Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
An assortment of products are sold under the Massey Ferguson brand including tractors, combines, hay
& forage, planting and seeding, tillage and several other attachments. Agco also holds a 23% interest in
TAFE in India, which manufactures Massey Ferguson branded tractors under a license agreement.
Fendt is primarily a European tractor and combine brand with sales also in the United States.
Challenger was acquired in 2002 from Caterpillar and sells tractors, combines, hay, seeding and tillage
equipment.
Valtra is a European and Brazilian tractor brand that Agco acquired two months before Richenhagen
was hired in 2004. It also sells tractors in China and Australia.
GSI comprises 7% of AGCO sales. GSI is a grain storage and protein production equipment business that
was acquired in 2011. The majority of sales are in the U.S., but it is expanding globally. See the M&A
section for more information.
GEOGRAPHY
Europe, Africa, Middle East (EMEA) (53% Sales, 59% EBIT, 9.7% OPM)
Europe is by far the largest market for Agco. It has 1,100 dealers and competes against CLAAS, CNH, Deere and
SAME. I have been unable to find market share data for CNH or Agco, but CNH claims it is first in tractor sales,
second in combines, and third in hay and forage equipment. Agco is most likely the second largest player. I have
read in the press that Agco has 25 to 35% market share, but I have been unable to confirm.
In tractors, Deere has a 20% market share in the EU-28, the same share it has had since it began reporting such
data in 2004. The industry data includes low, mid, and high horsepower tractors, but Deere does not break it
out, so it could have gained share in the high horsepower segment while losing share in the lower horsepower
segment. In the combine market, Deere has slipped from 20% market share in 2004 to 16% in 2013.
Since 2004, industry unit growth for both tractors and combines has been very low, if nonexistent. Future
growth will likely come from Eastern Europe as well as Ukraine and Russia, where tractors versus arable land is
1/8 of that in the United States. Obviously, with the outlook for Ukraines and Russias economies being dismal,
this is a long term opportunity, but could be viewed as providing long-term optionality. Although unit growth is
low, equipment manufacturers have been able to increase prices. See appendix for more information.
LATAM/South America (17% Sales, 16% EBIT, 8.1% OPM)
In Brazil and Argentina, Agco sells through 340 independent dealers. Massey Ferguson reportedly has 60%
market share in South America and Brazil, but I have been unable to confirm. Agco holds the number-one
position in sales and is trying to stave off both CNH and Deere. In Brazil, Agco sells through mostly exclusive
dealers. In Argentina and the rest of South America, Agco sells through distributors. Brazil is an attractive market
because it has grown quickly and will likely grow faster than the U.S. and Europe in the future. From 2004 to
2013 tractor unit sales grew 9.5%. Larger farms and increasing arable land have helped drive that growth. Note,
the Brazilian Real (BRL) was down 10% vs the USD in 2014 and is down another 7% YTD. The depreciation will
hurt Agcos translational results in the short term. The BRL is now 75% below the OECDs estimate of PPP and
could prove to be another source of upside for Agcos USD consolidated results if the currency reverts to parity
over time.
North America (25% Sales, 26% EBIT, 9.1% OPM)
Agco is the third-best seller in North America behind Deere at number one and CNH at number two. Agco sells
through 1,300 dealers, out of which 500 are for GSI (grain storage and protein production). Under the umbrella
of price leadership by Deere, Agco has been able to maintain profitability while reducing and thereby optimizing
its dealer network from independent non-exclusive dealers to independent exclusive dealers. In 2005, Agco had
approximately 1,500 agriculture dealers in the United States and has whittled the network down to 800 today.
The initiative has helped Agco increase profitability in North America and will continue to help its service
offering. Some estimate that Agco has a 10% market share in the U.S. tractor market, but I have been unable to
confirm.
Kubota is a Japanese company that has previously focused on low horsepower, combines, attachments, and
construction equipment. Kubota has a new focus on larger agriculture products and has the potential to be a
threat to Agco.
COST STRUCTURE
On average, 75 to 80% of the wholesale cost of equipment is the cost of materials. Approximately 10% of the
cost is direct labor, with the remaining 10% coming from maintenance, utilities and overhead. Needless to say,
Agco operates in a high fixed cost business where profits are driven by scale and volumes.
M&A
In November 2011, Agco acquired GSI, a grain storage and protein production equipment business for an
enterprise value of $930 million from Centerbridge Partners. AGCO paid 11.5x current year EV/EBITA and
believed it would grow sales 7% cagr through 2016 to equal $1.0 billion in sales. Sales by geography were: North
America (71%), South America (9%), Asia (11%), and Europe, Africa and Middle East (9%). The business earned a
13% operating margin in 2011 and Agco forecasted that it would generate 15% margins. In 2011, Agco had $377
million in net operating loss carry forwards (NOLs) in the United States that would begin to expire in 2015. The
stated rationale for the acquisition was that the business benefited from the same end-market and would
improve AGCOs scale in North America. Because GSI products are outside of Agcos core business, I think AGCO
likely bought GSI because it was a quick way to use NOLs in addition to capitalizing on a favorable growth profile.
Through 2014, GSI sales have increased 6.7% cagr and now total $850 million. Although margins for the business
are not disclosed, the acquisition appears to be value enhancing.
MANAGEMENT
Martin Richenhagen joined the company in March 2004 as CEO and became chairman of the board in 2006. He
has excelled by integrating the 20 acquisitions that preceded him and driving efficiencies in distribution and
manufacturing. The GSI acquisition smells a little like empire building because it was not in Agcos core business,
but it has proved worthwhile. Richenhagen plans to stay on at least three more years until he is 65.
BALANCE SHEET
The balance sheet is conservative. Net debt-to-EBITDA is less than 1x my 2015 EBITDA estimate. The next
maturity is a $240 million 4.5% senior note due in 2016, to be followed by a $380 million credit facility maturing
in 2019 at libor +1-2%.
WHY IS THE STOCK CHEAP?
The stock is likely cheap because of the uncertainty of how deep and how long the global downturn in the
agriculture equipment market will last. Farmers are coming off of several strong years of crop prices and cash
receipts on a gross and net basis. Even though their balance sheets are stronger than they have ever been, they
can delay purchasing new equipment if they have young fleets. Moreover, the United States Department of
Agriculture estimates 2014 U.S. farm gross and net receipts were down 5%, and 32%, respectively. And, all the
manufacturers are expecting another down year for unit sales in 2015.
Forecasts
Revenue
One could drive a combine through the difference between Deeres and Agcos 2015 North American market
outlook. Deere forecasts the North American market down 25 to 30%, while Agco forecasts down 5 to 10%. Part
of the gap could be explained by the difference between sales of only high horsepower units versus both low
and high horsepower units if Deeres definition excludes low horsepower. CNH forecasts a flat year for units
under 140 horse power segment but down 15 to 20% for units exceeding 140 horsepower. I am forecasting Agco
North American revenue down 12% in 2015, flat in 2016 and back to 2013 levels by 2019.
Deere, Agco and CNH are all forecasting EMEA down 5 to 10% in 2015. I forecast down 8% organic, flat in 2016
and again back to 2013 peak by 2019. The Euro is down 6% YTD, which I incorporate on top of the organic
decline. For South America, all three manufacturers are forecasting down 10% this year. The BRL/USD has since
weakened 7% YTD, so I am forecasting down 17% in 2015 and the back to 12% above 2013 levels by 2019. The
sales level in 2019 implies 4.5% cagr from 2014 through 2019, in-line with Deeres forecast for Brazil of 4.5%
growth through 2020. I also apply an FX kicker of halfway back to PPP by terminal year.
Margins
I have consolidated margins this year falling to 5.4%, staying flat next year and then increasing with sales growth
to 7.9% in normality by terminal year. The greatest improvement will come from Asia as it emerges from losses
as the new plant in China scales to profitability. In 2012, Agco targeted 10% consolidated operating margins, and
while that level of profitability is achievable, I believe it to be a peak number. With trough margins near 5.5%
and peak of 10%, 7.9% is a fair estimate for a through-cycle normal margin. On a geographic basis, this implies
pre-corporate expense margins of: North America (9%), South America (9%), EMEA (9.5%), and Asia (10%).
Manufacturing plants are located in the United States, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Finland, France, Italy, Germany,
China, and Malaysia. It appears most FX exposure is translational, although Richenhagen said Agco imports
parts from Europe into its Minnesota plant, which will help the North American segment this year.
Use of Cash
Agco initiated a dividend in 2012 and currently has a 15% POR. Management completed a $500 million buy back
in 2014 and initiated another $500 million program running through 2016. Management is maintaining flexibility
by keeping the POR low and by saying they will adjust the buyback based on the stock price. I assume Agco
purchases $250 million per year at current levels.
Capex
Agco increased capex in 2012 and 2013 to meet tier IV engine emission standards and expand capacity. Beyond
Agcos guidance of $325 mln for 2015, I am growing capex at 4.5% cagr to equal 3.6% of sales, which is above
historical averages. I have not seen capacity utilization numbers from Agco, but I do know it will cost money to
maintain market share versus larger competitors looking for growth.
Working capital management appears responsive to market conditions. Agco cut production in 2014 by 15% and
20% in Q4 to maintain reasonable inventory levels. I cut working capital-to-sales in 2015 to 8.5% of sales as
inventory comes down, and then increase it to the historical average of 9% by terminal year.
Bull Case
1. Downturn is short and shallow and Agco continues to increase manufacturing and dealer efficiencies
with greater volumes. Margins increase toward previous goal of 10%.
2. Stock stays low or even falls more over the next 18 months, allowing more shares to be repurchased
before the market rebounds.
3. The Asian market heats up and the Asian operations turn a profit faster than expected.
Bear Case
1. Agriculture downturn is deeper and lasts longer than expected. Unit sales of tractors and combines were
down in 2014 and are expected to decline even further in 2015. Crop prices stay low and the farmers
5
forgo upgrades for several more years. (This would lead to increases in high margin parts sales to offset
some of the lost profits.)
2. Deere and CNH lower prices in South America and Europe to gain market share and erode the profit
base of Agco.
3. Regulations cause crop prices and farm income to dramatically decline, which is a risk in every market
(e.g. the ethanol mandate, subsidies, financing regulations).
4. Reputational risk, especially if Agco fails to protect farmers data.
Valuation
Within two years, Agco will return 11% of the market cap to shareholders if it completes the buyback at current
prices. With dividends of 1% a year, it will return 13% to shareholders while still increasing cash by $400 million,
or $4.60/share. I price AGCO at 9.5x EBIT and 7.9% terminal margins, implying 4% FCF perpetuity growth. Fair
value is 75/share with 55% upside.
Company
Anlayst:
Date:
Currency:
Local/USD
(Last Actual)
2014
est.
2015
est.
2016
est.
2017
est.
2018
4,803
6.5
4.9
0.7
1.9
4%
4.43
10.9
4,294
9.4
6.1
0.7
1.8
13%
3.01
16.1
4,095
8.5
5.6
0.7
1.7
7%
3.57
13.6
3,906
6.4
4.5
0.4
1.5
7%
4.58
10.6
3,620
4.9
3.6
0.0
1.3
10%
5.60
8.7
9,724
8.7%
EBITDA
% of Sales
EBITA
8,405
8,405
8,990
0.0%
7.0%
7.5%
973
701
733
868
1,004
1,127
10.0%
8.3%
8.7%
9.7%
10.4%
10.5%
37%
11.1%
734
454
479
606
735
849
7.5%
5.4%
5.7%
6.7%
7.6%
7.9%
Taxes
NOPAT
Less: Working Capital Addition
Less: Buybacks
Less: Capital Expenditures
Add: Depreciation Amortization
Net Cash Flow
Years
PV Factor
PV of Net Cash Flow
-256
478
-219
-500
-302
280
(261)
-168
286
327
-250
-325
286
325
0.8
0.9
304.0
-177
302
0
-250
-319
293
25
1.8
0.9
21.6
-224
382
-95
0
-333
300
255
2.8
0.8
201.6
-272
463
-61
0
-348
308
362
3.8
0.7
263.5
-314
535
-97
0
-387
316
367
4.8
0.7
246.0
9.5
1,037
5,404
(728)
(33)
650
0
0
(269)
6,061
81
75
404
280
-27
-219
438
(302)
137
58
38
175
24%
37%
728
348
91.2
% of Sales
Tax Rate
3,337
3.9
3.0
-0.2
1.2
11%
6.52
7.4
(Normal)
9,667
10,743
-13.6%
% Change
Discount Rate
est.
2019
Price
Upside
48.5
54%
259
286
0
327
873
(325)
548
29
18
566
125%
198%
472
348
86.0
290
293
0
0
583
(319)
264
27
36
300
63%
99%
502
348
81.3
372
300
0
-95
577
(333)
244
27
17
261
43%
68%
313
348
81.3
455
308
0
-61
702
(348)
354
25
16
370
50%
80%
27
348
81.3
530
316
0
-97
749
(387)
362
22
14
376
44%
70%
-256
348
81.3
Avg
58%
92%
HISTORICALS
Sales
% Change
EBITDA
% of Sales
EBITA
% of Sales
NOPAT
Equity ROR
After tax Debt ROR
WACC
10.0%
3.5%
Debt Differential
-4.5%
2014
80.2%
19.8%
2014
9,724
-10%
973
10%
734
8%
478
2013
10,787
8%
1,160
11%
949
9%
643
2012
9,962
14%
946
9%
765
8%
589
2011
8,773
27%
783
9%
631
7%
603
2010
6,897
4%
501
7%
347
5%
215
2009
6,630
404
280
-27
-219
438
-302
137
58
38
175
24%
37%
728
597
259
45
-105
797
-392
405
58
39
445
47%
69%
203
522
230
4
-90
666
-341
326
58
44
370
48%
63%
505
583
174
-110
80
726
-300
426
30
29
454
72%
75%
745
221
154
19
44
439
-167
272
33
21
292
84%
136%
-277
136
148
-15
84
352
-215
136
43
27
164
65%
103%
-6
3%
108%
20%
4%
151%
24%
3%
148%
24%
3%
173%
25%
2%
108%
14%
3%
146%
23%
398
6%
251
4%
158
Avg
57%
80%
Normal
80%
20%
8.7%
USD, mlns
Revenue
North America
South America
Europe/Africa/Middle East
Asia Pacific
Total Sales
2006
1,283.0
657.0
3,334.4
159.6
5,434
2007
1,488.1
1,090.6
4,067.1
182.3
6,828
2008
1,794.3
1,496.5
4,905.4
228.4
8,425
2009
1,442.7
1,167.1
3,782.1
238.5
6,630
2010
1,489.3
1,753.3
3,422.9
231.1
6,897
2011
2012
1,771
1,872
4,847
284
8,773
2,584
1,856
5,074
448
9,962
2013
2,758
2,040
5,482
508
10,787
2014
est.
2015
2,414
1,663
5,159
488
9,724
2,124
1,381
4,436
463
8,405
est.
2016
2,124
1,381
4,436
463
8,405
est.
2017
est.
2018
2,294
1,519
4,658
519
8,990
2,478
1,701
4,891
597
9,667
Revenue Growth
North America
South America
Europe/Africa/Middle East
Asia Pacific
Total Sales
-20.2%
1.3%
11.6%
-22.0%
-0.3%
16.0%
66.0%
22.0%
14.2%
25.7%
20.6%
37.2%
20.6%
25.3%
23.4%
-19.6%
-22.0%
-22.9%
4.4%
-21.3%
3.2%
50.2%
-9.5%
-3.1%
4.0%
18.9%
6.7%
41.6%
22.8%
27.2%
46.0%
-0.8%
4.7%
57.9%
13.6%
6.7%
9.9%
8.0%
13.3%
8.3%
-12.5%
-18.4%
-5.9%
-4.0%
-9.9%
-12.0%
-17.0%
-14.0%
-5.0%
-13.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8.0%
10.0%
5.0%
12.0%
7.0%
8.0%
12.0%
5.0%
15.0%
7.5%
Change due to FX
North America
South America
Europe/Africa/Middle East
Asia Pacific
Total Sales
0.7%
6.9%
1.9%
0.4%
2.1%
1.0%
15.5%
10.3%
10.9%
8.7%
-0.8%
7.0%
4.5%
0.8%
3.6%
-2.1%
-4.1%
-6.0%
-4.2%
-4.8%
1.9%
14.0%
-4.8%
3.4%
0.3%
0.9%
4.7%
6.4%
13.1%
5.0%
-0.7%
-15.8%
-7.4%
-2.8%
-7.7%
-0.3%
-11.9%
2.3%
-2.1%
-1.2%
-0.9%
-8.8%
-0.7%
-2.6%
-2.4%
0.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
est.
2019
2,676
2,245
5,136
686
10,743
8.0%
32.0%
5.0%
15.0%
11.1%
0.0%
20.0% kicker
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
15.0%
50.5%
11.7%
3.3%
16.9%
21.4%
30.2%
16.2%
24.5%
19.8%
-17.5%
-17.9%
-16.9%
8.6%
-16.5%
1.3%
36.3%
-4.7%
-6.5%
3.7%
18.0%
2.1%
35.2%
9.8%
22.2%
19.8%
10.3%
9.9%
23.2%
12.4%
7.0%
21.8%
5.8%
15.4%
9.5%
-11.5%
-9.6%
-5.2%
-1.4%
-7.5%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-5.0%
-13.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8.0%
10.0%
5.0%
12.0%
7.0%
8.0%
12.0%
5.0%
15.0%
7.5%
8.0%
12.0%
5.0%
15.0%
11.1%
% of Rev
North America
South America
Europe/Africa/Middle East
Asia Pacific
Total Sales
22%
16%
60%
3%
100%
21%
18%
58%
3%
100%
22%
18%
57%
4%
100%
22%
25%
50%
3%
100%
20%
21%
55%
3%
100%
26%
19%
51%
5%
100%
26%
19%
51%
5%
100%
25%
17%
53%
5%
100%
25%
16%
53%
6%
100%
25%
16%
53%
6%
100%
26%
17%
52%
6%
100%
26%
18%
51%
6%
100%
25%
21%
48%
6%
100%
9
134
517
28
688
(72)
(32)
584
584
22
65
222
21
330
(71)
(8)
251
251
50
162
196
26
433
(73)
(13)
347
347
91
143
487
24
745
(91)
(23)
631
631
260
162
475
10
907
(107)
(35)
765
765
326
213
558
1
1,097
(116)
(33)
949
949
219
134
500
(12)
842
(118)
10
734
734
127
90
355
572
(101)
(17)
454
454
138
90
355
14
597
(101)
(17)
479
479
184
121
396
31
732
(108)
(18)
606
606
223
153
440
54
870
(116)
(19)
735
735
241
202
488
69
999
(129)
(21)
849
849
24%
12%
61%
3%
100%
-2.9%
6.9%
8.4%
12.7%
5.7%
-0.8%
-0.1%
4.8%
-2.4%
9.3%
9.8%
10.9%
7.1%
-0.7%
-0.4%
6.0%
0.5%
9.0%
10.5%
12.4%
8.2%
-0.9%
-0.4%
6.9%
1.5%
5.5%
5.9%
8.9%
5.0%
-1.1%
-0.1%
3.8%
3.3%
9.2%
5.7%
11.1%
6.3%
-1.1%
-0.2%
5.0%
5.1%
7.6%
10.0%
8.4%
8.5%
-1.0%
-0.3%
7.2%
10.1%
8.7%
9.4%
2.3%
9.1%
-1.1%
-0.3%
7.7%
11.8%
10.4%
10.2%
0.1%
10.2%
-1.1%
-0.3%
8.8%
9.1%
8.1%
9.7%
-2.4%
8.7%
-1.2%
0.1%
7.5%
6.0%
6.5%
8.0%
0.0%
6.8%
-1.2%
-0.2%
5.4%
6.5%
6.5%
8.0%
3.0%
7.1%
-1.2%
-0.2%
5.7%
8.0%
8.0%
8.5%
6.0%
8.1%
-1.2%
-0.2%
6.7%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
-1.2%
-0.2%
7.6%
9.0%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
9.3%
-1.2%
-0.2%
7.9%
% of Profit
North America
South America
Europe/Africa/Middle East
Asia Pacific
Segment Income
-12.3%
14.7%
91.0%
6.6%
100.0%
-7.4%
21.0%
82.3%
4.1%
100.0%
1.2%
19.5%
75.1%
4.1%
100.0%
6.6%
19.6%
67.4%
6.4%
100.0%
11.4%
37.4%
45.2%
5.9%
100.0%
12.2%
19.2%
65.4%
3.2%
100.0%
28.7%
17.8%
52.4%
1.1%
100.0%
29.7%
19.4%
50.9%
0.0%
100.0%
26.0%
15.9%
59.4%
-1.4%
100.0%
22.3%
15.7%
62.0%
0.0%
100.0%
23.1%
15.0%
59.5%
2.3%
100.0%
25.1%
16.6%
54.1%
4.3%
100.0%
25.6%
17.6%
50.6%
6.2%
100.0%
24.1%
20.2%
48.8%
6.9%
100.0%
5,779
1,275
723
38
610
345
8,770
5,882
1,286
963
728
638
462
9,959
6,491
1,349
1,001
771
652
521
10,785
Tractors
Replacement Parts
Other Machinery
Grain Storage and Protein Production systems
Combines
Application Equipment
Total Sales
cagr
07-'14
5.7%
13.3%
5.5%
9.1%
6.8%
07-'14
4.9%
8.5%
8.9%
6.5%
7.9%
-1.0%
-0.2%
6.6%
11-'14
9.0%
8.7%
9.8%
2.1%
9.1%
-1.1%
-0.2%
7.8%
851
Revenue
2007
6,828
2008
8,425
23.4%
-21.3%
4.0%
27.2%
13.6%
8.3%
-9.9%
(5,637)
1,191
(6,925)
1,500
(5,558)
1,073
(5,638)
1,259
(6,997)
1,776
(7,839)
2,123
(8,396)
2,391
(7,657)
2,066
17.4%
17.8%
16.2%
18.3%
20.2%
21.3%
22.2%
21.3%
(626)
(721)
(630)
(692)
(869)
(1,041)
(1,089)
(995)
-9.2%
-8.6%
-9.5%
-10.0%
-9.9%
-10.5%
-10.1%
-10.2%
(155)
(195)
(192)
(220)
(276)
(317)
(353)
(337)
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.9%
-3.2%
-3.1%
-3.2%
-3.3%
-3.5%
544
(134)
731
(147)
398
(148)
501
(154)
783
(152)
946
(181)
1,160
(212)
973
(239)
Growth
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
% of Rev
SG&A
% of Rev
EBITDA
Depreciation
% of Rev
EBITA
% of sales
(Interest Expense)/income
JV w/ Rabobank, equity method
Amortization of Intangibles
(other expenses)/income
Pre-tax Income
Taxes
Tax Rate
Minority Interest (income)/loss
Net Income
EPS
Dividends
payout %
-2%
-2%
2009
6,630
-2%
2010
6,897
-2%
2011
8,773
-2%
2012
9,962
-2%
2013
10,787
-2%
2014
9,724
-2%
est.
2015
8,405
est.
2016
8,405
est.
2017
8,990
est.
2018
9,667
est.
2019
10,743
-13.6%
0.0%
7.0%
7.5%
11.1%
701
(247)
733
(254)
868
(262)
1,004
(269)
1,127
(278)
-2%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-2%
410
584
251
347
631
765
949
734
454
479
606
735
849
6.0%
6.9%
3.8%
5.0%
7.2%
7.7%
8.8%
7.5%
5.4%
5.7%
6.7%
7.6%
7.9%
(24)
30
(18)
(41)
358
(111)
-34.0%
0
246
2.55
0.00
(33)
39
(19)
(20)
551
(165)
-32.2%
0
386
3.95
0.00
(43)
38
(18)
(35)
192
(57)
-36.7%
0
136
1.44
0.00
(33)
50
(18)
(20)
325
(104)
-38.0%
0
221
2.29
0.00
(30)
49
(22)
(19)
609
(25)
-4.4%
(2)
583
5.94
0.00
(58)
54
(49)
(57)
654
(138)
-23.0%
6
522
5.30
0.00
(58)
48
(48)
(40)
851
(259)
-32.2%
5
597
6.01
0.40
(58)
53
(41)
(96)
592
(188)
-34.8%
6
404
4.43
0.44
(29)
54
(40)
(60)
379
(120)
-37%
0
259
3.01
0.48
(27)
55
(39)
(40)
429
(138)
-37%
0
290
3.57
0.54
(27)
56
(38)
(40)
557
(185)
-37%
0
372
4.58
0.69
(25)
57
(38)
(40)
689
(234)
-37%
0
455
5.60
0.84
(22)
58
(38)
(40)
807
(277)
-37%
0
530
6.52
0.98
0.0
0.0%
0.0%
6.7%
9.9%
15.9%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
96.6
0.0
97.7
1.1%
0.0
94.1
-3.7%
0.0
96.4
2.4%
98.1
1.8%
98.6
0.5%
99.4
0.8%
91.2
-8.2%
86.0
-5.7%
81.3
-5.5%
81.3
0.0%
81.3
0.0%
81.3
0.0%
582
403
294
697
114
0
753
666
666
4,788
2,043
1,377
546
0
625
625
79
6
811
666
587
4,955
2,020
1,433
653
193
454
647
(6)
8
943
666
634
5,062
2,401
1,767
720
0
443
443
(277)
1
1,223
666
633
5,437
2,659
2,027
724
60
1,410
1,470
745
36
1,223
1,195
1,195
7,257
3,031
1,837
781
251
1,035
1,286
505
33
1,406
1,195
1,192
7,722
3,482
2,289
1,047
312
938
1,250
203
35
1,602
1,195
1,179
8,439
4,045
2,866
364
94
998
1,092
728
48
1,530
1,195
1,193
7,396
3,497
2,304
620
590
779
1,065
1,347
1,092
472
48
1,530
1,195
1,193
7,364
3,465
2,272
1,092
502
48
1,530
1,195
1,193
7,360
3,461
2,269
1,092
313
48
1,530
1,195
1,193
7,676
3,777
2,585
1,092
27
48
1,530
1,195
1,193
8,063
4,164
2,971
1,092
(256)
48
1,530
1,195
1,193
8,514
4,615
3,422
10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
est.
2015
est.
2016
est.
2017
est.
2018
est.
2019
18
116
134
27
0
0.0%
459
6.7%
98
(141)
-2.1%
0
8
(121)
(86)
6
0
0
0
(3)
0
14
0
19
127
147
47
0
0.0%
481
5.7%
(288)
(251)
-3.0%
0
0
37
1
5
0
0
0
(33)
0
(116)
(3)
18
130
148
(15)
0
0.0%
611
9.2%
84
(215)
-3.2%
0
0
(61)
(17)
3
1
0
0
37
0
47
(5)
18
136
154
19
0
0.0%
488
7.1%
44
(167)
-2.4%
0
1
(99)
(82)
1
0
(25)
0
0
0
12
(12)
22
152
174
(110)
1,457
16.6%
793
9.0%
80
(300)
-3.4%
0
0
689
(1,018)
2
(2)
(35)
(8)
0
0
(29)
(6)
49
181
230
4
1,491
15.0%
961
9.6%
(90)
(341)
-3.4%
0
(18)
(223)
(3)
1
(1)
(20)
(16)
0
0
7
3
48
212
259
45
1,705
15.8%
970
9.0%
(105)
(392)
-3.6%
(39)
(1)
(59)
(10)
3
(3)
0
(10)
0
0
(16)
(6)
41
239
280
(27)
1,924
19.8%
1,042
10.7%
(219)
(302)
-3.1%
(41)
(500)
(102)
(130)
3
(6)
(4)
0
0
0
(27)
(13)
40
247
286
0
1,597
19.0%
714
8.5%
327
(325)
-3.9%
(41)
(250)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
39
254
293
0
1,597
19.0%
714
8.5%
0
(319)
-3.8%
(44)
(250)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
262
300
0
1,691
18.8%
809
9.0%
(95)
(333)
-3.7%
(56)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
269
308
0
1,752
18.1%
870
9.0%
(61)
(348)
-3.6%
(68)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
278
316
0
1,849
17.2%
967
9.0%
(97)
(387)
-3.6%
(79)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Working Capital
Current Assets (minus cash)
2,139
Current Liabilities (minus debt)
1,681
Current Assets
2,722
Current Liabilities
2,083
Current Assets/Current Liabilities, adj.
1.3
Inventory
1,134
days
73.4
Accounts Receivable
766
days
41.0
Accounts Payable
827
days
53.6
Trade Working Capital
1,074
% of sales
15.7%
Trade W/C Days
61
days
Fixed Asset Turnover
9.1
PP&E/Depreciation
5.6
2,459
1,978
3,005
1,979
1.2
1,390
66.5
816
34.3
1,027
48.9
1,178
14.0%
52
9
10.4
5.5
2,136
1,525
2,789
1,718
1.4
1,187
84.6
732
42.6
644
54.9
1,275
19.2%
72
(20)
7.0
6.4
2,401
1,913
3,121
1,913
1.3
1,234
78.4
909
43.4
683
43.0
1,459
21.2%
79
(6)
5.6
7.9
2,938
2,145
3,663
2,206
1.4
1,560
72.9
994
39.6
937
42.2
1,617
18.4%
70
9
7.2
8.0
3,173
2,213
3,955
2,464
1.4
1,703
76.0
925
35.2
888
42.5
1,739
17.5%
69
2
7.1
7.8
3,470
2,500
4,517
2,812
1.4
2,016
80.8
941
31.6
960
40.2
1,996
18.5%
72
(4)
6.7
7.6
3,164
2,123
3,528
2,217
1.5
1,750
89.8
964
35.7
670
38.9
2,044
21.0%
87
(14)
6.4
6.4
Returns
ROE
ROA
ROCE
ROCE, Operating (no goodwill)
Net Debt/EBITDA
Net Debt/EBITA
EBITA/ Interest Expense
12%
5%
14%
22%
0.2
0.3
17.0
19%
8%
20%
31%
0.1
0.1
17.6
6%
3%
7%
10%
(0.0)
(0.0)
5.8
9%
4%
9%
13%
(0.6)
(0.8)
10.4
20%
9%
19%
30%
1.0
1.2
20.9
16%
7%
17%
25%
0.5
0.7
13.3
16%
7%
17%
25%
0.2
0.2
16.4
11%
5%
13%
19%
0.7
1.0
12.6
7%
4%
8%
13%
0.7
1.0
15.6
8%
4%
9%
13%
0.7
1.0
18.0
10%
5%
11%
16%
0.4
0.5
22.6
11%
6%
13%
19%
0.0
0.0
29.4
12%
6%
14%
21%
(0.2)
(0.3)
38.4
Interest Income
% of cash
Interest Expense
% of debt
Net Interest (expense)/income
26
4.5%
(50.5)
0.0%
(24.1)
34
6.3%
(67.4)
0.0%
(33.2)
22
3.4%
(65.7)
0.0%
(43.3)
31
4.3%
(64.0)
0.0%
(33.3)
29
4.0%
(59.0)
0.0%
(30.2)
20
2.6%
(77.7)
-6.0%
(57.6)
21
2.0%
(78.8)
-6.3%
(58.0)
16
1.5%
(54.6)
-5.0%
(38.9)
4
1.0%
(32.8)
-3.00%
(29.1)
6
1.0%
(32.8)
-3.00%
(26.6)
6
1.0%
(32.8)
-3.00%
(26.9)
8
1.0%
(32.8)
-3.00%
(25.0)
11
1.0%
(32.8)
-3.00%
(22.1)
48.0
(250)
(5.2)
52.8
(250)
(4.7)
58.1
0
0.0
63.9
0
0.0
70.3
0
0.0
Buyback
Price
Total Amount
Number of shares, implied
11
12
13
14