Jim Duncan's Market Report

market update
CHARLOTTESVILLE
22902

Current prices for condominiums, townhomes, TICs on the market

Trends in pricing
Current levels of supply and demand
Value metrics

Report for the week of

Sunday March 21, 2010

Presented by Jim Duncan

434-242-7140
RealCentralVA.com/Nest Realty Group
www.RealCentralVA.com - jim@realcentralva.com

Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved

www.altosresearch.com
 Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

City Overview CHARLOTTESVILLE

Real-Time Market Profile Trend THIS WEEK
Median List Price $ 204,250 The median condominium price in
Average List Price $ 282,377 CHARLOTTESVILLE this week is
Least Expensive Listing $ 74,900 $204,250. The 316 condos have been
Most Expensive Listing $ 1,500,000 on the market for an average of 180
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 159 days.
Average Days on Market 180
Total Inventory 316
Absorbed This Week 45
Percent of Properties with Price Reductions 37 %
Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 31 %
Percent Flip (price increased) 16 %
Median Size (sq ft) 1,341 Inventory has been decreasing lately
Median Number of Bedrooms 2.7
but the Market Action Index is falling
Median Number of Bathrooms 2.1
also. With days-on-market climbing,
Median Age 16
Altos Research Value Statistics these are relatively negative
Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 23 implications for the market.
Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supply
relative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favor
the seller. See the section below for full details.

Trend Key
Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend
*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons. QUARTILES
Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which properties
sold. To get a tightly targeted understanding
of properties on the market, we break
each locale into quartiles. Each quartile
is 25% of the condos listed.

Characteristics per Quartile

Med. Ab- Avg.
Quartile Median Price Med. Sqft Bed Bath Age Inven. New sorbed DoM

1 $ 419,500 2,037 3.0 3.0 3 79 4 33 193 Most expensive 25% of condos

2 $ 244,900 1,610 3.0 3.0 9 79 11 6 155 Upper-middle 25% of condos

3 $ 178,500 1,200 2.0 2.0 22 79 5 4 166 Lower-middle 25% of condos

4 $ 134,900 870 2.0 1.0 38 79 6 3 207 Least expensive 25% of condos

We'll refer to the quartiles in the trend

graphs below.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 2

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE
Despite this week's down tic, the market
seems to have paused around this
plateau. The Market Action Index is a
good leading indicator for the
durability of this shift.

QUARTILE PRICES
Often, we find insights by watching
pricing trends within the quartile
segments.
Prices have been mixed-to-negative
trends in recent weeks. Quartile 4 is
down, while the rest of the market is
basically flat. Look to the Market Action
Index to determine if this plateau is the
stage for a prolonged price decline.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 3

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE AND VALUE

The market plateau is seen across the
price and value. The price per square
foot and median list price have both
been reasonably stagnant. Watch the
Market Action Index for persistent
changes as a leading indicator before
the market moves from these levels.

INVENTORY
Inventory has been falling in recent
weeks. Note that declining inventory
alone does not signal a strengthening
market. Look to the Market Action
Index and Days on Market trends to
gauge whether buyer interest is
changing with the available supply.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 4

 Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

MARKET ACTION INDEX

Property prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be
characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index The condo market in
falls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward
CHARLOTTESVILLE is currently in the
correction.
Buyer's zone (below 30), though not
strongly so. The 90-day Market Action
Index stands this week at 23 so buyers
should expect find reasonable levels of
selection.

The market has been consistently cool

for several weeks. Demand level are low
relative to the available inventory. It's
a Buyer's market and prices continue to
The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a fall. Look for a persistent shift in
statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. Market Action before prices plateau or
An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market") begin to rise again.
because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will
typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "Cold
Market") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at
the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES

Not surprisingly given the overall
Market Action Index, all quartiles are in
the Buyer's Market zone with several
months of inventory given the current
rate of demand for homes in the
quartile. Watch the quartile for changes
before the overall market shifts. Often
one end of the market (e.g. the low end)
will improve and signal a strengthening
market before the whole group changes.

The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my price
range?"

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 5

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)

The properties have been on the
market for an average of 134 days. Half
of the listings have come newly on the
market in the past 119 or so days.

DOM PER QUARTILE

It is not uncommon for the higher
priced homes in an area to take longer
to sell than those in the lower
quartiles.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 6

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

CHARLOTTESVILLE
Neighborhood Detail 22902

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Median List Price $ 239,900 THIS WEEK
Average List Price $ 306,016 The median condominium price in
Least Expensive Listing $ 75,000 CHARLOTTESVILLE 22902 this week
Most Expensive Listing $ 1,500,000 is $239,900.
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 158
Average Days on Market 166
Total Inventory 75
Absorbed This Week 5
Median Size (sq ft) 1,318 The Market Action index has been
Median Number of Bedrooms 2.8
trending down lately, while days-on-
Median Number of Bathrooms 1.9
market is climbing, providing mostly
Median Age 12
Altos Research Value Statistics bearish signs for the market.
Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 20

PRICE
Despite this week's down tic, price
trends in this zip code have generally
been moving up lately. We are below
the market's high point, and we'll
investigate the Market Action Index
later on to see if we expect this week's
blip to become a downward trend.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 7

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE PER QUARTILE

In the quartile market segments, we see
the market's price weakness evident
across the board. Quartiles 2, 3, and 4
have been in price decline in recent
weeks, with Quartile 1 remaining
basically flat. Look to the Market Action
Index as a leading indicator of the
bottom of the market.

Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES

Med. Ab- Avg.
Quartile Median Price Med. Sqft Bed Bath Age Inven. New sorbed DoM

1 $ 509,250 1,665 2.0 2.0 3 18 0 3 174 Most expensive 25% of condos

2 $ 279,000 1,644 3.0 3.0 1 19 5 1 150 Upper-middle 25% of condos

3 $ 219,900 1,342 3.0 2.0 16 19 1 1 153 Lower-middle 25% of condos

4 $ 159,900 1,120 3.0 2.0 21 19 4 0 189 Least expensive 25% of condos

INVENTORY
Inventory has been relatively steady
around these levels in recent weeks.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 8

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

MARKET ACTION INDEX

The CHARLOTTESVILLE 22902 market is
currently in the 'Buyer's Market' zone
(below 30), though not strongly so. The
90-day Market Action Index stands this
week at 20 so buyers should expect find
reasonable levels of selection.

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES

Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the
Buyer's Market zone with several
months of inventory given the current
levels of demand. Watch the quartiles
for changes before the overall market
shifts.

DAYS ON MARKET
The properties have been on the market
for an average of 166 days. Half of the
listings have come newly on the market
in the past 119 or so days. Watch the 90-
day DOM trend for signals of a changing
market.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 9

 Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

DAYS ON MARKET
It is not uncommon for the higher
priced properties in an area (Quartiles
1 and 2) to take longer to sell than
those in the lower quartiles.

About Altos Research Corporation

Altos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets across
the country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available
publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition to
the market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to the
best of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estate
decision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other Altos
Research publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with a
licensed real estate agent or broker.

Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved www.altosresearch.com

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 10