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If American political candidates have a favorite punching bag, it's
China. Wonkblog's Ana Swanson explains why so many candidates
change their tune once elected, and just how important the U.S.-China
relationship really is. (Jorge Ribas/The Washington Post)
The United States is rolling out the red carpet this week for the leader
of the worlds most populous country. Chinese President Xi Jinping
will first visit with tech executives and other industry leaders in
Seattle, then head to Washington to meet with President Obama.
The meeting is a touchstone moment in an increasingly tumultuous
relationship. The Obama administration has been preparing
sanctions against China following a wave of cyber-espionage from
Chinese hackers. And China has sparked the ire of U.S. businesses
and politicians by devaluing its currency and favoring Chinese
businesses over foreign ones.
Despite the tension, China remains one of the most important
countries in the world for Americans. China is so big and fastchanging that its actions ripple around the world and influence life
for average Americans determining the price of things we buy,
influencing what we make at our jobs, even changing the quality of
the air we breathe.
But maybe because of its size, or its distance, or its complexity, it can
be hard to grasp exactly why China matters. Here are seven questions
The lesser-known side of the story is that China is also now a major
consumer of U.S. goods. About one-quarter of the soybeans grown in
the U.S. go to China, as well as one in five of planes manufactured by
Boeing. Apple now sells more iPhones in China than in the U.S. China
China's appetite for resources is so big that the country actually used
more concrete in the last three years than the U.S. did in the entire
20th century. (This animation, which shows how Shanghai
transformed from 1987 to 2013, helps explain how that might be
possible.)
China is important to the U.S. for security reasons, too. China is now
the dominant power in East Asia, a region with close U.S. allies and
vital shipping lanes.
China and the U.S. have some serious conflicts, for example over
cyber attacks on government and business secrets, and Chinas
clashes with its neighbors over territory in the East China Sea and
South China Sea. But the U.S. and China cooperate on issues like
climate change and counter-terrorism, and China has supported U.S.
led efforts to contain North Korea's and Iran's nuclear programs.
In the 1970s, average Chinese aspired to buy what were called the
four musts: a bicycle, a radio, a wristwatch and a sewing machine.
By the 1980s, that list included a washing machine and a television,
and today people aspire to afford cars and international vacations.
This growth in incomes over the past 40 years has lifted 500 million
people in China out of poverty. The Chinese are becoming a true
middle class in a global sense, earning more than India, Africa and
much of the Asia-Pacific but less than Europe and the U.S., as the
graph below shows. The chart shows global wealth broken down by
decile, or every 10 percent of the world wealth distribution.
But of course, averaging things obscures the real situation for a lot of
people. China is now one of the worlds more unequal countries.
Much of the wealth and the countrys new crop of millionaires is
concentrated on the eastern coast, while in Chinas interior hundreds
of millions of people are still basically subsistence farmers.
Here's a map that shows how that wealth is concentrated. The darker
blue areas along the coast are the cities of Beijing and Tianjin in the
north, and the city of Shanghai in the middle, where average incomes
are more than three times as much as the interior:
In fact, Chinese call the period of history between 1839, when China
lost parts of its territory to foreign countries in the first Opium War,
and 1949, when the Communist revolution occurred, The Century of
Humiliation. This memory of humiliation at the hands of foreign
powers often goes hand-in-hand in China with nationalism and antiforeign sentiment.
So restoring China's international luster is a priority of the
government and regular people alike. However, most Chinese are still
far more concerned with everyday challenges, like housing prices and
job opportunities.
For most people, scandals that impact daily life like villages with
soaring cancer rates, or tainted infant formula are more keenly felt
than political issues. In fact, when Chinese gather to protest, the
cause is often pollution,working conditions or real estate prices.
You may have heard recently that the Chinese economy has some
problems. That's true, but it also still has a lot of potential.
Chinas growth is slowing down. Following decades of double-digit
growth, Chinas economic growth slowed to 7.7 percent last year, and
shows signs of decelerating further. This has countries around the
world worried, especially countries that export a lot of resources to
China, like Australia or Brazil. But for China, the growth slowdown is
not, in itself, necessarily a bad thing.
For one thing, slowing down is pretty natural after so many years of
rapid growth. Chinas growth has been, in every sense, extraordinary.
The country experienced an eight-fold increase in living standards in
30 years an increase that took the U.S. 122 years and Japan about
80. As economist Barry Naughton puts it, Chinas growth is slowing
in part because it has graduated early.
As Chinas economy has developed, the wages its workers earn have
risen, too. This is great for average Chinese it means they can
afford better food, houses, cars and health care but it also means
that low-cost manufacturing jobs are tending to leave China for
lower-cost countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, even Mexico. China
has also exhausted most of what economists call catch-up growth
from acquiring the technologies of more advanced markets. As
countries catch up and get richer, their growth just tends to slow.
The problem is where China chooses to go from here. The country
needs to develop new sources of growth that are consistent with being
a wealthier country, with a more skilled and higher paid workforce.
But China's progress toward this goal is uneven and uncertain. China
wants to keep its population fully employed. But instead of putting
energy into finding new sources of growth for the economy, the
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/debt_and_not_muc
h_deleveraging
abroad programs, co-produced movies, military exercises, counterterrorism efforts, and joint studies of disease.
Some parts of the U.S.-China relationship are troubled and
adversarial for example, it's not yet clear how the countries will
handle rising tensions over hacking attacks and the looming threat of
cyber warfare, or territorial disputes in the South and East China Sea.
The countries have some significant economic disputes. U.S.
politicians decried China's recent devaluation of its currency
though China claimed the move was actually directed at reforming
the way it manages its currency, in line with international
recommendations. The U.S. business community protests that the
playing field in China for local and foreign businesses is far from
even, and some have begun pushing for the idea of reciprocity that
when China bans a U.S. business, the U.S. should begin banning
Chinese businesses, too.
The U.S. and China also have significant ideological differences that
make the relationship hard to navigate. Chinas tight state control on
religion, the press and democracy rankle Americans. These conflicts
have only gotten worse under Xi Jinping, who has led prosecutions
of lawyers, journalists, NGO workers and foreign business people for
failing to fall in line.
The idea that the political system in China, the second-largest
economy in the world and the most populous country in the world, "is
moving in a direction that is so antithetical to American values is a
scary thought," says Kenneth Lieberthal, a senior fellow at the
Brookings Institution.
Overall, the countries have basic conflict over the how much a
government should interfere in a society, says Kennedy of CSIS.
Big global issues and regional issues become more manageable when
the U.S. and China actively cooperate or at least work in parallel, and
become less manageable and far more dangerous if the U.S. and
China do not cooperate, says Lieberthal of Brookings. While the
record is mixed, on things like counter-terrorism, climate and global
health issues, the cooperation exceeds the competition.
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