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Great
The
Depression
as Historical
Problem
A. Bernstein
Michael
is now
It
the
1930s,
To
history.
about
its causes,
this
was
depression
the Great
there
Those
at the
of a profound
symptomatic
to be
tends
who
no
exists
there
Depression
economic
protracted
day,
although
its consequences.
regarding
since
half-century
severe
and
the most
American
ment
over
well
crisis
of
in
dissolved
agree
general
some consensus
time
the
that
argued
in the mecha
weakness
of
development
Keynesian
As
theory.
economic
the
result,
was
presumption
to
owing
repeated
that
the
the Great
increasing
that
monplace
erratic
The
business
performance
Depression
sophistication
was
"tamed"
the American
and
com
"obsolete."
economy
the
during
varieties
economic
of
Revolution"
has
that
climate
the
at a time
been
shaken,
optimism
of dramatic
and
real
a new
in the
the
"Keynesian
come
has
"classicism"
to
reconstruction
to remem
it is important
opinion,
for Keynesian
economics
in the world
emerged
economy
and
years
would
there
had
been
apprehension
that
a return
to
fears
of
a return
to hard
and
times.
to engage
struggled
the
with
to understand
of an older
ideas
devastating
generation
at a time
events
when
hostile
focus
on
have
avoided
the
concerning
run or on
short
the
structural,
the Great
policy
that
do not
respect,
they
Depression
In this
failure.
and
institutional,
long-run
perspec
a historical
within
framework
Depression
or
more.
so
several
decades
spanned
By
doing,
they have
not
some
causes
of
of the
appreciation
simply
possible
the Great
Depression
performance
this reason
of
approaches,
that
the American
I seek,
to persuade
economy
a reassessment
through
you
since
of the
insight
as Historical
that
Great
and
development
It is for
mid-century.
of these
afforded
an
lost
older
analytical
by an understand
Problem."
under
except
output
confidence
that
asserting
emerged,
of
thought.
of economic
postwar
have
levels
Indeed,
in economic
prominence
ber
alter
circumstances.
exceptional
In this
thinking
cannot
government
who
choose
to situate
economic
of
cycle
of
never
could
any
Yet far from being resolved, the concerns and misgivings of the
depression and war years simply faded from view. It has by now
long been fashionable to claim that "Keynes is dead," and few
economists
nisms of capitalism were only briefly heard. After World War II,
their views appeared hysterical and exaggerated, as the industri
alized nations
sustained dramatic rates of growth and as the
economics profession became increasingly preoccupied with the
the moment
for
depression
in the Literature
Trends
in the
The older literature concerning
the Great Depression
United States may be broadly classified into three categories. One
set argued that the severity and length of the downturn was the
direct result of the collapse of financial markets that began in
1929. Such work emphasized the causes of the 1929 crash and
those factors that amplified its impact. Another
school of thought
concluded that the economic calamity of the 1930s was the direct
result of poorly formulated and politically distorted actions under
taken by the government. A third set of research took a broader
OAH
Magazine
of History
Fall
2001
the Editor
Bernstein/From
The
for those
challenge
of us who
teach about
this profound
economic
is to find
crisis
response,
predictable
ments,
in
ways
to link the
which
trade
and
the demise
demands
veritable
personal
caused
the
immediate
of
these
reasons
the
whatever
depression
the
in a long-run
of
origins
the
and
and
from
attribute.
They
came,
to follow. Thus
a weak banking
the
the
crash
short-run
on
the
concerned
approach
consumer
wealth
and
spending.
were
arguments
confidence
convinc
completely
was
it was
subjective,
thesis
on
focused
the
causes
immediate
and
summer
that
market,
impacts
than
rather
thirties
of the
than
rather
argument
real
caused
being
have
may
by such
excessive
generated
feelings.
the
rejected
frequently
on the grounds
it abstracted
that
events
in
interwar
the
monetary
of
and
1929,
a softness
in construction
apparent
shared a com
circumstances
panic,
and
credit
too
boldly
economy.
mon
arrange
crash
the
Depression.
of
business
economists
speculation
the
slump,
transcended
All
that led to a
credit
once
and
twenties,
in
payments
States
unstable
Extremely
short-run
the
the economic
Later
to analyze
that
in international
reparations
attempted
of
govern
It suggested
make
in the
the Great
effects
pessimism
context.
to European
loans
The
social
contemporaries.
perspective
struc
credit
worse.
credit.
version
ing. Because
and
of
emerged
thereby
Another
of
experience
unstable
with
years
and
and
on
back
that Germany
explosion
ments
network,
interwar
chaotic
situation
the
the
of
economics
the
cutting
made
merely
Moreover,
substantive
of
consequence
and
"cause
never
run
effect
the
reverse.
from
Had
the
the
to
economy
economy
was
activity
Galbraith
been
the
held
stock
fundamen
of the New York Stock Market collapse of 1929, and they asserted
of wealth and disruption of the
that the resulting devaluation
the
intensity of the crisis. The "business
banking system explained
confidence" thesis was perhaps the best example of this school of
tally sound in 1929 the effect of the great stock market crash
and the loss
the shock to confidence
might have been small...
of spending by those who were caught in the market might soon
thought.
collapse,
pessimistic
confidence
took hold,
A more
expectations
was
so severe
stifling
in the business
and
investment
comprehensive
community.
that
unexpected
The
shock
a dramatic
to
panic
formulation
of
the
short-run
argument
Fall 2001
worn
have
As
market
it may
debacle;
dampened
outgrowth
farm
off."
have
arisen
once
expectations
had
been
incomes
during
the
twenties.
But
even
incapable of unambiguously
recent
investiga
explaining
a large
Bernstein/From
portion
we
sure
for
say
in spending. We
of the decline
cannot
it happened.
why
the American
showed
economy
great
recov
for
potential
material
stimulus
input
thus
prices,
existed. The
rhetoric
whatever
negating
monetary
and
severity.
cases
also
they
criticized
the
for not
government
liquidate
maintain
to
their
consume
competitive
ment
savings
policies
action
Economic
fell,
subsequently
times.
a
and
were
presumably
Committee
The
average
recession
the
in the
crash of 1929 was less important than certain developments
that
had
deleterious
interwar
the
economy
impacts throughout
period. Some authors (for example, Seymour Harris and Paul
Sweezy) argued that during the 1920s the distribution of national
income
became
overall
propensity
the
skewed,
increasingly
lowering
economy's
to consume.
as Charles
such
Others,
fo
Kindleberger, W. Arthur Lewis, and Vladimir Timoshenko,
cused on a shift in the terms of trade between primary products and
manufactured
of the
goods, due to the uneven development
nations.
in
terms
and
industrial
This
the
of
agricultural
change
a
in
created
credit
crisis
world
markets
trade, they argued,
during
the bad crop yields of 1929 and 1930. At the same time that
economies
agricultural
were
losing
revenue
because
of poor
har
Industrial organization
Means
most
of 1929 became
the downturn
severe.
prominent
economists
among
them)
an
explanation
of
in the
the depression in the trend toward imperfect competition
American economy of the early twentieth century. After the crash
of 1929, prices became increasingly inflexible, due to the concen
trated structure of American
industry and the impact of labor
propensity
took
hold.
but
solution,
of the Temporary
Pro
govern
National
the Concentration
Investigate
and to
in the decade
incurred earlier
in uncertain
the Editor
of Eco
nomic Power) was too little, too late, and was often inspired more
by
than
political
economic
concerns.
was essentially an
the Great Depression
was
of
failures
outgrowth
policy
problematic at best. To be sure,
one could with the benefit of hindsight engage in some forceful
criticism of economic policy during the 1930s. But it seems a futile
The
exercise.
notion
After
that
all,
in many
respects
the Roosevelt
Administration
must
One
suddenly became
question
remains:
ingly worked
consensus
ask,
how
therefore,
why
were
traditional
that
policies
among
officials
government
generations
of
economists
had
the
seem
a theoretical
suddenly
so per
verse
Factors
as Cause
An
unemployed
Photograph
(Courtesy
worker
stands
outside
vacant
by Dorothea
Lange for the Farm Security
of the Franklin D. Roosevelt
Presidential
1930s.
store,
Administration.
Library.)
Fall 2001
the Editor
Bernstein/From
or pro
in worsening
role
inmodern
processes
cyclical
was
period
major
an
era
in which
ac
of economic
cycles
in the United
States (and
tivity
reached
Europe) coincidentally
their nadir. These cycles were 1 ) the
Kondratieffy a wave of fifty or more
associated
years
with
introduc
the
approximately
duration
years'
a wave
Kitchm,
Photograph
of about
inventory
typical
cycle.
constrained
already
power
purchasing
of consumers.
On
the other,
were
There
income
several
focused
in
weaknesses
these
on an increasingly
unambiguous
theories.
unequal
evidence
Those
au
distribution
to make
their
of
case,
nor did they specify precisely how such factors came to life in the
interwar economy. While Berle and Means claimed to have demon
strated a relative price inflexibility in concentrated economic sectors
during the 1930s, their critics were unconvinced. Given that the
aggregate price level fell by one-third in the early thirties, they argued,
how inflexible could the general price system have been? The "sticky
prices" thesis also relied on an assumption of perfect competition in
all markets other than those where the imperfections existed. If this
assumption were relaxed, the thesis did not hold.
The terms of trade argument similarly had a major flaw. The
major
in
weaknesses
the
American
economy
of
the
interwar
as
share
of
the
nation's
gross
Fall 2001
national
product
by those of Simon
Abramovitz
alleled
had
Richard
and
and, more
Easterlin.
of waves
existence
the
documenting
Kuznets
some
par
recently, Moses
was
Kuznets
of
were
efforts
Schumpeter's
unions. On
forty months'
in
successful
to
fifteen
twenty
of growth
of output...
culminated
in a protracted
depression
context
"secular
In
economic
that
we
can
understand
the
large
literature
on
stagnation."
general,
maturity,
theorists
stagnation
as
it was
sometimes
agreed
that
called,
stagnation,
involved
or
a "de
the Editor
Bernstein/From
technologies
were
who
those
more
with
concerned
the
shrink
consequently
for new
outlets
contracted,
investment
arguments
concerning
For one,
maturity
encourages
a
anticipate
population
power.
ing
in
the
in population
the
of
number
however,
in purchas
but
the market."
broaden
inconsistencies
many
of
response
to be
so
sible.
There
on
and
assertions.
questionable
were
of
always
the
motor
Propo
of economic
stages
newer
forms
of
and
growth
investment
amounts
large
on
impact
task
of
innovations
investment
to
periods
informa
and
technique
(in
earlier
during
in later
way
spending
would
at all. While
expenditure
they
not
have
been
to
adequate
the
thus
most
version
sophisticated
of
the
economy
idea.
maturity
well
version
toward
ment
and
qualities
of many
as their
frequent
appeals
of
maturity
thesis
the
of
the
the
was
that
factors.
long-run
as
Steindl's
tendencies
in capitalist
inherent
concentration,
capital
develop
over
led to a lethargic
attitude
toward
time,
competition
investment.
the emergence
of concentrated
Specifically,
cut.
are most
unfea
to
in order
prices
a
tend
seems
reduction
given
industry,
is concentrated.
industry
in a concentrated
contrast,
By
these
market,
of underutilized
to undertake
any
of
utiliza
capacity
in unemployment.
firms will
capacity,
net
price
increases
also
rate
their
in capacity utilization
but
circumstances,
for declines
to reduce
tend
companies
In
profound.
presence
investment.
In
be
in
the
increasingly
cumulative
pro
will
alleviate
the
intensify
their
problem
own
burden
of excess
The
economy-wide.
capacity,
the
greater
skewed
increasingly
their
the
revenues,
effective
a
when
slump
of
of
penetration
demand
occurs.
The
industrial
to
rising excess
for recovery,
government
is therefore
markets,
is central to Steindl's
in
potential
spend)
propensity
marginal
is combined with
shocks,
com
when
that,
output
aggregate
exogenous
foreign
of
generates
intervention
alterations
distribution
the reluctance
bined with
What
Not
arguments
stagnation
to external
are
income
the
the
national
capacity
For
as prices
save. Declining
recovery.
systematic
raise
sales.
reduction
to which
tion. Reductions
merely
were
innovations
example)
given
may have
their
of
have
new
Heavy
for
in managerial
type,
housing,
may
if
but
foundered.
argument
Their
themselves.
that
assumption
capital-using
cars,
theorists
stagnation
implicit
their
capital-saving,
railroads,
of the
an
to
in
the
margins
own
to some
price
was
contained
may
for
firm
each
disinclined
apparent
jeopardized
revenues
Firms'
fluctuations.
in a slump
that
even
incentives
be
to economic
firms
extent
the
and
Much
like the population theory, the variant of stagnation
that
focused on the decline of technological
theory
change em
bodied
in concentrated
industries is intensified
inflexibility
an
and
this
has
important impact on the
during depressions,
Price
profit
not
does
paupers
is
that
capacity
revival.
entrepreneurs
is important,
What
increase
the
increase
The
because
market.
broadening
is not
context
in this
investment
economic
where
required
therefore,
economic
an
for
of excess
the utilization
prevented
compensate
were
quickly limited.
Both variants of stagnation
markets
barring
or
spending,
greatly
lessened.
structure
that
make
the
economy
as
whole
concentration.
Economic
maturity
and
the
threat
of
which
are
reluctant
to use
OAH Magazine
them."
In order
of History
to escape
Fall 2001
the Editor
Bernstein/From
must
be redistributed
capital
or new
industries.
Stagnation,
tive
sectors
Indeed,
Roosevelt's
forcefully
the
competi
of
accumulation
corporate
incen
The
surpluses.
tive of the tax, it was claimed, would lead firms to issue more
or
investment
of their surpluses in the form of productive
of capital resources
dividends. As a result, the mobilization
would
be more
profits
efficient
and
tax
one
to be
proved
Interestingly
tween
stagnation
investigators
in
an
industry
Yet,
competitiveness.
no
clear
to
tended
as
the
as
I discovered
on
focus
determinant
primary
in my
during
number
a
of
own
some
concentrated
highly
decade, while
evidence
which
dynamic
market
concerning
Steindl
based his
or not
involves
matrix,
the
industry's
theory. Whether
several
of capital
position
the durability
was
structure
issues
unrelated
concentration
in the
of its output,
frail
a given
economy's
to
reed
upon
industry
the
in particular,
Depression
do not,
analysis
of mature
and
of course,
obscure
to an understanding
of his contribution
of the
in
economies
capitalist
and
of
sector's
research,
in Steindl's
weaknesses
tendencies
a
spanning
development
half-century
able to understand
the Great
Depression
of long-run
he was
thus
In short,
or
of market
the
of the
composition
as a historical problem.
be
industry
Great
to the shifting
respect
a whole.
and
relationship
in American
The
more.
contro
and
unpopular
as
the importance
and
recovery.
the undistributed
1936,
the most
concentration
of
exists
there
enough,
and
of
to generate
likely
Act
to emerge
firms
more
in the Revenue
Embedded
industry with
economy
some members
of
during the Great Depression,
"Brain Trust," such as Rexford Tugwell,
argued
for the imposition of an "undistributed profits tax" to
the
prevent
to more
either
is
number
issues having
to
input-output
economies
capitalist
seemed
particu
to
investment
from
escape
concerned
tremely
of
in advanced
stagnation
that
most
inertia.
Even
accumulation
so,
was
he
ex
in mature
strategies
capitalist
institutions."
of political
The wisdom (not tomention
observations
1976
veys
the more
American
recent
one
the
the prescience)
apparent
as
soon
of American
evolution
of Steindl's
as one
sur
capitalism.
accumulation
on
century,
becomes
confirmed
side,
of
many
Steindl's
tendencies
tance
toward
of political
economists
temporary
to be
reveals
forces
In all
superfluous.
history
and
underutilization,
and social
the
conceptual
often
these
the
impor
thought
power
by
con
respects,
and
im
"Flood
Mayfield,
Kentucky,
refugees."
Evans.
by Walker
(Courtesy
Photograph
Congress,
LC-USF34-008217-D.)
Fall 2001
1937.
February
of the Library of
performance
over
time.
THEEDITOR
BERNSTEIN/FROM
almost
brought
instantaneous
resolution
product,
in current
measured
dollars,
in government
reduction
postwar
;;'-%^^g|||:;^
spend
occurred between
1945 and the
most
of
them
lasted
1970s,
only about a
or
less,
and
none
of
them
"A shanty
Rothstein.
ap
remotely
consumption
generous
shortages,
wages
of
refuse."
(Courtesy
was
the
second
major
and
rationing,
the war
economy,
controls,
contributed
coupled
to
construction
and
Foreign
jump in disposable
In part
years.
postwar
sectors.
grew rapidly
exports
the
needs
of
devastated
in the
areas
the prosperity
the decade,
while
robust
and
impressive,
never
theless weakened by 195 7. This set the stage for the arrival of a new
in Washington,
brand of economics
(and self-con
explicitly
imbued
with
the
of
doctrines
Keynesianism.
sciously)
to the
From the "New Frontier" policies of John F. Kennedy,
successor
"Great Society"
his
of
Johnson,
agenda
Lyndon
of a "New Federalism" by Richard
through the declaration
there
Nixon,
achieving
a dramatic
industrial
for American
could only be met by the one industrial base that had been nearly
untouched by war-related destruction. Explicit policy commit
ments to the rebuilding of allied and occupied territories, such as
the Marshall Plan in Europe, also served to increase the foreign
savings due
the
other
demand
immediate
(but not
with
by Arthur
Photograph
LC-USF33-003000-M1.)
of
component
1939.
Herrin,
Illinois, January
of the Library of Congress,
intervention
built of
and
ensued
in
the
an
nation's
era
of
sustained
economic
inflation?has
more
acceptable
recently
central
life.
The
government
goal
of many
shattered.
But
throughout
the sixties and much of the seventies (and for some even during
to secure
the eighties) the perceived obligation of government
OAH Magazine
of History
Fall 2001
THEEDITOR
BERNSTEIN/FROM
overall
economic
remained
one
century
was not
instability
of
more
the
important
economic
American
and
seriously questioned
of
changes
twentieth
history.
economic
American
specificity notwithstanding,
seems to
in
the
of
half
the
twentieth
latter
century
performance
in many respects with the general analytical -.
have conformed
propositions derived from interwar economics. The ability to
Historical
forestall
overcome
and/or
economic
toward
tendencies
a continuation
But
domestic.
of
a charmed
such
stagna
both global
existence
is
in
apparently no longer possible. Josef Steindl himself noted,
1976, that "the cheerful extroverted era of [postwar] growth has
come
apparently
reasons
end."
were
this
for
...
countries
energy
and...
in words
And,
of
reduction
in
increase
seem
today
tension
emergence
. . . ."
as
that the
tension
between
within
the
the
capitalist
raw material,
of environment,
the
problems
that
"the
. . . the
superpowers
and
to an
relevant
formupoignancy
strikingly
this
state
we
when
clear
on
Note
consideration
tend to obscure
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