than other emerging market countries
Problem: How India can actually expect to grow faster in an environment in which export
demand will be weaker. (because of slowdown in US and EU).
Answer: even if export demand from industrialised countries is weaker, many emerging
market countries are projected to grow more rapidly. (Brazil, South East Asia etc.)
So, if we target these fast growing markets our export performance could be improved.
Traditionally, we have viewed current account deficits of around 2 percent of GDP as
current account deficit in 2010-11 was already around 2.5 percent of GDP

Policy environment
India has only recently begun to attract global capital and given the size of the economy, and
its perceived high growth potential,
If Indian Governments policy towards FDI is seen to be supportive, then India will remain an
attractive investment destination for coming years.
But there is also a situation when but investment does not take place even after allowing
FDI, relaxing environment laws etc. simply because entrepreneurs do not find investment
opportunities attractive, i e, animal spirits are missing.
Therefore, Government needs to create an overall policy environment conductive for
investment (not just FDI but also infrastructure, labor laws etc.)

In the coming years, working age population in India will increase.
At the same in the industrialised countries, and also in China, it will be going down.
This situation can work as a demographic dividend only if
1. sufficient investment is taking place to generate the GDP growth (and thus employment) to

absorb this youth.

2. right education and vocation skills are given to the youth.
Right now, over 90 percent of our labour force has received no formal training prior to
employment and skills are typically acquired only on the job.
This is simply not consistent with target of 9 percent growth.
Indias position today is roughly comparable to Chinas in the 1985, and starting from that
position, China achieved an average growth of GDP over 10 percent per annum for 30 years.
There is no reason why India cannot do the same.

How to upgrade skills of labour force?

Eleventh Plan had set a target of having 500 million individuals in the labour force with some
formal training by 2020.
There is National Skill Development Council under the chairmanship of the prime minister.
But Government must Involve the private sector in skill development, because it increases
the likelihood that the skills imparted are marketable.

Reducing the scal decit

(we already discussed this in length, in the two kelkar articles) but still
Fiscal deficit can be reduced through two pronged strategy

Strategy #1: Increase revenues

most important initiative in this context is the Goods and Services Tax (GST)
Because implementation of the GST involves a constitutional amendment, a successful
outcome may take time
but once achieved, it will be a major achievement.

Strategy#2: Reduce non-Plan expenditure.

Some reduction in non-Plan expenditure will happen automatically because
1. Government employment is not expected to increase significantly.
2. Government is not going to form any No new pay commission for some years.
Government provides lots of subsidies on food, fertilisers and on petroleum products,
which together account for around 2 percent of GDP.

Food subsidies, alone amount to about 0.7 percent of GDP.

But Food subsidies cannot be reduced much, because of upcoming National Food Security

Railways: Cross subsidization

Cross subsidy in crude term means that Railways doesnt increase passange train ticket price
and makes losses. So to cover these losses, it increases the freight (goods, coal etc.)
transport prices. And thus indirectly increases the inflation.
Solution: freight tariffs should be lowered and passenger fares raised.

How to get 4% Agriculture growth?

Need to increase R&D in seeds Development.
improve soil health: increase micro-nutrients and carbon content in the soil.
Provide soil health cards issued to farmers, with periodic soil testing. Then the farmer will be
given tailormade advice on how type of crops, seeds, fertilizer, irrigation method is suitable
for his farm, according to his soil-health card.
Carbon content can be increased by shifting from the traditional practice of burning crop
residue to leaving it in the field.
Reduce water consumption in agriculture
Use new practices such as land levelling, use of drip irrigation, zero till cultivation, raised
seedbed planting
in the case of rice, adoption of the System of Rice Intensification (SRI).
Cold storage
Most of the Agriculture growthin future will come not from foodgrains
but from sectors such as horticulture, dairying and fisheries, where the produce is
perishable (Food that will decay rapidly ifnot refrigerated)
So Government must pay greater attention transporting produce from the farm to the
consumer, with minimum spoilage.
This requires active involvement of the private sector, cold storages, better quality roads etc.
Supply lines

The present Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) Acts prevent the private
sector buyers from dealing directly with producers.
State Governments must amend these acts.
Land Leasing
state governments is the reform of laws relating to leasing of land.
When rural population increase, the farm holdings are subdivided and become uneconomic.
The very small and marginal farmers should lease out their tiny land to more viable farmers,
and move into other sectors for better employment.
But small farmers will do it only if they felt that they could lease out their land and get it back
when they want.
Yet, leasing is not legal in some states. Where it is allowed, the law is biased towards the
tenant (Someone who pays rent to use land).
So state Governments should also amend the laws accordingly.
Non-farm Employment
In manufacturing sector, the corporates make huge profit even after giving salaries to the
employees. And much of this profit is reinvested for research and Development of new
products. (e.g. Apples iphone 5) and in expansion (e.g. Tata making new automobile plant in
some state)
Therefore, manufacture and service sector continues to grow, because new products are
created, new demand is generated, new employment is generated.
But Productivity in agriculture is low and too many people are employed in it. So after paying
for seeds, farm-labourers, even a big farmer doesnt have enough extra-money/profit left,
which he can use to drastically change his farming practice (like buying big farming
equipments from US, importing best hybrid quality seeds from top company etc.)
Therefore Government should focus on two things:
1. land consolidation : small farmers should lease their land to big farmers/ cooperative
2. move people out of the agro-sector.
This is actually necessary to reduce the present underemployment/ disguised
unemployment in agriculture and increase real wages in this sector.

Agriculture growthwill itself give rise to new demands for non-agricultural services and
generate employment in agriculture-related sectors such as modernised marketing and
agro-processing activity.
Change the focus
At present, Governments policy/ attitude is that if give the farmers huge subsidies in
electricity, seeds, and loans, then agro-productivity will automatically increase.
But Government should focus more on changing in farming practices, introducing new
technology. So that farmers become less dependent on subsidies in the long run.
If Government wants to move people out of agriculture, then Micro, small and medium
enterprises (MSME), are generally more labour absorbing,
MSME are also potential seedbeds for innovation and entrepreneurship.
So Government must provide policy environment to encourage the growth of these
industries and this does not mean sops and subsidies. But instead, give them
first class infrastructure which includes both reliable electricity supply at reasonable cost.

Regional imbalance
Northern states are industrially backward at present, but have high labour supply.
Hence there is lot of inter-state migration.
So the respective Governments must improve the employment opportunites right within
their states.
How? By attracting both national and international companies in their states.
But those companies will come only if there is right atmosphere and environment in the
state. That means
1. No naxalite problem
2. No kidnapping and extortions.
3. Sufficient electricity and water supply
4. Quick land acquisition and environment clearnaces.
5. Rationalise our labour laws to give employers more flexibility to shed labour when faced
with a downturn.

Infrastructure Development
infrastructure sectors = power, roads, ports, airports, and railways
some sectors, e g, telecommunications, achieving higher levels of investment than projected,
while others achieved significantly less.
For 9% growth, we need total investment of $1 trillion over the Twelfth Plan period.
But how to finance infrastructure projects? Two problems

Where is the money?

Government doesnt have enough money.
And Government the first priority must be to spend money in education and health.
Because those two sectors are crucial for inclusiveness and are currently underfunded.
Both the central and state governments must therefore follow an infrastructure strategy
which consists of a combination of public investment and public-private partnership (PPP).
Public investment would have to be directed to areas where the private sector is unlikely to
come. (e.g. backward regions, rural areas).

Quick Project implementation

This is second major challenge in infrastructure.
Infrastructure projects are often delayed due to difficulties in land acquisition and
environmental clearance.
the current processes are often not sufficiently transparent and predictable.
We need to move to a system with much greater transparency, predictability.

Reforms in the Financial Sector

This sector involves: banks, non-bank finance companies, microfinance institutions, capital
markets, mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds and venture capital fund etc.

reform are already in the pipeline

road map for new private sector banks and foreign investment in banks,
deregulation of the savings rate offered by banks
increasing FDI in pension, insurance etc.

passage of the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Bill,

passage of the Company Laws Amendment which will modernise bankruptcy proceedings.
creation of the Public Debt Management Office outside the RBI

Crowding out corporate borrowing

In the earlier articles, we already saw that
1. there are two ways to finance a company: Debt / Equity.
2. very high fiscal deficit, crowds out corporate borrowing. (recall first Kelkar article)
LIC, EPFO, etc, are very conservative at present when it comes to investment. Whatever
money they get from clients, they prefer to invest it in G-sec instead of higher yielding
corporate bonds.
Reason: if the private company defaults or goes bankrupt then it is very hard and timeconsuming to recover the bond-money.
While banks, can easily recover loan money via SARFAESI, bond holders can only have
recourse to liquidation and bankruptcy procedures which are hopelessly time consuming.
Therefore Government must amend the Company laws etc. to fix this problem.

Energy Economy
global supply of crude oil = will remain tighter in the years ahead, and therefore crude oil
price will also remain high
Therefore we must increase domestic supply of energy from both conventional and nononventional resources.
Reducing Energy Intensity
LPG and Kerosene
Petrol price is deregulated.
LPG and kerosene prices remain under administrative control and are currently set well
below global levels
Government doesnt want to raise kerosene and LPG prices because of the impact on
vulnerable groups,
but it must be recognised that the subsidy implicit in the present low prices of kerosene and

LPG is completely untargeted.

In the case of kerosene, it also leads to large-scale black marketing, adulteration and
Solution: Implementation of a unique identification number.
Electricity prices are set by supposedly independent state regulators, but there is strong
political pressure on regulators in many states and it prevents them from increasing
electricity price.
The system must be allowed to function properly so that electricity prices are not artificially
depressed, especially as coal prices are expected to rise. (otherwise subsidy burden= more
fiscal deficit= inflation.)

Increasing Domestic Energy Supply

expand domestic production of petroleum, natural gas and also coal to avoid excessive
import dependence
Coal production
Coal industry is nationalised, although private investment is allowed in captive coal mines (i
e, coal mines linked to power plants or steel and cement plants).
the policy for the coal industry should be liberalised allowing private investment.
Solar and Nuke Energy
We must also take steps to exploit the full potential of other energy sources notably nuclear,
solar and wind power.
Both nuclear and solar power are more expensive than coal / gas power plants and
While increased reliance on solar/nuke sources will contribute to energy security, reduce
climate change, but it does imply higher energy costs.
But Costs can be expected to come down as technology develops further. (e.g. compare
price of Desktop PC in 1998 vs 2012)
Expansion of nuclear power is an important element of Indias long-term energy strategy

and this has been facilitated by the recent agreement with the Nuclear Suppliers Group
which gives India access to imported uranium, and also opens windows for other
cooperation in this area.
Problem: Bogus NGOs and semi-naxalite intellectuals protesting against Nuke plants after
receiving bribes from abroad.
India has target to install 20,000 MW of solar power by 2020.
India has the potential to be a significant supplier of solar-equipment to other countries.
Can make huge dams in Arunchal Pradesh and generate thosands of MW electricy.
Problem: border disputes with China.
Managing Water Resources
Indias available supply of fresh water is the same as it was 5,000 years ago, and the
population has grown.
excessive withdrawal of = water table gets low =land salinity increases = agriculture output
If things are left to business as usual, the situation will worsen steadily.
1. building storage dams,
2. investing in watershed management to improve surface water retention a
3. groundwater recharge
4. forcing industry to treat waste water for reuse.
5. About 80 percent of Indias water use is for agriculture and it is technically feasible with
better agricultural practices, to reduce water use in agriculture by 40 percent to 50
6. land levelling drip irrigation
Water price
Government keeps the price of irrigational water very low.

This leads to poor maintenance of the canal system due to low funds.
The present laws only provide for banning new tubewells in areas where the water table has
fallen too far.
This only confers a monopoly on existing tubewell owners to pump as much water as they
wish and sell it to other farmers.
Free electricity for agriculture provides a wholly unjustified incentive for such activity (of
selling tubewell water).
So, state governments should consider imposing a cess (tax on tax), on electricity for
agricultural use in all areas where the water level has sunk too low.
Right now only 30% of the sewage generated in urban areas, is treated before getting
discarged into rivers. Government should increase this to 100%.
The urban percentage of the population is currently around 30 percent, and is expected to
reach 40 percent by 2030.
Most of the revenue generated from economic activity in the country occurs in urban areas.
But most of this tax Revenue goes to Union and State Government and not to the city
So, municipalities in India also have limited money to improve the water, sewerage and
urban transport system.
Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) introduced in the Eleventh
Plan fixing this problem. But much needs to be done yet.
Environment Protection
We want high growth (9%) without inflicting much damage to the environment.
But these two objectives (9% growth vs protect environment) cannot be achieved
simultaneously in many situations for example,
9% growth = need lots of power/electricity =need coal and hydropower= forest clearance.
9% growth = require industrialisation = leads to water +air pollution.
Therfore some compromise is necessary.
But there are certain areas where we must not make any compromise, for example tiger

reserves and very select biospheres.

Corruption in land-acquisition and land allotment
Corruption in Spectrum and minerals allocation.
These things indirectly increase the input cost for the entrepreneurs and hence inflation
also increases.
As a general rule, competitive bidding among qualified bidders provides the most
transparent way of allocating scarce resources such as mining rights or spectrum.
Many countries have a public procurement law whereas in India government procurement is
governed by rules.
Government schemes
In following schemes, the Complaints of leakages, inefficiency and corruption are widespread
1. subsidised foodgrains through the PDS
2. National Social Assistance Programme (NSAP) which provides an old age pension
4. National Rural Drinking Water Programme: at covering villages which do not have an
assured supply of potable water
5. Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY) : electricity to all uncovered villages and
provides free connection to all BPL families
6. Indira Awas Yojana (IAY) which provides assistance to the rural poor to build pucca homes
Why problem?
central government only finances these programmes, and actual implementation is carried
out by state government agencies
Many schemes involve cooperation between different departments of government, e g, of
agriculture, irrigation and rural development or the departments of health, education and
women and child development.
Unfortunately, Government departments typically work in silos = interdepartmental
cooperation very difficult = lot of leakage and wastage.
Secondly many schemes haveseparateid-cards and registers = cross verification difficult =

corruption. So need to fully implement UID as soon as possible.

The panchayati raj institutions (PRIs) donot have enough funds to carry out the Development

No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come.
We live in a world of rising and faltering economies. So, The future is what we make of it.
Nothing is ordained or pre-determined. India can rise, if the right steps at taken at right
Much of what needs to be done to accelerate GDP growth to 9% (or 8.2%) will be done by
the private sector, but the governments too have a crucial role to play in providing a policy
environment that is seen as investor friendly and is supportive of inclusive growth.

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