Application of Fuzzy Logic To A Zonal Hydrological Water Resource

Allocation System in Malate, Manila

Danilo C. Terante, PhD1, Earl Mikhail D. Arce 2, Kim U. Mosquera2
Ray Franco G. Rivera2, Glenn Sullivan L. Uy2
1

Head, Hydraulics and Water Resources Engineering Division

Civil Engineering Department, De La Salle University-Manila
Co-chairman, Water Engineering Specialty Division
Philippine Institute of Civil Engineers National
2
Civil Engineering Department, De La Salle University-Manila

Abstract : In recent years, the problem of scarcity of water supply is becoming more alarming. The current water
allocation system in Malate, Manila does not take into account the different factors that may affect the effectiveness of the water
allocation system. This study addressed this problem through a newly devised zonal hydrological water resource allocation
system through the use of Fuzzy Logic. It also accounted the influence of the different land uses and water level of the serving
pumping station. It established a set of fuzzy rules that aimed to obtain the best output. The results of the fuzzy logic system
constituted a water allocation output that was verified using a two tailed one sample t- test and was represented through a
reference map that showed the influence of the different land uses and water level per barangay. The newly devised water
allocation system proved to be useful in the prioritization of the different land uses per barangay in terms of planning and
handling the water resource.
Key word s: Fuzzy Logic, Water Allocation System
1.

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Water has always been an essential part of

human life. It is vital in the development and
advancement of this world. However, as cities
continue to prosper and urbanization becomes
rampant, the quality and quantity of water resources
deteriorate.
A recent study done by the Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA) said that in the year
2025, if the Philippines do not start conserving water,
there will be a water scarcity crisis. Furthermore,
Angat Dam, which supplies 90% of the water
requirements for Metro Manila, is nearing the end of
its lifespan. In May 2014, the Angat Dam water level
went below the 180m critical water level for
irrigation and reached a water level of 179.96m. This
greatly affects the countrys ability to be on par with
other countries economically. Important aspects for
daily living such as Irrigation, power generation and
water supply will be cut down to meet the demands
of the people. As the area of Malate develops, the
demand for water will increase.
This study focused on the crisis that Metro
Manila is facing. It has established a fuzzy logic
based methodology of a zonal hydrological water
resource allocation system as governed by fuzzy

logic. The fuzzy logic system takes into account the

influence of water demand and water level of the
serving pumping station of Malate, Manila located in
Belen Street, Paco, Manila.
Fuzzy logic was introduced by Lofti A. Zadeh in
the year 1965. It is used as a multi-criteria decision
making tool that attempts to quantify human
subjectivity and its linguistic variables to mimic the
decisions made by experts. Being able to develop a
fuzzy logic based methodology of a zonal
hydrological water resource allocation system
mitigates the risks associated with water shortage in
different land uses, and maximizes the benefits while
minimizing costs for the whole system. This secures
the future of our water resources by being able to live
in a sustainable environment, in which the quality
and quantity of Malates water resources are not
compromised as years go by.
2.

THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

Lotfi A. Zadeh in the year 1965 first introduced

the term fuzzy logic. According to the theory, it can
quantify human approximations in order to be able to
model them mathematically. The study made use of
this concept in developing an artificial intelligence
system which decides which approach is deemed as

the best solution based on human decisions in water

allocation.
In this study, two variables are considered
Water Demand based on Land Use and Available
Water Supply based on Water Level.
Water demand goes hand in hand with land use
as land use directly affects the water consumption in
a given area. In the study, Water Demand is
categorized into three categories; Low, Medium and
High. These demands are based on four types of
Land Use, namely Residential, Semi-business,
Commercial and Industrial.
Available water supply is based on the current
water level of the primary reservoir that provides for
the study area of Malate, Manila. Water level is also
categorized into three categories; Low, Medium and
High.
The development of a fuzzy logic system is
where the study revolved. The study made use of the
theory of fuzzy logic in devising a water resource
allocation system that serves as a decision-making
analysis tool that is based on the rules that the
researchers have set. These rules come from the
researchers own personal judgment, a subjective
human decision. The main purpose of using fuzzy
logic is to quantify human subjectivity in decisionmaking to be able to interpret it up to a certain degree
of trueness. The results of the fuzzy logic system
were then interpreted through Quantum Geographic
Information Systems (QGIS).

The researchers focused on the theories

involving a zonal hydrological water resource
allocation and Fuzzy Logic. Water resource
allocation is a process that promotes coordinated
development and water and land management to
maximize the economic and social welfare outcome
without endangering the sustainability of ecosystems.
2.1 Fuzzy Logic
In Fuzzy Logic, vague data such as human-like
decision making are made quantifiable in order to
mimic the behaviour or the decision making skills of
a human being. It deals with the description of
uncertainties, much like the probability theory.
However, in Fuzzy Logic, it allows to represent
human decision and evaluation processes in
algorithmic form. It can derive a solution for a given
case out of rules that have been defined for similar
cases. Fuzzy logic effectively puts the knowledge
based from the user description into a solution.
2.2 Fuzzy Sets
In a fuzzy set, it defines the degree of
membership of elements that ranges from no
membership to complete membership. Consider the
Figure 2.2 below.

Figure 2.2 Fuzzy Set of Patients with strong fever

Figure 2.1 Conceptual Framework

Suppose that a patient is diagnosed with a strong

fever. Each body temperature shown in the figure is
associated with a certain degree to which it matches
the definition for strong fever. In the particular
figure, the darker the colour of the shade, the closer it
is to being a full member of the set of patients with
strong fever. Supposing that a patient has a
temperature of greater than 106.9 degree Fahrenheit,
the patient will be in complete membership of the set
of patients with strong fever, similarly, any patient
with less than 98.4 degree Fahrenheit will have no
membership from the set.

2.3 Membership Functions

Certain degrees of membership were mentioned
earlier in section 2.2. Membership functions are the
degree to which the value satisfies the linguistic
concept of the term of a linguistic variable. In the
case of the previous example, the linguistic variable
is strong fever. The degree of membership (x) is
often represented by two indicators. When x =0,
meaning it has no degree of membership, and when x
=1, meaning it has full or complete degree of
membership. Fuzzy sets define up to what extent a
value is a member of that certain set. It can range
from any value between x = 0 and x = 1. Figure 2.3
below shows how each value of temperature is
evaluated differently, and not as a threshold. This
defines the degree of membership of a certain value.

also gave the researchers ideas about how to set the

membership functions of the fuzzy logic system.
3.2 Research Design
The study made use of water demand data and
available water supply based on water level data.
These data were recorded monthly to monitor the
current water demand and water level of the serving
pumping station in Malate, Manila. These data were
obtained from the Manila City Hall and from
Maynilad Water Services, Incorporated located in
Arroceros Building, Ermita, Manila. The data
obtained were from trusted sources and has proven
their legibility through years of quality service and
experience. A confidentiality agreement between the
researchers and the respective source protects the
acquired data that is used in this study. The data
acquired is only for the purposes of this study. The
results of the study were then verified using a two
tailed one sample t-test and were interpreted by
mapping through QGIS.

Figure 2.3 Degree of Membership for Patients with

strong fever
3.

RESEARCH METHOD AND DESIGN

3.1 Research Methodology

Since this study focuses mainly on data
gathering, analysis and interpretation, several
methods will be used to complete the study:
3.1.1 Historical Method
For this study, the data that was gathered by the
researchers were obtained from the government.
These data are the recorded water level and water
demand from January 2014 to October 2014 which
was the only available data at the time.
3.1.2 Descriptive Survey Method
In determining the parameters for this, the
researchers had to interview people from government
agencies like NAPOCO, MWSS, and Maynilad
Water Services Inc. These interviews not only gave
the researchers an insight on how the water supply is
being calculated and distributed around Malate but

Figure 3.1 Research Design

The development of the fuzzy logic system is
shown in Figure 3.2. The process of the fuzzy logic
system starts with the setting of the membership

functions of the input variables. The membership

functions are calibrated based on the available data
and the researchers knowledge. After setting the
membership functions, the fuzzy rules are set based
on the researchers judgement. These rules define the
behaviour or the response of the whole fuzzy logic
system. The fuzzy logic system will then generate a
water allocation output based on the different
combination of water demand and water level.

Figure 3.2 Development of a Fuzzy Logic System

3.3 Summary of Procedure
The study started by identifying the problem in
the study area through past reports. Once the problem
of the deteriorating water quality and quantity was
identified, the researchers then identified the factors
that need to be considered for the development of a
water resource allocation system. Two factors were
considered namely the land-use based water demand
and available water supply through the current water
level. Once these factors were identified, necessary
data was gathered which was obtained from the local
government. The researchers then employed the use
of Fuzzy Logic as a tool in making the decision of the
amount of water allocation based on water demand
and water level. The setting of membership functions
and fuzzy rules were done using the Fuzzy Logic
Tool in MATLAB and is an iterative process that is
based on the researchers judgment. The water
allocation output was verified using a two tailed one
sample t-test. If the output did not meet the
requirements of the verification test then the
membership functions and fuzzy rules are adjusted.
The adjustment of the membership functions and
fuzzy rules is further discussed in Section 5.2.1. The
results are then interpreted through mapping with the
aid of QGIS.

Figure 3.3 Summary of Procedure

4.

SUMMARY OF RESULTS

4.1 Data Gathering

This section presents the data that is gathered,
processed, and used by the researchers in this study.
There are two factors that were considered when
allocating water which were the water level of Ermita
pumping station and the water demand of the
barangay per land use. The researchers were able to
successfully acquire data for both factors from
Maynilad and MWSS.
4.1.1 Water Consumption Input for January to
October 2014 period
From the interviews the researchers had with the
Maynilad engineers, it was mentioned that Maynilad
considers the water demand to be equal to the
consumption of water and so the data that is obtained
represents the consumption of water from the month
of January to October. The water consumption was
obtained from a Meter Reading Unit or MRU
reading. And this water consumption data is
simplified by getting the average reading of each
month.

Since the MRUs are reading the water

consumption of an area instead of directly connecting
to a barangay, the researchers had to obtain data
pertaining to which MRU was reading the
consumption of the desired barangay. When an MRU
would have more than one barangay under its area of
responsibility the consumption is multiplied with a
weight factor that is based from the population of the
barangays that are in the area of responsibility. The
weight factor is computed as:

 =

 

basis in the calibration of the membership functions

in fuzzy logic.
4.2 Data Results and Discussion
4.2.1 Fuzzy Logic
This section discusses the fuzzy logic system
component of the research. It explains the basis in the
setting of fuzzy rules and membership functions.
4.2.1.1 Fuzzy Rules


       

(Eq. 4.1)
where:
n - corresponding barangay involved

The fuzzy rules define how the fuzzy logic

system will behave. It is set subjectively by the user
based on his or her professional judgment. Figure 4.1
below shows the rule editor panel in the Fuzzy tool in
MATLAB.

After sorting out which barangays were

connected to which MRU, the water consumption per
land use such as Residential, Semibusiness,
Commercial, and Industrial is obtained.
The consumption of each barangay per land use
is added together which results to the total
consumption as shown in Table 5.5. These water
consumptions are used as inputs for the water
demand variable of the fuzzy logic system which will
be discussed later on in the chapter.
4.1.2 Reservoir Water Level Input for January to
October 2014 period
With the interview the researchers had with the
engineers of Maynilad Water Services Inc. it was
discovered that the Ermita Pumping Station is the
reservoir that directly supplies water to the area of
Malate. Being the direct source of water for Malate,
the researchers obtained the monthly reading of the
water level for 2014.

Figure 4.1 Rule Editor

The researchers have set a total of 27 rules for
the fuzzy logic system. These rules are a combination
of the two input variables membership functions.
The complete rules stated in the fuzzy logic system
are listed down in Figures 4.2.

For this study the researchers compiled all of the

average monthly water level in meters. These water
levels were used as inputs for the water level variable
in the fuzzy logic system which is discussed later on
in the chapter.
4.1.3 Projected Water Allocation (2015)
The projected water allocation data of 2015 is
obtained
from
Maynilad
Water
Services,
Incorporated. It is based on the actual water
consumption data recorded by the MRUs from the
previous year. The water projection data is used as a
Figure 4.2 Fuzzy Rules

Each rule was defined by the researchers based

on their personal and professional judgment.
4.2.1.2 Membership Functions
The membership functions define the degree to
which each linguistic variable is held true. The
researchers have calibrated each membership
function of each variable to obtain the desired output.
A. Water Consumption
Figure 4.3 shows the membership functions for
the water consumption input variable.

Figure 4.5 Water Allocation Membership Functions

The full range of the water allocation output
was set from 0 to 3 million liters per day (MLD). The
researchers have set a total of 11 membership
functions for water allocation.
4.2.2 Analysis of Results
The data that is used in the fuzzy logic system
are based on two factors; the water level of the
Ermita pumping station and the water demand of
each barangay in terms of MLD. The water allocation
output of this research was expressed in MLD.

Figure 4.3
Functions

Water

Consumption

Membership

Table 4.1 Fuzzy Logic Water Allocation Output in

terms of MLD for each Barangay at different water
levels

The full range of the water consumption input

was set from 0 to 3, all in terms of million litres per
day (MLD). There were 9 membership functions set
in total for water consumption.
B. Water Level
Figure 4.4 below shows the membership
functions for the water level input variable.

Figure 4.4 Water Level Membership Functions

The full range of the water level input was set
from 0 to 9 metres. The researchers have set a total of
four membership functions; Critical, Low, Medium
and High.
C. Water Allocation
Figure 4.5 below shows the membership
functions for the water allocation output variable.

The data that is presented in Table 4.1 is the

water allocation output of the fuzzy logic system that
was devised. These data represent the water
allocation of each barangay in terms of MLD at
different water levels. In the column under Brgy it
shows the corresponding barangay and the columns
next to the Brgy column shows the water allocation
in MLD at a certain water levels which is indicated at
the second row from the top.

Table 4.4 Snippet of the Water Allocation Output per

land use in terms of MLD at 6.3m Water Level
Earlier in the study the list of fuzzy rules were
presented in Figure 4.2. It can be observed from the
results that the rules programmed were followed
properly by the fuzzy logic system. A general
behaviour of the rules was that as the water level
increases the amount of water allocation also
increases. An example of this rule being observed is
at barangay 688, as the water level increased from
4.6m, 6.3m, and 8.5m the water allocation also
increased from 0.0155 MLD, 0.14 MLD, and 8.5
MLD respectively.

Table 4.5 Snippet of the Water Allocation Output per

land use in terms of MLD at 8.5m Water Level

In order to allocate the water in terms of the

different land uses, a weighting factor with respect to
the land use was multiplied to the total water
allocation output in terms of MLD. The values for the
weighting factors for the different land uses per
barangay as shown in Table 4.2 are computed by the
equation 4.2 as indicated below.

  
 =

 
   
   

 
   
  

 100

4.2.3 Verification

(Eq. 4.2)
Table 4.2Weighting Factors for the different land
uses

In order to calibrate and verify if the results

generated from using the fuzzy logic system was
valid, the fuzzy logic water allocation output (Table
4.1) was compared with the projected water
allocation (Table 5.9) obtained from Maynilad using
a statistical method (See Appendix E). The method
that was used was a two-tailed one sample t-test. The
one sample t-test has a formula of:
 =






(Eq. 4.3)

where:
Tables 4.3 to 4.5 below shows the water
allocation output per land use for each barangay at
water levels 4.6m, 6.3m and 8.5m respectively.
Table 4.3 Snippet of the Water Allocation Output per
land use in terms of MLD at 4.5m Water Level

x = projected average in terms of MLD per respective

barangay that was obtained from Maynilad for year
2015
= amount of water allocation output in terms of
MLD that was obtained from the Fuzzy Logic system
s = standard deviation of the projected water
allocation MLD per month from January to October
n = number of data (January to October, n = 10)
Null Hypothesis (H0): u1 = u2
Alternative Hypothesis (H1): u1 u2

The null hypothesis is the projected water

allocation (u1) from Maynilad is equal to the water
allocation output (u2) from the fuzzy logic
system.The alternative hypothesis is u1 is not equal to
u2. The null hypothesis is true if the computed t-value
is within the acceptance region. Otherwise, the
alternative hypothesis is true when it falls in the
critical region.

4.2.4 Reference Map

The reference map that was used was provided
by Bing Maps available through Quantum
Geographic Information System (QGIS). The
boundaries of each Barangay were traced using QGIS
to visually represent the quantity of water allocation.
Each polygon represents a barangay with its own
corresponding label (Figure 4.6).

Table 4.6 Summary of Verification for each barangay

Figure 4.6 Barangay 688 to 744 and its Boundaries

The t that is obtained using equation 4.3 is

checked if it is within the acceptance range of the tcritical value. The t-critical value is obtained using
the t-table having a 98% confidence level and 9
degrees of freedom (df). df is computed by:
 = 1
 = 10 1 = 9

(Eq. 4.4)

Having these values, a range of -2.821 to 2.821

was obtained for t-critical. To verify if the obtained
value is significant, the value should be within tcritical.
From the data that was attained using the fuzzy
logic system, 31 out of 54 barangays or 57% of the
data have a t-value that is within the range of tcritical or were accepted in the null hypothesis. The
low percentage of acceptance may be due to the
errors in the calibration of the membership functions.
However, it is almost impossible to calibrate the
membership functions to have an accepted
percentage of 100%. It can then be considered that
the calibration of the fuzzy logic system is generally
acceptable.

There were three scenarios that were picked to

be showed in the map. One at 4.6m since it is the
lowest water level possible in our system, 6.3m
because it is the average water level of the reservoir
from the year 2014 and 8.5m because it is the highest
water level that was recorded in 2014. These water
levels were analysed using the fuzzy logic system
with another variable which is the water demand of
each barangay. The output of the fuzzy logic system
which was stated earlier to be the water allocation in
terms of MLD was then converted as an index value.
This value was used as the input for the QGIS maps.
The researchers have decided to convert the
water allocation output to an index value because in
the QGIS tool, only pure decimal or pure integer
values can be encoded and the water allocation
outputs are a mixture of both.
The index value was calculated using the index
equation (Equation 4.5). The divider used was 3 since
it is the highest water allocation output in terms of
MLD that can be obtained in the fuzzy logic system.
The index of each barangay is shown in Table 4.7.
 
= water allocation output in MLD / 3
(Eq. 4.5)

Table 4.7 Index for each Barangay at different water

levels in MLD

Figure 4.9 Total Water Allocation at 4.6m Reservoir

Water Level

The index value was encoded into the index

column of the QGIS program as shown in Figure 4.7.

Figure 4.10 Total Water Allocation at 6.4m Reservoir

Water Level
Figure 4.7 Index Column in QGIS
The colour of each barangay changes depending
on the index number that is entered. The colour
changes from light to dark with its corresponding
index value from 0 to 1. As the colour changes from
light to dark, the amount of water allocation
increases. The researchers have assigned an
increment of change of 0.025.
The results in Table 4.7 were visually
represented through QGIS and are shown in Figures
4.9 to 4.11 below. Figure 4.9, 4.10, and 4.11 shows
the total water allocation at 4.6m, 6.3m, and 8.5m
water level respectively. The succeeding figures
show the water allocation per land use; Residential,
Semi-business, Commercial, Industrial.

Figure 4.8 Corresponding Colour Range for Total

Water Allocation

Figure 4.11 Total Water Allocation at 8.5m

Reservoir Water Level
Barangay 699, 698, 697, 701, and 719 are the
notable areas which have a remarkable increase in
water allocation as the water level increases.
4.2.4.1 Residential

Figure 4.12 Corresponding Colour Range for

Residential Water Allocation

4.2.4.2 Semi-Business

Figure 4.13 Residential Water Allocation at 4.6m

Reservoir Water Level

Figure 4.16 Corresponding Colour Range for SemiBusiness Water Allocation

Figure 4.14 Residential Water Allocation at 6.3m

Reservoir Water Level

Figure 4.17 Semi-Business Water Allocation at 4.6m

Reservoir Water Level

Figure 4.15 Residential Water Allocation at 8.5m

Reservoir Water Level
For figures 4.13 to 5.15, a notable barangay that
can be observed is barangay 740 which have an
identical water allocation to barangay 719 regardless
of its land area. This suggests that the water
allocation for this barangay is generally allocated for
residential land use. It can be also be observed that all
of the barangays demand water allocation for
residential.

Figure 4.18 Total Semi-Business Water Allocation at

6.3m Reservoir Water Level

Figure 4.19 Semi-Business Water Allocation at 8.5m

Reservoir Water Level

For semi-business, some of the barangays have a

limited water allocation for such land use due to the
fact that the area does not possess much semibusiness areas. However, barangays 719, 701, 699,
698 and 697 have a significant change in water
allocation which suggests that those areas are prolific
in semi-business land use.
4.2.4.3 Commercial

Figure 4.23 Commercial Water Allocation at 8.5m

Reservoir Water Level

Figure 4.20 Corresponding Colour Range for

Commercial Water Allocation

For commercial, it can be observed that

barangays 701, 699, 698 and 694 are the areas that
manifest a large amount of commercial land use since
the water allocation is relatively high. However for
barangay 699 and 701, although it follows the trend
that as water level increases, water allocation
increases, it may not be completely accurate because
it is not in the accepted region of the t-test.
4.2.4.4 Industrial

Figure 4.21 Commercial Water Allocation at 4.6m

Reservoir Water Level

Figure 4.22 Commercial Water Allocation at 6.3m

Reservoir Water Level

Figure 4.24 Corresponding Colour Range for

Commercial Water Allocation

Figure 4.25 Industrial Water Allocation at 4.6m

Reservoir Water Level

can be seen. As an example, Barangay 719 has a

dominant colour of blue which means its water
allocation is highly used for semi business and
Barangay. 699 has a colour of red which means its
water allocation is mostly used for commercial.
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Figure 4.26 Industrial Water Allocation at 6.3m
Reservoir Water Level

Figure 4.27 Industrial Water Allocation at 8.5m

Reservoir Water Level
And for industrial land use, the amount of water
allocation in this area is very minimal since there are
only a few industrial businesses in the area.
4.2.4.5 Influential Land Uses
Through the visualization of each land use, it is
possible to identify the most influential land use per
barangay in terms of water allocation.

5.1 Conclusions
In the end the researchers were able to devise a
zonal hydrological water resource allocation system
using a fuzzy logic based methodology. The
researchers were also able to establish fuzzy rules
and membership functions to dictate the behaviour of
the fuzzy logic system.
Based from the results of the study with the help
of the reference map through QGIS, a better
visualization of the influence of the different land use
and reservoir water level can be observed. The
researchers have observed that commercial and semibusiness land uses generally have more contribution
in the total water allocation in the study area. While
for the residential land use it was noted that it has an
influence to all barangays. Lastly, in reference to the
occurrence with barangay 740 and 719 where they
had almost identical water allocations, it was
observed that a larger land area does not necessarily
constitute a higher water allocation.
From the results of this study it can be concluded
that fuzzy logic is a suitable tool for water allocation.
In addition, the reference maps can aid urban
planners and concessionaires in the future in planning
and handling the water allocation system in the study
area.
5.2 Recommendations
The researchers recommend for further study the
following:

Figure 4.28 Combination of All Land Uses Water

Allocation at 8.5m Reservoir Water Level
Figure 4.28 shows the water allocation when
reservoir water level is at 8.5 for the combination of
all the land uses. This is how the map would look like
if a combination of green for residential, blue for
semi-business, red for commercial and grey for
industrial is combined in one map. In this map, the
dominance of a certain land use in a certain barangay

a.) Consideration of other factors that may

affect the water allocation output value in
the system. This will further improve the
effectiveness of the research since it
considers a wider range of variables. This
study is limited to two factors only.
b.) A better calibration of the fuzzy logic
membership functions. A mathematical tool
or program that may train the behavior of
the data to the desired output of the
researchers. This will further optimize the
desired output from the fuzzy logic system.

c.) To relate the devised fuzzy logic system to

different study areas to have a global fuzzy
logic system that may be applicable to all or
most areas.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors would like to thank the following:
Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System
(MWSS), Maynilad Water Services Inc. (MWSI),
National Power Corporation (NAPOCOR), DLSUManila.
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