OECD Environmental

Outlook for Global

Chemicals Industry:
findings and lessons
learned
1st Mtg. of the UNEP Global Outlook Steering Grp.
29-30 June 2009

Michi OI
OECD/ENV/EHS

OECD Environmental Outlook

Outlook to 2020 (2001)
Request from OECD Environment Ministers (1998)
for developing a new strategy for the next decade.
To support such a strategy, a broad Environmental
Outlook report was prepared, which analyses
economic and environmental trends to 2020 for
selected economic sectors (e.g., chemicals) and
environmental variables.
Chemicals part is also published separately.
Outlook to 2030 (2008)
New Environmental Outlook to 2030 was further
developed by using updated data, models etc . 2

Outlook to 2030: Contents

4 Parts, 22 Chapters
I Drivers of Environmental Change
(Consumption/Production and Technology, Population,
Economic Development, Globalisation, Urbanisation etc.)

II Impacts of Environmental Change

(Climate Change, Air Pollution, Biodiversity, Waste and
Material Flows, Health and Environment etc.)

III Sectoral Development and Policies

(Agriculture, Fisheries, Transport, Energy, Chemicals,
Other selected Industries)

IV Putting the Policies Together

(Environmental Policy packages, Global Co-operation etc.)
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Outlook to 2030: how developed?

Data: Statistics of OECD and IEA, Information
provided by Industries and member countries.

Model: Macro-economic modeling by OECD,

Environmental Impact modeling by the Netherland
Env. Assessment Agency (MNP) etc.

Drafted by: Drafting team of OECD Secretariat

Overseen by: The OECD Environment Policy
Committee (EPOC) and its subsidiary bodies.
Non-OECD countries also provide input through a
Global Forum on Sustainable Development (May
2007) .

Outlook to 2030 for Chemical Industry:

Facts on Past-Current (1)
Release and Use of hazardous chemicals
In general, steadily decreasing in OECD countries
(e.g. in the US and Canada 18% reduction of 152 chemicals
release in 1995-2002)

Use of Fossil Fuels in Chemicals Industry

OECD countries: progress in increasing energy efficiency.
(e.g. CO2 emission remained constant in the US in 19902003)
In BRIICS, energy consumption has been increasing rapidly
(e.g. the second largest energy consuming sector in China,
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18% of whole manufacturing)

Outlook to 2030 for Chemical Industry:

Facts on Past-Current (2)
Production and Use: Historical Trend
Growing sales about 1,500 billion US$ (1998) to 2,245
billion (2004)
Rapid growth in BRIICS (e.g. increasing 16.5% annually in
China, which becomes the world 3rd largest producer)
Shift of new chemical plants from OECD countries to
BRIICs (e.g. 120 large plants built in 2005, 50 were in China
and just one in the US.)

Outlook to 2030 for Chemical Industry:

Projected Chemicals Production
World growth with 3.4%/year in 2005 - 2030
(BRICs: 7.9%, OECD countries: 2.3%)
Change of global share (from 1998 to 2030):
BRICs 10.8% 23.5%, OECD 77.5 % 62.7%

Outlook to 2030 for Chemical Industry:

Key Messages
Information is limited on the risk to health and
environment by chemicals. Need for better
understanding of certain uses or sources of exposure
(e.g. chemicals used in Products)
Little is known about CO2 emissions from
chemicals industry in non-OECD countries. They are
expected to rise as chemicals production increases.
Nanotechnologies may reduce energy use and
pollution in the future, but their potential health and
environmental effects need careful assessment.
Chemicals industry in OECD countries is
continuing to progress in reducing releases pollutants
and minimising CO2 emissions.

Lessons from the OECD work:

Key Uncertainties
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Definition of Chemicals Industry

Impacts from Chemicals Industry
Production Data
Chemicals in Products
Data for Estimating Cost of Inaction
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Lessons from the OECD work

Uncertainty 1: Definition of Chemicals
Industry
There is no single definition of the Chemicals
Industry for statistical purposes.

Industry sectors included in the various sources in

the Outlook may not be strictly comparable.
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Definitions of Chemicals Industry

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Lessons from the OECD work

Uncertainty 2: Environmental Impacts
from Chemicals Industry
The economic model distinguishes the chemicals
sector from other industries, but the environmental
impacts models do not.
Data on environmental impacts may be derived
from other sources, but not sufficient (e.g. PRTR
data for limited number of countries only).
Difficulty to evaluate indirect impact (i.e. impact by
use of energy in chemicals industry, impact via the
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use and disposal of chemicals products)

Lessons from the OECD work

Uncertainty 3: Production Data
No data available on volume of global production
and use of chemicals.
Production data used are based on sales, which
may not correlate directly to volume of
production/use.
Less data for non-OECD countries. Data are
provided by industries (ACC and CEFIC) which
covers yearly global sales of chemicals in each
area/country.
Mixing data from different sources is difficult

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Lessons from the OECD work:

Uncertainty 4: Chemicals in Products
Release of substances occur not only during
production but also use of products that uses
chemicals.
Limited information on chemicals in products,
makes difficult to document the risk due to
releases from products.

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Lessons from the OECD work:

Uncertainty 5: Data for the estimation
of Cost of Inaction
Determining the cost of inaction is an important
consideration when suggesting policy choices,
but sufficient data for the estimation were not
available.

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Conclusion
Need to set clear definition and boundary
of the target.
Chemicals, Chemicals Industry Impact
from Chemicals Industry etc.
Need to assess data availability first,
especially for developing countries, as it is
the biggest constraint for the boundary
setting.
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Further Information on
OECD Environmental Outlook

www.oecd.org/environment/outlookto203
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