Philippine Equity Research

Oct 18, 2015

WEEKS HIGLIGHTS

Bullseye Report
Weekly Overview
Issue
Philippines
Peso-$
MSCI Phils
PLDT US
DJIA
SP500
Nasdaq
England
Nikkei
Hong Kong
China
US 30yr Bond
10-Yr Yield
Dollar Indx
Gold
Oil
GTX

Prev Wk
Last Wk Wk Chg Wk Chg % YTD %
7,139
7,056 (83.17)
(1.17)
(2.42)
45.870
46.050 0.180
0.39
2.97
36.75
36.36 (0.39)
(1.06)
(4.82)
49.200
48.570 (0.630)
(1.28)
(23.26)
17,084
17,216 131.48
0.77
(3.41)
2,015
2,033 18.22
0.90
(1.25)
4,830
4,887 56.22
1.16
3.18
6,416
6,378 (38.12)
(0.59)
(2.86)
18,439
18,292 (146.87)
(0.80)
4.82
22,459
23,067 608.57
2.71
(2.28)
3,183
3,391 208.20
6.54
4.84
156.21
157.91 1.70
1.09
4.05
20.990
20.230 (0.760)
(3.62)
(6.77)
94.880
94.590 (0.29)
(0.31)
4.38
1,155.60 1,177.40 21.80
1.89
(0.49)
49.49
47.73 (1.76)
(3.56)
(11.13)
2,735.80 2,650.95 (84.85)
(3.10)
(18.00)

Authored by:
Juanis G. Barredo
VP; Chief Technical Analyst
COL Financial Group Inc.
(632) 636-5411
Juanis.barredo@colfinancial.com
Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COLs Equity Research Dept as of
the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. The report is for informational
purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of a security.

The Philippines PSEi lost 83-pts pressured by resistance

Average Daily Value Turnover slipped to P6.5-B from P8.7-B the
week previous
Net foreign flows again showed a net sell of P1.9-B from P426-M
the previous week
The PSEi (at 7,056) reacted 1.1% after feeling some pressure close
to resistance. This triggered some profit taking and proceeds to
acknowledge a consolidation range for the meantime. The range
shows itself between the highs of 7,209-7,240 and the low of
6,720-6,600. MACD readings still show negative values and this
also a tender situation as it declares the rally to be tentative and
could still be prone to selective sell downs. But with higher-low
frames being put up, the short term rally initiative continues off a
medium term reactive trend. This would still offer a sell or lighten
into rallies towards resistance until the medium term down trend
can be overturned.
US markets along with Europe and parts of Asia did show some
continuation swings into rallies as well but could also face some
resistance pressures this week. The US Dollar bounced from its 1-Yr
MA and this forced some volatility back to Asian currencies. This
may prompt for a new fixed range for some of them. Gold prices
proceeded to rally while Oil slid but did bounce from support

Focus Items
Highlight
Philippines : Weekly Stats
Philippines : PSEi & Peso
Tech Map: Some key stocks and trend calls
US and Europe: In review
Asia: In review
Currencies & Commodities: In review

Page
2
3
4
5
6
7

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Page 2

Philippines: Weekly Stats**

*Source: PSE
PER data uses four-quarter
trailing financial data

16.5
20
(PHP Billions)
15
9.5
7.3
10
4.3 2.3
4.2
3.06
1.6
0.92
5
0.555
0.478 0.61 0.086
0.266
0
-5 -1.085
-0.282
-0.557
-0.566
-0.613
-0.745
-0.993 -2.1-2.5
-1.9
-2.02
-2.6-2.6 -2.51
-3.01 -2.1
-3.5 -3.7-2.4 -2.2
-4.9-3.2
-10
-5.66 -4.4 -3.6
-15
-11.8
-20
2015
Net
Outflows
of
P44.2-B
-25
-24.4
-30

Net Foreign Flows

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Page 3

Philippines: PSEi & Peso

Recommendation: Range trade to 1st or 2nd resistance
Support: 6,924-6,720 Resistance: 7,240 7,455
The PSEi slid up 83-pts for the week at 7,055 as sellers took
some profits as prices near resistance
But an earlier successful double support test emplaced the
necessary demand to enact a short term recovery from a
medium term down trend
Prices will now attempt a recovery to major averages
estimating resistance at 7,209-7,240 and then 7,482
A range trade then to such projected resistance spots is
offered; as always the recovery swing should be followed
with a protective stop on recent support lows (shown above)
Double Top Resistance Holds

Recommendation: Range trade (45.70 or <) to 47.00

Support: 45.70 - 45.50 Resistance: 47.00 - 47.18
The Peso-$ (at P46.05) weakened vs the Dollar and moves
into a short term consolidating trend after showing off a
double top high at 47
MACD reading confirm the consolidation drive and endorses
the range trade on the Peso-Dollar
As such we look to estimate support closer to 45.70-45.50
while resistance sits at the double tested high of 47.00
The Dollar is under watch as it recently tested its 260-day
MA and has so far bounced from this zone to consolidate
but any breach from the 260 may allow the Peso to firm

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Page 4

Some Key Stocks and Trend Calls

Tech Map
DIZ
JFC
MER

DD
MPI
NOW
SMPH
X

2GO
ABS
AC*
AEV
ALI
AUB
BDO
BEL
CAL^
COSCO
CROWN*
DAVIN*
DNL*
EDC
ELI
FED*
FGEN
GTCAP
IMI
ION
JGS
MBT
MEG
PGOLD
PIP
PNX
RLC
SBS
SCC*
SECB
SGI
SM

TA
UNI
URC

Legend:
AGI
ANS
APC
AT
BLOOM
BPI
CNPF
COAL
CPG
DMC
DMPL
EEI
EMP
EW
FNI
FPH
GERI
GLO
HLCM
ICT
IS
LC
LPZ
LR
LTG
MA
MARC
MAXS
MCP
MWC
MWIDE
NI

NIKL
ORE
OV
PCOR
PHA
PLC
PNB
PSE
PSPC
PX
PXP
RFM
ROCK
RRHI
RWM
SMC
STI
TAPET
TEL
UBP
VLL

5 (+1)

35 (+10)

53 (-5)

Up trends:
These issues show continuing if not strong up trends. Look for trading
buys now if risk-reward measures are appealing or if not, buy into
slight dips.

AP
AR
BHI
CEB
CHIB
CIC
FDC
FLI
FOOD
HOUSE
RCB
SSI

Up trends needy of reactions or are reacting:

These issues show continuing up trends but are showing some
reactive adjustments due to profit taking. Look for pullbacks to short
term support or a rally from such support to cast fresh buy trades.
Consolidations (Sideward trends):
These issues are running through consolidation phases. Either wait
for key range breaks or range trade and buy into a support bounce.
Keep watch of possible range break bias in the following direction
[~-up/down, ^-up, *-down).
Down trends needy of rallies or are rallying:
These issues show continuing down trends but are undergoing a
temporary/oversold rally. Lighten or sell into rebounds to resistance
for now.
Down trends:
These issues show continuing down trends. Stay out for now until
better demand patterns appear.

Stock Code Color Guide:

GREEN

Total Issues (change from last report)

3 (-1)

(Note: Trends are cast in the short term)

12 (-4)

RED
BLACK

-These issues improved their technical condition for the week

(moving to the left of their column category on the Tech Map)
-These issues deteriorated on their technical condition for the week
(moving to the right of their column category on the Tech Map)
-These issues carried the same technical condition for the week
(standing on the same column category on the Tech Map)

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US and European Markets

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

US & Europe proceed to recover

US markets drove higher after successfully
showing a retest of support lows. This is
what we wanted to see in order to
condition a more lingering rebound. Prices
have since rallied to or over one month
highs and stills shows some rally momentum
built in it its MACD
Prices will now target following resistance
zones as shown below
Short term Support and Resistance
estimates for US indices are the ff:
Dow: (S) 16,500 (R) 17,250-17,500
SP500: (S) 1,955 (R) 2,055-2,075
Nasdaq: (S) 4,487 (R) 4,900-4,960

US 10-Yr Bond Yields (roughly at 2.02%)

edged down for the week after bond prices
recovered. The 10-Yr Yield is now
consolidating (between 19.05-23.00) after
successfully holding over its August lows.
Yields may need to narrow its range before
any major decision its given
European indices showed generally
sideways shifts after its previous weeks
rally. The German DAX was up 0.08% for the
week while the French CAC was up 0.03%,
and the English FTSE was down 0.59%. The
FTSE and CAC have broken or is testing
September highs while the DAX still has to
test move back and test its Sept highs

Page 5

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Asian Markets
Asia was mixed but showed more recoveries
Asian markets did generally well as successful
support braces allowed rallies to proceed
China and Hong Kong outperformed after
establish strong support bases as well

Rising support frames, improving MACDs, and

some key breaks over 1st resistance zones do
show better recovery impulses
The PSEi (7055.74 -83pts WoW) eased as it
felt pressure over the overhang of
resistance this challenge was seen close to
its September high of 7,209. But prices have
established higher lows so far keeping rally
prospects open. Prices need to break over
this zone to up its target zone to 7,240 - 7455

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

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Currencies & Commodities

Dollar falls to support & rebounds, Euro &
Yen ease from Resistance; Gold climbs
The US Dollar index (94.59 -0.31% WoW)
was lower for the week after it encountered
heavy resistance close to 97; the price slip
pushed the Dollar below its rising trendline
and fell to its 1-Yr MA (94.04). It has so far
found some Support here
The Euro index (113.58 unchanged WoW)
was sideways for the week but did attempt
to push over resistance when the Dollar fell
to its 1-Yr MA If a higher low is made then
the Euro may re-angle up into the short term
The Yen index (83.71 +0.64% WoW)
[$119.46] was higher for the week but
maintains a short term pattern after a failed
attempt at resistance. The Yen needs to
break over 84.26 to induce more upward
recovery. Support is at 82.36
Gold ($1,177.40 +1.89% WoW) was higher
for the week and presented a very nice
breakout from a pattern. The push over
resistance ($1,156-$1,169) allowed it to
free itself from this pattern and target
$1,181-$1,208. Support is at $1,147
Copper ($2.40 -0.74%) reacted but is still in
rally mode
Oil ($47.73 -3.56%) eased from last weeks
strong move and may yet show some ranged
recovery action

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

1-Yr MA

Page 7