Reliability Engineering 19 (1987) 29-39

Condition Parameter Based Approach to Calculation of

Reliability Characteristics
J. K n e z e v i c
University of Exeter, Department of Engineering Science,
Engineering Building, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QL, Great Britain
(Received: 14 January 1987)

ABSTRACT
The classical approach to the calculation of reliability characteristics is based
on the probability distribution of time to failure. The system under
consideration is accepted as a 'black box' which performs the required function
until it fails. This paper presents an 'engineering' approach to the calculation
of reliability characteristics which attempts to obtain the same results at the
same time providing information about 'what is going on inside the box'.
According to the new approach, reliability characteristics have been
determined using the probability distribution of a relevant condition
parameter which fully describes the condition of the system in every instant of
operating time. It is applicable to those systems whose components fail
gradually. This approach offers greater potential for practical application in
maintenance theory. The proposed approach can also be used as a method for
accelerated testing for reliability of engineering systems and their
components.
'Reliability presents the ability of a system to perform required functions
under stated conditions for a stated period of time. This may be expressed as a
probability'. 1

1 INTRODUCTION
In reliability theory it is c o m m o n l y accepted that the reliability of a system is
quantitatively expressed through some characteristics such as reliability
function, hazard function, mean time to failure, etc.; these are called
reliability characteristics.
29
Reliability Engineering 0143-8174/87/$03,50 Elsevier Applied Science Publishers Ltd,
England, 1987. Printed in Great Britain

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.l. K n e z e v i c

The most c o m m o n approach in reliability theory to the calculation of

reliability characteristics is based on the probability distribution of random
variable, T, which represents the operating time of the system to failure.
According to this approach, the reliability function, R(t), is defined by the
following equation:

R(t) = P ( T > t)=

f(t)dt

(1)

where f(t) is the probability density function of T.

This approach considers only two possible states of the system: a state of
functioning and a state of failure. It leaves little room, if any, for the user to
follow the changes in the system during operating life. The system is
accepted as a 'black box' which performs the required function until it fails.
Such an approach is fully satisfactory from the point of view of
mathematical statistics, but from the point of view of engineering it is not,
because engineers, especially maintenance engineers, would like to know
'what is going on inside the box'. It is well known that the change in the
condition of the system is a real continuous process during operating life,
and that a system is able to perform its required function in spite of the fact
that its condition could vary within the tolerance range.
Neither the time-to-failure approach, which defines a reliability function
by the above equation, nor the stress-strength approach, 2'3 which is based
on the probability that stress will be less than strength, are capable of taking
into account the distinction of the satisfactory condition of the system.
Designers and users would like to have more of an 'engineering' approach to this is good
reliability which is based on the actual condition of the system and its change
and can go
during operating time. Therefore, there is room for the following question: Is
it possible to incorporate the condition of the system into a reliability to thesis
calculation?
The purpose of this paper is to present recent research which gives a
positive answer to the above question, i.e. which proposes a new approach
to the calculation of reliability of the system which is based on the condition
of its components.

2 R E L A T I O N S H I P BETWEEN C O N D I T I O N OF T H E SYSTEM
AND RELIABILITY
In order to provide the answer to the above question, let us analyse the
relation between all the parameters which have influence on the system's
transition from a state of functioning to a state of failure and the parameters
which describe its condition and performance. For this we will consider a

Calculation of reliability characteristics

31

hypothetical engineering system whose diagrammatical presentation is

given in Fig. 1, where:

1(11,12 .... ,Ira) denote the input parameters of a system which

characterise inherent differences in raw materials and manufacture,
together with operating conditions such as climate, terrain, the quality of
the roads, traffic intensity, the technical education of users, misusage,
storage, and so on;
O(O1, O2 . . . . . O,) denote the output parameters encompassing the
system's performance: speed, fuel consumption, power, voltage, current,
capacity, etc., and reliability characteristics;
R(R1,R 2..... Rj) denote the input parameters of the numerous
subsystems and components of which the system is composed and
indicate their operating regime: load, number of cycles per unit, intensity
of use, frequency, and so on;
C(C~, C2, , Ck) denote the output parameters of these subsystems and
components which are the indices of their condition: dimensions, weight,
geometry, etc.
Note that all the parameters presented are variable during operating
time, storage and transport.
It can be seen from the diagram that the desired performance of the
system is conditioned by the impact of all parameters from groups 'I' and 'R'.
We assume that some relationship exists between them, which can be shown
by the following expression:
O =f(I, R)

(2)

The symbol ~ should be understood more as an indicator which

physically describes that very complex relationship between parameters
than as a specific function.
It is clear that the input parameters of both the system I and the
components R have an impact which brings about a change in the condition
of the components as defined by the parameters 'C'. Some functional
II
12
I.

R1
R2 ~ "

--- C 1

01

= C2

02

Ci

R.
3
Im

=i[]

oi

Ck

Fig. 1.

Parameters which influence the state of the system.

on

32

J. Knezevic

dependence exists between them, which can be described by the following

expression:
C =.1(I, R)

(3)

It can be concluded from this expression that the condition of the system's
components is determined by both the operating condition and the
operating regime of the system.
By combining eqns (2) and (3) the following equation can be obtained,
which defines the functional dependence between the output parameters of
the system and the output parameters of the components, thus
O =f(C)

(4)

The last expression shows that there is some relationship between

performance and reliability of the system and its condition which allows us
to investigate the reliability of the system through the condition of its
components on one hand and provides the positive answer to the above
question on the other hand. It is necessary to point out again that the
above parameters are functions of time; therefore, according to the above
expression, the output parameters of the system in any instant of time are in
some way related to its condition parameters at that instant, thus

o(0 =f(c, t)

(5)

In order to express reliability of the system through the condition of its

components it is necessary to determine a way of describing the condition at
any instant of time and also find a way of describing the mechanism of
change in condition during operating life. Solutions are suggested according
to this approach in the next few sections.

3 DESCRIPTION OF THE CONDITION OF THE SYSTEM

In order to describe the condition of the engineering system or its
components in any instant of operating time, let us introduce the concept of
condition parameter. A condition parameter could be any characteristic
which is directly or indirectly connected with the system and its performance, and describes the condition of the system during operating
life. In every engineering system it is possible to detect several such
characteristics, only some of which will satisfy the following requirements:
(a)

full description of the condition of a system at every instant of

operating time;
(b) continuous and monotonic change during operating time;
(c) numerical definition of the condition of the system.

Calculation of reliability characteristics

33

The condition parameter which satisfies all of these requirements we will

call relevant condition parameter, RCP, because its numerical value fully
describes and quantifies the condition of the system at every instant of
operating time.
For a system as a whole, and its components, to be capable of functioning,
their relevant condition parameter must lie between certain limits defined by
the initial value, RCPin, and limiting value, RCPli m. Particular numerical
values for these intervals are set by design and manufacture. When this
parameter goes beyond the prescribed limits the component or system
begins to operate unsatisfactorily, and this qualifies as failure. In this case it
is assumed that failure occurs as soon as the relevant condition parameter
exceeds the limit set. Therefore, the operating life of a system is determined
by the time when the relevant condition parameter reaches this limiting level.
Our next task is to determine a way of describing the mechanism of that
change during operating life and incorporate it in the calculation of
reliability.

4 DESCRIPTION OF M E C H A N I S M OF C H A N G E IN

CONDITION
In order to determine a way of describing the mechanism of change in
condition, let us for the moment analyse the nature of these processes by
observing changes of relevant condition parameters during operating time.
Studies of processes of change in condition described by the relevant
condition parameter show that they are random processes because it is
impossible to predetermine how they will develop. 4 A particular process
may thus be expressed by a series of curves, as shown in Fig. 2, each having a
given probability of occurrence, hence it can only be described by using
probability theory.
Let RCP(t) denote the random function of time which describes the
random process of change in condition. Changes in RCP(t) with the passage
of time are conditioned both by external factors and by the course of
physical processes that take place inside the system. For each individual
system or component the change in RCPi(t ) has a completely random nature
which can only be described in a probabilistic way. At a given instant of time,
say tk, the random function RCP(t) can be described through the relevant
condition parameter which can have any value between the initial value,
RCPt,, and the maximum possible value, RCPmax, which can be presented
thus
RCPtn < RCP(tk) < RCPmaX

(6)

34

.I. Knezevic

R(t)

R(tk)

r(t)=r(~
RCPlim

~J

RCPin

Fig. 2.

Relation between related distributions: (m) values of RCP at instant tk; (O) instances
when RCP exceeds the limit value.

Therefore, in every instant of operating time the relevant condition

parameter, RCE is a random variable which can only be expressed through
probability function and its distribution. Generally speaking, this function
can have any continuous probability distribution.
One of the possible ways of expressing the probability distribution of
continuous random variables is the probability density function, f(.). The
probability density function of relevant condition parameter at the instant
of operating time t is denoted byf(RCP, t). There is an infinite number of
such distributions corresponding to the infinite number of possible instants
of operating time.
As a result of this, in practice accurate calculation of these distributions is

Calculation of reliability characteristics

35

connected with many insoluble mathematical problems. Some simplifications are therefore necessary.

4.1 Formal description of change in condition

In order to simplify the calculation of the process of change in condition
during operating time we will assume that all probability density functions
f(RCP, t) belong to one family of probability distribution. In this case the
distributive laws of vertical intersections of random function RCP(t) during
the operating time do not change. 5
Even with this assumption it is impossible in engineering practice to
determine parameters which define each of these distributions in every
instant of time, for obvious reasons, but it is possible to find numerical values
for some of them. Knowing the distribution of RCP in several instances of
time we still do not know the relation between them throughout operating
time.
In order to determine that relation we will consider parameters which
define these probability distributions, say Pl and P2, whose numerical values
can be approximated by some time-dependent function, e.g. pl(t) = ~l(t) and
p2(t) = ~bz(t). These will be called displacement functions.
As it has already been assumed the relevant condition parameter changes
continuously and monotonically during operating time, it is quite sensible to
assume that the random process RCP(t) and its displacement functions ~b(t)
also change monotonically.
As in engineering practice it is impossible to determine p~ and P2 at every
instant of time, the solution is to find as many points as possible which
present the values of p~i and p2 i of f(RCP, ti) at different instances of
operating time, i = 1, n. The displacement functions can be obtained quite
simply by using a points diagram, on the basis of which a regression line can
be drawn.
The accuracy of results obtained for a description of the mechanism of
change will directly depend on how close the assumptions are to real
processes of change in condition. Up to now we have proposed the
following:
(1) The reliability of the system can be expressed by the condition of the
system.
(2) The condition of the system at any instant of time can be described by
the relevant condition parameter.
(3) The state of failure is defined by the instant of time when the relevant
condition parameter exceeds its limiting level.
(4) The change in the condition of the system during operating time can
be defined by random function RCP(t).

36

J. Kne_-evic

(5) The relevant condition parameter in every instant of time is a random

variable which is fully defined by its probability distribution
function, e.g. f ( R C E t).
(6) The relation between probability density functions during operating
time is determined by displacement functions q/l(t) and ~2(t).
As a consequence of this the following statement could be made: In the case
considered, the probability of the value of the relevant condition parameter
being within the tolerance range at the instant of time tk is also the
probability of the reliable operation of the whole system at that instant, 6
thus
P(RCP~, < RCV(tk) < R C P u m ) = R(tk)
(7)
5 NEW A P P R O A C H TO D E T E R M I N A T I O N OF RELIABILITY
CHARACTERISTICS
In order to express the reliability function through a relevant condition
parameter which represents the real condition of the system, let us consider
the vertical intersection of the random process RCP(t), say at time t k (see Fig.
2). The probability that RCP(t), at instant t k, will have a value within
tolerance range, i.e. not exceeding the limiting value, can be defined as

RCPIim~
P(RCPin < RCP(t k) < RCPlim) =

RCPin .J

f(RCP, tk) d R C P

(8)

The above equation describes the probability that the random function
RCP(t) at that instant of time will have a value in the acceptable interval.
However, in the case considered, the probability of the value of the relevant
condition parameter being within the tolerance range at any instant of time t
is also the probability of the reliable operation of the whole system at that
instant (see eqn (7)), thus

RCPlirn
R({)

gcPin J f ( R C P , t) d R C P

(9)

The above equation shows that reliability function can bc obtained, taking
into consideration the mechanism of change in the condition of the system.
The integral on the right side of the above equation represents the
cumulative distribution function of the relevant condition parameter at
instant t, F(RCP, 0, within given limits. As the numerical value of the lower
limit is obviously equal to zero, eqn (9) could be rewritten thus:

{RCPlim
R(t) = F(RCP, t) aCP,n = F(RCP"m' t)

(10)

Calculation of reliability characteristics

37

Applying the proposed approach, other reliability characteristics could

easily be determined, for example mean time to failure, MTTF, can be
expressed by the following equation:

MTTF= ~f F(RCP.m,t)dt

(11)

Relating this approach to the classical one, the reliability function defined
by eqn (1) presents the intersection of random process RCP(t) and the
limiting value of relevant condition parameter, thus
R(tk) = P ( T >

tk) =

; f(t,

RCP = RCP.m)dt =

tk

f f(Odt

(12)

tk

where f(t, RCP = RCPIim) is the probability density function of the time
when the relevant condition parameter goes beyond its limiting value, which
was defined as failure (see Fig. 2).
Thus it is shown that it is possible to obtain the same numerical values for
reliability characteristics using the new approach which is based on the
condition of the system.
Therefore, reliability characteristics could be obtained using either the
probability distribution of time to failure or probability distribution of the
relevant condition parameter of the system. These two distributions are
related because one determines the other. The following equation
demonstrates this relationship:
d

[-RCPIim

/~ RCP

J J(

,')

dRCP]

(13)

Making use ofeqns (9) and (10), the above expression can be transformed
into
d
f(t) = --~- [F(RCPI, m, t)]
(14)
In some cases it will be easier to establish parameters px(t) and pz(t) of
f(RCP, t) than parameters off(t), which means that the proposed approach
can also be used as a method for accelerated testing for reliability of
engineering systems and their components.

6 CONCLUSIONS
The proposed approach presents novelty in reliability theory because the
numerical values of the reliability characteristics obtained are based on the
actual condition of the system and its change during the operating life. Such

38

d. Knezevic

an approach provides a fuller 'picture' of the condition of the system and its
components during the whole life time because it is based on continuous
process of change rather than the time-to-failure approach, which is based
only on the moments of the system's transition to a state of failure. This
information about changes in the condition of the system is very valuable for
engineers, particularly to the maintenance engineer, who can base
maintenance policy and strategy on the knowledge obtained by the
application of the approach here presented.
The proposed approach is, in general, applicable to all engineering
systems, but it is most likely that most of them will have a mechanical basis
because they are subjected to wear processes, i.e. processes with a gradual
deterioration of material.
The main difficulties in practical application of this approach are the
selection of relevant condition parameters and the determination of the
parameters of probability distribution of RCP(t). It cannot be taken for
granted that a relevant condition parameter exists in every engineering
system or that it will be always possible to find the function of change in
condition due to the limitations of available equipment which could limit the
application of this approach.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was financially supported by the Research Fund Committee of
Exeter University, UK. The author would like to thank the Department of
Engineering Science of the same university, and particularly Professor J. O.
Flower for his personal support and Dr J. L. Henshall for his assistance,
which made this paper possible.

REFERENCES
1. BS 3811, Glossary of Maintenance Terms in Terotechnology, British Standards
Institution, 1974.
2. Carter, A. D. S. Mechanical Reliability, Macmillan, London, 1973.
3. Kapur, K. C. and Lamberson, L. R. Reliability in Engineering Design, John Wiley
& Sons, New York, 1977.
4. Pronikov, A. S. Dependability and Durability of Engineering Products,
Butterworths, London, 1973.
5. Smirnov, N. N. and Itskovich, A. A. Obsluzivanie i Remont Aviatsionnoi Tehniki
po Sostoianiiu, Transport, Moskva, 1980.
6. Knezevic, J. Investigation of a strategy for control of maintenance processes in
engineering systems providing required reliability, PhD (in Serbo-Croatian),
University of Belgrade, 1985.

Calculation of reliability characteristics

39

APPENDIX
In order to illustrate the methodology presented for the description of
random function RCP(t), let us assume that the relevant condition
parameter, as random variable in every instant of operating time, obeys the
three-parameter Weibull distribution, with scale parameter n, shape
parameter B and location parameter RCPi,.
This distribution was chosen in preference to other theoretical probability
distributions because its range fully satisfies the range of relevant condition
parameter (see eqn (5)), whereas the range of others goes below RCPi., which
may introduce some numerical inaccuracies.
The probability density function f(RCP, t) will then have the following
form:

8(t)

(RCP -_ RCP,.~"'"- '

f(RCP, t) = [n(t) - RCP.n ] \ n(t) - RCPin )

exp {-[RCP-RCP'nl"'"~

L ~-R--e-~,.j

(A')

Taking into account eqn (10), the reliability function will be

)" /RCP,,m - RCP, n~B't"~
R(t) = 1 - exp t - \ n-~ Z RC---P~. -) J

(A2)

According to eqn (11), mean time to failure will have the following form:
MTTF=

1-exp

-- (RCPIim - RCP|n~
\

n(t)-RCP,.

~l

jjdt

(A3)