Speed studies

includes data analysis,

spot speed, average speed, &
measuring sight distance
February 2009

Speed, Travel Time, and Delay

Studies
Spot Speed: speed of vehicles measured at
a particular point along the road
Average travel speed: speed including all
delays and travel time

Average Speed
Total time to traverse link = 140 sec
Distance = 2192 feet
Average speed = _2192 feet = 15.6 ft/sec (23.0 mph)
140 sec
30.0

25.0

Speed (ft/sec
c)

20.0

15.0

10 0
10.0

5.0

2192 feet
0.0
0

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140

Seconds

Travel Time and Delay

Studies to estimate the average running
times (and delays) of vehicle through a
road section

Determine operating efficiency of a route

Identify problem delay locations
Evaluate user benefits of road improvements
Collect link-node times for network planning
models

Travel-Time Study Uses and

C ll ti
Collection
Uses:
identify problem locations
Specifically looks at delay
Measure arterial LOS
Input to traffic assignment models
Economic analysis of reduced travel time
Measure of congestion
Before and after studies to assess
improvements
Input to air quality models

Study Procedure
Test Vehicle:
Floating Car
Average Car
Moving Car

No Test Vehicles:
License plate studies
Interviews

 Floating Car: measure the time to

traverse a test section while overtaking
and being overtaken by an equal number
of vehicles
Pass as many cars as pass the test car
record travel time and distance to calculate average
speed
can also
l record
d stopped
t
dd
delay
l separately
t l

 Average Car: measure the time to

traverse a test section traveling at the
average speed of the traffic stream (highly
subjective)

Driver mimic average

g road conditions
Easier than floating car but driver interprets average conditions
record travel time and distance to calculate average speed
can also record stopped
pp delay
y separately
p
y

 License
ce se Plate
ate Method:
et od it p
provides
o des
information about travel time and delay. It
provide information about circulation
also p
patterns. It relies on vehicle matching
y
from observations at two synchronized
locations. Often done using video
cameras.

Spot Speed Studies

Speed Limit Effectiveness Studies

Establish Trends
Design Impacts (SSD)
Traffic Control Placement and timing
Collision Study with Speed Cause
Investigate speed complaints

10

Collection of spot speeds

Collect during
g time period representative of desired
outcome
Usually cannot collect all vehicles
Random sample

11

Location & Time

Depends on purpose
Time:
Depends
D
d on purpose
Free-flow: off-peak
Time period corresponding to complaint

12

Study Layout
Vertical
Reference Point
End Timing

Vertical
Reference Point

Study Length
Approaching Vehicle

Observer
X

Start Timing

13

Recommended Study Lengths

Traffic Stream Average
Speed

Recommended Study
Length (feet)

Below 25 mph

88

25-40 mph

176

Above 40 mph

264
14

Vehicle Speed Calculation

V= spot speed (mph)

V
D= length (ft)

D
V
1.47t

t = elapsed time (sec.)

1.47=
1
47= constant that converts feet per second to
miles per hour

15

Data Analysis
Transportation studies often require analysis of
data
Large
g datasets
Only collecting a sample of a larger population
Use of statistics to ensure:

Results are accurate and meaningful

Correct sample
p size
Accurate use of statistical tests
Confidence in interpretation of results
16

Random Variables

Sampling population
Too large to measure all
S
Sample
l smaller
ll number
b tto representt
Population should be sampled randomly to
prevent bias
Biased sampling: sampling all red sports cars
in a spot speed study
Random sampling: sampling every 5th vehicle
17

Other Statistics
Generally assume spot speeds are
normally distributed
Assume sufficient samples are collected
Should be able to calculate mean,
standard
t d dd
deviation,
i ti
etc.
t b
based
d on
assumption of normality

18

Population Vs
Vs. Sample
63 mph
62 mph

51 mph

57 mph
59 mph

50 mph

55 mph
43 mph

43 mph
63 mph

22 mph
47 mph
h

53 mph
51mph

55 mph

62 mph
55 mph

42 mph
42 mph

47 mph

56 mph

36 mph
49 mph

51 mph

39 mph

53 mph

41 mph
65 mph

61 mph

Population

70 mph

Sample

19

Collection of spot
p speeds
p
Systematic Errors and Solutions
Error looking
g for fastest vehicle
Solution Sample every nth vehicle
Error too many heavy vehicle measurements
Solution same as above sample every nth
vehicle
Error
E
Inclusion
I l i off vehicle
hi l ffollowing
ll i platoon
l t
leader
Solution Don
Dontt include vehicles following too
closely (200 if < 40 mph, and 350 otherwise)
20

Frequency Distribution Table for Actual

Data Versus Expected Normal Distribution
35%

Normal

30%

Data

Fre
equency

25%
20%

15%
10%

5%
0%
27 5
27.5

32 5
32.5

37 5
37.5

42 5
42.5

47 5
47.5

52 5
52.5

57 5
57.5

62 5
62.5

67 5
67.5

Speed (mph)

21

Normal Distribution

Bell shaped
Symmetric about (mean)
X ~ N(
N(,
2)
Completely described by mean and variance

Image source:
http://library.thinkquest.org/
10030/7ndndpnd.htm
22

Dispersion
Same mean
Speeds 15 mph and 75 mph
(15 + 75)/2 = 45 mph

Speeds 44 and 46 mph

((44 + 46)/2
) = 45 mph
p

But very different ranges of values

Variance and standard deviation
Magnitude of variation around mean
23

STD

Standard deviation is square root of variance

Equation from Roess et al

24

Standard deviation

s2 = 599.7 = 85.7
(7-1)
s = 85.70.5 = 9.25 mph
Mean is 24.6 mph with std of 9.25 mph

25

Confidence Intervals (normal dist)

How confident are we in our estimate of a statistic? (i.e. mean)

Resampling a population would give us a slightly different mean
Standard error of the mean (E)

= X E,
E with 68.3%
68 3% confidence
= X 1.96E, with 95% confidence
= X 3.0E, with 99.7% confidence

Equation from Roess et al

26

Confidence Intervals (normal dist)

Example: Mean = 45.5 mph, standard

deviation = 4.5, what is the 95%
confidence interval, N = 67
E = __ =___4.5___ = 0.55
05
05
N0.5
(67)0.5

27

Sample Size
Selection of sample size depends on
desired confidence level
N = minimum sample size at selected
confidence level
Z = number of standard deviation for
confidence level (1.64 for 90%, see table
4.1 page 88 of text)

= standard deviation (mph)

d = limit of acceptable error in average
speed estimate

28

Example: Sample Size

An engineer wishes to determine whether vehicles are
traveling at the posted speed limit for a school zone
Desired standard deviation is 7 mph
Limit of acceptable error = 1.5 mph
Desired confidence level is 90%
How many samples need to be collected?
N = (Z)
(Z )2 = (1.64*7)
(1 64*7)2 = 58.57
58 57 vehicles
hi l = 58 vehicles
hi l
( d )2
( 1.5 )

29

Example: Sample Size

What if a confidence level of 99% is desired?
N = (Z)2 = (2.58*7)2 = 144.96 = 145 vehicles
( d )2
( 1.5 )

30

Spot Speed Study Metrics

Mean: average
Mode: value that appears the most
Pace:
P
10 mile
il iincrementt iin which
hi h th
the
highest percentage of drivers is observed
45 to 55 mph

85th Percentile speed

15th percentile speed
31

Mean (Average Speed)

Larger sample size = greater probability
that calculated mean is not significantly
different from true mean

32

Mean
Speeds = 22, 15, 11, 25, 31, 41, 27 (mph)
Mean = 22 + 15 + 11 + 25 + 31 + 41 + 27
7
= 24.6 mph

33

Other Metrics
Range: highest and lowest value
observed
Minimum: 5 mph
Maximum: 65 mph

34

Spot
p Speed
p
Study
y of 100 Vehicles

Raw Data for 16 vehicles

Data for 185 Vehicles by 5

mph range
35

Modal: Value that occurs the most

frequently in a sample of spot speeds

Mode is 53 mph

36

Pace: range in which most vehicles

are found (i.e. 10 mph hour range)

47

92
104

37

Distribution

10 vehicles from data collection

were traveling from 25 to < 30 mph

38

Fraction
F
ti in
i 25 to
t < 30 bin
bi = # off vehicles
hi l in
i
bin/total # of vehicles (80) = __10__ = 0.13 (13%)
80
39

This should = 1.0 (100%)

40

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00
22.5

27.5

32.5

37.5

42.5

47.5

52.5

Shows fraction of vehicles in each speed

p
bin
frequency distribution
About 12% in speed bin 27.5

41

Groupp 15 to < 35 has 0 +0.06 + 0.13 + 0.19 = 0.38 or

38% of vehicles are found in those 4 bins or 38% of
vehicles were traveling between 15 and < 35 mph

42

ith percentile spot speed

Spot speed below which i% of vehicles are
traveling
50th percentile: 50% of vehicles are
traveling at or below that speed (this is
p
)
also the median speed)
85th Percentile: 85% of vehicles traveling
p
15% traveling
g over
at or below that speed;
that speed
43

Cumulative Frequency Distribution

frequency

0.9

0.8

100% of vehicles
are below 55 mph

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

01
0.1

0
15 to < 20

20 to < 25

25 to < 30

30 to < 35

35 to < 40

40 to < 45

45 to < 50

50 to < 55

44

frequency
1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

01
0.1

0
15 to < 20

20 to < 25

25 to < 30

30 to < 35

35 to < 40

What is the 85th ppercentile speed?

p

40 to < 45

45 to < 50

Would have been easier if we had used smaller

speed bins

50 to < 55

45