Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Economy 2014
Contents
Executive Summary
8
9
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21
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62
66
68
70
74
75
79
80
80
81
36
37
42
Executive Summary
The mobile industry has scaled dramatically over the
last decade. At the end of 2003, there were a little over
one billion unique subscribers, meaning that just under
one in six people had subscribed to a mobile service. By
the end of 2013 this figure had increased to 3.4 billion
unique subscribers: equivalent to just under half of the
global population. Globally there were 6.9 billion SIM
connections at the end of 2013, with an average of 1.8
active SIM cards per unique subscriber*.
While subscriber and connections growth rates
are now slowing in developed markets, significant
untapped potential remains in developing markets.
These are forecast to add 880 million unique
subscribers by 2020. In developed markets, there
is an accelerating technology shift underway in
the global connection base, with an increasing
proportion of connections now on higher speed
3G and 4G networks (globally this proportion is set
rise from a third at the end of 2013 to two thirds by
2020). The number of commercially available LTE
networks is forecast to increase to more than 500
in 128 countries across the world over the next four
years, going from covering around a fifth of the
global population today to around half by 2017.
The number of mobile broadband connections has
grown tenfold from just over 200 million in 2008 to
well over two billion by 2013. Growth should remain
strong, driven by rising smartphone penetration,
with almost 4 billion mobile broadband connections
expected to be added globally in the period out to
2020.
*GSMA Intelligence estimates that the total number of active SIM connections at end 2013 was 6.3 billion.
| Executive summary
Executive summary |
Digital Commerce
Connected Living
Network 2020
| Executive summary
Executive summary |
GLOBAL
MARKET
Mobile Broadband Growth
6.9bn
9.2bn
2013 2020
4.2%
CAGR
2.2bn 5.9bn
CONNECTIONS
CONNECTIONS
2013 2020
15%
CAGR
Connection Type
2G
2008
3622m
3G
2008
416m
4G
2008
1m
2020
3,163m
3,732m
2,284m
2,890m
2020
2017
1,457m
2013
237m
2020
2008
3.4bn
2010
2013
4.3bn
2020
2020
3.5%
CAGR
2013 - 2020
LTE Networks
2013
2017
256 networks
In 97 Countries
>500 networks
In 128 Countries
2013
47%
56%
2017
54%
189 kbps
3,898 kbps
CAGR
Revenues
of the people on the planet
OPERATOR REVENUES
US$ 1.2tn
TOTAL
ECOSYSTEM
REVENUES
2013
US$ 1.4tn
2020
US$ 205bn
US$ 2tn
US$ 2.9tn
2013
2013
US$ 576bn
2020
2020
Global market
overview
2,344
More advanced devices (such as smartphones
and tablets) operating on increasingly ubiquitous
mobile broadband networks are allowing users to
adopt an ever growing range of new services and
applications, which in turn is driving an explosion in
mobile data traffic. These transformations and new
services have been made possible thanks to the
significant investments that mobile operators have
been making to deliver the sustained growth and
ubiquity of mobile broadband connectivity.
Sub-saharan africa
North AMERICA
Middle East and
North Africa
LATIN AMERICA
EUROPE
Commonwealth of
Independent States
Asia Pacific
1.
2,799
3,225
3,583
2,566
3,029
3,398
3,745 3,890
4,236 4,334
4,134
4,023
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
7.7%
3.5%
CAGR 2008-2013
CAGR 2013-2020
2020
GSMA Intelligence estimates that the total number of active SIM connections at end 2013 was 6.3 billion
84.0%
78.7%
70.8%
79.3%
60%
52.6%
54.8%
52.2%
42.2%
49.6%
41.1%
32.7%
EUROPE
CIS
N AMERICA
70%
67%
LATIN AMERICA
MENA
Asia Pacific
SSA
4,039
4,665
5,369
6,029
6,465
6,886
7,385
7,800
8,960 9,179
8,723
8,153 8,457
North AMERICA
Middle East and
North Africa
LATIN AMERICA
EUROPE
Commonwealth of
Independent States
The global unique subscriber base has been growing at a rate of 7.3% per annum: growth
is forecast to continue, but at a slower rate of 3.5% out to 2020. However, this growth is far
from uniform across the regions of the world. Growth is now largely coming from developing
markets, which are forecast to add nearly 880 million subscribers over the next seven years,
compared to only 56 million new additions in developed markets over the same period.
Unique subscriber penetration rates vary significantly across regions. Europe has the highest
penetration rates, followed by North America and then the Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS). Sub-Saharan Africa had the lowest penetration rate at the end of 2013 (at just
under a third of the population), despite having seen the fastest subscriber growth of any
region over recent years.
Asia Pacific
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
11.3%
CAGR 2008-2013
10
Sub-saharan africa
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
4.2%
CAGR 2013-2017
11
10,000
9,000
4G
8,000
7,000
6,000
3G
5,000
4,000
3,000
2G
2,000
1,000
2008
12
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
13
256
144
47
17
2010
2011
2012
LTE
2013
13.4%
% of total
Connections
10%
7.1%
14
0%
25
2010
2011
92
2012
4.8%
813
557
203
2013
Connections
(million)
0%
1.1%
2.9%
1,134
357
2014
2015
2016
2017
500 Networks
in 128 countries
LTE networks are forecast to
increase to more than 500
networks in 128 countries across
the world by 2017.
223M
266M
1,030
624
364
215
2008
16
2009
2010
2011
1,530
2,163
2,774
3,332
3,886
4,964
Asia Pacific
1,643M
5,934
2,890
Africa Middle East
2,562
2,222
1,850
1,457
Asia Pacific
1,031
687
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
58%
15%
CAGR 2008-2013
CAGR 2013-2020
321M
2,890M
MBB connections
4,435
Smartphones installed
BASE 2017
5,465
184M
North America
(m, ex M2M)
254M
2020
237
304
431
Western Europe
North America
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
17
Source: Vodafone
3,898
2%
3%
8%
12%
75%
2,500kbps
2010
2. https://gsmaintelligence.com/analysis/2013/11/global-lte-network-forecasts-and-assumptions-201317/408/
4x
1,857
189
18
2,725
315
2011
526
2012
817
2013
1,233
2014
2015
2016
2017
54% CAGR
2010-2017
3. http://www.ericsson.com/res/docs/2013/ericsson-mobility-report-november-2013.pdf
19
220
185
241
247
250
252
261
266
LATIN AMERICA
193
N AMERICA
CIS
EUROPE
SSA
MENA
Asia Pacific
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
4.7% CAGR
2013-2020
4. HHI can be used to measure levels of competition in national mobile markets: the lower the index figure, the more competitive the market
5. https://gsmaintelligence.com/files/analysis-subscription/?file=131031-revenue-trends.pdf
20
21
Segment Trends
3G
1.3.1 Discoverer
89%
7%
Smartphone % of total
connections, 2012 average,
selected operators
2G
3%
Contract penetration,
% of population,
2012 average
Network technologies
% of total connections,
2012 average
91%
2.0%
30%
0.2%
9%
0%
2000
2012
2000
2012
6. https://gsmaintelligence.com/analysis/2013/07/bangladesh-asias-untapped-mobile-broadband-opportunity/394/
22
23
23%
3G
77%
22%
17%
Smartphone % of total
connections, 2012 average,
selected operators
Contract penetration,
% of population,
2012 average
2G
Network technologies
% of total connections,
2012 average
1.9%
48%
30%
1.1%
11%
7%
2000
2012
2000
2012
24
25
7.
26
4G
49%
39%
Smartphone % of total
connections, 2012 average,
selected operators
51%
51%
Contract penetration,
% of population,
2012 average
Network technologies
% of total connections,
2012 average
3G
2G
81%
46%
1.3%
1.1%
18%
-5%
2000
2012
2000
2012
Digital Agenda: New price caps for mobile data roaming expected to save families over 200 each year and business travellers over 1000; May 2013
27
4G
51%
Smartphone % of total
connections, 2012 average,
selected operators
83%
Contract penetration,
% of population,
2012 average
84%
3G
12%
2G
Network technologies
% of total connections,
2012 average
78%
1.5%
1.1%
41%
5%
4%
2000
2012
2000
2012
28
29
1.4
Source: GSMA
Discoverer
Fast Growers
Connected Players
Digital Pioneers
1,127
1,186
1,239
1,288
1,331
1,367
1,398
1,424
1,445
Service Revenues
Data + VAS
Voice
2012
Text
30
2013
Discoverers
2014
2015
Fast Growers
2016
2017
2018
Connected Players
2019
2020
Digital Pioneers
31
80 89
104
205
164
436
576
Network
Infrastructure
32
1,186
607
Components
2013
US$ 1,996 Bn
2020
US$ 2,897 Bn
1,445
Apps, Content
AND Advertising
Device
Operators
US$ 576Bn
By far the fastest growth rates in
the broader ecosystem will come
from the areas of applications,
content and advertising, where
annual revenue growth is
expected to be 16% and to total
US$ 576 billion by 2020.
Renewable Energy
An industry
empowering people
and society
70%
GDP
2013 Mobile Industry Impact
US$ 2.4tn
3.6%
GLOBAL
GDP 2013
2020
5.1%
US$ 870bn
Mobile operators
around 1%
Handset
manufacturers
around 0.1%
Infrastructure and
support services
around 0.1%
Distributers/
retailers
around 0.1%
App Economy
A recent report estimated
that there are already over
100bn
10bn
per annum in Europe alone
Jobs
Public Funding
Contribution to public funding (excluding
regulatory and spectrum fees)
10.5M JOBS
15.4M JOBS
2013
2020
Mobile Money
2.5Bn
US$ 336bn
1 Billion
2013
US$ 465bn
50Mn
ACTIVE MOBILE MONEY
USERS GLOBALLY
2013
2020
[1] HTTP://WWW.GSMA.COM/PUBLICPOLICY/WP-CONTENT/UPLOADS/2012/11/GSMA-DELOITTE-IMPACT-MOBILE-TELEPHONY-ECONOMIC-GROWTH.PDF
An industry
empowering
people and
society
36
Infrastructure and
SuppORT Services
Mobile Network
operators
Handset
Manufacturers
Content and
services
672.4
1.3% GDP Contribution
Distributors and
Retailers
34.8
82.6
0.1%
Suppliers of
infrastructure and
support services
0.1%
Mobile
network
operators
Wireless
handset device
manufacturers
49.4
0.1%
Distributors
and retailers
of mobile
communications
29.5
Mobile
content and
service app
providers
37
1325
672
196
0.3%
174
2367
2.0%
3.6%
0.3%
1.0%
Mobile
Operators
General
economy
Productivity
increase
Total impact
Mobile ecosystem
3.8
0.9
2.6
1.8
10.5
1.5
Infrastructure
& suppORT
serviceS
Network
operators
Handset
Distributors
manufacturers & retailers
Content
& services
Mobile
ecosystem
38
39
107.3
57.3
35.4
135.7
336
335.7
17%
2013
Corporate
tax
414
Employee
income
& social
security
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(M)
2,367
3.6%
2,634
4.0%
4.2%
3,113
4.4%
3,328
4.6%
3,560
4.8%
3,803
4.9%
4,055
10.5
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
11.4
12.2
12.9
13.5
14.2
14.8
15.4
5.1%
2013
2013
2020
TOTAL
2,882
465
100%
40%
Handset VAT
& customs
398
447
32%
11%
Service
VAT
359
379
430
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2020
9. GSMA /Deloitte study (2012): What is the impact of mobile telephony on economic growth
40
41
2.2
Reduced Prices
Firstly, driven by competition in the wireless market, mobile broadband prices, both
in personal computer connectivity (through USB modems) plans and in data plans for
smartphones, have been significantly reduced in recent years. Service tariffs in Latin
America have dropped between 7.3% for dongles and 52% for smartphones in the last
three years.
Pricing Flexibility
Secondly, mobile broadband offers pricing flexibility that allows consumers to purchase
services based on what they can afford (by day, by download volume, or by type of
Internet service being accessed).
(%)
15-20%
Shared use of
mobile accesses
31%
26%
33%
31%
Mobile
Financial Services
electricity
Sanitation
10. http://www.analysysmason.com/Templates/Pages/KnowledgeCentreArticle1.aspx?id=13066
42
43
11. GSMA: The rise of connected devices will drive mobile operator data revenues past voice revenues globally by 2018
12. The World Bank
13. GSMA mWomen: Women & Mobile: A Global Opportunity, 2010
44
45
US$ 200M
GERMANY
80%
UK
60%
IVORY COAST
CONGO
40%
GUINEA
SUDAN
20%
ETHIOPIA
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
14. http://www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/GPM-Bi-annual-Report_July13.pdf
15. http://www.gsma.com/publicpolicy/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/gsma-deloitte-impact-mobile-telephony-economic-growth.pdf
46
47
1,329
In the developing world context, the primary
challenge for cities is typically over-congestion
(both urban density and traffic volume) caused by
the unprecedented rapidity of urbanisation in the
past 10-20 years. A further challenge is to develop
the educational, transport and communication
infrastructure to incubate talent and to attract
industry and commerce.
In some developing regions, urban growth has often
translated into an increasing number of people
living in informal settlements, increasing poverty
and inequality. Many developing market cities are
characterized by insufficient basic infrastructure,
particularly in low-income areas, where mobile
991
682
74
74
Pre 2005
Other
309
443
Cumulative
launches
111
149
195
282
338
239
161
87
37
38
2005
2006
mAgri
46
2007
2008
Mobile Money
2009
2010
2011
2012
mHealth
16. http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf
48
49
Source: iHUB
Northern Africa
Western Africa
Eastern Africa
Southern Africa
WikiStartp.tn
Flat6Labs.com
PlugAndPlayEgypt.com
Tahrir2.com
JokkoLabs.net
iLabLiberia.org
MobileWebGhana.org
mFriday.org
CCHubNigeria.com
WennovationHub.com
ActivSpaces.com
IceAddis.com
iHub.co.ke
HiveColab.org
TheHubKampala.com
kLab.rw
Teknohama.or.tz
mLab.co.za
Google.co.za/Umbono
BongoHive.com
i-Hub.mg
Senegal
Tunisia
Egypt
Ethiopia
Kenya
Dakar
jokkolabs
Tunis
wiki start up
Giza
Flat6Labs
Addis Abeba
Iceaddis
Nairobi
iHub
Nailab
Cairo
PlugAndPlayEgypt.com
Alexandria
Tahrir2
Uganda
Rwanda
Tanzania
Madagascar
Zambia
Kampala
HiveColab 2010
@TheHubKampala
Kigali
kLab 2012
Dar es Salam
DTBi 2011
Kinu
Antananarivo
Hub 2011
Lusaka
BongoHive 2011
South Africa
Cameroon
Nigeria
Ghana
Liberia
Cape Town
Umbono
Douala
ActivSpaces
Lagos
Co-CreationHub Nigeria
WeinnovationHub
Accra
Mfriday
Mobile Web Ghana
Mest
Monrovia
iLabLiberia 2011
Pretoria
mlab 2011
17. http://www.visionmobile.com/product/the-european-app-economy/
50
51
50 million
18. Jake Kendall, Nataliya Mylenko and Alejandro Ponce, Measuring Financial Access Around the World (June 2010), Policy Research Working Paper 5253, The World Bank. Available at http://elibrary.worldbank.
org/doi/book/10.1596/1813-9450-5253
19. CGAP, GSMA, and McKinsey & Company Mobile Money Market Sizing Study (2010)
52
53
THE digital
futurE
ALL TECHNOLOGIES
11.3Bn
6.9Bn
2013
25.7Bn
BIG DATA ANALYTICS
750
EXABYTES
13,000
EXABYTES
2020
2020
35%
Automotive
Smart Cities*
Handsets/Tablets
PCs/Laptops
Other M2M
Consumer Electronics**
CLOUD TECHNOLOGY
2013
70%
2020
3D PRINTING
2013
2013
10.8Bn
2020
US$ 48tn
7.7bn
2020
Health
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
US$ 200Bn to
US$ 400Bn
Source: GSMA; Machina Research
~0%
5-20%
2020
US$
4.5
trillion
per annum
Ensuring a
healthy and
prosperous
digital future
The world of 2020 will offer a range of lifeenhancing services powered by a vibrant mobile
ecosystem that connects the physical and digital
worlds. The benefits of mobility will spread
beyond communications to provide dramatic
improvements in sectors such as energy
efficiency, security, health and education.
on government spending.
Innovation in technology presents the opportunity
to address these pressing needs of society. The
combination of strong growth in the number of
connected devices together with exponential growth
in average data consumption highlight the important
role that connectivity will play in addressing these
issues in 2020. When coupled with innovations in big
data analytics, cloud computing and 3D printing the
opportunity to connect the physical and the digital
provides a unique platform to improve quality of life
and productivity.
Cloud Technology
2013
750 Exabytes
13,000 Exabytes
2013
35%
2020
2020
70%
3D Printing
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
US$ 200Bn to
US$ 400Bn
2013
~0%
2020
5-20%
56
57
The GSMA has identified four key growth areas that present both
significant opportunities and benefits for consumers, as well as providing
clear opportunities for mobile operators to collaborate and in doing so to
play an active role in delivering these opportunities and benefits.
2020
The world of
Personal Data
Connected Living
Digital Commerce
Network 2020
59
3.2
The Personal Data opportunity
3.2.1
60
61
3.3
Connected Living linking the
physical and digital worlds
There will be a dramatic rise in the number of
mobile connections (including handsets, tablets
and machine-to-machine devices), with the number
forecast to reach 11 billion by 2020 (while the total
number of connected devices across all access
technologies could reach 25 billion). This new class
of devices will be a key enabler of a new category of
services that improve quality of life and productivity
of consumers, society and enterprises by linking
physical and digital worlds.
11.3Bn
6.9Bn
2013
2013
25.7Bn 10.8Bn
2020
Health
2020
Automotive
US$ 24Bn
US$ 196Bn
Smart Cities*
Consumer Electronics**
US$ 92Bn
US$ 70Bn
Other M2M
PCs/Laptops
US$ 48Bn
Handsets/Tablets
US$ 336Bn
US$ 351Bn
*GSMA definition of Smart
** Handsets, PCs/laptops & tablets
22. http://connectedlife.gsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Global_Impact_2012.pd
62
63
On the go
Connected Devices/Cars
IN THE HOME
Connected Home
IN THE CITY
Smart Cities
AND BEYOND
Agriculture
3.3.1
New services have been launched and are already having an impact in a range of industries
including financial services, healthcare, education and agriculture; in both developed and
developing markets.
64
65
3.4
Digital Commerce placing mobile
at the heart of future commerce
New mobile technologies are profoundly changing
the way in which people and businesses buy and
sell goods and services. Mass-market smartphones,
with touchscreens, fast connections and an array
of feature-rich applications, are extending the
convenience and interactivity of online commerce into
the physical bricks and mortar world.
All types of commerce will have the potential to be
completed on connected devices, unrestricted by
geographical boundaries and with digital wallets
integrating all stores of value. Intelligence will
be integrated into the commerce environment
via digital identity to maximise the value for the
customer and optimise efficiency for the service
provider.
Individuals increasingly interact with mobile
commerce services from many different providers
and in many different ways. To reduce this
complexity, consumers need a straightforward and
consistent approach to organising digital vouchers,
loyalty programmes, payment cards, tickets and
other items. A mobile wallet can meet that need: a
3.4.1
23. GSMA forecast based on Informa data. Service revenues do not include the value of goods sold or value transacted.
66
67
3.5
Network 2020: a key pillar of the
digital future
Mobile networks will be at the heart of the all-IP
mobile broadband era. They will serve an everincreasing volume of data, enabling a vast array of
innovative services. In order to be able to provide
connectivity on a cost-effective and sustainable basis,
mobile networks will need to be smarter, responsive,
modular, flexible, scalable, adaptable and open.
If the current pace of change in customer demand
and behaviour is to be met, and market forecasts
for data traffic growth become a reality, then capex
and operational expenditure will need to come under
considerable scrutiny to make the business case for
continued network evolution viable for operators.
Capex spend in particular must enable new
functionalities to be installed into the network which
can be used to unlock new revenue streams.
Mobile services will increasingly migrate into the
Cloud to deliver on the promise of service access
anytime, anywhere through any device; such services
will be dependent on the availability of consistent
high speed, low latency connections.
68
3.5.1
69
70
INCREASED
COLLABORATION
Realising the potential of
this digital future will require
increased industry and
ecosystem collaboration.
Policy measures
to drive the
growing economic
and social benefits
of mobile services
Asia Pacific
Digital Dividend
700MHz Band
119Bn
US$ 1Tn
156,000
2,100,000
Latin America
600-800MHz
ADDITIONAL
SPECTRUM
WILL NEED TO BE
ALLOCATED FOR
MOBILE USE BY 2025
Sub-Saharan Africa
Digital Dividend
US$ 370Bn
US$ 49Bn
112,000
506,000
North Africa
Digital Dividend,
2.6GHz & 1.8GHz
Digital Dividend,
2.6GHz & 1.8GHz
US$ 57.5Bn
US$ 50.5Bn
700MHz Band
1,900,000
4,000,000
74
| Policy measures
Policy measures |
75
Region
Additional
jobs (by 2020)
Europe
Digital Dividend
119Bn
156,000
Asia Pacific
700MHz band
US$ 1Tn
2,100,000
Latin America
700MHz band
US$ 370Bn
112,000
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Digital Dividend
US$ 49Bn
506,000
Digital Dividend,
2.6GHz & 1.8GHz
US$ 57.5Bn*
1,900,000*
North Africa
Digital Dividend,
2.6GHz & 1.8GHz
US$ 50.5Bn*
4,000,000*
*By 2025
76
| Policy measures
Policy measures |
77
78
| Policy measures
Policy measures |
79
80
| Policy measures
Policy measures |
81
Source:
Personal Data
Connected Living
Digital Commerce
Network 2020
Connect the
physical and
digital worlds
Enable and
build the digital
commerce
ecosystem
REGULATION
Create data protection
laws which reflect the
realities of the online
world
Advocate standardsbased global
authentication solutions
that take advantage of
mobile device ubiquity
Establish a regulatory
environment to enable
consumers to use mobile
devices to pay for goods
through a digital wallet
82
| Policy measures