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State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

10th April 2015

State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

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About CoinDesk

World leader in digital currency news, prices and information


The Bitcoin Price Index serves as an industry reference point
International team headquartered in London
Editors based in London, New York, San Francisco and Tokyo

State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

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State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

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State of Bitcoin Credits

Creator and Producer: Garrick Hileman (@GarrickHileman)


Statistical assistance:

Garrick Hileman

State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

Danqing Ying (@DanqingYing)

Danqing Ying

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Contents

Summary and Adoption


Dashboard
Valuation
Media
VC Investment
Commerce
Technology
Regulation and Macro

State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

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Summary and
Adoption Dashboard

State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

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Q1 2015 Summary
Q1 was bitcoins largest VC
investment quarter yet with $226m
raised; all-time bitcoin VC investment
now totals $676m

Sustained pressure on bitcoins price,


which is due to the current demandsupply imbalances, is winnowing the
mining and exchange sectors

Bitcoins price briefly dropped to


$177 in January 2015, and is down
24% so far in 2015

21 Inc, which announced $116m in


new funding, surpassed Coinbase as
the best-capitalized bitcoin startup

Blockchains total wallets passed three


million; merchant adoption slowed due
to bitcoins underwhelming value
proposition for mainstream consumers

Improved regulatory clarity (ie NY


BitLicense revisions, UKs favorable
posture) are building industry
confidence and attracting Wall Street

State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

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Key Bitcoin Adoption Metrics

Commerce
Wallets
Merchants
Merchants annual revenue ($bn)
ATMs
Unique bitcoin addresses
Industry
All-time VC investment ($m)
Number of VC-backed startups
Media
Mainstream media mentions
Technology
Network hash rate (billion/second)
Github no. of updated repositories
Valuation
Bitcoin market capitalization ($bn)

Quarterly
Dec-14

Mar-15

Q/Q

Last 12 Months
Mar-14

8,457,207
88,000
180
374
203,189

7,396,772
82,000
180
342
157,377

14%
7%
0%
9%
29%

4,448,142
52,704
2
47
137,342

2x
2x
78x
8x
1x

$676
103

$447
89

51%
16%

$164
47

4x
2x

458

580

-10%

2,594

-82%

346,028,956
27,857

313,142,289
23,249

11%
20%

41,813,922
9,915

8x
3x

$3.4

$4.3

-21%

$5.3

-36%

Data sources and notes: CoinDesk, Blockchain.info, BitcoinPulse, Github, Coin ATM Radar. Figures are cumulative from start of records, except unique
bitcoin addresses and media mentions, which are figures for the quarter ending that month.

State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

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Price and Valuation

State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

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CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index


Q1 & YTD by the Numbers
Q1 Price Summary
31st Dec Close

$319.70

31st Mar Close

$243.39

Q1/Q4 Close

-23.9%

31st Mar Market Cap

$3.4bn

YTD Price Summary


High (2nd Jan)

$314.59

Low (14th Jan)

$177.28

YTD High-Low

-43.6%

Average

$250.68

Median

$246.85
Source: CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, daily data collected at 00:00 UTC

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10

Bitcoins Price in Q1 Remained Volatile Amid


a Mix of Positive and Negative News
$330
$310

5th Jan

10th Mar

Bitstamp
suffers $5m
hot wallet
hack

Bitcoin startup 21
Inc announces
$116m raised,
all-star investor
roster

$290
$270

25th Jan

4th Feb

Coinbase
launches US
bitcoin
exchange

Ross Ulbricht
found guilty in NY
court of operating
Silk Road; Ben
Lawsky releases
revised NY
BitLicense

$250

18th Mar
UK Chancellor
Osborne announces
favorable regulatory
environment and
research investment

$230
$210
$190

14th Jan
Bitcoins price
plunges,
breaks $200
mark

20th Jan
Mainstream financial
institutions join
Coinbase's record
$75m funding round

$170
$150
1-Jan

8-Jan

9th Feb

15-Jan

22-Jan

29-Jan

5-Feb

Hong Kong's
MyCoin
disappears with
up to $387m,
reports claim
12-Feb

19-Feb

26-Feb

5-Mar

12-Mar

19-Mar

26-Mar

Source: CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, daily data collected at 00:00 UTC

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11

Bitcoins Price Decline Has Not Stopped Exchange


Trading Volume From Trending Up
7

25

6
20

BTC Millions

$ Billions

Monthly Bitcoin Trading Volume

5
15

10

2
5
1

0
Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Monthly bitcoin trading volume (USD)

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Monthly bitcoin trading volume (BTC)

Data sources: Blockchain, CoinDesk, Bitcoinity

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12

Mining

Exchanges

Industry Rationalization: Bitcoins Price Plunge, Other


Issues are Thinning the Ranks of Exchanges and Mining

Aquifer LLC
A number of well-known exchanges and mining operators have recently
gone bankrupt or shuttered operations for various reasons
Source: CoinDesk

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13

Miners Revenue and Transaction Fee (USD)

5.0

30

4.5
25

4.0
3.5

20

$ Thousands

$ Millions

Diminishing Incentives to Mine Bitcoins Will Result in


Further Mining Sector Consolidation

3.0
15

2.5
2.0

10

1.5
1.0

0.5
0.0
01/01/2014

0
01/04/2014

30/06/2014
Miners Revenue

28/09/2014

27/12/2014

Transaction Fee

While mining is the only bitcoin sector to date to generate significant revenues,
at current (or lower) price levels, further sector consolidation is anticipated
Data source: Blockchain. Note: Miners revenue = (number of bitcoins mined per day + transaction fees) * market price.

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14

Bitcoin Primarily Functions as a Store of Value,


Less Frequently Used as a Medium of Exchange
Total Trading Volume vs Transaction Ratio
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Data sources: Bitcoinity, Blockchain

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15

Peak Altcoin? For the First Time, Quarter-overQuarter Altcoin Growth Was Flat
700

25%
23%

594

590

600

20%
483

500

15%

400

347

300
9%

216
7%

200

10%

9%
8%

7%
5%

100

64

0%
Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14
Total Number of Altcoins

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Altcoin Market Cap Share (%)

*Note: Altcoin market cap share is calculated by dividing the sum of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrency market caps by all cryptocurrency market caps (including
bitcoin). For example, a market value share of 7% for altcoins indicates that bitcoin by itself represents 93% of the market cap of all cryptocurrencies combined.

Data source: CoinMarketCap

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Bitcoins Market Cap is 14x Larger Than the Next


Altcoin, up 6x from End of 2014
Rank

Name

Market Cap

Bitcoin

$ 3,428,547,561

Ripple

$ 245,984,620

Litecoin

$ 62,695,671

Dash

$ 20,785,772

BitShares

$ 16,084,946

Dogecoin

$ 12,518,429

Stellar

$ 12,222,510

Nxt

$ 9,887,171

MaidSafeCoin

$ 8,090,823

10

Paycoin

$ 7,683,946

Data source: CoinMarketCap data as of 1st Apr 2015

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17

Media

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18

Q1 Negative News
Bitstamp claims at least $5m lost in hot
wallet hack

Hong Kong's MyCoin disappears


with an initially reported $387m

Steady stories of bitcoin-related crime


undermine mainstream user trust in bitcoin

Bitcoin mining firm CoinTerra heads for


Chapter 7 bankruptcy battle amid
acrimonious claims on both legal sides

Source: CoinDesk

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19

Q1 Positive News

Coinbase's record $75m funding round,


opening of US-based exchange

Bitcoin startup 21 Inc announces $116m


raised, with all-star VC backing

Blockchain reports its total number of


wallets passes three million

Bitcoin Core 0.10 gives developers simplified


tools and sophisticated fee suggestions
Source: CoinDesk

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20

Q1 Most-Viewed CoinDesk Articles: Relative Interest


in Bitcoins Price Articles Continues to Decline
CoinDesks Top 10 Most Viewed Stories in Q1
Rank Title

Date

Roger Ver Denied US Visa to Attend Miami Bitcoin Conference

7th Jan

IBM Reveals Proof of Concept for Blockchain-Powered Internet of Things 17th Jan

Bitstamp Claims $5 Million Lost in Hot Wallet Hack

5th Jan

Bitcoin Price Continues to Fall, Breaks $200 Mark

14th Jan

State of Bitcoin 2015: Ecosystem Grows Despite Price Decline

7th Jan

Research: Hackers Could Install Backdoor in Bitcoin Cold Storage

16th Jan

Hong Kong's MyCoin Disappears with up to $387 Million, Reports Claim

9th Feb

Bitcoin Price Crashes Through $250 Mark

13th Jan

Apple Approves iOS Game That Tips Players in Bitcoin

8th Jan

10

Goldman Sachs Report Says Bitcoin Could Shape Future of Finance'

11th Mar

Source: CoinDesk top 10 Q1 stories based on pageviews

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21

Mainstream Bitcoin Media Coverage Dropped


Quarter-Over-Quarter
News Published Mentioning Bitcoin
78

FT

41

73
76

NYT

127

WSJ

156

180

Sina

235
0

50

100
Q1 2015

150

200

250

Q4 2014

Note: Numbers of stories obtained by searching bitcoin on respective publishers websites


Sources: Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Sina websites

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22

Bitcoin Price Continues to be the Top Search Term;


Utorrent Mining Malware Scare Rising
Related Searches: Top

Related Searches: Rising

Past 90
Days

Past 12
Months

Source: Google Trends data as of 1st Jan 2015

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23

VC Investment

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24

Two Biggest Bitcoin VC Deals in Q1

$116m $75m
(Series A) March 2015*

(Series C) January 2015

*Note: The precise timing of when the $116m was raised, or whether it was raised in various individual stages, has not been revealed.
Source: CoinDesk

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25

Both Deals Broke the Previous Record for


Largest Single VC Investment Round

Millions

Top Five All-Time VC Investment Deals


$120

$116

The Coinbase $75m


raise does sound like
a Pre-IPO round. A
Bitcoin IPO such as
Coinbase could
trigger mainstream
merchant adoption

$100

$80

$75

$60

$40

$31

$30

$25

- Bernard Lunn,
Bank Innovation

$20

$0

Sources: CoinDesk, Crunchbase, Bank Innovation

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26

Bitcoins $121 Million Question


Is it a supercharged mining operation?
Is it a hardware wallet?

Matthew Pauker
CEO, 21 Inc

No, its bitcoins newest universal, 21 Inc!*


*No announcement has been made on 21 Incs exact business strategy beyond confirmation that it meets CoinDesks definition of a universal bitcoin company.
Sources: CoinDesk, Crunchbase. Superman artwork courtesy of Tattoosales.com, trademark owned by DC Comics

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27

Q1 Set a Record for Bitcoin Venture Capital Investment,


Nearly Doubling Q4 2014
Millions

Quarterly Total VC Investment (USD Millions)


$250
$229

$200

$150

$133

$100

$84
$66

$66

$50

$0
Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Note: The precise timing of when 21 Inc raised the $116m it announced in Q1 is unclear; 21 Incs full $116m is included in the Q1 2015 total.
Data sources: CoinDesk, CrunchBase

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28

All-Time Bitcoin Venture Capital Investment Increased


51% from End of 2014 to $676m
Q1 2015 bitcoin VC investment:

Total VC investment in
cryptocurrency startups to date:

$229m $676m
Q4 2014 bitcoin VC investment:

Increase in total to-date VC


investment from end of Q4:

$133m +51%
Data sources: CoinDesk, CrunchBase

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29

Bitcoin VC Investment Projected to Continue


Outpacing Early-Stage Internet Investment
$ Millions

Bitcoin vs early Internet VC investment ($ millions)


1000

$916

900
800
700

$638

600
500
400

$349
$250

300
200
100
0

2014 Bitcoin

1995 Internet

2015 Bitcoin - projected 1996 Internet

Note: Internet figures include only first sequence venture deals. All figures unadjusted for inflation, changes in the cost of launching a startup over last
two decades, etc. Further methodology discussion.
Data sources: CoinDesk, PricewaterhouseCoopers

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30

US Continues to Dominate Bitcoin VC Investment;


First VC Funded Africa-Based Startup in Q1
$ Invested as of Q1

Africa 0%

Europe
18%

Asia 6%
Middle
East 2%
Latin
America
1%

US &
Canada
73%

$ Invested as of Q4 2014
Regions

Q1
($m)

Q4
($m)

Q/Q
($m)

Q/Q

US &
Canada

492.3

289.7

202.6

70%

Europe

119.1

99.2

19.9

20%

Asia

42.1

41.0

1.1

3%

Middle
East

14.0

11.1

2.9

26%

Latin
America

7.5

6.0

1.5

25%

Africa

1.1

0.0

1.1

N.A.

Total

676.1

447.0

229.1

51%

Europe
22%

Africa 0%
Asia 9%

US &
Canada
65%

Middle
East 3%
Latin
America
1%

US & Canada had the largest Q/Q% increase in investment


Asia saw almost no investment in Q1
Note: $ invested represents all-time total bitcoin VC investment at the end of each quarter.
Data sources: CoinDesk (www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/), CrunchBase

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Startups in 4 New Countries Received VC Investments;


22 Countries in Total Have a VC-Backed Bitcoin Startup

Barbados

France

Kenya

Switzerland
Data source: CoinDesk (www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)

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32

US-Based Bitcoin Venture Capital Investment Nearly


2x Greater Than Rest of the World Combined

Millions

Total Funding by Country (USD Millions)


$500

$400

$300

$200

$100

Sources: CoinDesk (www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/), CrunchBase

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United States

United Kingdom

The Netherlands

Sweden

China

Israel

South Korea

Canada

Argentina

France

Singapore

Japan

Barbados

Mexico

Kenya

Panama

Switzerland

Australia

Denmark

Germany

India

Luxembourg

$0

33

Silicon Valley Pulling Away: Share of All-Time Bitcoin


VC Investment Jumped from 45% in Q4 to 59% in Q1
$ Invested

No. of Companies

Location
Rest of
World
41%

Silicon
Valley
59%

Value ($m)

No. of
companies

Silicon Valley

$400.0

30

Rest of World

$276.1

73

Total

$676.1

103

Silicon Valley
29%
Rest of World
71%

87% of the total Q1 bitcoin VC funding went to Silicon Valley-based startups


Total number of VC-backed bitcoin companies increased from 89 in Q4 2014
to 103 in Q1, a 16% increase
Note: Prior State of Bitcoin data may differ due to new funding information obtained.
Date sources: CoinDesk (www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/), CrunchBase

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Q1 Deal Summary: Acquisitions and Reverse


Merger Activity Accelerates
Acquisitions
Jan 2015
Jan 2015

Apr 2015

Reverse Mergers
Jan 2015

Loma Vista Capital


MGT Capital
Investment

Feb 2015
Source: CoinDesk

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35

Keeping Bitcoins Size in Perspective FinTech Investments Dwarfed Bitcoin in 2014

FinTech

216

Bitcoin

FinTech

100

$3bn invested in 2014

Deals

Deals

Biggest Deal

Biggest Deal

$150m

$31m*
$0.3bn
invested in
2014

Data sources: CoinDesk, Medium (https://medium.com/@UnitedVentures/fintech-key-trends-2014-5124b6088677)


*Note: All data are 2014 only.

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The Bitcoin Startup Ecosystem:


Seven Different Bitcoin Company Categories
Infrastructure

Wallets
Exchanges
Universal

Payment
Processing

Source: CoinDesk

State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

Financial
Services

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37

A New Ecosystem Category Takes Shape:


Infrastructure
Bitcoin infrastructure companies build security tools, develop protocol
enhancements and provide APIs for other bitcoin businesses to build on

The eight companies in the infrastructure category have raised a combined


$56m to date
Sources: CoinDesk

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38

Ecosystem Sector Trends: Universals Raised Most


Funding in Q1, Followed by Mining and Infrastructure
Millions

Q1 VC Investment by Ecosystem Category (USD Millions)


$200

$191.0

$160

$120

$80

$40
$20.0
$1.1

$2.0

Wallet

Exchange

$3.8

$5.0

$6.1

$0
Payment Processor

Financial Services

Infrastructure

Mining

Universal

Data sources: CoinDesk (www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/), CrunchBase

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39

Universals Are Pulling Away From Other Sectors in


Total VC Investment

Millions

2013 to 2015 VC Investment by Ecosystem Category (USD Millions)


$300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0
Q3 2013
Payment Processor

Q4 2013
Exchange

Q1 2014
Universal

Q2 2014
Mining

Q3 2014
Financial Services

Q4 2014
Wallet

Q1 2015
Infrastructure

Data source: CoinDesk

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40

Universals Now Command Nearly 40% of VC


Investment; Mining and Wallets at 14% Each
$ Invested as of Q1

$ Invested as of Q4 2014
Sector

Q1
($m)

Q4
($m)

Q/Q
($m)

Q/Q

Payment
Processor

55.4

54.3

1.1

2%

Infrastructure

55.7

49.6

6.1

12%

Exchange
Financial
Services
Mining
Universal
Wallet
Total

65.8

62.0

3.8

6%

48.5

43.5

5.0

12%

96.5
262.6
91.6
676.1

76.5
71.6
89.6
447.3

20.0
191.0
2.0
229.0

26%
267%
2%
51%

Wallet
20%

Payment
Processor
12%
Infrastructure
11%

Universal
16%

Exchange
14%
Mining
17%

Financial
Services
10%

83% of Q1 investment was made in Universals


The number of Universals also continues to climb, now up to 10
Note: $ invested represents all-time total bitcoin VC investment at the end of each respective quarter.
Data Sources: CoinDesk (www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/), CrunchBase

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41

Q1 2015 Investment Rounds in Bitcoin Startups


Close Date

Company

Size ($m)

Round

Select Investors

Headquartered

Mar-15

PeerNova

5.00

First

OverStock

San Jose

Mar-15

Bitt

1.50

Seed

Avatar Capital

Christ Church

Mar-15

TabTrader

0.07

Seed

Rockstart

Amsterdam

Mar-15

Coinigy

0.10

Seed

Undisclosed

Milwaukee

Mar-15

21 Inc

116.00

First

Andreessen Horowitz, Data


Collective, Khosla Ventures

San Francisco

Mar-15

ShapeShift

0.53

Seed

Barry Silbert and Roger Ver

Zug

Feb-15

Ledger

1.50

Seed

XAnge Private Equity, Hi-Pay (HiMedia group), Fred Potter

Paris

Feb-15

BitPesa

1.10

Second

Pantera Capital, Bitcoin Opportunity


Corp, Crypto Currency Partners

Nairobi

Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)

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Q1 2015 Investment Rounds in Bitcoin Startups


(contd.)
Close Date

Company

Size ($m)

Round

Select Investors

Headquartered

Feb-15

HashRabbit

0.50

Seed

Draper Associates,
VegasTechFund

San Francisco

Feb-15

KnCMiner

15.00

Second

Accel Partners, GP Bullhound,


Creandum, Martin Wattin

Stockholm

Feb-15

NeuCoin

1.25

Seed

Patrik Stymne, Emil Michael,


Henrik Kjellberg

Paris

Feb-15

Ziftr

0.85

Seed

10x Venture Partners

Milford

Feb-15

Bonafide
(Bonifide.io)

0.85

Seed

Quest Venture Partners, Crypto


Currency Partners

New York

Jan-15

BitFlyer

1.10

Seed

Bitcoin Opportunity Corp, RSP


Fund No. 5, GMO Venture Partners

Tokyo

Jan-15

Colu

2.50

Seed

Aleph, Spark Capital, Bitcoin


Opportunity Corp, Box Group

Tel Aviv

Jan-15

Anycoin Direct

0.56

Seed

Undisclosed

Veghel

Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)

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Q1 2015 Investment Rounds in Bitcoin Startups


(contd.)
Close Date

Company

Size ($m)

Round

Select Investors

Headquartered

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE),


San Francisco
USAA, BBVA, DoCoMo

Jan-15

Coinbase

75.00

Third

Jan-15

TrustAtom

0.10

Seed

Brian Cartmell, Vinny Lingham

Vancouver

Jan-15

Ciphrex

0.50

First

Undisclosed

San Diego

Jan-15

BlockCypher

3.10

Seed

Tim Draper, AME Cloud Ventures,


Boost VC, 500 Startups

San Mateo

Jan-15

Airbitz

0.03

Seed

Plug and Play Tech Center

San Diego

Jan-15

LibertyX

0.40

Seed

Project 11

Boston

Jan-15

GetGems

0.40

Seed

Magma VC

Unknown

Jan-15

CoinOutlet

0.10

Seed

BitcoinShop

New York

Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)

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Commerce

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Everyday Items Rank Above Consumer Tech on


Overstocks List of Most Often Bought with Bitcoin

1. Sheets

6. Cables and
tools

2. Donations
to non-profits

3. Headphones

4. Cases and
holders

7. Mattresses

8. Coffee tables

9. A/V cables

5. Area rugs

10. Fashion
sunglasses

Sources: CoinDesk, Overstock

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Growth of New Bitcoin-Accepting Merchants


Plummeted in Q1, Continuing Downward Trend
Number of New Bitcoin-Accepting Businesses Added Each Quarter
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Sources: CoinDesk, CoinBase, BitPay, International Business Times

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More than 88,000 Merchants Now Accept Bitcoin, up


from 82,000 in Q4 (+7%)

50K

38K
Data sources: Coinbase, BitPay

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Bitcoin-Accepting Merchant Forecast Slashed to


Approximately 120,000 by End of 2015
140,000
R = 0.95861

120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Total merchants

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Forecasted merchants

Data sources and notes: Total current merchants based on data from Coinbase and BitPay. Historical Coinbase data provided by
BitcoinPulse. BitPay historical data between new merchant press release announcements of 10,000 (16th Sep 2013), 20,000 (13th Jan
2014) and 30,000 (28th May 2014), respectively, calculated using linear interpolation.

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Bitcoins Lack of Use in Commerce is Not Just a


Chicken and Egg Problem
Merchants generally welcome bitcoin adoption
Lack of consumer adoption is the fundamental problem
Consumers need compelling reasons to use the volatile
and still relatively hard to acquire bitcoin over alternatives

Steve Beauregard,
CEO of GoCoin

"I believe merchants have been widely


disappointed by the number of transactions
they see in bitcoin. Most merchants have
taken a passive approach to integrating
bitcoin as a payment method, instead of
strategically testing and optimizing checkout
flows to encourage consumer adoption."

Sources: Pantera Capital, ZepChain, CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/is-bitcoins-merchant-appeal-fading/)

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CoinCenters Public Sentiment Survey Indicates Low


Bitcoin Awareness in US

People
who are
familiar
with
bitcoin
are more
likely to
think it is
useful

64.3%
of the general American population
are not familiar at all with bitcoin

6.2%
of the general American population
say they have used bitcoin

Distrust in
bitcoin
decreases
from 50%
to 37% as
familiarity
with
bitcoin
increases

53.1%
of those who are very familiar with
But the distrust in bitcoin is
bitcoin have never used it
similar (47%) among those
who frequently use bitcoin
and those who never use
Source: CoinCenter

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Blockchains Quarterly New Wallet Growth Rate


Has Been Remarkably Consistent

Thousands

No. of New Wallets Added Each Quarter


600
515
481

500

481
451

454

Dec-2014

Mar-2015

400
343
300

200
120
100

0
Sep-2013

Dec-2013

Mar-2014

Jun-2014

Sep-2014

Data Source: Blockchain.info

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Millions

Forecast for Total Bitcoin Wallets by End of 2015


Maintained at 12 million
14
R = 0.98069

12

10

0
Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Total Wallets

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Forecasted Wallets

Data Sources and notes: total wallets based on data from Blockchain.info, MultiBit, Coinbase, Andreas Schildbach (Android Bitcoin
Wallet developer). Historical Coinbase data provided by BitcoinPulse.

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The Five Types of Bitcoin User


1. People who want a cheap, fast, global online payment experience
2. People who want access to a new suite of consumer payment
applications

3. People who want to connect to the global economy for the first time
4. People who believe bitcoin is an attractive investment
5. People who value financial privacy
Sources: CoinDesk, Coinbase Blog

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Bitcoin Transactions Have Been Rising; Average of


10,000 Daily Transactions by Popular Addresses*
Number of Transactions per Day
120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000
Apr-14

Jul-14
Total no. of daily transactions

Oct-14

Jan-15

No. of daily transactions excluding popular addresses

The milestone of 100,000 daily transactions by addresses excluding popular


ones was reached in February, which is two months later than total transactions
Source and note: Blockchain.info, *100 most popular addresses.

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Now Over 374 Bitcoin ATMs Around the World, but


Growth in New ATMs is Slowing
Increase in Number of Bitcoin ATMs
120

112
104

100

79

80

60
43
40

32

20

0
Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Data source: CoinATMRadar

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Break Even for Bitcoin ATM Owners is 11 Months;


Average ATM Generates $5,520 profit per year
Operation Metrics
Number of transactions/month

100

Average transaction size ($)

200

Transaction fee revenue (%)

Revenue per year ($)

12,000

Cost Metrics
Bitcoin ATM acquisition cost ($)

5,000

Place rent/month ($)

200

Exchange fee (%)

0.2

Cash logistics/month ($)

300

Costs per year ($)

6,480

Profits per Year ($)

5,520

Notes: Annual profits vary significantly depending on transaction volume. BitAccess machines are doing about $30,000 in transactions
per month (Montreal installed machine). Skyhook Bitcoin ATM in Philippines has on average 40-50 transactions per month. However,
the average bitcoin purchase size is not revealed.
Sources: CoinDesk, BitAccess, Reddit, CoinATMRadar

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High Transaction Fees May be Discouraging People


from Using Bitcoin ATMs
Social media comments on bitcoin ATM fees

Sources: CoinDesk, Reddit, CoinATMRadar

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Half of Bitcoin ATMs are Located in North America,


Nearly One-Third are in Europe
Bitcoin ATMs by Continent

Europe
32%

Asia
11%

Oceania Latin
America
6%
1%

North
America
50%

Africa
0%

Data source: CoinATMRadar

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Technology

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Profiles of Four Alternative Uses of Blockchain


Technology

1. Property title
2. Smart contracts
3. Voting
4. Notary services

Sources: CoinDesk, Coinbase Blog

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Property Title: Blockchain Technology Could Empower


the Poor, Reduce Global Inequality
An elite minority enjoys the
economic benefits of the law and
globalization, while the majority of
entrepreneurs are stuck in poverty,
where their assets adding up to
more than $10tn worldwide
languish as dead capital in the
shadows of the law.
- Hernando de Soto, economist

Lima, Peru

With protected property title, people could better engage in economic


activities such as investment and infrastructure construction.
Blockchain technology could 'parachute' property title services into
many poverty stricken countries. - Balaji S. Srinivasan, 21 Inc
Sources: Hernando de Soto (2002) Law and Property Outside the West, Housing Finance International
June 1994, de Soto, Hernando. 2000. The Mystery of Capital. UK: Black Swan.

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Financial Automation: Smart Contracts are Being


Deployed by a Number of Companies

Sample smart contract: A dog with a GPS chip


in his collar is walked by a dog walker. On
completing the walk the collar sends a network
signal, and the contract automatically executes
a cryptocurrency payment to the walker.
Sources: CoinDesk, Ripple Labs, BitHalo, Reality Keys, Fast Co.labs, Morton Fraser

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Voting: Blockchain-Based Tech is Already Being


Used in Elections

In a traditional voting system, you have no idea about whether your vote is
counted. However, blockchain voting allows you to have the ability to audit
whether your vote is counted by viewing your vote using a public ledger.
At the same time, anonymity is also protected.
Source: CoinDesk

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Notary: Blockchain Technology Could Reshape


Notarization Services and Reduce Inefficiency
A study carried out for the European
Commission in 2007 found that house buyers in
countries with highly regulated notarial systems
paid much higher legal fees than house buyers
elsewhere (see chart).
Blockchains can store and certify the existence
of documents without relying on a central
authority. Companies like CoinSpark and Proof
of Existence are providing the service.

Sources: The Economist, Proof of Existence, CoinDesk

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Views on the Application of Bitcoin Technology to the


Internet of Things
Applying the blockchain concept to the world of the
Internet of Things offers fascinating possibilities.
Right from the time a product completes final assembly, it
can be registered by the manufacturer into a universal
blockchain representing its beginning of life. Once sold, a
dealer or end customer can register it to a regional
blockchain (a community, city or state).

Paul Brody,
Technology Strategy
Consulting, IBM

We demonstrate how a humble washer can become a


semi-autonomous device capable of managing its own
consumables supply, performing self-service and
maintenance, and even negotiating with other peer
devices both in the home and outside to optimize its
environment.

Sources: CoinDesk, LinkedIn

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Functional Bitcoin Applications Can Be


Grouped into 10 Categories
Email Email applications that eliminate spam by
requiring BTC for email delivery
Video Video applications that require one-click
micropayments to view video content
News News sites that eliminate advertising for users by
requiring BTC for time spent viewing content
Crowdfunding Global crowdfunding applications that
allow project creators to raise funds from around the world
Payouts Applications that allow creators or service
providers anywhere in the world to get paid by a global
audience
Source: CoinBase Blog

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Bitcoin Functional Applications (contd.)


Remittances Global remittance applications that enable
worldwide cross-border payments
Ecommerce Bitcoin-focused merchant directories that
offer a beautiful UI for consumers
Communication Networks Applications that incentivize
nodes to provide resources to communications networks
by rewarding BTC for participation
Identity Distributed identity applications that give
people control of their own identity, built on top of a
distributed identity protocol
Attribution Attribution applications that allow users to
prove ownership of data, built on top of an attribution
protocol
Source: CoinBase Blog

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Bitcoin Mining Arms Race Slows:


Bitcoins Network Difficulty QoQ Growth Rate Flattens

Billions

Hashes

Quarterly Increase in Bitcoin Mining Difficulty


20

250%
236%

18

17.8

16

200%

14
11.8

12

150%

10
106%

100%
6.1

6.0

6
4

50%
17%

15%

0%
Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Quarterly Increase in Mining Difficulty

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Qtr.-over-Qtr. Percentage Increase in Mining Difficulty

Notes: Difficulty represents the number of necessary hash calculations to mine a new block.
Data source: CoinDesk

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69

Mining Pools: No News is Good News;


Still No Permanent Fix for 51% Attack Risk

AntPool
Unknown

Unknown with
1BwZeHJ
Address
BitMinter
P2Pool
MegaBigPower
Bitcoin
Affiliate EclipseMC
Network
Eligius

F2Pool

BTC Guild
Ghash.io

Ghash.io
continues to
shrink, down
to less than
10% share
from 50% in
July 2014

BW.com

Slush
BTCChina
Pool
KnCMiner

Data source: Four-day average as of 1st Apr 2015 blockchain.info/pools

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Software Developer Interest in Bitcoin Continues


Steady Growth
Number of Created Repositories in Github with Bitcoin in the Name or Description

Data source: BitcoinPulse

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71

Nodes: Levelling Off in Node Numbers Eases Bitcoin


Network Centralization Concerns

Data sources: Bitnodes

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Quiet, Successful Update to the Bitcoin Core


Protocol in Q1
New features added to Bitcoin Core software version 0.10 include:
Consensus library:
The consensus library makes it easier to build competing full node
implementations by reusing the most sensitive and difficult part of the
Core source code
Transaction fees:
Core wallet users are provided with an estimate of the fees to pay in
order to get quicker confirmations
Headers-first syncing:
A node first downloads parts of a block before proceeding to download
the entire blockchain, which speeds up communications between
nodes. This makes running a full node a more attractive prospect even
as there are fears over a declining number of nodes in operation
Source: CoinDesk

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Regulation and Macro

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Bitcoin Startups Targeting the Worlds 2.5 Billion


Unbanked

Percentage of total adult


population that does not use
formal or semiformal financial
services
State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

0-25%

26-50%

51-75%

76-100%

Estimates used to calculate regional averages


Sources: CoinDesk, Mckinsey, Bitcoin for the Unbanked

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75

Wall Street Interest in Bitcoin is Growing

Three blockchain startups selected


for Barclays Accelerator, with one
aiming to provide blockchain
solutions for the insurance industry

Citi wants to [accelerate]


emerging technologies that
have the potential to transform
financial services experiences
for Citis customers

UBS is set to open a London-based research


lab to explore the application of blockchain
technology in the financial services industry

Sources: CoinDesk, Bank Innovation

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Migration of Wall Street Executives to Bitcoin


Companies Continues

Duncan
Niederauer, NYSE.
Now advisor at
TeraExchange

Jason Weinstein,
US Department of
Justice. Now advisor at
BitFury

Blythe Masters,
JP Morgan Chase.
Now at Digital Assets
Holdings LLC

Timo Schlaefer,
Goldman Sachs.
Now at Crypto
Facilities

Gene Sperling,
National Economic
Council. Now advisor at
Ripple Labs

Paul Camp,
JP Morgan Chase.
Now at Circle

Arthur Levitt,
SEC. Now advisor at
BitPay and Vaurum

Arthur Hayes,
Citi. Now at BitMEX

Sources: WSJ, CoinDesk, LinkedIn

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Nine Banks in Total Have Established Banking


Relationships with Bitcoin Startups to Date
Newly Announced Banking Relationships

27th Mar 2015

24th Mar 2015

Securing banking partnerships has hindered the operations of bitcoin companies, often
forcing them to halt part of their offerings
However, partnership between banks and bitcoin companies could improve security
and efficiency
Source: CoinDesk
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Views on How Bitcoin Technology Can Transform


Financial Services
Digital Assets has a revolutionary
technology platform that eliminates
the counterparty risk and lack of
transparency that has hindered
mainstream adoption of
cryptographic technology.
Blythe Masters,
CEO of Digital Assets
Holdings LLC

The possibilities for reducing


cost and risk in settlement are
enormous.
Sources: CoinDesk, LinkedIn

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Select Country Regulatory Updates

The government does not see a need to regulate or ban bitcoin


activities. Bitcoin does not pose a substantial threat to Hong
Kong's financial system.
Hong Kong
Spanish political party, Unin Progreso y Democracia (UPyD),
has submitted a proposal to the country's Congress outlining
why bitcoin regulation is needed.
Spain
Digital currency businesses will have to comply with
the Isle of Man's anti-money laundering (AML) laws
from 1st April.
Isle of Man
State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

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80

In Q1 There Were Positive Developments With the NY


BitLicense Proposal, but

Businesses that store, hold, issue,


administer, exchange or control digital
currency on behalf of their customers require
a license to operate
An exemption added for companies
engaging in mere software development and
dissemination
Eliminates the prohibition on digital
currency investments, so long as they are
held in an acceptable ratio
Demands that the licensee must submit
non-customer identities to the extent
practicable
NY regulators accepted new comments,
further revisions are a possibility

Sources: CoinDesk. Manhattan photo courtesy of Symmetry50

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Problems Remain with BitLicenses Duplicative and


Redundant Requirements
We should be mindful of this 'tax on innovation' that
regulations place on the startup sector and high
growth companies in general.

Fred Wilson,
Union Square Ventures

1. Anti-money laundering (AML) requirements:


Virtual currency exchangers and
administrators are already required to
comply with federal AML regulations
2. State money transmission regulations are
already in place and are applicable to all
virtual currency businesses

Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/fred-wilson-on-the-proposed-bitlicense-regulations/)

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Generally Favorable Response to UKs Initial


Cryptocurrency Regulatory Framework
Core elements of the HM Treasury proposal:
Curb criminal activity via AML regulation
Allow cryptocurrency companies to opt-in to
standardized consumer protections
Proposed injecting 10m into digital currencies
research
Negative Reactions

Positive Reactions
A light touch approach (Marc
Warne, Bittylicious)
Help score banking
relationships (Hugh HalfordThompson, QuickBitcoin)

[Should] limit this to fiat-tocrypto exchanges (Marc


Warne, Bittylicious)
Will force the UK's bitcoin
companies to move
abroad (Akin Fernandez,
Azteco)

Sources: HM Treasury, CoinDesk

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Views on Bitcoin Regulation and its Potential


Positive Impact on Economic Growth

Among other things, [the programme] will look at


whether regulation of the sector is required, so that
virtual currency businesses can continue to be set up
in the UK, and people and businesses can use
[cryptocurrencies] safely.

George Osborne
Chancellor of the Exchequer,
Second Lord of the Treasury

It's only by harnessing innovations in finance, alongside


our existing world class knowledge and skills in financial
services, that we'll ensure Britain's financial sector
continues to meet the diverse needs of businesses and
consumers, here and around the globe, and create the
jobs and growth we all want to see in the future.

Source: CoinDesk

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About CoinDesk

Find out more at www.coindesk.com


Follow us on Twitter: @CoinDesk
Subscribe to our daily email newsletters for the latest digital currency news
If you have data you think should be included in future State of Bitcoin
reports, email stateofbitcoin@coindesk.com
We also welcome any feedback you have on the report

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Disclaimer

CoinDesk makes every effort to ensure that the information in this


presentation is accurate and up to date. We cannot, however, accept
responsibility for any loss or inconvenience caused by reliance on the
material contained here.

This presentation does not constitute financial advice or an investment


recommendation in any way whatsoever. It is recommended that you
perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified
investment professional before making any financial decisions.

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